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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,495 records · Page 83
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data‐Driven Insights into Rare Earth Mineralization: Machine Learning Applications Using Functional Material Synthesis Data

Understanding rare‐earth element (REE) mineralization mechanisms is essential for developing efficient separation strategies. Although the geochemical pathways that generate REE deposits are qualitatively known, quantitative links between specific conditions and mineralization outcomes remain limited. Herein, the repurpose laboratory REE hydrothermal synthesis data—originally collected for functional‐materials fabrication—as a surrogate for studying mineralization with data‐driven methods. The compiled 1,200+ hydrothermal reaction records and trained three machine‐learning models—K‐nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB)—to predict product elements and phases from precursors, additives, reaction conditions, and engineered features. Validation shows XGB achieves the highest accuracy. Feature importance indicates thermodynamic properties of cations and anions dominate model decisions. Correlations reveal positive relationships among precursor concentration, reaction time, pH, and temperature, consistent with classical crystallization behavior. XGB‐based regressors are built to predict crystallization temperature and pH from precursor/product attributes. Performance is strongest when similar training examples exist, while accuracy declines for underrepresented reactions, notably REE carbonates and heavy‐REE systems. Overall, the study shows that functional‐materials datasets can illuminate REE mineralization and provide priors for exploration and processing. Expanding datasets with less‐studied chemistries and conditions will improve generality and support deposit discovery and more efficient REE recovery.

feature importance analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the morphology of the gamma-ray galactic centre excess

ABSTRACT The characteristics of the galactic centre excess (GCE) emission observed in gamma-ray energies – especially the morphology of the GCE – remain a hotly debated subject. The manner in which the dominant diffuse gamma-ray background is modelled has been claimed to have a determining effect on the preferred morphology. In this work, we compare two distinct approaches to the galactic diffuse gamma-ray emission background: the first approach models this emission through templates calculated from a sequence of well-defined astrophysical assumptions, while the second approach divides surrogates for the background gamma-ray emission into cylindrical galactocentric rings with free independent normalizations. At the latitudes that we focus on, we find that the former approach works better, and that the overall best fit is obtained for an astrophysically motivated fit when the GCE follows the morphology expected of dark matter annihilation. Quantitatively, the improvement compared with the best ring-based fits is roughly 6500 in the χ2 and roughly 4000 in the log of the Bayesian evidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1988

A parametric LQ approach to multiobjective control system design

The synthesis of a constant parameter output feedback control law of constrained structure is set in a multiple-objective linear quadratic regulator (MOLQR) framework. The use of intuitive objective functions such as model-following ability and closed-loop trajectory sensitivity allows multiple-objective decision-making techniques, such as the surrogate worth tradeoff method, to be applied. For the continuous-time deterministic problem with an infinite time horizon, dynamic compensators as well as static output feedback controllers can be synthesized using a descent Anderson-Moore algorithm modified to impose linear equality constraints on the feedback gains by moving in feasible directions. Results of three different examples are presented, including a unique reformulation of the sensitivity reduction problem.

Kyr, Doug↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficient Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle Concept Using Least Angle Regression

The objective of this work was to outline and apply an efficient and accurate parametric un-certainty propagation approach to the analysis of convective heating on an Earth entry vehicle concept. The described approach was based on Least Angle Regression used to solve a sparse and underdetermined linear system in the point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos surrogate method. This approach involved an iterative process to computing the non-zero terms of the underlying polynomial chaos model using only enough samples to converge uncertainty interval predictions and Sobol index values based global nonlinear sensitivity estimates. The Earth entry vehicle was analyzed at three points along a representative trajectory for a Mars return mission. 329 sources of uncertainty were identified in the computational fluid dynamics model used to predict the forebody convective heating. These included uncertainty in flow field chemical rates, collision integrals, heats of formation, surface finite rate char model reaction rates, wall roughness height, and the turbulent Schmidt number. Results from this study showed that convective heating uncertainty as high as 50% of the nominal was predicted with only about 50 evaluations of the computational model. This was far fewer than would be required for a sampling-based approach or a full basis polynomial chaos model, which would have required over 50,000 samples. Additionally, results showed that over 90% of the total convective heating uncertainty was due to uncertainty in the N2catalytic rate on the surface, while the remainder of the uncertainty was attributed to the turbulent Schmidt number and the wall roughness uncertainties.

