SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Sensitivity Simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,495 records · Page 83

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Deep Convection and Large-scale Circulation in Driving Model Spread in Low Cloud Feedback and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

This project aims to advance the understanding of the processes that drive the large uncertainties in climate change projections, use observations to constrain model physics and reduce the inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). There are three major goals: 1) Characterize the representation of the physical pathways that link deep convection, large-scale circulation and low cloud feedback in CMIP6 model simulations and determine the relative contribution of each pathway to the CMIP6 model spread in low cloud feedback and ECS; 2) Use process-oriented diagnostics and multiple observations to evaluate CMIP6 model performance in capturing the observed cloud-circulation relation and deep convection characteristics including convective transition statistics and the bulk properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Error decomposition in CMIP6 models will be performed. 3) Conduct E3SM short-range hindcasts following the DOE Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) protocol to pinpoint specific model parameters/processes that are crucial to the representation of deep convection, circulation, clouds and the pathways that connect them. We will modify convective parameters in E3SM and analyze the perturbed physics experiments (PPEs) to isolate model parameters that are critical to the uncertainty of ECS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient sensitivity analysis of the thermal profile in powder bed fusion of metals using hypercomplex automatic differentiation finite element method

Rapid cyclic temperature fluctuation occurring in powder bed fusion of metals using a laser beam (PBF-LB/M) influences the formation of flaws in printed parts. Consequently, there is a pressing need to enhance the quality of printed parts by developing innovative methodologies that can predict thermal histories and help uncover the intricate relationships between process parameters and thermal profiles. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) emerges as an essential tool for this, offering the potential for process optimization and enhanced quality control. Nonetheless, conventional SA methodologies often incur in excessive computational costs and potential numerical approximation errors. Here, to address this technical challenge, we present a novel method for SA that integrates the HYPercomplex-based Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) technique with transient thermal simulations conducted via the finite element method (FEM). Leveraging this methodology, we efficiently and accurately perform SA for PBF-LB/M processes in a post-processing step. Compared to traditional methods like Finite Differences (FD), HYPAD-FEM required 96 % less computational time for obtaining sensitivities for 22 process parameters, under a comparative study conducted within the context of the 2018–02 AM benchmark of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. In summary, HYPAD-FEM offers superior efficiency and accuracy in SA over conventional methods, delivering the best sensitivity of a model without the need for step-size selection and problem or parameter-based implementations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure-Sensitive modeling of surface roughness and notch effects on extreme value fatigue response

Fatigue life knockdown due to surface roughness induces local stress concentrations. Physical fatigue experiments are crucial to qualify materials for use but are limited in their capability to examine the mechanisms underlying the fatigue crack formation driving force due to these stress concentrations. Microstructure-sensitive computational models can aid in this regard and are employed in this work to examine the effects of surface roughness in Al 7075-T6. Digital microstructure models are subjected to crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) simulations to examine the combined effects of microstructure and grain scale asperities on the driving force for fatigue crack formation. Following elastic–plastic shakedown, mesoscale volume-averaged fatigue indicator parameters (FIPs) are computed within fatigue damage process zones of grains. An increase in the intensity of realistic surface roughness profiles corresponds accordingly to larger FIPs but it is difficult to precisely interpret the mechanisms and effects of this intensification. We thus parametrically investigate surface asperities that couple with microstructure and lack of constraint on slip at the free surface to describe microstructure-sensitive surface roughness knockdown effects on fatigue resistance. The depth of a single valley (i.e., notch) due to surface roughness is found to be more detrimental to fatigue resistance than the radius (i.e., notch width, not to be confused with notch acuity). Finally, we also find that different crystallographic textures, grain morphologies, and number of sampled grains have a limited effect on the depth of influence of these notches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Numerical investigation of microbial quorum sensing under various flow conditions

