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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida Using the ARPS Data Analysis System

This paper describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) efforts to configure, implement, and test a version of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996) that assimilates all available data within 250 km of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Eastern Range at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The objective for running a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) such as ADAS is to generate products which may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of ground and aerospace operations at KSC/CCAS. A LDIS such as ADAS has the potential to provide added value because it combines observational data to produce gridded analyses of temperature, wind, and moisture (including clouds) and diagnostic quantities such as vorticity, divergence, etc. at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. In this regard, a LDTS along with suitable visualization tools may provide users with a ignore complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time. The AMU implemented a working prototype of the ADAS which does not run in real-time. Instead, the AMU is evaluating ADAS through post-analyses of weather events for a warm and cool season case. The case studies were chosen to investigate the capabilities and limitations of a LDIS such as ADAS including the impact of non-incorporation of specific data sources on the utility of the subsequent analyses.

Case, Jonathan↗

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Third Quarter FY · 13

The AMU team worked on seven tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford completed the objective lightning forecast tool for east -central Florida airports and delivered the tool and the final report to the customers. (2) Ms. Shafer continued work for Vandenberg Air Force Base on an automated tool to relate pressure gradients to peak winds. (3) Dr. Huddleston updated and delivered the tool that shows statistics on the timing of the first lightning strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) area. (4) Dr. Bauman continued work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on the Eastern Range (ER). (5) Ms. Crawford acquired the software and radar data needed to create a dual-Doppler analysis over the east-central Florida and KSC/CCAFS areas. (6) Mr. Decker continued developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles. (7) Dr. Watson continued work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations she created for Wallops Flight Facility and the ER.

Bauman, William↗

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗

WISE 2150-7520AB: A Very Low-mass, Wide Comoving Brown Dwarf System Discovered through the Citizen Science Project Backyard Worlds: Planet 9

We report the discovery of WISE 2150-7520AB (W2150AB): a widely separated (∼341 au) very low-mass L1 + T8 co-moving system. The system consists of the previously known L1 primary 2MASS J21501592-7520367 and a newly discovered T8 secondary found at position 21:50:18.99–75:20:54.6 (MJD = 57947) using Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer data via the Backyard Worlds: Planet 9 citizen science project. We present Spitzer ch1 and ch2 photometry (ch1–ch2 = 1.41 ± 0.04 mag) of the secondary and Folded-port InfraRed Echellette prism spectra of both components. The sources show no peculiar spectral or photometric signatures, indicating that each component is likely field age. Using all observed data and the Gaia DR2 parallax of 41.3593 ± 0.2799 mas for W2150A we deduce fundamental parameters of log(L(bol)/L(☉)) = −3.69 ± 0.01, T(eff) = 2118 ± 62 K, and an estimated mass = 72 ± 12 M(Jup) for the L1 and log(L(bol)/L(☉)) = −5.64 ± 0.02, T(eff) = 719 ± 61 K, and an estimated mass = 34 ± 22 M(Jup) for the T8. At a physical separation of ∼341 au this system has E(bin) = 1041 erg, making it the lowest binding energy system of any pair with M(tot) < 0.1 M(Sun) not associated with a young cluster. It is equivalent in estimated mass ratio, E(bin), and physical separation to the ∼2 Myr M7.25 + M8.25 binary brown dwarf 2MASS J11011926-7732383AB (2M1101AB) found in the Chameleon star-forming region. W2150AB is the widest companion system yet observed in the field where the primary is an L dwarf or later.

Jacqueline Faherty↗

On asymmetric dark matter constraints from the asteroseismology of a subgiant star

ABSTRACT The asteroseismic modelling of solar-like stars has proved to be valuable in constraining dark matter. In this work, we study for the first time the influence of asymmetric dark matter (ADM) in the evolution of a subgiant star (KIC 8228742) by direct comparison with observational data. Both spectroscopic and seismic data are analysed with a new approach to the stellar calibration method, in which DM properties can also be considered as free inputs. In another phase of this study, a calibrated standard stellar model (without DM) is used as the benchmark for DM models. We find that the latter models consistently outperform the former for 10−40 ≤ σSD < 10−38 cm2, hinting that the presence of ADM in stars of this type does not go against observations. Moreover, we show that stellar seismology allows us to suggest exclusion limits that complement the constraints set by direct detection experiments. Different seismic observables are proposed to study DM properties and ΔΠℓ is found to be the most reliable, having the potential to build future DM exclusion diagrams. This new methodology can be a powerful tool in the analysis of the data coming from the next generation of asteroseismic missions.

