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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Understanding How Space Travel Affects Blood Vessels: Arterial Remodeling and Functional Adaptations Induced by Microgravity

Ever rise quickly from the couch to get something from the kitchen and suddenly feel dizzy? With a low heart rate and relaxed muscles, the cardiovascular system does not immediately provide the resistance necessary to keep enough blood going to your head. Gravity wins, at least for a short time, before your heart and blood vessels can respond to the sudden change in position and correct the situation. Actually, the human cardiovascular system is quite well adapted to the constant gravitational force of the Earth. When standing, vessels in the legs constrict to prevent blood from collecting in the lower extremities. In the space environment, the usual head-to-foot blood pressure and tissue fluid gradients that exist during the upright posture on Earth are removed. The subsequent shift in fluids from the lower to the upper portions of the body triggers adaptations within the cardiovascular system to accommodate the new pressure and fluid gradients. In animal models that simulate microgravity, the vessels in the head become more robust while those in the lower limbs become thin and lax. Similar changes may also occur in humans during spaceflight and while these adaptations are appropriate for a microgravity environment, they can cause problems when the astronauts return to Earth or perhaps another planet. Astronauts often develop orthostatic intolerance which means they become dizzy or faint when standing upright. This dizziness can persist for a number of days making routine activities difficult. In an effort to understand the physiological details of these cardiovascular adaptations, Dr. Michael Delp at Texas A&M University, uses the rat as a model for his studies. For the experiment flown on STS-107, he will test the hypothesis that blood vessels in the rats' hindlimbs become thinner, weaker, and constrict less in response to pressure changes and to chemical signals when exposed to microgravity. In addition, he will test the hypothesis that arteries in the brain become thicker as a result of microgravity-induced fluid shifts toward the head.

Delp, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2020

Population Genomic Analyses Reveal Connectivity via Human-Mediated Transport across Populus Plantations in North America and an Undescribed Subpopulation of Sphaerulina musiva

Domestication of plant species has affected the evolutionary dynamics of plant pathogens in agriculture and forestry. A model system for studying the consequences of plant domestication on the evolution of an emergent plant disease is the fungal pathogen Sphaerulina musiva. This ascomycete causes leaf spot and stem canker disease of Populus spp. and their hybrids. A population genomics approach was used to determine the degree of population structure and evidence for selection on the North American population of S. musiva. In total, 122 samples of the fungus were genotyped identifying 120,016 single-nucleotide polymorphisms after quality filtering. In North America, S. musiva has low to moderate degrees of differentiation among locations. Three main genetic clusters were detected: southeastern United States, midwestern United States and Canada, and a new British Columbia cluster (BC2). Population genomics suggest that BC2 is a novel genetic cluster from central British Columbia, clearly differentiated from previously reported S. musiva from coastal British Columbia, and the product of a single migration event. Phenotypic measurements from greenhouse experiments indicate lower aggressiveness of BC2 on Populus trichocarpa. In summary, S. musiva has geographic structure across broad regions indicative of gene flow among clusters. The interconnectedness of the North American S. musiva populations across large geographic distances further supports the hypothesis of anthropogenic-facilitated transport of the pathogen.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Cooperative Three-Robot System for Traversing Steep Slopes

