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Less is More: Bigger Data from Compressive Measurements

Compressive sensing approaches are beginning to take hold in (scanning) transmission electron microscopy (S/TEM) [1,2,3]. Compressive sensing is a mathematical theory about acquiring signals in a compressed form (measurements) and the probability of recovering the original signal by solving an inverse problem [4]. The inverse problem is underdetermined (more unknowns than measurements), so it is not obvious that recovery is possible. Compression is achieved by taking inner products of the signal with measurement weight vectors. Both Gaussian random weights and Bernoulli (0,1) random weights form a large class of measurement vectors for which recovery is possible. The measurements can also be designed through an optimization process. The key insight for electron microscopists is that compressive sensing can be used to increase acquisition speed and reduce dose. Building on work initially developed for optical cameras, this new paradigm will allow electron microscopists to solve more problems in the engineering and life sciences. We will be collecting orders of magnitude more data than previously possible. The reason that we will have more data is because we will have increased temporal/spatial/spectral sampling rates, and we will be able ability to interrogate larger classes of samples that were previously too beam sensitive to survive the experiment. For example consider an in-situ experiment that takes 1 minute. With traditional sensing, we might collect 5 images per second for a total of 300 images. With compressive sensing, each of those 300 images can be expanded into 10 more images, making the collection rate 50 images per second, and the decompressed data a total of 3000 images [3]. But, what are the implications, in terms of data, for this new methodology? Acquisition of compressed data will require downstream reconstruction to be useful. The reconstructed data will be much larger than traditional data, we will need space to store the reconstructions during analysis, and the computational demands for analysis will be higher. Moreover, there will be time costs associated with reconstruction. Deep learning [5] is an approach to address these problems. Deep learning is a hierarchical approach to find useful (for a particular task) representations of data. Each layer of the hierarchy is intended to represent higher levels of abstraction. For example, a deep model of faces might have sinusoids, edges and gradients in the first layer; eyes, noses, and mouths in the second layer, and faces in the third layer. There has been significant effort recently in deep learning algorithms for tasks beyond image classification such as compressive reconstruction [6] and image segmentation [7]. A drawback of deep learning, however, is that training the model requires large datasets and dedicated computational resources (to reduce training time to a few days). A second issue is that deep learning is not user-friendly and the meaning behind the results is usually not interpretable. We have shown it is possible to reduce the data set size while maintaining model quality [8] and developed interpretable models for image classification [9], but the demands are still significant. The key to addressing these problems is to NOT reconstruct the data. Instead, we should design computational sensors that give answers to specific problems. A simple version of this idea is compressive classification [10], where the goal is to classify signal type from a small number of compressed measurements. Classification is a much simpler problem than reconstruction, so 1) much fewer measurements will be necessary, and 2) these measurements will probably not be useful for reconstruction. Other simple examples of computational sensing include determining object volume or the number of objects present in the field of view [11].

Stevens, Andrew↗

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Overview of Common Mode Outages in Power Systems

This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Probability Applications for Common Mode Events (PACME) Task Force under the Reliability Risk and Probability Applications (RRPA) Subcommittee. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about dealing with common-mode outages in power systems reliability analysis. This effort involves reviewing published literature and presenting state-of-the-art research and practical applications in the area of common-mode outages. Evaluation of available outage statistics show that there is a definite need for collective effort from academia and industry to not only recommended procedures for data collection and monitoring but also to provide appropriate mathematical models to assess such events.

