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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Entanglement wedge reconstruction and the information paradox

When absorbing boundary conditions are used to evaporate a black hole in AdS/CFT, we show that there is a phase transition in the location of the quantum Ryu-Takayanagi surface, at precisely the Page time. The new RT surface lies slightly inside the event horizon, at an infalling time approximately the scrambling time β/2 π logS BH into the past. We can immediately derive the Page curve, using the Ryu-Takayanagi formula, and the Hayden-Preskill decoding criterion, using entanglement wedge reconstruction. Because part of the interior is now encoded in the early Hawking radiation, the decreasing entanglement entropy of the black hole is exactly consistent with the semiclassical bulk entanglement of the late-time Hawking modes, despite the absence of a firewall.By studying the entanglement wedge of highly mixed states, we can understand the state dependence of the interior reconstructions. A crucial role is played by the existence of tiny, non-perturbative errors in entanglement wedge reconstruction. Directly after the Page time, interior operators can only be reconstructed from the Hawking radiation if the initial state of the black hole is known. As the black hole continues to evaporate, reconstructions become possible that simultaneously work for a large class of initial states. Using similar techniques, we generalise Hayden-Preskill to show how the amount of Hawking radiation required to reconstruct a large diary, thrown into the black hole, depends on both the energy and the entropy of the diary. Finally we argue that, before the evaporation begins, a single, state-independent interior reconstruction exists for any code space of microstates with entropy strictly less than the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy, and show that this is sufficient state dependence to avoid the AMPSS typical-state firewall paradox.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Post-irradiation examination of the Sirius-1 nuclear thermal propulsion fuel test

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) systems hold promise in reducing transit times for exploration of the solar system by both crewed and uncrewed missions. NTP systems currently under investigation include a once-through high-temperature gas-cooled fission reactor to provide thermal energy to heat the coolant, which also serves as the propellant. The fuel system consists of angular UN fuel particles dispersed in a matrix of W/Re, creating a ceramic and metallic composite or cermet, which has been irradiated in Idaho National Laboratory's (INL) Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT). This enabled evaluation of these materials under representative nuclear heating rates (~95 K/s) and peak surface temperatures (~2527 K). Further, these surface conditions were indicative of achievement of the target peak internal temperature of approximately 2850 K. These tests named Sirius-1 (UN–W/Re), have been irradiated and this paper will present post-irradiation examination results. The Sirius-1 test produced minor, stable cracks in the fuel specimen and spalling of surface material. Volatilized uranium ‘soot’ was found deposited on the inner wall of the irradiation capsule indicating loss of some fissile material from the fuel specimen. Spalling from the surfaces was also noted upon visual inspection. Uranium diffusion from the fuel particles resulted in the formation of U/Re phases and the production of a laminar microstructure on the edge of the fuel system. Overall, the specimen was stable and remained within a coolable geometry upon conclusion of multiple thermal cycles to prototypical operating temperatures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rapid evolution of aerosol particles and their optical properties downwind of wildfires in the western US

Abstract. During the first phase of the Biomass Burn Operational Project (BBOP) field campaign, conducted in the Pacific Northwest, the DOE G-1 aircraft was used to follow the time evolution of wildfire smoke from near the point of emission to locations 2–3.5 h downwind. In nine flights we made repeated transects of wildfire plumes at varying downwind distances and could thereby follow the plume's time evolution. On average there was little change in dilution-normalized aerosol mass concentration as a function of downwind distance. This consistency hides a dynamic system in which primary aerosol particles are evaporating and secondary ones condensing. Organic aerosol is oxidized as a result. On all transects more than 90 % of aerosol is organic. In freshly emitted smoke aerosol, NH4+ is approximately equivalent to NO3. After 2 h of daytime aging, NH4+ increased and is approximately equivalent to the sum of Cl, SO42, and NO3. Particle size increased with downwind distance, causing particles to be more efficient scatters. Averaged over nine flights, mass scattering efficiency (MSE) increased in ∼ 2 h by 56 % and doubled in one flight. Mechanisms for redistributing mass from small to large particles are discussed. Coagulation is effective at moving aerosol from the Aitken to accumulation modes but yields only a minor increase in MSE. As absorption remained nearly constant with age, the time evolution of single scatter albedo was controlled by age-dependent scattering. Near-fire aerosol had a single scatter albedo (SSA) of 0.8–0.9. After 1 to 2 h of aging SSAs were typically 0.9 and greater. Assuming global-average surface and atmospheric conditions, the observed age dependence in SSA would change the direct radiative effect of a wildfire plume from near zero near the fire to a cooling effect downwind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MSD CoP Webinar: "Generative agents: A new frontier for representing human actors and their behavior in MSD models"

