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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Meter-Based Assessment of the Time and Locational Benefits of a Large Utility’s DSM Portfolio

As decarbonization goals drive increasing levels of renewable generation, there is a need to understand the time- and location-based savings benefits of demand-side management (DSM) programs. The challenges of the 'duck curve' are driving the utility industry to consider how programs can be optimized to match demand profiles with low carbon generation resources. From an infrastructure standpoint, time- and location-targeted DSM could serve as a ‘non-wires alternative’ (NWA) to defer equipment upgrades. Additional DSM value streams are motivating innovation in savings evaluation, providing more resolved insights beyond the total annual program impact. Methods grounded in the principles of billing analysis, leveraging hourly metering at the distribution grid, can provide new visibility into the spatial and temporal savings achieved through DSM. A large body of work has investigated related topics including interval meter-based savings analysis, the time- varying nature of efficiency measures, and NWA. A less studied topic concerns the impact of DSM on the grid, based on metered consumption. This paper presents an analysis of interval data across more than 25,000 customers and twelve substations, from the Sacramento Municipal Utility District. The results show for different locations on the grid: achieved savings and the impact on grid consumption; hourly savings shapes for DSM program participants and non-participants, and how those shapes vary with season; and the impact of the programs on peak demand. These findings show the current impact of DSM, with implications for future, more intentional targeting as the utility continues to pursue aggressive electrification, efficiency, load flexibility, and reliable NWA.

Granderson, Jessica↗

Simultaneous real-time measurement of composition, flow, attenuation, density, and pipe-wallthickness in multiphase fluids

Apparatus (10) and methods for making simultaneous measurements of composition (water-cut), fluid flow, and sound attenuation in a multiphase fluid flowing (15) through a pipe (12) in real-time, using the same apparatus (10) are described. Additionally, the apparatus (10) provides real-time pipe wall thickness monitoring for observing pipe corrosion or internal deposition. Knowledge of wall thickness is necessary to correct for water-cut (oil-water composition) automatically by adjusting the liquid path length internal to the pipe (spool). The use of short duration frequency chirp excitation signals (24) enables the apparatus to provide information that can be used to extract multiple levels of information from the same measurement in multiphase fluids including the presence of a significant quantity of gas (˜60% gas volume fraction) in different flow regimes. Besides measuring steady flow, this device is useful for measurements during fast changing flows, such as for a rod-pumped well. Measurements up to about 1000 times a second can reliably be made.

Sinha, Dipen N.↗

Real time evolution for ultracompact Hamiltonian eigenstates on quantum hardware

In this work we present a detailed analysis of variational quantum phase estimation (VQPE), a method based on real-time evolution for ground and excited state estimation on near-term hardware. We derive the theoretical ground on which the approach stands, and demonstrate that it provides one of the most compact variational expansions to date for solving strongly correlated Hamiltonians. At the center of VQPE lies a set of equations, with a simple geometrical interpretation, which provides conditions for the time evolution grid in order to decouple eigenstates out of the set of time evolved expansion states, and connects the method to the classical filter diagonalization algorithm. Further, we introduce what we call the unitary formulation of VQPE, in which the number of matrix elements that need to be measured scales linearly with the number of expansion states, and we provide an analysis of the effects of noise which substantially improves previous considerations. The unitary formulation allows for a direct comparison to iterative phase estimation. Our results mark VQPE as both a natural and highly efficient quantum algorithm for ground and excited state calculations of general many-body systems. We demonstrate a hardware implementation of VQPE for the transverse field Ising model. Further, we illustrate its power on a paradigmatic example of strong correlation (Cr2 in the SVP basis set), and show that it is possible to reach chemical accuracy with as few as ~50 timesteps.

Klymko, Katherine↗

Analysis of Residential Time-of-Use Utility Rate Structures and Economic Implications for Thermal Energy Storage

Thermal energy storage (TES) is an increasingly popular tool to level out the daily electrical demand and add stability to the electrical grid as more intermittent renewable energy sources are installed. TES systems can locally decouple high thermal loads from the operation of a heat pump or reduce the electrical energy demand of the heat pump by providing a more favorable temperature gradient. In addition, many policy makers and utility providers have introduced time-of-use (TOU) rate schedules for residential customers to better reflect the price of electricity generation and demand for specific times. TOU rate schedules price grid-provided electricity differently throughout the day depending on the region’s climate, time of year, and electrical production. Large differences between on-peak and off-peak electrical prices may create an economic advantage for a residential customer to install a TES system. In this work, the economic and energy savings are calculated for a modeled 2,400 square foot residential building with water/ice-based TES using a TOU rate structure. The weather data is from Fresno County, CA, ASHRAE climate zone 3B, and a representative residential TOU utility rate structure from Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) was used. The results showed that total energy consumption could be reduced by 14.5% with an 87.5% reduction in on-peak energy usage when the TES is installed. The cost of operating this system for space cooling was reduced by nearly 20% using the sample utility rate plan.

