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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Tables of Aerosol Optics (TAO) Project

The Table of Aerosol Optics (TAO) project is a community repository of optics computations (extinction, absorption, single-scatter albedo, lidar ratio, etc) that are useful for global models and remote sensing applications. TAO expands upon historical efforts (e.g., Hess et al., 1998) by building an open database that uses recent measurements and new computational techniques for non-spherical particles. The ‘open’ aspect of TAO is important, since the size distributions, hygroscopicities, refractive indices, and morphological recommendations of today will undoubtedly yield to different values in the future; the open framework of TAO allows scientists to keep adding new computations to the database as the science evolves. TAO is meant to be a community repository where specialists can put their computations for other scientists to use. So for instance, some groups are advancing new techniques that can accommodate complex fractal aggregates of black carbon, other groups are working on realistic irregular shapes for mineral dust, and different groups are updating the hygroscopicity of various aerosol types using new techniques. The TAO database gives these scientists a place to distribute their products. As TAO grows, modelers and remote sensing specialists will look to TAO as a place to find a wide variety of choices for testing. Meanwhile, global modelers can also use TAO to lobby for new tables that accommodate their needs. Eventually, TAO will provide mass extinction coefficients, mass absorption coefficients, lidar ratios, etc., at popular remote sensing and global modeling wavelengths (0.25-40 µm) for all pertinent species (sulfate, sea salt, BC, OC, BrC, dust, etc.). TAO will also accept computations for aerosol ‘type’ (e.g., biomass burning, urban, background, etc.) that may include regional and seasonal variability. Multiple tables may be created for each species or type to account for the multiple valid size distributions, hygroscopicities, complex refractive indices, and shapes that can be found in the literature.

Greg Schuster↗

NASA NTRS2024

Opinion: Aerosol Remote Sensing Over the Next Twenty Years

More than two decades ago, aerosol remote sensing underwent a revolution with the launch of the Terra and Aqua satellites. Advancement continued via additional launches carrying new passive and active sensors. Capable of retrieving parameters characterizing aerosol loading, rudimentary particle properties and in some cases aerosol layer height, the satellite view of Earth’s aerosol system came into focus.The modeling communities have made similar advances. Now the efforts have continued long enough that we can see developing trends in both remote sensing and modeling communities, allowing us to speculate about the future and how the community will approach aerosol remote sensing twenty years from now. We anticipate technology that will replace today’s standard multi-wavelength radiometers with hyperspectral and/or polarimetry all viewing in multiple angles.These will be supported by advanced active sensors with the ability to measure profiles of aerosol extinction in addition to backscatter. The result will be greater insight into aerosol particle properties. Algorithms will move from being primarily physically-based to include an increasing degree of Machine Learning methods, but physically-based techniques will not go extinct. However, the practice of applying algorithms to a single sensor will be in decline. Retrieval algorithms will encompass multiple sensors and all available ground measurements into a unifying framework, and these inverted products will be ingested directly into assimilation systems, becoming “cyborgs”: half observations, half model. In twenty years we will see a true democratization in space with nations large and small, private organizations and commercial entities of all sizes launching space sensors. With this increasing amount of data and aerosol products available, there will be a lot of bad data. User communities will organize to set standards and the large national space agencies will lead the effort to maintain quality by deploying and maintaining validation ground networks and focused field experiments. Through it all, interest will remain high in the global aerosol system and how that system affects climate, clouds, precipitation and dynamics, air quality, the environment and public health, transport of pathogens and fertilization of ecosystems, and how these processes are adapting to a changing climate.

aerosol remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airborne Lidar Measurements of Ozone and Aerosol Profiles Over Major US Metropolitan Areas

