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NASA NTRS1988

Statistical error analysis in CCD time-resolved photometry with applications to variable stars and quasars

Differential photometric time series obtained from CCD frames are tested for intrinsic variability using a newly developed analysis of variance technique. In general, the objects used for differential photometry will not all be of equal magnitude, so the techniques derived here explicitly correct for differences in the measured variances due to photon statistics. Other random-noise terms are also considered. The technique tests for the presence of intrinsic variability without regard to its random or periodic nature. It is then applied to observations of the variable stars ZZ Ceti and US 943 and the active extragalactic objects OQ 530, US 211, US 844, LB 9743, and OJ 287.

Howell, Steve B.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Gravitational lensing statistics of amplified supernovae

Amplification statistics of gravitationally lensed supernovae can provide a valuable probe of the lensing matter in the universe. A general probability distribution for amplification by compact objects is derived which allows calculation of the lensed fraction of supernovae at or greater than an amplification A and at or less than an apparent magnitude. Comparison of the computed fractions with future results from ongoing supernova searches can lead to determination of the mass density of compact dark matter components with masses greater than about 0.001 solar mass, while the time-dependent amplification (and polarization) of the expanding supernovae constrain the individual masses. Type II supernovae are found to give the largest fraction for deep surveys, and the optimum flux-limited search is found to be at approximately 23d magnitude, if evolution of the supernova rate is neglected.

Linder, Eric V.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Luminosity excesses in low-mass young stellar objects - A statistical study

This paper presents a statistical study in which the observed total luminosity is compared quantitatively with an estimate of the stellar luminosity for a sample of 59 low-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) in the Taurus-Auriga complex. In 13 of the analyzed YSOs, luminosity excesses greater than 0.20 are observed together with greater than 0.6 IR excesses, which typically contribute the bulk of the observed excess luminosity and are characterized by spectral energy distributions which are flat or rise toward long wavelengths. The analysis suggests that YSOs showing the largest luminosity excesses typically power optical jets and/or molecular outflows or have strong winds, as evidenced by the presence of O I emission, indicating a possible correlation between accretion and mass-outflow properties.

Strom, Karen M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Development of a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. II - The role of eddy momentum fluxes in the general circulation and their parameterization

The role of eddy momentum fluxes in the general circulation was investigated using a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model described by Yao and Stone (1987), which is almost two orders of magnitude faster than the three-dimensional climate model of Hansen et al. (1983). Results show that the vertical structure of the meridional eddy flux has relatively little impact on the general circulation, presumably because the vertical structure is strongly constrained by the thermal wind relation and surface friction. On the other hand, it was found that, in order to simulate accurately the general circulation and its response to climate changes, parameterization of the vertically integrated meridional eddy flux of angular momentum is necessary. A new parameterization of this eddy momentum transport was carried out, which is intended to represent the transport due to large-scale transient eddies arising from baroclinic instability.

Stone, Peter H.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Statistics of galaxy orientations - Morphology and large-scale structure

Using the Uppsala General Catalog of bright galaxies and the northern and southern maps of the Lick counts of galaxies, statistical evidence of a morphology-orientation effect is found. Major axes of elliptical galaxies are preferentially oriented along the large-scale features of the Lick maps. However, the orientations of the major axes of spiral and lenticular galaxies show no clear signs of significant nonrandom behavior at a level of less than about one-fifth of the effect seen for ellipticals. The angular scale of the detected alignment effect for Uppsala ellipticals extends to at least theta of about 2 deg, which at a redshift of z of about 0.02 corresponds to a linear scale of about 2/h Mpc.

