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DOE OSTI2025

Role of Intersections in Fracture Connectivity

Networks of intersecting fractures often provide the flow paths through subsurface reservoirs. Assessing network connectivity is challenging because fracture intersections compose a vanishingly small fraction of the network void volume. In this paper, motivated by 3D X-ray imaging of the simplest element of fracture network, that is, two orthogonal fractures, we perform a percolation and finite-size scaling analysis to study the connectivity provided by fracture intersections. The conditions when an intersection enhances connectivity across a sample depend on spatial correlations in the fracture aperture distributions, on the stress state, and on the direction of flow. Here we consider three flow directions: (a) across intersections, (b) parallel to intersections and (c) around corners. For (a), intersections provide minimal enhancement of connectivity because they contribute little additional void area. For (b), intersections increase the probability of a connected path near threshold by enabling 3D connected pathways that are not possible in parallel fractures. Flow around corners, (c), is fundamentally the result of the intersection connecting two fractures in series and spatial correlations are broken around corners, suppressing the connectivity relative to (a). When the connected fractures are stressed equally, a joint percolation threshold emerges that continues to have scale invariance. However, when the fractures are stressed unequally, the system has mixed percolation without clearly defined percolation thresholds. In all cases, percolation probabilities are found to be scale dependent which has important consequences for the connectivity of larger fracture networks composed of the fundamental element studied here.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reweighting configurations generated by transferable, machine learned models for protein sidechain backmapping

Multiscale modeling requires the linking of models at different levels of detail, with the goal of gaining accelerations from lower fidelity models while recovering fine details from higher resolution models. Communication across resolutions is particularly important in modeling soft matter, where tight couplings exist between molecular-level details and mesoscale structures. While multiscale modeling of biomolecules has become a critical component in exploring their structure and self-assembly, backmapping from coarse-grained to fine-grained, or atomistic, representations presents a challenge, despite recent advances through machine learning. A major hurdle, especially for strategies utilizing machine learning, is that backmappings can only approximately recover the atomistic ensemble of interest. We demonstrate conditions for which backmapped configurations may be reweighted to exactly recover the desired atomistic ensemble. By training separate decoding models for each sidechain type, we develop an algorithm based on normalizing flows and geometric algebra attention to autoregressively propose backmapped configurations for any protein sequence. Critical for reweighting with modern protein force fields, our trained models include all hydrogen atoms in the backmapping and make probabilities associated with atomistic configurations directly accessible. We also demonstrate, however, that reweighting is extremely challenging despite state-of-the-art performance on recently developed metrics and generation of configurations with low energies in atomistic protein force fields. Through detailed analysis of configurational weights, we show that machine-learned backmappings must not only generate configurations with reasonable energies, but also correctly assign relative probabilities under the generative model. These are broadly important considerations in generative modeling of atomistic molecular configurations.

Monroe, Jacob I. [Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uniform field in microwave cavities through the use of effective magnetic walls

Wire medium (WM) resonators have emerged as a promising realization for plasma haloscopes—devices designed to detect axions, a potential component of dark matter. Key factors influencing the detection probability include cavity volume, resonance quality factor, and form factor. While the form factor has been explored for resonant frequency tuning, its optimization for axion detection remains unexplored. Here, in this work, we present an approach to significantly enhancing the form factor of WM plasma haloscopes. By shifting the metal walls of the resonator by a quarter wavelength, we effectively convert an electric wall boundary condition into a magnetic wall one, allowing for an almost uniform mode. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations confirm that this modification improves the electric field profile and boosts the form factor, while also slightly enhancing the quality factor. We validate these findings through experimental results from two prototype resonators: one with a standard geometry and another with a quarter-wave air gap between the WM and the walls. Additionally, our method provides a simple way to control the field profile within WM cavities, which can be explored for further applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strengthening Resilience: Florida Resident Voices on Resource Needs During Power Outages

Extreme weather events related to climate change, and an aging electricity infrastructure are disrupting reliable electricity services to a greater degree. Further, previous research has found that more socially vulnerable populations are more likely to live in areas with a higher probability of power outages. Here, this study examines the issues that people face during power outages and the resources that help individuals maintain resilience during power outages caused by extreme weather events in socially vulnerable communities. Using qualitative data from focus groups with 56 individuals in Central and North Florida, the research highlights lived experiences during outages and difficulties using and accessing resources during these conditions. Based on a qualitative review of the focus group discussions, this paper explores the solutions and support systems residents believe would improve their ability to cope. The findings offer insights to guide policy and strategic planning, with the goal of strengthening personal preparedness and response by focusing on the resources people consider most helpful for enduring frequent and severe outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1965

