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NASA NTRS2021

The Prevalence of Precipitation From Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets, but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ∼−38 ∘C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. The results here also demonstrate that the observed abundance of mixed-phase clouds can vary substantially with instrument sensitivity and methodology. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Supercooled clouds↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cold-Season Precipitation Sensitivity to Microphysical Parameterizations: Hydrologic Evaluations Leveraging Snow Lidar Datasets

Abstract Cloud microphysical processes are an important facet of atmospheric modeling, as they can control the initiation and rates of snowfall. Thus, parameterizations of these processes have important implications for modeling seasonal snow accumulation. We conduct experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF V4.3.3) Model using three different microphysics parameterizations, including a sophisticated new scheme (ISHMAEL). Simulations are conducted for two cold seasons (2018 and 2019) centered on the Colorado Rockies’ ∼750-km 2 East River watershed. Precipitation efficiencies are quantified using a drying-ratio mass budget approach and point evaluations are performed against three NRCS SNOTEL stations. Precipitation and meteorological outputs from each are used to force a land surface model (Noah-MP) so that peak snow accumulation can be compared against airborne snow lidar products. We find that microphysical parameterization choice alone has a modest impact on total precipitation on the order of ±3% watershed-wide, and as high as 15% for certain regions, similar to other studies comparing the same parameterizations. Precipitation biases evaluated against SNOTEL are 15% ± 13%. WRF Noah-MP configurations produced snow water equivalents with good correlations with airborne lidar products at a 1-km spatial resolution: Pearson’s r values of 0.9, RMSEs between 8 and 17 cm, and percent biases of 3%–15%. Noah-MP with precipitation from the PRISM geostatistical precipitation product leads to a peak SWE underestimation of 32% in both years examined, and a weaker spatial correlation than the WRF configurations. We fall short of identifying a clearly superior microphysical parameterization but conclude that snow lidar is a valuable nontraditional indicator of model performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Turato, Barbara↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Evaporation and their Relations with Precipitation, Net Radiation, and Net Carbon Accumulation for the Gediz Basin Area

A model combining the rate of carbon assimilation with water and energy balance equations has been run using satellite and ancillary data for a period of 60 months (January 1986 to December 1990). Calculations for the Gediz basin area give mean annual evaporation as 395 mm, which is composed of 45% transpiration, 42% soil evaporation and 13% interception. The coefficient of interannual variation of evaporation is found to be 6%, while that for precipitation and net radiation are, respectively, 16% and 2%, illustrating that net radiation has an important effect in modulating interannual variation of evaporation. The mean annual water use efficiency (i.e., the ratio of net carbon accumulation and total evaporation) is ca. 1 g/sq m/mm, and has a coefficient of interannual variation of 5%. A comparison of the mean water use efficiency with field observations suggests that evaporation over the area is utilized well for biomass production. The reference crop evaporation for irrigated areas has annual mean and coefficient of variation as, respectively, 1176 mm and 3%. The total evaporation during three summer months of peak evaporation (June-August) is estimated to be about 575 mm for irrigated crops like maize and cotton. Seasonal variations of the fluxes are presented.

Choudhury, Bhaskar J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainties in Simulating Flooding During Hurricane Harvey Using 2D Shallow Water Equations

Abstract Flooding is one of the most impactful weather‐related natural hazards. Numerical models that solve the two dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE) represent the first‐principles approach to simulate all types of spatial flooding, such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding, and their compound dynamics. High spatial resolution (e.g., () m) is needed in 2D SWE simulations to capture flood dynamics accurately, resulting in formidable computational challenges. Thus, relatively coarser spatial resolutions are used for large‐scale simulations of flooding, which introduce uncertainties in the results. It is unclear how the uncertainty associated with the model resolution compares to the uncertainties in precipitation data sets and assumptions regarding boundary conditions when channelized flows interact with other water bodies. In this study, we compare these three sources of uncertainties in 2D SWE simulations for the 2017 Houston flooding event. Our results show that precipitation uncertainty and mesh resolution have more significant impacts on the simulated streamflow and inundation dynamics than the choice of the downstream boundary condition at the watershed outlet. We point out the viability to confine the uncertainty of coarsening mesh resolution by using the variable resolution mesh (VRM) which refines critical topographic features with far fewer grid cells. Specifically, in simulations with VRM, the simulated inundation depths over the refined region are comparable to that use the finest uniform mesh. This study contributes to understanding the challenges and pathways for applying 2D SWE models to improve the realism of flood simulations over large scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate-Induced Mortality of Spruce Stands in Belarus

