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At least 1,495 records · Page 83
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Deep Gaussian Process-Based Probabilistic Electrical Load Forecasting Against Anomalous Events

The abnormal events, such as the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly change the load behaviors, leading to huge challenges for traditional short-term forecasting methods. This article proposes a robust deep Gaussian processes (DGP)-based probabilistic load forecasting method using a limited number of data. Since the proposed method only requires a limited number of training samples for load forecasting, it allows us to deal with extreme scenarios that cause short-term load behavior changes. In particular, the load forecasting at the beginning of abnormal event is cast as a regression problem with limited training samples and solved by double stochastic variational inference DGP. The mobility data are also utilized to deal with the uncertainties and pattern changes and enhance the flexibility of the forecasting model. The proposed method can quantify the uncertainties of load forecasting outcomes, which would be essential under uncertain inputs. Extensive comparison results with other state-of-the-art point and probabilistic forecasting methods show that our proposed approach can achieve high forecasting accuracies with only a limited number of data while maintaining the excellent performance of capturing the forecasting uncertainties.

anomalous events↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention

A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

An analytical study of reduced-gravity flow dynamics

Addition of surface tension forces to a marker-and-cell code and the performance of four incompressible fluid simulations in reduced gravity, were studied. This marker-and-cell code has a variable grid capability with arbitrary curved boundaries and time dependent acceleration fields. The surface tension logic includes a spline fit of surface marker particles as well as contact angle logic for straight and curved wall boundaries. Three types of flow motion were simulated with the improved code: impulsive settling in a model Centaur LH2 tank, continuous settling in a model and full scale Centaur LO2 tank and mixing in a Centaur LH2 tank. The impulsive settling case confirmed a drop tower analysis which indicated more orderly fluid collection flow patterns with this method providing a potential savings in settling propellants. In the LO2 tank, fluid collection and flow simulation into the thrust barrel were achieved. The mixing simulation produced good results indicating both the development of the flow field and fluid interface behavior.

Bradshaw, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Growth and Morphology of Phase Separating Supercritical Fluids

The scientific objective is to study the relation between the morphology and the growth kinetics of domains during phase separation. We know from previous experiments performed near the critical point of pure fluids and binary liquids that there are two simple growth laws at late times. The 'fast' growth appears when the volumes of the phases are nearly equal and the droplet pattern is interconnected. In this case the size of the droplets grows linearly in time. The 'slow' growth appears when the pattern of droplets embedded in the majority phase is disconnected. In this case the size of the droplets increases in proportion to time to the power 1/3. The volume fraction of the minority phase is a good candidate to determine this change of behavior. All previous attempts to vary the volume fraction in a single experimental cell have failed because of the extreme experimental difficulties.

Hegseth, John↗
NASA NTRS1997

Formation Flying Control of Multiple Spacecraft

The problem of coordination and control of multiple spacecraft (MS) moving in formation is considered. Here, each MS is modeled by a rigid body with fixed center of mass. First, various schemes for generating the desired formation patterns are discussed, Then, explicit control laws for formation-keeping and relative attitude alignment based on nearest neighbor-tracking are derived. The necessary data which must be communicated between the MS to achieve effective control are examined. The time-domain behavior of the feedback-controlled MS formation for typical low-Earth orbits is studied both analytically and via computer simulation. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implementation of the derived control laws, and the integration of the MS formation coordination and control system with a proposed inter-spacecraft communication/computing network.

Hadaegh, F. Y.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Single Wall Carbon Nanotube-Based Structural Health Sensing Materials

Single wall carbon nanotube (SWCNT)-based materials represent the future aerospace vehicle construction material of choice based primarily on predicted strength-to-weight advantages and inherent multifunctionality. The multifunctionality of SWCNTs arises from the ability of the nanotubes to be either metallic or semi-conducting based on their chirality. Furthermore, simply changing the environment around a SWCNT can change its conducting behavior. This phenomenon is being exploited to create sensors capable of measuring several parameters related to vehicle structural health (i.e. strain, pressure, temperature, etc.) The structural health monitor is constructed using conventional electron-beam lithographic and photolithographic techniques to place specific electrode patterns on a surface. SWCNTs are then deposited between the electrodes using a dielectrophoretic alignment technique. Prototypes have been constructed on both silicon and polyimide substrates, demonstrating that surface-mountable and multifunctional devices based on SWCNTs can be realized.

