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Technology Transfer and Outreach for SNL/Rochester ALPHA Project.

This report describes the next stage goals and resource needs for the joint Sandia and University of Rochester ARPA-E project. A key portion of this project is Technology Transfer and Outreach, with the goal being to help ensure that this project develops a credible method or tool that the magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) research community can use to broaden the advocacy base, to pursue a viable path to commercial fusion energy, and to develop other commercial opportunities for the associated technology. This report describes an analysis of next stage goals and resource needs as requested by Milestone 5.1.1.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

1366 Project Silicon: Reclaiming US Silicon PV Leadership

1366 Technologies’ Project Silicon addresses two of the major goals of the DOE’s PV Manufacturing Initiative Part 2 program: 1) How to reclaim a strong silicon PV manufacturing presence and; 2) How to lower the levelized cost of electricity (“LCOE”) for solar to $0.05-$0.07/kWh, enabling wide-scale U.S. market adoption. To achieve these two goals, US companies must commercialize disruptive, high-value technologies that are capable of rapid scaling, defensible from foreign competition, and suited for US manufacturing. These are the aims of 1366 Technologies Direct Wafer ™ process. The research conducted during Project Silicon led to the first industrial scaling of 1366’s Direct Wafer™ process – an innovative, US-friendly (efficient, low-labor content) manufacturing process that destroys the main cost barrier limiting silicon PV cost-reductions: the 35-year-old grand challenge of making quality wafers (40% of the cost of modules) without the cost and waste of sawing. The SunPath program made it possible for 1366 Technologies to build its demonstration factory, a key and critical step in the Company’s evolution. The demonstration factory allowed 1366 to build every step of the process flow at production size, eliminating potential risk and ensuring the success of the Company’s subsequent scaling for a 1 GW factory to be constructed in Western New York in 2016 and 2017. Moreover, the commercial viability of the Direct Wafer process and its resulting wafers were established as 1366 formed key strategic partnerships, gained entry into the $8B/year multi-Si wafer market, and installed modules featuring Direct Wafer products – the veritable proving grounds for the technology. The program also contributed to the development of three Generation 3 Direct Wafer furnaces. These furnaces are the platform for copying intelligently and preparing our supply chain – large-scale expansion will not require a bigger machine but more machines. SunPath filled the crucial development step between the original research effort in Lexington and the GW factory scheduled to be online before the end of the decade. At the conclusion of the project, it is clear that the Direct Wafer™ technology will have a dramatic impact on the entire silicon photovoltaic supply chain by effectively doubling existing silicon capacity (by reducing silicon usage by 50%) and reducing supply chain capital costs by 35%. The technology, when fully-scaled in the US, will also lead to significant job growth, with the eventual creation of 1,000 jobs in Western New York.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reedsport PB150 Deployment and Ocean Test Project

As the first utility scale wave power project in the US, the Wave Power Demonstration Project at Reedsport (OR) was planned to consist of 10 PowerBuoys (Phase II)1, located 2.5 miles off the coast. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funding under a prior DOE Grant (DE-FG36-08GO88017) along with funding from PNGC Power, an Oregon-based electric power cooperative, was utilized for the design completion, fabrication, assembly and factory testing of the first PowerBuoy for the Reedsport project. The design and fabrication of the first PowerBuoy and factory testing of the power take-off subsystem were completed, and the power take-off subsystem was successfully integrated into the spar at the fabricator’s facility in Oregon. The objectives of this follow-on grant were: advance PB150B design from TRL 5/6 to TRL 7/8; deploy a single PB150 and operate autonomously for 2 years; establish O&M costs; collect environmental information; and establish manufacturing methodologies.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Final Report for Project: Impacts of stratification and non-equilibrium winds and waves on hub-height winds

