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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Model systems for life processes on Mars

In the evolution of life forms nonphotosynthetic mechanisms are developed. The question remains whether a total life system could evolve which is not dependent upon photosynthesis. In trying to visualize life on other planets, the photosynthetic process has problems. On Mars, the high intensity of light at the surface is a concern and alternative mechanisms need to be defined and analyzed. In the UV search for alternate mechanisms, several different areas may be identified. These involve activated inorganic compounds in the atmosphere, such as the products of photodissociation of carbon dioxide and the organic material which may be created by natural phenomena. In addition, a life system based on the pressure of the atmospheric constituents, such as carbon dioxide, is a possibility. These considerations may be important for the understanding of evolutionary processes of life on another planet. Model systems which depend on these alternative mechanisms are defined and related to presently planned and future planetary missions.

Mitz, M. A.↗

Transport processes in the stratosphere: Model simulations and comparisons with satellite observations

A three dimensional atmospheric model was used to study transport processes and to simulate the distribution of chemically active species in the stratosphere. The present results are part of a long term simulation of the seasonally varying structure of stratospheric trace constituents. The occurrence of a midwinter stratospheric warming and the associated transport of O3 and HNO3 during the simulation are described. Comparison of the simulated distributions of O3 and HNO3 are made with data from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment. In addition, distributions of Ertel's potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces (IPV) are evaluated as a diagnostic for interpreting transport processes. Comparisons are made with IPV distributions inferred from LIMS temperature data.

Grose, W. L.↗

Origin of Plutonium-244 in the Early Solar System

We investigate the origin in the early Solar System of the short-lived radionuclide 244 Pu (with a half life of 80 Myr) produced by the rapid (r) neutron-capture process. We consider two large sets of r-process nucleosynthesis models and analyse if the origin of 244 Pu in the ESS is consistent with that of the other r and slow (s) neutron-capture process radioactive nuclei. Uncertainties on the r-process models come from both the nuclear physics input and the astrophysical site. The former strongly affects the ratios of isotopes of close mass ( 129 I/ 127 I, 244 Pu/ 238 U, and 247 Pu/ 235 U). The 129 I/ 247 Cm ratio, instead, which involves isotopes of a very different mass, is much more variable than those listed above and is more affected by the physics of the astrophysical site. We consider possible scenarios for the evolution of the abundances of these radioactive nuclei in the galactic interstellar medium and verify under which scenarios and conditions solutions can be found for the origin of 244 Pu that are consistent with the origin of the other isotopes. Solutions are generally found for all the possible different regimes controlled by the interval (δ) between additions from the source to the parcel of interstellar medium gas that ended up in the Solar System, relative to decay timescales. If r-process ejecta in interstellar medium are mixed within a relatively small area (leading to a long δ), we derive that the last event that explains the 129 I and 247 Cm abundances in the early Solar System can also account for the abundance of 244 Pu. Due to its longer half life, however, 244 Pu may have originated from a few events instead of one only. If r-process ejecta in interstellar medium are mixed within a relatively large area (leading to a short δ), we derive that the time elapsed from the formation of the molecular cloud to the formation of the Sun was 9-16 Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of Integrated Mechanical Pods

This presentation highlights early wins, updated progress, and upcoming developments on ‘national-scale shared development platform’ for rapid prototyping, testing and validation of various integrated Mechanical Pod solutions and form factors. Such pod solutions consist of a set of all-electric heat pump mechanical equipment that have integrated functionalities through built-in controls, with heating, cooling, hot water, ventilation (including energy recovery), electrical management, and battery storage within a single package. The presentation draws inspiration from the success of bathroom pods in the US modular construction industry, UK’s efforts with unitizing mechanical systems as ‘utility cupboards’, and VEIC’s early wins in design-build of all-electric Mechanical Pod solutions in Vermont. The presentation includes researchers and partners involved with NREL in Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DfMA), Virtual Design and Construction (VDC), and digital twin based process optimization modeling of integrated Mechanical Pod solutions. The presentation aims to highlight early wins from such a platform and how various physical and virtual tools are currently being employed as part of NREL’s ongoing multi-year project funded by US DOE. Streamlined procurement, coordination, installation, and O&M of Mechanical Pods such that the majority of work is delegated to the off-site modular factory implies monetary savings. Such a seemingly basic shift in location of the construction process leads to great reduction in complexity, first cost, lead time, and waste, and greater opportunities for innovative compartmentalization and integration of mechanical systems appropriately sized for each apartment or hotel guest room. However, past studies on unitized combination systems show that high installation costs, maintenance issues, challenges with system integration, limitations in existing electrical infrastructure, and lack of architecturally appealing solutions are key barriers. NREL and partners aim to address key barriers through DfMA approach, rapid prototyping and testing, and digital twin process optimization modeling. The presentation is also a call for interested entities to partner with NREL as part of the national-scale development platform, help drive both product and process innovation, and encourage open source sharing of learnings. Learning objectives include (1) learn about the vision of national-scale shared development platform for process-product innovation on integrated mechanical pod solutions and how to get involved, (2) gain an understanding of the components of an all-electric, high performance home, design characteristics and equipment included in an all-electric mechanical pod, integration of mechanical systems within a modular factories’ assembly line, and the system’s commissioning, operation and maintenance. The pre-planning and coordination with the factory and sub-contractors are also highlighted, (3) gain an understanding of using process modeling tools to quantify resource-constrained performance of operations (such as integration of energy efficiency strategies) to manufacture modules of varying design, (4) gain insights on virtual design, rapid prototyping, and emulated testing of various form factors across different climatic conditions. The need for such preliminary testing with open source sharing of learnings will also be highlighted.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Structural error and identifiability