Contamination analysis and monitoring

"Sterilization" is a term applied to any process or procedure that produces a condition of sterility. Sterility is an absolute concept and refers to the destruction or removal of all life. However, when sterility as an absolute concept is applied to the sterilization of space hardware, it ceases to be operational. Absolute proof of sterility of flight hardware is impossible. Hence, for an operational approach to certification of sterility of space hardware, it is necessary to apply the probability concept. The present report is concerned with the applicability of mathematics to predict the probability of achieving sterility in a complex space hardware system. As such, this approach is concerned with the manipulation of microbiological data rather than mathematical rigor.

contamination↗

NASA NTRS1992

Environmental effects on lunar astronomical observatories

The Moon offers a stable platform with excellent seeing conditions for astronomical observations. Some troublesome aspects of the lunar environment will need to be overcome to realize the full potential of the Moon as an observatory site. Mitigation of negative effects of vacuum, thermal radiation, dust, and micrometeorite impact is feasible with careful engineering and operational planning. Shields against impact, dust, and solar radiation need to be developed. Means of restoring degraded surfaces are probably essential for optical and thermal control surfaces deployed in long-lifetime lunar facilities. Precursor missions should be planned to validate and enhance the understanding of the lunar environment (e.g., dust behavior without and with human presence) and to determine environmental effects on surfaces and components. Precursor missions should generate data useful in establishing keepout zones around observatory facilities where rocket launches and landings, mining, and vehicular traffic could be detrimental to observatory operation.

Johnson, Stewart W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Foam on Tile Impact Modeling for the Space Shuttle Program

Following the breakup of the Space Shuttle Columbia during reentry a NASA-wide investigation team was formed to examine the probable damage inflicted on Orbiter Thermal Protection System (TPS) elements by impact of External Tank insulating foam projectiles. Our team was to apply rigorous, physics-based analysis techniques to help determine parameters of interest for an experimental test program, utilize validated codes to investigate the full range of impact scenarios, and use analysis derived models to predict aero-thermal-structural responses to entry conditions. We were to operate on a non-interference basis with the j Team, and were to supply significant findings to that team and to the Orbiter Vehicle Engineering Working Group, being responsive to any solicitations for support from these entities. The authors formed a working sub-group within the larger team to apply the Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics code SPHC to the damage estimation problem. Numerical models of the LI-900 TPS tiles and of the BX-250 foam were constructed and used as inputs into the code. Material properties needed to properly model the tiles and foam were obtained from other working sub-groups who performed tests on these items for this purpose. Two- and three- dimensional models of the tiles were constructed, including the glass outer layer, the densified lower layer of LI-900 insulation, the Nomex felt Strain Isolation Pad (SIP) mounting layer, and the underlying aluminum 2024 vehicle skin. A model for the BX-250 foam including porous compression, elastic rebound, and surface erosion was developed. Code results for the tile damage and foam behavior were extensively validated through comparison with the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) foam-on-tile impact experiments carried out in 1999. These tests involved small projectiles striking individual tiles and small tile arrays. Following code and model validation we simulated impacts of larger ET foam projectiles on the TPS tile systems used on the wings of the orbiter. Tiles used on the Wing Acreage, the Main Landing Gear Door, and the Carrier Panels near the front edge of the wing were modeled. Foam impacts shot for the CAB investigation were modeled, as well as impacts at larger angles, including rapid rotation of the projectile, and with varying foam properties. General results suggest that foam impacts on tiles at about 500 mph could cause appreciable damage if the impact angle is greater than about 20 degrees. Some variations of the foam properties, such as increased brittleness or increased density could increase damage in some cases. Rapid (17 rps) rotation failed to increase the damage for the two cases considered. This does not rule out other cases in which the rotational energy might lead to an increase in tile damage, but suggests that in most cases rotation will not be an important factor. Similar models will be applied for other impacting materials, other velocities, and other geometries as part of the Return to Flight process.

Stellingwerf, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A Dynamic Failure Model for Predicting the Impact that a Program Location has on the Program

This paper presents a dynamic technique for predicting the effect that a "location" of a program will have on the program's computational behavior. The technique is based on the three necessary and sufficient conditions for software failure to occur: (1) a fault must be executed, (2) the fault must adversely affect the data state, and (3) the adverse effect in a data state must affect program output. In order to predict the effect that a location of a program will have on the program's computational behavior, the following characteristics of each program location are estimated: (1) the probability that a location of the program is executed, (2) the probability that a location of the program noticeably affects the program state created by the location, and (3) the probability that the data states created by a location affect the program's output. With estimates of these characteristics for each location in a program, we can predict those locations where a fault can more easily remain undetected during testing, as well as predict the degree of testing necessary to be convinced that a fault is not remaining undetected in a particular location.