During field missions in 2021 and 2023, the airborne NASA Langley Research Center High Spectral Resolution Lidar 2 (HSRL 2) measured the temporal and spatial evolution of ozone and aerosol distributions impacting urban air quality over the four most populated cities in the United States. HSRL-2 measurements in 2021 were acquired over the Houston metropolitan region, including Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel, as part of the NASA Tracking Aerosol Convection Experiment – Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) mission conducted in collaboration with the Department of Energy. HSRL-2 measurements were acquired over Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York City in 2023 as part of the NASA Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science (STAQS) mission conducted in collaboration with the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) mission. HSRL 2 provided nadir vertical profiles of ozone, aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization as the aircraft flew lawnmower type patterns at 9 km for several hours over these urban areas. HSRL-2 measured profiles of aerosol extinction and aerosol optical depth (AOD) via the HSRL technique at 355 and 532 nm and profiles of aerosol backscatter and depolarization at 355, 532, and 1064 nm. Mixed Layer Heights (MLH) were derived by locating sharp vertical gradients in the profiles of aerosol backscatter. The flights were comprised of up to three repeating lawnmower patterns over each city showing the evolution of the ozone and aerosol distributions from the morning through the afternoon. The HSRL-2 measurements reveal ozone enhancements near the surface as well as in the free troposphere above the mixed layer. Some lidar measurements over Chicago and New York City show the daytime boundary layer growing into elevated layers of biomass burning aerosol. These layers complicate efforts to use column-integrated satellite measurements to infer surface air quality. As expected, mixed layer height (MLH) typically increased significantly during the day; however, during some flights, particularly over the Houston area, MLH also showed large spatial variability associated with changes in surface cover and/or small scale circulations. Often HSRL-2 measurements of AOD also showed large spatial and temporal variability throughout the day over these cities. We discuss how the ozone and aerosol profiles are averaged over different vertical and horizontal scales near the surface for use in assessments of regional air quality models and near-surface ozone retrievals from NASA’s recently launched Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring Pollution (TEMPO) satellite.

Lidar↗

NASA NTRS2024

Benchmarking GOCART-2G in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)

The Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model, which controls the sources sinks and chemistry within the Goddard Earth Observing System, recently underwent a major refactoring and update to the representation of physical processes. This paper serves to document code changes that were included in GOCART 2nd Generation (GOCART-2G) and establishes a benchmark simulation that is to be used for future development of the system. The code refactoring increases flexibility such multiple instances of an aerosol species can be run and interact with radiation and cloud microphysics, in addition to the output of multiple wavelength aerosol optical properties in support of data assimilation. From a science perspective, a new radiatively active tracer, brown carbon, was added to distinguish smoke from other sources of organic aerosol thereby improving optical properties entering the radiative calculations. A four-year benchmark simulation was evaluated using in situ and space borne measurements to develop a baseline and prioritize future development. A comparison of simulated aerosol optical depth between GOCART-2G and MODIS retrievals indicates the model captures the overall spatial pattern and seasonal cycle of aerosol optical depth but overestimates aerosol extinction over dusty regions and underestimates aerosol extinction over northern hemisphere boreal forests, requiring further tuning of emissions. This MODIS-based analysis is corroborated by comparisons to MISR and selected AERONET stations. Despite the underestimate of aerosol optical depth in biomass burning regions in GEOS, there is an overestimate in the surface mass of organic carbon in the United States, especially during the summer months.

Allison B Collow↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HSRL-2 Observations over the Houston, TX Region during TRACER-AQ

Lidar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar Measurements of Aerosols over Major Metropolitan Areas

NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidars have participated in several NASA field missions designed to study air quality over major metropolitan regions. Data from these instruments reveal the temporal and spatial variabilities of aerosol distributions over these urban areas, quantify aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization near the surface, and provide additional relevant information regarding aerosol optical thickness, mixed layer height, and aerosol type. We show that measurements of surface PM2.5 concentrations typically are more directly related to coincident near-surface measurements of aerosol extinction than coincident measurements of aerosol optical thickness.

