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Highlights of NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office In Situ and Laboratory Measurements

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) maintains various returned spacecraft materials, capabilities, and facilities used for in situ and laboratory measurements that directly support orbital debris environmental models. In situ measurements include the analysis of exposed and returned hardware surfaces. These surfaces serve as passive sensors for the small-sized micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) flux below the sensitivity of ground-based radar and optical sensors. Various instruments and techniques are used to determine the size and depth of selected impact features, and – if feasible – the composition of the projectile material. Analysis of the impactor residues enables the differentiation of MM and OD for debris below 1 mm to support modeling the OD environment. In addition, projectiles identified as OD can be further differentiated in low-, medium-, and high- density impactors based on chemical analyses. In addition to in situ measurements, the ODPO has also worked in collaboration with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command (formerly the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center), the Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida on a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact test, DebriSat, conducted at the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex in 2014. The resulting data from this impact test series are being analyzed to assess the fragments’ sizes/masses, materials/densities, shapes, and other parameters of interest. The DebriSat project provides the data needed to update NASA’s breakup models and size estimation models using the simulated orbital breakup of a modern, low Earth orbit spacecraft. Ultimately, over 200,000 fragments from this impact test will be stored at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and further analyzed by the ODPO. This project will also use machine learning techniques to infer physical parameters of fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam used in the impact experiment. Applied to X-ray imagery of the foam panels, these techniques promise to minimize human-in-the-loop processes for fragment extraction and physical characterization. A brief overview of this project and data collected will be presented. Lastly, the ODPO provides various capabilities hosted at NASA JSC for optical inspections and measurements using a variety of techniques and scientific instrumentation to support both in situ and laboratory measurements. The ODPO’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) is an advanced facility for photometric and spectroscopic laboratory measurements of targets, including fragments from the DebriSat project. The OMC simulates telescopic observations by using space-like illumination conditions and source-target-sensor orientation techniques. Additionally, the OMC is uniquely equipped to acquire pseudo-bidirectional reflectance distribution data for broadband photometric measurements, thus removing aspect angle dependencies that can affect target size estimates using the optical size estimation model. Narrow-band surface material characterization using spectroscopic instrumentation gives insight into how the albedo parameter – also important in the optical size estimation model – may vary depending on the state of the material. The OMC also performs simulations of photometric measurements using optical ray-tracing software to model the OMC optical throughput. In addition to the OMC, the ODPO houses a start-of-the-art Fragment Analysis Facility that uses multiple microscopic inspection instruments to support in situ measurements and material characterization. An overview of both facilities will be highlighted in this paper.

Orbital Debris↗

Highlights of NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office In Situ and Laboratory Measurements

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) maintains various returned spacecraft materials, capabilities, and facilities used for in situ and laboratory measurements that directly support orbital debris environmental models. In situ measurements include the analysis of exposed and returned hardware surfaces. These surfaces serve as passive sensors for the small-sized micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) flux below the sensitivity of ground-based radar and optical sensors. Various instruments and techniques are used to determine the size and depth of selected impact features, and – if feasible – the composition of the projectile material. Analysis of the impactor residues enables the differentiation of MM and OD for debris below 1 mm to support modeling the OD environment. In addition, projectiles identified as OD can be further differentiated in low-, medium-, and high- density impactors based on chemical analyses. In addition to in situ measurements, the ODPO has also worked in collaboration with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command (formerly the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center), the Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida on a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact test, DebriSat, conducted at the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex in 2014. The resulting data from this impact test series are being analyzed to assess the fragments’ sizes/masses, materials/densities, shapes, and other parameters of interest. The DebriSat project provides the data needed to update NASA’s breakup models and size estimation models using the simulated orbital breakup of a modern, low Earth orbit spacecraft. Ultimately, over 200,000 fragments from this impact test will be stored at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and further analyzed by the ODPO. This project will also use machine learning techniques to infer physical parameters of fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam used in the impact experiment. Applied to X-ray imagery of the foam panels, these techniques promise to minimize human-in-the-loop processes for fragment extraction and physical characterization. A brief overview of this project and data collected will be presented. Lastly, the ODPO provides various capabilities hosted at NASA JSC for optical inspections and measurements using a variety of techniques and scientific instrumentation to support both in situ and laboratory measurements. The ODPO’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) is an advanced facility for photometric and spectroscopic laboratory measurements of targets, including fragments from the DebriSat project. The OMC simulates telescopic observations by using space-like illumination conditions and source-target-sensor orientation techniques. Additionally, the OMC is uniquely equipped to acquire pseudo-bidirectional reflectance distribution data for broadband photometric measurements, thus removing aspect angle dependencies that can affect target size estimates using the optical size estimation model. Narrow-band surface material characterization using spectroscopic instrumentation gives insight into how the albedo parameter – also important in the optical size estimation model – may vary depending on the state of the material. The OMC also performs simulations of photometric measurements using optical ray-tracing software to model the OMC optical throughput. In addition to the OMC, the ODPO houses a start-of-the-art Fragment Analysis Facility that uses multiple microscopic inspection instruments to support in situ measurements and material characterization. An overview of both facilities will be highlighted in this paper.

