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NASA NTRS2004

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS2004

A-Posteriori Error Estimation for Hyperbolic Conservation Laws with Constraint

This lecture considers a-posteriori error estimates for the numerical solution of conservation laws with time invariant constraints such as those arising in magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and gravitational physics. Using standard duality arguments, a-posteriori error estimates for the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method are then presented for MHD with solenoidal constraint. From these estimates, a procedure for adaptive discretization is outlined. A taxonomy of Green's functions for the linearized MHD operator is given which characterizes the domain of dependence for pointwise errors. The extension to other constrained systems such as the Einstein equations of gravitational physics are then considered. Finally, future directions and open problems are discussed.

Barth, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2003

Short-term adaptation of the VOR: non-retinal-slip error signals and saccade substitution

We studied short-term (30 min) adaptation of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in five normal humans using a "position error" stimulus without retinal image motion. Both before and after adaptation a velocity gain (peak slow-phase eye velocity/peak head velocity) and a position gain (total eye movement during chair rotation/amplitude of chair motion) were measured in darkness using search coils. The vestibular stimulus was a brief ( approximately 700 ms), 15 degrees chair rotation in darkness (peak velocity 43 degrees /s). To elicit adaptation, a straight-ahead fixation target disappeared during chair movement and when the chair stopped the target reappeared at a new location in front of the subject for gain-decrease (x0) adaptation, or 10 degrees opposite to chair motion for gain-increase (x1.67) adaptation. This position-error stimulus was effective at inducing VOR adaptation, though for gain-increase adaptation the primary strategy was to substitute augmenting saccades during rotation while for gain-decrease adaptation both corrective saccades and a decrease in slow-phase velocity occurred. Finally, the presence of the position-error signal alone, at the end of head rotation, without any attempt to fix upon it, was not sufficient to induce adaptation. Adaptation did occur, however, if the subject did make a saccade to the target after head rotation, or even if the subject paid attention to the new location of the target without actually looking at it.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Improved Conflict Detection for Reducing Operational Errors in Air Traffic Control

An operational error is an incident in which an air traffic controller allows the separation between two aircraft to fall below the minimum separation standard. The rates of such errors in the US have increased significantly over the past few years. This paper proposes new detection methods that can help correct this trend by improving on the performance of Conflict Alert, the existing software in the Host Computer System that is intended to detect and warn controllers of imminent conflicts. In addition to the usual trajectory based on the flight plan, a "dead-reckoning" trajectory (current velocity projection) is also generated for each aircraft and checked for conflicts. Filters for reducing common types of false alerts were implemented. The new detection methods were tested in three different ways. First, a simple flightpath command language was developed t o generate precisely controlled encounters for the purpose of testing the detection software. Second, written reports and tracking data were obtained for actual operational errors that occurred in the field, and these were "replayed" to test the new detection algorithms. Finally, the detection methods were used to shadow live traffic, and performance was analysed, particularly with regard to the false-alert rate. The results indicate that the new detection methods can provide timely warnings of imminent conflicts more consistently than Conflict Alert.

Paielli, Russell A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Error Estimation and h-Adaptivity for Optimal Finite Element Analysis

The objective of adaptive meshing and automatic error control in finite element analysis is to eliminate the need for the application engineer from re-meshing and re-running design simulations to verify numerical accuracy. The user should only need to enter the component geometry and a coarse finite element mesh. The software will then autonomously and adaptively refine this mesh where needed, reducing the error in the fields to a user prescribed value. The ideal end result of the simulation is a measurable quantity (e.g. scattered field, input impedance), calculated to a prescribed error, in less time and less machine memory than if the user applied typical uniform mesh refinement by hand. It would also allow for the simulation of larger objects since an optimal mesh is created.

Cwik, Tom↗
NASA NTRS1995

Impact of CMOS Scaling on Single-Event Hard Errors in Space Systems

Applications of highly scaled devices in space applications are shown to be limited by hard errors from cosmic rays. Hard errors were first observed in 0.8 (micro)m DRAMs. For feature sizes below 0.5 (micro)m, scaling theory predicts that low power devices will have much lower hard error rates than devices optimized for high speed.

CMOS Scaling↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Origin of Systematic Errors in the GCM Simulation of ITCZ Precipitation over Oceans

This study provides explanations for some of the experimental findings of Chao (2000) and Chao and Chen (2001) concerning the mechanisms responsible for the ITCZ in an aqua-planet model. These explanations are then applied to explain the origin of some of the systematic errors in the GCM simulation of ITCZ precipitatin over oceans. The ITCZ systematic errors are highly sensitive to model physics and by extension model horizontal resolution. The findings in this study along with those of Chao (2000) and Chao and Chen (2001, 2004) contribute to building a theoretical foundation for ITCZ study. A few possible methods of alleviating the systematic errors in the GCM simulaiton of ITCZ are discussed. This study uses a recent version of the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) GCM.

