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DOE OSTI2025

Bias correcting regional scale Earth system model projections: novel approach using empirical mode decomposition

Bias correction is a crucial step in using Earth system model outputs for assessments, as it adjusts systematic errors by comparing the model to observations. However, standard methods – ranging from mean-based linear scaling to distribution-based quantile mapping typically treat bias correction as a single-scale process, overlooking the fact that biases can manifest differently across daily, seasonal, and annual timescales. In this study, we propose a novel, timescale-aware bias-correction approach built on Empirical Mode Decomposition. By decomposing the meteorological signal into multiple oscillatory components and aggregating them to represent distinct timescales, we apply targeted corrections to each component, thereby preserving both short- and long-term structure in the data. Experimental illustrations show that the timescale-aware EMDBC framework matches the performance of conventional quantile-delta mapping (QDM) at the native daily scale and achieves progressively larger bias reductions at bi-weekly, seasonal, and annual scales. As a result, the proposed approach offers a more robust path to accurate and reliable Earth system projections, strengthening their utility for resilience and adaptation planning.

Ganguli, Arkaprabha [Argonne National Laboratory (↗

NASA NTRS1973

LAGEOS mission analyses

Two error sources are found to be compatible and significant for the parameters affecting the LAGEOS mission. The first error source is the uncertainty in the gravity model, and the second error source is the radiation pressure which includes direct radiation, albedo radiation, and earth shine. Retrograde orbits increase the number of passes per day over the tracking stations at the expense of also increasing the number of time gaps when no station is observing. It is shown that relativistic effects are significant and must be included in orbit computation and determination systems for this mission. If station locations are known only to one meter, the error in the satellite orbits is comparable with solar pressure induced errors.

Squires, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The influence of turbulence models on computer-simulated aircraft landing

Three models of simulated atmospheric turbulence were used to determine their respective influence on a computer-simulated, DC-8 type, aircraft landing. Statistical results based on a sample of 20 simulated landings illustrate the influence of turbulence simulated by the different models. For the same spectrum function, a non-Gaussian turbulence model produces the higher degree of touchdown variability. When different spectrum functions are used the von Karman model induces a smaller standard deviation in position error than the Dryden model. The turbulence energy contained by the higher frequency fluctuation has little effect on the landing position.

Frost, W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Postlaunch calibration of spacecraft attitude instruments

The accuracy of both onboard and ground attitude determination can be significantly enhanced by calibrating spacecraft attitude instruments (sensors) after launch. Although attitude sensors are accurately calibrated before launch, the stresses of launch and the space environment inevitably cause changes in sensor parameters. During the mission, these parameters may continue to drift requiring repeated on-orbit calibrations. The goal of attitude sensor calibration is to reduce the systematic errors in the measurement models. There are two stages at which systematic errors may enter. The first occurs in the conversion of sensor output into an observation vector in the sensor frame. The second occurs in the transformation of the vector from the sensor frame to the spacecraft attitude reference frame. This paper presents postlaunch alignment and transfer function calibration of the attitude sensors for the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO), the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), and the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE).

Davis, W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Annual Research Briefs, 1998

The topics contained in this progress report are direct numerical simulation of turbulent non-premixed combustion with realistic chemistry; LES of non-premixed turbulent reacting flows with conditional source term estimation; measurements of the three-dimensional scalar dissipation rate in gas-phase planar turbulent jets; direct simulation of a jet diffusion flame; on the use of interpolating wavelets in the direct numerical simulation of combustion; on the use of a dynamically adaptive wavelet collocation algorithm in DNS (direct numerical simulation) of non-premixed turbulent combustion; 2D simulations of Hall thrusters; computation of trailing-edge noise at low mach number using LES and acoustic analogy; weakly nonlinear modeling of the early stages of bypass transition; interactions between freestream turbulence and boundary layers; interfaces at the outer boundaries of turbulent motions; largest scales of turbulent wall flows; the instability of streaks in near-wall turbulence; an implementation of the v(sup 2) - f model with application to transonic flows; heat transfer predictions in cavities; a structure-based model with stropholysis effects; modeling a confined swirling coaxial jet; subgrid-scale models based on incremental unknowns for large eddy simulations; subgrid scale modeling taking the numerical error into consideration; towards a near-wall model for LES of a separated diffuser flow; on the feasibility of merging LES with RANS (Reynolds Averaging Numerical simulation) for the near-wall region of attached turbulent flows; large-eddy simulation of a separated boundary layer; numerical study of a channel flow with variable properties; on the construction of high order finite difference schemes on non-uniform meshes with good conservation properties; development of immersed boundary methods for complex geometries; and particle methods for micro and macroscale flow simulations.