Rato, João (ORCID:0000000320802361)↗

Nonlinear and linear timescales near kinetic scales in solar wind turbulence

The application of linear kinetic treatments to plasma waves, damping, and instability requires favorable inequalities between the associated linear timescales and timescales for nonlinear (e.g., turbulence) evolution. In the solar wind these two types of timescales may be directly compared using standard Kolmogorov-style analysis and observational data. The estimated local (in scale) nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic cascade times, evaluated as relevant kinetic scales are approached, remain slower than the cyclotron period, but comparable to or faster than the typical timescales of instabilities, anisotropic waves, and wave damping. The variation with length scale of the turbulence timescales is supported by observations and simulations. On this basis the use of linear theory—which assumes constant parameters to calculate the associated kinetic rates—may be questioned. It is suggested that the product of proton gyrofrequency and nonlinear time at the ion gyroscales provides a simple measure of turbulence influence on proton kinetic behavior.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

How Well Can CMIP6 Models Represent the Observed Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall?

This study evaluates the ability of CMIP6 climate models to simulate the observed effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability. Using observational data and the large ensemble historical simulations of seven CMIP6 models from 1950 to 2014, we applied a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to isolate the impacts of tropical Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs and their interaction on the interannual variability of ISMR. Overall, CMIP6 models well reproduced the observed enhanced (reduced) ISMR variability from Pacific SSTAs (Indian Ocean SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction), but with varying spatial patterns and magnitudes. While CESM2 and E3SM-2-0 showed the best agreement with observations for the effects of Pacific SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction, respectively, CMIP6 models showed mixed results for the impacts from Indian Ocean SSTAs. Composite analysis of ISMR anomalies during the developing phases of pure and co-occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events revealed that the impacts from Pacific SSTAs were captured reasonably well by E3SM-2-0, CESM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, while E3SM-2-0 also showed the best agreement with observations for the effects from the Indo-Pacific interaction. However, all models showed substantial biases in simulating the Indian Ocean SSTA impacts on ISMR, especially for pure El Niño events. Overall, this study provides new insights into how individual CMIP6 models simulate the isolated impacts from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, which has important applications for improving ISMR predictions and interpreting ISMR future projections.

monsoon↗

REFINED SYSTEM PARAMETERS AND TTV STUDY OF TRANSITING EXOPLANETARY SYSTEM HAT-P-20

We report new photometric observations of the transiting exoplanetary system HAT-P-20, obtained using CCD cameras at Yunnan Observatories and Ho Koon Nature Education cum Astronomical Centre, China, from 2010 to 2013, and Observatori Ca l’Ou, Sant Marti Sesgueioles, Spain, from 2013 to 2015. The observed data are corrected for systematic errors according to the coarse de-correlation and SYSREM algorithms, so as to enhance the signal of the transit events. In order to consistently model the star spots and transits of this exoplanetary system, we develop a highly efficient tool STMT based on the analytic models of Mandel and Agol and Montalto et al. The physical parameters of HAT-P-20 are refined by homogeneously analyzing our new data, the radial velocity data, and the earlier photometric data in the literature with the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. New radii and masses of both host star and planet are larger than those in the discovery paper due to the discrepancy of the radius among K-dwarfs between predicted values by standard stellar models and empirical calibration from observations. Through the analysis of all available mid-transit times calculated with the normal model and spotted model, we conclude that the periodic transit timing variations in these transit events revealed by employing the normal model are probably induced by spot crossing events. From the analysis of the distribution of occulted spots by HAT-P-20b, we constrain the misaligned architecture between the planetary orbit and the spin of the host star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multifrequency observations of symbiotic stars