lidar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

After 17 years, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission ceased science operations in August 2023. For the final CALIPSO data products release (Version 5), the CALIPSO project seeks to improve the accuracy of its aerosol extinction by advancing knowledge of aerosol lidar ratios (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratios; LRs) for various aerosol types. The current algorithm assigns one LR value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. The CALIPSO team aims to improve the retrieval algorithm through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies for the same aerosol types. In this study, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over oceans during daytime. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type. The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. This presentation will reveal findings that the 12-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses (Fig. 1). This indicates the influence of advected anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), the SSVFs are larger (> 95%) and the LRs are smaller (< 25 sr) (Fig. 1). A polynomial fit of the MODIS AOD constrained LRs to the corresponding GOCART SSVFs (intersect values of ~58 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is further used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we will show results of a LR validation analysis for which we compare the revised CALIPSO AODs obtained by applying the seasonal/regional constrained LRs against CALIPSO Version 4.51 Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD). While the majority of the presentation will focus on LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols, an overview of LR results will show preliminary results for other aerosol types over ocean, such as dust and elevated smoke. The technique demon-strated in this study highlights the benefits not only to the final planned CALIPSO data release in 2025, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors (e.g., such as those associated with NASA’s proposed Atmosphere Observing System).

Travis D Toth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PM 2.5 Concentrations over Major Metropolitan Regions Inferred from Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar Measurements Using Machine Learning Regression

We use measurements of near-surface aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization acquired by four NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidars (HSRLs) to develop a machine learning regression methodology to infer PM2.5 concentrations at the surface and aloft. These airborne HSRL measurements were acquired over major metropolitan regions in the United States and Asia during more than 170 flights since 2010. Hourly surface PM2.5 measurements from the EPA air quality system and similar networks in other countries acquired within 10 km and 15 minutes of these near-surface HSRL measurements are used to train models that compute PM2.5 concentrations from the HSRL measurements. We examine several regression methods and find that exponential Gaussian Process algorithms consistently give the best performance in terms of the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) errors and the highest correlations. Model performance varies significantly depending on various combinations of HSRL aerosol measurements (e.g., aerosol backscatter, extinction, depolarization, backscatter color ratios, lidar ratios, aerosol optical thickness) and retrievals (e.g., mixed layer height, aerosol type) used in the regressions. Models that use near-surface measurements of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties such as depolarization, backscatter color ratio, and lidar ratio typically give the best performance with RMS errors around 4 mg/m3 and correlation coefficients above 0.9. HSRL measurements were often acquired when the aircraft flew systematic “raster-scan” patterns for several hours over these cities. These flight patterns enabled measurements of the spatial, temporal, and vertical variabilities in the distributions of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties and allowed us to derive the corresponding variabilities in PM2.5 concentrations. We present examples of such variabilities over urban areas in the United States as well as Asia. We describe also how the distribution of surface PM2.5 varies with aerosol type and use these retrievals to examine model simulations of surface PM2.5 in these metropolitan regions. We also discuss how this methodology may be applied to measurements from satellite lidars such as CALIOP on CALIPSO and ATLID on EarthCARE.

lidar↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating the optical properties of soot using a stochastic soot model

KL extinction measurements are common in literature concerning soot producing sprays because of their nonintrusiveness. Unfortunately, these measurements often rely on bold assumptions of uniform and monodisperse spherical particles. In this work, a Spray A case is simulated using a highly detailed 3D stochastic soot model and the measured and simulated soot volume fraction are compared. Although the simulated volume fraction magnitude is approximately correct, features are much sharper than in the measured data. Optical models based on particle shape are applied to the simulated soot particles to nd the local optical thickness. The modeled optical thickness aligns with the measured volume fraction much more closely than the simulated volume fraction indicating KL extinction measurements are not simply related to soot volume fraction.

Strickland, Tyler↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative investigation of sooting dynamics in droplet combustion using an automated image analysis algorithm

