Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data predictive control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning

This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.

Sanchez-Villar, Alvaro [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗

Microstructural Coarsening Kinetics and Mechanical Property Changes in Long-Term Aged Sn–Pb–Sb Solder Joints

Tin-lead-antimony (50Sn–47Pb–3Sb wt.%) soldered assemblies were mechanically tested approximately 30 years after initial production and found to have solder joints of reduced strength. The microstructure of this solder alloy exhibits a ternary eutectic structure with Sn-rich, Pb-rich, and SnSb phases. Accelerated aging was performed to evaluate solder microstructural coarsening and associated strength of laboratory solder joints to correlate these properties to the “naturally aged” solder joints. Isothermal aging was conducted at room temperature, 55, 70, 100, and 135 °C and aging times that ranged from 0.1 to 365 days. The coarsening kinetics of the Pb-rich phase were determined through optical microscopy and image analysis methods established in previous studies on binary Sn–Pb solder. A kinetic equation was developed with time exponent n of 0.43 and activation energy of 24000 J/mol, suggesting grain boundary diffusion or other fast diffusion pathways controlling the microstructural evolution. Compression testing and Vickers microhardness showed significant strength loss within the first 20–30 days after soldering; then, the microstructure and mechanical properties changed more slowly over long periods of time. Further, by combining accelerated aging data and the microstructure-based kinetics, strength predictions were made that match well with the properties of the actual soldered assemblies naturally aged for 30 years. However, aging at the highest temperature of 135 °C produced anomalous behavior suggesting that extraneous aging mechanisms are active. Therefore, data obtained at this temperature or higher should not be used. Overall, the combined microstructural and mechanical property methods used in this study confirmed that the observed reduction in strength of ~ 30-year-old solder joints can be accounted for by the microstructural coarsening that takes place during long-term solid-state aging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nickel hydroxide–nickel carbonate competitive growth on carbonate surfaces

The thermodynamic and kinetic factors controlling the competitive heterogeneous nucleation and growth of ubiquitous metal carbonate and hydroxide phases are poorly understood. In this work, calcite (CaCO 3 ) and magnesite (MgCO 3 ) powders were reacted with NiCl 2 (0–600 μM) for 7 days at 22 °C and 5 °C. The reacted powders were analyzed with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy, and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy to characterize the Ni surface precipitates formed. Evidence from these techniques pointed to the formation of mixed Ni carbonate-Ni hydroxide amorphous surface precipitates. On calcite, XPS detected primarily Ni(OH) 2 despite the initial solutions being more supersaturated with respect to gaspéite (NiCO 3 ) than to theophrastite (Ni(OH) 2 ) by a factor of 17–18. In contrast, NiCO 3 was the dominant component detected by XPS on magnesite in the same conditions. Decreasing the temperature had the effect of increasing the proportion of NiCO 3 to the detriment of Ni(OH) 2 . The experimental observations were consistent with low lattice/cation size mismatch favoring NiCO 3 nucleation and temperature most influencing Ni(OH) 2 nucleation. Comparison to previous work on Co-reacted powders indicated the differences in lattice/cation size mismatch and/or water exchange rate impacted the composition of the surface precipitates more than the relative thermodynamic stabilities of the competing minerals. This work explored the heterogeneous growth regime of Ni carbonate and hydroxide phases on carbonate surfaces and shed light on the factors that control the competition between surface precipitates when mineral surfaces are in contact with aqueous solutions supersaturated with respect to multiple mineral phases. In conclusion, these results contribute to geochemists’ efforts toward interpreting data from geochemical systems with elevated Ni concentrations, improving Ni environmental remediation and recovery strategies, and predicting the fate and transport of Ni in geochemical systems.

