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NASA NTRS1986

Particle track measurements in lunar regolith breccias

Particle track measurements have been reported for 25 (5 percent) of the regolith breccias in the collection; they have been reported for 16 breccias (30%) in the reference suite. The most frequently reported measurement for these 25 breccias is the maximum surface exposure age of the compacted rock (48% of the published breccia measurements). Information on the nature of the precompaction regolith is given for 9 rocks (36%) and on the nature of the compaction event for 6 rocks (24%). Most of the breccias appear to have simple post compaction surface exposure histories (89%). From the few track density frequency distributions (7) that are available and inferring from the low exposure ages of these rocks (75% were younger than 10 to the 6th years), it appears that most of these breccias are amenable to studies which separate the contemporary surface exposure age from information about the precompaction regolith. If the number of immature submature precompaction soils (6 out of 10 of the breccias for which appropriate data are available) represents many regolith breccias, then it is inferred that regolith breccias may sample the deeper, less reworked materials in the lunar soil and compliment the samples available from the returned cores.

Blanford, G. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gallium isotopic constraints for the origin of the Earth-Moon system

Comparatively heavy isotopic compositions of moderately volatile elements (MVE) in lunar rocks have been advocated to reflect the loss of light isotopes during devolatilization processes from the Moon. In this study we present new gallium (Ga) isotope data for lunar highland rocks, with a focus on the Ferroan Anorthosite Suite (FAS). These are commonly thought to be direct crystallization products from the late lunar magma ocean (LMO) and should contain the majority of the Ga inventory of the Moon. As such, FAS rocks are crucial for identifying the processes that drove Ga isotope fractionation as well as for inferring the Ga isotopic composition of the bulk Moon. Our data reveal that FAS samples have a range in δ 71 Ga from -0.27 to 0.22‰ and are generally isotopically light in Ga compared to other lunar lithologies, but straddle values typical of terrestrial rocks. Although Ga is defined as an MVE, these Ga isotope variations do not correspond with concentrations of more volatile elements, indicating that Ga isotope variations in the FAS are not primarily controlled by devolatilization processes. Instead, the Ga isotopic compositions of bulk FAS rocks broadly correlate with the composition of plagioclase, with the calcium content of plagioclase decreasing as Ga becomes isotopically heavier. This suggests that fractionation of Ga isotopes in FAS rocks was caused by the preferential incorporation of isotopically light Ga into plagioclase during the later solidification stages of the LMO. The progressive crystallization and extraction of plagioclase forces the residual melt towards increasingly heavier Ga isotope ratios, corroborating similar conclusions derived from correlations between δ 71 and Eu* in the mare basalt suite. Using Ga isotope partitioning calculations, we demonstrate that an isotope fractionation coefficient between plagioclase and coexisting melt of -0.3 to -0.4‰ could explain the observed range of δ 71 values in FAS, mare basalt suite rocks, and KREEP. These calculations allow for a first order estimate of the Ga isotopic composition of the bulk silicate Moon prior to plagioclase fractionation and suggest it was close to the composition of the bulk silicate Earth. This would imply that the Moon did not lose a substantial fraction of its Ga inventory during accretion, consistent with new constraints from Rb-Sr isotope systematics that indicate the Moon's volatile deficit was primarily inherited from Theia. In conjunction with the overlap in non-mass-dependent isotope ratios, these collective observations could be reconciled if Theia and the proto-Earth formed in similar regions of the inner Solar System that were already volatile-depleted.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1984

Particle track measurements in lunar regolith breccias

Particle track measurements have been reported for 25 (5 percent) of the regolith breccias in the collection; they have been reported for 16 breccias (30 percent) in the reference suite. The most frequently reported measurement for these 25 breccias is the maximum surface exposure age of the compacted rock (48 percent of the published breccia measurements). Information on the nature of the precompaction regolith is given for 9 rocks (36 percent) and on the nature of the compaction event for 6 rocks (24 percent). Most of the breccias appear to have simple post-compaction surface exposure histories (89 percent). From the few track density frequency distributions (7) that are available and inferring from the low exposure ages of these rocks (75 percent were younger than 10 to the 6th years), it appears that most of these breccias are amenable to studies which separate the contemporary surface exposure age from information about the precompaction regolith. If the number of immature-submature precompaction soils (6 out of 10 of the breccias for which appropriate data are available) represents many regolith breccias, then we can infer that regolith breccias may sample the deeper, less reworked materials in the lunar soil and compliment the samples available from the returned cores.