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

spruce decline↗
NASA NTRS2008

To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach

Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.

Bounoua, L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Warming, Increase in Precipitation, and Irrigation Enhance Greening in High Mountain Asia

High-Mountain Asia (HMA) exhibits one of the highest increases in vegetation greenness on Earth, subsequently influencing the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Given the strong interactions between the hydrosphere, the biosphere, and the cryosphere, understanding the drivers of greening in this highly complex region with significant land cover heterogeneity is essential to assess the changes in the regional water budget. Here we perform a holistic multivariate remote sensing analysis to simultaneously examine the primary components of the terrestrial water cycle from 2003 to 2020 and decipher the principal drivers of greening in HMA. We identified three drivers of greening: (1) precipitation drives greening in mid and low elevation areas covered by evergreen and mixed forests (e.g., Irrawaddy basin), (2) decreases in snow enhance greening in most of the hydrologic basins, and (3) irrigation induces greening in irrigated lands (Ganges-Brahmaputra and Indus).

Fadji Zaouna Maina↗
DOE OSTI2019

Irrigation Impact on Water and Energy Cycle During Dry Years Over the United States Using Convection-Permitting WRF and a Dynamical Recycling Model

In this research, an irrigation scheme is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate irrigation impacts over the Continental U.S. (CONUS). Four major irrigated regions and two downwind regions were chosen to understand irrigation impacts over different climate regimes with a focus on irrigation-induced changes on the water and energy cycles. The Dynamic Recycling Model (DRM) is employed to quantify precipitation induced by irrigation and the precipitation recycling ratios over each irrigated region. With the irrigation scheme, WRF improves the simulated precipitation, surface skin temperature, and energy fluxes compared to reference datasets. For the energy cycle, irrigation increases latent heat flux over the irrigated regions along with reduced sensible heat flux. The evaporative cooling effect induced by irrigation leads to a cooler surface and less outgoing longwave radiation at the surface. Irrigation also intensifies the hydrological cycle over the irrigated regions, reflected by the increased precipitation, evapotranspiration, recycling ratio, and moisture export. Downwind regions exhibit increased precipitation and evaporation, decreased moisture flux divergence, and less consistent variations in recycling ratio. The precipitation increases over the irrigated regions can be partly explained by the more unstable low-level conditions, while reduced net moisture export is coincident with the precipitation increases over the downwind regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected runoff declines from plant physiological effects on precipitation

Abstract The impact of plants on runoff under high atmospheric CO 2 is a major uncertainty for future water resources. Theory and Earth system models (ESMs) suggest that stricter plant stomatal regulation under high CO 2 will reduce transpiration, potentially boosting runoff. Yet, across a 12-member ensemble of idealized ESM simulations that isolate plant responses to CO 2 , we show that lower transpiration robustly enhances runoff over only 5% of modelled global land area. Precipitation changes are five times more important than transpiration changes in driving runoff responses and are a significant signal of CO 2 physiological forcing over 31–57% of land areas across models. Crucially, ESMs largely disagree on where physiologically forced precipitation changes occur but agree that plant responses in most locations are as likely to reduce runoff as increase it. These results imply that large model uncertainties in precipitation responses, rather than transpiration responses, explain why ESMs disagree on plant physiologically driven runoff changes.

