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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Accurate and Timely Forecasts of Geologic Carbon Storage using Machine Learning Methods

Carbon capture and storage is one strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One approach to storing the captured CO2 is to inject it into deep saline aquifers. However, dynamics of the injected CO2 plume is uncertain and the potential for leakage back to the atmosphere must be assessed. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of CO2 storage via real-time measurements integration becomes very crucial. This study proposes a learning-based, inverse-free prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast CO2 movement and distribution with uncertainty quantification based on limited simulation and observation data. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO2 storage site operators with an effective tool for real-time decision making.

Lu, Dan↗

Application of redundancy in the Saturn 5 guidance and control system

The Saturn launch vehicle's guidance and control system is so complex that the reliability of a simplex system is not adequate to fulfill mission requirements. Thus, to achieve the desired reliability, redundancy encompassing a wide range of types and levels was employed. At one extreme, the lowest level, basic components (resistors, capacitors, relays, etc.) are employed in series, parallel, or quadruplex arrangements to insure continued system operation in the presence of possible failure conditions. At the other extreme, the highest level, complete subsystem duplication is provided so that a backup subsystem can be employed in case the primary system malfunctions. In between these two extremes, many other redundancy schemes and techniques are employed at various levels. Basic redundancy concepts are covered to gain insight into the advantages obtained with various techniques. Points and methods of application of these techniques are included. The theoretical gain in reliability resulting from redundancy is assessed and compared to a simplex system. Problems and limitations encountered in the practical application of redundancy are discussed as well as techniques verifying proper operation of the redundant channels. As background for the redundancy application discussion, a basic description of the guidance and control system is included.

Moore, F. B.↗

A Comparison of Risk Sensitive Path Planning Methods for Aircraft Emergency Landing

Determining the best site to land a damaged aircraft presents some interesting challenges for standard path planning techniques. There are multiple possible locations to consider, the space is 3-dimensional with dynamics, the criteria for a good path is determined by overall risk rather than distance or time, and optimization really matters, since an improved path corresponds to greater expected survival rate. We have investigated a number of different path planning methods for solving this problem, including cell decomposition, visibility graphs, probabilistic road maps (PRMs), and local search techniques. In their pure form, none of these techniques have proven to be entirely satisfactory - some are too slow or unpredictable, some produce highly non-optimal paths or do not find certain types of paths, and some do not cope well with the dynamic constraints when controllability is limited. In the end, we are converging towards a hybrid technique that involves seeding a roadmap with a layered visibility graph, using PRM to extend that roadmap, and using local search to further optimize the resulting paths. We describe the techniques we have investigated, report on our experiments with these techniques, and discuss when and why various techniques were unsatisfactory.

Meuleau, Nicolas↗

Explosively driven hypervelocity launcher: Second-stage augmentation techniques

The results are described of a continuing study aimed at developing a two-stage explosively driven hypervelocity launcher capable of achieving projectile velocities between 15 and 20 km/sec. The testing and evaluation of a new cylindrical impact technique for collapsing the barrel of two-stage launcher are reported. Previous two-stage launchers have been limited in ultimate performance by incomplete barrel collapse behind the projectile. The cylindrical impact technique explosively collapses a steel tube concentric with and surrounding the barrel of the launcher. The impact of the tube on the barrel produces extremely high stresses which cause the barrel to collapse. The collapse rate can be adjusted by appropriate variation of the explosive charge and tubing parameters. Launcher experiments demonstrated that the technique did achieve complete barrel collapse and form a second-stage piston. However, jetting occurred in the barrel collapse process and was responsible for severe projectile damage.

Baum, D. W.↗

Comparing bandwidth requirements for digital baseband signals.

This paper describes the relative bandwidth requirements of the common digital baseband signaling techniques used for data transmission. Bandwidth considerations include the percentage of total power in a properly encoded PN sequence passed at bandwidths of 0.5, 1, 2 and 3 times the reciprocal of the bit interval. The signals considered in this study are limited to the binary class. The study compares such signaling techniques as delay modulation, bipolar, biternary, duobinary, pair selected ternary and time polarity control in addition to the conventional NRZ, RZ and BI-phi schemes.