Common mode outages↗

GENESPACE R Package (GENESPACE) v1.0

In short, the GENESPACE pipeline conducts analysis of orthology networks, constrained within syntenic regions. Since analyses are limited to local tests conducted within syntenic blocks, GENESPACE is agnostic to ploidy, duplicated regions, inversions or other whole-genome chromosomal complexities that are common across many evolutionary lineages. This advantage allows for evolutionary tests in polyploids (e.g. switchgrass, manuscript in review), species with ancient, but retained whole-genome duplications (e.g. pecan, manuscript in prep), high levels of tandem array proliferation (e.g. eukalypts, manuscript in review) and many other factors that can confound comparative genomic analyses. The major advances of GENESPACE are three-fold: First, this is the first R package to integrate visualization and analysis of large-scale comparative genomics. R, which offers a high-level environment for graphical and statistical exploration of data, is often speed- and memory-limited and not used for computationally intensive tasks such as comparative genomics. The highly efficient C++ scripts used in GENESPACE (via data.table) permit a much faster and computationally lightweight implementation of comparative genomics than is currently available. Second, the pipeline itself is novel. To the best of our knowledge, no other program accomplishes synteny-constrained and ploidy-agnostic comparative genomics. Since nearly all plants and many animals have a history of whole-genome duplications, this is a major and necessary advance to the field. Third, GENESPACE offers high-level and intuitive multi-genome graphical outputs. The dotplots and 'riparian' plots produced herein, which are produced entirely through original R code, are publication-ready and easily customizable.

Schmutz, Jeremy↗

Task 2 - Limits for High-Frequency Conducted Susceptibility Testing - CS114 (NRC-HQ-60-14-D-0015)

A principal focus of Task 2 under this project was for ORNL to evaluate the basis for susceptibility testing against high-frequency conducted interference and to establish recommendations to resolve concerns about the severity of test limits for the conducted susceptibility (CS) test, CS114, from MIL-STD-461. The primary concern about the test limit has been characterized by the EPRI EMI Working Group in the following terms: Demonstrating compliance with the CS114 test limits recommended in TR-102323 has proven to be problematic, even for components that have been tested to commercial standards and demonstrated proper operation in industrial applications [6]. Specifically, EPRI notes that the CS114 limits approved in regulatory documents are significantly higher than those invoked by the US military and similar commercial standards in the frequency range below 200 kHz. For this task, ORNL evaluated the original approach to establishing the test limit, EPRI technical findings from a review of the limit, and the regulatory basis through which the currently approved limits were accepted. Based on this analysis, strategies have been developed regarding changes to the CS114 limit that can resolve the technical concerns raised by the industry. Guided by the principles that reasonable assurance of safety must not be compromised but excessive conservatism should be reduced, recommendations on a suitable basis for a revised limit have been developed and can be incorporated into the planned Revision 2 of RG 1.180.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SULI Final Report

This project looks at alternative water sources, specifically in the field of desalination and selective ion removal through capacitive deionization (CDI). It project aims to both scale up the desalination capabilities of CDI cells as well as determine the selectivity of CDI for particular ions. My task is to design and build cells that have reproducible performance and characterize the materials for building these cells. The scientific methods I’ve learned through my work in CDI and the data mining and analysis tools I’ve become familiar with through CAES will be important catalysts in my future success in a graduate program. The purpose of this presentation is to give a standard of practice for my current method of building of capacitive deionization cells. Parts 1 and 2 will be discussed in which the electrodes are prepared, and the cell is built.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Scaling Study of Microbially-Enhanced Methane Production From Coal (Mecbm): Optimizing Nutrient Delivery For Maximized Methane Production

