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The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

Source record↗

An Overview of MODIS Calibration and Characterization and Lessons Learned

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a key instrument for NASA's EOS missions. Two nearly identical copies have flown on the Terra and Aqua spacecraft for more than 9 years and 6 years since their launch in December 1999 and May 2002, respectively. MODIS observations and associated data products have been widely used by the science community and users worldwide for studies of Earth's system of land, oceans, and atmosphere. MODIS was developed based on the desire of the science community to extend and enhance heritage sensors' data records. It was designed with enhancements made over its heritage sensors in terms of its spectral, spatial, and radiometric characteristics. It is a cross-track scanning radiometer, that uses a two-sided scan mirror, collecting data in 36 spectral bands covering spectral regions of visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), short-wave infrared (SWIR), mid-wave infrared (MWIR), and long-wave infrared (LWIR). The VIS, NIR, and SWIR bands (bands 1-19 and 26), which make measurements of daytime surface reflected radiances, are referred to as the reflective solar bands (RSB). The MWIR and LWIR bands (20-25 and 27-36), which measure both the daytime and nighttime scene emissive radiances, are thus referred to as the thermal emissive bands (TEB). In this paper, we provide an overview of MODIS instrument calibration and characterization methodologies, activities, and results from pre-launch to post launch, with emphasis on the lessons learned from its design to on-orbit operation. Currently, both instruments are operated normally and all the on-orbit calibration activities are performed on a regular basis with some at slightly reduced frequencies. The TEB responses have been extremely stable with less than 0.3% change per year. For the RSB, the changes are wavelength and scan angle dependent with the largest changes in the VIS spectral bands. As both Terra and Aqua MODIS continue to operate beyond their prime missions, constant effort is still needed to maintain instrument and calibration and data product quality. This paper shows that the lessons from Terra MODIS design, test, and operation, have greatly benefitted Aqua MODIS. Because of this, Aqua MODIS overall performance is better than Terra MODIS. It is not surprising that lessons from MODIS calibration and characterization, from methodologies to on-orbit implementation, have also provided valuable information for the design and development of future earth observing missions/sensors, such as VHRS on the NPP and NPOESS, ABI on GOES-R, OLI on LDCM, and the reflective solar sensor on CLARREO.

Xiong, Xiaxiong↗

Ultra-High Resolution Spectroscopic Remote Sensing: A Microscope on Planetary Atmospheres

Remote sensing of planetary atmospheres is not complete without studies of all levels of the atmosphere, including the dense cloudy- and haze filled troposphere, relatively clear and important stratosphere and the upper atmosphere, which are the first levels to experience the effects of solar radiation. High-resolution spectroscopy can provide valuable information on these regions of the atmosphere. Ultra-high spectral resolution studies can directly measure atmospheric winds, composition, temperature and non-thermal phenomena, which describe the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere. Spectroscopy in the middle to long infrared wavelengths can also probe levels where dust of haze limit measurements at shorter wavelength or can provide ambiguous results on atmospheric species abundances or winds. A spectroscopic technique in the middle infrared wavelengths analogous to a radio receiver. infrared heterodyne spectroscopy [1], will be describe and used to illustrate the detailed study of atmospheric phenomena not readily possible with other methods. The heterodyne spectral resolution with resolving power greater than 1,000.000 measures the true line shapes of emission and absorption lines in planetary atmospheres. The information on the region of line formation is contained in the line shapes. The absolute frequency of the lines can be measured to I part in 100 ,000,000 and can be used to accurately measure the Doppler frequency shift of the lines, directly measuring the line-of-sight velocity of the gas to --Im/s precision (winds). The technical and analytical methods developed and used to measure and analyze infrared heterodyne measurements will be described. Examples of studies on Titan, Venus, Mars, Earth, and Jupiter will be presented. 'These include atmospheric dynamics on slowly rotating bodies (Titan [2] and Venus [3] and temperature, composition and chemistry on Mars 141, Venus and Earth. The discovery and studies of unique atmospheric phenomena will also be described, such as non-thermal and lasing phenomena on Mars and Venus, mid-infrared aurora on Jupiter [5], and results of small body impacts on Jupiter [6]. The heterodyne technique can also be applied for detailed study of the Earth's stratosphere and mesosphere by measuring trace constituent abundances and temporal and spatial variability as well as winds, which provide information of transport. All ground-based measurements will be described as complementary and supporting studies for on-going and future space missions [7] (Mars Express, Venus Express, Cassini Huygens, JUNO, ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter, and the Europa Jupiter System Mission, an Earth Science Venture Class missions), Proposed instrument and technology development for a space flight infrared heterodyne spectrometer will be described.

