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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV

As with the previous year, the past year of this award has been productive and a number of important results and refereed publications either submitted or published. Some of our research results are discussed here and a list the papers submitted or published in the past year is provided. Besides our original model of an outer heliosheath source for the IBEX "ribbon" we have continued to explore alternative possibilities and further our understanding of this very complex region, especially in light of the possibility raised by the IBEX results that suggest the possibility of a 1-shock model.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

Saha, Bhaskar↗

A Comparison of Tropical Storm (TS) and Non-TS Gust Factors for Assessing Peak Wind Probabilities at the Eastern Range

Knowledge of peak wind speeds is important to the safety of personnel and flight hardware at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), but they are more difficult to forecast than mean wind speeds. Development of a reliable model for the gust factor (GF) relating the peak to the mean wind speed motivated a previous study of GF in tropical storms. The same motivation inspired a climatological study of non-TS peak wind speed statistics without the use of GF. Both studies presented their respective statistics as functions of mean wind speed and height. The few comparisons of IS and non-TS GF in the literature suggest that the non-TS GF at a given height and mean wind speed are smaller than the corresponding TS GF. The investigation reported here converted the non-TS peak wind statistics mentioned above to the equivalent GF statistics and compared the results with the previous TS GF results. The advantage of this effort over all previously reported studies of its kind is that the TS and non-TS data are taken from the same towers in the same locations. That eliminates differing surface attributes, including roughness length and thermal properties, as a major source of variance in the comparison. The results are consistent with the literature, but include much more detailed, quantitative information on the nature of the relationship between TS and non-TS GF as a function of height and mean wind speed. In addition, the data suggest the possibility of providing an operational model for non-TS GF as a function of height and wind speed in a manner similar to the one previously developed for TS GF.

Merceret, Francis J.↗

Final Reports of the Stardust ISPE: Seven Probable Interstellar Dust Particles

The Stardust spacecraft carried the first spaceborne collector specifically designed to capture and return a sample of contemporary interstellar dust to terrestrial laboratories for analysis [1]. The collector was exposed to the interstellar dust stream in two periods in 2000 and 2002 with a total exposure of approximately 1.8 10(exp 6) square meters sec. Approximately 85% of the collector consisted of aerogel, and the remainder consisted of Al foils. The Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination (ISPE) was a consortiumbased effort to characterize the collection in sufficient detail to enable future investigators to make informed sample requests. Among the questions to be answered were these: How many impacts are consistent in their characteristics with interstellar dust, with interplanetary dust, and with secondary ejecta from impacts on the spacecraft? Are the materials amorphous or crystalline? Are organics detectable? An additional goal of the ISPE was to develop or refine the techniques for preparation, analysis, and curation of these tiny samples, expected to be approximately 1 picogram or smaller, roughly three orders of magnitude smaller in mass than the samples in other small particle collections in NASA's collections - the cometary samples returned by Stardust, and the collection of Interplanetary Dust Particles collected in the stratosphere.

Allen, Carlton↗

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

continous descent arrivals↗

Coordinated Microanalyses of Seven Particles of Probable Interstellar Origin from the Stardust Mission

Stardust, a NASA Discovery-class mission, was the first sample-return mission to return solid samples from beyond the Moon. Stardust was effectively two missions in one spacecraft: it returned the first materials from a known primitive solar system body, the Jupiter-family comet Wild 2; Stardust also returned a collector that was exposed to the contemporary interstellar dust stream for 200 days during the interplanetary cruise. Both collections present severe technical challenges in sample preparation and in analysis. By far the largest collection is the cometary one: approximately 300 micro g of material was returned from Wild 2, mostly consisting of approx. 1 ng particles embedded in aerogel or captured as residues in craters on aluminum foils. Because of their relatively large size, identification of the impacts of cometary particles in the collection media is straightforward. Reliable techniques have been developed for the extraction of these particles from aerogel. Coordinated analyses are also relatively straightforward, often beginning with synchrotron-based x-ray fluorescence (S-XRF), X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Spectoscopy (XANES) and x-ray diffraction (S-XRD) analyses of particles while still embedded in small extracted wedges of aerogel called ``keystones'', followed by ultramicrotomy and TEM, Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy (STXM) and ion microprobe analyses (e.g., Ogliore et al., 2010). Impacts in foils can be readily analyzed by SEM-EDX, and TEM analysis after FIB liftout sample preparation. In contrast, the interstellar dust collection is vastly more challenging. The sample size is approximately six orders of magnitude smaller in total mass. The largest particles are only a few pg in mass, of which there may be only approx.10 in the entire collection. The technical challenges, however, are matched by the scientific importance of the collection. We formed a consortium carry out the Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination (ISPE) to carry out an assessment of this collection, partly in order to characterize the collection in sufficient detail so that future investigators could make well-informed sample requests. The ISPE is the sixth PE on extraterrestrial collections carried out with NASA support. Some of the basic questions that we asked were: how many impacts are there in the collector, and what fraction of them have characteristics consistent with extraterrestrial materials? What is the elemental composition of the rock-forming elements? Is there crystalline material? Are there organics? Here we present coordinated microanalyses of particles captured in aerogel, using S-FTIR, S-XRF, STXM, S-XRD; and coordinated microanalyses of residues in aluminum foil, using SEMEDX, Auger spectroscopy, STEM, and ion microprobe. We discuss a novel approach that we employed for identification of tracks in aerogel, and new sample preparation techniques developed during the ISPE. We have identified seven particles - three in aerogel and four in foils - that are most consistent with an interstellar origin. The seven particles exhibit a large diversity in elemental composition. Dynamical evidence, supported supported by laboratory simulations of interstellar dust impacts in aerogel and foils, and numerical modeling of interstellar dust propagation in the heliosphere, suggests that at least some of the particles have high optical cross-section, perhaps due to an aggregate structure. However, the observations are most consistent with a variety of morphologies

