SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,495 records · Page 83

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Verification of Upcoming MCNP Features For Estimating Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Fixed Source Simulations [Abstract]

Predictive simulation codes, like the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport code, are used throughout the nuclear community. These simulations are based on nuclear data. Maximizing the accuracy and precision of nuclear data maximizes the accuracy and precision of the overall simulation. This is imperative to applications that rely on simulations. For example, improving nuclear data for special nuclear material improves simulation accuracy in stockpile stewardship applications, which results in larger safety margins and decreased operational costs. The improvement and validation of nuclear data is completed through integral benchmark experiments. Past benchmarks have primarily been limited to focus on the effective multiplication factor ($\kappa$ eff ); broadening the purview of benchmarks beyond $\kappa$ eff -dependent nuclear data addresses nuclear data deficiencies. Different response types depend on different areas of nuclear data. This dependence is quantified as nuclear data sensitivity: the change in response due to perturbation of a contributing parameter. The larger the nuclear data sensitivity of a response, the more the experiment is influenced by the uncertainties of the nuclear data. The optimization of nuclear data sensitivities in future benchmarks would result in more detailed validation of lesser studied areas of nuclear data. Currently, direct sensitivity capabilities are not easily found for all experiment types and parameters. An MCNP tool to directly estimate the cross section sensitivities of tallied values is under development. Additionally, updates have been made to the perturbation feature of MCNP, which can be used in a less direct approach to estimating sensitivities. This work verifies these features to estimate nuclear data sensitivities in fixed source simulations of a 4.5-kg sphere of alpha- phase weapons-grade plutonium surrounded by differing amounts of copper and polyethylene. Integrated estimates made using MCNP’s tools were found to statistically agree with integrated estimates made from manual perturbation of nuclear data proving the validity of the MCNP tools.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Usability Evaluation Technical Report: A Usability Evaluation of the Communication Tool Prototype Prepared in Adobe XD for High Density Vertiplex (HDV) Team

Purpose: As cities get more crowded, the roadway infrastructure cannot keep up with the travel demands. Aviation can be a solution. Organizations supporting NASA’s Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept are conducting studies on feasible concepts of operations for the new air traffic management system required to implement UAM. NASA’s High Density Vertiplex (HDV) team conducts studies using both live flights and simulations. Significance: The goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a communication tool developed for this team to enhance team situation awareness. Specifically, the study aims to determine if the communication tool is effective in allowing NASA-Langley and NASA-Ames team members playing different roles to understand what others are doing so that completed steps can be communicated to the whole team. Methods: This study asks participants to conduct four distinct scenarios using an Adobe XD prototype. Participants included five members of the target audience, who each received up to 15 minutes of training on how to use the Adobe XD prototype. The participants were NASA-Ames or NASA-Langley researchers, developers or tech leads who had 0 to 15 years of experience. Their ages ranged from 20 to 40 years old, and they were of both genders. After training, each participant was asked to do 4 tasks of varying difficulty, using the prototype testbed. After each task they reported on task difficulty and after all tasks were completed they were asked to fill out the System Usability Survey (SUS). Performance will be assessed through task completion time and accuracy rating. Results: User perception was evaluated by the SUS which showed a mean score over the six participants of 84. All the participants were above the acceptable range which was 70 and nobody was in the marginal usability zone between 50 and 70. In addition, most of the participants did well in terms of time on task, success rate and task difficulty on all the tasks except for Task 3. Participants had two minutes to do the task correctly to succeed at the task, otherwise it was marked as a failure. The geomean for Task 1 for completion time was 22.20; Task 2 was 58.28; Task 3 was 84.68 and Task 4 was 19.61. In Task 3, three out of six people failed this task but all five scored this with an average score 4.2 out of 5 for self-rating on task difficulty.

human factors↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining Performance and Usability of Situation Awareness Communication Tool for NASA's High Density Vertiplex (HDV) Team

human factors↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Impacts of Rotational Mixing on the Precipitation Simulated by a Convection Permitting Model

