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NASA NTRS2023

Observations of Typhoon Generated Gravity Waves From the CIPS and AIRS Instruments and Comparison to the High-Resolution ECMWF Model

The satellite-based Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observed concentric gravity waves (GWs) generated by Typhoon Yutu in late October 2018. This work compares CIPS and AIRS nadir viewing observations of GWs at altitudes of 50–55 and 30–40 km, respectively, to simulations from the high-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and ECMWF reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Both ECMWF-IFS with 9 km and ERA5 with 31 km horizontal resolution show concentric GWs at similar locations and timing as the AIRS and CIPS observations. The GW wavelengths are ∼225–236 km in ECMWF-IFS simulations, which compares well with the wavelength inferred from the observations. After validation of ECMWF GWs, five category five typhoon events during 2018 are analyzed using ECMWF to obtain characteristics of concentric GWs in the Western Pacific regions. The amplitudes of GWs in the stratosphere are not strongly correlated with the strength of typhoons, but are controlled by background wind conditions. Our results confirm that amplitudes and shapes of concentric GWs observed in the stratosphere and lowermost mesosphere are heavily influenced by the background wind conditions.

gravity wave↗

NASA NTRS2024

Investigating Zonal Asymmetries in Stratospheric Ozone Trends From Satellite Limb Observations and a Chemical Transport Model

This study investigates the origin of a zonal asymmetry in stratospheric ozone trends at northern high latitudes, identified in satellite limb observations over the past two decades. We use a merged data set consisting of ozone profiles retrieved at the University of Bremen from SCIAMACHY and OMPS-LP measurements to derive ozone trends. We also use TOMCAT chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, forced by ERA5 reanalyses, to investigate the factors that drive the asymmetry observed in the long-term changes. By studying seasonally and longitudinally resolved observation-based ozone trends, we find, especially during spring, a well-pronounced asymmetry at polar latitudes with values up to +6 % per decade over Greenland and −5 % per decade over western Russia. The control CTM simulation agrees well with these observed trends, whereas sensitivity simulations indicate that chemical mechanisms involved in the production and removal of ozone, or their changes, are unlikely to explain the observed behavior. The decomposition of TOMCAT ozone time series and ERA5 geopotential height into the first two wavenumber components shows a clear correlation between the two variables in the middle stratosphere and demonstrates a weakening and a shift in the wavenumber-1 planetary wave activity over the past two decades. Finally, the analysis of the polar vortex position and strength points to a decadal oscillation with a reversal pattern at the beginning of the century. The same is found in the ozone trend asymmetry. This further stresses the link between changes in the polar vortex position and the identified ozone trend pattern.

Instrumentation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observing and Projecting the Lasting Fate of the Hunga Eruption on Atmospheric Water Vapor and Hydroxyl Radical

On 15th Jan. 2022 the submarine Hunga volcano erupted injecting approximately 0.5 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, but more significantly added 150-170 Tg of water vapor to the stratospheric background (over a 10% perturbation) in a matter of several hours. The sulfur dioxide rapidly converted to sulfate aerosol and along with water vapor, was transported around the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics into midlatitudes and beyond with some transport into the Northern Hemisphere. With a much longer lifetime than sulfate aerosol, measurable water vapor mass anomalies have persisted with only small losses over more than 2 years since the eruption and are likely to continue above background for the remainder of the decade. Satellite measurements from limb and nadir viewing observing instruments provide the information needed to reasonably initialize the Hunga eruption in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model using the “replay” framework coupled to the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) stratosphere-troposphere chemical mechanism for the recent past and have continued the simulations into the future with the free running chemistry climate model (CCM). Using a number of model ensemble members together with the satellite observations, we quantify how the Hunga eruption is perturbing atmospheric composition and climate and projecting the influences to come as the enhanced water vapor continues in the stratosphere with only very slow removal mechanisms. Modeling suggests that the water rich eruption enhanced stratospheric hydroxyl radiacal (OH) and is supported by the speed of the observed conversion of SO2 into sulfate aerosol. These simulations also suggest a significant reduction in tropospheric OH over the mid-high latitude Southern Hemisphere, which has implications for numerous species that are impacted by this radical. The Hunga eruption provides a useful test of chemistry climate models and an opportunity for observation-based process understanding and in making new connections.