Kostiuk, Theodor↗

Recommendations Emerging from an Analysis of NASA's Deep Space Communications Capacity

During 2016-2017, NASA’s Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Office chartered a study of Deep Space Network (DSN) communications capacity relative to projected future-mission demand over the next 30 years. In this paper, we briefly describe the methodology used to analyze capacity vs. demand over such a broad timeframe, summarize key findings emerging from the analysis, and discuss the associated recommendations. Performing the analysis entailed: identifying key factors shaping the anticipated future mission set, identifying several alternative future mission set scenarios consistent with these factors, and then analyzing each mission set scenario in terms of required antenna capacity, downlink and uplink capabilities, and spectrum as a function of time. On the basis of these aggregate requirements, DSN loading simulations were then conducted that examined how well each of the postulated mission sets could load up onto the the DSN’s “in-plan” architecture. To the extent that capacity shortfalls emerged during these baseline simulations, architectural solutions to the shortfalls were then postulated and tested via additional simulations. In general, the trend analyses and baseline loading simulations indicated a significant progression in challenges over the next three decades. In the current decade, the DSN appeared to be operating very close to capacity. The first human exploration mission and its secondary payload launch opportunities for cubesats traveling beyond GEO contributed to this loading. As a consequence, the main challenge appeared to be managing peak assetcontention periods. In the next decade, the DSN continued to operate close to capacity but also began transitioning to more frequent human mission support. Upgrading for, and operating, a human-rated system while continuing to meet robotic mission customer requirements emerged as the key challenge. In the 2030’s and beyond, simulations suggested a need for fundamentally new capability and capacity. The high data rates and long link distances characteristic of human Mars exploration drove requirements far beyond what is currently “in plan.” The key challenge then became determining the most cost-effective combination of RF and optical assets for communicating with the postulated human Mars assets while still providing for the needs of all the other missions across the solar system. Various link budget, visibility, and loading analyses ultimately suggested that the human Mars exploration demands of the 2030’s could best be addressed with two cross-linked RF-optical areostationary relays (or an areostationary relay and deep space habitat) providing a dual “trunk link” to an array of 2-to-3 additional 34m beam waveguide antennas and an ~8.5m optical antenna at each DSN Complex. The dual “trunk link” would enable the same amount of total data return to Earth as a single trunk link at twice the data rate, but with only half the required array size on the ground, assuming use of Multiple Spacecraft Per Antenna (MSPA) techniques. MSPA techniques, including a Multiple Uplink Per Antenna (MUPA) technique currently under investigation, also showed promise for reducing asset contention in the decades prior to human Mars exploration.

Lee, Carlyn-Ann↗

Geophysical Observations of the 2023 September 24 OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Sample return capsules (SRCs) entering Earth's atmosphere at hypervelocity from interplanetary space are a valuable resource for studying meteor phenomena. The 2023 September 24 arrival of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer SRC provided an unprecedented chance for geophysical observations of a well-characterized source with known parameters, including timing and trajectory. A collaborative effort involving researchers from 16 institutions executed a carefully planned geophysical observational campaign at strategically chosen locations, deploying over 400 ground-based sensors encompassing infrasound, seismic, distributed acoustic sensing, and Global Positioning System technologies. Additionally, balloons equipped with infrasound sensors were launched to capture signals at higher altitudes. This campaign (the largest of its kind so far) yielded a wealth of invaluable data anticipated to fuel scientific inquiry for years to come. The success of the observational campaign is evidenced by the near-universal detection of signals across instruments, both proximal and distal. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the collective scientific effort, field deployment, and preliminary findings. The early findings have the potential to inform future space missions and terrestrial campaigns, contributing to our understanding of meteoroid interactions with planetary atmospheres. Furthermore, the data set collected during this campaign will improve entry and propagation models and augment the study of atmospheric dynamics and shock phenomena generated by meteoroids and similar sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

ICARUS: in-Situ Studies of the Solar Corona Beyond Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter

The primary scientific goal of ICARUS (Investigation of Coronal AcceleRation and heating of solar wind Up to the Sun), a mother-daughter satellite mission, proposed in response to the ESA “Voyage 2050” Call, will be to determine how the magnetic field and plasma dynamics in the outer solar atmosphere give rise to the corona, the solar wind, and the entire heliosphere. Reaching this goal will be a Rosetta Stone step, with results that are broadly applicable within the fields of space plasma physics and astrophysics. Within ESA’s Cosmic Vision roadmap, these science goals address Theme 2: “How does the Solar System work?” by investigating basic processes occurring “From the Sun to the edge of the Solar System”. ICARUS will not only advance our understanding of the plasma environment around our Sun, but also of the numerous magnetically active stars with hot plasma coronae. ICARUS I will perform the first direct in situ measurements of electromagnetic fields, particle acceleration, wave activity, energy distribution, and flows directly in the regions in which the solar wind emerges from the coronal plasma. ICARUS I will have a perihelion altitude of 1 solar radius and will cross the region where the major energy deposition occurs. The polar orbit of ICARUS I will enable crossing the regions where both the fast and slow winds are generated. It will probe the local characteristics of the plasma and provide unique information about the physical processes involved in the creation of the solar wind. ICARUS II will observe this region using remote-sensing instruments, providing simultaneous, contextual information about regions crossed by ICARUS I and the solar atmosphere below as observed by solar telescopes. It will thus provide bridges for understanding the magnetic links between the heliosphere and the solar atmosphere. Such information is crucial to our understanding of the plasma physics and electrodynamics of the solar atmosphere. ICARUS II will also play a very important relay role, enabling the radio-link with ICARUS I. It will receive, collect, and store information transmitted from ICARUS I during its closest approach to the Sun. It will also perform preliminary data processing before transmitting it to Earth. Performing such unique in situ observations in the area where presumably hazardous solar energetic particles are energized, ICARUS will provide fundamental advances in our capabilities to monitor and forecast the space radiation environment. Therefore, the results from the ICARUS mission will be extremely crucial for future space explorations, especially for long-term crewed space missions.