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Talk #1: Behavioral Generative Agents for Energy Operations Presenter: Dr. Cong Chen (Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College) Abstract: Accurately modeling consumer behavior in energy operations remains challenging due to inherent uncertainties, behavioral complexities, and limited empirical data. This talk introduces a novel approach leveraging generative agents--artificial agents powered by large language models--to realistically simulate customer decision-making in dynamic energy operations. Talk #2: Simulating multiple human perspectives in socio-ecological systems using large language models Presenter: Dr. Yongchao Zeng (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany) Abstract: Understanding socio-ecological systems requires insights from diverse stakeholder perspectives. This talk describes a novel simulation system called HoPeS (Human-oriented Perspective Shifting). HoPeS enables model users to not only explore simulated socio-ecological systems (SESs) from a third-person observer's perspective but also take any of the simulated stakeholder roles, like playing an RPG game. By shifting multiple perspectives, model users can reflect and integrate the situated knowledge learned through the participatory simulation, approximating a more holistic and less biased understanding of SESs. Moderators: Jim Yoon (MSD CoP Human Systems Modeling Working Group Co-Chair); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP Using AI to Enhance MSD Research Working Group Co-Chair); Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: November 13th, 2025 from 12-1 PM EST.

Artificial Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Separations Consortium: Counter Current Chromatography

In support of the Bioenergy Technologies Office in recovering coproducts in biorefineries this project evaluates the use of Counter Current Chromatography (CCC) in recovering co-products from Reductive Catalytic Fractionation (RCF) oil, Alkaline Pretreatment Liquor (APL), aqueous phase Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) oil, and Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis (CFP) oil. The project addresses three technology barriers in developing the bioeconomy; (1) Cost of production (2) Selective separation of organic acid species, and (3) Advanced bioprocess development. CCC is a unique, scalable, chromatographic technology that operates with two immiscible liquid phases moving counter current to one another. Unlike Simulated Moving Bed (SMB) technology, CCC is a true moving bed and because it uses liquids as both the stationary and mobile phase it can handle solids directly in the feed. This aspect of CCC allows it to skip the expensive filtration step needed prior to traditional SMB, furthermore the liquid phases are composed on relatively inexpensive organics (e.g. hexane and ethyl acetate). This project develops CCC methods for direct isolation of co-products from RCF oil, APL, HTL aqueous, and CFP oil. TechnoEconomic Analysis and process modeling is presented to compare CCC to SMB and assess its applicability in a holistic biorefinery. Initial results indicate approximately 4x reductions in solvent demand and 2x reduction in energy consumption compared to SMB.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Easy-plane spin Hall nano-oscillators as spiking neurons for neuromorphic computing

Here we show analytically using a macrospin approximation that easy-plane spin Hall nano-oscillators excited by a spin current polarized perpendicularly to the easy plane have phase dynamics analogous to that of Josephson junctions. Similarly to Josephson junctions, they can reproduce the spiking behavior of biological neurons that is appropriate for neuromorphic computing. To take advantage of typical spin-orbit torques, we use a nanoconstriction geometry, in which the magnetostatic interaction and magnetocrystalline anisotropy are tuned to create an easy plane that includes the interface normal direction. We perform micromagnetic simulations of such oscillators realized in this geometry and show that the easy-plane spiking dynamics is preserved in this experimentally feasible architecture. Finally we simulate two elementary neural network blocks that implement operations essential for neuromorphic computing. First, we show that output spikes energies from two neurons can be summed and injected into a following layer neuron and second, we demonstrate that outputs can be multiplied by synaptic weights implemented by locally modifying the anisotropy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Definition of fragmentation functions and the violation of sum rules

We point out a problem with the formulation and derivations of sum rules for quark fragmentation functions that impacts their validity in QCD, but which potentially points toward an improved understanding of final states in inclusive hard processes. Fragmentation functions give the distribution of final-state hadrons arising from a parton exiting a hard scattering, and the sum rules for momentum, electric charge, etc. express conservation of these quantities. The problem arises from a mismatch between the quark quantum numbers of the initial quark and the fact that all observed final-state hadrons are confined bound states with color zero. We point that, in a confining theory like QCD, the Wilson line in the operator definition of a fragmentation function entails that the final state in a fragmentation function includes a bound state in the external field generated by the Wilson line. We justify this with the aid of general features of string hadronization. The anomalous bound states are restricted to fractional momentum z = 0 . They tend to invalidate sum rules like the one for charge conservation when applied to the fragmentation functions inferred from experimental data but not the momentum sum rule. We propose to exploit our ideas in future studies as a way to relate the fragmentation functions extracted from inclusive cross sections to more detailed nonperturbative descriptions of final state hadronization. We also describe scenarios wherein the traditional sum rules might remain approximately valid with a reasonably high degree of accuracy. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Laminography as a tool for imaging large-size samples with high resolution