Westphal, Andrew J.↗

Presolar Materials in a Giant Cluster IDP of Probable Cometary Origin

Chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles (CP-IDPs) have been linked to comets by their fragile structure, primitive mineralogy, dynamics, and abundant interstellar materials. But differences have emerged between 'cometary' CP-IDPs and comet 81P/Wild 2 Stardust Mission samples. Particles resembling Ca-Al-rich inclusions (CAIs), chondrules, and amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs) in Wild 2 samples are rare in CP-IDPs. Unlike IDPs, presolar materials are scarce in Wild 2 samples. These differences may be due to selection effects, such as destruction of fine grained (presolar) components during the 6 km/s aerogel impact collection of Wild 2 samples. Large refractory grains observed in Wild 2 samples are also unlikely to be found in most (less than 30 micrometers) IDPs. Presolar materials provide a measure of primitive-ness of meteorites and IDPs. Organic matter in IDPs and chondrites shows H and N isotopic anomalies attributed to low-T interstellar or protosolar disk chemistry, where the largest anomalies occur in the most primitive samples. Presolar silicates are abundant in meteorites with low levels of aqueous alteration (Acfer 094 approximately 200 ppm) and scarce in altered chondrites (e.g. Semarkona approximately 20 ppm). Presolar silicates in minimally altered CP-IDPs range from approximately 400 ppm to 15,000 ppm, possibly reflecting variable levels of destruction in the solar nebula or statistical variations due to small sample sizes. Here we present preliminary isotopic and mineralogical studies of a very large CP-IDP. The goals of this study are to more accurately determine the abundances of presolar components of CP-IDP material for comparison with comet Wild 2 samples and meteorites. The large mass of this IDP presents a unique opportunity to accurately determine the abundance of pre-solar grains in a likely cometary sample.

Messenger, S.↗

Applying Flammability Limit Probabilities and the Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure Concept to NASA STD-6001 Test 1

Repeated Test 1 extinction tests near the upward flammability limit are expected to follow a Poisson process trend. This Poisson process trend suggests that rather than define a ULOI and MOC (which requires two limits to be determined), it might be better to define a single upward limit as being where 1/e (where e (approx. equal to 2.7183) is the characteristic time of the normalized Poisson process) of the materials burn, or, rounding, where approximately 1/3 of the samples fail the test (and burn). Recognizing that spacecraft atmospheres will not bound the entire oxygen-pressure parameter space, but actually lie along the normoxic atmosphere control band, we can focus the materials flammability testing along this normoxic band. A Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure (NULP) is defined that determines the minimum safe total pressure for a material within the constant partial pressure control band. Then, increasing this pressure limit by a factor of safety, we can define the material as being safe to use at the NULP + SF (where SF is on the order of 10 kilopascal, based on existing flammability data). It is recommended that the thickest material to be tested with the current Test 1 igniter should be 3 mm thick (1/8 inches) to avoid the problem of differentiating between an ignition limit and a true flammability limit.

flammability↗

Nebular and Interstellar Materials in a Giant Cluster IDP of Probable Cometary Origin

Comets contain a complex mixture of materials with presolar and Solar System origins. Chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles (CP-IDPs) are associated with comets by their fragile nature, unequilibrated anhydrous mineralogy and high abundances of circumstellar grains and isotopically anomalous organic materials. Comet 81P/Wild 2 samples returned by the Stardust spacecraft contain presolar materials as well as refractory 16O-rich Ca-Al-rich inclusion- (CAI), chondrule-, and AOA-like materials. We are conducting coordinated chemical, mineralogical, and isotopic studies of a giant cluster CP-IDP (U2-20-GCA) to determine the proportions of inner Solar System and interstellar materials. We previously found that this IDP contains abundant presolar silicates (approx. 1,800 ppm) and 15N-rich hotspots [6].

Messenger, S.↗

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Populations↗

Consistent Practices for the Probability of Detection (POD) of Fracture Critical Metallic Components Project

NASA-STD-5009 requires that successful flaw detection by NDE methods be statistically qualified for use on fracture critical metallic components, but does not standardize practices. This task works towards standardizing calculations and record retention with a web-based tool, the NNWG POD Standards Library or NPSL. Test methods will also be standardized with an appropriately flexible appendix to -5009 identifying best practices. Additionally, this appendix will describe how specimens used to qualify NDE systems will be cataloged, stored and protected from corrosion, damage, or loss.

Hughitt, Brian↗