With increased availability of computational resources, regional and global scale convection-permitting model (CPM, Δx ~ 1–10 km) simulations are becoming more common. CPMs have improved accuracy in their representation of deep convection and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) compared to coarser resolution models. However, CPMs still exhibit convective cloud and precipitation biases relative to observations, notably a lesser frequency of light precipitation rates and greater frequency of heavy precipitation rates. In this work we hypothesize that these CPM biases are related to under-resolved mixing between convective updrafts and their surrounding environment. To test this hypothesis, we introduce a parameterization to the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) that adds a small angular rotation of the grid-scale flow about the axis perpendicular to the plane of convective drafts. This rotated flow is then allowed to alter advection of moisture and hydrometeors. The effects of such mixing on precipitation characteristics are evaluated in month-long 4-km grid spacing simulations over the Amazon. The enhanced mixing transports moisture and condensate from convective cores to other areas including downdrafts. This increases the frequency of low-precipitable water and light precipitation. It also decreases the frequency of intense precipitation from isolated deep convection and MCSs, increases cloud top temperatures, reduces radar echo-top heights, and increases overall precipitation by altering the relationship of precipitation with precipitable water, in better agreement with observations. The results suggest when optimized using multiple observations, such an approach may provide a path toward more accurate representation of convection and precipitation statistics in convection-permitting simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Project Management Using Modern Guidance, Navigation and Control Theory

Implementing guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) theory principles and applying them to the human element of project management and control is not a new concept. As both the literature on the subject and the real-world applications are neither readily available nor comprehensive with regard to how such principles might be applied, this paper has been written to educate the project manager on the "laws of physics" of his or her project (not to teach a GN&C engineer how to become a project manager) and to provide an intuitive, mathematical explanation as to the control and behavior of projects. This paper will also address how the fundamental principles of modern GN&C were applied to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) space suit project, ensuring the project was managed within cost, schedule, and budget. A project that is akin to a physical system can be modeled and managed using the same over arching principles of GN&C that would be used if that project were a complex vehicle, a complex system(s), or complex software with time-varying processes (at times nonlinear) containing multiple data inputs of varying accuracy and a range of operating points. The classic GN&C theory approach could thus be applied to small, well-defined projects; yet when working with larger, multiyear projects necessitating multiple organizational structures, numerous external influences, and a multitude of diverse resources, modern GN&C principles are required to model and manage the project. The fundamental principles of a GN&C system incorporate these basic concepts: State, Behavior, Feedback Control, Navigation, Guidance and Planning Logic systems. The State of a system defines the aspects of the system that can change over time; e.g., position, velocity, acceleration, coordinate-based attitude, and temperature, etc. The Behavior of the system focuses more on what changes are possible within the system; this is denoted in the state of the system. The behavior of a system, as captured in the system modeling, when properly done will aid in accurately predicting future system performance. The Feedback Control system understands the state and behavior of the system and uses feedback to adjust control inputs into the system. The feedback, which is the right arm of the Control system, allows change to be affected in the overall system; it therefore is important to not only correctly identify the system feedback inputs, but also the system response to the feedback inputs. The Navigation system takes multiple data inputs and based on a priori knowledge of the inputs, develops a statistically based weighting of the inputs and measurements to determine the system's state. Guidance and Planning Logic of the system, complete with an understanding of where the system is (provided by the Navigation system), will in turn determine where the system needs to be and how to get it there. With any system/project, it is critical that the objective of the system/project be clearly defined -- not only to plan but to measure performance and to aid in guiding the system or the project. The system principles discussed above, which can be and have been applied to the current CxP space suit development project, can also be mapped to real-world constituents, thus allowing project managers to apply systems theories that are well defined in engineering and mathematics to a discipline (i.e., Project Management) that historically has been based in personal experience and intuition. This mapping of GN&C theory to Project Management will, in turn, permit a direct, methodical approach to Project Management, planning and control providing a tool to help predict (and guide) performance and an understanding of the project constraints, how the project can be controlled, and the impacts to external influences and inputs. This approach, to a project manager, flows down to the three bottom-line variables of cost, schedule, and scope ando the needed control of these three variables to successfully perform and complete a project.

