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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Identification of Worst Impact Zones for Power Grids During Extreme Weather Events Using Q-learning

Both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have been trending higher in recent years, leading to significant infrastructure damage in the electric grid. The impact of these extreme weather events is desired to be analyzed and quantified to help transmission and distribution system operators prepare for and prevent significant damage and subsequent loss of power. In this paper, we develop an approach that models the impact of extreme weather on the grid and identifies the worst impact zone using Q-learning (a reinforcement learning approach). The identification results reveal grid vulnerability to weather events and provide insights for system operators to help achieve optimal resource allocation and crew dispatch to minimize the adverse impacts of extreme weather. Simulation studies are conducted on the IEEE 123-node system to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach.

distribution system↗

CPES-QSM: A Quantitative Method Towards the Secure Operation of Cyber-Physical Energy Systems

Power systems are evolving into cyber-physical energy systems (CPES) mainly due to the integration of modern communication and Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices. CPES security evaluation is challenging since the physical and cyber layers are often not considered holistically. Existing literature focuses on only optimizing the operation of either the physical or cyber layer while ignoring the interactions between them. This paper proposes a metric, the Cyber-Physical Energy System Quantitative Security Metric (CPES-QSM), that quantifies the interaction between the cyber and physical layers across three domains: electrical, cyber-risk, and network topology. A method for incorporating the proposed cyber-metric into operational decisions is also proposed by formulating a cyber-constrained AC optimal power flow (C-ACOPF) that considers the status of all the CPES layers. The C-ACOPF considers the vulnerabilities of physical and cyber networks by incorporating factors such as voltage stability, contingencies, graph-theory, and IoT cyber risks, while using a multi-criteria decision-making technique. We note that simulation studies are conducted using standard IEEE test systems to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed metric and the C-ACOPF formulation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Next-Cycle Optimal Fuel Control for Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Reduction in EGR-Diluted Combustion

In this simulation study, cycle-to-cycle fuel control was used to reduce CCV by injecting additional fuel in operating conditions with sporadic misfires and partial burns. An optimal control policy was proposed that utilizes 1) a physics-based model that tracks in-cylinder gas composition and 2) a one-step-ahead prediction of the combustion efficiency based on a kernel density estimator. The optimal solution, however, presents a tradeoff between the reduction in combustion CCV and the increase in fuel injection quantity required to stabilize the charge. Such a tradeoff can be ad- just by a single parameter embedded in the cost function.

Maldonado, BryanP. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL)↗

Low Thermal Resistance (0.5 K/W) Ga 2 O 3 Schottky Rectifiers With Double-Side Packaging

The low thermal conductivity of Ga 2 O 3 has arguably been the most serious concern for Ga 2 O 3 power and RF devices. Despite many simulation studies, there is no experimental report on the thermal resistance of a large-area, packaged Ga 2 O 3 device. This work fills this gap by demonstrating a 15-A double-side packaged Ga 2 O 3 Schottky barrier diode (SBD) and measuring its junction-to-case thermal resistance (R θJC ) in the bottom-side- and junction-side-cooling configurations. The R θJC characterization is based on the transient dual interface method, i.e., JEDEC 51-14 standard. The R θJC of the junction- and bottom-cooled Ga 2 O 3 SBD was measured to be 0.5 K/W and 1.43 K/W, respectively, with the former R θJC lower than that of similarly-rated commercial SiC SBDs. This low R θJC is attributable to the heat extraction directly from the Schottky junction instead of through the Ga 2 O 3 chip. Here, the R θJC lower than that of commercial SiC devices proves the viability of Ga 2 O 3 devices for high-power applications and manifest the significance of proper packaging for their thermal management.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Robust PID Control Against Nonlinear Uncertainties in Modern Power Systems with Microgrids

This paper investigates the problem of robust PID control for nonlinear power systems with uncertainties. In this paper, we analyze the challenges posed by nonlinearities and uncertainties in power systems, as well as the limitations of traditional linearization methods. On this basis, a PID control design method is proposed, which utilizes only the Lipschitz constant information of the nonlinear uncertainties to achieve global stability control for the power systems. The paper provides a rigorous mathematical foundation to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the controller. Finally, simulation studies are conducted to validate and evaluate the performance of the proposed model, algorithm, and controller design.

Yuan, Shuo↗

Battery Equivalent Model for Residential HVAC

Flexible loads, especially heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems can be used to provide a battery-like service to the power grid by varying their demand up and down over a baseline. Recent work has reported that the round-trip efficiency for providing grid services with HVAC systems can be close to 1. Inspired by this promising result, in this work, we rigorously develop a battery equivalent model (BEM) for residential HVAC systems. Relying only on typically available data, the proposed BEM will bridge the observability and controllability gaps between utility companies and customers. The proposed BEM will enable the utility companies to manage the flexible HVAC devices as easy as charging/discharging the conventional energy storage devices. Validated physics-based models are used to train the BEM, whose prediction accuracy is illustrated through a simulation study.