Hunga volcano↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining The Nanoflare Heating Frequency of an X-Ray Bright Point Observed by MaGIXS

Nanoflares are thought to be one of the prime candidates that can heat the solar corona to its multi-million kelvin temperature. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with the present generation instruments, however their presence can be inferred by comparing simulated nanoflare-heated plasma emissions with the observed emission. Using HYDRAD coronal loop simulations, we model the emission from an X-ray bright point (XBP) observed by the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS), along with nearest-available observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and X-Ray Telescope (XRT) onboard Hinode observatory. The length and magnetic field strength of the coronal loops are derived from the linear-force-free extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetogram by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard SDO. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares, whose magnitude and frequency are determined by the loop length and magnetic field strength. The simulation results are then compared and matched against the measured intensity from AIA, XRT, and MaGIXS. Our model results indicate the observed emissions from the XBP under study could be well matched by a distribution of nanoflares with average delay times 1500 s to 3000 s, which suggest that the heating is dominated by high-frequency events. Further, we demonstrate the high sensitivity of MaGIXS and XRT to diagnose the heating frequency using this method, while AIA passbands are found to be the least sensitive.

coronal heating↗

NASA NTRS2024

Variability and Distribution of Nighttime Equatorial to Mid Latitude Ionospheric Irregularities and Vertical Plasma Drift Observed by FORMOSAT-5 Advanced Ionospheric Probe In-Situ Measurements from 2017 – 2020

Irregularities in ionospheric plasma distribution can result in severe scintillation and disruption to the radio frequencies utilized for satellite communications and navigation. In the low and mid latitudes, these irregularities can include Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) and Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). EPBs are irregularities manifesting in low latitude nighttime ionosphere plasma density that can extend along magnetic field lines with zonal scales on the order of 100 km or less, while TIDs are propagating wave disturbances. High frequency in-situ measurements of ionospheric plasma aboard spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are a direct measurement of irregularities in plasma density and are therefore valuable for resolving EPB and TID occurrences, variability, and relation to other ionospheric parameters that are believed to play a driving role in the formation of such irregularities. In this study, we utilize observations taken over a three-year period between 2017 and 2020 by the Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) carried aboard the FORMOSAT-5 satellite to examine the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of equatorial to mid latitude ionospheric irregularities and vertical ion drift during this time. AIP provides in-situ measurements of ion density and vertical ion drift in the equatorial to mid latitude ionosphere at approximately 720 km altitude with local times between 22:00 – 23:00 local time. Our global scale results resolve distinct and inter-annually recurrent seasonal patterns in the distribution of nighttime ionospheric irregularities and vertical plasma drift during this time. Elevated occurrences of ion density irregularities are resolved along the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) latitudes, while notable occurrences with variability consistent with EPBs also observed along the low and equatorial magnetic latitudes. Zonal variability of equatorial irregularities consistent with the signatures of nonmigrating atmospheric tides are observed. It is also notable that the occurrences and geographic distribution of ion density irregularities showed a considerable level of interannual variability, especially at mid latitudes over the South Atlantic and Southern African sectors, which showed much higher levels of irregularities in 2017–––2018, compared to 2019 and 2020. In comparison, the spatial and interannual variation of the co-located vertical ion drifts were much more consistent during the years examined, indicating that the driver for the observed interannual variability in ion density irregularities cannot be attributed to the vertical ion drift at the same time and location of the observations. This highlights the need for in-situ instruments distributed across multiple satellites in different local time zones.

ionosphere↗

NASA NTRS2024

Observations of the Polarized Solar Corona During the Annular Eclipse of 14 October 2023

We present results of a dual eclipse expedition to observe the solar corona from two sites during the annular solar eclipse of 14 October 2023 using a novel coronagraph designed to be accessible for amateurs and students to build and deploy. The coronagraph (CATEcor) builds on the standardized eclipse observing equipment developed for the Citizen CATE 2024 experiment. The observing sites were selected for likelihood of clear observations, for historic relevance (near the Climax site in the Colorado Rocky Mountains), and for centrality to the annular eclipse path (atop Sandia Peak above Albuquerque, New Mexico). The novel portion of CATEcor is an external occulter assembly that slips over the front of a conventional dioptric telescope, forming a shaded-truss externally occulted coronagraph. CATEcor is specifically designed to be easily constructed in a garage or “makerspace” environment. We successfully observed some bright features in the solar corona to an altitude of approximately 2.25 R during the annular phases of the eclipse. Future improvements to the design, in progress now, will reduce both stray light and image artifacts; our objective is to develop a design that can be operated successfully by amateur astronomers at sufficient altitude even without the darkened skies of a partial or annular eclipse.