Houts, R. C.↗

Rain Drop Size Distributions Estimated from NOAA Snow-Level Radar Data

Using NOAA’s S-band High-Power Snow-Level Radar (HPSLR), a technique for estimating the rain drop size distribution (DSD) above the radar is presented. This technique assumes the DSD can be described by a four parameter, generalized gamma distribution (GGD). Using the radar’s measured average Doppler velocity spectrum and a value (assumed, measured, or estimated) of the vertical air motion w, an estimate of the GGD is obtained. Four different methods can be used to obtain w. One method that estimates a mean mass-weighted raindrop diameter D m from the measured reflectivity Z produces realistic DSDs compared to prior literature examples. These estimated DSDs provide evidence that the radar can retrieve the smaller drop sizes constituting the “drizzle” mode part of the DSD. Here, this estimation technique was applied to 19 h of observations from Hankins, North Carolina. Results support the concept that DSDs can be modeled using GGDs with a limited range of parameters. Further work is needed to validate the described technique for estimating DSDs in more varied precipitation types and to verify the vertical air motion estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Enabled Sensor Fusion for In-Situ Defect Detection in Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) is among the metal 3D printing technologies most broadly adopted by the manufacturing industry. The current industry qualification paradigm for critical-application L-PBF parts relies heavily on expensive non-destructive inspection techniques such as X-Ray Computed Tomography (XCT), which significantly limits the use-cases of L-PBF. In situ monitoring of the process promises a less expensive alternative to ex situ testing, but existing sensor technologies and data analysis techniques struggle to detect sub-surface flaws (e.g., porosity and cracking) on production-scale L-PBF printers. RTX Technologies Research Center (RTRC) has licensed ORNL’s Peregrine software package – a printer- and camera-agnostic data analytics tool designed specifically for detecting process anomalies using in situ data collected during powder bed printing. The goal of this project was to feed temporally rich, multi-modal sensor data, including visible light, integrated near infrared (NIR), and spatially mapped co-axial melt pool thermal emission data into Peregrine to enable detection of subsurface flaws. XCT data was used as ground truth training data to allow Peregrine’s deep learning algorithms to recognize anomalies in these complex data streams in both test artifacts and industrially relevant geometries. Completion of this program has seen the successful implementation of multi-modal, multi-layer sensor data footprints for training of machine learning models in Peregrine. Flaws detected in XCT data have been successfully detected directly from this in situ data footprint, and initial analyses of the in situ probability-of-detection has been conducted, showing performance levels commensurate with traditional non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods. The in situ monitoring methodology was then applied to an industrially relevant component that was using post-build NDE, highlighting the utility of the proposed method for hard-to-inspect AM components. As a direct result of this program, two journal manuscripts [1], [2] have been published in Additive Manufacturing, with additional manuscripts planned following program completion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The quantum limit for gravitational-wave detectors and methods of circumventing it

The Heisenberg uncertainty principle prevents the monitoring of the complex amplitude of a mechanical oscillator more accurately than a certain limit value. This 'quantum limit' is a serious obstacle to the achievement of a 10 to the -21st gravitational-wave detection sensitivity. This paper examines the principles of the back-action evasion technique and finds that this technique may be able to overcome the problem of the quantum limit. Back-action evasion does not solve, however, other problems of detection, such as weak coupling, large amplifier noise, and large Nyquist noise.

Thorne, K. S.↗

Multiscale Characterization of Photovoltaic Modules—Case Studies of Contact and Interconnect Degradation

The current popularity of photovoltaic (PV) systems is due in large part to their exceptional reliability and significantly lower cost than other energy sources. Studying cell and module degradation is key to promote further development in the state of the art. Fielded or accelerated aged modules exhibit different failure modes, of which metallization degradation (contacts and interconnections) is prevalent. In this work, we discuss how multiscale characterization methods can be applied to a variety of module technologies that have been field exposed and have undergone accelerated age testing. These methods include performing characterization on the module level, cell level, and finally the materials level. The observed performance losses from the module- and cell-level characterization can be correlated with materials properties to find out the root cause of degradation. We recommend an initial nondestructive characterization suite, including module- and cell-level current-voltage ( I--V ), Suns-V OC , photoluminescence and electroluminescence imaging, quantum efficiency, ultraviolet fluorescence imaging, and thermal infrared imaging. Samples are then extracted from particularly degraded regions of the module and prepared for materials characterization techniques, such as top-down and cross-sectional scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, secondary ion mass spectrometry, Raman spectroscopy, and transmission electron microscopy, allowing a deeper look into the mechanism behind the metallization degradation. This article serves as an instructional review to introduce the different multiscale characterization methods and how they can be effectively applied to perform PV degradation studies. Furthermore, we also share some of our examples and discuss the strengths, limitations, and best practices for each of the characterization techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A new capability for predicting helicopter rotor and propeller noise including the effect of forward motion

