Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “range prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,495 records · Page 83

A Model of Reduced Kinetics for Alkane Oxidation Using Constituents and Species for N-Heptane

The reduction of elementary or skeletal oxidation kinetics to a subgroup of tractable reactions for inclusion in turbulent combustion codes has been the subject of numerous studies. The skeletal mechanism is obtained from the elementary mechanism by removing from it reactions that are considered negligible for the intent of the specific study considered. As of now, there are many chemical reduction methodologies. A methodology for deriving a reduced kinetic mechanism for alkane oxidation is described and applied to n-heptane. The model is based on partitioning the species of the skeletal kinetic mechanism into lights, defined as those having a carbon number smaller than 3, and heavies, which are the complement of the species ensemble. For modeling purposes, the heavy species are mathematically decomposed into constituents, which are similar but not identical to groups in the group additivity theory. From analysis of the LLNL (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II, it is shown that a similarity variable can be formed such that the appropriately non-dimensionalized global constituent molar density exhibits a self-similar behavior over a very wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressures and initial temperatures that is of interest for predicting n-heptane oxidation. Furthermore, the oxygen and water molar densities are shown to display a quasi-linear behavior with respect to the similarity variable. The light species ensemble is partitioned into quasi-steady and unsteady species. The reduced model is based on concepts consistent with those of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) in which functional forms are used to replace the small scales eliminated through filtering of the governing equations; in LES, these small scales are unimportant as far as the overwhelming part of dynamic energy is concerned. Here, the scales thought unimportant for recovering the thermodynamic energy are removed. The concept is tested by using tabular information from the LLNL skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II utilized as surrogate ideal functions replacing the necessary functional forms. The test reveals that the similarity concept is indeed justified and that the combustion temperature is well predicted, but that the ignition time is over-predicted, a fact traced to neglecting a detailed description of the processes leading to the heavies chemical decomposition. To palliate this deficiency, functional modeling is incorporated into this conceptual reduction in addition to the modeling the evolution of the global constituent molar density, the enthalpy evolution of the heavies, the contribution to the reaction rate of the unsteady lights from other light species and from the heavies, the molar density evolution of oxygen and water, and the mole fractions of the quasisteady light species. The model is compact in that there are only nine species-related progress variables. Results are presented showing the performance of the model for predicting the temperature and species evolution. The model reproduces the ignition time over a wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressure, and initial temperature.

Harstad, Kenneth G.↗

Millimeter-wave diode-grid phase shifters

Monolithic diode grids have been fabricated on 2-cm square gallium-arsenide wafers with 1600 Schottky-barrier varactor diodes. Shorted diodes are detected with a liquid-crystal technique, and the bad diodes are removed with an ultrasonic probe. A small-aperture reflectometer that uses wavefront division interference was developed to measure the reflection coefficient of the grids. A phase shift of 70 deg with a 7-dB loss was obtained at 93 GHz when the bias on the diode grid was changed from -3 V to 1 V. A simple transmission-line grid model, together with the measured low-frequency parameters for the diodes, was shown to predict the measured performance over the entire capacitive bias range of the diodes, as well as over the complete reactive tuning range provided by a reflector behind the grid, and over a wide range of frequencies from 33 GHz to 141 GHz. This shows that the transmission-line model and the measured low-frequency diode parameters can be used to design an electronic beam-steering array and to predict its performance. An electronic beam-steering array made of a pair of grids using state-of-the-art diodes with 5-ohm series resistances would have a loss of 1.4 dB at 90 GHz.