Solar instrumentation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CALIGOLA: A New Multidisciplinary Spaceborne Lidar Mission (Cloud Aerosol Lidar for Global scale Observations of the ocean-Land-Atmosphere system)

Spaceborne lidars provide unique and valuable insight into the vertical structure of clouds and aerosols over the globe as well as insight into their microphysical and optical properties. Over the past two decades, lidar observations from CALIPSO, ICESAT-2 and CATS fundamentally advanced our understanding of the roles of clouds and aerosols play in weather, climate and air quality. The measurement records further served as important references for validating and improving retrieval algorithms of cloud/aerosol properties from operational weather satellites. A more recent development is the emerging awareness on how spaceborne lidar profile observations can also enhance knowledge of Earth’s coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system. Here we report on a new and powerful spaceborne lidar mission concept known as CALIGOLA (Cloud Aerosol Lidar for Global Scale Observations of the Ocean-Land Atmosphere System). The mission is multidisciplinary and will provide new insights into atmospheric processes with advance measurement capabilities beyond CALIPSO and the recently launched EarthCARE mission. CALIGOLA will further provide the first profiling of the world’s oceans to reveal unprecedented observations on the health and productivity of marine biology (phytoplankton and zooplankton) as well as provide unique observations of surface vegetation, ice, and snow. The mission will feature an innovative three-wavelength lidar, that will simultaneously acquire elastic backscatter, Raman, and fluorescence measurements, with polarization sensitivity on the elastic channels. The instrument is further designed with greater sensitivity than CALIOP and with vertical resolution on the order of a few meters near the surface. The mission is planned for launch early next decade and is baselined to fly in a polar orbit that is compatible with the previous A-Train constellation to extend the long-term measurement record. CALIGOLA is being developed through a partnership between Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Lidar Aerosols Clouds Ocean Biology↗

NASA NTRS2024

XLSSC 122 Caught in the Act of Growing Up: Spatially Resolved SZ Observations of a z=1.98 Galaxy Cluster

Context. How protoclusters evolved from sparse galaxy overdensities to mature galaxy clusters is still not well understood. In this context, detecting and characterizing the hot intracluster medium (ICM) at high redshifts (z ∼ 2) is key to understanding how the continuous accretion from the filamentary large-scale structure and the mergers along it impact the first phases of cluster formation. Aims. We study the dynamical state and morphology of the z = 1:98 galaxy cluster XLSSC 122 with high-resolution observations (≈5″) of the ICM through the Sunyaev–Zeldovich (SZ) effect. XLSSC 122 is the highest redshift optically confirmed galaxy cluster found in an unbiased, widefield survey. Methods. Via Bayesian forward modeling, we mapped the ICM on scales from the virial radius down to the core of the cluster. To constrain such a broad range of spatial scales, we employed a new technique that jointly forward-models parametric descriptions of the pressure distribution to interferometric ACA and ALMA observations and multiband imaging data from ACT. Results. We detect the SZ effect with 11σ significance in the ALMA+ACA observations and find a flattened inner pressure profile that is consistent with a noncool core classification with a significance of ≥3σ. In contrast to the previous works, we find better agreement between the SZ effect signal and the X-ray emission as well as the cluster member distribution. Further, XLSSC 122 exhibits an excess of SZ flux in the south of the cluster where no X-ray emission is detected. By reconstructing the interferometric observations and modeling in the uv-plane, we obtain a tentative detection of an infalling group or filamentary-like structure in the southeast that is believed to boost and heat up the ICM while the density of the gas is still low. In addition to characterizing the dynamical state of the cluster, we provide an improved SZ mass estimate M500,c = 1.66−0.20+0.23 × 1014 M⊙ . Conclusions. Altogether, the observations indicate that we see XLSSC 122 in a dynamic phase of cluster formation while a large reservoir of gas is already thermalized.

large-scale structure of Universe↗

NASA NTRS2023

X-Ray and Near-Infrared Observations of the Middle-aged Pulsar B1055-52, Its Multiwavelength Spectrum, and Proper Motion

