Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “performance prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Benchmark Study on Innovative Fuels for Fast Reactors with fuel performance codes

The Working Party on the Scientific Issues of the Fuel Cycle (WPFC) has been established under the auspices of the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Nuclear Science Committee (NSC), to co-ordinate scientific activities regarding various existing and advanced nuclear fuel cycles, including advanced reactor systems, associated chemistry and flowsheets, development and performance of fuels and materials, accelerators and spallation targets. Various expert groups were established to cover the above-mentioned topics. Within the WPFC, the Expert Group on Innovative Fuels (EGIF) was created with the objective of conducting joint and comparative studies to support the development of innovative fuels such as homogeneous and heterogeneous fuels, ADS fuels, and oxide, metal, nitride and carbide fuels, all of which can be implemented in advanced nuclear fuel cycles with fast reactors. The scope of the expert group covers innovative fuel fabrication techniques, irradiation performance of innovative fuels, characterisation and post-irradiation examination methods and predictive codes for innovative fuel fabrication and performance. This report presents the results of a benchmark study on innovative fuels for fast reactors using fuel performance codes. Irradiation results were shared among participants, and code calculations were performed to gain further insights on the fuel behaviour. Each participating institution used its own fuel performance code. Code to code and code to experiment comparisons are expected to provide data and improve understanding on the effects of minor actinides on fuel behaviour. In conclusion, the need for improvement of codes will be evaluated and the needs for new experimental data will be identified in order to finalise the code validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

PARFUME/BISON Fission Product Release Predictions versus AGR-3/4 Heating Test Measurements

The fuel performance modeling codes PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) and BISON were used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, and strontium from as-irradiated fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during heating tests post irradiation. The AGR-3/4 fuel compacts were irradiated as part of the third and fourth series of planned experiments to support the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program. The heating tests were conducted at temperatures between 1200°C and 1700°C to simulate reactor accident conditions. The measured fission product release fractions from the heating tests were compared to modeling predictions calculated by PARFUME and BISON to evaluate how the codes compare to experimental results. Comparisons between the experimental measured fission product release fractions from silver, cesium and strontium indicate that both modeling codes overpredict the fission product release fractions demonstrating that the diffusivities used in the codes are overestimated. This results in a conservative estimate predicted by the codes when evaluating the fission product release relative to experimental data as it pertains to silver, cesium, and strontium.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Using High-Fidelity Multiphysics Simulations

The US nuclear industry is looking to improve on the operating economics of the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs). One way of achieving this is by operating fuel to higher burnup. In pressurized water reactors (PWRs), relaxing the current burnup limit will allow for cycle length extensions and power uprates; in boiling water reactors (BWRs) it may allow for improved fuel utilization and reduced feed assemblies, as well as more efficient power uprates and increased capacity factors that will support the Administration’s Executive Order to facilitate 5 GW of power uprates at existing nuclear facilities. However, one of the key limitations to operating fuel to higher burnup is the risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Recognizing the high interest in extending burnup limits, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1434, which defines an approach that would be acceptable to the NRC for addressing FFRD risk. The approach defined will require better understanding of the phenomena leading to FFRD as well as best-estimate simulation methods to understand FFRD risk in high-burnup cores. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is supporting the FFRD industry challenge problem through development of state-of-the-art, high-fidelity modeling and simulation LWR analysis capabilities; namely, the BISON fuel performance code and the VERA core simulator software. These tools, along with the US NRC TRACE system analysis code, have been utilized for analysis of FFRD risk in both PWR and BWR cores in recent years. The work documented in this report addresses the lack of high-fidelity research for BWRs and builds on a previous activity where the framework has been applied to Cycles 16 through 18 of Limerick Unit 1, a BWR/4, with introduction of 8 high-burnup lead use assemblies (HBLUAs) that were representative of the 8 HBLUAs loaded into Limerick Unit 2 in 2021. VERA was used in this previous activity to model rod-by-rod depletion in these cycles, and its solution was used to initialize a TRACE simulation of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) at the end of Cycle 18. In the work documented in this report, the TRACE model was improved by refining the core mesh and utilizing a new feature that allows for capturing the full 3D VERA power distribution in the model. This allows for a more detailed solution for setting BISON boundary conditions. Furthermore, the solutions from VERA and TRACE were used to set up and perform BISON simulations of about 1,000 rods sampled from the core, including all burnup levels. Utilizing two cladding burst models, it was shown that no fuel rods were predicted to burst during the postulated LBLOCA transient. Additionally, a sensitivity study was performed by artificially increasing linear heat rate during the postulated LBLOCA to identify parameters that correlate with rod burst susceptibility. Burnup, fission gas release, and hoop strain were all found to be positively correlated with rod burst susceptibility. Small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) analyses were also performed; these analyses predicted cladding temperature increases that were bounded by the LBLOCA cladding temperatures for all small break sizes studied for this plant. However, future refinements to the plant response assumptions during the SBLOCA could impact the predicted cladding response. Finally, a benchmark study was performed between CTF and TRACE for LOCA conditions to better qualify CTF for BWR LOCA modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Very massive tracers and higher derivative biases