Thomas K West IV↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced modeling and simulation of research reactors using dynamic mode decomposition

Full text of publication follows. Due to the ever-increasing safety requirements, the current trend of nuclear reactor analysis is shifting towards high-fidelity multi-physics models, which have a very high computational cost and modelling complexity. As the cost of even a single model run makes it impossible to analyse the behaviour and performance of these models on large-scale commercial plants, it has become even more significant to provide suitable benchmarks to validate and test them extensively. In this sense, research reactors offer a promising solution for the initial validation of high-fidelity models, as they are significantly smaller than commercial reactors and their characteristics are well known. In particular, the reactors of the TRIGA family have been used to assess and validate models and methods for Generation-IV designs, as they have some similar features (such as the dominance of natural convection as cooling mechanism and the difficulties in performing sub-channel analysis using standard codes). Still, the computational requirements of high-fidelity models make them unsuitable for real-time analysis, even following their assessment on research reactors. In this sense, Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques give an additional strategy to reduce the computational cost of high-fidelity models (whilst preserving sufficient accuracy). In particular, this work focuses on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD), a non-intrusive MOR technique that aims at representing models with explicit temporal dynamics by extracting the time-varying characteristics and the governing structures based only on a set of available data, thus without needing any underlying knowledge of the governing equations. In addition, DMD also computes a low-dimensional surrogate of the dynamic matrix of the system, making it suited for stability analysis and real-time evaluations. This work focuses on the application and validation of the DMD method on the Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) model TRIGA Mark II reactor, also discussing in detail the potentiality of this algorithm as an advanced modelling tool for nuclear reactor analysis. (author)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Representative Period Selection for Robust Capacity Expansion Planning in Low-carbon Grids

With the increasing urgency to decarbonize power systems, while mitigating extreme events, capacity expansion models can play a vital role in reliably planning the expansion of power systems and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. Optimizing capacity expansion generally involves selecting surrogate representative days from forecasts of load and the generation profiles of variable renewable energy resources. To properly select those representative days, we propose a novel input-based approach in combination with the k-means clustering algorithm that utilize three unique operational inputs: load shedding, renewable curtailment, and transmission congestion. The proposed method allows for more robust and cost-effective capacity planning. The method is validated using a capacity expansion model and a production cost model based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO)'s decarbonization goals, and results in reduced costs and drastically lower load shedding.

Anderson, Osten P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling–Experiment–Theory Analysis of Reactions Initiated from Cl + Methyl Formate

Methyl formate (MF; CH 3 OCHO) is the smallest representative of esters, which are common components of biodiesel. The present study characterizes the thermal dissociation kinetics of the radicals formed by H atom abstraction from MF—CH 3 OCO and CH 2 OCHO—through a combination of modeling, experiment, and theory. For the experimental effort, excimer laser photolysis of Cl 2 was used as a source of Cl atoms to initiate reactions with MF in the gas phase. Time-resolved species profiles of MF, Cl 2 , HCl, CO 2 , CH 3 , CH 3 Cl, CH 2 O, and CH 2 ClOCHO were measured and quantified using photoionization mass spectrometry at temperatures of 400–750 K and 10 Torr. The experimental data were simulated using a kinetic model, which was informed by ab initio-based theoretical kinetics calculations and included chlorine chemistry and secondary reactions of radical decomposition products. Here, we calculated the rate coefficients for the H-abstraction reactions Cl + MF → HCl + CH 3 OCO (R1a) and Cl + MF → HCl + CH 2 OCHO (R1b): k 1a,theory = 6.71 × 10 –15 ·T 1.14 ·exp(—606/T) cm 3 /molecule·s; k 1b,theory = 4.67 × 10 –18 ·T 2.21 ·exp(—245/T) cm 3 /molecule·s over T = 200–2000 K. Electronic structure calculations indicate that the barriers to CH 3 OCO and CH 2 OCHO dissociation are 13.7 and 31.6 kcal/mol and lead to CH 3 + CO 2 (R3) and CH 2 O + HCO (R5), respectively. The master equation-based theoretical rate coefficients are k 3,theory (P = ∞) = 2.94 × 10 9 ·T 1.21 ·exp(—6209/T) s –1 and k 5,theory (P = ∞) = 8.45 × 10 8 ·T 1.39 ·exp(—15132/T) s –1 over T = 300–1500 K. The calculated branching fractions into R1a and R1b and the rate coefficient for R5 were validated by modeling of the experimental species time profiles and found to be in excellent agreement with theory. Additionally, we found that the bimolecular reactions CH 2 OCHO + Cl, CH 2 OCHO + Cl 2 , and CH 3 + Cl 2 were critical to accurately model the experimental data and constrain the kinetics of MF-radicals. Inclusion of the kinetic parameters determined in this study showed a significant impact on combustion simulations of larger methyl esters, which are considered as biodiesel surrogates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling delayed thermal runaway in nitric acid-soaked cat litter mixed with radioactive waste