Previous observations of the middle-aged γ-ray, X-ray, and radio pulsar B1055–52 indicated some peculiarities, such as a suspected changing of the X-ray flux and spectral parameters, a large excess of the alleged thermal component of the UV spectrum over the Rayleigh–Jeans extension of the X-ray thermal spectrum, and a possible double break in the nonthermal spectral component between the optical and X-ray bands. We observed PSR B1055–52 with the XMM-Newton observatory in X-rays and the Hubble Space Telescope in near-infrared (NIR). The analysis of the XMM-Newton observations does not support the notion of long-term changes in the X-ray flux and broadband X-ray spectrum of the pulsar. Using an observing mode less affected by background noise than the previous XMM-Newton observations, we constrain the power-law (PL) spectral index as X 0.57 0.25 0.26 a = - - + (Fν ∝ ν α ) in the energy band 3–10 keV. From the NIR–optical data we obtain a PL slope αO = −0.24 ± 0.10 for the color index E(B − V ) = 0.03 mag. The slopes and fluxes of the NIR–optical and X-ray nonthermal spectra suggest that the NIR through X-ray emission can be described by the same PL and is generated by the same mechanism, unlike the pulsar’s γ-ray emission. The excess of the UV thermal component over the extension of the X-ray thermal component became smaller but did not disappear, indicating a nonuniformity of the bulk surface temperature. The NIR data also enable us to measure the proper motion accurately, with values μα = 47.5 ± 0.7 mas yr−1 and μδ = −8.7 ± 0.7 mas yr−1 .

B Posselt↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A21I-1875: Leveraging TEMPO Formaldehyde Observations to Assess Surface Air Quality

Surface ozone (O3) pollution is detrimental to human health, crop yields, and ecosystem productivity. Ground-based ozone observations are sparse and surface ozone retrievals from space are challenging. The process of producing ozone from the oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NOx) results in formaldehyde (HCHO), which can be observed from satellite and by surface-based remote sensing. From limited field campaign observations, column formaldehyde has been shown to exhibit a strong relationship with surface ozone and, therefore, could be an useful proxy for detecting unmonitored regions of elevated ozone pollution. The spatiotemporal characteristics of this relationship are explored using ground-based Pandora spectrometers and airborne remote sensing data with surface ozone monitors across the United States during recent field campaigns over major cities (TRACER-AQ and STAQS). We extend our analysis to take advantage of HCHO column observations from recently launched Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), a geostationary satellite over North America. TEMPO observations show preliminary promise in mapping regions of elevated surface ozone from space using column HCHO. We demonstrate the use of column HCHO in assessing the strength of the surface monitoring network, and in detecting the extent of regional ozone exceedances.

Prajjwal Rawat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Tropopause-Overshooting Volume from Satellite and Radar Observations During the DCOTSS 2021 and 2022 Campaigns

Tropopause-overshooting cloud locations, their volume, and the percentage of anvil cloud occupied by overshooting were quantified from state-of-the-art merged NEXRAD radar and GOES-16/17 satellite products during the 2021 and 2022 Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) study periods. A novel method for defining and tracking large individual storms or storm outbreak objects in space and time was presented, which enabled improved understanding of the complex feature-specific biases among GOES- and GridRad-derived overshooting metrics. GOES overshooting cloud top height was estimated using a stratospheric lapse rate approach informed by GOES visible and IR measurements of shadows from OTs and calibrated based on previously observed maximum GridRad overshooting distribution. Total overshooting volumes derived over CONUS are higher for GOES than GridRad for both years, especially during 2021. Over all storm outbreak objects with observed overshooting, GOES observed higher overshooting percentages while GridRad observed relatively higher overshooting magnitudes. The greater spatial coverage of GOES overshooting, especially noticeable during the mature and dissipation stages of outbreaks due to inherent limitations of infrared satellite data which make it difficult to differentiate cold, high-altitude outflow from true updraft cores, outweighed differences in magnitude to yield higher GOES volume. Individual events, however, revealed that the higher overshooting magnitudes observed by GridRad produce higher overshooting volumes at times. Four-dimensional trajectories of tropopause-overshooting air parcels were compared 5 days after overshooting occurred to depict the envelope of convectively impacted air in the stratosphere. The generally good agreement in parcel plume area initiated from GOES and GridRad overshooting detections suggests that geostationary satellite data can be used to estimate where and how often overshooting impacts stratospheric composition in regions without a ground-based weather radar network to estimate climate impacts of overshooting convection.