Solar wind↗

3D Observation of GEMS by Electron Tomography

Amorphous silicates in chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles (CP-IDPs) coming from comets are dominated by glass with embedded metal and sulfides (GEMS). GEMS grains are submicron-sized rounded objects (typically 100-500) nm in diameter) with anaometer-sized (10-50 nm) Fe-Ni metal and sulfide grains embedded in an amorphous silicate matrix. Several formation processes for GEMS grains have been proposed so far, but these models are still being debated [2-5]. Bradley et al. proposed that GEMS grains are interstellar silicate dust that survived various metamorphism or alteration processes in the protoplanetary disk and that they are amorphiation products of crystalline silicates in the interstellar medium by sputter-deposition of cosmic ray irradiation, similar to space weathering [2,4]. This consideration is based on the observation of nano-sized crystals (approximately 10 nm) called relict grains in GEMS grains and their shapes are pseudomorphs to the host GEMS grains. On the other hand, Keller and Messenger proposed that most GEMS formed in the protoplanetary disk as condensates from high temperature gas [3,5]. This model is based on the fact that most GEMS grains have solar isotopic compositions and have extremely heterogeneous and non-solar elemental compositions. Keller and Messenger (2011) also reported that amorphous silicates in GEMS grains are surrounded by sulfide grains, which formed as sulfidization of metallic iron grains located on the GEMS surface. The previous studies were performed with 2D observation by using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) or scanning TEM (STEM). In order to understand the structure of GEMS grains described above more clearly, we observed 3D structure of GEMS grains by electron tomography using a TEM/STEM (JEM-2100F, JEOL) at Kyoto University. Electron tomography gives not only 3D structures but also gives higher spatial resolution (approximately a few nm) than that in conventional 2D image, which is restricted by sample thickness ) approx. or greater than 50 nm). Three cluster IDPs (L2036AA5 cluster4, L2009L8 cluster 13 and W726A2) were used for the observations. ID W726A2 was collected without silicon oil, which is ordinary used to collect IDPs, so this sample has no possibility of contaminations caused by silicon oil or solvent to rinse it [6]. The samples were embedded in epoxy risin and sliced into ultrathin sections (50-300 nm) using an ultramicotome. The sections were observed by BF-TEM and HAADF-STEM (high angle annular dark field-scanning TEM) modes. Images were obtained by rotating the sample tilt angle over a range of +/- 65 deg in 1 deg steps. The obtained images were reconstructed to slice images. Mineral phases in the slice images were estimated by comparing with a 2D elemental map obtained by an EDS (energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy) system equipped in the TEM/STEM. Careful examination of the slice images confirmed that iron grains are embedded in the amorphous silicate matrix of the GEMS grains, but sulfide grains were mainly present on the surface of the amorphous silicate. These results are consistent with the model that GEMS grains formed as condensates [3,5], although more data are needed to conclude the origin of GEMS grains. The present study is the first successful example adapting the electron tomography to the IDPs. This type of analysis will be important for planetary material sciences in the future.

Matsuno, Junya↗

The study of coronal plasma structures and fluctuations with Faraday rotation measurements

We report dual-frequency, polarimetric measurements of Faraday rotation of extragalactic radio sources viewed through the solar corona. The observations were made at the Very Large Array in 1990 during solar maximum. Of the nine observed, an excess rotation measure of -12.6 rad/sq m was detected for one source (0010+005), which was observed at an elongation of about 9 solar radii. This measurement is in fair agreement with an a priori model rotation measure of -8.6 rad/sq m estimated from coronal potential field models and the electron density model of Paetzold et al. (1992). Our measurement provides a value for the coronal magnetic field strength at 9 solar radii given a knowledge of the magnetic field sector structure, of 12.5 +/- 2.3 mG. Rotation measurements of 0010+005 were made approximately once per hour over an 11 hr period. During this interval, a slow change of about 1 rad/sq m/hr in rotation measure was detected. Although we are not absolutely certain that this drift is not unremoved ionospheric Faraday rotation, extensive analysis of data from the other sources suggests that this is not the case (Sakurai & Spangler 1994). The very long timescale for this variation argues against the agency of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) waves, and we suggest occultation of 0010+005 by relatively static plasma structures in the corona. We filtered our rotation measure time series to search for variations on an hourly timescale, such as those reported by Hollweg et al. (1992), which could be attributed to coronal MHD waves. We were unable to detect such fluctuations and can report only an upper limit to the rms variation of 1.6 rad/sq m. This upper limit is of the same order, but slightly larger than the values typically reported by Hollweg et al. (1982). This upper limit to the rotation measure fluctuations limits the dimensionless wave amplitude (delta B)/B in the corona to be less than 0.7. Using the number, we estimate the MHD wave flux at the coronal base to be less than 1.6 x 10(exp 5) ergs/sq cm/s. This is less than the amount of wave energy flux required by wave-driven models of the solar wind. Finally, we discuss a number of ways in which such observations could be improved in the future.