Orbital Debris↗

Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs, the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

Schiferl, Luke D.↗

Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Detailed Modeling and Analysis of the CPFM Dataset

A quantitative understanding of photolysis rate coefficients (or "j-values") is essential to determining the photochemical reaction rates that define ozone loss and other crucial processes in the atmosphere. j-Values can be calculated with radiative transfer models, derived from actinic flux observations, or inferred from trace gas measurements. The principal objective of this study is to cross-validate j-values from the Composition and Photodissociative Flux Measurement (CPFM) instrument during the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region In Summer (POLARIS) and SAGE I11 Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) field campaigns with model calculations and other measurements and to use this detailed analysis to improve our ability to determine j-values. Another objective is to analyze the spectral flux from the CPFM (not just the j-values) and, using a multi-wavelength/multi-species spectral fitting technique, determine atmospheric composition.

Swartz, William H.↗

Thermal behavior spiral bevel gears

An experimental and analytical study of the thermal behavior of spiral bevel gears is presented. Experimental data were taken using thermocoupled test hardware and an infrared microscope. Many operational parameters were varied to investigate their effects on the thermal behavior. The data taken were also used to validate the boundary conditions applied to the analytical model. A finite element-based solution sequence was developed. The three-dimensional model was developed based on the manufacturing process for these gears. Contact between the meshing gears was found using tooth contact analysis to describe the location, curvatures, orientations, and surface velocities. This information was then used in a three-dimensional Hertzian contact analysis to predict contact ellipse size and maximum pressure. From these results, an estimate of the heat flux magnitude and the location on the finite element model was made. The finite element model used time-averaged boundary conditions to permit the solution to attain steady state in a computationally efficient manner.Then time- and position-varying boundary conditions were applied to the model to analyze the cyclic heating and cooling due to the gears meshing and transferring heat to the surroundings, respectively. The model was run in this mode until the temperature behavior stabilized. The transient flash temperature on the surface was therefore described. The analysis can be used to predict the overall expected thermal behavior of spiral bevel gears. The experimental and analytical results were compared for this study and also with a limited number of other studies. The experimental and analytical results attained in the current study were basically within 10% of each other for the cases compared. The experimental comparison was for bulk thermocouple locations and data taken with an infrared microscope. The results of a limited number of other studies were compared with those obtained herein and predicted the same basic behavior.