Microorganisms efficiently coordinate phenotype expressions through a decision-making process known as quorum sensing (QS). We investigated QS amongst distinct, spatially distributed microbial aggregates under various flow conditions using a process-driven numerical model. Model simulations assess the conditions suitable for QS induction and quantify the importance of advective transport of signaling molecules. In addition, advection dilutes signaling molecules so that faster flow conditions require higher microbial densities, faster signal production rates, or higher sensitivities to signaling molecules to induce QS. However, autoinduction of signal production can substantially increase the transport distance of signaling molecules in both upstream and downstream directions. We present empirical approximations to the solutions of the advection–diffusion–reaction equation that describe the concentration profiles of signaling molecules for a wide range of flow and reaction rates. These empirical relationships, which predict the distribution of dissolved solutes along pore channels, allow to quantitatively estimate the effective communication distances amongst multiple microbial aggregates without further numerical simulations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale System Modeling of Single-Event-Induced Faults in Advanced Node Processors

Integration-technology feature shrink increases computing-system susceptibility to single-event effects (SEE). While modeling SEE faults will be critical, an integrated processor’s scope makes physically correct modeling computationally intractable. Without useful models, presilicon evaluation of fault-tolerance approaches becomes impossible. To incorporate accurate transistor-level effects at a system scope, we present a multiscale simulation framework. Charge collection at the 1) device level determines 2) circuit-level transient duration and state-upset likelihood. Circuit effects, in turn, impact 3) register-transfer-level architecture-state corruption visible at 4) the system level. Furthermore, the physically accurate effects of SEEs in large-scale systems, executed on a high-performance computing (HPC) simulator, could be used to drive cross-layer radiation hardening by design. We demonstrate the capabilities of this model with two case studies. First, we determine a D flip-flop’s sensitivity at the transistor level on 14-nm FinFet technology, validating the model against published cross sections. Second, we track and estimate faults in a microprocessor without interlocked pipelined stages (MIPS) processor for Adams 90% worst case environment in an isotropic space environment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Energy Scheduling and Sensitivity Analysis for Integrated Power-Water-Heat Systems

The conventionally independent power, water, and heating networks are becoming more tightly connected, which motivates their joint optimal energy scheduling to improve the overall efficiency of an integrated energy system. However, such a joint optimization is known as a challenging problem with complex network constraints and couplings of electric, hydraulic, and thermal models that are nonlinear and nonconvex. We formulate an optimal power-water-heat flow (OPWHF) problem and develop a computationally efficient heuristic to solve it. The proposed heuristic decomposes OPWHF into subproblems, which are iteratively solved via convex relaxation and convex-concave procedure. Simulation results validate that the proposed framework can improve operational flexibility and social welfare of the integrated system, wherein the water and heating networks respond as virtual energy storage to time-varying energy prices and solar photovoltaic generation. Moreover, we perform sensitivity analysis to compare two modes of heating network control: by flow rate and by temperature. Our results reveal that the latter is more effective for heating networks with a wider space of pipeline parameters.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flow and arrest in stressed granular materials

Flowing granular materials often abruptly arrest if not driven by sufficient applied stresses. Such abrupt cessation of motion can be economically expensive in industrial materials handling and processing, and is significantly consequential in intermittent geophysical phenomena such as landslides and earthquakes. Using discrete element simulations, we calculate states of steady flow and arrest for granular materials under the conditions of constant applied pressure and shear stress, which are also most relevant in practice. Here the material can dilate or compact, and flow or arrest, in response to the applied stress. Our simulations highlight that under external stress, the intrinsic response of granular materials is characterized by uniquely-defined steady states of flow or arrest, which are highly sensitive to interparticle friction. While the flowing states can be equivalently characterized by volume fraction, coordination number or internal stress ratio, to characterize the states of shear arrest, one needs to also consider the structural anisotropy in the contact network. Here, we highlight the role of dilation in the flow-arrest transition, and discuss our findings in the context of rheological transitions in granular materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equilibrium expectations for non-Gaussian fluctuations near a QCD critical point

