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At least 1,495 records · Page 83
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Search for exotic decays of the Higgs boson to a pair of pseudoscalars in the $μμ bb$ and $ττ bb$ final states

A search for exotic decays of the Higgs boson (H) with a mass of 125 GeV to a pair of light pseudoscalars a 1 is performed in final states where one pseudoscalar decays to two quarks and the other to a pair of muons or leptons. A data sample of proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 recorded with the CMS detector is analyzed. No statistically significant excess is observed over the standard model backgrounds. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level (CL) on the Higgs boson branching fraction to μ μ b b and to τ τ b b via a pair of a 1 s. The limits depend on the pseudoscalar mass m a 1 and are observed to be in the range (0.17–3.3) x 10 -4 and (1.7–7.7) x 10 -2 in the μ μ b b and τ τ b b final states, respectively. In the framework of models with two Higgs doublets and a complex scalar singlet (2HDM+S), the results of the two final states are combined to determine upper limits on the branching fraction ${\mathcal {B}}(\text {H} \rightarrow \text {a}_{1} \text {a}_{1} \rightarrow \ell \ell \text{ b } \text{ b})$ at 95% CL, with ℓ being a muon or a τ lepton. For different types of 2HDM+S, upper bounds on the branching fraction ${\mathcal {B}}(\text {H} \rightarrow \text {a}_{1} \text {a}_{1} )$ are extracted from the combination of the two channels. In most of the Type II 2HDM+S parameter space ${\mathcal {B}}(\text {H} \rightarrow \text {a}_{1} \text {a}_{1} )$, values above 0.23 are excluded at 95% CL for m a 1 values between 15 and 60 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Validation Database for Fires Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) database for fires involving liquefied natural gas (LNG) and processing fuels at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model's suitability to predict thermal exclusion zones resulting from a fire. The database includes measurements from pool fire, jet fire, and fireball experiments which are provided in a spreadsheet. Users are to enter model results into the spreadsheet which automatically generates statistical performance measures and graphical comparisons with the experimental data. The intent of this document is to provide a description of the experiments and of the procedure required to carry out the validation portion of the MEP. In addition, the statistical performance measures, measurements for comparisons, and parameter variation are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elimination LArTPC Simulation Uncertainty

Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPC) are essential for detecting muons and neutrinos by capturing electrons released during particle collisions, which drift toward wire planes under an electric field and induce currents measured to reconstruct particle paths. However, LArTPCs face challenges from effects such as electron-ion recombination, electron diffusion, and electron attenuation, complicating data simulation. The Short Baseline Neutrino (SNB) detector aims to measure neutrinos before oscillation occurs. To bridge the gap between simulation and actual data, we propose modifying the amplitude and width of signals on the TPC wires, addressing uncertainties by adjusting signal characteristics to better match observed data. A Gaussian fit to current waveforms produces hits with associated charge and width, and by comparing data and simulated values, discrepancies highlight areas where the model fails. Initial results indicate the current modification algorithm may increase divergence between simulation and data, necessitating further refinement. A discovered bug in the WireModMakeHist_plug.cpp file, which incorrectly computed simulation and data ratios, underscores the need for precise algorithm adjustments. Future work involves correcting code errors, fine-tuning the model, and conducting multiple simulation runs to enhance statistical confidence and reduce uncertainties, ultimately aiming for accurate LArTPC operation and reliable neutrino detection.

Mkrtchyan, Ka'ren↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Neutrino Simulation Modeling with MARLEY: Insights from the NNSA-MSIIP Internship

Core-collapse supernovae are intense sources of tens-of-MeV neutrinos. However, there is no experimental data to validate the current event generator MARLEY (Model of Argon Reaction Low Energy Yields) that can model supernova neutrinos. To validate the model, I developed a new muon capture feature within the MARLEY simulation framework by coding key functions in C++, Python, and ROOT. I generated and analyzed one million simulated muon capture events and comparing the results to experimental data. To improve the model, I worked on optimizing the model’s parameters to improve its precision using statistical methods.

Wong, Baker [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Validation Database for Fires Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities (Version 2)

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) database for fires involving liquefied natural gas (LNG) and processing fuels at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model’s suitability to predict thermal exclusion zones resulting from a fire. The database includes measurements from pool fire, jet fire, and fireball experiments which are provided in a spreadsheet. Users are to enter model results into the spreadsheet which automatically generates statistical performance measures and graphical comparisons with the experimental data. The intent of this document is to provide a description of the experiments and of the procedure required to carry out the validation portion of the MEP. In addition, the statistical performance measures, measurements for comparisons, and parameter variation are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Social Disparities of Pain and Pain Intensity Among Women Diagnosed With Early Stage Breast Cancer