This project used a combination of turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations, single-column modeling (where turbulence is parameterized), and currently available observations to improve, assess, and develop a parameterization of the impact of non-equilibrium wave states and stratification on the buoy-observed winds to establish reliable wind data at the turbine hub-height level. Analysis of turbulence-resolving simulations and observations illuminates the non-linear coupling between the atmosphere and the undulating sea surface. This analysis guides modification of existing boundary layer parameterizations to include wave influences for upward extrapolation of surface-based observations through the turbine layer. Our surface roughness modifications account for the interaction between stratification and the effects of swell’s amplitude and wavelength as well as swell’s relative motion with respect to the mean wind direction. The single-column version of the open source Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al., 2008) serves as our platform to test our proposed planetary boundary layer parameterization modifications that account for wave effects on marine atmospheric boundary layer flows. WRF has been widely adopted for wind resource analysis and forecasting. The single column version is particularly suitable to development, analysis, and testing of new boundary layer parameterizations. We utilize WRF’s single-column version to verify and validate our proposed modifications to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization (Nakanishi and Niino, 2004). We explore the implications of our modifications for two-way coupling between WRF and wave models (e.g.,Wavewatch III). The newly implemented parameterization accounting for marine atmospheric boundary layer-wave coupling is then tested in three-dimensional WRF simulations at grid sizes near 1 km. These simulations identify the behavior of simulated winds at the wind plant scale. Overall project conclusions include; In the presence of fast-moving swell (significant wave height Hs = 6.4 m, and phase speed cp = 18 ms -1 ), the atmospheric boundary layer grows more rapidly when waves propagate opposite to the winds compared to when winds and waves are aligned. Pressure drag increases by nearly a factor of 2 relative to the turbulent stress for the extreme case where waves propagate at 180° compared to the pressure gradient forcing. Net wind speed reduces by nearly 15% at hub-height for the 180°-case compared to the 0°-case, and turbulence intensities increase by nearly a factor of 2. These impacts diminish with decreasing wave age; Stratification increases hub height wind speeds and increases the vertical shear of the mean wind across the rotor plane. Fortuitously, this stability-induced enhanced shear does not influence turbulence intensity at hub height, but does increase (decrease) turbulence intensity below (above) hub height. Increased stability also increases the wave-induced pressure stress by ~ 10%; Off the East Coast of the United States during Coupled Boundary Layers Air-Sea Transfer - Low Wind (CBLAST-Low), cases with short fetch include thin stable boundary layers with depths of only a few tens of meters. In the coastal zone, the relationship between the mean wind and the surface fiction velocity (u*(V )) is significantly related to wind direction for weak winds but is not systematically related to the air sea difference of virtual potential temperature, δθv; since waves generally propagate from the south at the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) tower, these results suggest that under weak wind conditions waves likely influence surface stress more than stratification does; and Winds and waves are frequently misaligned in the coastal zone. Stability conditions persist for long duration. Over a four year period, the Forschungsplattformen in Nord- und Ostsee Nr. 1 (FINO1) tower (a site with long fetch) primarily experienced weakly-unstable conditions, while stability at the ASIT tower (with a larger influence of offshore winds) experiences a mix of both unstable and stable conditions, where the summer months are predominantly stable. Wind-wave misalignment likely explains the large scatter in observed non-dimensional surface roughness under swell-dominated conditions. Andreas et al.’s (2012) relationship between u* and the 10-m wind speed under predicts the increased u* produced by wave-induced pressure drag produced by misaligned winds and waves. Incorporating wave-state (speed and direction) influences in parameterizations improves predictive skill. In a broad sense, these results suggest that one needs information on winds, temperature, and wave state to upscale buoy measurements to hub-height and across the rotor plane. Our parameterization of wave-state influences on surface drag has been submitted for inclusion in the next publicly available release. In combination, our project elucidates the impacts of two important physical processes (non-equilibrium wind/waves and stratification) on the atmosphere within which offshore turbines operate. This knowledge should help guide and inform manufacturers making critical decisions surrounding design criteria of future turbines to be deployed in the coastal zone. Reductions in annually averaged hub height wind speed error using our new wave-state-aware surface layer parameterization are relatively modest. However since wind turbine power production depends on the wind speed cubed, the error in estimated power production is close to 5%; which is significant and can substantially impact wind resource assessment and decision making with regards to the viability of particular location for a wind plant location. For a single 30-hour forecast, significant reductions in wind speed prediction errors can yield substantially improved wind power forecast skill, thereby mitigating costs and/or increasing revenue through improved; forecasting for maintenance operations and planning; day-ahead forecasting for power trading and resource allocation; and short-term forecasting for dispatch and grid balancing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Particulate Emissions Control using Advanced Filter Systems: Final Report for Argonne National Laboratory, Corning Inc. and Hyundai Motor Company CRADA Project