This paper reports an image analysis approach using a newly-developed open-source program to extract quantitative measurements of soot volume fraction (SVF) from digital video images of burning n-heptane droplets. The automated program developed in this work can analyze images of fixed and untethered droplets to quantify sooting dynamics. The images analyzed in the program were taken from experiments carried out in the Multi-user Droplet Combustion Apparatus (MDCA) onboard the International Space Station (ISS). In these experiments, video imaging of burning droplets was obtained using backlighting by a laser diode with a wavelength of 653 nm. Here, the light was collimated before it passed through the droplet and soot-containing region, after which the light was then attenuated and projected onto the camera’s sensors. This technique facilitates the measurements of SVF based on the principles of the full field light extinction method (FFLEM). The measurements provide quantitative data that reveal the sooting dynamics of liquid fuels during droplet combustion processes. The analyses of a soot-attenuating image (ISS n-heptane, untethered droplet) at an instant during the burning show that the SVF distribution has a peak at the soot shell location. It then decreases due to soot oxidation when the location is further away from the burning droplet. Regarding temporal effects on the maximum SVF (SVF max ), results show that SVF max first increases after the burning is initiated until a peak value is reached, after which SVF max decreases. The SVF max values identified in this study for n-heptane are quantitatively consistent with previously reported values for fiber-supported droplets and are reached relatively early in the burning history. n-Heptane images are also analyzed to show the effects of initial droplet sizes on the maximum soot volume fraction. Results show that SVF max decreases with increasing initial droplet size, which is consistent with visual observations of less soot formed and dimmer flame brightness as Do increases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification and quantification of distinct active sites in Hf-Beta zeolites for transfer hydrogenation catalysis

Despite the significant progress made in characterizing different framework heteroatom sites that exist in Lewis acidic zeolites with probe molecule adsorption and spectroscopy, methods to reliably quantify site counts remain indefinite and have been primarily limited to Sn and Ti Lewis acid sites. Here, methods to quantify framework Lewis acidic Hf 4+ sites in zeolite Beta (Hf-Beta) with two Lewis base titrants (pyridine, deuterated acetonitrile) were developed using infrared (IR) spectroscopy. Lewis acid site counts for Hf-Beta zeolites were validated by measuring integrated molar extinction coefficients (IMECs; ε, cm μmol –1 ) on Sn-Beta zeolites using identical Lewis base titrants to benchmark site counts with established literature procedures to quantify Lewis acid sites in Beta zeolites from IR spectra. Highlighting the importance of benchmarking active site counts against well-established experimental protocols, IMECs of CD 3 CN bound to open (ε(Sn; 2316 cm –1 ): 1.80 ± 0.25) and closed (ε(Sn; 2308 cm –1 ): 3.76 ± 0.33) Sn sites were ~1.8x larger than those previously reported while total Lewis acid site counts agreed with those measured by pyridine (ε(Sn; 1451 cm –1 ): 1.58 ± 0.16) on six different Sn-Beta zeolites. IMECs measured for IR peaks reflecting pyridine bound to Lewis acidic Hf sites (ε(Hf; 1448 cm –1 ): 1.54 ± 0.21) and CD 3 CN bound to open (ε(Hf; 2313 cm –1 ): 2.40 ± 0.22) and closed (ε(Hf; 2307 cm –1 ): 3.55 ± 0.41) Hf sites, gave similar counts for the total number of Lewis acidic sites across six Hf-Beta zeolites (Si/Hf = 100–413). Consistent with previous reports with Sn-Beta catalysts where open Sn sites are responsible for catalytic turnover, apparent first and zero-order MPVO rate constants (0.01–1 M cyclohexanone in 2-butanol; per total Hf, 373 K) correlated with the total number of open Hf sites, per total Hf, but not with the total number of closed Hf sites or total Lewis acid site counts. Measured initial MPVO rates (0.1 M cyclohexanone in 2-butanol, per open Hf, 373 K) were ~25x higher on hydrophobic Hf-Beta-F than on hydrophilic Hf-Beta-OH zeolites. Overall, the apparent first-order MPVO rate constants (2-butanol solvent, per open Hf, 373 K) were ~6x higher on Hf-Beta-F than on Hf-Beta-OH zeolites. The characterization methods reported here enable normalization of MPVO turnover rates on Sn- and Hf-Beta zeolites by their number of open sites. Finally, this enables performing quantitative rate comparisons across Lewis acid zeolites of varying active site identity, solvation, and pore topology used in liquid-phase catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of dilution and pressure on combustion characteristics within externally heated micro-tubes

