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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning of parameterized equations with applications to uncertainty quantification

We propose a learning algorithm for discovering unknown parameterized dynamical systems by using observational data of the state variables. Our method is built upon and extends the recent work of discovering unknown dynamical systems, in particular those using deep neural network (DNN). We propose a DNN structure, largely based upon the residual network (ResNet), to not only learn the unknown form of the governing equation but also take into account the random effect embedded in the system, which is generated by the random parameters. Once the DNN model is successfully constructed, it is able to produce system prediction over longer term and for arbitrary parameter values. For uncertainty quantification, it allows us to conduct uncertainty analysis by evaluating solution statistics over the parameter space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative analysis of model-free and model-based HVAC control for residential demand response

In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of model-free reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) approaches for intelligent control of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC). Deep-Q-network (DQN) is used as a candidate for model-free RL algorithm. The two control strategies were developed for residential demand-response (DR) HVAC system. We considered MPC as our golden standard to compare DQN's performance. The question we tried to answer through this work was, What % of MPC's performance can be achieved by model-free RL approach for intelligent HVAC control?. Based on our test result, RL achieved an average of ≈ 62% daily cost saving of MPC. Considering the pure optimization and model-based nature of MPC methods, the RL showed very promising performance. We believe that the interpretations derived from this comparative analysis provide useful insights to choose from various DR approaches and further enhance the performance of the RL-based methods for building energy managements.

Kurte, Kuldeep↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of the ARTIC Version 3 and Version 4 SARS-CoV-2 Primers and Their Impact on the Detection of the G142D Amino Acid Substitution in the Spike Protein

The ARTIC Network provides a common resource of PCR primer sequences and recommendations for amplifying SARS-CoV-2 genomes. The initial tiling strategy was developed with the reference genome Wuhan-01, and subsequent iterations have addressed areas of low amplification and sequence drop out. Recently, a new version (V4) was released, based on new variant genome sequences, in response to the realization that some V3 primers were located in regions with key mutations. Herein, we compare the performance of the ARTIC V3 and V4 primer sets with a matched set of 663 SARS-CoV-2 clinical samples sequenced with an Illumina NovaSeq 6000 instrument. We observe general improvements in sequencing depth and quality, and improved resolution of the SNP causing the D950N variation in the spike protein. Importantly, we also find nearly universal presence of spike protein substitution G142D in Delta-lineage samples. Due to the prior release and widespread use of the ARTIC V3 primers during the initial surge of the Delta variant, it is likely that the G142D amino acid substitution is substantially underrepresented among early Delta variant genomes deposited in public repositories. In addition to the improved performance of the ARTIC V4 primer set, this study also illustrates the importance of the primer scheme in downstream analyses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variational encoder geostatistical analysis (VEGAS) with an application to large scale riverine bathymetry

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and complex logistics of direct bathymetry surveys, i.e, depth imaging, have encouraged the use of indirect measurements such as surface flow velocities. However, estimating high-resolution bathymetry from indirect measurements is an inverse problem that can be computationally challenging. Here, we propose a reduced-order model (ROM) based approach that utilizes a variational autoencoder (VAE), a type of deep neural network with a narrow layer in the middle, to compress bathymetry and flow velocity information and accelerate bathymetry inverse problems from flow velocity measurements. In our application, the shallow-water equations (SWE) with appropriate boundary conditions (BCs), e.g., the discharge and/or the free surface elevation, constitute the forward problem, to predict flow velocity. Then, ROMs of the SWEs are constructed on a nonlinear manifold of low dimensionality through a variational encoder and the bathymetry inversion problem is derived on the low-dimensional latent space in a Hierarchical Bayesian setting. Further, the reformulation allows variational inference with a small number (e.g., $\mathscr{O}$ (100) of ROM runs and efficient uncertainty quantification. We have tested our inversion approach on a one-mile reach of the Savannah River, GA, USA. Once the neural network is trained (offline stage), the proposed technique can perform the inversion operation orders of magnitude faster than traditional inversion methods that are commonly based on linear projections, such as principal component analysis (PCA), or the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). Furthermore, tests show that the algorithm can estimate the bathymetry with good accuracy even with sparse flow velocity measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Entropy Analysis of FPGA Interconnect and Switch Matrices for Physical Unclonable Functions

Random variations in microelectronic circuit structures represent the source of entropy for physical unclonable functions (PUFs). In this paper, we investigate delay variations that occur through the routing network and switch matrices of a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). The delay variations are isolated from other components of the programmable logic, e.g., look-up tables (LUTs), flip-flops (FFs), etc., using a feature of Xilinx FPGAs called dynamic partial reconfiguration (DPR). A set of partial designs is created to fix the placement of a time-to-digital converter (TDC) and supporting infrastructure to enable the path delays through the target interconnect and switch matrices to be extracted by subtracting out common-mode delay components. Delay variations are analyzed in the different levels of routing resources available within FPGAs, i.e., local routing and across-chip routing. Data are collected from a set of Xilinx Zynq 7010 devices, and a statistical analysis of within-die variations in delay through a set of the randomly-generated and hand-crafted interconnects is presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics.