Sakurai, Takayuki↗

Advances in Design Capabilities for Planetary Missions from the NASA Entry Systems Modeling and Instrumentation Portfolio

The Entry Systems Modeling project (ESM) is supported by both the NASA Space Technology and the Science Mission Directorates and focuses on developing simulation tools and validated models for characterizing the performance of entry systems tailored to planetary destinations across the Solar System. ESM is organized into six technical capability areas that together address all relevant factors related to spacecraft entry, as well as some aspects of descent: Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials; Aerothermodynamics; Entry & Descent Vehicle Dynamics; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Vehicle Systems Analysis; and Advanced Tools and Numerical Methods. Development within the capability areas is undertaken explicitly with a focus on transition and infusion to science missions, human exploration missions, and commercial space activities. The present talk details developments that specifically impact science missions, including simulation tool capabilities that aid in mission design and model development to understand entry system performance at a given destination. Examples of the successful infusion and transition of such project outcomes to science missions also are provided. Several simulation tool development efforts within ESM have resulted in new design capabilities for missions. One such outcome is improved toolsets for mission trajectory and concept of operations design. Specifically, an initiative to couple a leading tool for entry, ascent/descent, and orbital trajectory optimization (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II or POST2) to those used within the Agency for interplanetary trajectory optimization (Copernicus and Monte) has made substantial progress, with the outcomes to date promising to allow efficient trajectory optimization across mission phases. Additionally, toolchains for the evaluation of vehicle performance during entry and descent have been developed that allow assessment of multi-dimensional aeroheating on detailed vehicle geometries, characterization of deployment and inflation of parachutes, and assessment of vehicle dynamic stability during descent. These capabilities are achieved by coupling diverse sets of physics together – material response, computational fluid dynamics, radiation, and vehicle dynamics – to suitably describe complex entry and descent phenomena. Several model development and validation efforts for specific destinations and entry regimes also are underway within the ESM project. For instance, new experimental capabilities to validate radiation models at low densities/high altitudes recently have been established with project support, specifically the Low-Density Shock Tube (LDST) at the NASA Ames Research Center Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The LDST is being leveraged to develop improved models of shock layer kinetics and radiation in Titan atmospheres, while future studies will be conducted in the LDST and the existing high velocity shock tube to provide validation data for radiation models of Venus, Ice Giants, and Mars atmospheres. Models describing the aerothermal and thermo-structural performance of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials has been another focus, with multiscale modeling activities on-going for the two leading TPS materials applicable to a range of entry conditions and science missions: the Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and woven materials like 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). A continual effort is made to infuse and transition outcomes from ESM simulation tool and model development activities into relevant science missions. Significant progress has been made on this front, with missions such as Dragonfly, DAVINCI, and Mars Missions benefitting from project outcomes. The groundwork also is being laid to provide insights into forward looking missions to Gas/Ice Giants as well as for potential sample returns.

Justin Haskins↗

In‐operando thermal transport characterization of moving particle bed heat exchanger

The project aimed to develop modulated photothermal radiometry (MPR) for conducting in-operando measurements of thermal transport in moving particle bed heat exchangers (MPBE) located at Sandia National Laboratory (SNL). The plan was to initially conduct lab-scale measurements on a 1-meter-long particle channel at UCSD, followed by in- operando measurements at SNL on a 20 kWth MPBE prototype built for this project, and if time permitting, potential final deployment on SNL’s 1 MWth G3P3 MPBE. The first two goals were successfully achieved but due to changes with commissioning timeline of the G3P3 MPBE, in-operando measurements on the G3P3 MPBE could not be conducted. The measurement campaigns have resulted in some promising results and the MPR tool has been handed over to trained SNL personnel for future use. MPR measurements on UCSD’s 1-meter-long particle channel showed a peculiar length dependence of the particle bed thermal conductivity and near-wall thermal resistance. The bed thermal conductivity increased, and the near-wall thermal resistance decreased, with increasing distance from the channel inlet, both eventually reaching a plateau. This was found to be due to hydrostatic pressure screening by the channel walls, known as the “Janssen effect”, and is the first experimental study on its role in granular heat transfer. A 20 kWth small-scale MPBE prototype, the first of its kind with 3 mm particle channels and 2 mm sCO2 plates, was designed and manufactured by Vacuum Process Engineering (VPE) for this project. This MPBE prototype was installed in SNL’s HEX test stand and the MPR tool was integrated into the test stand for in-operando measurements. Several modifications have been made to the MPR setup for facile installation and easy operation at SNL. Measurements with Carbo HSP40/70 particles were conducted with various particle and sCO2 temperatures and flow rates. Further, apart from regular MPBE operation, fault scenarios such as plate warping, particle stagnation, and choking were also detected and MPR showed excellent sensitivity to the detection of such conditions. Through the course of this project, MPR has evolved from a sensitive laboratory technique to a rugged industrial tool with various applications in high temperature measurements and diagnostics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Understanding Economic and Deployment Benefits of Wind-PV Hybrid Power Plants