Background: Breast cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers among women in the United States and pain is the most common side effect of breast cancer and its treatment. Yet, the relationships between social determinants of pain and pain experience/intensity remain under-investigated. We examined the associations between social determinants of pain both at the individual level and the neighborhood level to understand how social conditions are associated with pain perception among early stage breast cancer patients. Methods: We conducted integrated statistical analysis of 1,191 women with early stage breast cancer treated at a large cancer center in Memphis, Tennessee. Combining electronic health records, patient-reported data and census data regarding residential address at the time of first diagnosis, we evaluated the relationships between social determinants and pain perception. Pain responses were self-reported by a patient as a numerical rating scale score at the patient’s initial diagnosis and follow-up clinical visits. We implemented two sets of statistical analyses of the zero-inflated Poisson model and estimated the associations between neighborhood poverty prevalence and breast cancer pain intensity. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, cancer stage, and chemotherapy, pain perception was significantly associated with poverty and blight level of the neighborhood. Results: Among women living in the highest-poverty areas, the odds of reporting pain were 2.48 times higher than those in the lowest-poverty area. Women living in the highest-blight area had 5.43 times higher odds of reporting pain than those in the lowest-blight area. Neighborhood-level social determinants were significantly associated with pain intensity among women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Conclusions: Distressed neighborhood conditions are significantly associated with higher pain perception. Breast cancer patients living in socio-economically disadvantaged neighborhoods and in poor environmental conditions reported higher pain severity compared to patients from less distressed neighborhoods. Therefore, post-diagnosis pain treatment design needs to be tailored to the social determinants of the breast cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Natural Fracture Pattern Development Using 3D Coupled Numerical Model: Mechanics and Diagenesis

In the earth's crust, while tectonic processes can mechanically create natural fractures, cementation can simultaneously grow on the surfaces of the fractures. This crystallization can affect the growth of the fractures. To more accurately address the modeling of natural fracture development, both mechanical deformation and chemical diagenesis should be carried out in an integrated manner. Here, we achieve this with a three-dimensional (3D) simulator that couples mechanical and chemical processes for natural fracture pattern development in layer confined situations. Tectonic loading over geologic time is mimicked by displacement driven boundary conditions in a 3D displacement discontinuity method (DDM) scheme. Quartz diagenesis competes with mechanical fracture opening, resulting in three different cementation conditions - open, bridging or fully infilled – which define fracture element stiffness that is used as feedback within the 3D-DDM code during propagation. An important milestone of this work is that this coupled structural diagenetic model can reproduce power-law aperture population statistics which cannot be generated using mechanics alone. More accurately estimated mechanical fracture apertures and their cementation condition is a critical step toward better permeability estimation and fluid path analysis for subsurface reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A compute-bound formulation of Galerkin model reduction for linear time-invariant dynamical systems

This work aims to advance computational methods for projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) of linear time-invariant (LTI) dynamical systems. For such systems, current practice relies on ROM formulations expressing the state as a rank-1 tensor (i.e., a vector), leading to computational kernels that are memory bandwidth bound and, therefore, ill-suited for scalable performance on modern architectures. This weakness can be particularly limiting when tackling many-query studies, where one needs to run a large number of simulations. This work introduces a reformulation, called rank-2 Galerkin, of the Galerkin ROM for LTI dynamical systems which converts the nature of the ROM problem from memory bandwidth to compute bound. We present the details of the formulation and its implementation, and demonstrate its utility through numerical experiments using, as a test case, the simulation of elastic seismic shear waves in an axisymmetric domain. We quantify and analyze performance and scaling results for varying numbers of threads and problem sizes. In conclusion, we present an end-to-end demonstration of using the rank-2 Galerkin ROM for a Monte Carlo sampling study. We show that the rank-2 Galerkin ROM is one order of magnitude more efficient than the rank-1 Galerkin ROM (the current practice) and about 970 times more efficient than the full-order model, while maintaining accuracy in both the mean and statistics of the field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

gcamfaostat: An R package to prepare, process, and synthesize FAOSTAT data for global agroeconomic and multisector dynamic modeling

The gcamfaostat R package is designed for the preparation, processing, and synthesis of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Statistics (FAOSTAT) agroeconomic data. The primary purpose is to facilitate FAOSTAT data use in global economic and multisector dynamic models while ensuring transparency, traceability, and reproducibility. Here, we provide an overview of the development of gcamfaostat (v1.0) and demonstrate its capabilities in generating and maintaining agroeconomic data required for the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Our initiative seeks to enhance the quality and accessibility of data for the global agroeconomic modeling community, with the aim of fostering more robust and harmonized outcomes in a collaborative, efficient, and open-source framework. One of the important features of the package is the possibility to construct the FAO Food Balance Sheets at the disaggregated commodity level (with over 500 commodities), which provides a comprehensive and detailed data input for a variety of analytical and modeling applications. The processed data and visualizations offered by gcamfaostat can also be valuable to a broader audience interested in gaining insights into the intricacies of global agriculture.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel statistical methodology for quantifying the spatial arrangements of axons in peripheral nerves