Chao, Winston C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Derivation and Application of a Global Albedo yielding an Optical Brightness To Physical Size Transformation Free of Systematic Errors

Orbital object data acquired via optical telescopes can play a crucial role in accurately defining the space environment. Radar systems probe the characteristics of small debris by measuring the reflected electromagnetic energy from an object of the same order of size as the wavelength of the radiation. This signal is affected by electrical conductivity of the bulk of the debris object, as well as its shape and orientation. Optical measurements use reflected solar radiation with wavelengths much smaller than the size of the objects. Just as with radar, the shape and orientation of an object are important, but we only need to consider the surface electrical properties of the debris material (i.e., the surface albedo), not the bulk electromagnetic properties. As a result, these two methods are complementary in that they measure somewhat independent physical properties to estimate the same thing, debris size. Short arc optical observations such as are typical of NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) give enough information to estimate an Assumed Circular Orbit (ACO) and an associated range. This information, combined with the apparent magnitude, can be used to estimate an "absolute" brightness (scaled to a fixed range and phase angle). This absolute magnitude is what is used to estimate debris size. However, the shape and surface albedo effects make the size estimates subject to systematic and random errors, such that it is impossible to ascertain the size of an individual object with any certainty. However, as has been shown with radar debris measurements, that does not preclude the ability to estimate the size distribution of a number of objects statistically. After systematic errors have been eliminated (range errors, phase function assumptions, photometry) there remains a random geometric albedo distribution that relates object size to absolute magnitude. Measurements by the LMT of a subset of tracked debris objects with sizes estimated from their radar cross sections indicate that the random variations in the albedo follow a log-normal distribution quite well. In addition, this distribution appears to be independent of object size over a considerable range in size. Note that this relation appears to hold for debris only, where the shapes and other properties are not primarily the result of human manufacture, but of random processes. With this information in hand, it now becomes possible to estimate the actual size distribution we are sampling from. We have identified two characteristics of the space debris population that make this process tractable and by extension have developed a methodology for performing the transformation.

Mulrooney, Dr. Mark K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Pressing the Approach: A NASA Study of 19 Recent Accidents Yields a New Perspective on Pilot Error

This article begins with a review of two sample airplane accidents that were caused by pilot error. The analysis of these and 17 other accidents suggested that almost all experienced pilot operating in the same environment in which the accident crews were operating and knowing only what the accident crews knew at each moment of the flight, would be vulnerable to making a similar decision and similar errors. Whether a particular crew in a given situation makes errors depends on somewhat random interaction of factors. Two themes that seem to be prevalent in these cases are: Plan Continuation Bias, and Snowballing Workload.

Berman, Benjamin A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dual-mass vibratory rate gyroscope with suppressed translational acceleration response and quadrature-error correction capability

A microfabricated vibratory rate gyroscope to measure rotation includes two proof-masses mounted in a suspension system anchored to a substrate. The suspension has two principal modes of compliance, one of which is driven into oscillation. The driven oscillation combined with rotation of the substrate about an axis perpendicular to the substrate results in Coriolis acceleration along the other mode of compliance, the sense-mode. The sense-mode is designed to respond to Coriolis accelerationwhile suppressing the response to translational acceleration. This is accomplished using one or more rigid levers connecting the two proof-masses. The lever allows the proof-masses to move in opposite directions in response to Coriolis acceleration. The invention includes a means for canceling errors, termed quadrature error, due to imperfections in implementation of the sensor. Quadrature-error cancellation utilizes electrostatic forces to cancel out undesired sense-axis motion in phase with drive-mode position.

Clark, William A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Data entry and error embedding system

A data entry and error embedding system in which, first, a document is bitmapped and recorded in a first memory. Then, it is displayed, and portions of it to be replicated by data entry are underlayed by a window, into which window replicated data is entered in location and size such that it is juxtaposed just below that which is replicated, enhancing the accuracy of replication. Second, with this format in place, selected portions of the replicated data are altered by the insertion of character or word substitutions, thus the embedding of errors. Finally, a proofreader would endeavor to correct the error embedded data and a record of his or her changes recorded. In this manner, the skill level of the proofreader and accuracy of the data are computed.

Woo, Jr., John↗
NASA NTRS2006

Estimating Random Errors Due to Shot Noise in Backscatter Lidar Observations

In this paper, we discuss the estimation of random errors due to shot noise in backscatter lidar observations that use either photomultiplier tube (PMT) or avalanche photodiode (APD) detectors. The statistical characteristics of photodetection are reviewed, and photon count distributions of solar background signals and laser backscatter signals are examined using airborne lidar observations at 532 nm using a photon-counting mode APD. Both distributions appear to be Poisson, indicating that the arrival at the photodetector of photons for these signals is a Poisson stochastic process. For Poisson-distributed signals, a proportional, one-to-one relationship is known to exist between the mean of a distribution and its variance. Although the multiplied photocurrent no longer follows a strict Poisson distribution in analog-mode APD and PMT detectors, the proportionality still exists between the mean and the variance of the multiplied photocurrent. We make use of this relationship by introducing the noise scale factor (NSF), which quantifies the constant of proportionality that exists between the root-mean-square of the random noise in a measurement and the square root of the mean signal. Using the NSF to estimate random errors in lidar measurements due to shot noise provides a significant advantage over the conventional error estimation techniques, in that with the NSF uncertainties can be reliably calculated from/for a single data sample. Methods for evaluating the NSF are presented. Algorithms to compute the NSF are developed for the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar and tested using data from the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). OCIS Codes:

