SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,495 records · Page 83

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Mastering HPC Runtime Prediction: From Observing Patterns to a Methodological Approach: Preprint

The continual expansion of high-performance computing (HPC) brings with it an increasing need for efficiency. Heavy investment in energy, hardware, and software infrastructure to support peta- and exascale computing requires the optimization of existing systems and, wherever possible, the discernment and adoption of best-practices towards these goals. Such is the case for runtime prediction. When a job is submitted to an HPC system, an estimate of its runtime is provided by the user in the form of "requested wallclock''. Error in this user-provided estimate can lead to jobs being prematurely killed by the scheduler, increased wait time on the queue, and decreased system utilization. More than fifteen years of research has been directed at mitigating these effects by using data-driven runtime predictions. Codified here is a set of commonalities and insights emerging from this body of work, which we present as recommendations and best practices. These practices are combined into a methodological approach described and evaluated on an 11-million-job dataset from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's petascale HPC system, Eagle. This dataset and the accompanying codebase have been released to the public domain for the benefit of the wider HPC research community.

high performance computing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Toward the Prediction and Control of Glass Transition Temperature for Donor–Acceptor Polymers

Semiconducting donor–acceptor (D–A) polymers have attracted considerable attention toward the application of organic electronic and optoelectronic devices. However, a rational design rule for making semiconducting polymers with desired thermal and mechanical properties is currently lacking, which greatly limits the development of new polymers for advanced applications. Here, polydiketopyrrolopyrrole (PDPP)-based D–A polymers with varied alkyl side-chain lengths and backbone moieties are systematically designed, followed by investigating their thermal and thin film mechanical responses. The experimental results show a reduction in both elastic modulus and glass transition temperature (Tg) with increasing side-chain length, which is further verified through coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. Informed from experimental results, a mass-per-flexible bond model is developed to capture such observation through a linear correlation between Tg and polymer chain flexibility. Using this model, a wide range of backbone Tg over 80 °C and elastic modulus over 400 MPa can be predicted for PDPP-based polymers. This study highlights the important role of side-chain structure in influencing the thermomechanical performance of conjugated polymers, and provides an effective strategy to design and predict Tg and elastic modulus of future new D–A polymers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quasi‐Binary Transition Metal Dichalcogenide Alloys: Thermodynamic Stability Prediction, Scalable Synthesis, and Application

Abstract Transition metal dichalcogenide (TMDCs) alloys could have a wide range of physical and chemical properties, ranging from charge density waves to superconductivity and electrochemical activities. While many exciting behaviors of unary TMDCs have been demonstrated, the vast compositional space of TMDC alloys has remained largely unexplored due to the lack of understanding regarding their stability when accommodating different cations or chalcogens in a single‐phase. Here, a theory‐guided synthesis approach is reported to achieve unexplored quasi‐binary TMDC alloys through computationally predicted stability maps. Equilibrium temperature–composition phase diagrams using first‐principles calculations are generated to identify the stability of 25 quasi‐binary TMDC alloys, including some involving non‐isovalent cations and are verified experimentally through the synthesis of a subset of 12 predicted alloys using a scalable chemical vapor transport method. It is demonstrated that the synthesized alloys can be exfoliated into 2D structures, and some of them exhibit: i) outstanding thermal stability tested up to 1230 K, ii) exceptionally high electrochemical activity for the CO 2 reduction reaction in a kinetically limited regime with near zero overpotential for CO formation, iii) excellent energy efficiency in a high rate Li–air battery, and iv) high break‐down current density for interconnect applications. This framework can be extended to accelerate the discovery of other TMDC alloys for various applications.

Hemmat, Zahra↗

DOE OSTI2021

Guiding the Design of Heterogeneous Electrode Microstructures for Li-Ion Batteries: Microscopic Imaging, Predictive Modeling, and Machine Learning

Electrochemical and mechanical properties of lithium-ion battery materials are heavily dependent on their 3D microstructure characteristics. A quantitative understanding of the role played by stochastic microstructures is critical for the prediction of material properties and for guiding synthesis processes. Furthermore, tailoring microstructure morphology is also a viable way of achieving optimal electrochemical and mechanical performances of lithium-ion cells. To facilitate the establishment of microstructure-resolved modeling and design methods, a review covering spatially and temporally resolved imaging of microstructure and electrochemical phenomena, microstructure statistical characterization and stochastic reconstruction, microstructure-resolved modeling for property prediction, and machine learning for microstructure design is presented here. The perspectives on the unresolved challenges and opportunities in applying experimental data, modeling, and machine learning to improve the understanding of materials and identify paths toward enhanced performance of lithium-ion cells are presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI‐Driven Robot Enables Synthesis‐Property Relation Prediction for Metal Halide Perovskites in Humid Atmosphere

