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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Regional Hybrid Energy Systems Technoeconomic Analysis

This presentation summarizes the final outputs from a multi-year HFTO-funded project that evaluated the potential for hybridized nuclear power plants to economically produce hydrogen. The focus of this presentation is on the interactions between the electricity system modeling and hydrogen system optimization and the resulting figures of merit. This project partnered with Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Electric Power Research Institute, and Xcel Energy.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDROGEN↗

Non-growing Season Plant Nutrient Uptake Controls Arctic Tundra Vegetation Composition: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE-Arctic publication: Riley et al. (2021) “Non-growing season plant nutrient uptake controls Arctic tundra vegetation composition under future climate” (Riley et al., 2021). The dataset contains “ecosys” model outputs reported in Riley et al. (2021) that examines the role of non-growing season (NGS) nutrient dynamics on 21st century vegetation composition. The study highlighted the importance of these nutrient dynamics on the emergent plant functional type distributions, focusing on their role in shrub expansion. The study showed that ignoring NGS nutrient dynamics led to a dramatic under-prediction of shrub expansion by year 2100, motivating the need to include these processes in Earth System Models. Included are modeled net primary production (NPP) and nitrogen (N) uptake for two scenarios: (1) baseline and (2) no NGS N uptake. The output is provided (1) at 25 km resolution across the North American tundra; (2) for years 2012 through 2100; and (3) PFT-specific. Dataset contains 20 NetCDF files in a zip file and one pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How the INCOSE Model-Based Capability Matrix Has Steered Model-Based Systems Engineering Transformation at NASA

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is embarking on new, complex, and diverse missions to accomplish its scientific and exploration objectives, and it views digital transformation as a key enabler for those missions. The NASA Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Lead-ership Team (MLT) is leading the charge in the digital transformation of the systems engineering domain at NASA, and it is using the INCOSE Model-Based Capability Matrix (MBCM) as a roadmap. This paper discusses the modifications and tailoring of the INCOSE MBCM (Hale & Hoheb, 2020) for use at NASA, the process the team has taken on multiple rounds of assessment, findings to date, and work products that have been generated as a result of the assessment. The paper will also discuss findings and potential changes that should be made to the original product.

MBSE↗

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A system for model access in tunnels with an unbreathable test medium

In many specialty wind tunnels, test gases other than ambient air are used to meet special testing requirements. A typical example is the use of freon as the test gas to achieve a realistic density ratio between gas and model for exploring flutter stability boundaries. Another example is the use of pressurized air to elevate the stream density and enhance Reynolds number or dynamic pressure simulation. Such specialty tunnels require a system of access o the model which will allow services and changes to the model without exposing personnel to the unnatural and perhaps hostile environment or requiring the venting and purging of the entire tunnel circuit. This paper will describe the plenum and model access systems for the forthcoming U.S. National Transonic facility where gaseous nitrogen (N2) at temperatures between 338 and 78 K and at pressures to 9 bars is used as the test medium. The operation at cold temperatures imposes some additional requirements which make the access systems more difficult to design and time consuming to operate than for conventional wind tunnels.

Howell, R. R.↗

A Markov framework for generalized post-event systems recovery modeling: From single to multihazards

State-dependent models can be used to represent the system recovery process as a series of stochastic transitions from lower to higher functional states. However, the applications of these models have been limited in scope and there is a lack of a generalized recovery modeling framework. A generalized framework would permit a robust forecasting of systems and system-of-systems recovery under multiple hazards, and more broadly, would contribute to community disaster preparedness. This paper develops a generalized post hazard-event recovery modeling framework based on state-dependent Markov-type processes. We then apply the proposed framework to solve a spectrum of problems that range from hind-casting single-system recovery following a single hazard event to forecasting post-event trajectories under multiple hazards and modeling the recovery of a system-of-systems. First, Markov chains are used to hind-cast the observed recovery for a portfolio of buildings affected by the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake. Next, Markov processes are used to formulate a parametric post hazard-event recovery model, which can be updated using Bayesian statistics when relevant datasets become available. Semi-Markov processes are then used to develop a more general model of single hazard recovery, which accounts for the intensity of the loading and level of damage caused by the event. Semi-Markov processes with non-renewal features are then used to account for multihazard interactions in a post-event recovery model, and applied to a case study that involves a community in Charleston, South Carolina. Lastly, Markov-type processes are combined with Bayesian networks to model the recovery of residential, commercial, educational, and industrial buildings (system-of-systems) following a hazard event. Overall, these applications demonstrate the versatility of the Markov framework towards handling recovery problems with varying levels of complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Identifiability Of Systems With Modeling Errors