Despite the increased brilliance of the new generation synchrotron sources, there is still a challenge with high-resolution scanning of very thick and absorbing samples, such as a whole mouse brain stained with heavy elements, and, extending further, brains of primates. Samples are typically cut into smaller parts, to ensure a sufficient X-ray transmission, and scanned separately. Compared with the standard tomography setup where the sample would be cut into many pillars, the laminographic geometry operates with slab-shaped sections significantly reducing the number of sample parts to be prepared, the cutting damage and data stitching problems. In this work, a laminography pipeline for imaging large samples (>1 cm) at micrometre resolution is presented. The implementation includes a low-cost instrument setup installed at the 2-BM micro-CT beamline of the Advanced Photon Source. Additionally, sample mounting, scanning techniques, data stitching procedures, a fast reconstruction algorithm with low computational complexity, and accelerated reconstruction on multi-GPU systems for processing large-scale datasets are presented. The applicability of the whole laminography pipeline was demonstrated by imaging four sequential slabs throughout an entire mouse brain sample stained with osmium, in total generating approximately 12 TB of raw data for reconstruction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

FastACE

SAND2024-01893O The Fast Adaptive Cosine Estimator (FastACE) algorithm modifies the well-known Adaptive Cosine Estimator for target detection in hyperspectral imagery. Specifically, FastACE modifies the computation of the background precision matrix (C_b^-1) under a Vecchia approximation. That is, each spectral band, conditioned on a local neighborhood of bands around that band, is independent of the other spectral bands. The FastACE algorithm leverages a parameterizable, auto-regressive neighborhood for the conditional independence assumption. The underlying math used for computing detection scores is equivalent to ACE, but it is implemented within FastACE. The software implements a target detection algorithm and associated utilities for target detection in hyperspectral imagery. Provided with a hyperspectral image and corresponding target signature, it produces relevant background statistics and the corresponding detection scores for the target signature in the image. The software is designed to integrate into other end-user applications or processing. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

VanderLaan, John↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and Detection Limit of Spectroscopic-Grade Perovskite CsPbBr 3 Crystal for Hard X-Ray Detection

We report spectroscopic-grade single crystal detectors can register the energies of individual X-ray interactions enabling photon-counting systems with superior resolution over traditional photoconductive X-ray detection systems. Current technical challenges have limited the preparation of perovskite semiconductors for energy-discrimination X-ray photon-counting detection. Here, this work reports the deployment of a spectroscopic-grade CsPbBr 3 Schottky detector under reverse bias for continuum hard X-ray detection in both the photocurrent and spectroscopic schemes. High surface barriers of approximate to ≈ 1 eV are formed by depositing solid bismuth and gold contacts. The spectroscopic response under a hard X-ray source is assessed in resolving the characteristic X-ray peak. The methodology in enhancing X-ray sensitivity by controlling the X-ray energies and flux, and voltage, is described. The X-ray sensitivity varies between a few tens to over 8000 μC Gy air -1 cm -2 . The detectable dose rate of the CsPbBr 3 detectors is as low as 0.02 nGy air s -1 in the energy discrimination configuration. Finally, the unbiased CsPbBr 3 device forms a spontaneous contact potential difference of about 0.7 V enabling high quality of the CsPbBr 3 single crystals to operate in "passive" self-powered X-ray detection mode and the X-ray sensitivity is estimated as 14 μC Gy air -1 cm -2 . The great potential of spectroscopic-grade CsPbBr 3 devices for X-ray photon-counting systems is anticipated in this work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transient cycling of nitrogen, organic carbon and oxygen within the free-flowing Columbia River corridor: Linking exposure time dependent biogeochemical reactions to river stage fluctuations (Final project report)

