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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS1976

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1976

Remote sensing of chlorophyll in an atmosphere-ocean environment - A theoretical study

A Monte Carlo program was written to compute the effect of chlorophyll on the ratio of upwelling to downwelling radiance and irradiance as a function of wavelength, height above the ocean, and depth within the ocean. This program simulates the actual physical situation, since a real atmospheric model was used, i.e., one that contained both aerosol and Rayleigh scattering as well as ozone absorption. The complete interaction of the radiation field with the ocean was also taken into account. The chlorophyll was assumed to be uniformly mixed in the ocean and was also assumed to act only as an absorbing agent. For the ocean model both scattering and absorption by hydrosols was included. Results have been obtained for both a very clear ocean and a medium turbid ocean. Recommendations are made for optimum techniques for remotely sensing chlorophyll both in situ and in vitro.

Kattawar, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Reflected solar radiances from broken cloud scenes and the interpretation of scanner measurements

If an adequate model of the reflection characteristics of a given scene is available, the reflected solar irradiance from the scene may be determined from radiance measurements made by satellite-borne scanning radiometers. A theoretical analysis of the reflection functions of broken cloud scenes is presented, using Monte Carlo simulations of the radiative transfer in various three-dimensional geometries. It is shown that the reflection functions of horizontally extensive (stratiform) and horizontally limited (cumuliform) clouds are generally quite different. The differences are greatest for nadir and limb views, but tend to vanish for reflected radiances with a zenith angle of 60 deg. Applications to satellite observations suggest potential errors of a factor of 2 in the inferred irradiance are likely due to scene misidentification when the radiances are interpreted indiscriminantly. Selection of preferred satellite viewing directions, however, can significantly reduce this error.

Davies, R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Simulated performance of the NASA 30/20 GHz test transponder using multi-H phase coded modulation

The performance of a proposed NASA 30/20 GHz satellite communications system is studied for multi-h phase coded modulation (MHPM) schemes. The techniques used to model and simulate a satellite communications channel including transmitter, receiver, filters, nonlinearities, and interferers are presented. The performance of various MHPM schemes is compared for several different channel configurations. As a measure of performance, the probability of bit error vs Eb/NO is computed using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. It is found that, regardless of the channel configuration, MHPM schemes can provide power efficiency over serial minimum shift keying modulation.

Meader, C. B.↗

NASA NTRS1985

An APL program for the distribution of energy deposition by charged particles passing through thin absorbers

An APL program which numerically evaluates the probability density function (PDF) for the energy deposited in a thin absorber by a charged particle is proposed, with application to the construction, pointing, and control of spacecraft. With this program, the PDF of the restricted energy loss distribution of Watts (1973) is derived, and Vavilov's (1957) distribution is obtained by proper parameter selection. The method is demonstrated with the example of the effect of charged particle induced radiation on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) pointing accuracy. A Monte Carlo study simulates the photon noise caused by charged particles passing through the photomultiplier tube window, and the stochastic variation of energy loss is introduced into the simulation by generating random energy losses from a power law distribution. The program eliminates annoying loop procedures, and model parameter sensitivity can be studied using the graphical output.

Howell, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The response of cloud tops to radiative forcing

A longwave radiative transfer model was developed to study the effects on clouds of radiative loss of thermal energy from boundary layer cloud tops. Spectral properties of the drop size distributions are considered with Mie theory and LOWTRAN 6 gas transmission, which is combined with pathlength distributions from a Monte Carlo simulation, are used to obtain a 20/cm spectral resolution. Results are provided from a simulation of radiative cooling, at various wavelengths, of a 500 m thick cloud with a top at 2 km altitude. The very high values generated for the rates of cooling, of change of the liquid water content and of droplet growth rates indicate that cloud tops respond dynamically to strong thermal forcing.

Alves, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

In Pursuit of Abundance Anomalies and the FIP Effect in Late-Type Stellar Coronae

Key EUVE and ASCA data have been retrieved from their respective archives. New software has been written in the IDL language to carry out data analysis and to interface with the relevant atomic physics databases. During the analysis of ASCA spectra, it was found that the abundances of elements other than Fe could not be constrained very well, and Fe abundances were not constrained unless the underlying emission measure distribution model was reasonably well-determined. Consequently, the study has concentrated on the quantity Fe/H. A method has been developed as a means of deriving Fe/H based on fitting the continuum to EUVE spectra, thereby using the Fe lines to determine the Fe abundance. A Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm was also developed to determine the emission measure distribution based on observed spectral lines. This is the first application of this type of monte carlo approach to this scientific problem. This work has resulted in three scientific publications, one of which published, one of which is now ready for submission and the other of which is still in preparation:

Drake, Jeremy↗

NASA NTRS2026

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗

NASA NTRS2008

Modeling Ablation of Fibrous Materials from Bulk to Knudsen Regime

Material-environment interactions are analyzed at microscopic scale to explain the lower than expected density observed by post-flight analysis of the char layer on the Stardust shield. Mass transfer, ablation (oxidation), and surface recession of fibrous material is simulated in 3D using a Monte-Carlo simulation tool. Ablation is found to occur either at the surface or in volume depending on Knudsen and Thiele number values. This study supports the idea of volume ablation followed by possible carbon fiber spallation that may explain post-flight analyses.