Thermal ignition of radioactive waste within a 55-gallon drum was simulated by using a pressure-dependent waste decomposition model (Hobbs et al. in Process Saf Environ Prot https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2022.09.047, 2022) calibrated with data from full-scale drum experiments (Parker et al. in The thermolytic response of a surrogate RNS waste mixture at the drum scale. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-16-21760, 2016) and validated with experiments from multiple laboratories (Hobbs et al. in Thermal analysis of aged nitric acid-soaked kitty litter in TRU waste drums-23370.WM2023 Conference, Phoenix, AZ, 2023). The acceleration of nitric acid chemistry reacting with an organic cat litter leading to thermal ignition was likely triggered by a restricted vent in the drum. Here, we address whether the form of the rate equation in (Hobbs et al. in Process Saf Environ Prot https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2022.09.047, 2022) is sufficient to extrapolate thermal ignition within aged drums of similar content that have been stored in Texas for over nine years by investigating four different reaction rate forms for waste decomposition. A critical reaction rate reduction analysis is performed on each of these models to determine if delayed thermal runaway within vented aged waste is possible after nine years. We found that a pressure-dependent first-order rate expression not only predicted the accidental ignition of the waste drum, but the form also matches multiple experiments from different laboratories. Even though the waste composition decreases over time, the model predicts that acceleration leading to thermal runaway is possible if the waste is confined, even after 9 years. In conclusion, waste containing oxidizers such as nitric acid should not be mixed with organic adsorbents, especially if the waste is confined.

cookoff↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Priori Analysis of a Compressible Flamelet Model using RANS Data for a Dual-Mode Scramjet Combustor

In an effort to make large eddy simulation of hydrocarbon-fueled scramjet combustors more computationally accessible using realistic chemical reaction mechanisms, a compressible flamelet/progress variable (FPV) model was proposed that extends current FPV model formulations to high-speed, compressible flows. Development of this model relied on observations garnered from an a priori analysis of the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) data obtained for the Hypersonic International Flight Research and Experimentation (HI-FiRE) dual-mode scramjet combustor. The RANS data were obtained using a reduced chemical mechanism for the combustion of a JP-7 surrogate and were validated using avail- able experimental data. These RANS data were then post-processed to obtain, in an a priori fashion, the scalar fields corresponding to an FPV-based modeling approach. In the current work, in addition to the proposed compressible flamelet model, a standard incompressible FPV model was also considered. Several candidate progress variables were investigated for their ability to recover static temperature and major and minor product species. The effects of pressure and temperature on the tabulated progress variable source term were characterized, and model coupling terms embedded in the Reynolds- averaged Navier-Stokes equations were studied. Finally, results for the novel compressible flamelet/progress variable model were presented to demonstrate the improvement attained by modeling the effects of pressure and flamelet boundary conditions on the combustion.

Quinlan, Jesse R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cool flame chemistry of diesel surrogate compounds: n -Decane, 2-methylnonane, 2,7-dimethyloctane, and n -butylcyclohexane