The discovery of symbiotic stars is described, and the results of multifrequency observations made during the past two decades are presented. Observational data identify symbiotic stars as long-period binary systems that can be divided into two basic physical classes: detached symbiotics containing a red giant (or a Mira variable), and semidetached symbiotics containing a lobe-filling red giant and a solar-type main sequence star. Three components are typically observed: (1) the cool giant component with an effective temperature of 2500-4000 K, which can be divided by the IR spectral classification into normal M giants (S-types) and heavily reddened Mira variables (D-types); (2) the hot companion displaying a bright blue continuum at UV wavelengths, which is sometimes also an X-ray source; and (3) a gaseous nebula enveloping the binary.

Kenyon, Scott J.↗

Dome Degradation Characterization of Wide-Field-of-View Nonscanner Aboard ERBE and Its Reprocessing

Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) wide-field-of-view (WFOV) nonscanners aboard ERBS and NOAA- 9/NOAA-10 provided broadband shortwave and longwave irradiances from 1985 to 1999. The previous analysis showed dome degradation in the shortwave nonscanner instruments. The correction was performed with a constant spectral (gray assumption) degradation. We suspect that the gray assumption affected daytime longwave irradiance and led to a day-minus-night longwave flux differences (little change in night time longwave) increase over time. Based on knowledge from the CERES process, we will reprocess entire ERBE nonscanner radiation dataset by characterizing shortwave dome transmissivity with spectral dependent degradation using the solar data observed by these instruments. Once spectral dependent degradation is derived, imager derived cloud fraction and the cloud phase as well as surface type over the FOV of nonscanner instruments will be used to model unfiltering coefficients. This poster primarily explains the reprocessing techniques and includes initial comparison of several months of data processed with existing and our recent methods.

Shrestha, Alok K.↗

Structure of Offshore Low-Level Jet Turbulence and Implications to Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling

This paper explores realistic nonstationary atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence arising from nonstationarity at the mesoscale, particularly within offshore low-level jets with implications to offshore wind farms, using high-fidelity multiscale large-eddy simulations (LES). To this end, we analyzed the single-point turbulence statistical structure of a North-Atlantic offshore LLJ event simulated using high-resolution LES (AMR-Wind). The nonstationary LLJ is simulated using a mesoscale-to-microscale coupled (MMC) simulation procedure involving data assimilation of mesoscale velocity and temperature data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Unlike the assimilation of mesoscale velocity data into the LES, the direct assimilation of temperature profiles had a strong impact on turbulence stratification, thereby causing erroneous predictions of turbulence both above and within the jet layer. Various approaches to mitigate this effect have resulted in multiple (four) variants of this MMC strategy. Outcomes from this work clearly show that the turbulence within the low-level jet is a strong function of the MMC approach as the turbulence structure within the low-level jet is dependent on the flux of residual turbulence from outside the jet, which in turn depends on the temperature forcing history. Additionally, the turbulence predicted by all these different methods (as well as the observation data) show similar deviations from equilibrium as evidenced by comparisons with idealized atmospheric turbulence structure obtained using the same numerical method. In general, we observe that the predicted LLJ turbulence tends to differ from canonical ABL turbulence with comparable shear. Particularly, the combination of shear and turbulence observed in such nonstationary low-level turbulence cannot be matched using equilibrium settings and therefore, represents a critical use-case for both testing and leveraging meso–micro coupling strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling methane emissions from arctic lakes: Model development and site‐level study

Abstract To date, methane emissions from lakes in the pan‐arctic region are poorly quantified. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from this region to global warming, a process‐based climate‐sensitive lake biogeochemical model was developed. The processes of methane production, oxidation, and transport were modeled within a one‐dimensional sediment and water column. The sizes of 14 C‐enriched and 14 C‐depleted carbon pools were explicitly parameterized. The model was validated using observational data from five lakes located in Siberia and Alaska, representing a large variety of environmental conditions in the arctic. The model simulations agreed well with the measured water temperature and dissolved CH 4 concentration (mean error less than 1°C and 0.2 μM, respectively). The modeled CH 4 fluxes were consistent with observations in these lakes. We found that bubbling‐rate‐controlling nitrogen (N 2 ) stripping was the most important factor in determining CH 4 fraction in bubbles. Lake depth and ice cover thickness in shallow waters were also controlling factors. This study demonstrated that the thawing of Pleistocene‐aged organic‐rich yedoma can fuel sediment methanogenesis by supplying a large quantity of labile organic carbon. Observations and modeling results both confirmed that methane emission rate at thermokarst margins of yedoma lakes was much larger (up to 538 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 ) than that at nonthermokarst zones in the same lakes and a nonyedoma, nonthermokarst lake (less than 42 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 ). The seasonal variability of methane emissions can be explained primarily by energy input and organic carbon availability.