Teamed Robots for Exploration and Science in Steep Areas (TRESSA) is a system of three autonomous mobile robots that cooperate with each other to enable scientific exploration of steep terrain (slope angles up to 90 ). Originally intended for use in exploring steep slopes on Mars that are not accessible to lone wheeled robots (Mars Exploration Rovers), TRESSA and systems like TRESSA could also be used on Earth for performing rescues on steep slopes and for exploring steep slopes that are too remote or too dangerous to be explored by humans. TRESSA is modeled on safe human climbing of steep slopes, two key features of which are teamwork and safety tethers. Two of the autonomous robots, denoted Anchorbots, remain at the top of a slope; the third robot, denoted the Cliffbot, traverses the slope. The Cliffbot drives over the cliff edge supported by tethers, which are payed out from the Anchorbots (see figure). The Anchorbots autonomously control the tension in the tethers to counter the gravitational force on the Cliffbot. The tethers are payed out and reeled in as needed, keeping the body of the Cliffbot oriented approximately parallel to the local terrain surface and preventing wheel slip by controlling the speed of descent or ascent, thereby enabling the Cliffbot to drive freely up, down, or across the slope. Due to the interactive nature of the three-robot system, the robots must be very tightly coupled. To provide for this tight coupling, the TRESSA software architecture is built on a combination of (1) the multi-robot layered behavior-coordination architecture reported in "An Architecture for Controlling Multiple Robots" (NPO-30345), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 10 (October 2004), page 65, and (2) the real-time control architecture reported in "Robot Electronics Architecture" (NPO-41784), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 1 (January 2008), page 28. The combination architecture makes it possible to keep the three robots synchronized and coordinated, to use data from all three robots for decision- making at each step, and to control the physical connections among the robots. In addition, TRESSA (as in prior systems that have utilized this architecture) , incorporates a capability for deterministic response to unanticipated situations from yet another architecture reported in Control Architecture for Robotic Agent Command and Sensing (NPO-43635), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 10 (October 2008), page 40. Tether tension control is a major consideration in the design and operation of TRESSA. Tension is measured by force sensors connected to each tether at the Cliffbot. The direction of the tension (both azimuth and elevation) is also measured. The tension controller combines a controller to counter gravitational force and an optional velocity controller that anticipates the motion of the Cliffbot. The gravity controller estimates the slope angle from the inclination of the tethers. This angle and the weight of the Cliffbot determine the total tension needed to counteract the weight of the Cliffbot. The total needed tension is broken into components for each Anchorbot. The difference between this needed tension and the tension measured at the Cliffbot constitutes an error signal that is provided to the gravity controller. The velocity controller computes the tether speed needed to produce the desired motion of the Cliffbot. Another major consideration in the design and operation of TRESSA is detection of faults. Each robot in the TRESSA system monitors its own performance and the performance of its teammates in order to detect any system faults and prevent unsafe conditions. At startup, communication links are tested and if any robot is not communicating, the system refuses to execute any motion commands. Prior to motion, the Anchorbots attempt to set tensions in the tethers at optimal levels for counteracting the weight of the Cliffbot; if either Anchorbot fails to reach its optimal tension level within a specified time, it sends message to the other robots and the commanded motion is not executed. If any mechanical error (e.g., stalling of a motor) is detected, the affected robot sends a message triggering stoppage of the current motion. Lastly, messages are passed among the robots at each time step (10 Hz) to share sensor information during operations. If messages from any robot cease for more than an allowable time interval, the other robots detect the communication loss and initiate stoppage.

Stroupe, Ashley↗
DOE OSTI2026

Digitizing Today’s Buildings in the Real World: Lessons from Field Demonstrations

Digital twins, created by generating a virtual replica of a building, enable safe evaluation of operational scenarios and applications like fault detection and diagnosis and advanced controls. However, a prerequisite is the creation of a machine-readable digital representation of a building, currently hindered by fragmented information scattered across mechanical drawings, point lists, and natural language sequences. As a result, digital twin development remains labor-intensive, error-prone, and difficult to validate. To address these challenges, two efforts from ASHRAE aim to support the digitalization of buildings. ASHRAE s223 establishes a semantic model of buildings, representing system components, configuration, and data sources. ASHRAE s231 defines a vendor-neutral programming language for expressing their control logic. As the industry evaluates implementing them in their products, understanding the challenges that vendors and implementers may face is crucial. In this paper, we present findings and lessons learned from field demonstrations in five buildings that implemented control applications using ASHRAE s223 and s231. The demonstrations highlight how semantic modeling and formalized control descriptions can significantly reduce software development time, manual point mapping, and hard-coding. Beyond time efficiency, they enable reliable automation by minimizing human interpretation and providing a means for consistency across projects. We describe the processes and best practices for model creation and model usage, from translating heterogeneous building documentation into semantic representations to implementing control logic in real-world systems. Finally, we discuss the challenges that persist, including integration with legacy software environments, gaps in interoperability, and the level of expertise still required to effectively leverage semantic models.

Prakash, Anand Krishnan↗
NASA NTRS1998

Analytic Verification of Flight Software

In the realm of space exploration, the biggest obstacle to widespread application of autonomy in flight software is not technical feasibility; it is doubt about its trustworthiness as a replacement for human-in-the-loop decision-making.

model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NextSTEP Appendix A Modular ECLSS Effort Lessons Learned