Blanford, G. E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning-Based Classification of Lignocellulosic Biomass from Pyrolysis-Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry Data

High-throughput analysis of biomass is necessary to ensure consistent and uniform feedstocks for agricultural and bioenergy applications and is needed to inform genomics and systems biology models. Pyrolysis followed by mass spectrometry such as molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) analyses are becoming increasingly popular for the rapid analysis of biomass cell wall composition and typically require the use of different data analysis tools depending on the need and application. Here, the authors report the py-MBMS analysis of several types of lignocellulosic biomass to gain an understanding of spectral patterns and variation with associated biomass composition and use machine learning approaches to classify, differentiate, and predict biomass types on the basis of py-MBMS spectra. Py-MBMS spectra were also corrected for instrumental variance using generalized linear modeling (GLM) based on the use of select ions relative abundances as spike-in controls. Machine learning classification algorithms e.g., random forest, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, gradient boosting, and multilayer perceptron classifiers were used. The k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) classifier generally performed the best for classifications using raw spectral data, and the decision tree classifier performed the worst. After normalization of spectra to account for instrumental variance, all the classifiers had comparable and generally acceptable performance for predicting the biomass types, although the k-NN and decision tree classifiers were not as accurate for prediction of specific sample types. Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) classifiers performed better than the k-NN and the decision tree classifiers for the prediction of biomass mixtures. The data analysis workflow reported here could be applied and extended for comparison of biomass samples of varying types, species, phenotypes, and/or genotypes or subjected to different treatments, environments, etc. to further elucidate the sources of spectral variance, patterns, and to infer compositional information based on spectral analysis, particularly for analysis of data without a priori knowledge of the feedstock composition or identity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-11045-DND

The International TOVS Working Group (ITWG) is convened as a sub-group of the International Radiation Commission (IRC) of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (IAMAP). The ITWG continues to organize international TOVS study conferences which have met approximately every 18 months since 1983. The most recent conference, the seventeenth International TOVS Study Conference (ITSC-XVII) was held in Monterey, California from 12 to 20 April 2010. This report will cover the current ITWG status, objectives, activities, along with recommendations formulated during the recent ITSC conference to be forwarded to space agencies, operational NWP centers and the scientific community on issues ranging from data processing methods, derived products, and the impacts of radiances and inferred atmospheric temperature and moisture fields on numerical weather prediction, and weather and climate studies. Also to be reported on are activities of the technical sub-groups which meet informally to coordinate ATOVS processing software, radiative transfer models, sounding data for climate studies, use of sounding data in data assimilation/NWP, international issues, and future systems and frequency protection issues relevant to ATOVS. As the result of ITSC-XVII, a paper report and electronic proceedings are being formulated and will soon be published and distributed. The conference Working Group Report will summarize the recommendations and actions of these working sub-groups. Technical Proceedings of the scientific presentations and posters will also published. The ITWG web site (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/itwg/) contains electronic versions of the conference papers, presentations and posters from earlier ITSCs. Together, these documents and web pages reflect the conduct of highly successful international collaborations.

Steve English↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗

DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probing the axion-electron coupling with NuSTAR observations of galaxies

We search for the existence of ultralight axions coupling to electrons and photons using data from the NuSTAR telescope directed toward the galaxies M82, M87, and M31. We focus on electron bremsstrahlung and Compton scattering for axion production in stars, summing over the stellar populations found in the target galaxies when computing the axion luminosity. We then compute the hard x-ray signal that arises from the conversion of these axions to photons in each galaxy’s magnetic fields, inferred from analog galaxies in cosmological magnetohydrodynamic simulations. Analyzing NuSTAR data toward these galaxies between roughly 20 to 70 keV, we find no evidence for axions and set leading constraints on the combined axion-electron and axion-photon coupling at the level of |𝑔 𝑎⁢𝑒⁢𝑒 ×𝑔 𝑎⁢𝛾⁢𝛾 | ≲ 8.3 ×10 −27 GeV −1 for 𝑚 𝑎 ≲ 10 −10 eV at 95% confidence, with M82 providing the most stringent constraints.

Axion-like particles↗

NASA NTRS1991

Measurement of tropospheric carbon monoxide using gas filter radiometers

The measurement of tropospheric carbon monoxide with gas filter radiometers is examined on the basis of the MAPS experiment. The performance characteristics of an instrument that uses the MAPS detectors, broadband filters, and gas cells in a system similar to the GASCOFIL system described by Morrow and Nicholls (1985) is determined. The signal function for two carbon monoxide channels of the MAPS instrument as it was flown in 1981 is shown. The measurements of the lower pressure channel are weighted to a higher altitude. The signal function, when integrated over altitude and multiplied by the normalization constant, yields the value of the signal. Both signal functions approach zero at the top because the gas concentration approaches zero. The present data reduction technique assumes that there are no clouds in the field of view. If clouds are present, the inferred carbon monoxide mixing ratio is too high, and those points must be rejected from the data set.