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. These new methods will become increasingly important in the coming years as the volume of survey data continues to increase, and as the degeneracy between predictions of different physical models grows. There are several perspectives on the divergences between the values of cosmological parameters, such as the model-independent probes in the late Universe and model-dependent measurements in the early Universe, which we cover at length. The White Paper closes with a number of recommendations for the community to focus on for the upcoming decade of observational cosmology, statistical data analysis, and fundamental physics developments.

Dienes, Keith [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing traffic safety analysis with digital twin technology: integrating vehicle dynamics and environmental factors into microscopic traffic simulation

Traffic safety is a critical concern in transportation engineering and urban planning. Traditional traffic safety analysis requires trained observers to collect data in the field, which is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and sometimes inaccurate. In recent years, microscopic traffic simulation, which simulates individual vehicles’ movements within a transportation network, have been utilized to study traffic safety. However, microscopic traffic simulation only focuses on traffic-related factors, such as traffic volume, traffic signals, and lane configurations, neglecting vehicle dynamics and environment-related factors like weather and lighting conditions, which can significantly impact traffic safety. In light of this, this paper explores the application of digital twin technology in traffic safety analysis, integrating vehicle simulators, which consider vehicle dynamics and environmental factors, and microscopic traffic simulators, which simulate the operations of traffic flow, for enhanced safety evaluations. Various scenarios, including different weather conditions and visibility levels, are simulated using a digital twin of a road segment in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The simulations employ Surrogate Safety Measures (SSMs) like Time to Collision (TTC) and Deceleration Rate to Avoid a Crash (DRAC) to assess safety under varying conditions. The results demonstrate that traffic digital twin can identify potential safety issues that traditional microscopic simulation cannot, providing insights for improving traffic control strategies and transportation infrastructure to enhance traffic safety.

Civil engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extracting the gamma-ray source-count distribution below the Fermi-LAT detection limit with deep learning

We reconstruct the extra-galactic gamma-ray source-count distribution, or dN/dS, of resolved and unresolved sources by adopting machine learning techniques. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network on synthetic 2-dimensional sky-maps, which are built by varying parameters of underlying source-counts models and incorporate the Fermi-LAT instrumental response functions. The trained neural network is then applied to the Fermi-LAT data, from which we estimate the source count distribution down to flux levels a factor of 50 below the Fermi-LAT threshold. We perform our analysis using 14 years of data collected in the (1,10) GeV energy range. The results we obtain show a source count distribution which, in the resolved regime, is in excellent agreement with the one derived from cataloged sources, and then extends as dN/dS ~ S -2 in the unresolved regime, down to fluxes of 5 · 10 -12 cm -2 s -1 . The neural network architecture and the devised methodology have the flexibility to enable future analyses to study the energy dependence of the source-count distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Y-12 Groundwater Protection Program Groundwater and Surface Water Sampling and Analysis Plan (CY 2021)

This plan provides a description of the groundwater and surface water quality monitoring activities planned for calendar year (CY) 2021 at the U.S. Department of Energy Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) that will be managed by the Y-12 Groundwater Protection Program (GWPP). Groundwater and surface water monitoring is performed by the GWPP. Groundwater and surface water monitoring will be performed in three hydrogeologic regimes at Y-12: the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (Bear Creek Regime), the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (East Fork Regime), and the Chestnut Ridge Hydrogeologic Regime (Chestnut Ridge Regime). The Bear Creek and East Fork regimes are located in Bear Creek Valley and the Chestnut Ridge Regime is located south of Y-12. Additional surface water monitoring will be performed north of Pine Ridge along the boundary of the Oak Ridge Reservation. The following sections of this report provide details regarding the CY 2021 groundwater and surface water monitoring activities. Section 2 describes the monitoring locations in each regime and the processes used to select the sampling locations. A description of the field measurements and laboratory analytes is provided in Section 3. Sample collection methods and procedures are described in Section 4, and Section 5 lists the documents cited for more detailed operational and technical information. The narrative sections of the report reference several appendices. Figures (maps and diagrams) and tables (excluding a data summary table presented in Section 4) are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. Groundwater Monitoring Schedules (when issued throughout CY 2021) will be inserted in Appendix C, and addenda to this plan (if issued) will be inserted in Appendix D. Laboratory requirements (bottle lists, holding times, etc.) are provided in Appendix E, and an approved Waste Management Plan is provided in Appendix F. Modifications to the CY 2021 monitoring program may be necessary during implementation. Changes in programmatic requirements may alter the analytes specified for selected monitoring wells or may add or remove wells from the planned monitoring network. Each modification to the monitoring program will be approved by the Y-12 GWPP manager and documented as an addendum to this sampling and analysis plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Rail Decarbonization Alternatives: Framework and Application

The Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework is a comprehensive industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies including biofuels, e-fuels, battery-electric, and hydrogen locomotives. By classifying fuel types into two categories based on deployment requirements, the associated optimal charging/fueling facility location and sizing problem are solved with a five-step framework. Life-cycle analysis (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) are used to estimate carbon reduction, capital investments, cost of carbon reduction, and operational impacts, enabling sensitivity analysis with operational and technological parameters. Here, the framework is illustrated on lower-carbon drop-in fuels as well as battery-electric technology deployments for the US Eastern and Western Class I railroad networks. Drop-in fuel deployments are modeled as admixtures with diesel in existing locomotives, while battery-electric deployments are shown for varying technology penetration levels and locomotive ranges. When mixed in a 50% ratio with diesel, results show biodiesel’s capacity to reduce emissions at 36% with a cost of $\$$ 0.13 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced, while e-fuels offer a potential reduction of 50% of emissions at a cost of $\$$ 0.22 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced. Battery-electric results for 50% deployment over all ton-miles highlight the value of future innovations in battery energy densities as scenarios assuming 800-mi range locomotives show an estimated emissions reduction of 46% with a cost of $\$$ 0.06 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced, compared with 16% emissions reduction at a cost of $\$$ 0.11 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced for 400-mi range locomotives. The NUFRIEND framework provides a systematic method for comparing different alternative energy technologies and identifying potential challenges and benefits in their future deployments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

DETECTING FIRE WITH MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED VISUAL MONITORING FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ENVIRONMENTS

Nuclear power plants are experiencing significant cost challenges to remain competitive with other energy-generation utilities. Unlike other industries, the cost of operation and maintenance activities is mostly attributed to workforce costs. To mitigate this, nuclear power plant stakeholders are increasingly interested in the development and deployment of machine learning methods to potentially automate or augment manually intensive tasks to reduce costs, especially for monitoring activities. One monitoring function that is visually demanding and that can occur frequently to meet the requirements of a fire protection program is visually monitoring an area for fire occurrence. Currently, fire watch activities consist of a worker physically stationed at a given location with the sole responsibility of observing a given area to ensure a fire is detected and mitigated promptly. This effort focused on the development and evaluation of a suitable deep convolutional neural network to classify individual video frames at a sub-second frequency for the occurrence of “fire” and “no fire” in varying industrial environments similar to nuclear power plants. It is believed that a trained neural network model could be integrated with existing facility video surveillance camera feeds to generate alerts when fire inferences occur in individual frames captured at sub-second temporal resolutions. Extensive effort was dedicated to identifying and curating suitable imagery training data representing varying environments and scene settings with and without flame features to maximize generalization in nuclear power plant environments. The data collection effort resulted in the aggregation of a large, labeled image library exceeding 12,000 images to support model training for diverse industrial environments. A deep neural network model incorporating parallel multi-scale capabilities was developed and trained to support accurate image-based detection of flame incidents of varying sizes and spectral feature properties within heterogeneous scenes. Analysis results show that the trained model can achieve high inference accuracy despite heterogeneous scene environments and components. Testing accuracy exceeded 95.0 percent with very low false positive and false negative inferences.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supplementary Data for "Evaluation of the Economic Implications of Varied Pressure Drawdown Strategies Generated Using a Real-time, Rapid Predictive, Multi-fidelity Model for Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells" by Bello, K., Vikara, D., Sheriff, A., Viswanathan, H., Carr, T., Sweeney, M., O'Malley, D., Marquis, M., Vactor, R.T., and Cunha, L.

The Bello et al. study evaluates the impact of contrasting pressure drawdown on gas productivity and the resulting economics of a well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. This research applies a techno-economic analysis approach to help identify potential ways pressure management strategies can be used to improve cumulative recovery of hydraulically fractured horizontal wells while maintaining project profitability. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios of the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory Laboratory's MIP-3H well were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning (PIML) workflow and 2) via traditional reservoir simulation in Computer Modeling Group’s (CMG) GEM Compositional & Unconventional Simulator. Cash flow and other economic metrics of interest were compiled on the production outlook using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM).The sheets within this Microsoft ExcelTM workbook provide the economic metric outputs for the baseline condition and the one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis of UShWEM's input parameters for each of the production scenarios evaluated.