Elucidating the formation of combustion intermediates is crucial to validate reaction pathways, develop reaction mechanisms and examine kinetic modeling predictions. While high-temperature pyrolysis and oxidation intermediates of alkanes have been thoroughly studied, comprehensive analysis of cool flame intermediates from alkane autoxidation is lacking and challenging due to the complexity of intermediate species produced. Here, jet-stirred reactor autoxidation of four C 10 alkanes: n -decane, 2-methylnonane, 2,7-dimethyloctane, and n -butylcyclohexane, as model compounds of diesel fuel, was investigated from 500 to 630 K using synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet photoionization molecular beam mass spectrometry (SVUV-PIMS). Around 100 intermediates were detected for each fuel. The classes of molecular structures present during the autoxidation of the representative paraffinic functional groups in transport fuels, i.e., n -alkanes, branched alkanes, and cycloalkanes were established and were found to be similar from the oxidation of various alkanes. A theoretical approach was applied to estimate the photoionization cross sections of the intermediates with the same carbon skeleton as the reactants, e.g., alkene, alkenyl keto, cyclic ether, dione, keto-hydroperoxide, diketo-hydroperoxide, and keto-dihydroperoxide. These species are indicators of the first, second, and third O 2 addition reactions for the four C 10 hydrocarbons, as well as bimolecular reactions involving keto-hydroperoxides. Chemical kinetic models for the oxidation of these four fuels were examined by comparison against mole fraction of the reactants and final products obtained in additional experiments using gas chromatography analysis, as well as the detailed species pool and mole fractions of aforementioned seven types of intermediates measured by SVUV-PIMS. This works reveals that the models in the literature need to be improved, not only the prediction of the fuel reactivity and final products, but also the reaction network to predict the formation of many previous undetected intermediates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Micromechanical response of SiC-OPyC layers in TRISO fuel particles

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)–coated particle fuel is a proposed fuel for multiple advanced reactor concepts. The performance of the particle depends on whether the silicon carbide (SiC) layer remains intact to prevent the release of metallic and gaseous fission products. Mechanical fracture of the SiC layer is a potential failure mode under various fuel configurations and operating environments, including the potential transmission of matrix-originating cracks through TRISO particles. Furthermore, this study uses instrumented indentation techniques on cross-sectioned surrogate particles to examine the mechanical stability of the critical interface between SiC and the outer pyrolytic carbon (OPyC) layer. The observed behavior at the interface is rationalized by examining the radially dependent fracture behavior of the SiC layer and performing a numerical analysis to quantify the residual stresses that develop during the processing and cross-sectioning of the as-fabricated particle. Characterizing the SiC-OPyC interface of surrogate TRISO particles using nanoindentation provides unique insight into the interface's room-temperature residual stress and mechanical stability. The modeling efforts were used to investigate the experimental procedure further, and the results are presented herein to validate this fuel form's potential mechanical failure modes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving nuclear data evaluations with predictive reaction theory and indirect measurements

Nuclear reaction data required for astrophysics and applications is incomplete, as not all nuclear reactions can be measured or reliably predicted. Neutron-induced reactions involving unstable targets are particularly challenging, but often critical for simulations. In response to this need, indirect approaches, such as the surrogate reaction method, have been developed. Nuclear theory is key to extract reliable cross sections from such indirect measurements. We describe ongoing efforts to expand the theoretical capabilities that enable surrogate reaction measurements. We focus on microscopic predictions for charged-particle inelastic scattering, uncertainty-quantified optical nucleon-nucleus models, and neural-network enhanced parameter inference.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A buoyancy–shear–drag–scalar-based turbulence model for power-law acceleration-driven Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing

A previously developed phenomenological turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing based on a general buoyancy–shear–drag model [O. Schilling, “A buoyancy–shear–drag-based turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing,” Physica D 402, 132238 (2020)] is extended to include active or passive scalar mixing and power-law acceleration-driven Rayleigh–Taylor mixing. The buoyancy–shear–drag equations are coupled to a scalar variance equation that is used to define the molecular mixing parameter θ m , and when the scalar is active, modifies the Rayleigh–Taylor and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing layer growth parameters to depend on the asymptotic value of this parameter, θ mol . Here, the scalar variance equation is closed by algebraically or differentially modeling the scalar variance dissipation rate. Nonlinear analytical solutions of the model are obtained in the total and separate bubble and spike mixing layer width formulations with the algebraic scalar variance dissipation rate for each instability, which are then used to calibrate the mechanical and scalar equation coefficients to predict specific values of physical observables and molecular mixing parameters. Surrogate mechanical and scalar turbulent fields can be constructed by multiplying a presumed self-similar spatial profile by appropriate functions of the width and its time derivative, and of the scalar obtained by solving the ordinary differential model equations. The explicit modeling and solution of turbulent transport equations are not required. The bubble and spike mixing layer width and scalar variance equations are then solved numerically for constant-acceleration Rayleigh–Taylor, impulsively reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing, confirming that the prescribed level of molecular mixing is correctly predicted and illustrating the spatiotemporal evolution of the scalar fields.