Watkins, A. Neal↗
NASA NTRS2005

Active control of Boundary Layer Separation & Flow Distortion in Adverse Pressure Gradient Flows via Supersonic Microjets

Inlets to aircraft propulsion systems must supply flow to the compressor with minimal pressure loss, flow distortion or unsteadiness. Flow separation in internal flows such as inlets and ducts in aircraft propulsion systems and external flows such as over aircraft wings, is undesirable as it reduces the overall system performance. The aim of this research has been to understand the nature of separation and more importantly, to explore techniques to actively control this flow separation. In particular, the use of supersonic microjets as a means of controlling boundary layer separation was explored. The geometry used for the early part of this study was a simple diverging Stratford ramp, equipped with arrays of supersonic microjets. Initial results, based on the mean surface pressure distribution, surface flow visualization and Planar Laser Scattering (PLS) indicated a reverse flow region. We implemented supersonic microjets to control this separation and flow visualization results appeared to suggest that microjets have a favorable effect, at least to a certain extent. However, the details of the separated flow field were difficult to determine based on surface pressure distribution, surface flow patterns and PLS alone. It was also difficult to clearly determine the exact influence of the supersonic microjets on this flow. In the latter part of this study, the properties of this flow-field and the effect of supersonic microjets on its behavior were investigated in further detail using 2-component (planar) Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The results clearly show that the activation of microjets eliminated flow separation and resulted in a significant increase in the momentum of the fluid near the ramp surface. Also notable is the fact that the gain in momentum due to the elimination of flow separation is at least an order of magnitude larger (two orders of magnitude larger in most cases) than the momentum injected by the microjets and is accomplished with very little mass flow through the microjets.

Alvi, Farrukh S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Focusing Diffraction Grating Element with Aberration Control

Diffraction gratings are optical components with regular patterns of grooves, which angularly disperse incoming light by wavelength in a single plane, called dispersion plane. Traditional gratings on flat substrates do not perform wavefront transformation in the plane perpendicular to the dispersion plane. The device proposed here exhibits regular diffraction grating behavior, dispersing light. In addition, it performs wavelength transformation (focusing or defocusing) of diffracted light in a direction perpendicular to the dispersion plane (called sagittal plane). The device is composed of a diffraction grating with the grooves in the form of equidistant arcs. It may be formed by defining a single arc or an arc approximation, then translating it along a certain direction by a distance equal to a multiple of a fixed distance ("grating period") to obtain other groove positions. Such groove layout is nearly impossible to obtain using traditional ruling methods, such as mechanical ruling or holographic scribing, but is trivial for lithographically scribed gratings. Lithographic scribing is the newly developed method first commercially introduced by LightSmyth Technologies, which produces gratings with the highest performance and arbitrary groove shape/spacing for advanced aberration control. Unlike other types of focusing gratings, the grating is formed on a flat substrate. In a plane perpendicular to the substrate and parallel to the translation direction, the period of the grating and, therefore, the projection of its k-vector onto the plane is the same for any location on the grating surface. In that plane, no waveform transformation by the grating k-vector occurs, except of simple redirection.

Iazikov, Dmitri↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling household-level party composition behavior for multiparty activities: a random parameter nested logit modeling approach

This study presents findings of a household-level party composition model for multiparty activities. It exploits data from a comprehensive Household Travel Survey conducted by Chicago Metropolitan Agency of Planning. The study estimates a random parameter nested logit model to capture households’ unobserved preference heterogeneity and non-proportional substitution patterns in terms of activity party composition for multiparty activities. A wide variety of household demographics, activity attributes and residential neighborhood characteristics are examined in this paper. The magnitude of the impacts of the determinants are tested in this study by analyzing the elasticity of the variables, which suggests that household demographics and attributes of the multiparty activities have significant effects on the household-level activity party composition. Residential neighborhood characteristics, although somewhat less impactful, still play a meaningful role. This model will be implemented within the POLARIS transportation systems simulator to improve the activity generation modeling workflow, and the prediction accuracy of various activity-travel components.