Spinks, Debra↗

NASA NTRS2011

Adaptive System Modeling for Spacecraft Simulation

This invention introduces a methodology and associated software tools for automatically learning spacecraft system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques were used to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). Evaluation on historical ISS telemetry data shows that adaptive system modeling reduces simulation error anywhere from 50 to 90 percent over existing approaches. The purpose of the methodology is to outline how someone can create accurate system models from sensor (telemetry) data. The purpose of the software is to support the methodology. The software provides analysis tools to design the adaptive models. The software also provides the algorithms to initially build system models and continuously update them from the latest streaming sensor data. The main strengths are as follows: Creates accurate spacecraft system models without in-depth system knowledge or any assumptions about system behavior. Automatically updates/calibrates system models using the latest streaming sensor data. Creates device specific models that capture the exact behavior of devices of the same type. Adapts to evolving systems. Can reduce computational complexity (faster simulations).

Thomas, Justin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Servicing and Assembly Tasks for Space Robotic Manipulators

This presentation will discuss a subset of the sources of uncertainty that impact autonomous in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing missions. These include robotic manipulator modeling uncertainties in both kinematics and dynamics, perception error associated machine learning models for pose estimation, and sensor noise. Mitigation strategies will be discussed including the incorporation of capture envelopes in the design of robotic tools and selection of robot goal poses to minimize end-effector sensitivity in manipulators with redundant degrees of freedom.

robotics↗

NASA NTRS1994

Accuracy assessment of the large-scale dynamic ocean topography from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

The quality of TOPEX/POSEIDON determinations of the global scale dynamic ocean topography have been assessed by determining mean topography solutions for successive 10-day repeat cycles and by examining the temporal changes in the sea surface topography to identify known features. The assessment is based on the analysis of TOPEX altimeter data cycles 1 through 36. Important errors in the tide model used to correct the altimeter data have been identified. The errors were reduced significantly by use of a new tide model derived with the TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. Maps of the global 1-year mean topography, produced using four of the most accurate of the marine geoid, show that the largest error in the dynamic ocean topography show expected features, such as the known annual hemispherical sea surface rise and fall and the seasonal variability due to monsoon influence in the Indian Ocean. Changes in the sequence of 10-day topography maps show the development and propagation of an equatorial Kelvin wave in the Pacific beginning in December 1992 with a propagation velocity of approximately 3 m/s. The observations are consistent with observed changes in the equatorial trade winds, and with tide gauge and other in situ observations of the strengthening of the El Nino. Comparison of TOPEX-determine sea surface height at points near oceanic tide gauges shows agreement at the 4 cm root-mean-square (RMS) level over the tropical Pacific. The results show that the TOPEX altimeter data set can be used to map the ocean surface with a temporal resolution of 10 days and an accuracy which is insonsistent with traditional in situ methods for the determination of sea level variations.

Tapley, B. D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A reduced order sulfuric acid decomposition model for a nuclear-powered hybrid sulfur cycle

A reduced order model of sulfuric acid decomposition within a bayonet chemical reactor was developed to support the U. S. Department of Energy Integrated Energy System program, and address the lack of knowledge in scaling and integration for joint chemical and nuclear processes. Sulfuric acid decomposition within a bayonet reactor was modeled to provide chemical and thermodynamic data relevant to advanced nuclear reactor-driven integrated energy systems based on desired operational scale and operational conditions. The temperature range required for high-temperature advanced nuclear reactor integrated energy systems, 750-850 °C, was shown to produce reasonable agreement (within a few percent relative error) with past models and experimental data, and yielded good efficiency results for bayonet reactor operations. The results of the reduced order model agreed with previous work from Savannah River National Labs within a maximum of 3.4% error on the decomposition of sulfur trioxide, and on previous Hybrid Sulfur flowsheets from Gorensek and Summers that showed operational temperature, pressure, and composition ranges for efficiency which made the Hybrid Sulfur cycle competitive with water electrolysis. Here, the agreement with previous high-fidelity models provided a framework for future Integrated Energy System grid evaluations with an advanced nuclear reactor and large-scale hydrogen production using a mathematical model to represent chemical operations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases

Changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models, and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line–by–line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear–sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a re–analysis of present–day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from pre–industrial times to the present–day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m –2 . Six contributing line–by–line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m –2 while even recently–developed parameterizations have typical errors four or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line–by–line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line–by–line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations. Here, the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature change by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest non–linearity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A tutorial review of machine learning-based model predictive control methods

Abstract This tutorial review provides a comprehensive overview of machine learning (ML)-based model predictive control (MPC) methods, covering both theoretical and practical aspects. It provides a theoretical analysis of closed-loop stability based on the generalization error of ML models and addresses practical challenges such as data scarcity, data quality, the curse of dimensionality, model uncertainty, computational efficiency, and safety from both modeling and control perspectives. The application of these methods is demonstrated using a nonlinear chemical process example, with open-source code available on GitHub. The paper concludes with a discussion on future research directions in ML-based MPC.