Sultan, Sara↗

Development of Automated Pipeline for Time-Resolved Link-Wise Vehicular Energy Consumption in the Chattanooga, TN Road Network

The Department of Energy (DOE) has shown strong interest in detecting energy inefficiencies in regional road networks, so as to derive energy consumed at a high spatial temporal resolution. We have developed a workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicular energy consumption over each link in a road network of interest. The road network used in the current work is centered around the city of Chattanooga, Tennessee and its bordering regions. Utilizing the most mature road network for the Chattanooga, TN region, vehicle speed & count data from TomTom in conjunction with machine learning methods, we have developed an automated pipeline to estimate energy consumption for every link in the network. The first step in the pipeline is ingesting vehicle probe counts and speed estimates from TomTom API. In the next step, the probe counts, speed profiles and other exogenous data (i.e. road types, weather data, ground-truth volume counts and more) were used as input to a supervised learning algorithm to estimate the number of vehicles throughout the entire region for each road segment. These volume estimates were then mapped to a unified road network that contained additional important information such as percentage change in gradient across a link, number of lanes and link lengths that are features in pre-trained single vehicle energy-consumption models available with the RouteE software developed at NREL. The per vehicle energy consumption on each road link predicted using appropriate RouteE vehicular models were multiplied by the volume estimate for the corresponding link over a given time period to predict energy consumed per link for the time interval of interest. Currently, work is underway to improve both the RouteE per vehicle energy estimate and the volume estimates derived from TomTom probe counts. We have also explored the correlation of the link-wise energy estimates with the features of the pre-trained RouteE machine learning model in order to gain insight into what factors contribute most to the link-wise energy consumption.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

Accurate and Timely Forecasts of Geologic Carbon Storage using Machine Learning Methods

Carbon capture and storage is one strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One approach to storing the captured CO2 is to inject it into deep saline aquifers. However, dynamics of the injected CO2 plume is uncertain and the potential for leakage back to the atmosphere must be assessed. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of CO2 storage via real-time measurements integration becomes very crucial. This study proposes a learning-based, inverse-free prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast CO2 movement and distribution with uncertainty quantification based on limited simulation and observation data. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO2 storage site operators with an effective tool for real-time decision making.

Lu, Dan↗

Graph-Augmented Normalizing Flows for Anomaly Detection of Multiple Time Series

Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time series, however, is a challenging subject, owing to the intricate interdependencies among the constituent series. We hypothesize that anomalies occur in low density regions of a distribution and explore the use of normalizing flows for unsupervised anomaly detection, because of their superior quality in density estimation. Moreover, we propose a novel flow model by imposing a Bayesian network among constituent series. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that models causal relationships; it factorizes the joint probability of the series into the product of easy-to-evaluate conditional probabilities. We call such a graph-augmented normalizing flow approach GANF and propose joint estimation of the DAG with flow parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of GANF for density estimation, anomaly detection, and identification of time series distribution drift.

Dai, Enyan↗

INVESTIGATION OF TURBULENT JETS, SPRAYS, AND SUPERCRITICAL MIXING BY TIME RESOLVED RAINBOW SCHLIEREN DEFLECTOMETRY

As technological advancements have enabled higher efficiency compression ignition (CI) engines (diesel engines) by operating at higher pressures and temperatures, the mechanisms of fuel-air mixing are postulated to change. Thus, there is a greater need for experimental data to develop and verify new phenomena. However, the fast time scales and harsh environments associated with CI engines present many experimental difficulties and requires high quality non-intrusive diagnostics to obtain useful data. The diagnostics itself must be validated prior to its implementation in an engine environment. The purpose of this research is to advance rainbow schlieren deflectometry (RSD) to study turbulent fuel sprays including the effects of supercritical mixing in CI engine environments. This objective is met by developing and applying quantitative RSD, for the first time, to three separate aspects of fuel sprays: 1) turbulent mixing, 2) phase boundaries, and 3) non-ideal gas mixing. First, quantitative RSD is demonstrated for turbulent mixing in a canonical helium jet. Rayleigh scattering data in the literature is used to validate the concentration measurements obtained by RSD. The results also provide explanations for phenomena occurring in the helium jet and provide data not yet present in the literature. Second, RSD is applied to high pressure multi-phase fuel sprays and new methodologies are developed to distinguish the liquid region from the vapor region and to quantify the in-between region on a probabilistic basis. Isolating liquid and vapor regions generally requires two separate diagnostics, e.g., Mie scattering (liquid region) and Rayleigh scattering (vapor region). However, the results of this study demonstrate that RSD can be used as a single diagnostic to measure both liquid and vapor boundaries. Third, the optical-to-thermodynamic relations associated with refrac-tometry are investigated under non-ideal gas mixing conditions to develop a generalized relationship valid for both ideal or non-ideal gas mixing. The last part of this research develops the theoretical tools to understand and experimentally realize supercritical mixing at diesel conditions. Guided by the theoretical analysis, RSD is applied to compare supercritical versus transcritical mixing at CI conditions using a constant pressure test rig. It is found that while fully supercritical mixing ers benefits in diesel engines, i.e, faster mixing times (50% higher velocities), the absence of droplets which cause high levels of particulate emissions, etc., it would be difficult to achieve in practice because of the requirements of fuels with low critical temperature and/or substantial fuel preheating.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as time series data shifts. In this research, a changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window across the labeled data sets. Pending approval, we plan to release the labeled data sets for this research on NREL's DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package. By supplying the training sets and algorithm, we hope to encourage further development in this research space.

