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NASA NTRS1983

Forecasting trends in NASA flight software development tools

The experience gained in the design and development of Shuttle flight and ground support embedded software systems along with projections of increasing role and size of software in the proposed Space Station and other future NASA projects provides the basis for forecasting substantial changes in the tools and methodologies by which embedded software systems are developed and acquired. Similar changes in software architectures and operator interfaces will lead to substantial changes in the approach and techniques involved in software test and system integration. Increasing commonality among different flight systems and between flight and supporting ground systems is projected, along with a more distributed approach to software acquisition in highly complex projects such as Space Station.

Garman, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Predictability in the extended range

This paper describes the results of extended range predictability experiments using an efficient two-level spherical quasi-geostrophic model. The experiments have an initial rms doubling time of about two days. This growth rate, along with an initial error of about one-half the initial error of present operational models, produces an rms error equal to the climatological rms error and a correlation of 0.5 on about day 12 of the forecast. On the largest scales, this limiting point is reached shortly thereafter. The error continues to grow at a decreasing rate until at about 30 days the forecast skill is extremely small and comparable to the skill of a persistence forecast. Various time averages at various lags are examined for skill in the extended range. Filters that weighted most strongly in the initial forecast days provide increased skill.

Roads, John O.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A snow wetness retrieval algorithm for SAR

The objectives of this study are: (1) to evaluate the backscattering signals response to snow wetness; and (2) to develop an algorithm for snow wetness measurement using C-band polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR). In hydrological investigations, modeling and forecasting of snowmelt runoff requires information about snowpack properties and their spatial variability. In particular, timely measurement of snow parameters is needed for operational hydrology. The liquid water content of snowpack is one of the important parameters. Active microwave sensors are highly sensitive to liquid water in the snowpack because of the large dielectric contrast between ice and water in the microwave spectrum. They are not affected by weather and have a spatial resolution compatible with the topographic variation in alpine regions. However, a quantitative algorithm for retrieval snow wetness has not yet been developed.

Shi, Jian-Cheng↗

NASA NTRS2000

NOAA-L

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have jointly developed a valuable series of polar-orbiting Earth environmental observation satellites since 1978. These satellites provide global data to NOAA's short- and long-range weather forecasting systems. The system consists of two polar-orbiting satellites known as the Advanced Television Infrared Observation Satellites (TIROS-N) (ATN). Operating as a pair, these satellites ensure that environmental data, for any region of the Earth, is no more than six hours old. These polar-orbiting satellites have not only provided cost-effective data for very immediate and real needs but also for extensive climate and research programs. The weather data (including images seen on television news programs) has afforded both convenience and safety to viewers throughout the world. The satellites also support the SARSAT (Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking) part of the COSPAS-SARSAT constellation. Russia provides the COSPAS (Russian for Space Systems for the Search of Vessels in Distress) satellites. The international COSPAS-SARSAT system provides for the detection and location of emergency beacons for ships, aircraft, and people in distress and has contributed to the saving of more than 10,000 lives since its inception in 1982.

McCain, Harry G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica, composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico, make up only a small fraction of the world's land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet's biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica's biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica - composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico - make up only a small fraction of the world s land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet s biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica s biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, Daniel E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Initial Results from the Vector Electric Field Investigation on the C/NOFS Satellite

Initial results are presented from the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, a mission designed to understand, model, and forecast the presence of equatorial ionospheric irregularities. The VEFI instrument includes a vector DC electric field detector, a fixed-bias Langmuir probe operating in the ion saturation regime, a flux gate magnetometer, an optical lightning detector, and associated electronics including a burst memory. The DC electric field detector has revealed zonal and meridional electric fields that undergo a diurnal variation, typically displaying eastward and outward-directed fields during the day and westward and downward-directed fields at night. In general, the measured DC electric field amplitudes are in the 0.5-2 mV/m range, corresponding to I3 x B drifts of the order of 30-150 m/s. What is surprising is the high degree of large-scale (10's to 100's of km) structure in the DC electric field, particularly at night, regardless of whether well-defined spread-F plasma density depletions are present. The spread-F density depletions and corresponding electric fields that have been detected thus far have displayed a preponderance to appear between midnight and dawn. Associated with the narrow plasma depletions that are detected are broad spectra of electric field and plasma density irregularities for which a full vector set of measurements is available for detailed study. On some occasions, localized regions of low frequency (< 8 Hz) magnetic field broadband irregularities have been detected, suggestive of filamentary currents, although there is no one-to-one correspondence of these waves with the observed plasma density depletions, at least within the data examined thus far. Finally, the data set includes a wide range of ELF/VLF/HF waves corresponding to a variety of plasma waves, in particular banded ELF hiss, whistlers, and lower hybrid wave turbulence triggered by lightning-induced sferics. The VEFI data set represents a treasure trove of measurements that are germane to numerous fundamental aspects of the electrodynamics and irregularities inherent to the Earth's low latitude ionosphere.