With the highly anticipated results from the Beam Energy Scan II program at RHIC being recently revealed, an understanding of particle-number fluctuations and their significance as a potential signature of a possible QCD critical point is crucial. Early works that embarked on this endeavor sought to estimate the fluctuations due to the presence of a critical point assuming they stay in equilibrium. From these results came the proposal to focus efforts on higher, non-Gaussian, moments of the event-by-event distributions, in particular of the number of protons. These non-Gaussian moments are especially sensitive to critical fluctuations, as their magnitudes are proportional to high powers of the critical correlation length. As the equation of state provides key input for hydrodynamical simulations of heavy-ion collisions, we estimate equilibrium fluctuations from the BEST equation of state (EoS) that includes critical features from the 3D Ising Model. In particular, the proton factorial cumulants and their dependence on non-universal mapping parameters is investigated within the BEST EoS. Furthermore, the correlation length, as a central quantity for the assessment of fluctuations in the vicinity of a critical point, is also calculated in a consistent manner with the scaling equation of state. An understanding of the equilibrium estimates of proton factorial cumulants will be useful for further comparison to estimates of out-of-equilibrium fluctuations in order to determine the magnitude of the observable fluctuations to be expected in heavyion collision experiments, in which the time spent near a critical point is short.

Karthein, Jamie M. [Massachusetts Institute of Tec↗

DOE OSTI2022

Do chaotic field lines cause fast reconnection in coronal loops?

Over the past decade, Boozer has argued that three-dimensional (3D) magnetic reconnection fundamentally differs from two-dimensional reconnection due to the fact that the separation between any pair of neighboring field lines almost always increases exponentially over distance in a 3D magnetic field. According to Boozer, this feature makes 3D field-line mapping chaotic and exponentially sensitive to small non-ideal effects; consequently, 3D reconnection can occur without intense current sheets. We test Boozer's theory via ideal and resistive reduced magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the Boozer–Elder coronal loop model driven by sub-Alfvénic footpoint motions [A. H. Boozer and T. Elder, Phys. Plasmas 28, 062303 (2021)]. In this work, our simulation results significantly differ from their predictions. The ideal simulation shows that Boozer and Elder under-predict the intensity of current density due to missing terms in their reduced model equations. Furthermore, resistive simulations of varying Lundquist numbers show that the maximal current density scales linearly rather than logarithmically with the Lundquist number.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ring currents modulate optoelectronic properties of aromatic chromophores at 25 T

The properties of organic molecules can be influenced by magnetic fields, and these magnetic field effects are diverse. They range from inducing nuclear Zeeman splitting for structural determination in NMR spectroscopy to polaron Zeeman splitting organic spintronics and organic magnetoresistance. A pervasive magnetic field effect on an aromatic molecule is the aromatic ring current, which can be thought of as an induction of a circular current of π-electrons upon the application of a magnetic field perpendicular to the π-system of the molecule. While in NMR spectroscopy the effects of ring currents on the chemical shifts of nearby protons are relatively well understood, and even predictable, the consequences of these modified electronic states on the spectroscopy of molecules has remained unknown. In this work, we find that photophysical properties of model phthalocyanine compounds and their aggregates display clear magnetic field dependences up to 25 T, with the aggregates showing more drastic magnetic field sensitivities depending on the intermolecular interactions with the amplification of ring currents in stacked aggregates. These observations are consistent with ring currents measured in NMR spectroscopy and simulated in time-dependent density functional theory calculations of magnetic field-dependent phthalocyanine monomer and dimer absorption spectra. Here, we propose that ring currents in organic semiconductors, which commonly comprise aromatic moieties, may present new opportunities for the understanding and exploitation of combined optical, electronic, and magnetic properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Magnetostrictive Ultrasonic Waveguide Transducer for In-Pile Thermometry