Most of the upcoming cosmological information will come from analyzing the clustering of the Large Scale Structures (LSS) of the universe through LSS or CMB observations. It is therefore essential to be able to understand their behavior with exquisite precision. The Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures (EFTofLSS) provides a consistent framework to make predictions for LSS observables in the mildly non-linear regime. Herein we focus on biased tracers. We argue that in calculations at a given order in the dark matter perturbations, highly biased tracers will underperform because of their larger higher derivative biases. A natural prediction of the EFTofLSS is therefore that by simply adding higher derivative biases, highly massive tracers should perform comparably well. We implement this prediction for the halo-halo and the halo-matter power spectra at one loop, and the halo-halo-halo, halo-halo-matter, and halo-matter-matter bispectra at tree-level, and compare with simulations. We find good agreement with the prediction: at $z$ = 0, for all tracers, we are able to match the power spectra up to $k ≃$ 0.28$h$ Mpc -1 , as well as a small set of about 10 2 bispectra triangles up to $k ≃$ 0.17$h$ Mpc -1 . We also discuss the limitations of our study and some avenues to pursue to further establish these findings.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The search for high-entropy fuel-cell catalysts using disorder descriptors

The transition to a hydrogen economy depends on efficient, affordable catalysts for fuel cells. Platinum—the industry standard for fuel-cell electrodes—is costly and scarce, highlighting the need for practical alternatives. High-entropy alloys offer vast compositional diversity and tunable properties that can mitigate these issues, yet their chemical complexity and configurational disorder have hindered rational discovery. Here, we introduce a data-driven framework that couples machine learning with first-principles disorder descriptors—including the entropy forming ability, disordered enthalpy-entropy descriptor, and electronic-structure similarity metrics to platinum—to predict alloy synthesizability and catalytic performance. These descriptors are applied for the first time in the context of fuel-cell catalyst discovery. The workflow rapidly screens more than 20 000 compositions and identifies several platinum-free candidates that are economically viable, readily scalable, and exhibit promising predicted activity. These results demonstrate that disorder descriptors are reliably predicted by machine learning models and can be effectively integrated into materials-discovery pipelines, accelerating innovation across complex compositional spaces.

fuel-cell catalysts↗

Metal-Coordinated Phthalocyanines as Platform Molecules for Understanding Isolated Metal Sites in the Electrochemical Reduction of CO 2

Single-atom catalysts (SACs) of non-precious transition metals (TMs) often show unique electrochemical performance, including the electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO 2 RR). However, the inhomogeneity in their structures makes it difficult to directly compare SACs of different TM for their CO 2 RR activity, selectivity, and reaction mechanisms. Here, the comparison of isolated TMs (Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn) is systematically investigated using a series of crystalline molecular catalysts, namely TM-coordinated phthalocyanines (TMPcs), to directly compare the intrinsic role of the TMs with identical local coordination environments on the CO 2 RR performance. The combined experimental measurements, in situ characterization, and density functional theory calculations of TM-Pc catalysts reveal a TM dependent CO 2 RR activity and selectivity, with the free energy difference of ΔG(*HOCO) - ΔG(*CO) being identified as a descriptor for predicting the CO 2 RR performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Quantum-Chemically Informed Machine Learning: Prediction of Energies of Organic Molecules with 10 to 14 Non-hydrogen Atoms