The governing equation and computing technique for the prediction of helicopter rotor and propeller noise are described. The method which gives both the acoustic pressure time history and spectrum of the noise includes the thickness and the loading noise. It was adapted to computers resulting in a new capability in noise prediction by removing many of the restrictions and limitations of previous theories. The capability results from the fact that the theory is developed entirely in the time domain. The formulation and the technique used are not limited to compact sources, steady level flight or to the far-field. In addition, the inputs to the computer program are normally available or are amenable to experimental measurements. This program can be used to study rotor and propeller noise with the aim of minimizing the radiated noise to reduce annoyance to the public. Several examples demonstrating the features and capability of the computer program are presented.

Farassat, F.↗

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

Two phase pumping of cryogenic propellants

Two-phase cryogenic propellant pumping techniques developed during the past 5 years are discussed. During this period the theory of two-phase pumping of hydrogen was developed into an operational technique that can result in significant benefits to space vehicle propulsion systems. Using two-phase pumping techniques, zero LH2 tank net positive suction head (NPSH) was demonstrated on turbopump and rocket engine firings, and limited experimental results show that two-phase pumping of liquid oxygen is feasible. Design techniques were developed for improving the two-phase pumping capability of inducers.

H P Stinson↗

Atmospheric analysis for airdata calibration on research aircraft

In-flight airdata calibrations are used to determine the aerodynamic influence of an airplane on pitot-static pressure measurements of altitude and speed. Conventional flight-test calibration techniques are briefly reviewed and meteorological analysis methods for estimating calibration reference values of atmospheric conditions are described. There are cases where some conventional in-flight techniques are not entirely satisfactory for research aircraft because of added equipment requirements or flight envelope and location limitations. In these cases, atmospheric wind and pressure information can be used to complement conventional techniques. Accuracy of the atmospheric measurements and the variability of upper-air winds and pressure values are discussed. Results from several flight research aircraft show that wind reference calibration is generally less accurate than calibration accuracy standards for civil and research aircraft. Examples of pressure reference altimetry derived from meteorological analyses are also presented for a variety of flight research programs. These flight data show that the reference pressure accuracy provided by meteorological analyses is usually within civil aircraft and flight research airdata calibration accuracy standards. Meteorological analyses altimetry is particularly useful when it is not feasible to restrict the test airplane altitude, location, or maneuver envelope.

Ehernberger, L. J.↗

Global Optimization of Low-Thrust Interplanetary Trajectories Subject to Operational Constraints

Low-thrust interplanetary space missions are highly complex and there can be many locally optimal solutions. While several techniques exist to search for globally optimal solutions to low-thrust trajectory design problems, they are typically limited to unconstrained trajectories. The operational design community in turn has largely avoided using such techniques and has primarily focused on accurate constrained local optimization combined with grid searches and intuitive design processes at the expense of efficient exploration of the global design space. This work is an attempt to bridge the gap between the global optimization and operational design communities by presenting a mathematical framework for global optimization of low-thrust trajectories subject to complex constraints including the targeting of planetary landing sites, a solar range constraint to simplify the thermal design of the spacecraft, and a real-world multi-thruster electric propulsion system that must switch thrusters on and off as available power changes over the course of a mission.

Design↗

Development of a Time-Height Profile Assimilation Technique for Large-Eddy Simulation

Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling (MMC) aims to address the limited scope of traditional large-eddy simulations by driving the microscale flow with information concerning large-scale weather patterns provided by mesoscale models. We present a new offline MMC technique for horizontally homogeneous microscale flow conditions, in which internal forcing terms are computed based on mesoscale time–height profiles of mean-flow quantities. The advantage of such an approach is that it can be used to drive a microscale simulation with either mesoscale or observational data, and that it does not rely on specific terms in the mesoscale budget equations, which are typically not part of the default output of a mesoscale solver. The performance of the proposed profile assimilation technique is assessed based on the simulation of a typical diurnal cycle over the Scaled Wind Farm Technology site in west Texas. Results indicate that simple data assimilation techniques lead to unphysically high levels of shear and turbulence caused by the algorithm’s inability to cope with inaccuracies in the mesoscale time–height profiles. Modifying the algorithm to account for vertical coherence in the mesoscale source terms gives the microscale solver a greater ability to correct the provided mesoscale time–height profiles, leading to improved predictions of shear and turbulence statistics. The resulting turbulence statistics are in good agreement with meteorological tower observations and simulation results obtained with state-of-the-art coupling techniques using mesoscale budget components.

