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The content, format, and storage of data bases developed for the Foreign Commodity Production Forecasting project and used to produce normal crop calendars are described. In addition, the data bases may be used for agricultural meteorology, modeling of stage sequences and planting dates, and as indicators of possible drought and famine.
Images characteristics of geographic regions other than the northeastern part of the United States are presented for interpretation. Pre- and post-eruption imagery of Mt. St. Helens volcano serves to demonstrate the advantages of thermal infrared sensing, and the potential for developing a timely, decision oriented thematic map to be used in solving drought-related problems in Upper Volta is examined to show the applicability of satellite remote sensing in all geographic areas.
Reflectance data were obtained over a drought-stressed and a well-watered wheat plot with a hand-held radiometer having bands similar to the MSS bands of the LANDSAT satellites. Data for 48 clear days were interpolated to yield reflectance values for each day of the growing season, from planting until harvest. With an atmospheric path radiance model and LANDSAT-2 calibration data, the reflectance were used to simulate LANDSAT digital counts (not quantized) for the four LANDSAT bands for each day of the growing season, through a clear (approximately 100 km meteorological range) and a turbid (approximately 10 km meteorological range) atmosphere. Several ratios and linear combinations of bands were calculated using the simulated data, then assessed for their relative ability to discriminate vegetative growth and plant stress through the two atmospheres. The results show that water stress was not detected by any of the indices until after growth was retarded, and the sensitivity of the various indices to vegetation depended on plant growth stage and atmospheric path radiance.
Stress in sunflowers was assessed in western and northwestern Minnesota. Weekly ground observations (acquired in 1980 and 1981) were analyzed in concert with large scale aerial photography and concurrent LANDSAT data. Using multidate supervised and unsupervised classification procedures, it was found that all crops grown in association with sunflowers in the study area are spectrally separable from one another. Under conditions of extreme drought, severely stressed plants were differentiable from those not severely stressed, but between-crop separation was not possible. Initial regression analyses to estimate sunflower seed yield showed a sensitivity to environmental stress during the flowering and seed development stages. One of the most important biological factors related to sunflower production in the Red River Valley area was found to be the extent and severity of insect infestations.
Practical techniques were developed and evaluated for deriving geobotanical information from LANDSAT MSS data acquired for a test site in the Sam Houston National Forest near Cleveland, Texas where gravel deposits exist in sufficient quantity that economical extraction would be feasible. A correlation was shown between a single spectral class and the presence of ironstone gravel. Field data indicates that this class relates to upland pine which was probably under stress as the result of a prolonged drought which was in progress at the time of data acquisition. It is suggested that the subsurface gravel produces a soil which has less field capacity for water retention, causing early appearance of water stress in the surface vegetation over these soils. In all areas within the QMC formation where this class occurred, gravel was located when borings were made.
The use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's advanced very high resolution radiometer satellite data for classifying land cover and monitoring of vegetation dynamics over an extremely large area is demonstrated for the continent of Africa. Data from 17 imaging periods of 21 consecutive days each were composited by a technique sensitive to the in situ green-leaf biomass to provide cloud-free imagery for the whole continent. Virtually cloud-free images were obtainable even for equatorial areas. Seasonal variation in the density and extent of green leaf vegetation corresponded to the patterns of rainfall associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone. Regional variations, such as the 1982 drought in east Africa, were also observed. Integration of the weekly satellite data with respect to time produced a remotely sensed assessment of biological activity based upon density and duration of green-leaf biomass. Two of the 21-day composited data sets were used to produce a general land cover classification. The resultant land cover distributions correspond well to those of existing maps.
Image simulation techniques were employed to establish the relationship between spatial resolution and the accuracy of soil moisture estimated by an imaging radar. A spaceborne synthetic aperture radar at an orbital altitude of 600 km, operating at 4.5 GHz with HH polarization configuration and covering a ground swath width of 143 km corresponding to an angle of incidence range extending between 7-22 degrees relative to the vertical, provided the images simulated by a 17.7 km x 19.3 km test site. The role of resolution was evaluated by simulating various sets of images with resolutions ranging from 20 m x 20 m to 1 km x 1 km. Each simulated image was subjected to a soil moisture prediction algorithm whose input is limited to the image intensity level. Results show that the 1 km x 1 km resolution provides the best prediction accuracy for most soil moisture distributions except for drought-like conditions for which the 100 m x 100 m resolution is found to be preferred. In general it was found that the soil moisture of about 90% of the pixels is predicted with an error of + or - 20% of field capacity or less.
Modeled temperature data from a one-dimensional, time-dependent, initial value, planetary boundary layer model for 16 separate model runs with varying initial values of moisture availability are applied, by the use of a regression equation, to longwave infrared GOES satellite data to infer moisture availability over a regional area in the central U.S. This was done for several days during the summers of 1978 and 1980 where a large gradient in the antecedent precipitation index (API) represented the boundary between a drought area and a region of near normal precipitation. Correlations between satellite derived moisture availability and API were found to exist. Errors from the presence of clouds, water vapor and other spatial inhomogeneities made the use of the measurement for anything except the relative degree of moisture availability dubious.
The role of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the oceans which in the general circulation of the atmosphere is to supply moisture to cumulus and stratus clouds is outlined. In extreme weather events, such as powerful storms and intense droughts, the primary role of the ABL is to supply or deny moisture to the weather system. Even for routine weather regimes, cloudiness and precipitation are key elements of any forecast. The premier problem for ABL parameterization is to formulate the physical coupling between the ABL turbulence and the clouds.