data shift↗

An Efficient Time-Domain Model to Simulate Parametric Resonances in a Floating Body Free to Move in Six Degrees of Freedom: Preprint

We present a computationally efficient time-domain model capable of simulating parametric resonances in a floating body in waves. The model assumes all wave forces to be linear, but the inertia and restoring forces acting on the body are expanded to second order in body motions. The simulation speed on a standard computer is approximately 40 times faster than real time. The model is applied to a soft-moored floating axisymmetric body which absorbs energy through heave, but is otherwise free to move in six degrees of freedom. Under certain conditions, we show that the body responds parametrically with large amplitudes not only in surge and pitch, but also in sway, roll, and yaw, provided it is given some small initial displacement in one of these out-of-plane modes. The predictions are confirmed by simulations using state-of-the-art nonlinear Froude-Krylov and computational fluid dynamics models.

parametric resonance↗

Neutrino Hunting: Looking through a UV Lens Scintillation Photon Detection in a Large-Volume Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber, Exposed to a Multi-GeV Charged Particle Beam

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will be a world-class neutrino observatory and nucleon decay detector designed to answer fundamental questions about elementary particles and their role in the universe. The DUNE experiment will consist of a a Near Detector, located at Fermilab, and a Far Detector, approximately 1.5~km underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in South Dakota, located $\sim$1300~km away. The accelerator complex at Fermilab will host an intense beam of neutrinos directed toward the two detectors. My dissertation centers on the implementation of technologies used to detect scintillation photon signals in liquid argon in the context of the DUNE's Far Detector Single-Phase (SP) module design, and features direct contributions to the Photon Detection System (PDS) deployed in the ProtoDUNE-SP Large-Volume Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) prototype. The PDS is needed for non-beam event timing, such as atmospheric neutrinos, proton d ecay, and supernova detection. The PDS provides a prompt signal ($t_{0}$ information) for micro-second event time determination, which improves the TPC's spatial localization along drift direction, enables accurate ionization-signal-attenuation determination, and even provides calorimetry. My dissertation will discuss an overview of the DUNE and ProtoDUNE-SP experiment and how we detect neutrinos in LAr, via charge and scintillation light. It will discuss my core experimental and analysis work, in regards to the Photon Detection System; including my contributions in establishing procedures for the commissioning and integration for the Photon Detector System that will be valuable during the construction, installation, commissioning, and operations of the DUNE Far Detector. In addition, it will comprehensively discuss the capability of three different photon detection technologies, and their characteristics and responses to muon and electron beam particles over a range of beam momenta , from 0.3~GeV/$c$ - 7~GeV/$c$. Further, the overall progress detailed in this thesis will help pave the way toward understanding the physical properties of these detectors, which will contribute to the success of the sensitivity measurements required for determining the neutrino mass hierarchy and $\delta_{CP}$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Time-gated fast neutron transmission radiography system and method

The present disclosure relates to a time-gated fast neutron transmission radiography system and method. The system makes use of a pulsed neutron source for producing neutrons in a plurality of directions, with at least a subplurality of the neutrons being directed at an object to be imaged. The system also includes a neutron detector system configured to time-gate the detection of neutrons emitted from the pulsed neutron source to within a time-gated window.