Lesk, Corey S. (ORCID:0000000308684040)↗
NASA NTRS2008

Gusev Crater on Mars: Wet and Dry

The Mars Exploration Rover Spirit has traversed over 7.5 km in 1470 sols of operations at the Gusev Crater landing site. Chemical and mineralogical evidence from approximately 200 in-situ samples indicate various degrees of exposure to liquid water, from wet and saturated to dry and unaltered. (1) Six samples with concentrations of amorphous silica between 60 and 95 wt% were discovered in a small valley less than 50 meters in length. Associated enrichments in titanium oxide, relatively insoluble at low pH, suggest that these silica deposits formed as a result of acidic leaching processes. Liquid water interactions with these surface materials were necessary to remove cations solubilized in the low pH environment or to concentrate silica in solution prior to precipitation. (2) Hydrated ferric sulfates are found in subsurface deposits which have the unmistakable chemical signatures of nearby rocks. The movement of hydrothermal fluids and/or fumarolic vapors through local rocks prior to precipitation of these materials is suggested by these observations. (3) Goethite (alpha-FeOOH), a mineral phase which requires water to form, represents 20% to 35% of the iron in numerous rock samples (Clovis Class) on the West Spur of the Columbia Hills. Alteration of iron under aqueous conditions is clearly indicated by this presence of goethite. (4) Nearly isochemical signatures are found in elemental analyses of over ten distinct samples (Wishstone/Watchtower class rocks), yet the ratio of ferric iron to total iron varies from 0.4 to 0.95. Small quantities of water, insufficient to flush cations from the samples, were likely responsible for this weathering. (5) Bromine, a trace element readily mobilized by water, is found in high concentrations in certain rock interiors and is enhanced in subsurface soils, consistent with transport to localized cold traps by water thin-films. (6) Also relevant to the characterizing the role of liquid water is the discovery of an areally extensive ultramafic sequence of rocks where over 70% of the iron is in unaltered olivine and the ferric to total iron ratio is 0.1. This result indicates that certain materials at the martian surface have been protected from aqueous alteration.

Yen, Albert↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗
DOE OSTI2026

Record-Breaking Atmospheric River Drives April 2024 Extreme Precipitation in the United Arab Emirates and the Surrounding Gulf Region

In mid-April 2024, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the surrounding Gulf region experienced unprecedented rainfall and catastrophic flooding, causing widespread damage, loss of life, and significant economic costs. During the 3-day period from 15 to 17 April, rainfall in the UAE exceeded 100 mm in the hardest-hit areas, with more than 170% of the typical annual precipitation recorded in just 72 h. The event was associated with exceptionally strong integrated water vapor transport (IVT), driven by a persistent low pressure system and a focused corridor of moisture transport. This environment, combined with favorable dynamical and convective conditions, triggered intense thunderstorms and widespread flooding. This article examines the role of an atmospheric river (AR) in the April 2024 extreme precipitation event, emphasizing the contribution of extreme IVT to preconditioning and amplifying the heavy rainfall. While this event has previously been described primarily in terms of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and potential vorticity (PV) streamers, here we document and illustrate its close relationship to a record-breaking moisture transport corridor. This AR-based perspective highlights how large-scale moisture-transport frameworks can complement synoptic and mesoscale analyses in understanding extreme rainfall in arid and semiarid regions such as the UAE and the Gulf. The event serves as a stark example of the vulnerabilities faced by arid regions, where atmospheric conditions conducive to extreme flooding may become more frequent in the future.

Massoud, Elias [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000217725361)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Selectivity of Electrochemical Ion Insertion into Manganese Dioxide Polymorphs