Here this study investigates the impact of pressure and dilution on combustion behavior of of C 2H6/air/N2 mixtures within an externally heated micro-tube using both experimental and analytical techniques. Experiments are conducted for pressures up to 10 bar at multiple dilution levels and document three flame regimes, i.e. weak flames, FREI and normal flames. Characteristic temperatures for flame stabilization, as well as and ignition and extinction are obtained by applying a novel thin filament pyrometry method (TFP), which uses a thin silicon carbide (SiC) filament that enables temperature measurements for both reacting and non-reacting cases. Results show a decrease of characteristic temperatures with increasing pressure, which can be which can be partially compensated by a decrease of O2 content. Further, regime transitions occur at lower velocity as the pressure increases, whereas weak flame positions are insensitive to dilution at a given pressure. Predictions from the analytical model compare favorably with experimental results. The most prominent finding is that as dilution increases, the transition from weak flame to FREI becomes less abrupt and is completely lost for high dilution levels (i.e. low O2 content). Both experimental and analytical results indicate that the unstable FREI combustion regime does not exist at high dilution levels, i.e. weak flame and normal flame regimes are no longer clearly separated. As FREI are interpreted as a cyclic transition from an ignition zone to a propagating flame, results for highly diluted conditions are interpreted as a combustion regime where classical flame propagation ceases to exist.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental and numerical investigation of ester droplet combustion: Application to butyl acetate

This paper presents an experimental and numerical study of the combustion of isolated n–butyl acetate droplets in the standard atmosphere. Numerical simulations are reported using a model that incorporates unsteady gas and liquid transport, variable properties, and radiation. Three skeletal mechanisms of n-butyl acetate, derived from a large detailed mechanism comprised of 819 species and 52,698 reactions, were used in the numerical simulations to evaluate the influence of the kinetic mechanism on burning. The reduced mechanisms comprised 212 species and 5413 reactions, 157 species and 3089 reactions, and 105 species and 1035 reactions. The numerical model did not include soot formation, though qualitatively mild sooting was noted only for droplets larger than 0.7 mm. The numerical predictions were in good agreement with experimental measurements of droplet and flame diameters. Flame extinction was numerically predicted which was attributed to a decrease of the characteristic diffusion time relative to the chemical time as droplet burned. Effects of initial droplet diameter on the evolution of maximum gas temperature (T max ) and peak mole fractions of CO 2 and CO are also examined numerically.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The need for multicomponent dust attenuation in modeling nebular emission: Constraints from SDSS-IV MaNGA

A fundamental assumption adopted in nearly every extragalactic study that analyzes optical emission lines is that the attenuation of different emission lines can be described by a single attenuation curve, scaled by a single reddening parameter, usually E(B - V). Here we show this assumption fails in many cases with important implications for derived results. We developed a new method to measure the differential nebular attenuation among three kinds of transitions: the Balmer lines of hydrogen; high-ionization transitions (> 13.6 eV) including [Ne III], [O III], and [S III]; and low-ionization transitions (≲13.6 eV) including [O II], [N II], and [S II]. This method bins the observed data in a multidimensional space spanned by attenuation-insensitive line ratios. Within each small bin, the variations in nebular parameters such as the metallicity and ionization parameter are negligible compared to the variation in the nebular attenuation. This allowed us to measure the nebular attenuation using both forbidden lines and Balmer lines. We applied this method to a sample of 2.4 million star-forming (SF) spaxels from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We found that the attenuation of high ionization lines and Balmer lines can be well described by a single Fitzpatrick (1999, PASP, 111, 63) extinction curve with R V = 3.1. However, no single attenuation curve can simultaneously account for these transitions and the derived attenuation of low-ionization lines. This strongly suggests that different lines have different effective attenuations, likely because spectroscopy at hundreds of parsecs to kiloparsecs of resolution mixes multiple physical regions that exhibit different intrinsic line ratios and different levels of attenuation. As a result, the assumption that different lines follow the same attenuation curve breaks down. Using a single attenuation curve determined by Balmer lines to correct attenuation-sensitive forbidden line ratios could bias the nebular parameters derived by 0.06–0.25 dex at A V = 1, depending on the details of the dust attenuation model. Observations of a statistically large sample of H II regions with high spatial resolutions and large spectral coverage are vital for improved modeling and deriving accurate corrections for this effect.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The intrinsic reddening of the Magellanic Clouds as traced by background galaxies – III. The Large Magellanic Cloud