In most identification problems, the possibility of identifying a model from the observation of input and output is approached by first assuming that the model is an exact representation of the process. Since models are only approximations to a real process, this paper presents a concrete way of taking into account the difference in structure between the model and the process it represents. The identifiability problem is reformulated on the basis of equivalence and near-equivalence between model and process. Necessary and sufficient conditions under which the differences between the outputs of the process and a model remains within a desired bound in the presence of modeling error are given. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of parameters are presented.

Hadaegh, F. Y.↗

One of These Things IS Like the Other: Pursuing a New Taxonomy of Industry for Improved Energy System Modeling

Industrial processes drive the exchange of materials, energy, and currency throughout the economy. These processes are powered by electricity and direct combustion, with variation in their operation even within the same industry. This heterogeneity makes it difficult for large models, including the National Energy Modeling System (US), to project their energy use while remaining tractable. Decarbonization and ensuing changes to the energy system require changes to industrial processes while offering opportunities for process innovation, but the extent and nature of changes are difficult to model with current classification schemes and corresponding data. The North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) is an economic taxonomy of industries, but its categories are less meaningful from an energy and material flow perspective. For example, a facility that makes steel from iron ore in a blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace is categorized under the same NAICS code as a facility that makes steel from scrap in an electric arc furnace despite the scale, use of recycled scrap versus iron ore, and energy use differences in the two facility types. Exploratory analysis is performed on a large dataset used for plant-level energy assessment in order to detect clusters that can aid in better modeling of industry for energy analysis in an evolving system with breakthrough technologies.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗

Using Dispersed Modes During Model Correlation

The model correlation process for the modal characteristics of a launch vehicle is well established. After a test, parameters within the nominal model are adjusted to reflect structural dynamics revealed during testing. However, a full model correlation process for a complex structure can take months of man-hours and many computational resources. If the analyst only has weeks, or even days, of time in which to correlate the nominal model to the experimental results, then the traditional correlation process is not suitable. This paper describes using model dispersions to assist the model correlation process and decrease the overall cost of the process. The process creates thousands of model dispersions from the nominal model prior to the test and then compares each of them to the test data. Using mode shape and frequency error metrics, one dispersion is selected as the best match to the test data. This dispersion is further improved by using a commercial model correlation software. In the three examples shown in this paper, this dispersion based model correlation process performs well when compared to models correlated using traditional techniques and saves time in the post-test analysis.

Stewart, Eric C.↗

Scaled up Process Report – Apparatus and Model

Advanced voloxidation with NO 2 is a proposed process for used nuclear fuel head-end reprocessing scheme that converts UO 2 to higher oxides, and it also converts partitioning volatile fission products into the gas phase, thus facilitating fuel dissolution and actinide recovery. NO 2 voloxidation is being studied on small batches of UO 2 Simfuel, but the real test of process feasibility will be when it is scaled up to work with >100 g of irradiated material. This report discusses the aspects of scale-up that must be considered for NO 2 voloxidation, including development of a stirred reactor to promote agitation of the mixture during processing, online process monitoring, and automation controls. Brief details on parallel efforts are also provided in this report, including (a) demonstration of iodine release from Simfuel made by Spark Plasma Sintering, and (b) development of an order-of-magnitude scale-up to react 100 g of UO 2 Simfuel in a metal reactor.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Control Reconfigurability of Linear Time-Invariant Systems

For any fault-tolerant control method to take effect, sufficient redundancy must exist in the plant (process) to be controlled. This paper is intended to establish a means of measuring the level of redundancy in connection with feedback control by borrowing the notion of the second-order modes. In particular, it is assumed that foreseeable faults of a process are parameterized in the model of the process. The smallest second-order mode is used as a measure of the potentiality of the process to maintain a certain performance through control reconfiguration at the occurrence of the worst faults over a prescribed set in the fault parameter space. This measure is called by the authors a control reconfigurability. The control reconfigurability is calculated for two process models to show its relevance to redundant actuating capabilities in the models.