Voas, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS2006

Pyroxenes in Martian meteorites as petrogenetic indicators

Pyroxenes in Martian meteorites are important recorders of petrogenetic processes. Understanding the details of pyroxene major and minor element compositional variations can provide important insights into those processes. A combination of careful petrographic analysis of natural samples and experimental crystallization studies can lead to better understanding of the processes that gave rise to these samples on Mars. In addition, experimentally determined major, minor and trace element partition coefficients are important for using natural pyroxenes to estimate the compositions of the melts from which they crystallized and the oxidation conditions that prevailed during crystallization. We will report on minor element (Al, Ti, Cr) zoning in nakhlite pyroxenes and in synthetic pyroxenes that we have grown for the purposes of determining pyroxene/melt partition coefficients for Sr and REE. The natural pyroxenes have patchy Al zoning that, by analogy with our experimental pyroxenes, we interpret as sector zoning. The irregular patchy nature of the zoning is probably the result of the vagaries of growth kinetics and local environment during crystal growth. More slowly cooled nakhlites have the most distinct bimodal zoning, with one mode having Al2O3 around 0.5-0.6 wt%, and the other around 0.9 %. Average Al content increases with increasing cooling rate. This feature is puzzling, since the cumulus pyroxenes were almost certainly present at the time of eruption. Al and Ti are strongly correlated, but Cr is completely decoupled from those elements. The synthetic pyroxenes are distinctly sector zoned in Al and Ti, and the sector-to-sector variation in Al within a single crystal has important effects on trace element partition coefficients. Trivalent REE are strongly correlated with Al, while divalent elements (Sr, Eu+2) show a significantly weaker correlation. For example, as the Al2O3 content varies from 0.3 to 0.6 wt % from one sector to another, D(Gd) increases by approx.80% while D(Sr) and D(Eu) only increase by 20-30% at oxygen fugacities near IW. The different Al dependency of D for trivalent REE vs. divalent Eu and Sr considerably complicates the calibration of the Eu oxybarometer.

McKay, Gordon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of the subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography and ultrasound. The concept of the conflation of probability distributions is applied to combine the posterior distributions derived from thermography and ultrasound and the quality of the fused estimates are compared against the individual estimates against synthetic data that was created to mimic the inspection of a lap joint comprised of aluminum adherends.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Relationship Between the Marginal Probability of Failure for a CPP Test and the Recommended Corrosion Control Requirements for Hanford Double Shell Waste Tanks

The Hanford Site in Washington State currently stores millions of gallons of radioactive waste in underground, carbon steel, double shell tanks (DSTs) that were constructed between 1968 and 1986. A chemistry control and monitoring program has been established mitigate corrosion in order to extend the service life for the DSTs. The current waste temperatures in the DSTs are at historical lows (i.e., typically less than 50 °C). The previous chemistry control requirements were determined for conditions at temperatures significantly higher. SRNL undertook a statistically based investigation of the role of nitrate and halide ion (i.e., chloride and fluoride) induced pitting corrosion. The objective was to develop a comprehensive waste chemistry envelope for the simultaneous minimization of the pitting and SCC risks caused by halide and nitrate ions at the lower temperature conditions. On the basis of these tests, new chemistry control requirements were proposed and have since been implemented for pitting corrosion control.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗

DOE OSTI2021

HEPA Filter Age Evaluation Report

In 2020, PNNL completed a literature search for high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter age information. HEPA filters are used in many operations to remove particulate matter from effluent exhaust streams. They are thought to degrade over time both during proper storage and during normal operational service; however, the rate at which the filters degrade remains unknown. This brings into question if age is an adequate indicator of HEPA filter performance. Data from six previous reports were obtained from the literature search and combined to create a data set of 1600 operating filters. Filter usage was identified from multiple facilities. The various types of filters (e.g., axial flow, self-contained, and standard 24 x 24 x 11.5 inches; and both separator and separatorless) reported were constructed to the requirements Section FC (HEPA Filters) or Section FK (Special HEPA Filters) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers AG-1 code. Filters were presumed to have continuously met the operational criteria and in particular passed both annual efficiency tests and annual DP measurements. The environmental conditions within the exhaust system were also assumed adequate for long-term filter operation. The data, by the nature of the reports, excludes rejected filters from quality assurance evaluations, intake, or installation testing. The collective data set shows over half of were operating past the current 10-year Department of Energy (DOE) limit. Data was evaluated for age lifetime using a linear trendline, survival function, probability functions, and failure rate; financial impacts were also addressed. This report supports the notion that HEPA filters can operate safely and efficiently under proper maintenance well past the 10-year lifetime established by DOE. Using the results of the four age evaluation approaches, they collectively point to the reasonableness of an operating HEPA filter lifetime of 20 years. The results are not necessarily definitive, but nevertheless, they are promising. The analysis provides reasonable assurance that when implemented using a graded approach with well-defined performance and operational requirements, extending the service life for HEPA filters beyond 10 years is low risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1978

Collision frequency of artificial satellites - The creation of a debris belt

As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain theories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth-orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.

Donald J Kessler↗

NASA NTRS1981

VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) simulation experiment for a severe storm environment

Radiance fields were simulated for prethunderstorm environments in Oklahoma to demonstrate three points: (1) significant moisture gradients can be seen directly in images of the VISSIR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) channels; (2) temperature and moisture profiles can be retrieved from VAS radiances with sufficient accuracy to be useful for mesoscale analysis of a severe storm environment; and (3) the quality of VAS mesoscale soundings improves with conditioning by local weather statistics. The results represent the optimum retrievability of mesoscale information from VAS radiance without the use of ancillary data. The simulations suggest that VAS data will yield the best soundings when a human being classifies the scene, picks relatively clear areas for retrieval, and applies a "local" statistical data base to resolve the ambiguities of satellite observations in favor of the most probable atmospheric structure.

Chesters, D.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Effect of gravity on halogenated hydrocarbon flame retardant effectiveness

Flammability limits, burning velocities, and minimum ignition energies under initially quiescent conditions were measured for stoichiometric and fuel-lean methane-, ethane-, and propane-air mixtures containing varying concentrations of Halon 1301. The characteristics of near-limit flames were strongly affected by fuel type but not Halon concentration. The conclusions were that the mechanism of the flammability limits was affected by fuel type but not Halon concentration, that the zero-g flammability limit is probably related to a stability criterion which is affected mostly by the molecular diffusion characteristics of the reactant gases and is mostly independent of chemical kinetics, and that the one-g upward flammability and ignition limits provide adequate criteria for safety at one-g and zero-g for both uninhibited and inhibited mixtures.

Ronney, P. D.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Effect of gravity on halogenated hydrocarbon flame retardant effectiveness

Ronney, P. D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Theoretical investigation of EM wave generation and radiation in the ULF, ELF, and VLF bands by the electrodynamic orbiting tether

The problem of electromagnetic wave generation by an electrodynamic tethered satellite system is important both for the ordinary operation of such systems and for their possible application as orbiting transmitters. The tether's ionospheric circuit closure problem is closely linked with the propagation of charge-carrying electromagnetic wave packets away from the tethered system. Work is reported which represents a step towards a solution to the problem that takes into account the effects of boundaries and of vertical variations in plasma density, collision frequencies, and ion species. The theory of Alfen wave packet generation by an electrodynamic tethered system in an infinite plasma medium is reviewed, and brief summary of previous work on the problem is given. The consequences of the presence of the boundaries and the vertical nonuniformity are then examined. One of the most significant new features to emerge when ion-neutral collisions are taken into account is the coupling of the Alfven waves to the fast magnetosonic wave. This latter wave is important, as it may be confined by vertical variations in the Alfven speed to a sort of leaky ionospheric wave guide, the resonances of which could be of great importance to the signal received on the Earth's surface. The infinite medium solution for this case where the (uniform) geomagnetic field makes an arbitrary angle with the vertical is taken as the incident wave-packet. Even without a full solution, a number of conclusions can be drawn, the most important of which may be that the electromagnetic field associated with the operation of a steady-current tethered system will probably be too weak to detect on the Earth's surface, even for large tethered currents. This is due to the total reflection of the incident wave at the atmospheric boundary and the inability of a steady-current tethered system to excite the ionospheric wave-guide. An outline of the approach to the numerical problem is given. The use of numerical integrations and boundary conditions consistent with a conducting Earth is proposed to obtain the solution for the horizontal electromagnetic field components at the boundary of the ionosphere with the atmospheric cavity.

Estes, Robert D.↗