The least-cost approach to decarbonizing the U.S. electricity supply will likely involve a significantly expanded share of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation. Many strategies and approaches have been identified to address integration challenges in a VRE-dominated system, including standalone and coupled battery systems. In this study, we explored the current and future potential of utility-scale hybrid energy systems comprising PV, wind, and lithium-ion battery technologies (PV-wind-battery systems). Analysis results include temporal complementarity of wind and PV resources across the contiguous United States, with an emphasis on metrics that quantify reductions in variability that can be achieved through hybridization. We further use a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices to determine the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of PV-wind-battery configurations across Texas, from the present through 2050. We find that coupling PV, wind, and battery technologies allows for more effective utilization of interconnection capacity by increasing capacity factors to 60-80%+ and capacity credits to close to 100%, depending on battery capacity. We also compared the energy and capacity values of PV-wind and PV-wind-battery systems to the corresponding stability coefficient metric, which describes the location-and configuration-specific complementarity of PV and wind resources. Our results show that the stability coefficient effectively predicts the configuration-location combinations in which a smaller battery component can provide comparable economic performance in a PV-wind-battery system (compared to a PV-battery system). These PV-wind-battery hybrids can help integrate more VRE by providing smoother, more predictable generation and greater flexibility. Finally, capacity expansion modeling of PV-wind systems indicates that hybridization can reduce transmission expansion requirements associated with a heavily decarbonized U.S. electricity system.

complementarity↗

Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) Development Risk Communication

There are clear advantages of development of a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) for a crewed mission to Mars. NTR for in-space propulsion enables more ambitious space missions by providing high thrust at high specific impulse (approximately 900 sec) that is 2 times the best theoretical performance possible for chemical rockets. Missions can be optimized for maximum payload capability to take more payload with reduced total mass to orbit; saving cost on reduction of the number of launch vehicles needed. Or missions can be optimized to minimize trip time significantly to reduce the deep space radiation exposure to the crew. NTR propulsion technology is a game changer for space exploration. However, "NUCLEAR" is a word that is feared and vilified by some groups and the hostility towards development of any nuclear systems can meet great opposition by the public as well as from national leaders and people in authority. Communication of nuclear safety will be critical to the success of the development of the NTR. Why is there a fear of nuclear? A bomb that can level a city is a scary weapon. The first and only times the Nuclear Bomb was used in a war was on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War 2. The "Little Boy" atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945 and the "Fat Man" on Nagasaki 3 days later on August 9th. Within the first 4 months of bombings, 90- 166 thousand people died in Hiroshima and 60-80 thousand died in Nagasaki. It is important to note for comparison that over 500 thousand people died and 5 million made homeless due to strategic bombing (approximately 150 thousand tons) of Japanese cities and war assets with conventional non-nuclear weapons between 1942- 1945. A major bombing campaign of "firebombing" of Tokyo called "Operation Meetinghouse" on March 9 and 10 consisting of 334 B-29's dropped approximately1,700 tons of bombs around 16 square mile area and over 100 thousand people have been estimated to have died. The declaration of death is very clear for conventional weapons and then the declaration of death due to radiation becomes vague and unclear. This may have been due to people mis-understanding the dangers and effects of radiation when assessing the damage and harm to people initially, but it is also become insidious when expressing opposition to nuclear energy. A nuclear radiation accident can be scary due to the power involved and the fear of radiation release. The International Atomic Energy Agency defines a nuclear and radiation accident a "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility." There have been 3 commercial nuclear reactor accidents (Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima) that stand out to the public and much of the information about the result and impact to workers, environment, and public can be misleading. Often information is presented without clear correlation with radiation and other pertinent information is left out presenting a very scary situation to affect the emotions of the reader. A very boring but "critically acclaimed" movie was made in 1979 called "The China Syndrome" starring Jane Fonda and Jack Lemmon. The film was released on March 16, 1979, 12 days before the 3-Mile Island nuclear accident in Pennsylvania. The basis from the movie was from a few nuclear plant incidents and in particular, the Brown's Ferry Alabama Power Plant fire. In one scene from the movie, a physicist Dr. Elliott Lowell played by Donald Hotton states that a China Syndrome event would make "an area the size of Pennsylvania" permanently uninhabitable. Real serious nuclear incidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima are often sited to make people fear the consequences of using nuclear power. However, the consequences are at best poorly communicated and at worst fictitiously inflated to instigate social unrest against nuclear power. There is an article being circulated on Facebook with a title "28 Signs that the (US) West Coast is being absolutely fried with nuclear radiation from Fukushima" which focus on mis-information and fear mongering. Nuclear power and NTR are powerful resources that can open many doors for future prosperity and capability. With great power comes great responsibility. Radiation and its effects need to be better understood, quantified, and communicated. A human mission to mars has its own risks of deep space radiation and is considered a considerable risk at 400 milli-Sieverts per year in deep space and 245 milli-Sieverts per year on the surface of Mars as measured by the Mars Curiosity mission. Although these quantities of ionizing radiation are within the astronaut career limit, it exceeds the yearly average amounts of ionizing radiation. Astronaut crews have experienced these levels of radiation before, but for durations shorter than a year, and a mission to Mars could possibly be 3 years in length. There is also evidence that people can comfortably handle higher levels of ionizing radiation where the radiation occurs naturally like Ramsar, Iran when people can experience 270 milli-Sieverts per year. A risk posture that the development, test, and flight of an NTR will meet opposition from groups who oppose nuclear energy must be likely and the impact can be sever to the effort. Active risk mitigation must be taken for an NTR full-scale development project. The NTR design must take into account safety for transport and off nominal conditions. Nuclear fuel element must consider containment of fission products and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) that may meet less opposition should be considered for safety and security reasons. Even though testing was conducted on Rover/NERVA safely and successfully in the 60's with exhaust sent heavenward in to open air, modern testing of NTR must consider full containment and no release of ionizing radiation to the public and must meet the current requirement of no more than 0.1 milli-Sieverts per year to the public. 0.1 milli-Sieverts is equivalent to eating one banana or a 20 hour plane flight. Good communication with the public and regulatory agencies will be essential to show that all effort is applied toward protection to the public and astronauts. The inspiring endeavor to put humans on Mars to study the planet, search for life, and learn more about this Solar System will be full of risks but it will be worth it. NTR will be worth the development effort if it allows humans to explore our Solar System.