This is a 3-way CRADA project working together with Corning, Inc. and Hyundai Motor Co. (HMC). The project is to understand particulate emissions from gasoline direct-injection engines (GDI) and their physico-chemical properties. In addition, this project focuses on providing fundamental information about filtration and regeneration mechanisms occurring in gasoline particulate filter (GPF) systems. For the work, Corning provides most advanced filter substrates for GPF applications and HMC provides three-way catalyst (TWC) coating services of these filter by way of a catalyst coating company. Then, Argonne National Laboratory characterizes fundamental behaviors of filtration and regeneration processes as well as evaluated TWC functionality for the coated filters. To examine aging impacts on TWC and GPF performance, the research team evaluates gaseous and particulate emissions as well as back-pressure increase with ash loading by using an engine-oil injection system to accelerate ash loading in TWC-coated GPFs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Research Projects for Interrogations of Biological Systems: Training for the Development of Novel Radiotracers

This grant was situated at the University of Missouri to train Ph.D. scientists in radiochemistry and synthetic chemistry in conjunction with Faculty from the Interdisciplinary Plant Group, Division of Biological Sciences, the MU Research Reactor Center, Molecular Biology and the Radiopharmaceutical Sciences Institute. This project was collaborative with Brookhaven National Laboratory (Richard Ferrieri, PI). Projects for the Ph.D. candidates included novel probe development for peptides, nucleosides, small molecules or radiometals, the direct use of radiometals as probes, or nuclear techniques for analysis. The projects for the postdoctoral fellow involved synthetic chemistry for the preparation of precursors for novel tracers that will be radiolabeled with 18 F or other appropriate radionuclides. The skill sets of our team members allowed us to prepare probes with positron or single photon emitters, as well as ones that are dual-labeled (fluorescent and radiolabeled). We focused our technical advances to those that will be broadly applicable to any research field.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Great Lakes O shore Wind Project: Utility and Regional Integration Study

This project aims to identify transmission system upgrades needed to facilitate offshore wind projects as well as operational impacts of offshore generation on operation of the regional transmission system in the Great Lakes region. A simulation model of the US Eastern Interconnection was used as the test system as a case study for investigating the impact of the integration of a 1000MW offshore wind farm operating in Lake Erie into FirstEnergy/PJM service territory. The findings of this research provide recommendations on offshore wind integration scenarios, the locations of points of interconnection, wind profile modeling and simulation, and computational methods to quantify performance, along with operating changes and equipment upgrades needed to mitigate system performance issues introduced by an offshore wind project.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Annual Energy Outlook 2016 With Projections to 2040

The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016), prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040. The projections, focused on U.S. energy markets, are based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS enables EIA to make projections under alternative, internally consistent sets of assumptions. The analysis in AEO2016 focuses on the Reference case and 17 alternative cases. EIA published an Early Release version of the AEO2016 Reference case (including U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP)) and a No CPP case (excluding the CPP) in May 2016.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Demonstration Project for a Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle as Part of the Clean Energy Dialogue with Canada

The intent of the Multi-Material Lightweight Vehicle (“MMLV”) was to assess the feasibility of achieving a significant level of vehicle mass reduction, enabling engine downsizing resulting in a tangible fuel reduction and environmental benefit. The MMLV project included the development of two (2) lightweight vehicle designs, referred to as Mach-I and Mach-II MMLV variants, based on a 2013 Ford production C/D segment production vehicle (Fusion). Weight comparison, life cycle assessment and limited full vehicle testing are included in the project scope. The Mach-I vehicle variant was comprised of materials and processes that are commercially available or previously demonstrated. The 363 kg mass reduction associated with the Mach-I design enabled use of a one-liter, three-cylinder, gasoline turbocharged direct injection engine, maintaining the performance and utility of the baseline vehicle. The full MMLV project produced seven (7) MMLV Mach-I “concept vehicles” which were used for testing and evaluation. The full vehicle tests confirmed that MMLV Mach-I concept vehicle performed approximately equivalent to the baseline 2013 Ford Fusion vehicle thereby validating the design of the multi material lightweight vehicle design. The results of the Life Cycle Assessment, conducted by third party consultant, indicated that if the MMLV Mach-I design was built and operated in North America for 250,000 km (155,343 miles) it would produce significant environmental and fuel economy benefits including a 16% reduction in Global Warming Potential (GWP) and 16% reduction in Total Primary Energy (TPE). The LCA calculations estimated the combined fuel economy of 34 mpg (6.9 l/100 km) associated with the MMLV Mach-I Design compared to 28 mpg (8.4 l/100 km) for the 2013 Ford Fusion.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

FY2017 Pilot Project Plan for the Nuclear Energy Knowledge and Validation Center Initiative