Lambas, Diego G.↗

NASA NTRS1987

A statistical study of ion pitch-angle distributions

Preliminary results of a statistical study of energetic (34-50 keV) ion pitch-angle distributions (PADs) within 9 Re of earth provide evidence for an orderly pattern consistent with both drift-shell splitting and magnetopause shadowing. Normal ion PADs dominate the dayside and inner magnetosphere. Butterfly PADs typically occur in a narrow belt stretching from dusk to dawn through midnight, where they approach within 6 Re of earth. While those ion butterfly PADs that typically occur on closed drift paths are mainly caused by drift-shell splitting, there is also evidence for magnetopause shadowing in observations of more frequent butterfly PAD occurrence in the outer magnetosphere near dawn than dusk. Isotropic and gradient boundary PADs terminate the tailward extent of the butterfly ion PAD belt.

Sibeck, D. G.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Statistical study of ion flows in the dayside and nightside plasmasphere

A statistical survey of ion flows has been performed with the DE-1 high-altitude plasma instrument during a period of solar maximum conditions. The results indicate that a significant dayside to nightside interhemispheric flow occurs in the outer plasmasphere during periods of increased magnetic activity along convecting magnetic field lines. The ion temperature is found to decrease steadily equatorward into the outer plasmasphere. Although ion abundance ratios obtained using the retarding ion mass spectrometer show that the predominant ion species was H(+), relatively large densities of O(+) were observed in the plasmasphere on several passes.

Menietti, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Statistics of Sxy estimates

The statistics of Sxy estimates derived from orthogonal-component measurements are examined. Based on results of Goodman (1957), the probability density function (pdf) for Sxy(f) estimates is derived, and a closed-form solution for arbitrary moments of the distribution is obtained. Characteristic functions are used to derive the exact pdf of Sxy(tot). In practice, a simple Gaussian approximation is found to be highly accurate even for relatively few degrees of freedom. Implications for experiment design are discussed, and a maximum-likelihood estimator for a posterior estimation is outlined.

Freilich, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Paradigm For Statistical Analysis Of Threshold Detection

Relative values assigned to double mistakes and changed iteratively. Method for statistical analysis of threshold detection saves experimental time by enabling use of same set of measurements with respect to two thresholds. Accounts for double mistakes, unresolvable by threshold-detection technique.

Diner, Daniel B.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Performance analysis of the Alliant FX/8 multiprocessor using statistical clustering

Results for two distinct, real, scientific workloads executed on an Alliant FX/8 are discussed. A combination of user concurrency and system overhead measurements was taken for both workloads. Preliminary analysis shows that the first sampled workload is comprised of consistently high user concurrency, low system overhead, and little paging. The second sample has much less user concurrency, but significant paging and system overhead. Statistical cluster analysis is used to extract a state transition model to jointly characterize user concurrency and system overhead. A skewness factor is introduced and used to bring out the effects of unbalanced clustering when determining states with important transitions. The results from the models show that during the collection of the first sample, the system was operating in states of high user concurrency approximately 75 percent of the time. The second workload sample shows the system in high user concurrency states only 26 percent of the time. In addition, it is ascertained that high system overhead is usually accompanied by low user concurrency. The analysis also shows a high predictability of system behavior for both workloads.

Dimpsey, Robert Tod↗

NASA NTRS1988

The IUE data bank: Statistics and future aspects

The data exchange policy between Goddard Space Flight Center and ESA's Villafranca (Spain) station is described. The IUE data banks and their uses are outlined. Statistical information on objects observed, the quantity of data distributed and retrieved from the archives, together with a detailed design of the final format of the IUE merged log are also given.

Schmitz, Marion↗

NASA NTRS1988

Absolute ages from crater statistics: Using radiometric ages of Martian samples for determining the Martian cratering chronology

In the absence of dates derived from rock samples, impact crater frequencies are commonly used to date Martian surface units. All models for absolute dating rely on the lunar cratering chronology and on the validity of its extrapolation to Martian conditions. Starting from somewhat different lunar chronologies, rather different Martian cratering chronologies are found in the literature. Currently favored models are compared. The differences at old ages are significant, the differences at younger ages are considerable and give absolute ages for the same crater frequencies as different as a factor of 3. The total uncertainty could be much higher, though, since the ratio of lunar to Martian cratering rate which is of basic importance in the models is believed to be known no better than within a factor of 2. Thus, it is of crucial importance for understanding the the evolution of Mars and determining the sequence of events to establish an unambiguous Martian cratering chronology from crater statistics in combination with clean radiometric ages of returned Martian samples. For the dating goal, rocks should be as pristine as possible from a geologically simple area with a one-stage emplacement history of the local formation. A minimum of at least one highland site for old ages, two intermediate-aged sites, and one very young site is needed.