Handschuh, Robert F.↗

Ion Flux Environments for Exposed Spacecraft Surfaces in Interplanetary Space

Spacecraft surfaces in interplanetary space are exposed to solar wind ions. The bulk of the ions exhibit energies of a few kilovolts and are important only to surface interactions while a fraction of the solar wind extends to greater energies and may penetrate below the material surface. The importance of including solar wind ions in analysis of space environment effects on spacecraft is becoming more important as new spacecraft designs are considered which include systems such as sunshades, solar sail propulsion systems, and other mission critical features based on very thin materials. This paper provides a status report on development of solar wind ion environments to support engineering analysis of materials exposed to the space environment including techniques for reconstructing ion environments from solar wind plasma moments and energetic flux measurements and comparison of statistical flux environments to integrated mission fluence.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

Effect of Assimilating SMAP Soil Moisture on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes through Direct Insertion in a Land Surface Model

Soil moisture impacts the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and CH4 and plays an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. A better representation of soil moisture would improve coupled carbon–water dynamics in terrestrial ecosystem models and could potentially improve model estimates of large-scale carbon fluxes and climate feedbacks. Here, we investigate using soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission to inform simulated carbon fluxes in the global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-wsl. Results suggest that the direct insertion of SMAP reduces the bias in simulated soil moisture at in situ measurement sites by 40%, with a greater improvement at temperate sites. A wavelet analysis between the model and measurements from 26 FLUXNET sites suggests that the assimilated run modestly reduces the bias of simulated carbon fluxes for boreal and subtropical sites at 1–2-month time scales. At regional scales, SMAP soil moisture can improve the estimated responses of CO2 and CH4 fluxes to extreme events such as the 2018 European drought and the 2019 rainfall event in the Sudd (Southern Sudan) wetlands. The simulated improvements to land–surface carbon fluxes using the direct insertion of SMAP are shown across a variety of timescales, which suggests the potential of SMAP soil moisture in improving the model representation of carbon–water coupling.

SMAP↗

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Quantum magnetism of iron-based ladders: Blocks, spirals, and spin flux

Motivated by increasing experimental evidence of exotic magnetism in low-dimensional iron-based materials, we present a comprehensive theoretical analysis of magnetic states of the multiorbital Hubbard ladder in the orbital-selective Mott phase (OSMP). Here, the model we used is relevant for iron-based compounds of the AFe 2 X 3 family (where A=Cs, Rb, Ba, K are alkali metals and X=S, Se are chalcogenides). To reduce computational effort, and obtain almost exact numerical results in the ladder geometry, we utilize a low-energy description of the Hubbard model in the OSMP—the generalized Kondo-Heisenberg Hamiltonian. Our main result is the doping vs interaction magnetic phase diagram. We reproduce the experimental findings on the AFe 2 X 3 materials, especially the exotic block magnetism of BaFe 2 Se 3 (antiferromagnetically coupled 2×2 ferromagnetic islands of the ↑↑↓↓ form). As in recent studies of the chain geometry, we also unveil block magnetism beyond the 2×2 pattern (with block sizes varying as a function of the electron doping) and also an interaction-induced frustrated block-spiral state (a spiral order of rigidly rotating ferromagnetic islands). Moreover, we predict new phases beyond the one-dimensional system: a robust regime of phase separation close to half filling, incommensurate antiferromagnetism for weak interaction, and a quantum spin-flux phase of staggered plaquette spin currents at intermediate doping. Finally, exploiting the bonding/antibonding band occupations, we provide an intuitive physical picture giving insight into the structure of the phase diagram.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Central Stars of Planetary Nebulae in the SMC

In FUSE cycle 3's program C056 we studied four Central Stars of Planetary Nebulae (CSPN) in the Small Magellanic Could. All FUSE observations have been successfully completed and have been reduced and analyzed. The observation of one object (SMP SMC 5) appeared to be off-target and no useful stellar flux was gathered. For another observation (SMP SMC 1) the voltage problems resulted in the loss of data from one of the SiC detectors, but we were still able to analyze the remaining data. The analysis and the results are summarized below. The FUSE data were reduced using the latest available version of the FUSE calibration pipeline (CALFUSE v2.4). The flux of these SMC post-AGB objects is at the threshold of FUSE S sensitivity, and the targets required many orbit-long exposures, each of which typically had low (target) count-rates. The background subtraction required special care during the reduction, and was done in a similar manner to our FUSE cycle 2 BOO1 objects. The resulting calibrated data from the different channels were compared in the overlapping regions for consistency. The final combined, extracted spectra of each target was then modeled to determine the stellar and nebular parameters. The FUSE spectra, combined with archival HST spectra, have been analyzed using stellar atmospheres codes such as TLUSTY and CMFGEN to derive photospheric and wind parameters of the central stars, and with ISM models to determine the amount and temperature of the surrounding atomic and molecular hydrogen. We have combined these results with those of our cycle 4 (D034) program (CSPN of the LMC) in Herald & Bianchi 2004a (paper in preparation, will be submitted to ApJ in June 2004). Two of the three SMC objects analyzed were found to have significantly lower stellar temperatures than had been predicted using nebular photoionization models, indicating either a hotter ionizing companion or the existence of strong shocks in the nebular environment. The analysis also revealed that some objects are surrounded by significant quantities of hot (e.g., 1000- 2000 K) molecular H2, similar to what we found for some LMC and Galactic CSPN (Herald & Bianchi 2002, 2003a, b, 2004b, c, d).