High-fidelity quantum-chemical calculations can provide accurate predictions of molecular energies, but their high computational costs limit their utility, especially for larger molecules. We have shown in previous work that machine learning models trained on high-level quantum-chemical calculations (G4MP2) for organic molecules with one to nine non-hydrogen atoms can provide accurate predictions for other molecules of comparable size at much lower costs. Here we demonstrate that such models can also be used to effectively predict energies of molecules larger than those in the training set. To implement this strategy, we first established a set of 191 molecules with 10–14 non-hydrogen atoms having reliable experimental enthalpies of formation. We then assessed the accuracy of computed G4MP2 enthalpies of formation for these 191 molecules. The error in the G4MP2 results was somewhat larger than that for smaller molecules, and the reason for this increase is discussed. Two density functional methods, B3LYP and ωB97X-D, were also used on this set of molecules, with ωB97X-D found to perform better than B3LYP at predicting energies. The G4MP2 energies for the 191 molecules were then predicted using these two functionals with two machine learning methods, the FCHL-Δ and SchNet-Δ models, with the learning done on calculated energies of the one to nine non-hydrogen atom molecules. The better-performing model, FCHL-Δ, gave atomization energies of the 191 organic molecules with 10–14 non-hydrogen atoms within 0.4 kcal/mol of their G4MP2 energies. Thus, this work demonstrates that quantum-chemically informed machine learning can be used to successfully predict the energies of large organic molecules whose size is beyond that in the training set.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Understanding the role of segmentation on process-structure–property predictions made via machine learning

Here, the present study investigated the effect of porosity surface determination methods on performance of machine learning models used to predict the tensile properties of AlSi10Mg processed by laser powder bed fusion from micro-computed tomography data. Machine learning models applied in this work include support vector machines, neural networks, decision trees, and Bayesian classifiers. The effects of isosurface thresholding and local gradient approaches for porosity segmentation, as well as image filtering schemes, on model precision were evaluated for samples produced under differing levels of global energy density.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Computational thermodynamics-guided alloy design and phase stability in CoCrFeMnNi-based medium-and high-entropy alloys: An experimental-theoretical study

A computational thermodynamics approach has been employed to design CoCrFeMnNi-based medium- and high-entropy alloys (M/HEAs) with systematically varied compositions (Co(( 80-X )/ 2 )Cr(( 80-X )/ 2 )Fe X Mn 10 Ni 10 with x = 30, 40, and 50 at.%) and phase stability. Since the formation of sigma phase, usually brittle and undesirable, is a common concern, when this class of alloys is subjected to elevated temperatures (600–1000 °C), predicting its formation becomes essential. Thus, its formation and the phase equilibria were studied using the CALPHAD method, and two empirical methods, namely, valence electron concentration (VEC) and paired sigma-forming element (PSFE). Isothermal aging treatments at 900–1100 °C for 20 h were performed, since CALPHAD and VEC/PSFE predictions diverged. Both prediction methods were compared with experimental characterization by a combination of scanning electron microscopy and high-energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction. In conclusion, the predictions from the VEC/PSFE and CALPHAD calculations (depending on the database used) were shown to be quite accurate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Inclusive Search for Anomalous Single-Photon Production in MicroBooNE

We present an inclusive search for anomalous production of single-photon events from neutrino interactions in the MicroBooNE experiment. The search and its signal definition are motivated by the previous observation of a low-energy excess of electromagnetic shower events from the MiniBooNE experiment. We use the Wire-Cell reconstruction framework to select a sample of inclusive single-photon final-state interactions with a final efficiency and purity of 7.0% and 40.2%, respectively. We leverage simultaneous measurements of sidebands of charged current 𝜈 𝜇 interactions and neutral current interactions producing 𝜋 0 mesons to constrain signal and background predictions and reduce uncertainties. We perform a blind analysis using a dataset collected from February 2016 to July 2018, corresponding to an exposure of 6.34 × 10 20 protons on target from the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. In the full signal region, we observe agreement between the data and the prediction, with a goodness-of-fit 𝑝 value of 0.11. We then isolate a subsample of these events containing no visible protons, and observe 93 ± 22⁢(stat) ±35⁢(syst) data events above prediction, corresponding to just above 2⁢𝜎 local significance, concentrated at shower energies below 600 MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Materials Development and Advanced Process Simulation for Additive Manufacturing with Fiber-Reinforced Thermoplastics (Final Technical Report)

DuPont, Local Motors, and the Composites Manufacturing and Simulation Center (CMSC) at Purdue worked together to advance process simulation capabilities for Additive Manufacturing (AM) and develop printable short fiber reinforced semi-crystalline engineering thermoplastics suitable for vehicle components. DuPont provided one candidate thermoplastic material, which was evaluated against the following three criteria: 1) Printability using extrusion additive manufacturing processes. 2) Suitability for vehicle applications based on mechanical coupon screening tests. 3) Predictive capability of process simulations. Indiana Manufacturing Institute provided modeling and simulation technology and access to Purdue’s lab scale AM printer. Local Motors provided mechanical property requirements and printed demonstration prototype components using their Thermwood Large Scale Additive Manufacturing (LSAM) printer. To meet the performance and cost requirements of the automotive industry, high fiber content semi-crystalline engineering materials are required. Printing experience and property data for a 50% by weight short glass fiber reinforced material were gathered. Further, material properties required for simulating the printing process with the glass-fiber reinforced material were characterized. Knowledge was acquired with regards to the processability and performance of this thermoplastic material. Predictions of part deformation and crystallinity level were verified against experimental observations. Any significant results other than verification of simulation, e.g., novel material identified here would be impactful.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards a robust out-of-the-box neural network model for genomic data