Schmidt, Andrea↗

The Cost Drivers and The Most Time-Consuming Activities of the MARVEL Microreactor Project

This study aims to identify what drives cost and what project activities are the most time consuming within a microreactor project such as MARVEL. Identifying these cost and time drivers is necessary since nuclear projects are vulnerable to schedule delays and cost increases. This work also paves the way for possible cost reductions, decreasing the MARVEL levelized cost of energy and reducing the microreactors' construction time which in turn leads to a lower cost of interest during construction

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Time-drift Aware RF Optimization with Machine Learning Techniques

The Fermilab Linac delivers 400 MeV H- beam to the rest of the accelerator chain. Providing stable intensity, energy, and emittance is key since it directly affects downstream machines. To operate high current beam, accelerators must minimize uncontrolled particle loss; this can be accomplished by minimizing beam longitudinal emittance via RF parameter optimization. However, RF tuning is required daily since the resonance frequency of the accelerating cavities is affected by ambient temperature and humidity variations and thus drifts with time. In addition, the energy and phase space distribution of particles emerging from the ion source are subject to fluctuations. Such drift is not unique to Fermilab, but rather affects most laboratories. We are exploring machine learning (ML) algorithms for automated RF tuning for 2 objectives: optimization of Linac output energy and phase oscillation correction, with an emphasis on time-drift aware modeling that can account for conditions changing over time.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

FPGA Architectures for Distributed ML Systems for Real-time Beam Loss De-blending

The Accelerator Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS) project’s goal is to create a Artificial Intelligence (AI) system for real-time beam loss de-blending within the accelerator enclosure, which houses two accelerators: the Main Injector (MI) and the Recycler Ring (RR). In periods of joint operation, when both machines contain high intensity beam, radioactive beam losses from MI and RR overlap on the enclosure’s beam loss monitoring Beam Loss Monitor (BLM) system, making it difficult to attribute those losses to a single machine. Incorrect diagnoses result in unnecessary downtime that incurs both financialand experimental cost. The ML system will automatically disentangle each machine’s contributions to those measured losses, while not disrupting the existing operations-critical functions of the BLM system. This paper will focus on the evolution of the architectures, which provided the high-frequency, low-latency collection of synchronized data streams to make real-time inferences. The ML models, used for learning both local and global machine signatures and producing high quality inferences based on raw BLM loss measurements, will only be discussed at a high-level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Closed Loop Time and the Topology of Totality

The author suggests a cosmology based on just two principles: (1) no boundaries to spacetime and (2) no physical infinities. On the hypothesis that these are exactly true, and that charge conjugation, parity and time reversal invariance (CPT) is a perfect symmetry at the big bang, answers are provided to many puzzles, such as what happened to the antimatter, what happened before the big bang, and what will happen in the far future? Consequences are that our universe U is closed (with positive curvature) and so the total energy, angular momentum and charge of the universe must be zero. At the big bang a universe-antiuniverse pair, UU¯ is created as a virtual fluctuation in what we may call Outer SpaceTime, along with a vast number of other disconnected universes—the multiverse. The CPT-conjugate U¯ has identical physics (and matter content) to U; other UU¯ pairs in the multiverse have different physics parameters. A consequence is that time at the fundamental particle level à la Feynman must be distinct from thermodynamic time. The UU¯ forms a closed loop.

Albrow, Michael G.↗

Frequency-domain vs time-domain SP{sub N} equations to simulate neutron noise

Inside the reactor core mechanical vibrations of fuel assemblies can produce high fluctuations around a steady-state configuration, known as neutron noise. This effect can cause the triggering of power reduction measures. Classically, diffusion theory has been used to simulate this behavior. However, this equation has some limitations if the materials of the reactor have strong variations. In this work, we use the diffusive time-dependent simplified spherical harmonics equations that improve the previous results without the necessity of using high computational requirements. In particular, two types of analyses with these equations (SP{sub 3}) are made: a frequency-domain and a time-domain. A numerical neutron noise benchmark tests the methodology and compare both formulations. First, numerical results show a good agreement between the amplitudes and phases of the SP3 equations computed with the frequency-domain and time-domain. Therefore, as the frequency-domain computation only requires to solve a linear system, it is a recommendable option for neutron noise computations. Second, one can conclude that for this type of nuclear systems, where the assemblies are not homogenized, the SP{sub 3} approximation results improve considerably the accuracy of the diffusion theory.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multiphysics Time-Integration for Turbulent Combustion at the Exascale

Turbulent reacting flow systems are often modeled with coupled time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). Solving such equations can easily tax the world's largest supercomputers. One pragmatic strategy for attacking such problems is to split the PDEs into components that can more easily be solved in isolation. This generic operator-splitting strategy leads to a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that need to be solved as part of an "outer-loop" time-stepping approach. In many combustion applications, the ODEs to be solved can be very stiff, exhibiting timescales that span many orders of magnitude. The SUNDIALS library provides a plethora of robust time integration algorithms for solving these ODEs on exascale-capable computing hardware, yet for many complex applications (such multicomponent fuels or emissions predictions), the chemical models remain too complex to solve using reasonable resources. The Quasi-Steady State Approximation (QSSA) can be an effective tool for reducing the size and stiffness of the simulations. In this talk, I will discuss the use of the SUDIALS library of ODE solvers together with automatic code generation tools to solve complex turbulent reacting flow problems using QSSA models.

chemistry↗