The ion insertion redox chemistry of manganese dioxide has diverse applications in energy storage, catalysis, and chemical separations. Unique properties derive from the assembly of Mn–O octahedra into polymorphic structures that can host protons and nonprotonic cations in interstitial sites. Despite many reports on individual ion-polymorph couples, much less is known about the selectivity of electrochemical ion insertion in MnO 2 . In this work, we use density functional theory to holistically compare the electrochemistry of A x MnO 2 (where A = H + , Li + , Na + , K + , Mg 2+ , Ca 2+ , Zn 2+ , Al 3+ ) in aqueous and nonaqueous electrolytes. We develop an efficient computational scheme demonstrating that Hubbard-U correction has a greater impact on calculating accurate redox energetics than choice of exchange-correlation functional. Using PBE+U, we find that for nonprotonic cations, ion selectivity depends on the oxygen coordination environments inside a polymorph. When H + is present, however, the driving force to form hydroxyl bonds is usually stronger. In aqueous electrolytes, only three ion-polymorph pairs are thermodynamically stable within water’s voltage stability window (Na + and K + in α-MnO 2 , and Li + in λ-MnO 2 ), with all other ion insertion being metastable. We find Al 3+ may insert into the δ, R, and λ polymorphs across the full 2-electron redox of MnO 2 at high voltage; however, electrolytes for multivalent ions must be designed to impede the formation of insoluble precipitates and facilitate cation desolvation. We also show that small ions coinsert with water in α-MnO 2 to achieve greater coordination by oxygen, while solvation energies and kinetic effects dictate water coinsertion in δ-MnO 2 . Finally, taken together, these findings explain reports of mixed ion insertion mechanisms in aqueous electrolytes and highlight promising design strategies for safe, high energy density electrochemical energy storage, desalination batteries, and electrocatalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2007

Improving Land-Surface Model Hydrology: Is an Explicit Aquifer Model Better than a Deeper Soil Profile?

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the storage and movement of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) after it falls to the ground as precipitation. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available information, including satellite observations, using powerful computers, in order to track water storage and redistribution. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. Recently, the models have begun to simulate groundwater storage. In this paper, we compare several possible approaches, and examine the pitfalls associated with trying to estimate aquifer parameters (such as porosity) that are required by the models. We find that explicit representation of groundwater, as opposed to the addition of deeper soil layers, considerably decreases the sensitivity of modeled terrestrial water storage to aquifer parameter choices. We also show that approximate knowledge of parameter values is not sufficient to guarantee realistic model performance: because interaction among parameters is significant, they must be prescribed as a harmonious set.

Gulden, L. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shifting groundwater fluxes in bedrock fractures: Evidence from stream water radon and water isotopes

Geologic features (e.g., fractures and alluvial fans) can play an important role in the locations and volumes of groundwater discharge and degree of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions. However, the role of these features in controlling GW-SW dynamics and streamflow generation processes are not well constrained. GW-SW interactions and streamflow generation processes are further complicated by variability in precipitation inputs from summer and fall monsoon rains, as well as declines in snowpack and changing melt dynamics driven by warming temperatures. Using high spatial and temporal resolution radon and water stable isotope sampling and a 1D groundwater flux model, we evaluated how groundwater contributions and GW-SW interactions varied along a stream reach impacted by fractures (fractured-zone) and below the fractured hillslope (non-fractured zone) in Coal Creek, a Colorado River headwater stream affected by summer monsoons. During early summer, groundwater contributions from the fractured zone dominated, but declined throughout the summer. Groundwater contributions from the non-fractured zone were constant throughout the summer and became proportionally more important later in the summer. We hypothesize that groundwater in the non-fractured zone is dominantly sourced from a high-storage alluvial fan at the base of a tributary that is connected to Coal Creek throughout the summer and provides consistent groundwater influx. Water isotope data revealed that Coal Creek responds quickly to incoming precipitation early in the summer, and summer precipitation becomes more important for streamflow generation later in the summer. We quantified the change in catchment dynamic storage and found it negatively related to stream water isotope values, and positively related to modeled groundwater discharge and the ratio of fractured zone to non-fractured zone groundwater. Importantly, we interpret these relationships as declining hydrologic connectivity throughout the summer leading to late summer streamflow supported predominantly by shallow flow paths, with variable response to drying from geologic features based on their storage. As groundwater becomes more important for sustaining summer flows, quantifying local geologic controls on groundwater inputs and their response to variable moisture conditions may become critical for accurate predictions of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

risk↗