Tan, Zeli↗

The minimal curvaton-higgs model

We present the first full study of the minimal curvaton-higgs (MCH) model, which is a minimal interpretation of the curvaton scenario with one real scalar coupled to the standard model Higgs boson. The standard model coupling allows the dynamics of the model to be determined in detail, including effects from the thermal background and from radiative corrections to the potential. The relevant mechanisms for curvaton decay are incomplete non-perturbative decay (delayed by thermal blocking), followed by decay via a dimension-5 non-renormalisable operator. To avoid spoiling the predictions of big bang nucleosynthesis, we find the ''bare'' curvaton mass to be m{sub σ} ≥ 8 × 10{sup 4}GeV. To match observational data from Planck there is an upper limit on the curvaton-higgs coupling g, between 10{sup −3} and 10{sup −2}, depending on the mass. This is due to interactions with the thermal background. We find that typically non-Gaussianities are small but that if f{sub NL} is observed in the near future then m{sub σ}∼<5 × 10{sup 9}GeV, depending on Hubble scale during inflation. In a thermal dark matter model, the lower bound on m{sub σ} can increase substantially. The parameter space may also be affected once the baryogenesis mechanism is specified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stellar spectral synthesis in the ultraviolet

A computer program for spectral synthesis has been developed, based on a list of data for atomic lines described by Kurucz, Peytremann, and Avrett (1973). To demonstrate the usefulness of this program, we present a sample calculation of the region around the C IV resonance doublet at 155 nm, which is a feature in rocket and satellite spectra of B stars. The calculation indicates that the observed feature is a blend of many lines in addition to C IV, so that detailed calculations are necessary for the correct interpretation of the observational data.

Kurucz, R. L.↗

Antarctic springtime ozone depletion computed from temperature observations

An observationally based, mechanistic dynamical model is used to simulate the decline of total ozone during September and October for the years 1979 through 1986. Vertical velocities derived from observed stratospheric temperature changes and computed radiative heating rates are used to advect an ozone mixing ratio profile during the Antarctic spring period. An early August 1982 Syowa balloonsonde ozone profile is used to initialize the computations. The model reasonably simulates the September and October changes in total ozone, considering the uncertainties in the observed data and the radiative heating. The simulated decline is found to be very sensitive to the choice of initial ozone profile and to small changes in the radiative heating. The results of this study suggest that the dynamical hypothesis of the Antarctic ozone depletion is both quantitatively credible and consistent with the observed temperature changes.

Rosenfield, Joan E.↗

An X-Ray Analysis Database of Photoionization Cross Sections Including Variable Ionization

Results of research efforts in the following areas are discussed: review of the major theoretical and experimental data of subshell photoionization cross sections and ionization edges of atomic ions to assess the accuracy of the data, and to compile the most reliable of these data in our own database; detailed atomic physics calculations to complement the database for all ions of 17 cosmically abundant elements; reconciling the data from various sources and our own calculations; and fitting cross sections with functional approximations and incorporating these functions into a compact computer code.Also, efforts included adapting an ionization equilibrium code, tabulating results, and incorporating them into the overall program and testing the code (both ionization equilibrium and opacity codes) with existing observational data. The background and scientific applications of this work are discussed. Atomic physics cross section models and calculations are described. Calculation results are compared with available experimental data and other theoretical data. The functional approximations used for fitting cross sections are outlined and applications of the database are discussed.