Kim, Tony↗

Characterization of n-Type Iodine-Doped and Indium-Doped CdTe/Cd-Se-Te Thin Films Fabricated by Close-Spaced Sublimation Epitaxy

In this study, n-type CdTe thin films, specifically iodine-doped CdTe (CdTe:I), indium-doped CdTe (CdTe:In), and indium-doped Cd-Se-Te (CST:In), were synthesized using close-spaced sublimation epitaxy (CSSE). Characterization techniques secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), Hall-effect measurements, and time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) were employed to analyze the chemical, structural, and electronic properties of these materials. The results indicated epitaxial single crystal CSSE films grew on the single crystal substrates, with carrier density ranging from 10^14 - 10^16 cm -3 , and after post-annealing, the minority-carrier lifetimes reach near the radiative limit. Additionally, a preliminary exploration of homojunction structures with an n- type (CdTe:In /CST:In /CdTe:I) /CdTe:P /Cu /Mo configuration was performed. The best device performance was achieved with CdTe:I including CdS aiding in band alignment, resulting in a power conversion efficiency (..eta..) of 2.61% with open circuit voltage (Voc) of 850 mV, fill factor (FF) of 47.8%, and short-circuit current (Jsc) of 6.44 mA/cm 2 . The observed low Jsc and efficiency may be attributed to a buried junction and a poor interface, due to dopant interdiffusion. Consequently, further investigations focusing on interface optimization, diffusion blocking, and reduced recombination through passivation, are crucial to enhancing the efficiency of CSSE CdTe homojunction devices in the future.

cadmium compounds↗

Exploring Local Vibrational Structure in Protein-Bound Chlorophyll a: Isotope-Enrichment Experiments and Electrostatic Analysis

Local chlorophyll (Chl) vibrations play an essential role in biological photosynthesis by facilitating rapid energy transfer between pigments. In research studies, they also provide a useful spectroscopic probe of the local protein environment that surrounds each pigment. However, measuring the complete vibrational absorption spectrum of a protein-bound Chl molecule is much more difficult than, for example, Chl in neat solvent due to overlap with protein vibrations that typically drown out Chl vibrational features. Resonance Raman and fluorescence spectroscopies provide a way around this problem for Franck–Condon active vibrations, but these often rely on cryogenic measurement conditions and fail to capture vibrational signatures from, e.g., ester-group vibrations that lack coupling to a convenient electronic transition. In the present contribution, we use 13 C-enrichment of the protein backbone to shift protein background signals to lower frequency, providing a largely clean spectral window in which to study local Chl a C═O stretch modes. A room-temperature absorption spectrum for Chl a in the water-soluble chlorophyll protein (WSCP) of Lepidium virginicum is thus extracted as a difference between protein-plus-pigment and protein-only vibrational spectra. Excellent agreement in the molecular fingerprint region with the vibrational spectrum of Chl a in organic solvents confirms that the resulting spectrum represents the response of the protein-bound Chl a molecule. Furthermore, the ester group resonance is observed to shift in response to the S53P mutation that eliminates a 17 3 ester group hydrogen bond from the protein environment. Finally, we analyze these experimental results using MD-based electrostatic analysis, finding that electric-field mapping at the C atom of the ester group provides a satisfactory explanation for the observed frequency shifts between organic solvent and protein environment. MD analysis further suggests that a red-shifted ester peak observed experimentally for the S53P mutant results from solvation of the 17 3 Chl ester group due increase water penetration into the Chl-binding pocket relative to wild-type WSCP. Here, we anticipate that these results will prove useful both for benchmarking future simulation work and as a reference for interpreting Chl vibrational spectra as a probe of pigment–protein interactions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

MACS, An Instrument, and a Methodology for Simulations and Global Measurements of the Coronal Electron Temperature and the Solar Wind Velocity on the Solar Corona