To prepare for technical development of computational code validation under the Nuclear Energy Knowledge and Validation Center (NEKVAC) initiative, several meetings were held by a group of experts of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop requirements of, and formulate a structure for, a transient fuel database through leveraging existing resources. It was concluded in discussions of these meetings that a pilot project is needed to address the most fundamental issues that can generate immediate stimulus to near-future validation developments as well as long-lasting benefits to NEKVAC operation. The present project is proposed based on the consensus of these discussions. Analysis of common scenarios in code validation indicates that the incapability of acquiring satisfactory validation data is often a showstopper that must first be tackled before any confident validation developments can be carried out. Validation data are usually found scattered in different places most likely with interrelationships among the data not well documented, incomplete with information for some parameters missing, nonexistent, or unrealistic to experimentally generate. Furthermore, with very different technical backgrounds, the modeler, the experimentalist, and the knowledgebase developer that must be involved in validation data development often cannot communicate effectively without a data package template that is representative of the data structure for the information domain of interest to the desired code validation. This pilot project is proposed to use the legendary TREAT Experiments Database to provide core elements for creating an ideal validation data package. Data gaps and missing data interrelationships will be identified from these core elements. All the identified missing elements will then be filled in with experimental data if available from other existing sources or with dummy data if nonexistent. The resulting hybrid validation data package (composed of experimental and dummy data) will provide a clear and complete instance delineating the structure of the desired validation data and enabling effective communication among the modeler, the experimentalist, and the knowledgebase developer. With a good common understanding of the desired data structure by the three parties of subject matter experts, further existing data hunting will be effectively conducted, new experimental data generation will be realistically pursued, knowledgebase schema will be practically designed; and code validation will be confidently planned.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Final Report for NMBSA Project, Monika Kaden, 2016

The following pages define the objectives and results for Project 022, requested by Monika Kaden, a sculptor who maintains studios in Santa Fe. This effort was first approved in February 2016, and was completed during several different time segments spread over the year, depending on Monika’s availability. The project deliverables that are of primary use to the customer are digital data files that are to be delivered electronically. This report is a summary overview of how the project was conducted.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High Temperature Syngas Cleanup Technology Scale-up and Demonstration Project

Gasification is a technology for clean energy conversion of diverse feedstocks into a wide variety of useful products such as chemicals, fertilizers, fuels, electric power, and hydrogen. Existing technologies can be employed to clean the syngas from gasification processes to meet the demands of such applications, but they are expensive to build and operate and consume a significant fraction of overall parasitic energy requirements, thus lowering overall process efficiency. RTI International has developed a warm syngas desulfurization process (WDP) utilizing a transport-bed reactor design and a proprietary attrition-resistant, high-capacity solid sorbent with excellent performance replicated at lab, bench, and pilot scales. Results indicated that WDP technology can improve both efficiency and cost of gasification plants. The WDP technology achieved ~99.9% removal of total sulfur (as either H 2 S or COS) from coal-derived syngas at temperatures as high as 600°C and over a wide range of pressures (20-80 bar, pressure independent performance) and sulfur concentrations. Based on the success of these tests, RTI negotiated a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy for precommercial testing of this technology at Tampa Electric Company’s Polk Power Station IGCC facility in Tampa, Florida. The project scope also included a sweet water-gas-shift process for hydrogen enrichment and an activated amine process for 90+% total carbon capture. Because the activated amine process provides some additional non-selective sulfur removal, the integration of these processes was expected to reduce overall sulfur in the syngas to sub-ppmv concentrations, suitable for most syngas applications. The overall objective of this project was to mitigate the technical risks associated with the scale up and integration of the WDP and carbon dioxide capture technologies, enabling subsequent commercial-scale demonstration. The warm syngas cleanup pre-commercial test unit was designed and constructed on schedule and under budget and was operated for approximately 1,500 total hours utilizing ~20% of the IGCC’s total syngas as feed (~1.5 MM scfh of dry syngas). The WDP system reduced total sulfur levels to ~10 ppmv (~99.9% removal) from raw syngas that contained as high as 14,000 ppmv of total sulfur. The integration of WDP with the activated amine process enabled further reduction of total sulfur in the final treated syngas to the anticipated sub-ppmv concentrations (>99.99% removal), suitable for stringent syngas applications such as chemicals, fertilizers, and fuels. Techno-economic assessments by RTI and by third parties indicate potential for significant (up to 50%) capital and operating cost reductions for the entire syngas cleanup block when WDP technology is integrated with a broad spectrum of conventional and emerging carbon capture or acid gas removal technologies. This final scientific/technical report covers the pre-FEED, FEED, EPC, commissioning, and operation phases of this project, as well as system performance results. In addition, the report addresses other parallel-funded R&D efforts focused on development and testing of trace contaminant removal process (TCRP) sorbents, a direct sulfur recovery process (DSRP), and a novel sorbent for warm carbon dioxide capture, as well as pre-FEED, FEED, and techno-economic studies to consider the potential benefit for use of WDP for polygeneration of electric power and ammonia/urea fertilizers.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Measuring radiation damage dynamics by pulsed ion beam irradiation: 2016 project annual report