Reichle, Henry G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Multivariate normality

Sets of experimentally determined or routinely observed data provide information about the past, present and, hopefully, future sets of similarly produced data. An infinite set of statistical models exists which may be used to describe the data sets. The normal distribution is one model. If it serves at all, it serves well. If a data set, or a transformation of the set, representative of a larger population can be described by the normal distribution, then valid statistical inferences can be drawn. There are several tests which may be applied to a data set to determine whether the univariate normal model adequately describes the set. The chi-square test based on Pearson's work in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries is often used. Like all tests, it has some weaknesses which are discussed in elementary texts. Extension of the chi-square test to the multivariate normal model is provided. Tables and graphs permit easier application of the test in the higher dimensions. Several examples, using recorded data, illustrate the procedures. Tests of maximum absolute differences, mean sum of squares of residuals, runs and changes of sign are included in these tests. Dimensions one through five with selected sample sizes 11 to 101 are used to illustrate the statistical tests developed.

Crutcher, H. L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

On Bayesian Inductive Inference & Predictive Estimation

We investigate Bayesian inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) as methods for doing inference under uncertainty. This investigation is primarily through concrete examples that have been previously investigated in the literature. We find that it is possible to do Bayesian inference and PME inference using the same information, despite claims to the contrary, but that the results are not directly comparable. This is because Bayesian inference yields a probability density function (pdf) over the unknown model parameters, whereas PME yields point estimates. If mean estimates are extracted from the Bayesian pdfs, the resulting parameter estimates can differ radically from the PME values and also from the Maximum Likelihood values. We conclude that these differences are due to the Bayesian inference not assuming anything beyond the given prior probabilities and the data, whereas PME implicitly assumes that the given constraints are the only constraints that are operating. Since this assumption can be wrong, PME values may have to be revised when subsequent data shows evidence for more constraints. The entropy concentration previously "proved" by E. T. Jaynes is shown to be in error. Further, we show that PME is a generalized form of independence assumption, and so can be a very powerful method of inference when the variables being investigated are largely independent of each other.

Cheeseman, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2020

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: Issues and perspectives

The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd,ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions which also comprises rapid adjustments. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd,ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large scale (hundreds of kilometres) ΔNd,ant remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and vertical wind and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of 10s of metres at which only localized observations are available and at which no approach exists yet to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are three key uncertainties in determining ΔNd,ant, namely the quantification (i) of the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (CCN) at or above cloud base –, (ii) of Nd, as well as (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data. A fourth uncertainty, the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, is also not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: In terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, the non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, the impossibility to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilizing colocated polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high spectral resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximize vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity, and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd – to – CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

Twomey effect↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of effective actinides neutron capture cross sections in a cadmium-filtered epithermal neutron spectrum

In this work, a total of 20 actinide samples were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL): 233 U (1), 235 U (1), 236 U (1), 238 U (1), 237 Np (2), 239 Pu (1), 240 Pu (1), 242 Pu (2), 244 Pu (2), 241 Am (2), 243 Am (2), 244 Cm (2), and 248 Cm (2). The samples were loaded in a basket containing a 1.1-mm thick cadmium filter. The presence of the filter drastically changes the neutron spectrum in the samples and accentuates the reaction rates in the resonance region. Isotopic ratios were determined using Multi-Collector Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) that allowed inferring effective capture cross sections. Detailed best-estimate MCNP models of the experiment using ENDF/B-VII.0 nuclear data were developed to calculate the effective neutron cross sections and, subsequently, compare them with the cross sections inferred from experimental results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1990

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Lorius, C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operator inference for non-intrusive model reduction with quadratic manifolds

This paper proposes a novel approach for learning a data-driven quadratic manifold from high-dimensional data, then employing this quadratic manifold to derive efficient physics-based reduced-order models. The key ingredient of the approach is a polynomial mapping between high-dimensional states and a low-dimensional embedding. This mapping consists of two parts: a representation in a linear subspace (computed in this work using the proper orthogonal decomposition) and a quadratic component. The approach can be viewed as a form of data-driven closure modeling, since the quadratic component introduces directions into the approximation that lie in the orthogonal complement of the linear subspace, but without introducing any additional degrees of freedom to the low-dimensional representation. Combining the quadratic manifold approximation with the operator inference method for projection-based model reduction leads to a scalable non-intrusive approach for learning reduced-order models of dynamical systems. Further, applying the new approach to transport-dominated systems of partial differential equations illustrates the gains in efficiency that can be achieved over approximation in a linear subspace.

42 ENGINEERING↗