Microbially-enhanced coalbed methane (MECBM) recovery is a novel method to stimulate gas production in CBM reservoirs. We first develop suitable nutrient recipes for native coals from sites each in the Illinois Basin and in the San Juan Basin. The optimal concentrations for statistically significant parameters are identified and the methane yields at laboratory scale are obtained (Part I & II). We then demonstrate the importance of replicating truly in-situ conditions for bio- gasification studies by investigating methane productivity in a core holder simulating in-situ conditions. Based on the experimental results, the resulting gas production correlates positively with the permeability of the samples. We examine the deliverability of engineered microbial solutions to promote coal bioconversion in coals and demonstrate that greater than milli-darcy permeability is required under in-situ stress conditions (Part III). This constraint is supplemented by imaging and a fractal-based characterization approach to evaluate changes in the physical properties of coal due to bio-gasification. High resolution SEM imaging is used to observe swelling of the coal matrix with sub-micron wide continuous pores observed to persist even after microbial treatment (IV). We explore the potential of generating, propping-open and sustaining the functionality of hydraulic fractures in coal using different fracturing fluids (Part V). The alteration of the nano-pore structure due to MECBM treatment is examined by using small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) to define the in-situ porosity evolution as a proxy to infer permeability evolution (Part VI). Coupled hydro-mechanical and bio-gasification modeling is applied to determine the effectiveness of nutrient delivery by hydraulic fracturing and its field implementation. Compared with both the unstimulated and hydro-shear-dilated cases of the natural fracture network, hydraulic fracturing demonstrates a significant improvement to enhance nutrient delivery. A preliminary analysis of field-scale methane yield is completed with consideration of the combined influence of permeability evolution, solute transport and microbial growth (Part VII). Developing nutrient solutions for Illinois Basin and San Juan Basin (Task 2): To enhance methane release from coal through bio-gasification, suitable nutrient solutions are needed to stimulate microbial activities toward coal depolymerization and conversion to biogas. Specific for bituminous coal in the Illinois basin, a nutrient recipe that can be used to enhance coal bio- gasification in situ is developed. Based on our previous experience working with Illinois coal and the characteristics of the formation water and the indigenous microbial community, four parameters, Fe powder, methanol, ethanol, and trace minerals are optimized through using a Box-Behnken design. The optimal condition predicted by the models is: Fe-powder at 74 mM, methanol at 97.91 mM, ethanol at 100 mM, and trace minerals at 100%. Under these conditions, the predicted methane yield and content is 1,417.35 ft 3 /ton and 80.7%, respectively. These results are then validated by experimental studies. In addition, each added component is evaluated in terms of its contribution to methane generated. Specifically, the role of coal in the bio-gasification process is studied against two other solid materials. Experimental data from different solid matrices prove that coal is indeed degraded by the studied microbial community.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Evaluation of Technologies for Enhancing Grout for Immobilizing Hanford Supplemental Low-Activity Waste (SLAW)

An expert panel consisting of the document authors was assembled by Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC (WRPS) and tasked with (1) identifying technical and regulatory limitations to treating and disposing of grouted low-activity waste (LAW), and (2) with identifying and evaluating a wide range of technical solutions to these limitations. The analysis included technologies to allow inventory management and/or improve retention of iodine, technetium, and nitrate either in the waste packages, or within the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF), and, technologies to ensure regulated organics are below Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) Land Disposal Restriction (LDR) levels.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Pre-Commercial Scale-Up of a Gas-Fired Absorption Heat Pump

The project sought to advance the maturity of SMTI’s 80 kBTU/hr residential space and water heating GAHP from the engineering prototype stage (TRL-7) to pre-production readiness by addressing manufacturing, balance of system design and installation, cost, reliability, and field application questions. As part of this project, the project team has: (1) Matured the design package for a commercially ready product (2) Demonstrated compliance with relevant ANSI standards (3) Completed manufacturing and assembly process specifications (4) Completed total production cost estimates and capital equipment requirements (5) Initiated component and system level reliability assessments (6) Completed a small field demonstration including measured performance, installation requirements and expected costs, and customer/key stakeholder feedback. (7) Completed a Techno-economic analysis for representative applications and climate zones, including justification for utility incentive programs. (8) Completed a market intelligence report. Scope of Work: A multi-faceted project was completed that included: (a) design for manufacturing tasks for both the sealed system and balance of system, (b) development and trial of key manufacturing processes and techniques, (c) evaluation of component and system level reliability, (d) exploration of make/buy decisions including impact on cost and required capital. Additionally, (e) installation and monitoring of a small number of field test units was completed to demonstrate energy savings and collect customer/installer feedback, and (f) a focused market research task was completed to explore potential barriers and improve market introduction plans. These tasks addressed many of the remaining technical risks regarding long-term reliability, verification of manufacturing cost estimates and identification of cost concerns, identify installation and balance of system design criteria necessary to achieve energy savings and installed cost goals, and identify market barriers and strategies prior to product market introduction.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Wabash CarbonSAFE: Detailed Site Characterization Plan, Task 11.0, Technical Report