Hill, Terry R.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cognitive Performance in ISS Astronauts on 6-Month Low Earth Orbit Missions

Introduction: Current and future astronauts will endure prolonged exposure to spaceflight hazards and environmental stressors that could compromise cognitive functioning, yet cognitive performance in current missions to the International Space Station remains critically under-characterized. We systematically assessed cognitive performance across 10 cognitive domains in astronauts on 6-month missions to the ISS. Methods: Twenty-five professional astronauts were administered the Cognition Battery as part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program Standard Measures Cross-Cutting Project. Cognitive performance data were collected at five mission phases: pre-flight, early flight, late flight, early post-flight, and late post-flight. We calculated speed and accuracy scores, corrected for practice effects, and derived z-scores to represent deviations in cognitive performance across mission phases from the sample’s mean baseline (i.e., pre-flight) performance. Linear mixed models with random subject intercepts and pairwise comparisons examined the relationships between mission phase and cognitive performance. Results: Cognitive performance was generally stable over time with some differences observed across mission phases for specific subtests. There was slowed performance observed in early flight on tasks of processing speed, visual working memory, and sustained attention. We observed a decrease in risk-taking propensity during late flight and post-flight mission phases. Beyond examining group differences, we inspected scores that represented a significant shift from the sample’s mean baseline score, revealing that 11.8% of all flight and post-flight scores were at or below 1.5 standard deviations below the sample’s baseline mean. Finally, exploratory analyses yielded no clear pattern of associations between cognitive performance and either sleep or ratings of alertness. Conclusions: There was no evidence for a systematic decline in cognitive performance for astronauts on a 6-month missions to the ISS. Some differences were observed for specific subtests at specific mission phases, suggesting that processing speed, visual working memory, sustained attention, and risk-taking propensity may be the cognitive domains most susceptible to change in Low Earth Orbit for high performing, professional astronauts. We provide descriptive statistics of pre-flight cognitive performance from 25 astronauts, the largest published preliminary normative database of its kind to date, to help identify significant performance decrements in future samples.

Data curation↗

DOE OSTI2022

In situ feature analysis for large-scale multiphase flow simulations

The study of multiphase flow is essential for designing chemical reactors such as fluidized bed reactors (FBR), as a detailed understanding of hydrodynamics is critical for optimizing reactor performance and stability. An FBR allows scientists to conduct different types of chemical reactions involving multiphase materials, especially interaction between gas and solids. During such complex chemical processes, the formation of void regions in the reactor, generally termed as bubbles, is an important phenomenon. The study of these bubbles has a deep implication in predicting the reactor’s overall efficiency. But physical experiments needed to understand bubble dynamics are costly and non-trivial due to the technical difficulties involved and harsh working conditions of the reactors. Therefore, to study such chemical processes and bubble dynamics, a state-of-the-art computational simulation MFIX-Exa is being developed. Despite the proven accuracy of MFIX-Exa in modeling bubbling phenomena, the large-scale output data prohibits the use of traditional post hoc analysis capabilities in both storage and I/O time. Herein, to address these issues and allow the application scientists to explore the bubble dynamics in an efficient and timely manner, we have developed an end-to-end analytics pipeline that enables in situ detection of bubbles, followed by a flexible post hoc visual exploration methodology of bubble dynamics. The proposed method enables interactive analysis of bubbles, along with quantification of several bubble characteristics, enabling experts to understand the bubble interactions in detail. Positive feedback from the experts has indicated the efficacy of the proposed approach for exploring bubble dynamics in very-large-scale multiphase flow simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Substorm Cycle as Reproduced by Global MHD Models

Recently, Gordeev et al. (2015) suggested a method to test global MHD models against statistical empirical data. They showed that four community-available global MHD models supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) produce a reasonable agreement with reality for those key parameters (the magnetospheric size, magnetic field, and pressure) that are directly related to the large-scale equilibria in the outer magnetosphere. Based on the same set of simulation runs, here we investigate how the models reproduce the global loading-unloading cycle. We found that in terms of global magnetic flux transport, three examined CCMC models display systematically different response to idealized2 h north then 2 h south interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz variation. The LFM model shows a depressed return convection and high loading rate during the growth phase as well as enhanced return convection and high unloading rate during the expansion phase, with the amount of loaded unloaded magnetotail flux and the growth phase duration being the closest to their observed empirical values during isolated substorms. Two other models exhibit drastically different behavior. In the BATS-R-US model the plasma sheet convection shows a smooth transition to the steady convection regime after the IMF southward turning. In the Open GGCM a weak plasma sheet convection has comparable intensities during both the growth phase and the following slow unloading phase. We also demonstrate potential technical problem in the publicly available simulations which is related to post processing interpolation and could affect the accuracy of magnetic field tracing and of other related procedures.