The objective of this project was to develop next-generation techniques for representing the transformations of complex reaction networks like those impacting transient river-corridors, then apply them to develop upscaling tools. The project contributed significantly to the development of Lagrangian “mass transfer particle tracking” (MTPT) tools that are the first numerical framework that explicitly separates mixing and spreading processes; a crucial distinction for accurate representations of reaction rates across scales. The MTPT approach uses an operator splitting scheme where physical transport processes are simulated using classical random walk methods and each particle is treated as a “container” that carries with it any number of chemical species. Mixing between particles is simulated using a colocation-probability based mass transfer kernel and reactions are evaluated on each particle after mixing. The method is stable, accurate, and also allows the explicit modeling of residence time distributions of the individual containers of mass. The MTPT scheme allowed us to explore several research questions related to reactive transport in river corridors and complex reaction networks. We found that it is possible to quantify the exposure time distributions (ETDs) of reactants and that this does suggest some pathways to upscaling. However, comparable approximations can be obtained using simplified (reduced dimensionality) MTPT simulations in less time with similar uncertainty, so development of extensive ETD-based methods was not productive. The major findings are that i) the MTPT schemes are robust and highly accurate across a range of arbitrarily complex reactions, ii) the methods can be efficiently parallelized and the parallel performance characteristics of MTPT are predictable, and iii) the MTPT tools allow simultaneous tracking of residence time. The development of these research tools into efficient software packages continues. The methods are already available to the community because open-source, working examples have been included with all publications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

H-2-SALT: Storing Fossil Energy as Hydrogen in Salt Caverns

Hydrogen storage in subsurface caverns is known as perhaps largest and longest-term energy storage system. While few such systems are currently in service (e.g., Texas; Teesside, UK), they are envisioned as being a pillar of the current energy transition that will allow intermittent power production from renewable sources (e.g., wind, solar) to be balanced with demand at grid-scale. In addition, hydrogen energy storage can allow existing fossil power plants to run more economically either by minimizing startups/shutdowns or by allowing them to take advantage of arbitrage. Finally, stored hydrogen can feed a variety of non-power users such as pipeline gas, heating, transportation, and manufacturing. The H-2-SALT paper study assessed the feasibility of a power-to-hydrogen system utilizing salt cavern storage of hydrogen in bedded salt in central Kansas, where over 750 such caverns have been constructed to date, of which approximately 350 are still in service. Legacy well and salt cavern data were collected to develop a regional geological database for two sites in Central Kansas and adjacent areas for use in more detailed geological and geomechanical site characterization efforts. This study found commercial viability and competitiveness of large-scale, electrolytic H 2 production and storage ($1.78 per kg H 2 ) that can be used for both electrical power supply to the grid during high-priced electricity periods (including co-firing with NG and fuel cell power production) and sale of H 2 for various industries, such as petrochemicals or transportation. The commercial potential of the H-2-SALT system is also relatively high because each of its components operate commercially today. It is recommended that a stratigraphic test well be drilled to collect log data and core samples that can reduce uncertainty surrounding geological and geomechanical properties of the salt beds that will be required for further cavern and energy storage system design studies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of online pulse-finding algorithms for the Mu2e Stopping Target Monitor and an evaluation of the signal to background ratio for the Mu2e stopped-muon rate determination

This thesis presents a determination of the acceptance of the Mu2e Stopping Target Monitor (STM) detector for both signal and background events. The rate of X-rays of a specific energy in the STM is used to determine the rate of stopped muons in the aluminium stopping target, which is used as the normalisation for all Mu2e measurements, particularly the branching ratio for a charged lepton flavour violating (cLFV) process. The acceptance for the 347\,keV $2p-1s$ aluminium signal X-ray is determined to be $(8.03 \pm 0.05) \times 10^{-10}$\,cm$^{-2}$ and the acceptance for the background photons (at 347\,keV) to be $(3.19 \pm 0.21) \times 10^{-8}$\,cm$^{-2}$. This results in a signal-to-background ratio of approximately two which is significantly higher than had previously been estimated. These signal-to-background rates are used to determine the time required to achieve a statistical uncertainty of 10\% on the number of 347\,keV X-rays as a function of the detector resolution and back ground rate. For a resolution of 2\,keV, and the background rate determined in this thesis, approximately one minute of data is required. The three corrections needed to be applied to the measured 347\,keV rate to determine the rate of stopped muons are also determined and potential sources of bias arising from the background shape, background fit range and energy calibration are investigated and found to be insignificant. The raw energy of the particles in the STM detector comes from a 16-bit ADC digitising at $\sim 300$\,MHz. It is not possible to store all the raw digitisations and online algorithms have been developed to rapidly select pulses in the detector and reconstruct their energy. The performance of these algorithms has been characterised with simulated data as a function of detector rate and resolution and optimum operating points for the algorithms have been defined. The integrity of the algorithms has also been demonstrated and characterised on test-beam data at high r ates and with radioactive sources at low rates.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding airflow pattern and temperature distribution in domestic refrigerators – A review analyzing recent developments and bridging knowledge gaps