Lachaud, Jean↗

NASA NTRS1978

X-ray transfer in binary systems - A Monte Carlo study

Results are presented for Monte Carlo calculations of X-ray light curves for binary systems surrounded by clouds with simple density distributions, chemical compositions, and ionization structures. Occultation of the X radiation by the companion star is taken into account along with Compton scattering and photoionization within the clouds. The models are used to examine the effect of various cloud geometries and ionization structures on the emergent X-ray flux as a function of orbital phase and X-ray energy. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of observed light curves and phase-dependent spectra with respect to the optical depth, geometry, and ionization structure of a surrounding cloud for the cases of a uniform-density cloud with a radius four times the binary orbital separation, a steady-state constant-velocity stellar wind emanating from the companion star, and a spherically symmetric shell or 'cocoon' of the type proposed for Cyg X-3. It is concluded that X-ray binary systems are unlikely to be surrounded by obscuring clouds.

Hertz, P.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Regularized Monte-Carlo calculations of the optical polarization induced by scattering in X-ray binaries

The results of regularized Monte Carlo calculations of the optical polarization Stokes parameters expected as a result of scattering from gas streams or accretion wakes in close binary systems whose properties resemble those of X-ray binaries are presented. The physical processes occurring in the system are represented by a model which follows a selected sample of individual photon paths from each emitting element on the surface of the primary to the photon's detection at earth. The result represents the variations in the intensity from each individual emitting element caused by the effects of limb darkening, gravity darkening, and variation in the projected area of the emitting element as seen from the scattering element.

Dolan, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Update on the Status of the FLUKA Monte Carlo Transport Code

The FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code is a well-known simulation tool in High Energy Physics. FLUKA is a dynamic tool in the sense that it is being continually updated and improved by the authors. Here we review the progresses achieved in the last year on the physics models. From the point of view of hadronic physics, most of the effort is still in the field of nucleus--nucleus interactions. The currently available version of FLUKA already includes the internal capability to simulate inelastic nuclear interactions beginning with lab kinetic energies of 100 MeV/A up the the highest accessible energies by means of the DPMJET-II.5 event generator to handle the interactions for greater than 5 GeV/A and rQMD for energies below that. The new developments concern, at high energy, the embedding of the DPMJET-III generator, which represent a major change with respect to the DPMJET-II structure. This will also allow to achieve a better consistency between the nucleus-nucleus section with the original FLUKA model for hadron-nucleus collisions. Work is also in progress to implement a third event generator model based on the Master Boltzmann Equation approach, in order to extend the energy capability from 100 MeV/A down to the threshold for these reactions. In addition to these extended physics capabilities, structural changes to the programs input and scoring capabilities are continually being upgraded. In particular we want to mention the upgrades in the geometry packages, now capable of reaching higher levels of abstraction. Work is also proceeding to provide direct import into ROOT of the FLUKA output files for analysis and to deploy a user-friendly GUI input interface.

Pinsky, L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Update On the Status of the FLUKA Monte Carlo Transport Code*

The FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code is a well-known simulation tool in High Energy Physics. FLUKA is a dynamic tool in the sense that it is being continually updated and improved by the authors. We review the progress achieved since the last CHEP Conference on the physics models, some technical improvements to the code and some recent applications. From the point of view of the physics, improvements have been made with the extension of PEANUT to higher energies for p, n, pi, pbar/nbar and for nbars down to the lowest energies, the addition of the online capability to evolve radioactive products and get subsequent dose rates, upgrading of the treatment of EM interactions with the elimination of the need to separately prepare preprocessed files. A new coherent photon scattering model, an updated treatment of the photo-electric effect, an improved pair production model, new photon cross sections from the LLNL Cullen database have been implemented. In the field of nucleus-- nucleus interactions the electromagnetic dissociation of heavy ions has been added along with the extension of the interaction models for some nuclide pairs to energies below 100 MeV/A using the BME approach, as well as the development of an improved QMD model for intermediate energies. Both DPMJET 2.53 and 3 remain available along with rQMD 2.4 for heavy ion interactions above 100 MeV/A. Technical improvements include the ability to use parentheses in setting up the combinatorial geometry, the introduction of pre-processor directives in the input stream. a new random number generator with full 64 bit randomness, new routines for mathematical special functions (adapted from SLATEC). Finally, work is progressing on the deployment of a user-friendly GUI input interface as well as a CAD-like geometry creation and visualization tool. On the application front, FLUKA has been used to extensively evaluate the potential space radiation effects on astronauts for future deep space missions, the activation dose for beam target areas, dose calculations for radiation therapy as well as being adapted for use in the simulation of events in the ALICE detector at the LHC.