NASA’s Artemis program provides the first steps for earth-independent exploration starting with crewed habitats in cislunar space and progressing toward crewed landings on the lunar surface that will prepare systems and crews for the exploration of Mars. The Next Space Technology for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) is a public-private partnership model that facilitates commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities in support of more extensive human spaceflight missions in and beyond cislunar space. NASA issued the original NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) to U.S. industry in late 2014 and issued the second BAA (NextSTEP-2) in April 2016. The first appendix under NextSTEP-2, Appendix A, focused on developing deep space habitation concepts, engineering design and development, and risk reduction efforts leading to a habitation capability in cislunar space. NASA solicited concepts to develop and refine the evolvable, modular architecture, functional allocation options, standards, and common interfaces required to enable interoperability of the aggregate system to provide long duration deep space transit habitation, specifically enhancements and testing of deep space Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS). Collins Aerospace, formerly UTC Aerospace Systems (UTAS), was awarded a Phase 1 and subsequent Phase 2 contract to “develop concepts that group ECLS systems into logical modules maximizing the use of common components and the development of unique methods and design concepts that support in-flight maintenance and repair for future exploration systems.” This paper summarizes the work accomplished under this effort, the lessons that can be applied to development of forthcoming habitation elements, and the gaps remaining to achieve a more resilient, maintainable, repairable and adaptable system capable of installation on a wide variety of habitat platforms. A primary accomplishment of this effort is the development and maturation of a modular palletization concept to enable standard rack interfaces, post-launch outfitting, and decoupling of structural supports that withstand launch environments from those needed for lower on-orbit loads in order to reduce installed mass and repurposing of panels within the habitat. In the course of the effort, Collins assessed numerous architecture trades, including the use of condensing and noncondensing heat exchangers, the ability of modular units to accommodate various habitat volumes and thermal loading, and the most appropriate order of and timing of delivery of regenerative ECLSS hardware to orbital habitats. In addition to the modularity of hardware elements, Collins developed software approaches for distributed/modular command, control, and communication systems and innovative Bayesian fault detection and isolation techniques. Finally, the effort explored advanced maintainability and supportability concepts including the definition of maintenance units (MUs) in place of the traditional Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs), increasing parts commonality to reduce the number and type of spare parts, the use of augmented reality to guide crews during maintenance and repair procedures, and how crews would prepare for and recover from long durations of habitat dormancy. Now that the NextSTEP Modular ECLSS effort has come to a close, it’s important to identify the lessons learned and where they can be leveraged to improve NASA’s broader program of ECLSS technology development and demonstration and ultimately how they can increase the performance of future surface and orbital habitats.

NextSTEP↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NextSTEP Appendix A Modular ECLSS Effort Lessons Learned

NASA’s Artemis program provides the first steps for earth-independent exploration starting with crewed habitats in cislunar space and progressing toward crewed landings on the lunar surface that will prepare systems and crews for the exploration of Mars. The Next Space Technology for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) is a public-private partnership model that facilitates commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities in support of more extensive human spaceflight missions in and beyond cislunar space. NASA issued the original NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) to U.S. industry in late 2014 and issued the second BAA (NextSTEP-2) in April 2016. The first appendix under NextSTEP-2, Appendix A, focused on developing deep space habitation concepts, engineering design and development, and risk reduction efforts leading to a habitation capability in cislunar space. NASA solicited concepts to develop and refine the evolvable, modular architecture, functional allocation options, standards, and common interfaces required to enable interoperability of the aggregate system to provide long duration deep space transit habitation, specifically enhancements and testing of deep space Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS). Collins Aerospace, formerly UTC Aerospace Systems (UTAS), was awarded a Phase 1 and subsequent Phase 2 contract to “develop concepts that group ECLS systems into logical modules maximizing the use of common components and the development of unique methods and design concepts that support in-flight maintenance and repair for future exploration systems.” This paper summarizes the work accomplished under this effort, the lessons that can be applied to development of forthcoming habitation elements, and the gaps remaining to achieve a more resilient, maintainable, repairable and adaptable system capable of installation on a wide variety of habitat platforms. A primary accomplishment of this effort is the development and maturation of a modular palletization concept to enable standard rack interfaces, post-launch outfitting, and decoupling of structural supports that withstand launch environments from those needed for lower on-orbit loads in order to reduce installed mass and repurposing of panels within the habitat. In the course of the effort, Collins assessed numerous architecture trades, including the use of condensing and noncondensing heat exchangers, the ability of modular units to accommodate various habitat volumes and thermal loading, and the most appropriate order of and timing of delivery of regenerative ECLSS hardware to orbital habitats. In addition to the modularity of hardware elements, Collins developed software approaches for distributed/modular command, control, and communication systems and innovative Bayesian fault detection and isolation techniques. Finally, the effort explored advanced maintainability and supportability concepts including the definition of maintenance units (MUs) in place of the traditional Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs), increasing parts commonality to reduce the number and type of spare parts, the use of augmented reality to guide crews during maintenance and repair procedures, and how crews would prepare for and recover from long durations of habitat dormancy. Now that the NextSTEP Modular ECLSS effort has come to a close, it’s important to identify the lessons learned and where they can be leveraged to improve NASA’s broader program of ECLSS technology development and demonstration and ultimately how they can increase the performance of future surface and orbital habitats.