Buoyancy–drag↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transformer-powered surrogates close the ICF simulation-experiment gap with extremely limited data

Abstract Recent advances in machine learning, specifically transformer architecture, have led to significant advancements in commercial domains. These powerful models have demonstrated superior capability to learn complex relationships and often generalize better to new data and problems. This paper presents a novel transformer-powered approach for enhancing prediction accuracy in multi-modal output scenarios, where sparse experimental data is supplemented with simulation data. The proposed approach integrates transformer-based architecture with a novel graph-based hyper-parameter optimization technique. The resulting system not only effectively reduces simulation bias, but also achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to the prior method. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on inertial confinement fusion experiments, where only 10 shots of real-world data are available, as well as synthetic versions of these experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person’s infectiousness

Significance Quantifying the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and individual infectiousness is important for understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evaluating intervention strategies. Here, we developed within-host models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and by fitting them to clinical data, we estimated key within-host viral dynamic parameters. We also developed a mechanistic model for viral transmission and show that the logarithm of the viral load in the upper respiratory tract serves as an appropriate surrogate for a person’s infectiousness. Using data on how viral load changes during infection, we further evaluated the effectiveness of PCR and antigen-based testing strategies for averting transmission and identifying infected individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Deuterium Oxidation in a Room with a Fire

A series of experiments where deuterium was released in trace amounts into a room with a fire were performed at Sandia National Laboratories. This report describes the corresponding effort to model the test series using SIERRA/FUEGO. The objective of this modeling effort was to produce a simulation test matrix that can be utilized to help interpret the corresponding experiments and be used to assess the credibility of using the SIERRA/FUEGO simulations as a surrogate for real tritium reaction data for mock fire and release studies. The simulations assessed multiple configurations of fire size and location and overall found that there was low conversion of deuterium to oxidized deuterium. There are some notable differences between the simulation predictions and the experimental results, such as the simulations generally predicting higher amounts of deuterium conversion compared to the experiment. A strategy to address modeling uncertainties and unknowns is also given in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin Framework for PIP-II Linac: AI-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling from Ion Source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II linac will enable >1.2 MW beam power for DUNE, requiring unprecedented operational reliability across its warm front-end (RFQ, MEBT) and five distinct SRF sections operating at 162.5/325/650 MHz. We present a comprehensive digital twin framework uniquely combining a fully differentiable fast beam transport code with neural network surrogates trained on high-fidelity PIC simulations, capturing space charge and nonlinear dynamics beyond traditional envelope codes while achieving 10⁴ speedup at <1% accuracy. End-to-end differentiability enables gradient-based optimization across 500+ parameters simultaneously previously impossible with conventional tools while the model incorporates static/dynamic errors and serves as a virtual commissioning platform for diverse hardware integration. The framework facilitates reinforcement learning for pulsed/CW mode transitions, predictive maintenance through anomaly detection, and autonomous tuning algorithm development with real-time execution capability. Validation against physics simulations shows excellent agreement for the front-end, with initial results demonstrating potential for 30% commissioning time reduction and proactive fault mitigation, providing a scalable blueprint for operating next-generation high-intensity accelerators.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin Framework for PIP-II Linac: AI-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling from Ion Source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II linac will enable >1.2 MW beam power for DUNE, requiring unprecedented operational reliability across its warm front-end (RFQ, MEBT) and five distinct SRF sections operating at 162.5/325/650 MHz. We present a comprehensive digital twin framework uniquely combining a fully differentiable fast beam transport code with neural network surrogates trained on high-fidelity PIC simulations, capturing space charge and nonlinear dynamics beyond traditional envelope codes while achieving 10⁴× speedup at <1% accuracy. End-to-end differentiability enables gradient-based optimization across 500+ parameters simultaneously—previously impossible with conventional tools—while the model incorporates static/dynamic errors and serves as a virtual commissioning platform for diverse hardware integration. The framework facilitates reinforcement learning for pulsed/CW mode transitions, predictive maintenance through anomaly detection, and autonomous tuning algorithm development with real-time execution capability. Validation against physics simulations shows excellent agreement for the front-end, with initial results demonstrating potential for 30% commissioning time reduction and proactive fault mitigation, providing a scalable blueprint for operating next-generation high-intensity accelerators.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