A thorough understanding of the neuroanatomy of peripheral nerves is required for a better insight into their function and the development of neuromodulation tools and strategies. In biophysical modeling, it is commonly assumed that the complex spatial arrangement of myelinated and unmyelinated axons in peripheral nerves is random, however, in reality the axonal organization is inhomogeneous and anisotropic. Present quantitative neuroanatomy methods analyze peripheral nerves in terms of the number of axons and the morphometric characteristics of the axons, such as area and diameter. In this study, we employed spatial statistics and point process models to describe the spatial arrangement of axons and Sinkhorn distances to compute the similarities between these arrangements (in terms of first- and second-order statistics) in various vagus and pelvic nerve cross-sections. We utilized high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images that have been segmented using a custom-built high-throughput deep learning system based on a highly modified U-Net architecture. Our findings show a novel and innovative approach to quantifying similarities between spatial point patterns using metrics derived from the solution to the optimal transport problem. We also present a generalizable pipeline for quantitative analysis of peripheral nerve architecture. Our data demonstrate differences between male- and female-originating samples and similarities between the pelvic and abdominal vagus nerves.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: N-body mock challenge for the eBOSS emission line galaxy sample

ABSTRACT Cosmological growth can be measured in the redshift space clustering of galaxies targeted by spectroscopic surveys. Accurate prediction of clustering of galaxies will require understanding galaxy physics, which is a very hard and highly non-linear problem. Approximate models of redshift space distortion (RSD) take a perturbative approach to solve the evolution of dark matter and galaxies in the universe. In this paper, we focus on extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic (eBOSS) emission line galaxies (ELGs) that live in intermediate mass haloes. We create a series of mock catalogues using haloes from the Multidark and outer rim dark matter only N-body simulations. Our mock catalogues include various effects inspired by baryonic physics such as assembly bias and the characteristics of satellite galaxies kinematics, dynamics, and statistics deviating from dark matter particles. We analyse these mocks using the TNS RSD model in Fourier space and the convolution Lagrangian perturbation theory (CLPT) in configuration space. We conclude that these two RSD models provide an unbiased measurement of RSD within the statistical error of our mocks. We obtain the conservative theoretical systematic uncertainty of $3.3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, $1.8{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, and $1.5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in fσ8, α∥, and α⊥, respectively, for the TNS and CLPT models. We note that the estimated theoretical systematic error is an order of magnitude smaller than the statistical error of the eBOSS ELG sample and hence are negligible for the purpose of the current eBOSS ELG analysis.

Alam, Shadab↗
DOE OSTI2021

A method for predicting failure statistics for steady state elevated temperature structural components

This paper presents the initial development of a high temperature life prediction method that accounts for the variability in the material properties of Grade 91 steel. The method accounts for material variability by fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to experimental rupture data and accounts for the variability of creep deformation on the steady-state stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure reasonable computational times, the model represents the material as an extremely viscous Stokes fluid with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the stress relaxation problem with a steady, static, instead of transient, analysis. Furthermore, the complete statistical analysis combines this model for creep deformation with a probabilistic model for creep rupture to evaluate the probability of premature failure for a set of sample problems, comparing the predicted failure statistics to the design life predicted by the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code rules.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large-scale Gravitational Lens Modeling with Bayesian Neural Networks for Accurate and Precise Inference of the Hubble Constant

We investigate the use of approximate Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) in modeling hundreds of time delay gravitational lenses for Hubble constant (H 0 ) determination. Here, our BNN was trained on synthetic Hubble Space Telescope quality images of strongly lensed active galactic nuclei with lens galaxy light included. The BNN can accurately characterize the posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters governing the elliptical power-law mass profile in an external shear field. We then propagate the BNN-inferred posterior PDFs into an ensemble H 0 inference, using simulated time delay measurements from a plausible dedicated monitoring campaign. Assuming well-measured time delays and a reasonable set of priors on the environment of the lens, we achieve a median precision of 9.3% per lens in the inferred H 0 . A simple combination of a set of 200 test lenses results in a precision of 0.5 km s –1 Mpc –1 (0.7%), with no detectable bias in this H 0 recovery test. The computation time for the entire pipeline—including the generation of the training set, BNN training and H0 inference—translates to 9 minutes per lens on average for 200 lenses and converges to 6 minutes per lens as the sample size is increased. Being fully automated and efficient, our pipeline is a promising tool for exploring ensemble-level systematics in lens modeling for H 0 inference.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven optimized control of the COVID-19 epidemics

Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within the US to parametrize a model that well describes the propagation of the disease in each area. We then introduce a time-varying control input that represents the level of social distancing imposed on the population of a given area and solve an optimal control problem with the goal of minimizing the impact of social distancing on the economy in the presence of relevant constraints, such as a desired level of suppression for the epidemics at a terminal time. We find that with the exception of the initial time and of the final time, the optimal control input is well approximated by a constant, specific to each area, which contrasts with the implemented system of reopening ‘in phases’. For all the areas considered, this optimal level corresponds to stricter social distancing than the level estimated from data. Proper selection of the time period for application of the control action optimally is important: depending on the particular MSA this period should be either short or long or intermediate. We also consider the case that the transmissibility increases in time (due e.g. to increasingly colder weather), for which we find that the optimal control solution yields progressively stricter measures of social distancing. We finally compute the optimal control solution for a model modified to incorporate the effects of vaccinations on the population and we see that depending on a number of factors, social distancing measures could be optimally reduced during the period over which vaccines are administered to the population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Training custom light curve models of SN Ia subpopulations selected according to host galaxy properties

ABSTRACT Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) cosmology analyses include a luminosity step function in their distance standardization process to account for an observed yet unexplained difference in the post-standardization luminosities of SNe Ia originating from different host galaxy populations [e.g. high-mass ($M \gtrsim 10^{10} \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$) versus low-mass galaxies]. We present a novel method for including host-mass correlations in the SALT3 (Spectral Adaptive Light curve Template 3) light curve model used for standardizing SN Ia distances. We split the SALT3 training sample according to host-mass, training independent models for the low- and high-host-mass samples. Our models indicate that there are different average Si ii spectral feature strengths between the two populations, and that the average spectral energy distribution of SNe from low-mass galaxies is bluer than the high-mass counterpart. We then use our trained models to perform an SN cosmology analysis on the 3-yr spectroscopically confirmed Dark Energy Survey SN sample, treating SNe from low- and high-mass host galaxies as separate populations throughout. We find that our mass-split models reduce the Hubble residual scatter in the sample, albeit at a low statistical significance. We do find a reduction in the mass-correlated luminosity step but conclude that this arises from the model-dependent re-definition of the fiducial SN absolute magnitude rather than the models themselves. Our results stress the importance of adopting a standard definition of the SN parameters (x0, x1, c) in order to extract the most value out of the light curve modelling tools that are currently available and to correctly interpret results that are fit with different models.

Taylor, G. (ORCID:0000000157563259)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of floating-point non-associativity on reproducibility for HPC and deep learning applications

Run to run variability in parallel programs caused by floating-point non-associativity has been known to significantly affect reproducibility in iterative algorithms, due to accumulating errors. Non-reproducibility can critically affect the efficiency and effectiveness of correctness testing for stochastic programs. Recently, the sensitivity of deep learning training and inference pipelines to floating-point non-associativity has been found to sometimes be extreme. It can prevent certification for commercial applications, accurate assessment of robustness and sensitivity, and bug detection. New approaches in scientific computing applications have coupled deep learning models with high-performance computing, leading to an aggravation of debugging and testing challenges. Here we perform an investigation of the statistical properties of floating-point non-associativity within modern parallel programming models, and analyze performance and productivity impacts of replacing atomic operations with deterministic alternatives on GPUs. We examine the recently-added deterministic options in PyTorch within the context of GPU deployment for deep learning, uncovering and quantifying the impacts of input parameters triggering run to run variability and reporting on the reliability and completeness of the documentation. Finally, we evaluate the strategy of exploiting automatic determinism that could be provided by deterministic hardware, using the Groq LPUTM accelerator for inference portions of the deep learning pipeline. We demonstrate the benefits that a hardware-based strategy can provide within reproducibility and correctness efforts.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entropy-based feature selection for capturing impacts in Earth system models with abrupt forcing

This paper presents the development of a new entropy-based feature selection method for identifying and quantifying impacts. Here, impacts are defined as statistically significant differences in spatio-temporal fields when comparing datasets with and without an external forcing in an Earth system model. Temporal feature selection is performed by first computing the cross-fuzzy entropy to quantify similarity of patterns between two datasets and then applying changepoint detection to identify regions of statistically constant entropy. The method is used to capture temperate north surface cooling from a 9-member simulation ensemble of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which injected 10 Tg of SO 2 into the stratosphere. The results estimate a mean difference decrease in near surface air temperature of -0.560 K with a 99% confidence interval between -0.864 K and -0.257 K between April and November of 1992, one year following the eruption. A sensitivity analysis with decreasing SO 2 injection revealed that the impact is statistically significant at 5 Tg but not at 3 Tg. Using identified features, a dependency graph model based on a 9-day lag had significantly fewer nodes than a graph based on monthly means. Furthermore, this demonstrates our method’s ability to perform dimension reduction while still uncovering source-to-impact pathways.

Changepoint detection↗