NextSTEP↗
DOE OSTI2022

Widespread Wildfires Over the Western United States in 2020 Linked to Emissions Reductions During COVID-19

Widespread wildfires struck western United States in 2020, directly damaging properties and threatening human lives. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spread across the globe in 2020, which disrupted human activities and resulted in substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we investigate the effects of the emissions reductions of aerosols, precursors, and greenhouse gases during the pandemic on wildfire weather conditions in 2020 over western United States by using an earth system model together with observational data. We show that the COVID-19 emissions reductions in model experiments increased surface air temperature and decreased precipitation and relative humidity due to a weakened moisture transport, which explains 10-40% of the observed increase in the risk of wildfires over western United States in 2020. In conclusion, this study suggests that COVID-19-related abrupt emissions reductions have an unexpected influence on wildfires, highlighting a different but important role of human activities in affecting wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Virtual Reality Robotic Operation Simulations Using MEMICA Haptic System

There is an increasing realization that some tasks can be performed significantly better by humans than robots but, due to associated hazards, distance, etc., only a robot can be employed. Telemedicine is one area where remotely controlled robots can have a major impact by providing urgent care at remote sites. In recent years, remotely controlled robotics has been greatly advanced. The robotic astronaut, "Robonaut," at NASA Johnson Space Center is one such example. Unfortunately, due to the unavailability of force and tactile feedback capability the operator must determine the required action using only visual feedback from the remote site, which limits the tasks that Robonaut can perform. There is a great need for dexterous, fast, accurate teleoperated robots with the operator?s ability to "feel" the environment at the robot's field. Recently, we conceived a haptic mechanism called MEMICA (Remote MEchanical MIrroring using Controlled stiffness and Actuators) that can enable the design of high dexterity, rapid response, and large workspace system. Our team is developing novel MEMICA gloves and virtual reality models to allow the simulation of telesurgery and other applications. The MEMICA gloves are designed to have a high dexterity, rapid response, and large workspace and intuitively mirror the conditions at a virtual site where a robot is simulating the presence of the human operator. The key components of MEMICA are miniature electrically controlled stiffness (ECS) elements and Electrically Controlled Force and Stiffness (ECFS) actuators that are based on the sue of Electro-Rheological Fluids (ERF). In this paper the design of the MEMICA system and initial experimental results are presented.

NDE NDT composite materials defects inspection↗
DOE OSTI2020

SMART Mobility. Urban Science Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The Urban Science (US) Pillar focuses on maximum-mobility and minimum-energy opportunities associated with emerging transportation and transportation-related technologies specifically within the urban context. Such technologies, often referred to as automated, connected, efficient (or electrified), and shared (ACES), have the potential to greatly improve mobility and related quality of life in urban areas. Although all the SMART Mobility research pillars share some commonalities, Urban Science strives to model, analyze, and gain insights from the perspective of human settlements (the “city”) as a living organism. This is especially critical as the United States is one of the most urbanized countries, and as more and more of the global population migrates to urban areas.1 The urban mobility system consists of a complex network that reaches well beyond roads and vehicles and includes significant investments in public transit, private mobility services (such as taxis and transportation network companies, or TNCs), significant parking reserves, and curb management practices, not to mention the abundance of emerging on-demand micromobility services for the movement of people and goods such as e-bikes and scooters, which make the urban space a dynamic laboratory for mobility. Urban spaces also concentrate employment, markets, services, and attractions, which are the destinations for most trips. The concentration of human activities and ensuing density also creates the need and emphasis for space efficiency in urban environments, which is often less of a constraint in suburban or rural contexts. This mixture of transportation and mobility infrastructure and practice, combined with global urbanization trends, make urban spaces a critical focus of research for developing energy-efficient mobility systems (EEMS).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Transient Spacecraft Refueling Model with Gateway Breadboard Test Data

The ability to refuel spacecraft on-orbit is a key enabling technology for deep space human exploration. On-orbit refueling requires priming a pressurized liquid propellant from a source tank into fluid transfer lines at vacuum conditions, which could result in excessive surge pressures beyond the system’s qualified operating limits and potentially damage hardware. Another source of potentially damaging surge pressures is the water hammer transient that occurs when the isolation valves are closed to pause or end the refueling operation. Therefore, it is imperative to employ numerical models during the development of flight hardware to parametrically characterize system performance over a wide range of operating conditions to minimize the risk of exceeding pressure limits during flight. Since rapid pressure transients can be difficult to model accurately, it is important to validate those models with test data. As part of the Gateway bipropellant refueling system development, a simplified fluidic breadboard system was created using water as a simulant for fuel to support early program risk reduction of refueling operations. The objectives of breadboard testing were to gather performance data to characterize and demonstrate critical refueling operations and to validate numerical models that can be extended to predicting flight system performance. A description of the breadboard test article and the results of numerical model validation is presented. The model is shown to have very good agreement with test data.