data assimilation↗

Upper limit on the intrinsic magnetic field of Venus

A data set of 18,000 low-altitude nightside vector measurements from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) magnetometer is used to establish a new upper limit on the intrinsic dipolar magnetic moment of Venus. Various techniques are used to search for coherence in the magnetic observations which might be attributable to such an intrinsic field, with negative results. A similar search is conducted for surface magnetism, that is, geographically correlated magnetic features, also with negative results. The present study represents the best limits that PVO observations can provide and is limited by the amount of low-altitude nightside data available. New upper limit to the magnetic moment is 8.4 x 10 to the 10th T/cu m or about 10 to the -5th of the terrestrial magnetic moment. This is a factor of four lower than the previous upper limit.

Phillips, J. L.↗

Lyapunov-based nonlinear control of nonautonomous systems with individual input constraints

A control algorithm that can locally stabilize a specific class of multi-input multi-output nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical systems while satisfying individual input constraints is developed. The proposed Lyapunov-based state-feedback control law inherently accounts for the actuator amplitude saturation limits without the need for computationally expensive real-time optimization techniques. In addition to the control law, a formal definition for the local “controllable region” within which the controller can asymptotically drive the system states to the origin and satisfy the input saturation limits is also presented. The nonautonomous nature of the system dynamics implies that the “controllable region” continuously evolves with time. Therefore, a sufficient condition to maintain the system states within the “controllable region” is proposed in this work to make practical implementation feasible. The effectiveness of the controller is tested for a specific control problem arising in tokamaks, which are toroidal devices that use strong magnetic fields to confine a plasma (hot ionized gas). Here, the primary emphasis of tokamak research is to regulate the plasma properties around predetermined values to achieve stable plasma confinement. Nonlinear simulations show that the proposed controller can achieve the desired plasma control objectives in a DIII-D tokamak scenario.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multimode Characterization Approach for Understanding Cell-Level PV Performance and Degradation

Cell-level degradation processes impact the economic viability and large-scale deployment prospects for both established and emerging photovoltaic (PV) technologies. This project addresses the need to develop experimental and device-modeling approaches for studying cell-level degradation processes in photovoltaic (PV) devices using a variety of characterization techniques that provide access to complementary material and device properties. Our results demonstrate that by coupling characterization results with device modeling it is possible to develop comprehensive understanding of processes leading to performance limitations and degradation. This project developed a suite of novel measurement techniques including pulsed-light-bias operando X-ray and photoelectron spectroscopy (popXPS), light-biased scanning microwave impedance microscopy (sMIM), and near-field transport imaging (TI). In addition, operando characterization methodologies and in situ stressing capabilities have been developed and applied for techniques including electron-beam-induced current (EBIC), cathodoluminescence (CL), and Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM). Device-physics models were developed and applied to simulate correlative, multi-mode measurements to extract material and device parameters that control performance degradation. These characterization and modeling techniques were applied in a multi-mode approach to probe cell-level degradation mechanisms in Cd(Se,Te) and hybrid perovskite PV devices. Together these efforts contribute to foundational PV degradation science by establishing a framework for understanding PV performance degradation at the cell level and benefit the U.S. PV industry by providing resources in the form of novel experimental capabilities, knowledge gained, and available expertise that can accelerate research and development of improved PV device materials and architectures. The project provided a comprehensive understanding of degradation in baseline Cd(Se,Te) solar cells provided by our collaborators at Colorado State University (CSU). EBIC and CL-based measurements and revealed unusual collection and recombination profiles in these devices, which underwent significant changes with during stressing. KPFM and operando XPS measurements showed that device stressing permanently alters energy-band alignments at the (Mg,Zn)O/Cd(Se,Te) interface, which in turn account for an observed loss in fill factor. Studies on hybrid perovskite devices were hampered to a significant extent by delays related to the pandemic. Nevertheless, a set of hybrid perovskite devices (supplied through an NREL-industry partnership) were stress tested and characterized with techniques including EBIC, sMIM, popXPS/popUPS and optically excited TI. Available results from these measurements informed the device modeling effort and suggest that defects and related band offsets at the C60/LiF/hybrid perovskite interface are the primary source of degradation in these devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