Materials Acceleration Platforms (MAPs) – also known as self-driving laboratories– present a new paradigm for materials science and promise an order of magnitude accelerated materials discovery compared to the traditional trial-and-error approach. Metal halide perovskites (MHPs) are an emerging class of materials for optoelectronic applications but are plagued by irreproducible optoelectronic quality, particularly for films fabricated in a humid atmosphere. Here, in this work, a machine learning (ML)-guided closed-loop platform is developed with a multimodal data fusion approach to predict synthesis–property relations for the optical quality of MHP thin films in relative humidities (RHs) ranging from 5–55%. The efficiency of this approach is confirmed by the fast-dropping learning rate to 2% after experimentally sampling less than 1% of the possible 5,000+ combinations. The prediction of synthesis–property relations is done by optical and imaging characterizations. In situ photoluminescence characterization revealed the origin of thin film quality variation at different RH. These insights provide an avenue for controlling the MHP crystallization by fine-tuning the synthesis parameters and RH for a given chemistry, thus lifting the need for stringent atmosphere control. The MAP enables an accelerated screening and understanding of the synthesis design space, facilitating rational synthesis recipe choice for a wide range of materials.

AI-driven robot↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine‐learning‐based construction of barrier functions and models for safe model predictive control

Abstract In this paper, we propose a control Lyapunov‐barrier function‐based model predictive control method utilizing a feed‐forward neural network specified control barrier function (CBF) and a recurrent neural network (RNN) predictive model to stabilize nonlinear processes with input constraints, and to guarantee that safety requirements are met for all times. The nonlinear system is first modeled using RNN techniques, and a CBF is characterized by constructing a feed‐forward neural network (FNN) model with unique structures and properties. The FNN model for the CBF is trained based on data samples collected from safe and unsafe operating regions, and the resulting FNN model is verified to demonstrate that the safety properties of the CBF are satisfied. Given sufficiently small bounded modeling errors for both the FNN and the RNN models, the proposed control system is able to guarantee closed‐loop stability while preventing the closed‐loop states from entering unsafe regions in state‐space under sample‐and‐hold control action implementation. We provide the theoretical analysis for bounded unsafe sets in state‐space, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy using a nonlinear chemical process example with a bounded unsafe region.

Chen, Scarlett↗

DOE OSTI2022

A graph signal processing‐based multiple model Kalman filter ( GSP‐MMKF ) tool for predictive analytics: An air separation unit process application

Abstract The industrial Air Separations Unit (ASU) is a complicated and tightly operated process. The use of dynamic process analytics is also a key element of safe and economic operation of these processes, with increasing focus on predictive analytics to take preemptive actions. With the availability of real‐time data from hundreds of sensors, the data analysis process should also consider the topology of the data, as seen in sensor networks. In this paper, a novel tool is presented that considers the complex connectivity patterns in the sensor network and uses local adaptive disturbance estimations to predict global network‐scale trends. The paper introduces the emerging field of Graph Signal Processing (GSP) and presents a rigorous derivation of the tool starting from the extraction of the sensor‐network (in a graph theoretical sense) from the data. This network, which is in the form of a matrix, is then used to derive a Kalman‐filter type of state‐space model driven by input disturbances. Multiple disturbance models (e.g., step, ramp, periodic) are included to allow the model to have different kinds of disturbance propagation. Each graph node (representing the sensors used) dynamically adapts to the most recent detected disturbance individually. These estimated disturbances are propagated to the global network using the graph. Modifications to ensure stability are also discussed. The fidelity of the tool is tested on certain downtime events and the paper concludes by discussing the advantages of the method and planned future improvements.

Ghosh, Sambit↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Reactive Nitrous Acid Formation in Rare‐Earth MOFs via ab initio Molecular Dynamics

Abstract Reactive gas formation in pores of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) is a known mechanism of framework destruction; understanding those mechanisms for future durability design is key to next generation adsorbents. Herein, an extensive set of ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations are used for the first time to predict competitive adsorption of mixed acid gases (NO 2 and H 2 O) and the in‐pore reaction mechanisms for a series of rare earth (RE)‐DOBDC MOFs. Spontaneous formation of nitrous acid (HONO) is identified as a result of deprotonation of the MOF organic linker, DOBDC. The unique DOBDC coordination to the metal clusters allows for proton transfer from the linker to the NO 2 without the presence of H 2 O and may be a factor in DOBDC MOF durability. This is a previously unreported mechanisms of HONO formation in MOFs. With the presented methodology, prediction of future gas interactions in new nanoporous materials can be achieved.