Gordeev, E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved $^{95}\mathrm{Mo}$ neutron resonance parameters and astrophysical reaction rates

We report improved 95 Mo neutron resonance parameters and reaction rates are important for nuclear astrophysics, testing nuclear models, and nuclear criticality safety. However, despite many previous neutron-capture and total cross-section measurements on this nuclide, there still is much room for improvement as well as several discrepancies. For example, there are very few firm resonance spin and parity assignments; average resonance parameters are available only for each parity, the currently recommended astrophysical reaction rate results in disagreements between stellar models and meteoric isotopic anomalies, and there are substantial disagreements in the neutron-capture cross section at low energies important for nuclear criticality safety. To obtain an improved set of neutron resonance parameters and astrophysical reaction rates for 95 Mo. High-resolution neutron-capture and transmission data were measured at the Oak Ridge Electron Linear Accelerator (ORELA) using highly isotopically enriched 95 Mo samples. The neutron-capture apparatus, data reduction, and analysis were improved so that information contained in the γ-ray cascade following neutron capture were used to assign resonance J π values. Following this, simultaneous analysis of the new neutron-capture and transmission data was used to obtain resonance energies, gamma widths, and neutron widths and their uncertainties to a maximum energy of 10 keV. Accurate neutron-capture cross sections also were obtained for the unresolved resonance region to a maximum energy of 500 keV and, together with the new resonance parameters, used to calculate the astrophysical reaction rates in the temperature range from 5 to 30 keV. A vastly improved set of 95Mo neutron resonance parameters and an astrophysical reaction rate accurate to about 3% were obtained. Firm J π assignments were determined for 261 of the 314 observed resonances. This is a very large improvement over the previously published 32 firm J π assignments for 108 resonances. Also, the number of resonances having both firm J π assignments and Γ γ values was increased by almost a factor of 24—from 11 to 261. Neutron- and total-radiation-width distributions and average resonance spacings, average total radiation widths, and neutron strength functions were obtained for the six different s- and p-wave possibilities. Parameters for the lowest s-wave resonance, which is most important for criticality benchmarks, were obtained with high accuracy. Simple modification of the neutron-capture apparatus and expansion and improvement of data analysis techniques led to a large increase in firm J π assignments for 95 Mo neutron resonances. The resulting astrophysical reaction rate is 20%–30% larger than the currently recommended rate at s-process temperatures, which should lead to better agreement between stellar models and meteoric isotopic anomalies. The neutron-capture cross section at low energies is substantially larger than recommended in the latest evaluation, which is problematical for criticality benchmarks. The average resonance spacing as a function of spin and parity is significantly different from current models. The total-radiation-width distributions are significantly broader than predicted by theory and show significant departures from the expected Gaussian shapes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying COVID-19 cases and extracting patient reported symptoms from Reddit using natural language processing

We used social media data from “covid19positive” subreddit, from 03/2020 to 03/2022 to identify COVID-19 cases and extract their reported symptoms automatically using natural language processing (NLP). We trained a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers classification model with chunking to identify COVID-19 cases; also, we developed a novel QuadArm model, which incorporates Question-answering, dual-corpus expansion, Adaptive rotation clustering, and mapping, to extract symptoms. Our classification model achieved a 91.2% accuracy for the early period (03/2020-05/2020) and was applied to the Delta (07/2021–09/2021) and Omicron (12/2021–03/2022) periods for case identification. We identified 310, 8794, and 12,094 COVID-positive authors in the three periods, respectively. The top five common symptoms extracted in the early period were coughing (57%), fever (55%), loss of sense of smell (41%), headache (40%), and sore throat (40%). During the Delta period, these symptoms remained as the top five symptoms with percent authors reporting symptoms reduced to half or fewer than the early period. During the Omicron period, loss of sense of smell was reported less while sore throat was reported more. Our study demonstrated that NLP can be used to identify COVID-19 cases accurately and extracted symptoms efficiently.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intrinsic and extinction colour components in SNe Ia and the determination of R V