Refueling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Catching up with the trees: empirical advancements to improve herbaceous representation in models

Ecosystems dominated by herbaceous vegetation (i.e. nonwoody species) represent c. 40% of the terrestrial land surface on Earth (White et al., 2000), facilitate large quantities of carbon sequestration (reviewed by Bai & Cotrufo, 2022), and provide much of the food production for humans (O'Mara, 2012). Many of these ecosystems are currently in danger of being lost due to global change drivers, shrub encroachment, and calls for afforestation (Bond et al., 2019). Furthermore, our predictive understanding of these systems is limited, which can be seen from high levels of uncertainty in modeled future carbon (C) storage of these systems (e.g. fig. 3 in McGuire et al., 2018).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Do Visual Explanations Foster End Users' Appropriate Trust in Machine Learning?

We investigated the effects of different visual explanations on users' trust in machine learning classification. We proposed three forms of visual explanations of a classification based on identifying relevant training instances. We conducted a user study to evaluate these visual explanations as well as a no explanation condition. We measured users' trust of a classifier, quantified the effects of these three forms of explanations, and assessed the changes in users' trust. We found that participants trust a classifier appropriately when an explanation is available. The combination of human, classification algorithm and understandable explanation makes better decisions than the classifier and human alone.This work advances the state-of-the-art closer to building trust-able machine learning models and informs the design and appropriate use of automated systems.

Yang, Fumeng↗
DOE OSTI2025

gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation

gaia is an open-source R package designed to estimate crop yield shocks in response to annual weather variations and CO 2 concentrations at the country scale for 17 major crops. This innovative tool streamlines the workflow from raw climate data processing to projections of annual shocks to crop yields at the country level, using the response surfaces from an empirical econometric model developed and documented in Waldhoff et al. (2020), which leverages historical weather, CO 2 , and crop yield data for robust empirical fitting for 17 crops. gaia uses these response surfaces with monthly temperature and precipitation projections (e.g., from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016) climate data bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled by the ISIMIP3BASD approach (Lange, 2019) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) (Warszawski et al., 2014)) to project yield shocks that can be applied to agricultural productivity changes at the country level for use in multisectoral economic models. The historical and future projections use gridded, country-and-crop specific monthly growing season precipitation and temperature data, aggregated to the national level, and weighted by cropland area derived from the global Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset (Portmann et al., 2010). These annual, country, and crop-specific yield shocks can be aggregated to different definitions of regions, crop commodities, and time periods, as needed by specific multisectoral economic models. gaia serves as a lightweight, powerful tool that can aid exploration of crop yield responses under a broad range of future climate projections, enhancing human-Earth system analysis capabilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Prospective Design Method for Nuclear Power: The Evaluation, Requirements, and Goals Outline for Nuclear (ERGON) Method

Human factors researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have worked on projects spanning control room modernization, operator support systems, visualization design, and novel system creation. These projects demonstrated the need for an explicit design method for nuclear power. Human factors teams found a high standard in the Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (NUREG-0711) and needed a design methodology which could be successful in gaining approval. Previous work has been synthesized as the Evaluation, Requirements, and Goals Outline for Nuclear (ERGON) method here. Design tasks are broken into four phases: Context and Orientation, Human Factors Review, Prototyping and Evaluation, Iteration and Improvement. ERGON is intended as a flexible and direct design method for many applications in nuclear power. ERGON has been vetted through collaborative research and development with nuclear utilities and as such, the ERGON method can assist utilities to achieve approval from a NUREG-0711 summative evaluation for HSI implementations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Rule-based mechanisms of learning for intelligent adaptive flight control

How certain aspects of human learning can be used to characterize learning in intelligent adaptive control systems is investigated. Reflexive and declarative memory and learning are described. It is shown that model-based systems-theoretic adaptive control methods exhibit attributes of reflexive learning, whereas the problem-solving capabilities of knowledge-based systems of artificial intelligence are naturally suited for implementing declarative learning. Issues related to learning in knowledge-based control systems are addressed, with particular attention given to rule-based systems. A mechanism for real-time rule-based knowledge acquisition is suggested, and utilization of this mechanism within the context of failure diagnosis for fault-tolerant flight control is demonstrated.

Handelman, David A.↗