Kristopher Bedka↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Results from NuSTAR Co-Observation with MaGIXS-2 at Solar Maximum

NuSTAR is a solar-capable hard x-ray (HXR) astrophysical observatory sensitive to emission from hot (> MK) plasma and accelerated particles. These are both crucial for understanding energy release in the solar corona, including the processes that heat active regions during both flaring and quiescent times. As NuSTAR was optimized for much fainter astrophysical sources, it best observes the Sun when it is relatively quiet: most NuSTAR solar studies have occurred when the baseline GOES 1-8 Å flux ranges from sub-A to mid-B level. MaGIXS is a soft x-ray (SXR) rocket-borne imaging spectrometer, which is also sensitive to very hot plasma. The mutual high-temperature sensitivity of NuSTAR and MaGIXS (unique to instruments that directly focus x-ray light) makes co-observation highly desirable for understanding active region heating. Because of this, the NuSTAR Heliophysics team elected to conduct a campaign for the MaGIXS-2 flight despite a high level of solar activity (C-level baseline GOES flux) – conditions in which we would normally not observe. We discuss the potential of the resulting dataset, which is significantly impacted by NuSTAR’s limitations in the high-flux regime. We will present initial results from this co-observation campaign, discussing both the scientific potential of the NuSTAR observations as well as new insights into NuSTAR’s performance in high-rate conditions.

Jessie Duncan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reinforcement learning for adaptive maintenance policy optimization under imperfect knowledge of the system degradation model and partial observability of system states

Maintenance policy optimization usually is faced with challenges that arise from an imperfect knowledge of system degradation models and from the partial observability of system degradation states. Here, this paper proposes a reinforcement learning method to address these two challenges for a class of maintenance problems with Markov degradation processes. The reinforcement learning approach consists of a learning component and a planning component. Using sequentially collected observations, at each step of decision-making the learning component improves the knowledge of system degradation in terms of the probability distributions of the transition rates based on sequential Bayesian inference. Using the updated transition rates, at each step of decision-making the maintenance policy optimization problem is then formulated as a partially observable Markov decision problem, and the planning component computes the optimal maintenance policy that maximizes the expected cumulative reward. The proposed method is illustrated using a numerical example with repair and inspection maintenance actions. The result shows that as more observations are collected, the learning component progressively learns the true system degradation process, and the planning component adjusts the optimal maintenance policy accordingly as well, which leads to increased reward.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Net Carbon Flux in Climate Models Using Aircraft Observations

Understanding terrestrial ecosystems and their response to anthropogenic climate change requires quantification of land-atmosphere carbon exchange. However, top-down and bottom-up estimates of large-scale land-atmosphere fluxes, including the northern extratropical growing season net flux (GSNF), show significant discrepancies. We developed a data-driven metric for the GSNF using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration observations collected during the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations and Atmospheric Tomography Mission flight campaigns. This aircraft-derived metric is bias-corrected using three independent atmospheric inversion systems. We estimate the northern extratropical GSNF to be 5.7 ± 0.3 Pg C and use it to evaluate net biosphere productivity from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. While the model-to-model spread in the GSNF has decreased in the CMIP6 models relative to that of the CMIP5 models, there is still disagreement on the magnitude and timing of seasonal carbon uptake with most models underestimating the GSNF and overestimating the length of the growing season relative to the observations. We also use an emergent constraint approach to estimate annual northern extratropical gross primary productivity to be 56 ± 17 Pg C, heterotrophic respiration to be 25 ± 13 Pg C, and net primary productivity to be 28 ± 12 Pg C. The flux inferred from these aircraft observations provides an additional constraint on large-scale gross fluxes in prognostic Earth system models that may ultimately improve our ability to accurately predict carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Growth of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Observations and a Seasonal Convection-Permitting Simulation over Argentina

Abstract A 6.5-month, convection-permitting simulation is conducted over Argentina covering the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) field campaign and is compared with observations to evaluate mesoscale convective system (MCS) growth prediction. Observed and simulated MCSs are consistently identified, tracked, and separated into growth, mature, and decay stages using top-of-the-atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface rainfall. Simulated MCS number, lifetime, seasonal and diurnal cycles, and various cloud-shield characteristics including growth rate are similar to those observed. However, the simulation produces smaller rainfall areas, greater proportions of heavy rainfall, and faster system propagations. Rainfall area is significantly underestimated for long-lived MCSs but not for shorter-lived MCSs, and rain rates are always overestimated. These differences result from a combination of model and satellite retrieval biases, in which simulated MCS rain rates are shifted from light to heavy, while satellite-retrieved rainfall is too frequent relative to rain gauge estimates. However, the simulation reproduces satellite-retrieved MCS cloud-shield evolution well, supporting its usage to examine environmental controls on MCS growth. MCS initiation locations are associated with removal of convective inhibition more than maximized low-level moisture convergence or instability. Rapid growth is associated with a stronger upper-level jet (ULJ) and a deeper northwestern Argentinean low that causes a stronger northerly low-level jet (LLJ), increasing heat and moisture fluxes, low-level vertical wind shear, baroclinicity, and instability. Sustained growth corresponds to similar LLJ, baroclinicity, and instability conditions but is less sensitive to the ULJ, large-scale vertical motion, or low-level shear. Growth sustenance controls MCS maximum extent more than growth rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Preliminary Observing System Simulation Experiments for Doppler Wind Lidars Deployed on the International Space Station