The determination of the radial and latitudinal temperature and wind profiles of the solar corona is of great importance in understanding the coronal heating mechanism and the dynamics of coronal expansion. Cram presented the theory for the formation of the K-coronal spectrum and identified two important observations. He observed the existence of temperature sensitive anti-nodes at certain wavelengths in the theoretical K-coronal spectra. The anti-nodes are separated by temperature-insensitive nodes. Remarkably, Cram showed that the wavelengths of the nodes and anti-nodes are almost independent of altitude above the solar limb. Because of these features, Cram suggested that the intensity ratios at two anti-nodes could be used as a diagnostic of the electron temperature in the K-corona. Based on this temperature diagnostic technique prescribed by Cram a slit-based spectroscopic study was performed by Ichimoto et al. on the solar corona in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 3 Nov 1994 in Putre, Chile to determine the temperature profile of the solar corona. In this thesis Cram's theory has been extended to incorporate the role of the solar wind in the formation of the K-corona, and we have identified both temperature and wind sensitive intensity ratios. The instrument, MACS, for Multi Aperture Coronal Spectrometer, a fiber optic based spectrograph, was designed for global and simultaneous measurement of the thermal electron temperature and the solar wind velocity in the solar corona. The first ever experiment of this nature was conducted in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 11 Aug 1999 in Elazig, Turkey. In this instrument one end of each of twenty fiber optic tips were positioned in the focal plane of the telescope in such a way that we could observe conditions simultaneously at many different latitudes and two different radial distances in the solar corona. The other ends of the fibers were vertically aligned and placed at the primary focus of the collimating lens of the spectrograph to obtain simultaneous and global spectra on the solar corona. By isolating the K-coronal spectrum from the spectrum recorded by each fiber the temperature and the wind sensitive intensity ratios were calculated to obtain simultaneous and global measurements of the thermal electron temperature and the solar wind velocity. We were successful in obtaining reliable estimates of the coronal temperature at many positions in the corona. This is the first time that simultaneous measurements of coronal temperatures have been obtained at so many points. However due to instrumental scattering encountered during observations, reliable estimates of the wind velocity turned out to be impossible to obtain. Although remedial measures were taken prior to observation, this task proved to be difficult owing to the inability to replicate the conditions expected during an eclipse in the laboratory. The full extent of the instrumental scattering was apparent only when we analyzed the observational sequence. Nevertheless the experience obtained from this very first attempt to simultaneously and globally measure both the wind velocity and the temperature on the solar corona have provided valuable information to conduct any future observations successfully.

Reginald, Nelson L.↗

Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE): Overview, Accomplishments and Future Needs

Materials and devices used on the exterior of spacecraft in low Earth orbit (LEO) are subjected to environmental threats that can cause degradation in material properties, possibly threatening spacecraft mission success. These threats include: atomic oxygen (AO), ultraviolet and x-ray radiation, charged particle radiation, temperature extremes and thermal cycling, micrometeoroid and debris impacts, and contamination. Space environmental threats vary greatly based on spacecraft materials, thicknesses and stress levels, and the mission environment and duration. For more than a decade the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) has enabled the study of the long duration environmental durability of spacecraft materials in the LEO environment. The overall objective of MISSE is to test the stability and durability of materials and devices in the space environment in order to gain valuable knowledge on the performance of materials in space, as well as to enable lifetime predictions of new materials that may be used in future space flight. MISSE is a series of materials flight experiments, which are attached to the exterior of the International Space Station (ISS). Individual experiments were loaded onto suitcase-like trays, called Passive Experiment Containers (PECs). The PECs were transported to the ISS in the Space Shuttle cargo bay and attached to, and removed from, the ISS during extravehicular activities (EVAs). The PECs were retrieved after one or more years of space exposure and returned to Earth enabling post-flight experiment evaluation. MISSE is a multi-organization project with participants from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Defense (DoD), industry and academia. MISSE has provided a platform for environmental durability studies for thousands of samples and numerous devices, and it has produced many tangible impacts. Ten PECs (and one smaller tray) have been flown, representing MISSE 1 through MISSE 8, yielding long-duration space environmental performance and durability data that enable material validation, processing recertification and space qualification; improved predictions of materials and component lifetimes in space; model verification and development; and correlation factors between space-exposure and ground-facilities enabling more accurate in-space performance predictions based on ground-laboratory testing. A few of the many experiment results and observations, and their impacts, are provided. Those highlighted include examples on improved understanding of atomic oxygen scattering mechanisms, LEO coating durability results, and polymer erosion yields and their impacts on spacecraft design. The MISSE 2 Atomic Oxygen Scattering Chamber Experiment discovered that the peak flux of scattered AO was determined to be 45 deg from normal incidence, not the model predicted cosine dependence. In addition, the erosion yield (E(sub y)) of Kapton H for AO scattered off oxidized-Al is 22% of the E(sub y) of direct AO impingement. These results were used to help determine the degradation mechanism of a cesium iodide detector within the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph Experiment. The MISSE 6 Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) Degradation Experiment measured surface electrical resistance of ram and wake ITO coated samples. The data confirmed that ITO is a stable AO protective coating, and the results validated the durability of ITO conductive coatings for solar arrays for the Atmosphere-Space Transition 2 Explorer program. The MISSE 2, 6 and 7 Polymer Experiments have provided LEO AO Ey data on over 120 polymer and composites samples. The flight E(sub y) values were found to range from 3.05 x 10(exp -26) cu cm/atom for the AO resistant polymer CORIN to 9.14 x 10(exp -26) cu cm/atom for polyoxymethylene (POM). In addition, flying the same polymers on different missions has advanced the understanding of the AO E(sub y) dependency on solar exposure for polymers containing fluorine. The MISSE polymer results are highly requested and have impacted spacecraft design for WorldView-2 & -3, the Global Precipitation Measurement-Microwave Imager, and other spacecraft. The flight data has enabled the development of an Atomic Oxygen Erosion Predictive Tool that allows the erosion prediction of new and non-flown polymers. The data has also been used to develop a new NASA Technical Standards Handbook "Spacecraft Polymers Atomic Oxygen Durability Handbook." Many intangible benefits have also been derived from MISSE. For example, over 40 students have collaborated on Glenn's MISSE experiments, which have resulted in greater than $80K in student scholarships and awards in national and international science fairs. Students have also given presentations and won poster competition awards at international space conferences.