Ferrari, A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Effects of the Serber First Step in 3DHZETRN-v2.1

3DHZETRN-v2 includes a detailed three dimensional (3D) treatment of neutron/light-ion transport based on a quasi-elastic/multiple-production assumption allowing improved agreement of the neutron/light-ion fluence compared with results of three Monte Carlo (MC) codes in the sense that the variance with respect to the individual MC results is less than the variance among the MC code results. The current numerical methods are no longer the main limitation to HZETRN code development and further changes in the nuclear model are required. In a prior study, an improved quasi-elastic spectrum based on a solution of the transport approximation to nuclear media effects showed promise, but the remaining multiple-production spectrum was based on a database derived from the Ranft model that used Bertini multiplicities. In the present paper, we will implement a more complete Serber first step into the 3DHZETRN-v2 code, but we retain the Bertini-Ranft branching ratios and evaporation multiplicities. It is shown that the new Serber model in the 3HZETRN-v2 code reduces the variance with individual MC codes, which are largely due to nuclear cross section model differences.

Wilson, John W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Discrete Rotational Energy for Polyatomic Molecules in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

The environments experienced by vehicles upon entry into planetary atmospheres generally result in severe aerothermodynamic loading. These flows are characterized by the formation of strong shock waves, behind which high temperatures and non-equilibrium environments are generated, and the accurate prediction of internal energy relaxation and chemical kinetics becomes important. This manuscript focuses on the internal relaxation of the rotational energy of polyatomic molecules. Previous work has described the implementation of a discrete rotational energy model for diatomic molecules (linear rotators). Later, Gimelshein et. al extended this model to include polyatomic molecular internal energies. However, they did not include details on how to generate the particles at equilibrium conditions and centrifugal distortion was not included in their model. The purpose of the present study is to extend the afore-mentioned models to the treatment of discrete rotational energy in polyatomic molecules with the addition of centrifugal distortion. An overview of the background theory needed for the implementation of the model will be given followed by the model itself and verification of the model. For example, sampled versus Boltzmann distributions are compared in Figure 1 for CH3 (oblate rotator – two quantum numbers) and examples of thermal relaxation behavior for linear and non-linear rotators are presented in Figure 2. In addition, comparisons of thermophysical properties will be presented, as well as examples of adiabatic relaxation and application to hypersonic flow.

Rarefied Gas Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS1995

Bidirectional reflectance of oceanic waters: A comparison of modeled and measured upward radiance fields

The bidirectional reflectance of oceanic waters is conveniently described in a normalized way by forming the ratio of the upwelling irradiance E(sub u) to any upwelling radiance L(sub u)(theta prime, phi). This ratio, Q (theta prime, theta(sub 0), (phi(sub 0) - phi), where theta prime, phi are the nadir and azimuth angles for the upward radiance and theta(sub 0), phi(sub 0) are the zenith and azimuth angles of the Sun, has been determined from measurements at sea and computed via Monte Carlo simulations using the inherent optical properties measured in the field and appropriate boundary conditions (clear sky, no wind, varying Sun angle). Experimental ad computed Q values are in excellent agreement. This successful comparison confirms the importance of the bidirectional character of ocean reflectance, already pointed out from a purely numerical approach without field validation, and corroborates the extended range of the Q variations. The later point is of importance when interpreting the marine signals detected by an ocean color satellite-borne sensor. The validation is extended by considering the historical data for the radiance distributions in Lake Pend Oreille determined at various depths. The closure issue in ocean optics is examined by solving the direct problem of radiative transfer and through a model-data comparison in terms of radiance field.

Morel, Andre↗

NASA NTRS1988

Identification of terrain cover using the optimum polarimetric classifier

A systematic approach for the identification of terrain media such as vegetation canopy, forest, and snow-covered fields is developed using the optimum polarimetric classifier. The covariance matrices for various terrain cover are computed from theoretical models of random medium by evaluating the scattering matrix elements. The optimal classification scheme makes use of a quadratic distance measure and is applied to classify a vegetation canopy consisting of both trees and grass. Experimentally measured data are used to validate the classification scheme. Analytical and Monte Carlo simulated classification errors using the fully polarimetric feature vector are compared with classification based on single features which include the phase difference between the VV and HH polarization returns. It is shown that the full polarimetric results are optimal and provide better classification performance than single feature measurements.

Kong, J. A.↗