Heterogeneous nucleation↗

The solubility of ErPO 4 and Er speciation in hydrothermal fluids at varying pH and salinity between 350 and 450 °C

The rare earth elements (REE) are important for the green-energy transition and can be incorporated into the REE phosphates, such as xenotime-(Y), which also hosts heavy REE (Tb– Lu). Xenotime-(Y) is a common accessory mineral in metamorphic rocks and a range of mineral deposits where it controls the mobility of heavy REE, however, the impact of high temperature aqueous fluids on the behavior of heavy REE is largely unknown. Thermodynamic modeling can be utilized as a tool to predict the mobility of REE in hydrothermal aqueous fluids, but must be supported by accurate experimental data. Here, we measured the solubility of endmember synthetic xenotime-structured ErPO4 in NaCl-HCl-NaOH-bearing aqueous solutions at 350 °C and water vapor saturation pressure, at 400 and at 450 °C and 500 bar using batch-type Inconel reactors. Erbium speciation was investigated as a function of pH from 2.8 to 8, where Er chloride species are predominant at acidic conditions (pH <3) and Er hydroxyl complexes are predominant at near- neutral to alkaline conditions (pH >3). At pH 7–9, the measured ErPO 4 solubility (-9.8 to -7.5 log m Er ) is up to 2.5 orders of magnitude lower than thermodynamic predictions (-9.4 to -6.7 log m Er ) using existing thermodynamic databases. At pH 2–3, the predicted ErPO 4 solubility is ~0.5 orders of magnitude higher at 350 °C and ~1 order of magnitude lower at 450 °C compared to experimentally measured Er concentrations. The thermodynamic properties of aqueous Er species were therefore revised in this study. The partial molal Gibbs energy of formation (Δ f G 0 T,P ) for aqueous Er hydroxyl and chloride species are optimized using GEMSFITS and the logarithmic formation constants (logβ n ( Cl,OH) ) were derived at each experimental temperature and pressure. The updated thermodynamic properties for Er hydroxyl species (Er(OH) +2 , Er(OH) 2 + , and Er(OH) 3 0 ) show that their stability shifts to more acidic conditions at and below 400 °C. The Er chloride species (ErCl +2 and ErCl 2 + ) show increased stability compared to Er hydroxyl species at temperatures of 450 °C and 0.01 mol/kg NaCl. The updated thermodynamic properties are implemented into the GEM-Selektor modeling package to investigate the mobility of Er in saline hydrothermal fluids in equilibrium with alkaline rocks. Importantly, the updated properties for Er hydroxyl species result in low Er solubility at rock equilibrated pH conditions due to an expanded hydroxyl predominance zone, but lower aqueous complex stability overall, whereas previous models suggest greater stability for aqueous Er species. Furthermore, ErPO 4 solubility increases with decreasing temperature due to the deprotonation of HCl, which increases the acidity of hydrothermal fluids and the availability of Cl - to complex with the REE. These simulations highlight how fluid-rock reaction and temperature affect the mobility of REE in hydrothermal ore-forming systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

In-Situ Detection and Prediction of WAAM Cross Feature Geometry

Abstract Wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) is increasingly used by manufacturers due to its relatively low cost and high deposition rate compared to other metal AM methods, but the parts produced by WAAM can be subject to localized variations in part quality. One such variation is the cross-feature defect, whereby a localized part height increase occurs due to the crossing of deposition toolpaths. Mitigation of this defect is typically achieved using manual path planning strategies, but closed-loop control is underutilized. Since the nature of this defect and of the WAAM process is such that the previous layer’s geometry influences that of the subsequent layer’s, the cross-feature defect geometry changes throughout the deposition. Therefore, any closed-loop control strategy will need to incorporate the dynamic trait of this defect. The present work seeks to implement an in-situ process modeling approach where a regression model can be continuously updated to predict the defect geometry of the subsequent deposition layer based on the historical process data. Several multi-layer cross-feature geometries are deposited and current, voltage, and optical camera data is taken for each layer. The resulting cross-feature geometries are characterized using 3D scanning and the performance and accuracy of the in-situ modeling approach is evaluated.

Thien, Austen↗

Baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging is associated with subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease

Background: The role and implementation of tau PET imaging for predicting subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remains uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET and subsequent longitudinal change across multiple cognitive measures over 18 months. Methods: Our analyses incorporated data from 67 participants, including cognitively normal controls (n = 10) and β-amyloid (Aβ)-positive individuals ([ 18 F] florbetapir Aβ PET) with prodromal (n = 26), mild (n = 16), or moderate (n = 15) AD. Baseline measurements included cortical volume (MRI), tau burden ([ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET), and cognitive assessments [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), 13-item version of the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13), and Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS)]. Cognitive assessments were repeated at 6-month intervals over an 18-month period. Associations between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET indices and longitudinal cognitive performance were assessed via univariate (Spearman correlations) and multivariate (linear mixed effects models) approaches. The utility of potential prognostic tau PET cut points was assessed with ROC curves. Results: Univariate analyses indicated that greater baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET signal was associated with faster rates of subsequent decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13 across regions of interest (ROIs). In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline age, cognitive performance, cortical volume, and Aβ PET SUVR, the prognostic performance of [ 18 F]GTP1 SUVR was most robust in the whole cortical gray ROI. When AD participants were dichotomized into low versus high tau subgroups based on baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 PET standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in the temporal (cutoff = 1.325) or whole cortical gray (cutoff = 1.245) ROIs, high tau subgroups demonstrated significantly more decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13. Conclusions: Our results suggest that [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET represents a prognostic biomarker in AD and are consistent with data from other tau PET tracers. Tau PET imaging may have utility for identifying AD patients at risk for more rapid cognitive decline and for stratification and/or enrichment of participant selection in AD clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Feedback, physics, and forecasts: The emerging paradigm of machine learning-driven battery research

Machine learning (ML) is reshaping how we understand, predict, and optimize electrochemical systems. In batteries, ML accelerates discovery across chemistry, design, and operation by transforming massive experimental and simulated datasets into predictive, interpretable models. This review consolidates a decade of progress in ML-driven battery innovation, from early-cycle feature extraction to operando image analysis and physics-informed modeling. We categorize approaches by data domain and physical fidelity, emphasizing interpretable ML for diagnostics, reinforcement learning for control, and multi-objective optimization for lifetime extension strategies. Additionally, we demonstrate how integrated models accelerate discovery, reduce testing time, and guide sustainable design. Economic analyses furthermore illustrate how these advances can lower cost per cycle and improve circularity. Together, these developments chart a path toward self-optimizing, sustainable battery technologies.

artificial intelligence↗

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Feasibility of Adding Twitter Data to Aid Drought Depiction: Case Study in Colorado

The use of social media, such as Twitter, has changed the information landscape for citizens’ participation in crisis response and recovery activities. Given that drought progression is slow and also spatially extensive, an interesting set of questions arise, such as how the usage of Twitter by a large population may change during the development of a major drought alongside how the changing usage facilitates drought detection. For this reason, contemporary analysis of how social media data, in conjunction with meteorological records, was conducted towards improvement in the detection of drought and its progression. The research utilized machine learning techniques applied over satellite-derived drought conditions in Colorado. Three different machine learning techniques were examined: the generalized linear model, support vector machines and deep learning, each applied to test the integration of Twitter data with meteorological records as a predictor of drought development. It is found that the integration of data resources is viable given that the Twitter-based model outperformed the control run which did not include social media input. Eight of the ten models tested showed quantifiable improvements in the performance over the control run model, suggesting that the Twitter-based model was superior in predicting drought severity. Future work lies in expanding this method to depict drought in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analytic model for assessing the thermal performance of scuba divers

A biothermal model with a physically-controlled subsystem and a dynamically-controlled subsystem is developed to simulate the thermoregulatory system of man under immersed conditions. The model is consistent with experimental data for seminude subjects immersed to neck in cool to temperate water and for 'wet-suited' subjects immersed to neck in cold water. Equations are derived for predicting body temperatures under various dive conditions.

Montgomery, L. D.↗

Prediction of aerodynamic characteristics of cruciform missiles to high angles of attack

A comprehensive method has been developed to predict the static aerodynamic characteristics of missiles with one or two sets of cruciform fins. The method, utilizing a data base augmented by analysis, is applicable over the Mach number range 0.8 to 3.0 and for angles of attack from 0 to 45 deg. Arbitrary bank angles and control deflections are allowed. Loads are calculated on each component of the missile and include effects of body and fin vortices. Comparison with data shows good agreement over a wide range of flight conditions.

Smith, C. A.↗

Comparison of analytical and wind-tunnel results for flutter and gust response of a transport wing with active controls

Two flutter suppression control laws wre designed and tested on a low speed aeroelastic model of a DC-10 derivative wing. Both control laws demontrated increases in flutter speed in excess of 25 percent above the passive wing flutter speed. In addition, one of the control laws was effective in reducing loads due to turbulence generated in the wind tunnel. The effect of variations in gain and phase on the closed-loop performance was measured and is compared with predictions. In general, both flutter and gust response predictions agree reasonably well with experimental data.