Lam, Wayne W.↗

Bromine-Chlorine Coupling in the Antarctic Ozone Hole

The contribution from the chlorine and bromine species in the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole is evaluated. Since chlorine and bromine compounds are of different industrial origin, it is desirable, from a policy point of view, to be able to attribute chlorine-catalyzed loss of ozone with those reactions directly involving chlorine species, and likewise for bromine-catalyzed loss. In the stratosphere, however, most of the chemical families are highly coupled, and, for example, changes in the chlorine abundance will alter the partitioninig in other families and thus the rate of ozone loss. This modeling study examines formation of the Antarctic ozone hole for a wide range of bromine concentrations (5 - 25 pptv) and for chlorine concentrations typical of the last two decades (1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 ppbv). We follow the photochemical evolution of a single parcel of air, typical of the inner Antarctic vortex (50 mbar, 70 deg. S, NO(sub y) = 2 ppbv, with Polar Stratospheric Clouds(PSC)) from August 1 to November 1. For all of these ranges of chlorine and bromine loading, we would predict a substantial ozone hole (local depletion greater than 90%) within the de-nitrified, PSC- perturbed vortex. The contributions of the different catalytic cycles responsible for ozone loss are tabulated. The deep minimum in ozone is driven primarily by the chlorine abundance. As bromine levels decrease, the magnitude of the chlorine-catalyzed ozone loss increases to take up the slack. This is because bromine suppresses ClO by accelerating the conversion of ClO an Cl2O2 back to HCI. For this range of conditions, the local relative efficiency of ozone destruction per bromine atom to that per chlorine atom (alpha-factor) ranges from 33 to 55, decreasing with increase of bromine.

Danilin, Michael Y.↗

In-phase and out-of-phase axial-torsional fatigue behavior of Haynes 188 at 760 C

Isothermal, in-phase and out-of-phase axial-torsional fatigue experiments have been conducted at 760 C on uniform gage section, thin-walled tubular specimens of a wrought cobalt-base superalloy, Haynes 188. Test-control and data acquisition were accomplished with a minicomputer. Fatigue lives of the in- and out-of-phase axial-torsional fatigue tests have been estimated with four different multiaxial fatigue life prediction models that were developed primarly for predicting axial-torsional fatigue lives at room temperature. The models investigated were: (1) the von Mises equivalent strain range; (2) the Modified Multiaxiality Factor Approach; (3) the Modified Smith-Watson-Topper Parameter; and (4) the critical shear plane method of Fatemi, Socie, and Kurath. In general, life predictions by the von Mises equivalent strain range model were within a factor of 2 for a majority of the tests and the predictions by the Modified Multiaxiality Factor Approach were within a factor of 2, while predictions of the Modified Smith-Watson-Topper Parameter and of the critical shear plane method of Fatemi, Socie, and Kurath were unconservative and conservative, respectively, by up to factors of 4. In some of the specimens tested under combined axial-torsional loading conditions, fatigue cracks initiated near extensometer indentations. Two design modifications have been proposed to the thin-walled tubular specimen to overcome this problem.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗

Simplified Green-Ampt Model, Imbibition-Based Estimates of Permeability, and Implications for Leak-off in Hydraulic Fracturing

Predicting water imbibition into porous materials is important in a wide variety of fields, and hydraulic fracturing of low permeability hydrocarbon reservoirs has emerged as an application that is imposing a large water footprint. Furthermore, reliable predictions of imbibition are needed to better manage water use, yet are challenging because of uncertainties in both the permeability and capillary pressure driving force. Here, this uncertainty is reduced through evaluating correlations between the permeability and the effective capillary pressure associated with the wetting front, P c,f . These correlations allow elimination of P c,f from the Green and Ampt equation and concentrate all uncertainties in fluxes on the effective permeability k . Over a wide range of k and porosities n , imbibition scales approximately with k 1/3 . Although Leverett k 1/4 scaling for predicting P c,f is shown to be inferior when tested with data spanning a wide range of n , it nevertheless predicted imbibition fairly well. From simple imbibition measurements, both the empirical and Leverett scaling approaches allow estimates of k that have root-mean-square deviations of about one order of magnitude relative to measurements that ranged over 10 orders of magnitude in k .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Microscopic theory, analysis, and interpretation of conductance histograms in molecular junctions