Context.The colour fluctuations of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) include intrinsic and extrinsic components, which both contribute to the observed variability. Previous works proposed a statistical separation of these two contributions, but the individual intrinsic colour contributions of each SN Ia were not extracted. In addition, a large uncertainty remains on the value of the parameterR V , which characterises the dust extinction formula. Aims.Leveraging the known parameterisation of the extinction formula for dust in our Galaxy, and applying it to the host galaxy of SNe Ia, we propose a new method of separation –valid for each SN– using the correlations between colour fluctuations. This also allows us to derive a well-constrained value of the extinction parameterR V with different, possibly smaller systematic errors. We also define a three-dimensional space of intrinsic colour fluctuations. Methods.The key ingredients in this attempt at separating the intrinsic and extinction colour components for each SN –and subsequently measuringR V – are the assumption of a linearized dependence of magnitude on the extinction component of colour, a one-dimensional extra-intrinsic colour space (in addition to CaII H&Kλ3945 and Si IIλ4131 contributions) over four independent colours, and the absence of correlation between the intrinsic and extrinsic variabilities. Results.We show that a consistent solution is found under the previous assumptions, but the observed systematic trends point to a (small) inadequacy of the extinction formula. Once corrected, all systematic extinction effects can be cancelled by choosing a single scaling of the extinction colour component as well as an appropriate value ofR V = 2.181 ± 0.117. The observed colours are described within an accuracy of 0.025 mag. The resulting magnitude variability is 0.13 over allUBVRIbandpasses, and this fluctuation is shown to be independent of the bandpass to within 0.02 mag.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Survey of Surveys: I. The largest compilation of radial velocities for the Galaxy

In the present-day panorama of large spectroscopic surveys, the amount, diversity, and complexity of the available data continuously increase. The overarching goal of studying the formation and evolution of our Galaxy is hampered by the heterogeneity of instruments, selection functions, analysis methods, and measured quantities. Here, we present a comprehensive catalogue, the Survey of Surveys (SoS), built by homogeneously merging the radial velocity (RV) determinations of the largest ground-based spectroscopic surveys to date, such as APOGEE, GALAH, Gaia-ESO, RAVE, and LAMOST, using Gaia as a reference. This pilot study serves to prove the concept and to test the methodology that we plan to apply in the future to the stellar parameters and abundance ratios as well. We have devised a multi-staged procedure that includes: (i) the cross match between Gaia and the spectroscopic surveys using the official Gaia cross-match algorithm, (ii) the normalisation of uncertainties using repeated measurements or the three-cornered hat method, (iii) the cross calibration of the RVs as a function of the main parameters on which depend (magnitude, effective temperature, surface gravity, metallicity, and signal-to-noise ratio) to remove trends and zero point offsets, and (iv) the comparison with external high-resolution samples, such as the Gaia RV standards and the Geneva-Copenhagen survey, to validate the homogenisation procedure and to calibrate the RV zero-point of the SoS catalogue. We provide the largest homogenised RV catalogue to date, containing almost 11 million stars, of which about half come exclusively from Gaia and half in combination with the ground-based surveys. We estimate the accuracy of the RV zero-point to be about 0.16–0.31 km s –1 and the RV precision to be in the range 0.05–1.50 km s –1 depending on the type of star and on its survey provenance. We validate the SoS RVs with open clusters from a high resolution homogeneous samples and provide the systemic velocity of 55 individual open clusters. Additionally, we provide median RVs for 532 clusters recently discovered by Gaia data. The SoS is publicly available and ready to be applied to various research projects, such as the study of star clusters, Galactic archaeology, stellar streams, or the characterisation of planet-hosting stars, to name a few. We also plan to include survey updates and more data sources in future versions of the SoS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active learning emulators for nuclear two-body scattering in momentum space