activity party composition↗
NASA NTRS1992

Delamination behavior of quasi-isotropic graphite epoxy laminates subjected to tension and torsion loads

Sixteen and thirty-two ply quasi-isotropic laminates fabricated from AS4/3501-6 were subjected to pure tension, simultaneous tension and torsion, and torsion fatigue. Layups tested were (45 sub n/-45 sub n/O sub n/90 sub n) sub s, with n = 2 or 4. A torsion damage pattern consisting of a localized matrix crack and delaminations was characterized, and the measured torsional stiffnesses were compared with calculated values. It was found that a combination of tension and torsion led to failure at smaller loads than either type of deformation acting alone. Further work is required to determine the exact form of the failure criterion.

Hinkley, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Delamination behavior of quasi-isotropic graphite epoxy laminates subjected to tension and torsion loads

Sixteen and thirty-two ply quasi-isotropic laminates fabricated from AS4/3501-6 were subjected to pure tension, simultaneous tension and torsion, and torsion fatigue. Layups tested were (45 sub n/-45 sub n/0 sub n/90 sub n) sub s, with n = 2 or 4. A torsion damage pattern consisting of a localized matrix crack and delaminations was characterized, and the measured torsional stiffnesses were compared with calculated values. It was found that a combination of tension and torsion led to failure at smaller loads than either type of deformation acting alone. Further work is required to determine the exact form of the failure criterion.

Hinkley, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

High‐Pressure Characterization of Melt‐Castable Biisoxazole Energetics: 3,3′‐Biisoxazole‐5,5′‐bis‐(Methylene) Dinitrate and 3,3′‐Biisoxazole‐4,4′,5,5′‐Tetrakis‐(Methylene Nitrate)

Abstract The high‐pressure behavior of 3,3′‐biisoxazole‐5,5′‐bis‐(methylene) dinitrate (BIDN) and 3,3′‐biisoxazole‐4,4′,5,5′‐tetrakis‐(methylene nitrate) (BITN) have been studied at room temperature to 25 GPa by Raman spectroscopy and powder X‐ray diffraction. The Raman spectra, powder patterns, and calculated unit‐cell volumes at select pressures show qualitative agreement with first‐principles density function theory calculations. Over this pressure range, no evidence of polymorphism was observed. The lack of observed phase changes can be partially attributed to the strengthening of hydrogen bonding observed with pressure increase. These insights point to the potential importance of hydrogen bonding in potential melt‐castable materials.

Bennion, Jonathan C.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Microstructure and deformation behavior of nickel based superalloy Inconel 740 prepared by electron beam smelting

Electron beam smelting (EBS) has been used to fabricate the Inconel 740 superalloy. Microstructures, hardness, and deformation characteristics of the alloy are studied. It is observed that carbides and fine secondary phase nuclei are distributed in the hot worked EBS 740 superalloy. The Ostwald ripening occurs during solution treatment and leads to aggregation of the γ′ precipitates, the size of γ′ precipitates varies from several nanometers to more than one hundred nanometers as a result. The average size of the secondary phase is < 30 nm after aging treatment and the average Vickers hardness is measured to be about 370. The critical shear stress is calculated to be 0.627 GPa with governing mechanism of shearing, causing a stronger strengthening effect than the traditionally prepared Inconel 740 superalloy. The compression behavior indicates that the EBS 740 superalloy shows higher flow stress than 740H at low Zener-Hollomon parameter, which may arise from the undissolved γ′ precipitates and higher activation energy Q. The tensile results show that the fracture surface exhibits a ductile fracture pattern, in contrast to no obvious plastic deformation on the macroscopic fracture. Crack propagation proceeds in a transgranular fracture mode with facets and voids presented on the fracture surface. - Graphical abstract: Electron beam smelting (EBS) has been used to fabricate the Inconel 740 superalloy. Microstructures, hardness, and deformation characteristics of the alloy are studied. The average size of the secondary phase is < 30 nm after aging treatment and the average Vickers hardness is measured to be about 370. The critical shear stress is calculated to be 0.627 GPa with governing mechanism of shearing, causing a stronger strengthening effect than the traditionally prepared Inconel 740 superalloy. The EBS 740 superalloy shows higher flow stress than 740H at low Zener-Hollomon parameter, which may arise from the undissolved γ′ precipitates and higher activation energy Q. The EBS technology shows encouraging potential in preparation of nickel-based superalloys. Morphologies of γ′ precipitates and Vickers hardness as well as hot compression curves for electron beam smelting 740 superalloy. - Highlights: • Electron beam smelting, a novel method, was used to prepare the Inconel 740 superalloy. • The average size of the γ′ precipitates after aging treatment is < 30 nm. • The shearing mode generates a stronger strengthening effect than the traditional 740. • At low Zener-Hollomon parameter, the EBS 740 shows higher flow stress than 740H.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Interferometric imaging of nonlocal electromechanical power transduction in ferroelectric domains