Abel, I.↗

Location of spaceborne SAR imagery

A method has been developed to determine the location of a pixel in a digital SAR image. This technique utilizes the spacecraft ephemeris data and the characteristics of the SAR data collection system to produce an estimate of the latitude and longitude of an arbitary pixel. This approach has an advantage over previous techniques in that it requires no reference points and is independent of spacecraft attitude knowledge or control. Tests were conducted using Seasat SAR imagery, comparing predicted feature location with the location as determined by high precision area maps. Rusults indicate an accuracy of 200 m is attainable with this method. Error sources are analyzed and recommendations are given to improve image location accuracy in future spaceborne SAR's.

Curlander, J. C.↗

Reconstruction of the shuttle reentry air data parameters using a linearized Kalman filter

This paper presents the reconstruction of the space shuttle's wind-relative reentry trajectory for the orbital flights. The technique uses a linearized Kalman filter (LKF) to merge highand low-frequency inertial and wind-relative data to obtain enhanced high-frequency results that closely follow expected mean levels. Two verifications are presented. First, wind trajectories resulting from the reconstruction are compared with analytically predicted values. There is close comparison. Second, the frequency characteristics are investigated using system identification techniques. The stability and control model generated using the LKF trajectory shows good agreement between measured and predicted spacecraft response for both high and low frequencies.

Whitmore, S. A.↗

Fuel-injector/air-swirl characterization

The objectives of this program are to establish an experimental data base documenting the behavior of gas turbine engine fuel injector sprays as the spray interacts with the swirling gas flow existing in the combustor dome, and to conduct an assessment of the validity of current analytical techniques for predicting fuel spray behavior. Emphasis is placed on the acquisition of data using injector/swirler components which closely resemble components currently in use in advanced aircraft gas turbine engines, conducting tests under conditions that closely simulate or closely approximate those developed in actual combustors, and conducting a well-controlled experimental effort which will comprise using a combination of low-risk experiments and experiments requiring the use of state-of-the-art diagnostic instrumentation. Analysis of the data is to be conducted using an existing, TEACH-type code which employs a stochastic analysis of the motion of the dispersed phase in the turbulent continuum flow field.

Mcvey, J. B.↗

Assessment of external contamination for Space Station scientific payloads

This paper presents the analysis of the nature, the source, and the effect of contamination encountered by payloads external to the Space Station spacecraft. The contaminant modeling study determined the key contaminant sources for the Space Station payloads, together with the location, the duration, the major constituents of the contaminant, and the possibility of contaminant control. The next phase of the contamination modeling study investigates the compatibility of external Space Station payloads while on the transverse boom and the dual keel option. Other predictions include depositions on payload surfaces facing along +X, +Y, and +Z directions. An additional analysis will utilize the above data to predict the spectral brightness of the contaminants along payload lines-of-sight, making it possible for payload users to determine the impact of the contaminant background relative to the natural background.

Primeaux, Gary R.↗

Experimental and theoretical aerodynamic characteristics of a high-lift semispan wing model

Experimental and theoretical aerodynamic characteristics were compared for a high-lift, semispan wing configuration that incorporated a slightly modified version of the NASA Advanced Laminar Flow Control airfoil section. The experimental investigation was conducted in the Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel at chord Reynolds numbers of 2.36 and 3.33 million. A two-dimensional airfoil code and a three-dimensional panel code were used to obtain aerodynamic predictions. Two-dimensional data were corrected for three-dimensional effects. Comparisons between predicted and measured values were made for the cruise configuration and for various high-lift configurations. Both codes predicted lift and pitching moment coefficients that agreed well with experiment for the cruise configuration. These parameters were overpredicted for all high-lift configurations. Drag coefficient was underpredicted for all cases. Corrected two-dimensional pressure distributions typically agreed well with experiment, while the panel code overpredicted the leading-edge suction peak on the wing. One important feature missing from both of these codes was a capability for separated flow analysis. The major cause of disparity between the measured data and predictions presented herein was attributed to separated flow conditions.

Applin, Zachary T.↗