In this work we extend the active learning emulators for two-body scattering in coordinate space with error estimation, recently developed by Maldonado et al. [Phys. Rev. C 112, 024002], to coupled-channel scattering in momentum space. Our full-order model (FOM) solver is based on the Lippmann-Schwinger integral equation for the scattering t-matrix as opposed to the radial Schrödinger equation. We use (Petrov-)Galerkin projections and high-fidelity calculations at a few snapshots across the parameter space of the interaction to construct efficient reduced-order models (ROMs), trained by a greedy algorithm for locally optimal snapshot selection. Both the FOM solver and the corresponding ROMs are implemented efficiently in Python using Google's JAX library. We present results for emulating scattering phase shifts in coupled and uncoupled channels and cross sections, and assess the accuracy of the developed ROMs and their computational speedup factors. We also develop emulator error estimation for both the t-matrix and the total cross section. The software framework for reproducing and extending our results is publicly available. Together with our recent advances in developing active-learning emulators for three-body scattering, these emulator frameworks set the stage for full Bayesian calibrations of chiral nuclear interactions and optical models against scattering data with quantified emulator errors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Visualization techniques to aid in the analysis of multi-spectral astrophysical data sets

The goal of this project was to support the scientific analysis of multi-spectral astrophysical data by means of scientific visualization. Scientific visualization offers its greatest value if it is not used as a method separate or alternative to other data analysis methods but rather in addition to these methods. Together with quantitative analysis of data, such as offered by statistical analysis, image or signal processing, visualization attempts to explore all information inherent in astrophysical data in the most effective way. Data visualization is one aspect of data analysis. Our taxonomy as developed in Section 2 includes identification and access to existing information, preprocessing and quantitative analysis of data, visual representation and the user interface as major components to the software environment of astrophysical data analysis. In pursuing our goal to provide methods and tools for scientific visualization of multi-spectral astrophysical data, we therefore looked at scientific data analysis as one whole process, adding visualization tools to an already existing environment and integrating the various components that define a scientific data analysis environment. As long as the software development process of each component is separate from all other components, users of data analysis software are constantly interrupted in their scientific work in order to convert from one data format to another, or to move from one storage medium to another, or to switch from one user interface to another. We also took an in-depth look at scientific visualization and its underlying concepts, current visualization systems, their contributions, and their shortcomings. The role of data visualization is to stimulate mental processes different from quantitative data analysis, such as the perception of spatial relationships or the discovery of patterns or anomalies while browsing through large data sets. Visualization often leads to an intuitive understanding of the meaning of data values and their relationships by sacrificing accuracy in interpreting the data values. In order to be accurate in the interpretation, data values need to be measured, computed on, and compared to theoretical or empirical models (quantitative analysis). If visualization software hampers quantitative analysis (which happens with some commercial visualization products), its use is greatly diminished for astrophysical data analysis. The software system STAR (Scientific Toolkit for Astrophysical Research) was developed as a prototype during the course of the project to better understand the pragmatic concerns raised in the project. STAR led to a better understanding on the importance of collaboration between astrophysicists and computer scientists.

Brugel, Edward W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Visualization techniques to aid in the analysis of multispectral astrophysical data sets

The goal of this project was to support the scientific analysis of multi-spectral astrophysical data by means of scientific visualization. Scientific visualization offers its greatest value if it is not used as a method separate or alternative to other data analysis methods but rather in addition to these methods. Together with quantitative analysis of data, such as offered by statistical analysis, image or signal processing, visualization attempts to explore all information inherent in astrophysical data in the most effective way. Data visualization is one aspect of data analysis. Our taxonomy as developed in Section 2 includes identification and access to existing information, preprocessing and quantitative analysis of data, visual representation and the user interface as major components to the software environment of astrophysical data analysis. In pursuing our goal to provide methods and tools for scientific visualization of multi-spectral astrophysical data, we therefore looked at scientific data analysis as one whole process, adding visualization tools to an already existing environment and integrating the various components that define a scientific data analysis environment. As long as the software development process of each component is separate from all other components, users of data analysis software are constantly interrupted in their scientific work in order to convert from one data format to another, or to move from one storage medium to another, or to switch from one user interface to another. We also took an in-depth look at scientific visualization and its underlying concepts, current visualization systems, their contributions and their shortcomings. The role of data visualization is to stimulate mental processes different from quantitative data analysis, such as the perception of spatial relationships or the discovery of patterns or anomalies while browsing through large data sets. Visualization often leads to an intuitive understanding of the meaning of data values and their relationships by sacrificing accuracy in interpreting the data values. In order to be accurate in the interpretation, data values need to be measured, computed on, and compared to theoretical or empirical models (quantitative analysis). If visualization software hampers quantitative analysis (which happens with some commercial visualization products), its use is greatly diminished for astrophysical data analysis. The software system STAR (Scientific Toolkit for Astrophysical Research) was developed as a prototype during the course of the project to better understand the pragmatic concerns raised in the project. STAR led to a better understanding on the importance of collaboration between astrophysicists and computer scientists. Twenty-one examples of the use of visualization for astrophysical data are included with this report. Sixteen publications related to efforts performed during or initiated through work on this project are listed at the end of this report.