Flight Experiment↗

Microfilament-Eruption Mechanism for Solar Spicules

Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets result from eruption of small-scale filaments, or "minifilaments" (Sterling et al. 2015, Nature, 523, 437; Panesar et al. ApJL, 832L, 7). In many aspects, these coronal jets appear to be small-scale versions of long-recognized large-scale solar eruptions that are often accompanied by eruption of a large-scale filament and that produce solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In coronal jets, a jet-base bright point (JBP) that is often observed to accompany the jet and that sits on the magnetic neutral line from which the minifilament erupts, corresponds to the solar flare of larger-scale eruptions that occurs at the neutral line from which the large-scale filament erupts. Large-scale eruptions are relatively uncommon (approximately 1 per day) and occur with relatively large-scale erupting filaments (approximately 10 (sup 5) kilometers long). Coronal jets are more common (approximately 100s per day), but occur from erupting minifilaments of smaller size (approximately 10 (sup 4) kilometers long). It is known that solar spicules are much more frequent (many millions per day) than coronal jets. Just as coronal jets are small-scale versions of large-scale eruptions, here we suggest that solar spicules might in turn be small-scale versions of coronal jets; we postulate that the spicules are produced by eruptions of "microfilaments" of length comparable to the width of observed spicules (approximately 300 kilometers). A plot of the estimated number of the three respective phenomena (flares/CMEs, coronal jets, and spicules) occurring on the Sun at a given time, against the average sizes of erupting filaments, minifilaments, and the putative microfilaments, results in a size distribution that can be fitted with a power-law within the estimated uncertainties. The counterparts of the flares of large-scale eruptions and the JBPs of jets might be weak, pervasive, transient brightenings observed in Hinode/CaII images, and the production of spicules by microfilament eruptions might explain why spicules spin, as do coronal jets. The expected small-scale neutral lines from which the microfilaments would be expected to erupt would be difficult to detect reliably with current instrumentation, but might be apparent with instrumentation of the near future. A full report on this work appears in Sterling and Moore 2016, ApJL, 829, L9.

spicule↗

Development of Machine Learning Algorithms to Segment and Study Images of Astromaterial Samples

Introduction: Micrometer-scale chemical analyses of chondritic meteorites and mission-returned asteroid samples can reveal details of the physical and chemical processes operating in the early solar system, including processes that gave rise to planets, moons, and minor bodies. These primitive astromaterials are comprised of chondrules, calcium- and aluminum-rich inclusions (CAI), and many other silicates, oxides, metals, sulfides, and fine-grained materials. The chemical and mineralogical complexity of these samples, vast populations of different components, and heterogeneity across mm to km scales, all limit our understanding of the origin and evolution of these materials. Here, we describe recent efforts to use machine learning techniques to automate the segmentation of chemical maps of chondritic meteorites, designed to aid studies of asteroid samples returned by spacecraft. By automating the task of segmentation it will become possible to rapidly analyze and interpret the sizes, shapes, mineralogy, chemistry, and other properties of every chondrule, calcium- and aluminum-rich inclusion (CAI) and other clast within and between asteroid samples. Sample return missions significantly accelerate and heighten the need to develop such new data analysis techniques, and associated data repositories. Techniques: Neural networks require abundant training data, i.e. images which have been segmented by a human user. We have manually segmented data available from previous petrologic and chemical work at NASA Johnson Space Center and the American Museum of Natural History [1-4]. These data were derived from energy- and wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS, WDS) mapping of samples from many chondrite groups. The Deeplabv3+ [5] neural network architecture was trained on human-labeled masks and used to create machine-labeled masks. Several different algorithms were investigated, with inputs ranging from common RGB image formats through to hyperspectral datasets, with raw data comprising greyscale maps of Mg, Ca, and Al, with or without Si, Fe, Ti for both EDS and WDS data, and extending to other elements in EDS only. Each greyscale image was paired with a binary mask for each labelled particle type. Results: The trained algorithms can segment (Fig 1), classify, and measure the dimensions of thousands of particles in chemical maps of a standard 1-inch round petrographic section in seconds to minutes, rather than many hours needed by a human. Accuracy of the algorithms varied from chondrite to chondrite and across particle types. Further results and details of the algorithms will be presented at the workshop. Future directions: Machine learning has the potential to revolutionize our understanding of complex particle populations contained within primitive astromaterial, with segmentation being a critical first step. Example applications include better understanding of particle transport, nebular reservoirs, parent body accretion, and a deeper understanding of the relationships between particle populations and bulk rock elemental and isotopic compositions. In addition to benefits that machine learning can bring to individual researchers, building a community data repository of thousands to millions of particles across hundreds of samples will open up many other possibilities. For example, with a large enough dataset it will be possible to search for exceptionally closely matching particles across disparate samples. Such a capability would enable a single CAI from OSIRISREx or Hayabusa/II samples to be matched to chondritic CAIs that exhibit near-identical size, texture, and mineralogy, down to the level of similar core phenocrysts, zonation, and rim sequences. Such comparative analyses will help to disentangle precursor chemistry, chronology, gas/dust reservoirs during heating, and accretion. Such an endeavor would be impossible without machine learning and a large community data repository of astromaterial chemical/mineralogic maps.

Machine Learning↗