Pfaff, R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Goes-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM): Algorithm and Instrument Status

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved capability for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. A joint field campaign with Brazilian researchers in 2010-2011 will produce concurrent observations from a VHF lightning mapping array, Meteosat multi-band imagery, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) overpasses, and related ground and in-situ lightning and meteorological measurements in the vicinity of Sao Paulo. These data will provide a new comprehensive proxy data set for algorithm and application development.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Initial Results of DC Electric Fields, Associated Plasma Drifts, Magnetic Fields, and Plasma Waves Observed on the C/NOFS Satellite

Initial results are presented from the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, a mission designed to understand, model, and forecast the presence of equatorial ionospheric irregularities. The VEFI instrument includes a vector DC electric field detector, a fixed-bias Langmuir probe operating in the ion saturation regime, a flux gate magnetometer, an optical lightning detector, and associated electronics including a burst memory. Compared to data obtained during more active solar conditions, the ambient DC electric fields and their associated E x B drifts are variable and somewhat weak, typically < 1 mV/m. Although average drift directions show similarities to those previously reported, eastward/outward during day and westward/downward at night, this pattern varies significantly with longitude and is not always present. Daytime vertical drifts near the magnetic equator are largest after sunrise, with smaller average velocities after noon. Little or no pre-reversal enhancement in the vertical drift near sunset is observed, attributable to the solar minimum conditions creating a much reduced neutral dynamo at the satellite altitude. The nighttime ionosphere is characterized by larger amplitude, structured electric fields, even where the plasma density appears nearly quiescent. Data from successive orbits reveal that the vertical drifts and plasma density are both clearly organized with longitude. The spread-F density depletions and corresponding electric fields that have been detected thus far have displayed a preponderance to appear between midnight and dawn. Associated with the narrow plasma depletions that are detected are broad spectra of electric field and plasma density irregularities for which a full vector set of measurements is available for detailed study. Finally, the data set includes a wide range of ELF/VLF/HF oscillations corresponding to a variety of plasma waves, in particular banded ELF hiss, whistlers, and lower hybrid wave turbulence triggered by lightning-induced sferics. The VEFI data represents a new set of measurements that are germane to numerous fundamental aspects of the electrodynamics and irregularities inherent to the Earth's low latitude ionosphere.

Pfaff, R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

DC Electric Fields, Associated Plasma Drifts, and Irregularities Observed on the C/NOFS Satellite

Results are presented from the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, a mission designed to understand, model, and forecast the presence of equatorial ionospheric irregularities. The VEFI instrument includes a vector DC electric field detector, a fixed-bias Langmuir probe operating in the ion saturation regime, a flux gate magnetometer, an optical lightning detector, and associated electronics including a burst memory. Compared to data obtained during more active solar conditions, the ambient DC electric fields and their associated E x B drifts are variable and somewhat weak, typically < 1 mV/m. Although average drift directions show similarities to those previously reported, eastward/outward during day and westward/downward at night, this pattern varies significantly with longitude and is not always present. Daytime vertical drifts near the magnetic equator are largest after sunrise, with smaller average velocities after noon. Little or no pre-reversal enhancement in the vertical drift near sunset is observed, attributable to the solar minimum conditions creating a much reduced neutral dynamo at the satellite altitude. The nighttime ionosphere is characterized by larger amplitude, structured electric fields, even where the plasma density appears nearly quiescent. Data from successive orbits reveal that the vertical drifts and plasma density are both clearly organized with longitude. The spread-F density depletions and corresponding electric fields that have been detected thus far have displayed a preponderance to appear between midnight and dawn. Associated with the narrow plasma depletions that are detected are broad spectra of electric field and plasma density irregularities for which a full vector set of measurements is available for detailed study. The VEFI data represents a new set of measurements that are germane to numerous fundamental aspects of the electrodynamics and irregularities inherent to the Earth s low latitude ionosphere.