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Darwin pressure anomalies are examined for the 81-year period 1901-81. It is found that the tendency of the Darwin pressure anomaly before the monsoon season is a good indicator of the monsoon rainfall anomaly. During the 81-year period, there were only two instances (1901, 1941) when a negative tendency of winter (December, January, February) to spring (March, April, May) Darwin pressure anomaly was followed by a monsoon rainfall anomaly of less than minus one standard deviation; and only three instances (1916, 1933, 1961) when a positive tendency was followed by a rainfall anomaly of more than one standard deviation. Therefore, if the Darwin pressure anomaly during March, April and May is below normal, and if the Darwin seasonal pressure anomaly has been falling, a non-occurrence of drought over India can be predicted with a very high degree of confidence. Similarly, above normal Darwin pressure during March, April and May, and increasing seasonal pressure anomaly is a good indicator of the non-occurrence of very heavy rain over India.
Numerical modelling results are reported from a pilot study investigating the feasibility of developing a technique for daily soil moisture measurement throughout the world, based on GOES infrared data. A detailed one-dimensional boundary layer-surface-soil model was used in order to determine which physical parameters observable from GOES are most sensitive to soil moisture, and which are most effected by seasonal changes, atmospheric effects and vegetation cover. The results of the sensitivity test show that the mid-morning differential of surface temperature with respect to absorbed solar radiation is optimally sensitive to soil moisture. A case study comparing model results with GOES infrared data confirms the sensitivity of this parameter to soil moisture and also confirms the applicability of the model to predicting area-averaged surface temperature changes. Model measurements of soil moisture are expected to be most accurate for dry or marginal agricultural areas where drought is common. Sources of error, including the advection of clouds, are examined and methods of minimizing error are discussed.
Remotely sensed snow cover information is the critical data input for the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM), which was developed to simulatke discharge from mountain basins where snowmelt is an important component of runoff. Of simple structure, the model requires only input of temperature, precipitation, and snow covered area. SRM was run successfully on two widely separated basins. The simulations on the Kings River basin are significant because of the large basin area (4000 sq km) and the adequate performance in the most extreme drought year of record (1976). The performance of SRM on the Okutadami River basin was important because it was accomplished with minimum snow cover data available. Tables show: optimum and minimum conditions for model application; basin sizes and elevations where SRM was applied; and SRM strengths and weaknesses. Graphs show results of discharge simulation.
The region of South America is emphasized in the present consideration of the Southern Oscillation (SO) oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. The persistence of climate anomalies associated with El Nino-SO events is due to strong atmosphere-ocean coupling. Once initiated, the SO follows a certain sequence of events with clearly defined effects on tropical and subtropical rainfall. Excessive rainfall related to the SO in the central and eastern Pacific, Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil, are complemented by drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, West Africa, and northeast Brazil. El Nino-SO events are also associated with dramatic changes in the tropospheric flow pattern over a broad area of both hemispheres.
Data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer sensor on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational series of meteorological satellites were used to classify land cover and monitor vegetation dynamics for Africa over a 19-month period. There was a correspondence between seasonal variations in the density and extent of green leaf vegetation and the patterns of rainfall associated with the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Regional variations, such as the 1983 drought in the Sahel of western Africa, were observed. Integration of the weekly satellite data with respect to time for a 12-month period produced a remotely sensed estimate of primary production based upon the density and duration of green leaf biomass. Eight of the 21-day composited data sets covering an 11-month period were used to produce a general land-cover classification that corresponded well with those of existing maps.
The fluorescence spectra and fluorescence induction kinetics of green plants excited at 337 nm by a laser were studied. They correlate with plant type, as well as with changes in the physiology of the plant as the result of stress. The plant types studied include herbaceous dicots, monocots, hardwoods, conifers, and algae. These plant types could be identified on the basis of differences in either the number of fluorescent bands or the relative intensity of the bands. Differences in fluorescent spectra which could be related to vigor status are observed in conifers located in an area of high atmospheric deposition. Changes in the fluorescence spectra and induction kinetics are also seen in plants grown under conditions of nutrient deficiency and drought stress.
The weekly global vegetation index (GVI) derived from the NOAA AVHRR instrument has been analyzed for the 1982-1985 period over a wide range of vegetation formations of Asia. Temporal development curves of the index are presented for environments ranging from the desert of central Asia to the tropical forest of Borneo. The paper shows that, despite the coarse resolution of the GVI product, a large set of useful information on ecosystem dynamics and cropping practices can be consistently derived from time series of such data. In addition, it is shown that the impact of the 1982-1983 El Nino Southern Oscillation-related drought can be detected in the GVI data through an analysis of anomalies in the development of selected vegetation formations. The relevance of such analysis for global vegetation monitoring and change detection is then underlined.
A simple and readily-computed index for diagnostic and numerical weather prediction studies of heat waves and other persistent anomalies has been developed. The index takes into account the two important factors of intensity and persistence and it is highly correlated to the surface air temperature on a variety of time-scales. The utilization of this index for investigating the severe, summer 1980 U.S. heat wave and drought results in an instructive description of the spatial and temporal development of the phenomenon. An assessment of the skill of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) model in forecasting the initiation and breakdown of the heat wave in terms of the index is also illustrated.
Normalized difference vegetation index data obtained from polar-orbiting meteorological satellites were used to compare the growing or rainy seasons of 1984 and 1985 for the Sahelian zone of Africa. A substantial difference was found between these two years, with 1985 generally having higher normalized difference vegetation index values indicating higher levels of primary production in 1985 than in 1984. 1 km data were compared for Senegal, Mali, Niger and Sudan, and 7 km data were compared for sub-Saharan Africa. The qualitative comparison of these data suggests the use of similar data to assist in centralized monitoring of rangeland conditions, to identify areas of deficiencies in primary production and provide synoptic information in support of regional drought monitoring.