The major goal of this project is to develop and demonstrate a novel experimental approach to access the dynamic regime of radiation damage formation in nuclear materials. In particular, the project exploits a pulsed-ion-beam method in order to gain insight into defect interaction dynamics by measuring effective defect interaction time constants and defect diffusion lengths. For Year 3, this project had the following two major milestones: (i) the demonstration of the measurement of thermally activated defect-interaction processes by pulsed ion beam techniques and (ii) the demonstration of alternative characterization techniques to study defect dynamics. As we describe below, both of these milestones have been met.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Bio Diesel Cellulosic Ethanol Research Project

The objective of the project is to create the Hendry County Sustainable Biofuels Center and initiate its research, development, and education programs. The mission is to develop engineering and economic assessment methods to evaluate the natural resources impacts of biomass farming and fuel conversion systems; provide sustainability assessments of specific biofuels productions proposals; develop biomass farming and fuel conversion systems that are compatible with south Florida ecosystem restoration priorities; create ecosystem services opportunities and structures to diversify farm income; monitor the range of research and development activities necessary to the creation of sutstainable biofuels production systems in south Florida, identify gaps in the regional research, and assist in the development and coordination of additional projects to fill out the required knowledge base; prepare the workforce of southwest Florida for employment in biofuels related professions; and assist businesses & governmental design and realize sustainable biofuels projects.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Ceramic Coatings for Clad (The C 3 Project): Advanced Accident-Tolerant Ceramic Coatings for Zr-Alloy Cladding

The goal of this NEUP-IRP project is to develop a fuel concept based on an advanced ceramic coating for Zr-alloy cladding. The coated cladding must exhibit demonstrably improved performance compared to conventional Zr-alloy clad in the following respects: During normal service, the ceramic coating should decrease cladding oxidation and hydrogen pickup (the latter leads to hydriding and embrittlement). During a reactor transient (e.g., a loss of coolant accident), the ceramic coating must minimize or at least significantly delay oxidation of the Zr-alloy cladding, thus reducing the amount of hydrogen generated and the oxygen ingress into the cladding. The specific objectives of this project are as follows: To produce durable ceramic coatings on Zr-alloy clad using two possible routes: (i) MAX phase ceramic coatings or similar nitride or carbide coatings; and (ii) graded interface architecture (multilayer) ceramic coatings, using, for instance, an oxide such as yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) as the outer protective layer. To characterize the structural and physical properties of the coated clad samples produced in 1. above, especially the corrosion properties under simulated normal and transient reactor operating conditions. To perform computational analyses to assess the effects of such coatings on fuel performance and reactor neutronics, and to perform fuel cycle analyses to assess the economic viability of modifying conventional Zr-alloy cladding with ceramic coatings. This project meets a number of the goals outlined in the NEUP-IRP call for proposals, including: Improve the fuel/cladding system through innovative designs (e.g. coatings/liners for zirconium-based cladding) Reduce or eliminate hydrogen generation Increase resistance to bulk steam oxidation Achievement of our goals and objectives, as defined above, will lead to safer light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear fuel assemblies, due to improved cladding properties and built-in accident resistance, as well as the possibilities for enhanced fuel/clad system performance and longevity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tehachapi Wind Energy Storage Project - Technology Performance Report #3