Wu, N. Eva↗

JAX-CanVeg: A Differentiable Land Surface Model

Land surface models consider the exchange of water, energy, and carbon along the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, which is challenging to model due to their complex interdependency and associated challenges in representing and parameterizing them. Differentiable modeling provides a new opportunity to capture these complex interactions by seamlessly hybridizing process-based models with deep neural networks (DNNs), benefiting both worlds, that is, the physical interpretation of process-based models and the learning power of DNNs. Here, we developed a differentiable land model, JAX-CanVeg. The new model builds on the legacy CanVeg by incorporating advanced functionalities through JAX in the graphic processing unit support, automatic differentiation, and integration with DNNs. We demonstrated JAX-CanVeg's hybrid modeling capability by applying the model at four flux tower sites with varying aridity. To this end, we developed a hybrid version of the Ball-Berry equation that emulates the water stress impact on stomatal closure to explore the capability of the hybrid model in (a) improving the simulations of latent heat fluxes (LE) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), (b) improving the optimization trade-off when learning observations of both LE and NEE, and (c) benefiting a multi-layer canopy model setup. Our results show that the proposed hybrid model improved the simulations of LE and NEE at all sites, with an improved optimization trade-off over the process-based model. Additionally, the multi-layer canopy set benefited hybrid modeling at some sites. Anchored in differentiable modeling, our study provides a new avenue for modeling land-atmosphere interactions by leveraging the benefits of both data-driven learning and process-based modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO 2 Sink and CH 4 and N 2 O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods

Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present-day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling and process-based models) and top-down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land-to-atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches show a sink of CO 2 in natural ecosystems (bottom-up: -29 (-709, 455), top-down: -587 (-862, -312) Tg CO 2 -C yr -1 ) and sources of CH 4 (bottom-up: 38 (22, 53), top-down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH 4 -C y -1 ) and N 2 O (bottom-up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top-down: 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N 2 O-N yr -1 ). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP-100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP-20), the region is a net GHG source because CH 4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO 2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO 2 emissions as well as CH 4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N 2 O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process-based models and the compilation of process-model ensembles for CH 4 and N 2 O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well-distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systems engineering studies of on-orbit assembly operation

While the practice of construction has a long history, the underlying theory of construction is relatively young. Very little has been documented as to techniques of logistic support, construction planning, construction scheduling, construction testing, and inspection. The lack of 'systems approaches' to construction processes is certainly one of the most serious roadblocks to the construction of space structures. System engineering research efforts at CSC are aimed at developing concepts and tools which contribute to a systems theory of space construction. The research is also aimed at providing means for trade-offs of design parameters for other research areas in CSC. Systems engineering activity at CSC has divided space construction into the areas of orbital assembly, lunar base construction, interplanetary transport vehicle construction, and Mars base construction. A brief summary of recent results is given. Several models for 'launch-on-time' were developed. Launch-on-time is a critical concept to the assembly of such Earth-orbiting structures as the Space Station Freedom, and to planetary orbiters such as the Mars transfer vehicle. CSC has developed a launch vehicle selection model which uses linear programming to find optimal combinations of launch vehicles of various sizes (Atlas, Titan, Shuttles, HLLV's) to support SEI missions. Recently, the Center developed a cost trade-off model for studying on orbit assembly logistics. With this model it was determined that the most effective size of the HLLV would be in the range of 120 to 200 metric tons to LEO, which is consistent with the choices of General Stafford's Synthesis Group Report. A second-generation Dynamic Construction Activities Model ('DYCAM') process model has been under development, based on our past results in interruptability and our initial DYCAM model. This second-generation model is built on the paradigm of knowledge-based expert systems. It is aimed at providing answers to two questions: (1) what are some necessary or sufficient conditions for judging conceptual designs of spacecraft?, and (2) can a methodology be formulated such that these conditions may be used to provide computer-aided tools for evaluating conceptual designs and planning for space assembly sequences? Early simulation results indicate that the DYCAM model has a clear ability to emulate and simulate human orbital construction processes.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗

Modeling of the HiPco process for carbon nanotube production. II. Reactor-scale analysis