Real-time and reliable temperature measurement on nuclear fuels is crucial for the safe operation of existing pressurized-water reactors and future advanced nuclear reactors. Magnetostrictive materials deform when subjected to a magnetic field or exhibit magnetization variation when stressed. Here, based on these properties, this study prototyped an ultrasonic thermometer (UT) consisting of a magnetostrictive waveguide, a dc coil providing appropriate magnetic biasing, and an ac coil generating an acoustic impulse and detecting the resulting acoustic echoes. By tracking the time of flight between the excitation pulse and the echoes, the UT can potentially detect nuclear fuel cladding temperature from a long distance. In this study, magnetostrictive iron–gallium alloys, or Galfenol, were selected as the waveguide due to their large magnetostriction, superior temperature survivability, excellent radiation resilience, and high mechanical robustness. A multiphysics finite-element model considering electrical, magnetic, and mechanical dynamics in the magnetostrictive UT was then developed. The model exhibited an error of 0.24% in time-of-flight simulation and, therefore, enabled computer-aided design and guided signal processing. Between room temperature and 120 °C, the new Galfenol-based UT exhibits a linear sensitivity of 162.8×10 ₋6 °C ₋1 , which is 51.7% higher than a previous magnetostrictive UT based on iron–cobalt–vanadium alloys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Four-channel optically pumped magnetometer for a magnetoencephalography sensor array

We present a novel four-channel optically pumped magnetometer (OPM) for magnetoencephalography that utilizes a two-color pump/probe scheme on a single optical axis. We characterize its performance across 18 built sensor modules. The new sensor implements several improvements over our previously developed sensor including lower vapor-cell operating temperature, improved probe-light detection optics, and reduced optical power requirements. The sensor also has new electromagnetic field coils on the sensor head which are designed using stream-function-based current optimization. We detail the coil design methodology and present experimental characterization of the coil performance. The magnetic sensitivity of the sensor is on average 12.3 fT/rt-Hz across the 18 modules while the average gradiometrically inferred sensitivity is about 6.0 fT/rt-Hz. The sensor 3-dB bandwidth is 100 Hz on average. The on-sensor coil performance is in good agreement with the simulations.

Iivanainen, Joonas (ORCID:0000000160344604)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Economic impact and risk analysis of integrating sustainable aviation fuels into refineries

The growth of the aviation industry coupled with its dependence on energy dense, liquid fuels has brought sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) research to the forefront of the biofuels community. Petroleum refineries will need to decide how to satisfy the projected increase in jet fuel demand with either capital investments to debottleneck current operations or by integrating bio-blendstocks. This work seeks to compare jet production strategies on a risk-adjusted, economic performance basis using Monte-Carlo simulation and refinery optimization models. Additionally, incentive structures aiming to de-risk initial SAF production from the refiner’s perspective are explored. Results show that market sensitive incentives can reduce the financial risks associated with producing SAFs and deliver marginal abatement costs ranging between 136-182 $/Ton-CO2e.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Design Parameter Optimization to Improve the Sensitivity of a Bimorph Polysilicon-Based MEMS Sensor for Helium Detection

Helium is integral in several industries, including nuclear waste management and semiconductors. Thus, developing a sensing method for detecting helium is essential to ensure the proper operation of such facilities. Several approaches can be used for helium detection, including based on the high thermal conductivity of helium, which is several times higher than air. This work utilizes the high thermal conductivity of helium to design and analyze a bimorph MEMS sensor for helium sensing applications. COMSOL Multiphysics software (version 6.2) is used to carry out this investigation. The sensor is constructed from poly-silicon and SiO 2 materials with a trenched cantilever beam configuration. The sensor is electrically heated, and its morphed displacement depends on the surrounding gas’s composition, which decreases in the presence of helium. Several factors were investigated to probe their effect on the sensor’s sensitivity to helium, including the thickness of the poly-silicon layer, the configuration of the trench, and the thickness and location of SiO 2 layer. The simulations showed that the best performance, up to 2 ppm helium detection level, can be achieved with thinner beams and medium trench lengths.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USA