Advances in theory of modeling errors reported. Recent paper on errors in mathematical models of deterministic linear or weakly nonlinear systems. Extends theoretical work described in NPO-16661 and NPO-16785. Presents concrete way of accounting for difference in structure between mathematical model and physical process or system that it represents.

Hadaegh, Yadolah "fred"↗

Assessing the sensitivity of aerosol mass budget and effective radiative forcing to horizontal grid spacing in E3SMv1 using a regional refinement approach

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols have important impacts on air quality and the Earth–atmospheric energy balance. However, as computing power is limited, Earth system models generally use coarse spatial grids and parameterize finer-scale atmospheric processes. These parameterizations and the simulation of atmospheric aerosols are often sensitive to model horizontal resolutions. Understanding the sensitivities is necessary for the development of Earth system models at higher resolutions with the deployment of more powerful supercomputers. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1, this study investigates the impact of horizontal grid spacing on the simulated aerosol mass budget, aerosol–cloud interactions, and the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) over the contiguous United States. We examine the resolution sensitivity by comparing the nudged simulation results for 2016 from the low-resolution model (LR) and the regional refinement model (RRM). As expected, the simulated emissions of natural dust, sea salt, and marine organic matter are substantially higher in the RRM than in the LR. In addition, RRM simulates stronger aqueous-phase production of sulfate through the enhanced oxidation of sulfur dioxide by hydrogen peroxide due to increased cloud liquid water content. In contrast, the gas-phase chemical production of sulfate is slightly suppressed. The RRM resolves more large-scale precipitation and produces less convective precipitation than the LR, leading to increased (decreased) aerosol wet scavenging by large-scale (convective) precipitation. Regarding aerosol effects on clouds, RRM produces larger temporal variabilities in the large-scale liquid cloud fractions than LR, resulting in increased microphysical cloud processing of aerosols (more interstitial aerosols are converted to cloud-borne aerosols via aerosol activation) in RRM. Water vapor condensation is also enhanced in RRM compared to LR. Consequently, the RRM simulation produces more cloud droplets, a larger cloud droplet radius, a higher liquid water path, and a larger cloud optical depth than the LR simulation. A comparison of the present-day and pre-industrial simulations indicates that, for this contiguous United States domain, the higher-resolution increases ERFaer at the top of the model by about 12 %, which is mainly attributed to the strengthened indirect effect associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Evaluation of the Evolution to an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System

In 2018, as result of a recommendation from the National Academies, NASA began to prototype an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS). The purpose of the IASMS is to enable innovative aviation operations and greater heterogeneity of the overall National Airspace (NAS) by automating much of the safety monitoring, assessment, and risk and hazard mitigation function present in today’s Safety Management Systems (SMS). NASA has worked together with early industry collaborators to understand how such a system might work and has published several early Concepts of Operation (ConOps) and other technical memoranda that illustrate the primary considerations for selected aviation domains. The shift from an SMS to an IASMS is predicated on several assumptions, including: 1.) automating safety functions will decrease the amount of time necessary for risk and hazard identification and analysis, making it more likely that safety concerns are understood ‘in-time’ to mitigate them, and 2.) an IASMS will allow easier tailoring of safety management processes to the particular risks and hazards inherent to that aviation operation. In this paper, we begin to validate these assumptions through the use of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE).