Vogel, Dayton J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the Solubility of Inorganic Ion Pairs in Water

Abstract Polyoxometalates (POMs), ranging in size from 1 to 10’s of nanometers, resemble building blocks of inorganic materials. Elucidating their complex solubility behavior with alkali‐counterions can inform natural and synthetic aqueous processes. In the study of POMs ([Nb 24 O 72 H 9 ] 15− , Nb 24 ) we discovered an unusual solubility trend (termed anomalous solubility) of alkali‐POMs, in which Nb 24 is most soluble with the smallest (Li + ) and largest (Rb/Cs + ) alkalis, and least soluble with Na/K + . Via computation, we define a descriptor (σ‐profile) and use an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict all three described alkali‐anion solubility trends: amphoteric, normal (Li + >Na + >K + >Rb + >Cs + ), and anomalous (Cs + >Rb + >K + >Na + >Li + ). Testing predicted amphoteric solubility affirmed the accuracy of the descriptor, provided solution‐phase snapshots of alkali–POM interactions, yielded a new POM formulated [Ti 6 Nb 14 O 54 ] 14− , and provides guidelines to exploit alkali–POM interactions for new POMs discovery.

Rahman, Tasnim↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Reactive Nitrous Acid Formation in Rare‐Earth MOFs via ab initio Molecular Dynamics

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the Solubility of Inorganic Ion Pairs in Water

Polyoxometalates (POMs), ranging in size from 1 to 10’s of nanometers, resemble building blocks of inorganic materials. Elucidating their complex solubility behavior with alkali-counterions can inform natural and synthetic aqueous processes. Here in the study of POMs ([Nb 24 O 72 H 9 ] 15- , Nb 24 ) we discovered an unusual solubility trend (termed anomalous solubility) of alkali-POMs, in which Nb 24 is most soluble with the smallest (Li + ) and largest (Rb/Cs + ) alkalis, and least soluble with Na/K + . Via computation, we define a descriptor (σ-profile) and use an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict all three described alkali-anion solubility trends: amphoteric, normal (Li + >Na + >K + >Rb + >Cs + ), and anomalous (Cs + >Rb + >K + >Na + >Li + ). Testing predicted amphoteric solubility affirmed the accuracy of the descriptor, provided solution-phase snapshots of alkali–POM interactions, yielded a new POM formulated [Ti 6 Nb 14 O 54 ] 14- , and provides guidelines to exploit alkali–POM interactions for new POMs discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of curing kinetics of resorcinol‐added resole phenolic resins using differential scanning calorimetry for the fabrication of carbon/carbon composites

Phenolic resins are commonly used as carbon precursors for the fabrication of carbon/carbon composites due to their high carbon yield and aromatic nature. To decrease curing times, acid catalysts are generally used, but the addition of resorcinol was found to have a similar effect while being incorporated into the resin matrix with no contamination or corrosion issues. In this work, the curing kinetics of pure, 10, 20, and 30 wt% resorcinol-added phenolic resins were investigated through differential scanning calorimetry. Heating rates of 0.5, 1, 2.5, and 5°C min -1 were used with several curing models to predict isothermal curing. Averaged mean absolute error (MAE) for the isoconversional mathematical approaches namely Kissinger–Akahira–Sunose (MAE = 12.9 min), Flynn–Wall–Ozawa (15.8 min), and Vyazovkin (14 min) show that these methods provide the best predictions, attributed to their adoption of an activation energy that depends on the extent of cure (E a (α)). The Kissinger method (MAE = 36 min), which depends only on peak temperature with a constant activation energy assumption, and the data noise sensitive Friedman model (MAE = 1144.7 min) provide the least accurate results. Thermogravimetric analysis revealed that resorcinol decreases the curing times by up to 71% without lowering carbon yield.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

ReaxFF reactive force field model enables accurate prediction of physiochemical and mechanical properties of crystalline and amorphous shape‐memory polyurethane