The TSP is located at SCE’s Monolith Substation in Tehachapi, California. The 8 MW, 4 hours (32 MWh) BESS is housed in a 6,300 square foot facility and 2 x 4 MW/4.5 MVA smart inverters are on a concrete pad adjacent to the BESS facility. The project will evaluate the capabilities of the BESS to improve grid performance and assist in the integration of large-scale intermittent generation, e.g., wind. Project performance was measured by 13 specific operational uses: providing voltage support and grid stabilization, decreasing transmission losses, diminishing congestion, increasing system reliability, deferring transmission investment, optimizing renewable-related transmission, providing system capacity and resources adequacy, integrating renewable energy (smoothing), shifting wind generation output, frequency regulation, spin/non-spin replacement reserves, ramp management, and energy price arbitrage. Most of the operations either shift other generation resources to meet peak load and other electricity system needs with stored electricity, or resolve grid stability and capacity concerns that result from the interconnection of intermittent generation. SCE also demonstrated the ability of lithium ion battery storage to provide nearly instantaneous maximum capacity for supply-side ramp rate control to minimize the need for fossil fuel-powered back-up generation. The project began in October, 2010 and will continue through December, 2016.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Review of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Smart Grid Projects and Their Implications for China

The Chinese government has paid growing attention to renewable energy development and has set ambitious goals for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction and energy savings. Smart grid (SG) technologies have been regarded as emerging ways to integrate renewable energy and to help achieve these climate and energy goals. This report first reviews completed SG demonstrations under the U.S. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA); especially two key programs: the SG Investment Grant (SGIG) and the SG Demonstration Project (SGDP). Under the SGIG, the larger of the two programs, over $3.4 billion was used to help industry deploy existing advanced SG technologies and tools to improve grid performance and reduce costs. Including industry investment, a total of $8 billion was spent on 99 cost-shared projects, which involved more than 200 participating electric utilities and other organizations. These projects aimed to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cyber security, improve interoperability, and collect comprehensive data on SG operations and benefits.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Air Pollutant Emissions Projections for the Cement and Steel Industry in China and the Impact of Emissions Control Technologies

China’s cement and steel industry accounts for approximately half of the world’s total cement and steel production. These two industries are two of the most energy-intensive and highest carbon dioxide (CO 2 )-emitting industries and two of the key industrial contributors to air pollution in China. For example, the cement industry is the largest source of particulate matter (PM) emissions in China, accounting for 40 percent of its industrial PM emissions and 27 percent of its total national PM emissions. The Chinese steel industry contributed to approximately 20 percent of sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions and 27 percent of PM emissions for all key manufacturing industries in China in 2013. In this study, we analyzed and projected the total PM and SO 2 emissions from the Chinese cement and steel industry from 2010–2050 under three different scenarios: a Base Case scenario, an Advanced scenario, and an Advanced EOP (end-of-pipe) scenario. We used bottom-up emissions control technologies data and assumptions to project the emissions. In addition, we conducted an economic analysis to estimate the cost for PM emissions reductions in the Chinese cement industry using EOP control technologies, energy efficiency measures, and product change measures. The results of the emissions projection showed that there is not a substantial difference in PM emissions between the Base Case and Advanced scenarios, for both the cement and steel industries. This is mainly because PM emissions in the cement industry caused mainly by production process and not the fuel use. Since our forecast for the cement production in the Base Case and Advanced scenarios are not too different from each other, this results in only a slight difference in PM emissions forecast for these two scenarios. Also, we assumed a similar share and penetration rate of control technologies from 2010 up to 2050 for these two scenarios for the cement and steel industry. However, the Advanced EOP scenario showed significantly lower PM emissions for the cement industry, reaching to 1.7 million tons of PM in 2050, which is less than half of that in the other two scenarios. The Advanced EOP scenario also has the lowest SO 2 emissions for the cement industry in China, reaching to 212,000 tons of SO 2 in 2050, which is equal to 40 percent of the SO 2 emissions in the Advanced scenario and 30 percent of the emissions in the Base Case scenario. The SO 2 emission is mainly caused by fuel (coal) burning in cement kiln or steel processes. For the steel industry, the SO 2 emissions of the Advanced EOP scenario are significantly lower than the other scenarios, with emissions declining to 323,000 tons in 2050, which is equal to 21 percent and 17 percent of the emissions of Advanced and Base Case scenarios in 2050, respectively. Results of the economic analysis show that for the Chinese cement industry, end-of-pipe PM control technologies have the lowest abatement cost per ton of PM reduced, followed by product change measures and energy efficiency measures, respectively. In summary, in order to meet Chinese national and regional air quality standards, best practice end-of-pipe emissions control technologies must be installed in both cement and steel industry and it must be supplemented by implementation of energy efficiency technologies and reduction of cement and steel production through structural change in industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