Brugel, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of unsupervised deep learning to image segmentation and in-situ contact angle measurements in a CO 2 -water-rock system

Rock surface wettability is a critical property that regulates multiphase flows in porous media, which can be quantified using the surface contact angle (CA). X-ray micro-computed tomography (μCT) provides an effective approach to in-situ measurements of surface CAs. However, the CA measurement accuracy depends significantly on the quality of CT image segmentation, which is the clustering of CT pixels into separate phases. Inspired by this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based CA measurement workflow. Motivated by the recent tremendous progress in unsupervised learning techniques and aiming to avoid expensive manual data annotations, an unsupervised DL pipeline for CT image segmentation was proposed and implemented, which includes unsupervised model training and post-processing. The unsupervised model training was driven by a novel loss function constrained with feature similarity and spatial continuity and implemented by iterative forward and backward paths; the former clustered the pixel-wise feature vectors extracted by convolution neural networks, whereas the latter updated the parameters using gradient descent. An over-segmentation strategy was adopted for model training. The post-processing steps based on agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) were implemented to further merge the over-segmented model output to the desired cluster number, which is intended to improve the efficiency of image segmentation. The developed unsupervised DL pipeline was compared with other commonly-used image segmentation methods using pixel-wise and physics-based evaluation metrics on a synthetic raw-image dataset, which had a known ground truth. The unsupervised DL pipeline showed the best performance. Next, the segmented images were input to an automatic CA measurement tool, and the results were validated by comparisons with manual measurements. The CA values from the manual and automatic measurements showed similar distributions and statistical properties. The automatic measurement demonstrated a wider spectrum because of the much larger number of measurement data points. The primary novelty of the unsupervised DL pipeline developed in this study lies in the novel loss function and the over-segmentation strategy associated with AHC post-processing. Finally, the workflow has been proven an efficient tool for pore-scale wettability characterization, which has a wide range of applications in fundamental studies of multiphase flows in natural porous media, which have critical implications to geological carbon sequestration, hydrocarbon energy recovery, and contaminant transport in groundwater.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2020

Representation of Tropical Storms by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2

This study examines the veracity of the tropical cyclone (TC) statistics estimated from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) global atmospheric reanalysis, focusing on the climatological-mean genesis regions, tracks and their lifetime maximum intensity, as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variations in TC activity. The results are validated against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data for 1980-2016. MERRA-2 represents the spatial distribution of the TC genesis location and the tracks realistically well over all main development regions (MDRs), but with notable discrepancies including too weak TC activity over the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea and too strong activity over the North Indian Ocean. Over the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic, MERRA-2 underestimates recurving TCs steered by background westerlies in the mid-latitudes and thereby exaggerates northwestward moving TCs, resulting in an overestimate of the landfall probability in East Asia and North America. Excessive development of TCs over the Bay of Bengal also tends to exaggerate the landfall probability in India. In spite of the discrepancies in the annual TC number, the seasonal variation of TC genesis is realistic in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 also captures the TC intensity relationship between the minimum pressure and the maximum surface wind speed at the mature stage, although the maximum intensity is weaker than in the observations. While MERRA-2 tends to reproduce the interannual variations of the observed TC number and the power dissipation index (PDI), the level of accuracy depends on the region. MERRA-2 describes the changes in the TC genesis region and tracks realistically according to the different phases of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), although it is less realistic over the North Indian Ocean.

International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewa↗