IASMS↗

Force Measurement Improvements to the National Transonic Facility Sidewall Model Support System

The National Transonic Facility is a transonic pressurized cryogenic facility. The development of the high Reynolds number semi-span capability has advanced over the years to include transonic active flow control and powered testing using the sidewall model support system. While this system can be used in total temperatures down to -250Â F for conventional unpowered configurations, it is limited to temperatures above -60Â F when used with powered models that require the use of the high-pressure air delivery system. Thermal instabilities and non-repeatable mechanical arrangements revealed several data quality shortfalls by the force and moment measurement system. Recent modifications to the balance cavity recirculation system have improved the temperature stability of the balance and metric model-to-balance hardware. Changes to the mechanical assembly of the high-pressure air delivery system, particularly hardware that interfaces directly with the model and balance, have improved the repeatability of the force and moment measurement system. Drag comparisons with the high-pressure air system removed will also be presented in this paper.

Goodliff, Scott L.↗

The Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment model benchmarking system

NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) integrates field and airborne data into modeling and synthesis activities for understanding Arctic and Boreal ecosystem dynamics. The ABoVE Benchmarking System (ABS) is an operational software package to evaluate terrestrial biosphere models against key indicators of Arctic and Boreal ecosystem dynamics, i.e.: carbon biogeochemistry, vegetation, permafrost, hydrology, and disturbance. The ABS utilizes satellite remote sensing data, airborne data, and field data from ABoVE as well as collaborating research networks in the region, e.g.: the Permafrost Carbon Network, the International Soil Carbon Network, the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database, AmeriFlux sites, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2, and the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission. The ABS is designed to be interactive for researchers interested in having their models accurately represent observations of key Arctic indicators: a user submits model results to the system, the system evaluates the model results against a set of Arctic-Boreal benchmarks outlined in the ABoVE Concise Experiment Plan, and the user then receives a quantitative scoring of model strengths and deficiencies through a web interface. This interactivity allows model developers to iteratively improve their model for the Arctic-Boreal Region by evaluating results from successive model versions. We show here, for illustration, the improvement of the Lund–Potsdam–Jena-Wald Schnee und Landschaft (LPJwsl) version model through the ABoVE ABS as a new permafrost module is coupled to the existing model framework. The ABS will continue to incorporate new benchmarks that address indicators of Arctic-Boreal ecosystem dynamics as they become available.

ABoVE↗

An EMTP system level model of the PMAD DC test bed

A power management and distribution direct current (PMAD DC) test bed was set up at the NASA Lewis Research Center to investigate Space Station Freedom Electric Power Systems issues. Efficiency of test bed operation significantly improves with a computer simulation model of the test bed as an adjunct tool of investigation. Such a model is developed using the Electromagnetic Transients Program (EMTP) and is available to the test bed developers and experimenters. The computer model is assembled on a modular basis. Device models of different types can be incorporated into the system model with only a few lines of code. A library of the various model types is created for this purpose. Simulation results and corresponding test bed results are presented to demonstrate model validity.

Dravid, Narayan V.↗

An EMTP system level model of the PMAD DC test bed

A power management and distribution direct current (PMAD DC) test bed was set up at the NASA Lewis Research Center to investigate Space Station Freedom Eelectric Power Systems issues. Efficiency of test bed operation significantly improves with a computer simulation model of the test bed as an adjunct tool of investigation. Such a model is developed using the Electromagnetic Transients Program (EMTP) and is available to the test bed developers and experimenters. The computer model is assembled on a modular basis. Device models of different types can be incorporated into the system model with only a few lines of code. A library of the various model types is created for this purpose. Simulation results and corresponding test bed results are presented to demonstrate model validity.