Wang, Ping↗

Generating Emissions Inventory for Carbon Capture and Storage Analysis for Carbon-Intensive Industrial Sectors

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is critical to achieve carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions goals of the Biden Administration. Currently available decarbonization options include electrification, fuel switching to zero carbon fuels like green hydrogen (H2) and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Application of post-combustion carbon capture (PCCC) technology in the power sector, as well as research at the U.S. Department of Energy's Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) Office has shown that its application in the industrial sector could have co-benefits in the form of emissions reductions of non-CO2 regulated pollutants. For example, solvent based PCCC systems require pre-conditioning of flue gas to remove sulfur and particulate matter (PM) upstream of the CO2 absorber. However, there is a lack of understanding about the type of non-CO2 pollutants which can be captured and the amount of reduction possible. PCCC application differs across industrial sectors as it depends on the availability of decarbonization options, characteristics of industrial processes and the amount and composition of pollutant flows. Certain facilities can also have multiple effluent flows with or without a CO2 stream. As such, understanding industrial processes and their effluent flows in detail is required to quantify the co-benefits opportunities presented by PCCC. Considering this requirement, the goal of this analysis is to develop a high-resolution inventory of effluent flows from facilities of 8 industrial sectors in the U.S. These industrial sectors - ethanol, ammonia, cement, steel, natural gas processing, hydrogen, petroleum refining and wood and pulp products - have carbon-intensive effluent flows, and thus are prime candidates for PCCC applications. In this study, we map the composition of pollutant flow from flue stacks across the identified facilities. Using data available in three Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) databases - the Green House Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI), we create a combined inventory which lists the type, amount, and concentration of pollutant flows. Using total weight of the pollutant flow back calculated from observed data for CO2 concentrations in flue gas for individual sectors, we calculate the concentration of each pollutant in the flue gas stream. Thus, the resultant emissions inventory includes the following details for each facility in the sector: facility-level and if possible, process-level pollutant flows, concentrations of pollutants in the flue gas, and geographical coordinates of the facilities. A detailed statistical analysis and summary allows us to search for erroneous data and remove them from the final inventory. The generation of the inventory is achieved using a python-based framework which can recreate this inventory for other industrial sectors as well as using newer releases of emission inventories from EPA. The statistical analysis performed on the inventory is also calibrated and automated to identify outliers efficiently.

air pollutants↗

Assessment of chemo-mechanical impacts of CO 2 sequestration on the caprock formation in Farnsworth oil field, Texas

This study evaluates the chemo-mechanical influence of injected CO 2 on the Morrow B sandstone reservoir and the upper Morrow shale caprock utilizing data from the inverted 5-spot pattern centered on Well 13-10A within the Farnsworth unit (FWU). This study also seeks to evaluate the integrity of the caprock and the long-term CO 2 storage capability of the FWU. The inverted 5-spot pattern was extracted from the field-scale model and tuned with the available field observed data before the modeling work. Two coupled numerical simulation models were utilized to continue the study. First, a coupled hydro-geochemical model was constructed to simulate the dissolution and precipitation of formation minerals by modeling three intra-aqueous and six mineral reactions. In addition, a coupled hydro-geomechanical model was constructed and employed to study the effects of stress changes on the caprock’s porosity, permeability, and ground displacement. The Mohr–Coulomb circle and failure envelope were used to determine caprock failure. In this work, the CO 2 -WAG injection is followed by the historical field-observed strategy. During the forecasting period, a Water Alternating Gas (WAG) injection ratio of 1:3 was utilized with a baseline bottom-hole pressure constraint of 5500 psi for 20 years. A post-injection period of 1000 years was simulated to monitor the CO 2 plume and its effects on the CO 2 storage reservoir and caprock integrity. The simulation results indicated that the impacts of the geochemical reactions on the porosity of the caprock were insignificant as it experienced a decrease of about 0.0003% at the end of the 1000-year post-injection monitoring. On the other hand, the maximum stress-induced porosity change was about a 1.4% increase, resulting in about 4% in permeability change. It was estimated that about 3.3% of the sequestered CO 2 in the formation interacted with the caprock. Despite these petrophysical property alterations and CO 2 interactions in the caprock, the caprock still maintained its elastic properties and was determined to be far from its failure.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