Dong, Jin↗

Grid Forming Control of PMSG-based Wind Turbines under Fault Conditions

Grid-forming control is widely envisioned as core technology ensuring stable operation of future power systems with increasing deployment of converter-interfaced renewable generation. However, research on grid forming control of wind turbines, especially under faults, is still in its early stages. In this context, this paper augments dual-port grid-forming control for type IV wind turbines with auxiliary controls to enable reliable fault ride through capabilities. In particular, the proposed control does not require a dc chopper or mode switching to grid-following control. Instead, energy-balancing dual-port GFM control is augmented with active rotor speed damping control and threshold virtual impedance for current limiting during faults. Different operating conditions of wind turbines are considered in a detailed electromagnetic transient simulation study to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control.

Lyu, Xue↗

Design of Zone-Based Hierarchical Protection System for 100% Renewable Microgrids

Design of a reliable and secure protection system for a 100% renewable microgrid with only inverter-based resources (IBRs), is quite challenging. Most of the existing protection schemes in the state-of-the-art are suitable for microgrids with mixed-type of distributed energy resources (DERs) that covers both rotating machine-based DERs as well as IBR-based DERs, where the fault current level is moderately high. Due to drastic reduction in fault current level based on mode of operation and the variation of the low fault current level based on the operating level of the IBRs, the existing protection schemes face critical challenges, in case of a 100% renewable microgrid. This article proposes a zone-based hierarchical protection scheme that partitions a microgrid into various zones-of-protection and assigns speed-based hierarchical protection schemes in order to address the fundamental challenges of such microgrids. The performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated using time-domain simulation study on a microgrid test system. The results corroborates that the proposed hierarchical zone-based protection scheme exhibits enhanced reliability, security and dependability while tested with various fault cases (fault types, locations, and impedances), and non-fault cases during both grid-tied and islanded mode.

grid-forming inverter↗

Traffic Signal Control With Adaptive Online-Learning Scheme Using Multiple-Model Neural Networks

This article proposes a new traffic signal control algorithm to deal with unknown-traffic-system uncertainties and reduce delays in vehicle travel time. Unknown-traffic-system dynamics are approximated using a recurrent neural network (NN). To accurately identify the traffic system model, an online-learning scheme is developed to switch among a set of candidate NNs (i.e., multiple-model NNs) based on their estimation errors. Then, a bank of optimal signal-timing controllers is designed based on the online identification of the traffic system. Simulation studies have been carried out for the obtained control strategies using multiple-model NNs, and the desired results have been obtained. Moreover, compared with the widely used actuated traffic signal control schemes, it is shown that the proposed method can reduce vehicle travel delays and improve traffic system robustness.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Influence of Control and Limiter Schemes on Sequence-Domain Fault Models of Grid-Forming Inverter-Interfaced Distributed Generators

Unlike synchronous generators, the fault response of grid-forming (GFM) inverter-interfaced distributed generators (IIDGs) is notably governed by the selection of control and current limiting strategies rather than inherent physical traits. While recent research has focused on the sequence domain fault model of GFM IIDGs, a research gap exists in elucidating the influence of control and current limiting schemes on this model's characteristics. This article aims to fill this void by examining how different control and current limiting schemes influence the positive and negative sequence impedances in the phasor-domain fault model of GFM IIDGs. This investigation encompasses droop-based, virtual synchronous machine-based, and virtual oscillator-based reference generation controls alongside rotating and stationary reference-frame-based voltage controls. Furthermore, saturation-based, latching-based, circular and virtual impedance-based current limiting schemes are analyzed. To achieve this goal, a thorough numerical simulation study is conducted. Findings indicate that outer reference generation controls exhibit minimal impact. Conversely, the choice of voltage control and various current limiting schemes emerge as the predominant factors shaping the sequence models of GFM IIDGs. These analyses and results are instrumental in devising reliable protection strategies within inverter-based grids, as a comprehensive understanding of electrical elements in the sequence domain is imperative for effective protective measures.

current limiters↗

A Comprehensive Scheduling Framework using SP-ADMM for Residential Demand Response with Weather and Consumer Uncertainties

This paper presents a comprehensive scheduling framework for residential demand response (DR) programs considering both the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. In the first stage, residential customers determine the operating status of their responsive devices such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and electric water heaters (EWHs), while the distribution system operator (DSO) computes the amount of electricity to be purchased in the day-ahead electricity market. In the second stage, the DSO purchases insufficient (or sells surplus) electricity in the real-time electricity market to maintain the supply-demand balance. Due to its computational complexity and data privacy issues, the proposed model cannot be directly solved in a centralized manner, especially with a large number of uncertain scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a combination of stochastic programming (SP) and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm, called SP-ADMM, to decompose the original model and then solve each sub-problem in a distributed manner while considering multiple uncertain scenarios. The simulation study is performed on the IEEE 33-bus system including 121 residential houses. Here, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for large-scale residential DR applications under weather and consumer uncertainties.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Scalable and Distributed Algorithm for Managing Residential Demand Response Programs using Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM)