Molecular electronics break-junction experiments are widely used to investigate fundamental physics and chemistry at the nanoscale. Reproducibility in these experiments relies on measuring conductance on thousands of freshly formed molecular junctions, yielding a broad histogram of conductance events. Experiments typically focus on the most probable conductance, while the information content of the conductance histogram has remained unclear. Here we develop a microscopic theory for the conductance histogram by merging the theory of force-spectroscopy with molecular conductance. The procedure yields analytical equations that accurately fit the conductance histogram of a wide range of molecular junctions and augments the information content that can be extracted from them. Our formulation captures contributions to the conductance dispersion due to conductance changes during the mechanical elongation inherent to the experiments. In turn, the histogram shape is determined by the non-equilibrium stochastic features of junction rupture and formation. The microscopic parameters in the theory capture the junction’s electromechanical properties and can be isolated from separate conductance and rupture force (or junction-lifetime) measurements. The predicted behavior can be used to test the range of validity of the theory, understand the conductance histograms, design molecular junction experiments with enhanced resolution and molecular devices with more reproducible conductance properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies

Precipitation exhibits a large variability over a wide range of space and time scales: from seconds to years and decades in time; from the millimeter scale of microphysical processes to regional and global scales in space. It also exhibits a large variability in magnitude and frequency, from low extremes resulting in prolonged droughts to high extremes resulting in devastating floods. Improving precipitation estimation and prediction has great societal impact for decision support in water resources management, infrastructure protection and design under accelerating climate extremes, quantifying water and energy balances at the regional to global scales, and predicting hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts that affect the economy and security around the world (e.g., Blunden and Arndt, 2019). Yet, despite significant advances in observations and physical understanding, precipitation still remains one of the most challenging variables to model and predict at local, regional and global scales with significant implications for our ability to quantify water and energy cycle dynamics, inform decision making, and predict hydro-geomorphic hazards in response to precipitation extremes (e.g. Maggioni and Massari, 2019).

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou↗

Development of QSAR models to predict blood-brain barrier permeability

Assessing drug permeability across the blood-brain barrier (BBB) is important when evaluating the abuse potential of new pharmaceuticals as well as developing novel therapeutics that target central nervous system disorders. One of the gold-standard in vivo methods for determining BBB permeability is rodent log BB; however, like most in vivo methods, it is time-consuming and expensive. In the present study, two statistical-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed to predict BBB permeability of drugs based on their chemical structure. The in vivo BBB permeability data were harvested for 921 compounds from publicly available literature, non-proprietary drug approval packages, and University of Washington’s Drug Interaction Database. The cross-validation performance statistics for the BBB models ranged from 82 to 85% in sensitivity and 80–83% in negative predictivity. Additionally, the performance of newly developed models was assessed using an external validation set comprised of 83 chemicals. Overall, performance of individual models ranged from 70 to 75% in sensitivity, 70–72% in negative predictivity, and 78–86% in coverage. The predictive performance was further improved to 93% in coverage by combining predictions across the two software programs. These new models can be rapidly deployed to predict blood brain barrier permeability of pharmaceutical candidates and reduce the use of experimental animals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Brain ageing in schizophrenia: evidence from 26 international cohorts via the ENIGMA Schizophrenia consortium

Schizophrenia (SZ) is associated with an increased risk of life-long cognitive impairments, age-related chronic disease, and premature mortality. We investigated evidence for advanced brain ageing in adult SZ patients, and whether this was associated with clinical characteristics in a prospective meta-analytic study conducted by the ENIGMA Schizophrenia Working Group. The study included data from 26 cohorts worldwide, with a total of 2803 SZ patients (mean age 34.2 years; range 18–72 years; 67% male) and 2598 healthy controls (mean age 33.8 years, range 18–73 years, 55% male). Brain-predicted age was individually estimated using a model trained on independent data based on 68 measures of cortical thickness and surface area, 7 subcortical volumes, lateral ventricular volumes and total intracranial volume, all derived from T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Deviations from a healthy brain ageing trajectory were assessed by the difference between brain-predicted age and chronological age (brain-predicted age difference [brain-PAD]). On average, SZ patients showed a higher brain-PAD of +3.55 years (95% CI: 2.91, 4.19; I 2 = 57.53%) compared to controls, after adjusting for age, sex and site (Cohen’s d = 0.48). Among SZ patients, brain-PAD was not associated with specific clinical characteristics (age of onset, duration of illness, symptom severity, or antipsychotic use and dose). This large-scale collaborative study suggests advanced structural brain ageing in SZ. Longitudinal studies of SZ and a range of mental and somatic health outcomes will help to further evaluate the clinical implications of increased brain-PAD and its ability to be influenced by interventions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Background Simulation of the MSFC GSPC Balloon Payload