Bianchi, Luciana↗

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗

Cloud Properties Derived From GOES-7 for Spring 1994 ARM Intensive Observing Period Using Version 1.0.0 of ARM Satellite Data Analysis Program

This document describes the initial formulation (Version 1.0.0) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program satellite data analysis procedures. Techniques are presented for calibrating geostationary satellite data with Sun synchronous satellite radiances and for converting narrowband radiances to top-of-the-atmosphere fluxes and albedos. A methodology is documented for combining geostationary visible and infrared radiances with surface-based temperature observations to derive cloud amount, optical depth, height, thickness, temperature, and albedo. The analysis is limited to two grids centered over the ARM Southern Great Plains central facility in north-central Oklahoma. Daytime data taken during 5 Apr. - 1 May 1994, were analyzed on the 0.3 deg and 0.5 deg latitude-longitude grids that cover areas of 0.9 deg x 0.9 deg and 10 deg x 14 deg, respectively. Conditions ranging from scattered low cumulus to thin cirrus and thick cumulonimbus occurred during the study period. Detailed comparisons with hourly surface observations indicate that the mean cloudiness is within a few percent of the surface-derived sky cover. Formats of the results are also provided. The data can be accessed through the World Wide Web computer network.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗

Study of photon emission by electron capture during solar nuclei acceleration. 3: Photon production evaluations

Lower limits of photon fluxes were evaluated from electron capture during acceleration in solar flares, because the arbitrary q sub c asterisk assumed in this work evolves very slow with velocity, probably much more slowly than the physical actual situation: in fact, more emission is expected toward the IR region. Nevertheless the authors claim to show that the factibility of sounding acceleration processes, charge evolution processes and physical parameters of the source itself, by the observational analysis of this kind of emissions. For instance, it would be interesting to search observationally, for the predicted flux and energy drift of F sub e ions interacting with the atomic 0 and F sub e of the source matter, or, even more feasible for the X-ray lines at 4.2 keV and 2.624 + 0.003 KeV from Fe and S ions in ionized Fe at T = 10 to the 7th power K respectively, the 418 + or - 2 eV and 20 + or - 4 eV lines of Fe and S in ionized Fe at 5 x 10 to the 6th power K, which are predicted from Fermi acceleration.