Wabash CarbonSAFE established that commercial-scale CO 2 storage in the Potosi Dolomite –Maquoketa Group storage complex associated with the Wabash Valley Resources (WVR) plant site near Terre Haute, IN is highly feasible. The CarbonSAFE project team performed this evaluation through extensive data acquisition and analysis including 2D seismic reflection data, wireline logs, well testing, and core/cuttings from the Wabash #1 stratigraphic test well (now plugged and abandoned). This document summarizes work detailed in separate Wabash CarbonSAFE reports and consolidates the geologic characterization, well testing, and storage complex modeling results for the Mt. Simon Sandstone and Potosi Dolomite, two distinct reservoirs characterized at the Wabash CarbonSAFE project site. The report then presents recommendations for the next steps for site characterization, identifies data gaps for future activities, and provides an overall assessment of site potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

January 2022 Semiannual Saltstone Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) Results

The aqueous waste from Tank 50 (salt solution) is sampled semiannually for transfers to the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF). Salt solution is treated at SPF and disposed of in the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Per request of customer, X-TTR-Z-00025, Revision 0, two SDF waste form (saltstone) samples were prepared in the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) from the Tank 50 Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) sample and Z-Area premix material for the January 2022 semiannual Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) samples. One sample contained a Full Premix which included 10:45:45 (by weight) of cement, slag and fly ash. The second sample contained 60:40 (by weight) of slag and fly ash only referred to as the “Cement-Free grout sample.” Results from this technical report support Task 2: ‘Grout Leaching Analyses’ of the Task Technical Request (TTR) prepared by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC). After at least 28 days cured, a sample of each of the SDF waste forms was collected and shipped to a certified laboratory for analysis using the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP). The January 2022 semiannual saltstone (Full Premix) and the Cement-Free grout samples met the South Carolina (SC) Code of Regulations for Hazardous Waste Management Regulations (HWMR) 61-79.261.24 and 61-79-268.48 requirements for a non-hazardous waste form with respect to Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) metals and Underlying Hazardous Constituents (UHCs), and also met the SPF WAC that was in effect at the time of the tank sampling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Application Results on Early Exascale Hardware

This Exascale Computing Project (ECP) milestone report summarizes the status of 27 of the 31 ECP Applications Development (AD) subprojects at the end of FY21. In November and December of 2021, a comprehensive assessment of AD projects was conducted by the ECP leadership along with external subject matter experts (SMEs). (NNSA application projects are reviewed separately using the ASC milestone process.) The AD review committee—consisting of the AD lead, AD deputy, Level 3 (L3), and at least one external project SME—was tasked with evaluating each project’s progress relative to ECP project goals specified in the FY21 timeline. Key areas of focus were code maturity and performance on pre-exascale systems, an in-depth analysis of final key performance parameter (KPP) verification contracts, and future R&D priorities in the final year of ECP and beyond. As such, this report contains not only an accurate snapshot of each subproject’s current status but also represents a broad account of successes and challenges in porting large scientific applications to DOE’s next-generation high-performance computing architectures – the Frontier and Aurora systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

July 2022 Semiannual Saltstone Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) Results

The aqueous waste from Tank 50 (salt solution) is sampled semiannually for transfers to the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF). Salt solution is treated at SPF and disposed of in the Salstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Per request of customer, X-TTR-Z-00025, Revision 0, two SDF waste form (salstone) samples were prepared in the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) from the Tank 50 Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) sample and Z-Area premix material for the July 2022 Semiannual Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) samples. One sample contained a Full Premix which included 10:45:45 (by weight) of cement, slag and fly ash. The second sample contained 60:40 (by weight) of slag and fly ash only referred to as the "Cement-Free grout sample." Results from this technical report support Task 2: 'Grout Leaching Analyses' of the Task Technical Request (TTR) prepared by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC). After at least 28 days cured, a sample of each of the SDF waste forms was collected and shipped to a certified laboratory for analysis using Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP). The July 2022 semiannual salstone (Full Premix) and the Cement-Free grout samples met the South Carolina (SC) Code of Regulations for Hazardous Waste Management Regulations (HWMR) 61-79.261.24 and 61-79-268.48 requirements for the non-hazardous waste form with respect to Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) metals and Underlying Hazardous Constituents (UHCs), and also met the SPF WAC that was in effect at the time of the tank sampling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