Numerical simulations are used to predict the cosmic-ray induced background in a passively shielded gas scintillation proportional counter to be used as the focal plane instrument of a balloon-borne hard x-ray telescope system. The predicted background in the 20-75 keV operating range of the detector shows a spectral shape characteristic of a power law photoelectrically absorbed by the stainless steel pressure vessel walls. It is found that the dominant background radiation component is simply cosmic diffuse and atmospheric gamma-ray leakage though there is a contribution from nuclear interactions of energetic particles in the walls and nearby payload structures. The correlation between shielding properties and background flux is examined parametrically using one-dimensional slab models, within material and weight constraints, in order to optimize predicted sensitivity. The addition of a few mm thick Sn passive shielding reduces the primary photon contribution by up to 50% at the spectral peak, E 150 keV, and adds only negligibly to the flux due to photon production within the high-Z shields at lower energies.

Swartz, D. A.↗

Computational method to predict thermodynamic, transport, and flow properties for the modified Langley 8-foot high-temperature tunnel

The Langley 8 foot high temperature tunnel (8 ft HTT) is used to test components of hypersonic vehicles for aerothermal loads definition and structural component verification. The test medium of the 8 ft HTT is obtained by burning a mixture of methane and air under high pressure; the combustion products are expanded through an axisymmetric conical contoured nozzle to simulate atmospheric flight at Mach 7. This facility was modified to raise the oxygen content of the test medium to match that of air and to include Mach 4 and Mach 5 capabilities. These modifications will facilitate the testing of hypersonic air breathing propulsion systems for a wide range of flight conditions. A computational method to predict the thermodynamic, transport, and flow properties of the equilibrium chemically reacting oxygen enriched methane-air combustion products was implemented in a computer code. This code calculates the fuel, air, and oxygen mass flow rates and test section flow properties for Mach 7, 5, and 4 nozzle configurations for given combustor and mixer conditions. Salient features of the 8 ft HTT are described, and some of the predicted tunnel operational characteristics are presented in the carpet plots to assist users in preparing test plans.

Venkateswaran, S.↗

Quasi-deuteron model at low renormalization group resolution

The quasi-deuteron model introduced by Levinger is used to explain cross sections for knocking out high-momentum protons in photoabsorption on nuclei. This is within a framework we characterize as exhibiting high renormalization group (RG) resolution. Assuming a one-body reaction operator, the nuclear wave function must include two-body short-range correlations (SRCs) with deuteronlike quantum numbers. In Phys. Rev. C 104, 034311 (2021), we showed that SRC physics can be naturally accounted for at low RG resolution. We describe the quasi-deuteron model at low RG resolution and determine the Levinger constant, which is proportional to the ratio of nuclear photoabsorption to that for photodisintegration of a deuteron. We extract the Levinger constant based on the ratio of momentum distributions at high relative momentum. We compute momentum distributions evolved under similarity RG (SRG) transformations where the SRC physics is shifted into the operator as a universal two-body term. The short-range nature of this operator motivates using local-density approximations with uncorrelated wave functions in evaluating nuclear matrix elements, which greatly simplifies the analysis. The operator must be consistently matched to the RG scale and scheme of the interaction for a reliable extraction. We apply SRG transformations to different nucleon-nucleon (NN) interactions and use the deuteron wave functions and Weinberg eigenvalues to determine approximate matching scales. We predict the Levinger constant for several NN interactions and a wide range of nuclei comparing to experimental extractions. The predictions at low RG resolution are in good agreement with experiment when starting with a hard NN interaction and the initial operator. Similar agreement is found using soft NN interactions when the additional two-body operator induced by evolution from hard to soft is included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Hydrothermal solubility of Dy hydroxide as a function of pH and stability of Dy hydroxyl aqueous complexes from 25 to 250 °C