Neukum, G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Investigation of Weibull statistics in fracture analysis of cast aluminum

The fracture strengths of two large batches of A357-T6 cast aluminum coupon specimens were compared by using two-parameter Weibull analysis. The minimum number of these specimens necessary to find the fracture strength of the material was determined. The applicability of three-parameter Weibull analysis was also investigated. A design methodology based on the combination of elementary stress analysis and Weibull statistical analysis is advanced and applied to the design of a spherical pressure vessel shell. The results from this design methodology are compared with results from the applicable ASME pressure vessel code.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An Investigation of the Overlap Between the Statistical Discrete Gust and the Power Spectral Density Analysis Methods

The results of a NASA investigation of a claimed Overlap between two gust response analysis methods: the Statistical Discrete Gust (SDG) Method and the Power Spectral Density (PSD) Method are presented. The claim is that the ratio of an SDG response to the corresponding PSD response is 10.4. Analytical results presented for several different airplanes at several different flight conditions indicate that such an Overlap does appear to exist. However, the claim was not met precisely: a scatter of up to about 10 percent about the 10.4 factor can be expected.

Perry, Boyd, III↗

NASA NTRS1989

Statistical fluctuations as the origin of nontopological solitons

Nontopological solitons can be formed during a phase transition in the early universe as long as some net charge can be trapped in regions of false vacuum. It has been previously suggested that a particle-antiparticle asymmetry would provide a source for such trapped charge. It is pointed out that, for the model and parameters considered, statistical fluctuations provide a much larger concentration of charge, and are therefore, the dominant source of charge fluctuations in solitogenesis.

Griest, Kim↗

NASA NTRS1988

Fluctuation statistics of outgoing longwave radiation in a general circulation model and in satellite data

Fluctuation statistics of Northern-Hemisphere-winter outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) obtained from data collected by Nimbus 7 and NOAA AVHRR are compared with those computed by a general circulation model (GCM). It was found that the GCM OLR has more variance than does the satellite, but that the GCM clear-sky OLR has less variance than the satellite OLR. The variance of the GCM outgoing full-sky OLR was found to be forced by clouds. While the standard deviation of the GCM full OLR is larger than that of the satellite OLR, the geographical patterns of both are similar. The autocorrelations of the modeled and the observed OLR also display similar geographical distributions, and they are in turn correlated with the dynamics.

Charlock, Thomas P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Linear statistical analysis of maneuver optimization techniques

It is shown how a method for maneuver design during the Jovian satellite tour phase of the Galileo mission requires a full-scale redesign of the tour at each maneuver. Software was developed to provide insight into the statistical properties of this process; it is based on the use of linear perturbations to provide trajectory propagation and a least squares representation of the optimization. The result is a Monte Carlo program, making it possible to evaluate the proposed strategy.

Maize, Earl H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Statistical properties of solar granulation derived from the SOUP instrument on Spacelab 2

Computer algorithms and statistical techniques were used to identify, measure, and quantify the properties of solar granulation derived from movies collected by the Solar Optical Universal Polarimeter on Spacelab 2. The results show that there is neither a typical solar granule nor a typical granule evolution. A granule's evolution is dependent on local magnetic flux density, its position with respect to the active region plage, its position in the mesogranulation pattern, and the evolution of granules in its immediate neighborhood.

Title, A. M.↗