Significance The conversion between electrical and acoustic signals in piezoelectric materials is of fundamental importance for their applications. Because of the much slower speed of sound than speed of light in solids, mesoscopic imaging is imperative for the study of electroacoustic behaviors at microwave frequencies. In this paper, the electromechanical power transduction in lithium niobate domains is spatially resolved by microwave impedance microscopy. Because of the sign reversal of piezoelectric tensor in opposite domains, the interaction between electric fields and elastic waves leads to fringe patterns that are fundamentally different from the acoustic displacement fields. This approach uncovers hidden information in the piezoelectric transduction process and opens a frontier to explore various elastic phenomena in materials and devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Radioastron studies of the nearby, turbulent interstellar plasma with the longest space-ground interferometer baseline

RadioAstron space-ground very long baseline interferometry observations of the pulsar B0950+08, conducted with the 10 m Space Radio Telescope in conjunction with the Arecibo 300 m telescope and the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope at a frequency of 324 MHz were analyzed in order to investigate plasma inhomogeneities in the direction of this nearby pulsar. The observations were conducted at a spacecraft distance of 330,000 km, resulting in a projected baseline of 220,000 km, providing the greatest angular resolution ever achieved at meter wavelengths. Our analysis is based on fundamental behavior of structure and coherence functions. We find that the pulsar shows scintillation on two frequency scales, both much less than the observing frequency, but modulation is less than 100%. We infer that the scattering is weak, but a refracting wedge disperses the scintillation pattern. The refraction angle of this 'cosmic prism' is measured as θ{sub 0} = 1.1-4.4 mas, with the refraction direction being approximately perpendicular to the observer velocity. We show that the observed parameters of scintillation effects indicate that two plasma layers lie along the line of sight to the pulsar, at distances of 4.4-16.4 pc and 26-170 pc, and traveling in different directions relative to the line of sight. Spectra of turbulence for the two layers are found to follow a power law with the indices γ{sub 1} = γ{sub 2} = 3.00 ± 0.08, significantly different from the index expected for a Kolmogorov spectrum of turbulence, γ = 11/3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast ion confinement in the presence of core magnetic islands in Wendelstein 7-X

The effect of magnetic islands in the core region of Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) on fast ion confinement is explored through simulations with the BEAMS3D code. A magnetic configuration where the n/m = 5/5 island chain is shifted to r/a ~ 0.7 allows the exploration of core island physics in W7-X. The control coil system on W7-X allows the tuning of the island size either increasing the island width or decreasing it. A coupling of the BEAMS3D code to the FIELDLINES code provides a versatile mechanism for incorporating magnetic islands and stochastic regions into the BEAMS3D code. Collisionless simulations suggest that the presence of core islands degrade the confinement of passing particles in the region of the island chain. Full neutral beam simulations of W7-X show a similar behavior with confinement decreasing as the island width is increased. Comparisons between a vacuum magnetic field and low beta HINT2 simulation are made showing similar fast ion behavior. Measurements of lost fast ions in W7-X confirm this trend with the control coil suppressed island configuration showing lower losses than that with no control coils applied. Simulations of fast ion wall loads are performed suggesting no drastic change in loss pattern and a slight reduction in losses with minimized islands.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