The rare earth elements (REE) have important applications in green energy technologies. The formation of mineral deposits in geologic systems commonly involves hydrothermal fluids which can mobilize the REE. However, the REE speciation is not well known as a function of pH. The thermodynamic properties of REE hydroxyl complexes used in geochemical models are based on the Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers (HKF) equation of state parameters which were derived by extrapolation of low temperature experimental and estimated data. In this study, Dy hydroxide solubility experiments are combined with available literature data to improve these models from 25 to 250 °C and optimize the thermodynamic properties of Dy 3+ and Dy hydroxyl complexes using GEMSFITS. Batch-type solubility experiments were conducted from 150 to 250 °C and at saturated water vapor pressure in perchloric acid solutions with initial pH values of 2 to 5 in 0.5 pH unit increments. The measured solubility of Dy hydroxide is retrograde with temperature and decreases with pH. The logarithm of total dissolved Dy molality ranges from –2.3 to –5.3 at 150 °C (pH 4.7–5.5), from –2.4 to –5.6 at 200 °C (pH 3.9–5.1), and from –3.7 to –6.9 at 250 °C (pH of 3.4 and 5.0). The optimized standard partial molal Gibbs energies of formation (Δ f G° T ) derived for Dy 3+ and DyOH 2+ display a close to linear relationship with temperature, fitting with previous optimizations based on DyPO 4 solubility data in the literature. A comparison of the optimized ΔfG°T values for aqueous Dy species with predictions from available HKF parameters indicates significant differences ranging from +11 to –26 kJ/mol between 25 and 250 °C. The experimental fits are used to derive the Dy hydroxide solubility products (K s0 ) and formation constants for the hydrolysis of Dy (β n with n = 1 to 3; Dy 3+ + nOH – = DyOH n 3-n ) as a function of temperature. The optimization method presented yields accurate thermodynamic properties for the Dy 3+ aqua ions and the DyOH 2+ species at the acidic to mildly acidic pH studied whereas more experimental work is needed at near-neutral and alkaline conditions to better constrain the other hydroxyl complexes. Furthermore, the optimized thermodynamic data have a significant impact on geochemical modeling of the mobility and solubility of REE minerals in acidic hydrothermal fluids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of radiation heat loss on planar and spherical hydrofluorocarbon/air flames

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), which are mildly flammable and pose potential fire risks, have received greater attention as a viable low global warming potential alternative to traditional refrigerant and fire-suppressant compounds. Therefore, there is a demand to accurately quantify their flammability and re-activity to establish proper safety metrics. Here, this study investigates the effects of radiation heat loss on slowly-propagating HFC/air laminar flames. Planar 1-D simulations of R-32/air and R-1234yf/air flames show significant reductions in laminar flame speed due to radiative heat losses from the flame zone. Simulations of spherically expanding flames (SEF) revealed that the radiation-induced flow needs to be considered when interpreting data from experiments. To this end, a Spherical-flame RADiation-Induced Flow (SRADIF) model was developed to estimate the burned gas inward flow velocities in constant-pressure SEFs, utilizing the optically thin limit assumption to model radiation heat loss. The model was validated against results from detailed numerical simulations of SEFs, from which radiation-induced inward flow was derived using a new formulation considering both the radiation heat loss and convective flow effects. Results show that SRADIF accurately predicts the inward flow velocity for R-32/air mixtures over a range of conditions and performs significantly better compared to existing analytical models. However, the model was unable to accurately predict flow velocities for R-1234yf/air flames and the reason for this is discussed. (224 words)

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning to Predict Arbitrary Quantum Processes