Refrigerators have become an essential appliance in every household, and they consume approximately 30% of total electricity among other domestic appliances such as clothes washers, dryers, and air conditioners. With the refrigerator’s comparatively high energy consumption compared with other appliances, existing research has mainly focused on improving the energy efficiency of refrigerators by changing the design of the compressor, heat exchanger, refrigerant, and insulation. However, previous studies have paid very little attention to the research and development of the temperature distribution in the refrigerator, which is a key parameter in determining energy consumption and food safety. Therefore, this review aims to present an overview of recent design developments to improve the temperature distribution and air circulation in domestic refrigerators, including static refrigerators and no-frost refrigerators. Herein, this review article discusses the various operation and design factors that can affect the air circulation and temperature uniformity of the refrigerator, including shelf arrangement, the compressor on/off cycle, thermostat settings, evaporator design, ambient conditions, door opening frequency, and product loading temperatures. Additionally, this review provides a summary of the advanced vapor compression cycle based refrigerators that are expected to provide better energy efficiency and independent temperature control in freezer and refrigerator compartments. This review elaborates on the significance of improving the performance of the domestic refrigerator in terms of temperature distribution and air circulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Sources and Transport Processes During Extreme Ammonia Episodes in the U.S. Corn Belt

Abstract Atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ) is the primary form of reactive nitrogen (N r ) and a precursor of ammonium (NH 4 + ) aerosols. Ammonia has been linked to adverse impacts on human health, the loss of ecosystem biodiversity, and plays a key role in aerosol radiative forcing. The midwestern United States is the major NH 3 source in North America because of dense livestock operations and the high use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Here, we combine tall‐tower (100 m) observations in Minnesota and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) modeling to investigate high and low NH 3 emission episodes within the U.S. Corn Belt to improve our understanding of the distribution of emission sources and transport processes. We examined observations and performed model simulations for cases in February through November of 2017 and 2018. The results showed the following: (1) Peak emissions in November 2017 were enhanced by above‐normal air temperatures, implying a Q 10 (i.e., the change in NH 3 emissions for a temperature increase of 10°C) of 2.5 for emissions. (2) The intensive livestock emissions rom northern Iowa, approximately 400 km away from the tall tower, accounted for 17.6% of the abundance in tall‐tower NH 3 mixing ratios. (3) Ammonia mixing ratios in the innermost domain 3 frequently (i.e., 336 hr, 48% of November 2017) exceeded 5.3 ppb, an important air quality health standard. (4) In November 2017, simulated NH 3 net ecosystem exchange (the difference between NH 3 emissions and dry deposition) accounted for 60–65% of gross NH 3 emissions for agricultural areas and was 2.8–3.1 times the emissions of forested areas. (5) We estimated a mean annual NH 3 net ecosystem exchange of 1.60 ± 0.06 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for agricultural lands and −0.07 ± 0.02 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for forested lands. These results imply that future warmer fall temperatures will enhance agricultural NH 3 emissions, increase the frequency of dangerous NH 3 episodes, and enhance dry NH 3 deposition in adjacent forested lands.

Hu, Cheng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined microwave and laser Rayleigh scattering diagnostics for pin-to-pin nanosecond discharges

In this work, the temporal decay of electrons produced by an atmospheric pin-to-pin nanosecond discharge operating in the spark regime was measured via a combination of microwave Rayleigh scattering (MRS) and laser Rayleigh scattering (LRS). Due to the initial energy deposition of the nanosecond pulse, a variation in the local gas density occurs on the timescale of electron decay. Thus, the assumption of a constant collisional frequency is no longer applicable when electron number data are extracted from MRS measurements. Furthermore, to recalibrate MRS measurements throughout the electron decay period, temporally resolved LRS measurements of the local gas density were performed over the event duration. The local gas density was calculated to be 30% of the ambient level during the later stages of electron decay, and it recovers at about 1 ms after discharge. A shock front traveling approximately 500 m/s was additionally observed. Coupled with plasma volume calibration via temporally resolved intensified charge-coupled device imaging, the corrected decay curves of the electron number and electron number density are presented with a measured peak electron number density of 4.5 × 1015 cm -3 and a decay rate of ~(0.1–0.35) × 10 7 s -1 . A hybrid MRS and LRS diagnostic technique can be applied for a broad spectrum of atmospheric-pressure microplasmas where a variation in the gas number density is expected due to energy deposition in the discharge.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