Dravid, Narayan V.↗

Energy Systems Process Modeling, Analysis, and Experiment Design [Slides]

This presentation is to be used in Feynman Center outreach discussions. It describes public information about some Los Alamos interests and activities in modeling and analysis in energy systems including carbon capture and direct air capture. In particular this addresses the CCSI2 project’s open-source toolkit and ongoing partnerships, as well as summarizing the published Feynman Center capability snapshot on direct air capture.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) airborne field campaign data products between 2013 and 2018

Airborne measurements are pivotal for providing detailed, spatiotemporally resolved information about atmospheric parameters and aerosol and cloud properties, thereby enhancing our understanding of dynamic atmospheric processes. For 30 years, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supported an instrumented Gulfstream 1 (G-1) aircraft for atmospheric field campaigns. Data from the final decade of G-1 operations were archived by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center and made publicly available at no cost to all registered users. To ensure a consistent data format and to improve the accessibility of the ARM airborne data, an integrated dataset was recently developed covering the final 6 years of G-1 operations (2013 to 2018, https://doi.org/10.5439/1999133; Mei and Gaustad, 2024). The integrated dataset includes data collected from 236 flights (766.4 h), which covered the Arctic, the US Southern Great Plains (SGP), the US West Coast, the eastern North Atlantic (ENA), the Amazon Basin in Brazil, and the Sierras de Córdoba range in Argentina. These comprehensive data streams provide much-needed insight into spatiotemporal variability in the thermodynamic quantities and aerosol and cloud properties for addressing essential science questions in Earth system process studies. This paper describes the DOE ARM merged G-1 datasets, including information on the acquisition, data collection challenges and future potentials, and quality control processes. It further illustrates the usage of this merged dataset to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) with the Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Geologic CO 2 Migration Pathways in Farnsworth Field, NW Anadarko Basin

This study reports on analyses of natural, geologic CO 2 migration paths in Farnsworth Oil Field, northern Texas, where CO 2 was injected into the Pennsylvanian Morrow B reservoir as part of enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration efforts. We interpret 2D and 3D seismic reflection datasets of the study site, which is located on the western flank of the Anadarko basin, and compare our seismic interpretations with results from a tracer study. Petroleum system models are developed to understand the petroleum system and petroleum- and CO 2 -migration pathways. We find no evidence of seismically resolvable faults in Farnsworth Field, but interpret a karst structure, erosional structures, and incised valleys. These interpretations are compared with results of a Morrow B well-to-well tracer study that suggests that inter-well flow is up-dip or lateral. Southeastward fluid flow is inhibited by dip direction, thinning, and draping of the Morrow B reservoir over a deeper, eroded formation. Petroleum system models predict a deep basin-ward increase in temperature and maturation of the source rocks. In the northwestern Anadarko Basin, petroleum migration was generally up-dip with local exceptions; the Morrow B sandstone was likely charged by formations both below and overlying the reservoir rock. Based on this analysis, we conclude that CO 2 escape in Farnsworth Field via geologic pathways such as tectonic faults is unlikely. Abandoned or aged wellbores remain a risk for CO 2 escape from the reservoir formation and deserve further monitoring and research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Model Sensitivities of Biomass-Burning Aerosol Chemical Aging, Sulfate Formation, and Cloud Droplet Activation in the Southeastern Atlantic Using CESM and E3SM

Biomass-burning smoke drives large uncertainty in climate projections of the Earth's radiative balance. This is due to the chemical and physical evolution of smoke and its impact on clouds and radiation. Here we focus on the southeastern Atlantic region and its inflow of African biomass-burning smoke during August 2017. We evaluate smoke properties and processes in two coupled earth-system models, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). These are compared against in situ aircraft observations from two field campaigns, ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017). Observations reveal an increase and subsequent decrease in smoke mean diameter, and a steady decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon aerosol (BC) (OA:BC) over 4–12 days of aging, neither captured by the base models. Implementation of a photolytic loss scheme for secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—as a proxy for other heterogeneous volatilization chemistry—and a ∼1-day conversion for primary OA to SOA significantly improves the representation of this loss. In the boundary layer, both models show dimethyl sulfide driving a large increase in the sulfate aerosol mass fraction from the free troposphere, which is consistent with observations. Finally, models tend to underpredict cloud droplet number concentration partially due to weak modeled turbulent updraft strength, and model performance improves when the parameterized turbulent updraft strength is increased substantially. These results are expected to provide insights into future model development to reduce climate model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