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Software Systems Support Office (SSSO) is participating in a multi-agency study of the impact of assimilating Doppler wind lidar observations on numerical weather prediction. Funded by NASA's Earth Science Technology Office, SSSO has worked with Simpson Weather Associates to produce time series of synthetic lidar observations mimicking the OAWL and WISSCR lidar instruments deployed on the International Space Station. In addition, SSSO has worked to assimilate a portion of these observations those drawn from the NASA fvGCM Nature Run into the NASA GEOS-DAS global weather prediction system in a series of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). These OSSEs will complement parallel OSSEs prepared by the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and by NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. In this talk, we will describe our procedure and provide available OSSE results.

Observing System Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2022

Observation Impact and Information Retention in the Lower Troposphere of the GMAO GEOS Data Assimilation System

In this study, we have assessed the effectiveness of the use of existing observing systems in the lower troposphere in the GEOS hybrid–4DEnVar data assimilation system through a set of observing system experiments. The results show that microwave radiances have a large impact in the Southern Hemisphere and Tropical ocean, but the large influence is mostly observed above 925 hPa and dissipates relatively quickly with longer forecast lead times. Conventional data information holds better in the forecast ranging from the surface to 100 hPa, depending on the field evaluated, in the Northern Hemisphere and lowest model levels in the Tropics. Infrared radiances collectively have much less impact in the lower troposphere. Removing surface observations has small but persistent impact on specific humidity in the upper atmosphere, but small or negligible impact on planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and temperature. The model responses to the incremental analysis update (IAU) forcing are also analyzed. In the IAU assimilation window, the physics responds strongly to the IAU forcing in the lower troposphere, and the changes of physics tendency in the lower troposphere and hydrodynamics tendency in the mid- and upper troposphere are viewed as beneficial to the reduction of state error covariance. In the subsequent forecast, the model tendencies continue to deviate further from the original free forecast with forecast lead times around 300–400 hPa, but physics tendency has showed signs of returning to its original free forecast mechanisms at 1-day forecast in the lower troposphere.

GEOS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: improved mitigation of spatially varying observational systematics with masking

As photometric surveys reach unprecedented statistical precision, systematic uncertainties increasingly dominate large-scale structure probes relying on galaxy number density. Defining the final survey footprint is critical, as it excludes regions affected by artefacts or suboptimal observing conditions. For galaxy clustering, spatially varying observational systematics, such as seeing, are a leading source of bias. Template maps of contaminants are used to derive spatially dependent corrections, but extreme values may fall outside the applicability range of mitigation methods, compromising correction reliability. The complexity and accuracy of systematics modelling depend on footprint conservativeness, with aggressive masking enabling simpler, robust mitigation. We present a unified approach to define the DES Year 6 joint footprint, integrating observational systematics templates and artefact indicators that degrade mitigation performance. This removes extreme values from an initial seed footprint, leading to the final joint footprint. By evaluating the DES Year 6 lens sample MagLim++ plus plus on this footprint, we enhance the Iterative Systematics Decontamination (ISD) method, detecting non-linear systematic contamination and improving correction accuracy. While the mask's impact on clustering is less significant than systematics decontamination, it remains non-negligible, comparable to statistical uncertainties in certain w(theta) scales and redshift bins. Supporting coherent analyses of galaxy clustering and cosmic shear, the final footprint spans 4031.04 deg2, setting the basis for DES Year 6 1x2pt, 2x2pt, and 3x2pt analyses. This work highlights how targeted masking strategies optimise the balance between statistical power and systematic control in Stage-III and -IV surveys.

Rodríguez-Monroy, M. [Madrid, IFT; IJCLab, Orsay]↗