Abstract We investigate reactive force field (ReaxFF) prediction of physiochemical and mechanical properties, and stimuli response behavior of a shape‐memory polyurethane (SMPU) rigid segment. We used SMPUs as a platform to link the rigid/hard segment domain crystallinity with properties that can also be experimentally measured. Specifically, we developed models for crystalline and amorphous forms of a common rigid segment of SMPUs, for example, 4,4′‐diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI) with n‐butanediol (BDO), denoted as MDI‐BDO. ReaxFF molecular dynamics simulations with equilibrium dynamics are performed by controlling mass, temperature, and pressure or volume to predict the structural and physiochemical properties of crystalline and amorphous rigid segments of SMPU systems, followed by simulating their XRD and FTIR patterns, respectively. Non‐equilibrium ReaxFF simulations are implemented by using uniaxial box deformation technique to study response‐behavior of crystalline SMPU under tensile loading and during stress‐relaxation. The model and simulation scheme presented in this study demonstrates a robust theoretical pathway toward application‐dictated, on‐demand design of high‐performance SMPUs in applications such as soft robotics.

Afroz, Mohammad M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward a Generalizable Prediction Model of Molten Salt Mixture Density with Chemistry‐Informed Transfer Learning

Optimally designing applications of molten salts requires knowledge of their thermophysical properties over a wide range of temperatures and compositions. There exist significant gaps in existing databases and this data can be challenging to experimentally measure due to high temperatures, salt corrosivity, and salt hygroscopicity. Existing databases have been used to create Redlich–Kister (RK) models for mixture density showing improved accuracy with respect to ideal mixing assumptions, but these models require subcomponent data measurements for each new system, therefore lacking generality. In order to address generalizability and data sparsity, a transfer learning procedure is proposed to train deep neural networks (DNNs) using a combination of semi‐empirical relationships (RK), data from the thermophysical arm of the molten salt thermal properties database and universal ab initio properties of component mixtures taken from the joint automated repository for various integrated simulations (JARVIS) classical force‐field inspired descriptors database to predict density in molten salts. Herein, it is shown that DNNs predict molten salt density with an r 2 over 0.99 and a mean absolute percentage error under 1%, outperforming alternative methods.

inorganic materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Connectivity, Pathology, and ApoE4 Interactions Predict Longitudinal Tau Spatial Progression and Memory

ABSTRACT Tau pathology spread into neocortex indicates a transition from healthy aging to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Connectivity between tau epicenters and later accumulating regions of cortex has been proposed as a mechanism of tau spread, but how this relationship changes with greater AD pathology burden or genotype is not understood. We investigated tau accumulation in two key regions, precuneus and inferior temporal cortex, using resting state functional connectivity (rsFC) and longitudinal PET imaging from a multicohort sample of cognitively unimpaired older adults. We examined how baseline tau PET, Aβ PET, and ApoE4 genotype status interact with rsFC between hippocampus and these downstream regions to predict rate of tau accumulation in neocortex. We found that the 3‐way interaction between connectivity, baseline tau, and baseline Aβ or ApoE4 status was associated with neocortical tau accumulation in precuneus and inferior temporal cortex. In addition, baseline tau, Aβ, and ApoE4 status also moderated the association between connectivity and rate of memory decline. Together, these results suggest that the extent and distribution of future tau accumulation may be predicted by the interaction of baseline connectivity, AD pathology, and genetic risk.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Emerging technologies and radical collaboration to advance predictive understanding of watershed hydrobiogeochemistry

Increasing population and resource-intensive lifestyles are driving enhanced demands for clean water, food, and energy. In parallel, land-use change, climate change, and perturbations—including drought, floods, fires, and early snowmelt—are significantly reshaping interactions within watersheds throughout the world. While watersheds are the Earth's key functional unit for assessing and managing water resources, hydrological processes in watersheds also mediate biogeochemical interactions that support terrestrial life on Earth (Kaushal, Gold, Bernal, & Tank, 2018; National Research Council, 2012). Although society is dependent upon clean water availability, tractable prediction of watershed hydrobiogeochemical behavior, including watershed response to perturbations, remains a challenge. Central to the challenge are complex, multiscale interactions between plants, microorganisms, organic matter, minerals, dissolved constituents, and migrating fluids, which occur within and across bedrock-to-canopy compartments and along extensive lateral gradients of a watershed. Several recent community reports have synthesized formidable challenges associated with watershed science and technology (AGU, 2018; Blöschl et al., 2019). Here, we discuss emerging technologies and collaboration modes that are critical for developing generalizable insights about and predictive understanding of complex watershed hydrobiogeochemical behavior, which are important for underpinning optimized natural resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