The high-pressure carbon monoxide (HiPco) process, developed at Rice University, has been reported to produce single-walled carbon nanotubes from gas-phase reactions of iron carbonyl in carbon monoxide at high pressures (10-100 atm). Computational modeling is used here to develop an understanding of the HiPco process. A detailed kinetic model of the HiPco process that includes of the precursor, decomposition metal cluster formation and growth, and carbon nanotube growth was developed in the previous article (Part I). Decomposition of precursor molecules is necessary to initiate metal cluster formation. The metal clusters serve as catalysts for carbon nanotube growth. The diameter of metal clusters and number of atoms in these clusters are some of the essential information for predicting carbon nanotube formation and growth, which is then modeled by the Boudouard reaction with metal catalysts. Based on the detailed model simulations, a reduced kinetic model was also developed in Part I for use in reactor-scale flowfield calculations. Here this reduced kinetic model is integrated with a two-dimensional axisymmetric reactor flow model to predict reactor performance. Carbon nanotube growth is examined with respect to several process variables (peripheral jet temperature, reactor pressure, and Fe(CO)5 concentration) with the use of the axisymmetric model, and the computed results are compared with existing experimental data. The model yields most of the qualitative trends observed in the experiments and helps to understanding the fundamental processes in HiPco carbon nanotube production.

Validation Studies↗

Inference, Prediction, & Entropy-Rate Estimation of Continuous-Time, Discrete-Event Processes

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide new methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating them. The methods rely on an extension of Bayesian structural inference that takes advantage of neural network’s universal approximation power. Based on experiments with complex synthetic data, the methods are competitive with the state-of-the-art for prediction and entropy-rate estimation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis: Tool Development and Method Evaluation

This report is an update to a prior report that describes progress and findings for a program of research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and throughout the plant, along with a greater interest in the use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed early in the design process. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical systems theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is primarily intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control, feedback, and communication relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. We have employed two STAMP-based tools in this effort. The first is Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST), an accident and incident analysis technique that was used to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant involving the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. The second tool is Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) which is a proactive risk analysis tool used to examine existing and potential, planned sociotechnical systems. STPA was used to identify risk factors in the current design of a generic nuclear power plant (NPP) preventive maintenance system. Our analyses focused on identifying near-term system improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived time and schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the eventual event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. STPA findings exposed several areas of concern in the design of current preventive maintenance systems. We also present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution (PIR) model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system and represents an end-state vision for our work. From our results, we have generated an initial set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints for these models. We have also focused on early development of easy to learn, easy to use “transportable” tools for sociotechnical systems analysis. We intend these to be used by NPP personnel as a means of gaining reliable and relatively quick insight into (1) sociotechnical systems factors impacting incidents and accidents, (2) potential sociotechnical risk factors in existing or planned system designs, and (3) potential weaknesses in a system’s safety and/or information control structure. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations, a discussion of planned and potential follow-on research and development, and a draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Characterizing the Variation and Covariation of Cloud Microphysical Properties and Implications for Simulation of Subgrid-scale Warm-Rain Processes in Earth System Models (Final DOE-ASR Report)

Warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds constitute an important component in the global climate system, and precipitation plays a central role in controlling the water budget, radiative effects, and lifetime of these MBL clouds. Unfortunately, because of the relatively coarse effective grid resolution of the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs), the variety of cloud microphysical processes occurring inside an ESM grid cell are often oversimplified or unconstrained by observations. For example, the warm rain processes (e.g., autoconversion and accretion) are usually parameterized as nonlinear functions of grid-mean cloud properties. Because of the nonlinear nature of these functions, neglecting variability within the ESM grid volume can lead to substantial biases in precipitation production, cloud cover, and surface radiative fluxes. In state-of-the art ESMs, the influence of subgrid-scale variability is represented as an enhancement factor (EF) coefficient to the autoconversion, and accretion rates calculated from the model variables. However, EF is typically taken to be a constant or even used as a knob to tune model cloud properties to match observations, an ad hoc approach that may yield a desired cloud outcome yet introduce compensating errors. In this project, we used the combination of in situ cloud microphysics measurements from the ACE-ENA field campaign and large-eddy simulations (LES) to characterize and understand subgrid-scale variations and co-variations of cloud microphysical properties and use the results to evaluate and improve the representation of subgrid warm-rain processes in ESMs, in particular the EF used to tune the autoconversion and accretion processes. In this final report, we summarize our research activities and main findings in Section 2, provide a list of publications (Section 3) and presentations (Section 4) resulted from our research, and briefly discuss the student activities supported by this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