Fracture Network Model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Degrees of rate control and AutoDiff-driven direct sensitivity analysis in heterogeneous catalysis

Despite the wide application and benefits of the degree of rate control (DRC) analysis, several details remain argued, particularly about the conservation of DRCs at transient (TR) and steady-state (SS) conditions, especially for complex reaction networks. This work argues that previous proofs about the conservation properties of DRCs have been incomplete, and we provide new mathematical proofs at TR and SS conditions. In addition, we use both analytical (automatic differentiation) and numerical (finite difference) approaches to compute DRCs for the case study of ethane hydrogenolysis (EH) over Pt(111). This work confirms that at both TR and SS conditions, the sum of all DRCs, i.e., sum of the degrees of kinetic (DKRC) and thermodynamic rate control (DTRC), is conserved at zero. At SS conditions, the sum of DKRC is conserved at 1 while the sum of DTRC is conserved at −1. In corroboration of previous works, we show that the DTRC for any adsorbate at SS is equal to the product of the species coverage and a constant. In contrast, at TR conditions, the individual sums of both DTRC and DKRC are not conserved and can be any real number, with potential implications for the novel field of dynamic catalysis. Finally, we show that the conventional finite difference (FD) approach, only useful at SS, is prone to inaccuracy and very sensitive to the value of the differential change applied. The optimal differential value also varies significantly with system and rate definition. Consequently, we describe and illustrate in this work the application of the automatic differentiation (AD) approach for the more accurate determination of DRCs at both TR and SS conditions.

Automatic differentiation↗
DOE OSTI2023

KamNet: An integrated spatiotemporal deep neural network for rare event searches in KamLAND-Zen

Rare event searches allow us to search for new physics at energy scales inaccessible with other means by leveraging specialized large-mass detectors. Machine learning provides a new tool to maximize the information provided by these detectors. The information is sparse, which forces these algorithms to start from the lowest level data and exploit all symmetries in the detector to produce results. In this work we present KamNet, which harnesses breakthroughs in geometric deep learning and spatiotemporal data analysis to maximize the physics reach of KamLAND-Zen, a kiloton scale spherical liquid scintillator detector searching for 0⁢νβ⁢β. Using a simplified background model for KamLAND, we show that KamNet outperforms a conventional convolutional neural network (CNN) on benchmarking Monte Carlo simulations with an increasing level of robustness. Using simulated data, we then demonstrate KamNet's ability to increase KamLAND-Zen's sensitivity to 0ν⁢ββ and 2⁢ν⁢β⁢β decay to excited states. A key component of this work is the addition of an attention mechanism to elucidate the underlying physics KamNet is using for the background rejection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development and Implementation of a New AI-Based Tool to Support Fast Reactor Software Model Generation and Validation

This report summarizes FY26 work to develop Maggie, an artificial intelligence-based assistant designed to support software model generation and validation activities for fast reactor analysis codes. The project established a modular, code-agnostic software architecture that separates reusable agent capabilities from code-specific knowledge and tools, with initial implementation focused on the FRP-supported fast reactor safety analysis code SAS4A/SASSYS1 (SAS). A curated SAS-specific knowledge base was assembled from the code manual, training materials, historical analysis reports, and representative input files, and was integrated through retrieval-augmented generation to ground Maggie’s responses in authoritative sources. Maggie was deployed on the internal Argonne network, where it demonstrated practical user-facing capability as a chatbot for answering natural language questions about SAS and retrieving relevant technical information. Demonstration cases also showed that Maggie can generate useful snippets of SAS input for selected modeling tasks, while highlighting current limitations in reliability and consistency for more complex input generation tasks. Overall, the FY26 effort established the technical foundation for an AI-assisted capability intended to improve the efficiency, consistency, and accessibility of fast reactor software model development at Argonne and, with further improvements, to support eventual use by the broader fast reactor community, including industry users of FRP-supported analysis tools.

Thomas, Rachel [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evolution of Intent and Social Influence Networks and Their Significance in Detecting COVID-19 Disinformation Actors on Social Media

Online disinformation actors are those individuals or bots who disseminate false or misleading information over social media, with the intent to sway public opinion in the information domain towards harmful social outcomes. Quantification of the degree to which users post or respond intentionally versus under social influence, remains a challenge, as individuals or organizations operating the profile are foreshadowed by their online persona. However, social influence has been shown to be measurable in the paradigm of information theory. In this paper, we introduce an information theoretic measure to quantify social media user intent, and then investigate the corroboration of intent with evolution of the social network and detection of disinformation actors related to COVID-19 discussions on Twitter. Our measurement of user intent utilizes an existing time series analysis technique for estimation of social influence using transfer entropy among the considered users. We have analyzed 4.7 million tweets originating from several countries of interest, during a 5 month period when the arrival of the first dose of COVID vaccinations were announced. Our key findings include evidence that: (i) a significant correspondence between intent and social influence; (ii) ranking over users by intent and social influence is unstable over time with evidence of shifts in the hierarchical structure; and (iii) both user intent and social influence are important when distinguishing disinformation actors from non-disinformation actors.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