For effective engagement of residential demand-side resources and to ensure efficient operation of distribution networks, we must overcome the challenges of controlling and coordinating residential components and devices at scale. To overcome this challenge, we present a distributed and scalable algorithm with a three-level hierarchical information exchange architecture for managing the residential demand response programs. First, a centralized optimization model is formulated to maximize community social welfare. Then, this centralized model is solved in a distributed manner with alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) by decomposing the original problem to utility-level and house-level problems. The information exchange between the different layers is limited to the primary residual (i.e., supply-demand mismatch), Lagrangian multipliers, and the total load of each house to protect each customer’s privacy. Simulation studies are performed on the IEEE 33 bus test system with 605 residential customers. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can save customers’ electricity bills and reduce the peak load at the utility level without much affecting customers’ comfort and privacy. Finally, a quantitative comparison of the distributed and centralized algorithms shows the scalability advantage of the proposed ADMM-based approach, and it gives benchmarking results with achievable value for future research works.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilience Evaluation and Enhancement for Island City Integrated Energy Systems

Extreme natural hazards, such as hurricanes or earthquakes, have a high probability of threatening energy supply security and causing high-order contingencies to island city-integrated energy systems (IC-IESs). To better evaluate and enhance resilience, a novel approach is proposed in this work for IC-IESs. The resilience of an IC-IES is analyzed from both the system level and the component level. At the system level, the impacts of extreme natural disasters are quantified. At the component level, the importance of individual components is analyzed through pre-failure and post-failure indices. The pre-failure index identifies the system’s weak links before an energy interruption, and the post-failure index determines the optimal repair strategy to restore the service. The proposed indices are solved by the impact increment method (IIM), which significantly improves computational efficiency without much affecting result accuracy. Numerical simulation studies are conducted on the modified Barry Island IES and IES E123-G48-H32 test systems. Furthermore, the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Model Predictive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control for PDF Control Systems With Packet Losses

In this article, a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy is investigated for nonlinear probability density function (PDF) control systems with the actuator fault, uncertainties, unknown disturbance, and random packet losses. The control input signal dropout and measurement signal dropouts are described as the independent Bernoulli distribution. An adaptive fault diagnosis (FD) observer based on the Lyapunov function is given to simultaneously estimate the fault, disturbance, and state with packet losses. Furthermore, different from the traditional robust fault-tolerant control (FTC), a new active fault-tolerant tracking controller is designed based on the model predictive control framework, which has better adaptive fault-tolerant performance. Finally, the validity of the proposed FTC method has been proved by a simulation study of a papermaking process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pursuing sources of heterogeneity in modeling clustered population

Abstract Researchers often have to deal with heterogeneous population with mixed regression relationships, increasingly so in the era of data explosion. In such problems, when there are many candidate predictors, it is not only of interest to identify the predictors that are associated with the outcome, but also to distinguish the true sources of heterogeneity , that is, to identify the predictors that have different effects among the clusters and thus are the true contributors to the formation of the clusters. We clarify the concepts of the source of heterogeneity that account for potential scale differences of the clusters and propose a regularized finite mixture effects regression to achieve heterogeneity pursuit and feature selection simultaneously. We develop an efficient algorithm and show that our approach can achieve both estimation and selection consistency. Simulation studies further demonstrate the effectiveness of our method under various practical scenarios. Three applications are presented, namely, an imaging genetics study for linking genetic factors and brain neuroimaging traits in Alzheimer's disease, a public health study for exploring the association between suicide risk among adolescents and their school district characteristics, and a sport analytics study for understanding how the salary levels of baseball players are associated with their performance and contractual status.

Li, Yan↗

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Multi-Armed Bayesian Ordinal Outcome Utility-Based Sequential Trial with a Pairwise Null Clustering Prior

A multi-armed trial based on ordinal outcomes is proposed that leverages a flexible non-proportional odds cumulative logit model and numerical utility scores for each outcome to determine treatment optimality. This trial design uses a Bayesian clustering prior on the treatment effects that encourages the pairwise null hypothesis of no differences between treatments. A group sequential design is proposed to determine which treatments are clinically different with an adaptive decision boundary that becomes more aggressive as the sample size or clinical significance grows, or the number of active treatments decreases. A simulation study is conducted for 3 and 5 treatment arms, which shows that the design has superior operating characteristics (family wise error rate, generalized power, average sample size) compared to utility designs that do not allow clustering, a frequentist proportional odds model, or a permutation test based on empirical mean utilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