Pfaff, R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The GOES-R GeoStationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved capability for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency among a number of potential applications. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms (environmental data records), cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications using GLM alone, in combination with the ABI, merged with ground-based sensors, and decision aids augmented by numerical weather prediction model forecasts. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. An international field campaign planned for 2011-2012 will produce concurrent observations from a VHF lightning mapping array, Meteosat multi-band imagery, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) overpasses, and related ground and in-situ lightning and meteorological measurements in the vicinity of Sao Paulo. These data will provide a new comprehensive proxy data set for algorithm and application development.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Goes-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved storm diagnostic capability with the Advanced Baseline Imager. The GLM will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. In this paper we will report on new Nowcasting and storm warning applications being developed and evaluated at various NOAA Testbeds.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

air traffic routing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Geologic Behavior in Carbon Storage Projects Using Graph Neural Network

This study was invited to presented at NVIDIA's GTC conference to highlight the potential of Graph Neural Network as a novel and promising methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in carbon storage projects. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology plays a pivotal role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, facilitating the transition to a low-carbon future. Effective management of subsurface reservoirs is essential to ensure the safe and efficient storage of captured carbon dioxide (CO₂). Accurate predictions of pressure and saturation over time are critical for evaluating the long-term performance and integrity of CCS projects. In recent years, Graph Neural Network (GNN) has emerged as a powerful framework for analyzing complex data in graph-structured domains. This abstract explores the application of GNN to forecast pressure and saturation evolution in carbon storage projects. Traditional numerical simulations of subsurface reservoirs have proven successful in providing pressure and saturation forecasts. However, these simulations involve massive amounts of computational effort and require extensive domain expertise for proper model calibration and validation. Graph Neural Operator offers an alternative approach that harnesses the inherent graph structure of reservoirs, where nodes represent reservoir grid cells and edges represent the geological connectivity between them.

Shih, Chung Yan↗

NASA NTRS2000

On-Line, Self-Learning, Predictive Tool for Determining Payload Thermal Response

This paper will present the results of a joint ManTech / Goddard R&D effort, currently under way, to develop and test a computer based, on-line, predictive simulation model for use by facility operators to predict the thermal response of a payload during thermal vacuum testing. Thermal response was identified as an area that could benefit from the algorithms developed by Dr. Jeri for complex computer simulations. Most thermal vacuum test setups are unique since no two payloads have the same thermal properties. This requires that the operators depend on their past experiences to conduct the test which requires time for them to learn how the payload responds while at the same time limiting any risk of exceeding hot or cold temperature limits. The predictive tool being developed is intended to be used with the new Thermal Vacuum Data System (TVDS) developed at Goddard for the Thermal Vacuum Test Operations group. This model can learn the thermal response of the payload by reading a few data points from the TVDS, accepting the payload's current temperature as the initial condition for prediction. The model can then be used as a predictive tool to estimate the future payload temperatures according to a predetermined shroud temperature profile. If the error of prediction is too big, the model can be asked to re-learn the new situation on-line in real-time and give a new prediction. Based on some preliminary tests, we feel this predictive model can forecast the payload temperature of the entire test cycle within 5 degrees Celsius after it has learned 3 times during the beginning of the test. The tool will allow the operator to play "what-if' experiments to decide what is his best shroud temperature set-point control strategy. This tool will save money by minimizing guess work and optimizing transitions as well as making the testing process safer and easier to conduct.

Jen, Chian-Li↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feedback, physics, and forecasts: The emerging paradigm of machine learning-driven battery research

Machine learning (ML) is reshaping how we understand, predict, and optimize electrochemical systems. In batteries, ML accelerates discovery across chemistry, design, and operation by transforming massive experimental and simulated datasets into predictive, interpretable models. This review consolidates a decade of progress in ML-driven battery innovation, from early-cycle feature extraction to operando image analysis and physics-informed modeling. We categorize approaches by data domain and physical fidelity, emphasizing interpretable ML for diagnostics, reinforcement learning for control, and multi-objective optimization for lifetime extension strategies. Additionally, we demonstrate how integrated models accelerate discovery, reduce testing time, and guide sustainable design. Economic analyses furthermore illustrate how these advances can lower cost per cycle and improve circularity. Together, these developments chart a path toward self-optimizing, sustainable battery technologies.

artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA SPoRT GOES-R Proving Ground Activities

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program is a partner with the GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) helping prepare forecasters understand the unique products to come from the GOES-R instrument suite. SPoRT is working collaboratively with other members of the GOES-R PG team and Algorithm Working Group (AWG) scientists to develop and disseminate a suite of proxy products that address specific forecast problems for the WFOs, Regional and National Support Centers, and other NOAA users. These products draw on SPoRT s expertise with the transition and evaluation of products into operations from the MODIS instrument and the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The MODIS instrument serves as an excellent proxy for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) that will be aboard GOES-R. SPoRT has transitioned and evaluated several multi-channel MODIS products. The true and false color products are being used in natural hazard detection by several SPoRT partners to provide better observation of land features, such as fires, smoke plumes, and snow cover. Additionally, many of SPoRT s partners are coastal offices and already benefit from the MODIS sea surface temperature composite. This, along with other surface feature observations will be developed into ABI proxy products for diagnostic use in the forecast process as well as assimilation into forecast models. In addition to the MODIS instrument, the NALMA has proven very valuable to WFOs with access to these total lightning data. These data provide situational awareness and enhanced warning decision making to improve lead times for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. One effort by SPoRT scientists includes a lightning threat product to create short-term model forecasts of lightning activity. Additionally, SPoRT is working with the AWG to create GLM proxy data from several of the ground based total lightning networks, such as the NALMA. The evaluation will focus on the vastly improved spatial coverage of the GLM, but with the trade-off of lower resolution compared to the NALMA. In addition to the above tasks, SPoRT will make these data available in the NWS next generation display software, AWIPS II. This has already been successfully completed for the two basic GLM proxies. SPoRT will use these products to train forecasters on the capabilities of GOES-R and foster feedback to develop additional products, visualizations, and requirements beneficial to end users needs. These developments and feedback will be made available to the GOES-R Proving Ground for the upcoming 2010 Spring Program in Norman, Oklahoma.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Assimilation of Sea Ice Thickness Derived from Cryosat-2 Along-Track Freeboard Measurements into the Met Office's Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM)

The feasibility of assimilating sea ice thickness (SIT) observations derived from CryoSat-2 along-track measurements of sea ice freeboard is successfully demonstrated using a 3D-Var assimilation scheme, NEMOVAR, within the Met Office's global, coupled ocean–sea-ice model, Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). The CryoSat-2 Arctic freeboard measurements are produced by the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) and are converted to SIT within FOAM using modelled snow depth. This is the first time along-track observations of SIT have been used in this way, with other centres assimilating gridded and temporally averaged observations. The assimilation leads to improvements in the SIT analysis and forecast fields generated by FOAM, particularly in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic-wide observation-minus-background assimilation statistics for 2015–2017 show improvements of 0.75 m mean difference and 0.41 m root-mean-square difference (RMSD) in the freeze-up period and 0.46 m mean difference and 0.33 m RMSD in the ice break-up period. Validation of the SIT analysis against independent springtime in situ SIT observations from NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) shows improvement in the SIT analysis of 0.61 m mean difference (0.42 m RMSD) compared to a control without SIT assimilation. Similar improvements are seen in the FOAM 5 d SIT forecast. Validation of the SIT assimilation with independent Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project (BGEP) sea ice draft observations does not show an improvement, since the assimilated CryoSat-2 observations compare similarly to the model without assimilation in this region. Comparison with airborne electromagnetic induction (Air-EM) combined measurements of SIT and snow depth shows poorer results for the assimilation compared to the control, despite covering similar locations to the OIB and BGEP datasets. This may be evidence of sampling uncertainty in the matchups with the Air-EM validation dataset, owing to the limited number of observations available over the time period of interest. This may also be evidence of noise in the SIT analysis or uncertainties in the modelled snow depth, in the assimilated SIT observations, or in the data used for validation. The SIT analysis could be improved by upgrading the observation uncertainties used in the assimilation. Despite the lack of CryoSat-2 SIT observations available for assimilation over the summer due to the detrimental effect of melt ponds on retrievals, it is shown that the model is able to retain improvements to the SIT field throughout the summer months due to prior, wintertime SIT assimilation. This also results in regional improvements to the July modelled sea ice concentration (SIC) of 5 % RMSD in the European sector, due to slower melt of the thicker sea ice.

Emma K. Fiedler↗