We present an efficient machine-learning (ML) algorithm for predicting any unknown quantum process ℰ over 𝑛 qubits. For a wide range of distributions 𝒟 on arbitrary 𝑛-qubit states, we show that this ML algorithm can learn to predict any local property of the output from the unknown process ℰ, with a small average error over input states drawn from 𝒟. The ML algorithm is computationally efficient even when the unknown process is a quantum circuit with exponentially many gates. Our algorithm combines efficient procedures for learning properties of an unknown state and for learning a low-degree approximation to an unknown observable. The analysis hinges on proving new norm inequalities, including a quantum analogue of the classical Bohnenblust-Hille inequality, which we derive by giving an improved algorithm for optimizing local Hamiltonians. Numerical experiments on predicting quantum dynamics with evolution time up to 10 6 and system size up to 50 qubits corroborate our proof. Overall, our results highlight the potential for ML models to predict the output of complex quantum dynamics much faster than the time needed to run the process itself.

quantum computation↗

Zero side force volute development

Collector scrolls on high performance centrifugal pumps are currently designed with methods which are based on very approximate flowfield models. Such design practices result in some volute configurations causing excessive side loads even at design flowrates. The purpose of this study was to develop and verify computational design tools which may be used to optimize volute configurations with respect to avoiding excessive loads on the bearings. The new design methodology consisted of a volute grid generation module and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) module to describe the volute geometry and predict the radial forces for a given flow condition, respectively. Initially, the CFD module was used to predict the impeller and the volute flowfields simultaneously; however, the required computation time was found to be excessive for parametric design studies. A second computational procedure was developed which utilized an analytical impeller flowfield model and an ordinary differential equation to describe the impeller/volute coupling obtained from the literature, Adkins & Brennen (1988). The second procedure resulted in 20 to 30 fold increase in computational speed for an analysis. The volute design analysis was validated by postulating a volute geometry, constructing a volute to this configuration, and measuring the steady radial forces over a range of flow coefficients. Excellent agreement between model predictions and observed pump operation prove the computational impeller/volute pump model to be a valuable design tool. Further applications are recommended to fully establish the benefits of this new methodology.

Anderson, P. G.↗

A prediction method for velocity and temperature profiles in a two-dimensional nominally steady turbulent boundary layer

This paper describes a recently developed boundary-layer prediction method for a variable property compressible flow, in which heat transfer takes place primarily by forced convection and for which the mainstream Mach number is small. The leading order terms, in asymptotic expansions for large Reynolds numbers, are obtained for the mean velocity and temperature distribution in both the inner and outer layer of the turbulent boundary layer. Closure in the inner layer is achieved using an analytical model for the mean profiles which is based on the observed coherent structure of the time-dependent inner layer flow. For the outer layer, simple eddy viscosity and conductivity models are developed without recourse to the Reynolds analogy. In the prediction method a numerical solution of the outer layer equations is matched to the analytical inner layer profiles as the computation procedes downstream. Calculations are presented for a range of adverse and favorable pressure gradient flows and the predicted results compare well with existing data.

Weigand, G. G.↗

Predictions of core plasma performance for the SPARC tokamak

SPARC is designed to be a high-field, medium-size tokamak aimed at achieving net energy gain with ion cyclotron range-of-frequencies (ICRF) as its primary auxiliary heating mechanism. Empirical predictions with conservative physics indicate that SPARC baseline plasmas would reach $\textit{Q}$ ≈ 11, which is well above its mission objective of $\textit{Q}$ > 2. To build confidence that SPARC will be successful, physics-based integrated modelling has also been performed. The TRANSP code coupled with the theory-based trapped gyro-Landau fluid (TGLF) turbulence model and EPED predictions for pedestal stability find that $\textit{Q}$ ≈ 9 is attainable in standard H-mode operation and confirms $\textit{Q}$ > 2 operation is feasible even with adverse assumptions. In this analysis, ion cyclotron waves are simulated with the full wave TORIC code and alpha heating is modelled with the Monte–Carlo fast ion NUBEAM module. Detailed analysis of expected turbulence regimes with linear and nonlinear CGYRO simulations is also presented, demonstrating that profile predictions with the TGLF reduced model are in reasonable agreement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