Perez-Peraza, J.↗

A Modeling Study of Oceanic Response to Daily and Monthly Surface Forcing

The goal of this study is to investigate the effect of high-frequency surface forcing (wind stresses and heat fluxes) on upper-ocean response. We use the reduced-gravity quasi-isopycnal ocean model by Schopf and Loughe (1995) for this study. Two experiments are performed: one with daily and the other with monthly surface forcing. The two experiments are referred to as DD and MM, respectively. The daily surface wind stress is produced from the SSM/I wind data (Atlas et al. 1991) using the drag coefficient of Large and Pond (1982). The surface latent and sensible heat fluxes are estimated using the atmospheric mixed layer model by Seager et al. (1995) with the time-varying air temperature and specific humidity from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996). The radiation is based on climatological shortwave radiation from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) [Harrison et al. 1993] and the daily GEWEX SRB data. The ocean model domain is restricted to the Pacific Ocean with realistic land boundaries. At the southern boundary the model temperature and salinity are relaxed to the Levitus (1994) climatology. The time-mean SST distribution from MM is close to the observed SST climatology while the mean SST field from DD is about 1.5 C cooler. To identify the responsible processes, we examined the mean heat budgets and the heat balance during the first year (when the difference developed) in the two experiments. The analysis reveals that this is contributed by two factors. One is the difference in latent heat flux. The other is the difference in mixing processes. To further evaluate the responsible processes, we repeated the DD experiment by reducing the based vertical diffusion from 1e-4 to 0.5e-5. The resultant SST field becomes quite closer to the observed SST field. SST variability from the two experiments is generally similar, but the equatorial SST differences between the two experiments show interannual variations. We are investigating the possible mechanisms responsible for the different responses.

Sui, Chung-Hsiung↗

New production in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean

The average depth-integrated rate of new production in the tropical Pacific Ocean was estimated from a calculation of horizontal and vertical nitrate balance over the region enclosed by the climatological 26 C isotherm. The net turbulent flux of nitrate into the region was computed in terms of the climatological net surface heat flux and the nitrate-temperature relationship at the base of the 26 C isotherm. The net advective transport of nitrate into the region was estimated using the mean nitrate distribution obtained from the analysis of historical data and previous results of a general circulation model of the tropical Pacific. The rate of new production resulting from vertical turbulent fluxes of nitrate was found to be similar in magnitude to that due to advective transport. Most (about 75%) of the advective input of nitrate was due to the horizontal transport of nutrient-rich water from the eastern equatorial region rather than from equatorial upwelling. An average rate of new production of 14.5 - 16 g C/sq m/yr was found for the warm waters of the tropical Pacific region. These values are in good agreement with previous estimates for this region and are almost five times less than is estimated for the eastern equatorial Pacific, where most of the nutrient upwelling occurs.

Pena, M. Angelica↗

Boundary Layer Instabilities Over a Cone-Cylinder-Flare Model at Mach 6

Computations are performed to investigate the boundary-layer instabilities over a sharp cone-cylinder-flare model at zero degrees angle of attack. The model geometry and the flow conditions are selected to match the experiments conducted in the Boeing/AFOSR Mach 6 Quiet Tunnel (BAM6QT) at Purdue University. The geometry consists of a nominally sharp 5-degree half-angle cone, followed by a cylindrical segment and then a 10-degree flare. An axisymmetric separation bubble is generated as a result of the laminar shock/boundary-layer interaction in the cylinder-flare region. The comparison of the laminar flow solution and the schlieren images shows a remarkable agreement between the respective locations of both the boundarylayer edge and the reattachment shock. The predicted heat flux distribution is also in agreement with the measured values downstream of the reattachment location. The analysis of convective and global instabilities is performed for flare half angles equal to 8, 10, and 12 degrees and nosetip radii equal to 0.1, 1, and 5 mm. The linear amplification of first and second Mack mode instabilities that begin to amplify in the cone region are computed with a combination of the parabolized stability equations (PSE) and the harmonic linearized Navier-Stokes equations (HLNSE). The predicted frequency spectra of the surface pressure fluctuations associated with both planar and oblique instability waves are compared with the measured spectra at the various locations of the PCB and Kulite sensors. The comparison shows that the computational analysis captures the distinct lobes within the disturbance amplification spectra measured in the experiments, but some differences in amplification characteristics are noted at low frequencies. Overall, the oblique disturbances are found to be more amplified than the planar disturbances. To our knowledge, this represents the first successful comparison between convective instability analysis and measured surface pressure fluctuations for a hypersonic configuration with a separation bubble. Finally, the global instability analysis shows that the laminar flow becomes supercritical for flare half angles larger than 8 degrees. The unstable global mode for the experimental configuration of a 10 degrees flare and a sharp nosetip cone corresponds to a stationary three-dimensional disturbance that is concentrated in the recirculation region and achieves its maximum growth rate for an azimuthal wavenumber of 5.

Boundary layer transition↗