ABSTRACT We present a map of the total intrinsic reddening across ≃ 90 deg2 of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) derived using optical (ugriz) and near-infrared (IR; YJKs) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of background galaxies. The reddening map is created from a sample of 222 752 early-type galaxies based on the lephareχ2 minimization SED-fitting routine. We find excellent agreement between the regions of enhanced intrinsic reddening across the central (4 × 4 deg2) region of the LMC and the morphology of the low-level pervasive dust emission as traced by far-IR emission. In addition, we are able to distinguish smaller, isolated enhancements that are coincident with known star-forming regions and the clustering of young stars observed in morphology maps. The level of reddening associated with the molecular ridge south of 30 Doradus is, however, smaller than in the literature reddening maps. The reduced number of galaxies detected in this region, due to high extinction and crowding, may bias our results towards lower reddening values. Our map is consistent with maps derived from red clump stars and from the analysis of the star formation history across the LMC. This study represents one of the first large-scale categorizations of extragalactic sources behind the LMC and as such we provide the lephare outputs for our full sample of ∼ 2.5 million sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A galaxy-driven model of type Ia supernova luminosity variations

ABSTRACT Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are used as standardizable candles to measure cosmological distances, but differences remain in their corrected luminosities which display a magnitude step as a function of host galaxy properties such as stellar mass and rest-frame U−R colour. Identifying the cause of these steps is key to cosmological analyses and provides insight into SN physics. Here we investigate the effects of SN progenitor ages on their light-curve properties using a galaxy-based forward model that we compare to the Dark Energy Survey 5-yr SN Ia sample. We trace SN Ia progenitors through time and draw their light-curve width parameters from a bimodal distribution according to their age. We find that an intrinsic luminosity difference between SNe of different ages cannot explain the observed trend between step size and SN colour. The data split by stellar mass are better reproduced by following recent work implementing a step in total-to-selective dust extinction ratio (RV) between low- and high-mass hosts, although an additional intrinsic luminosity step is still required to explain the data split by host galaxy U−R. Modelling the RV step as a function of galaxy age provides a better match overall. Additional age versus luminosity steps marginally improve the match to the data, although most of the step is absorbed by the width versus luminosity coefficient α. Furthermore, we find no evidence that α varies with SN age.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tipping points emerge from weak mutualism in metacommunities

The coexistence of obligate mutualists is often precariously close to tipping points where small environmental changes can drive catastrophic shifts in species composition. For example, microbial ecosystems can collapse by the decline of a strain that provides an essential resource on which other strains cross-feed. Here, we show that tipping points, ecosystem collapse, bistability and hysteresis arise even with very weak (non-obligate) mutualism provided the population is spatially structured. Based on numeric solutions of a metacommunity model and mean-field analyses, we demonstrate that weak mutualism lowers the minimal dispersal rate necessary to avoid stochastic extinction, while species need to overcome a mean threshold density to survive in this low dispersal rate regime. Our results allow us to make numerous predictions for mutualistic metacommunities regarding tipping points, hysteresis effects, and recovery from external perturbations, and let us draw general conclusions for ecosystems even with random, not necessarily mutualistic, interactions and systems with density-dependent dispersal rather than direct mutualistic interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structural Aspects of Neutron Survival Probabilities

The neutron survival probability (and related quantities including probabilities of extinction and initiation) is a central element of the broader stochastic theory of neutron populations and finds application in fields including reactor start-up, analysis of reactor power bursts and criticality accidents, and safeguards. In a full neutron transport formulation, the equation governing the single-neutron survival probability is a backward or adjoint-like integro-partial differential equation with the added complexity of being highly nonlinear. Analogous formulations of this equation exist in the context of many approximate theories of neutron transport, with the point kinetics formulation having received significant theoretical attention since the 1940s. This work continues this tradition by providing a novel analysis of the single-neutron survival probability equation using the tools of boundary layer theory. The analysis reveals that the “fully dynamic” solution of the single-neutron survival probability equation—and some key probability distributions derived from it—may be cast as a singular perturbation around the underlying quasi-static single-neutron probability of initiation. In this perturbation solution, the expansion parameter is the ratio of the neutron generation time to a macroscopic time scale characterizing the overall system evolution; this interpretation illuminates some of the fundamental structural aspects of neutron survival phenomena.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