Liu, Zhaoyan↗
NASA NTRS2008

Modeling-Error-Driven Performance-Seeking Direct Adaptive Control

This paper presents a stable discrete-time adaptive law that targets modeling errors in a direct adaptive control framework. The update law was developed in our previous work for the adaptive disturbance rejection application. The approach is based on the philosophy that without modeling errors, the original control design has been tuned to achieve the desired performance. The adaptive control should, therefore, work towards getting this performance even in the face of modeling uncertainties/errors. In this work, the baseline controller uses dynamic inversion with proportional-integral augmentation. Dynamic inversion is carried out using the assumed system model. On-line adaptation of this control law is achieved by providing a parameterized augmentation signal to the dynamic inversion block. The parameters of this augmentation signal are updated to achieve the nominal desired error dynamics. Contrary to the typical Lyapunov-based adaptive approaches that guarantee only stability, the current approach investigates conditions for stability as well as performance. A high-fidelity F-15 model is used to illustrate the overall approach.

Kulkarni, Nilesh V.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A GPS-Based Pitot-Static Calibration Method Using Global Output-Error Optimization

Pressure-based airspeed and altitude measurements for aircraft typically require calibration of the installed system to account for pressure sensing errors such as those due to local flow field effects. In some cases, calibration is used to meet requirements such as those specified in Federal Aviation Regulation Part 25. Several methods are used for in-flight pitot-static calibration including tower fly-by, pacer aircraft, and trailing cone methods. In the 1990 s, the introduction of satellite-based positioning systems to the civilian market enabled new inflight calibration methods based on accurate ground speed measurements provided by Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Use of GPS for airspeed calibration has many advantages such as accuracy, ease of portability (e.g. hand-held) and the flexibility of operating in airspace without the limitations of test range boundaries or ground telemetry support. The current research was motivated by the need for a rapid and statistically accurate method for in-flight calibration of pitot-static systems for remotely piloted, dynamically-scaled research aircraft. Current calibration methods were deemed not practical for this application because of confined test range size and limited flight time available for each sortie. A method was developed that uses high data rate measurements of static and total pressure, and GPSbased ground speed measurements to compute the pressure errors over a range of airspeed. The novel application of this approach is the use of system identification methods that rapidly compute optimal pressure error models with defined confidence intervals in nearreal time. This method has been demonstrated in flight tests and has shown 2- bounds of approximately 0.2 kts with an order of magnitude reduction in test time over other methods. As part of this experiment, a unique database of wind measurements was acquired concurrently with the flight experiments, for the purpose of experimental validation of the optimization method. This paper describes the GPS-based pitot-static calibration method developed for the AirSTAR research test-bed operated as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls (IRAC) project in the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). A description of the method will be provided and results from recent flight tests will be shown to illustrate the performance and advantages of this approach. Discussion of maneuver requirements and data reduction will be included as well as potential applications.

Foster, John V.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Error Control with Perfectly Matched Layer or Damping Layer Treatments for Computational Aeroacoustics with Jet Flows

In this paper we show by means of numerical experiments that the error introduced in a numerical domain because of a Perfectly Matched Layer or Damping Layer boundary treatment can be controlled. These experimental demonstrations are for acoustic propagation with the Linearized Euler Equations with both uniform and steady jet flows. The propagating signal is driven by a time harmonic pressure source. Combinations of Perfectly Matched and Damping Layers are used with different damping profiles. These layer and profile combinations allow the relative error introduced by a layer to be kept as small as desired, in principle. Tradeoffs between error and cost are explored.

Goodrich, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) Mission Navigation Accuracy to Major Error Sources

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission consists of four satellites flying in formation in highly elliptical orbits about the Earth, with a primary objective of studying magnetic reconnection. The baseline navigation concept is independent estimation of each spacecraft state using GPS pseudorange measurements referenced to an Ultra Stable Oscillator (USO) with accelerometer measurements included during maneuvers. MMS state estimation is performed onboard each spacecraft using the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS), which is embedded in the Navigator GPS receiver. This paper describes the sensitivity of MMS navigation performance to two major error sources: USO clock errors and thrust acceleration knowledge errors.

Olson, Corwin↗
NASA NTRS2010

Error and Uncertainty Quantification in the Numerical Simulation of Complex Fluid Flows

The failure of numerical simulation to predict physical reality is often a direct consequence of the compounding effects of numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation and physical model uncertainty resulting from inexact knowledge and/or statistical representation. In this topical lecture, we briefly review systematic theories for quantifying numerical errors and restricted forms of model uncertainty occurring in simulations of fluid flow. A goal of this lecture is to elucidate both positive and negative aspects of applying these theories to practical fluid flow problems. Finite-element and finite-volume calculations of subsonic and hypersonic fluid flow are presented to contrast the differing roles of numerical error and model uncertainty. for these problems.

Barth, Timothy J.↗