Abstract. Careful allotment of water resources for irrigation is critical for ensuring the resiliency of agriculture in semiarid regions, and modernizing irrigation technology to minimize inefficient water losses is an important tool for farmers and agricultural economies. While modernizing irrigation technology can achieve reductions in the nonbeneficial use of water, such as bare soil evaporation and nonconsumptive losses, water returned to the landscape is also reduced, often eliminating flow paths that other users rely on. In basins using a combination of surface and groundwater, replenishing aquifer storage by the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) of seasonally available water can mitigate the aquifer drawdown that results from reduced recharge when irrigation efficiency is improved. We examine the effects of MAR on the system-scale efficiency of modernizing irrigation technology and the resulting changes in the reuse of nonconsumptive losses, using a macroscale hydrologic model applied to the semiarid upper Snake River basin (USRB) of western Wyoming and southern Idaho, USA. Irrigation technologies were represented explicitly in the model, and available data informed baseline parameterizations of the irrigation technology. A suite of parameterizations were simulated that updated the existing technologies to be more efficient, both with and without sufficient MAR to cause a stabilization of the aquifer at the present-day head. As expected, simulated changes in irrigation technology resulted in greater downstream export of pristine water and a higher rate of aquifer drawdown when MAR was not simulated. Under current water use and cropping patterns, we were not able to simulate aquifer stabilization and maintain discharge downstream at any level of irrigation efficiency. We found support for the hypothesis that, as efficiency improves, less MAR is required to maintain a stable aquifer than when return flows are reduced due to increased efficiency. To evaluate the hypothesis, we defined the management benefit as a metric that compared the difference between the change in irrigation's net recharge and the change in MAR required as irrigation technology became more efficient. The metric generally indicated that less MAR was needed than net recharge was lost, but only for the most efficient case did the management benefit exceed the MAR needed at the baseline to stabilize the aquifer. Increasing efficiency of irrigation technology reduced the reuse of the gross irrigation derived from prior nonconsumptive losses, but simulating MAR increased reuse for a given parameterization, leading to higher effective irrigation efficiency. We find that local groundwater storage that users depend on is generally more sensitive to management decisions than downstream flows, and the drawdown of the aquifer without MAR always exceeded any decrease in discharge induced by MAR. Improving resource sufficiency in semiarid systems like the USRB will require an array of solutions that will need to balance benefits to local and downstream users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of Electron Neutrino and Antineutrino Appearance with the NO{$\nu$}A Experiment

As a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment, the NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance (NOvA) experiment aims at studying neutrino physics by measuring neutrino oscillation parameters using the neutrino flux from the Main Injector (NuMI) beam. It has two functionally identical detectors. The near detector is onsite at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The far detector is 810 km away from the source of neutrinos and antineutrinos, at Ash River, Minnesota. At the near detector, muon neutrinos or antineutrinos, before significant oscillations take place, are used to correct the Monte Carlo simulation. At the far detector, the neutrino and antineutrino fluxes after significant oscillations have happened are measured and analyzed to study neutrino oscillation. The NOvA experiment is sensitive to the values of $\sin^2{\theta_{23}}$, $\Delta m^2_{32}$, and $\delta_{CP}$. The latest values from the NOvA 2020 analysis are as follows: $\sin^2{\theta_{23}}= 0.57^{+0.03}_{-0.04}$, $\Delta m^2_{32} = (2.41 \pm 0.07)\times 10^{-3}$\,eV$^2/c^4$, and $\delta_{CP}=0.82\pi$ with a wide 1$\sigma$ interval of uncertainty. My study is focused on the neutrino oscillation analysis with NOvA, including detector light model tuning, particle classification with convolutional neural network, electron neutrino and antineutrino energy reconstruction, and oscillation background estimation. Most of my studies have been used in the latest NOvA publication and the NOvA 2020 analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Discovery of a Candidate Binary Supermassive Black Hole in a Periodic Quasar from Circumbinary Accretion Variability

Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607±7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ~10 –3 accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67–002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20-yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302–102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