January 2023 Semiannual Saltstone Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) Results

The aqueous waste from Tank 50 (salt solution) is sampled semiannually for transfers to the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF). Salt solution is treated at SPF and disposed of in the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Per request of customer, X-TTR-Z-00027, Revision 0, two SDF waste form (saltstone) samples were prepared in the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) from the Tank 50 Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) sample and Z-area premix material for January 2023 semiannual Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) samples. One sample contained a Full Premix which included 10:45:45 (by weight) of cement, slag, and fly ash. The second sample contained 60:40 (by weight) of slag and fly ash only referred to as the “Cement-Free grout sample.” Results from the technical report support Task 2: ‘Grout Leaching Analyses’ of the Task Technical Request (TTR) prepared by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC). After at least 28 days cured, a sample of each of the SDF waste forms was collected and shipped to a certified laboratory for analysis using the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP). The January 2023 semiannual saltstone (Full Premix) and the Cement-Free grout samples met the South Carolina (SC) Code of Regulations for Hazardous Waste Management Regulations (HWMR) 61-79.261.24 and 61-79.268.48 requirements for a non-hazardous waste form with respect to the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) metals and Underlying Hazardous Constituents (UHCs), and also met the SPF WAC that was in effect at the time of the tank sampling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Results of Long-Term Analyses of the Salt (Macro) Batch 11 Tank 21H Qualification Sample

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) analyzed samples from Tank 21H in support of qualification of Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) Salt Batch 11. This document reports the long-term results of the analyses of the sample of Tank 21H. Analysis of this sample indicates that the material does not display any unusual characteristics or observations, such as visually apparent solids. However, the sample was dark colored. This report satisfies Deliverable 3 of the Technical Task Request (TTR).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Microbial Community Analysis & Functional Evaluation in Soils

The overall objective of this proposal was to develop technologies to alter the composition and function of important members of microbial communities. In particular, the overall objective of the microbial community editing portion of the proposal focuses on developing foundational tools and understanding required to predict, alter and design grass rhizosphere communities impacting DOE missions. Specifically, the project is centered on the Microbial Community Analysis & Functional Evaluation in Soils (m-CAFES) to manipulate microbial consortia associated with plants of interest for the bioenergy sector, under the presumption that bacterial communities can be manipulated to enhance plant health. For tasks of specific interest to us, we are focusing on developing novel Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) based technologies (primarily focusing on Aim 1) and their delivery modalities (notably subaim 1.2) to edit specific bacterial genomes of interest to enhance their functionalities, and programmably ablate specific undesirable members of bacterial communities for plant health. We are focusing on engineering bacteriophages (bacterial viruses, for subaim 1.2) to carry programmable CRISPR-Cas systems (subaim 1.1) to target (ablate) or alter (edit) genomes of interest. This will enable us to carry out microbial perturbations that will impact community composition and function and ultimately plant growth and health, to enable the next phase of the project by deploying them in situ (subaims 1.3 and 1.4).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Radioactivity-in-materials lead for nEXO (Final Scientific Report)

Abstract, introduction, and summary of work completed and products produced by DOE award SC002466. Primary products were six peer-reviewed publications and two PhD theses. This award also supported the operation of an underground HPGe detector and several radioassay measurements: one in a stand alone publication in Phys. Rev. C and the others in an upcoming nEXO radioassay summary paper. The nEXO collaboration aims to demonstrate the Majorana nature of the neutrino by observing the neutrinoless double-beta decay of 136 Xe with a next-generation experiment. The University of Kentucky nEXO group (UKY) operates a world-leading ultra-low-background γ-ray spectrometer as part of the nEXO radioactive background control R&D effort. The nEXO project is a proposed ton-scale neutrinoless double-beta decay experiment. The UKY PI is leading the radioactivity content assessment for all materials required by the nEXO project. As a subset of this task, UKY is also responsible for project-wide management of all low-background γ-ray spectrometry measurements; material assays with these types of instruments, together with ICP-MS, neutron-activation-analysis, and α-spectrometry, are critical to ensuring that the nEXO project can achieve its design sensitivity

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