The accurate prediction of biological features from genomic data is paramount for precision medicine and sustainable agriculture. For decades, neural network models have been widely popular in fields like computer vision, astrophysics and targeted marketing given their prediction accuracy and their robust performance under big data settings. Yet neural network models have not made a successful transition into the medical and biological world due to the ubiquitous characteristics of biological data such as modest sample sizes, sparsity, and extreme heterogeneity. Here, we investigate the robustness, generalization potential and prediction accuracy of widely used convolutional neural network and natural language processing models with a variety of heterogeneous genomic datasets. Mainly, recurrent neural network models outperform convolutional neural network models in terms of prediction accuracy, overfitting and transferability across the datasets under study. While the perspective of a robust out-of-the-box neural network model is out of reach, we identify certain model characteristics that translate well across datasets and could serve as a baseline model for translational researchers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predicted Impacts of Pt and Ionomer Distributions on Low-Pt-Loaded PEMFC Performance

Low-cost, high performance proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) have been difficult to develop due to limited understanding of coupled processes in the cathode catalyst layer (CCL). Low-Pt-loaded PEMFCs suffer losses beyond those predicted solely due to reduced catalyst area. Although consensus links these losses to thin ionomer films in the CCL, a precise mechanistic explanation remains elusive. In this publication, we present a physically based PEMFC model with novel structure-property relationships for thin-film Nafion, validated against PEMFC data with low Pt loading. Results suggest that flooding exacerbates kinetic limitations in low-loaded PEMFCs, shifting the Faradaic current distribution. As current density increases, protons travel further into the CCL, resulting in higher Ohmic overpotentials. We also present a parametric study of CCL design parameters. We find that graded Pt and ionomer loadings reduce Ohmic losses and flooding, but individually do not provide significant improvements. However, a dual-graded CCL (i.e., graded Pt and ionomer) is predicted to significantly improve the maximum power density and limiting current compared to uniformly loaded CCLs. This work highlights the importance of accurate transport parameters for thin-film Nafion and provides a pathway to low-cost PEMFCs via precise control of CCL microstructures.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Predicting Rupture Pressure and Leak Rate of Alloy 600 Tubes with ODSCC and Comparing with Test Results (Technical Letter Report)

This report summarizes structural integrity work performed for the U.S. NRC that predicts the rupture pressure and leak rate of flawed steam generator (SG) tubes. The work includes pressure testing of straight tubes with lab-induced outer diameter stress corrosion cracks (ODSCC). Existing models for predicting rupture pressure and leak rate of straight tubes with well-defined, rectangular, electro-discharge-machined (EDM) flaws were modified and used to predict the measured rupture pressures and leak rates from straight tubes with ODSCC. Models previously developed for EDM notches in straight tubes were modified for ODSCC by using the equivalent rectangular crack (ERC) method.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Intrinsic Exciton Photophysics of PbS Quantum Dots Revealed by Low-Temperature Single Nanocrystal Spectroscopy

With a tunable size-dependent photoluminescence (PL) over a wide infrared wavelength range, lead chalcogenide quantum dots (QDs) have attracted significant scientific and technological interest. Nevertheless, the investigation of intrinsic exciton photophysics at the single-QD level has remained a challenge. Herein, we present a comprehensive study of PL properties for the individual core/shell PbS/CdS QDs emissive near 1.0 eV. In contrast to the sub-meV spectral line widths observed for II/VI QDs, PbS/CdS QDs are predicted to possess broad homogeneous line widths. Performing spectroscopy at cryogenic (4 K) temperatures, we provide direct evidence confirming theoretical predictions, showing that intrinsic line widths for PbS/CdS QDs are in the range of 8–25 meV, with an average of 16.4 meV. In addition, low-temperature, single-QD spectroscopy reveals a broad low-energy side emission attributable to optical as well as localized acoustic phonon-assisted transitions. By tracking single QDs from 4 to 250 K, we were able to probe temperature-dependent evolutions of emission energy, line width, and line shape. Lastly, polarization-resolved PL imaging showed that PbS/CdS QDs are characterized by a 3D emission dipole, in contrast with the 2D dipole observed for CdSe QDs.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