Wu, Zhe [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular E↗

NASA NTRS2019

Using Deep Learning to Automate Inference of Meteoroid Pre-Entry Properties

Properly assessing the asteroid threat depends on the knowledge of asteroid pre-entry parameters, such as size, velocity, mass, density, and strength. Although a vast number of possible bodies to study exist, such characterization of asteroid populations is currently limited by substantial costs associated with space rendezvous missions and rare meteorite findings. As asteroids fragment, ablate, and decelerate in the atmosphere, they emit light detectable by ground-based and space-borne instruments. Earth’s atmosphere, thus, becomes an accessible laboratory that enables impactor risk assessments by facilitating inference of the pre-entry parameters. These asteroid pre-entry conditions are typically deduced by modeling the entry and breakup physics that best reproduce the observed light or energy deposition curve. However, this process requires extensive manual trial-and-error of uncertain modeling parameters. Automating meteor modeling and inference would improve property distributions used in risk assessments and enable population characterization as more light curves become more readily available through the presence of space assets and ground-based camera networks. We previously developed a genetic algorithm to automate meteor modeling by using the fragment-cloud model (FCM) to search for the values of the FCM input parameters (e.g., diameter) that generate energy deposition profiles that match the observed one. Now, we apply deep learning to infer asteroid diameter, velocity, and density from observed energy deposition curves. We trained and tested our neural network models with synthetic energy deposition curves modeled using the FCM rubble pile implementation. We present an application of a 1D convolutional neural network and compare its performance to other attempted regressors and machine learning techniques, such as a fully connected neural network and Random Forest regression, to demonstrate its capabilities. We validate our model weights and approach using the Chelyabinsk, Tagish Lake, Benešov, Košice, and Lost City meteors.

Tarano, Ana Maria↗

NASA NTRS2018

Thermal Modeling and Correlation of the Space Environments Complex Vacuum Chamber and Cryoshroud

A thermal model of the Space Environments Complex (SEC) vacuum chamber and cryoshroud has been developed in support of upcoming thermal vacuum/thermal balance testing for Orion EM-1. The model was developed in Thermal Desktop and includes the vacuum chamber itself, a fluid model of the gaseous nitrogen flowing through the cryoshroud and the chamber piping, the Heat Flux System (HFS) within the cryoshroud, and the mechanical ground support equipment (MGSE) that interfaces with the vehicle. It has been correlated with steady state data from three tests. Two tests ran the cryoshroud in hot mode at 170 °F, and one test ran the cryoshroud in cold mode at -263 °F. Correlation was done using an optimization algorithm to find values of unknown contact conductances that minimized the RMS error between the model predictions and the test data. Overall, model quality was very good with a total RMS error of 2.6 °F.

Stalcup, Erik J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Human Errors and Error Mechanisms From Accident Reports Using Large Language Models

Emerging operational concepts for aviation hinge on novel paradigms for human machine interaction. Critical to their safe operation is early consideration of human error into the design process. Existing methods for consideration of human error require significant expert input, which is challenging both in early design and in novel systems for which there is little existing safety expertise. In this research, we propose a methodology for identifying human error, error producing factors, and mechanisms in early design from historical incident reports. Additionally, we hypothesize that cross-domain sharing of lessons learned can aid with early design human considerations in circumstances where data is not relevant or incomplete. This is addressed by identifying causes of human error in aviation and railway domains through applying state-of-the art natural language processing techniques to historical incident reports. Using this method, it is possible to extract extensive reports on human error from past incidents. Using the proposed approach, we identify nine human errors from railway reports and fourteen from aviation reports, with three errors common to both domains. There is at least one error producing conditions for each human error while a majority of the errors have more than one error mechanism. We also found that a majority of the human errors, error producing factors, and error mechanisms (even if they are not common between the domains) can be used to inform safe operations across domains as long as the errors are not domain specific and are interpreted and contextualized using engineering judgement.

Human Errors↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Turbulent Liquid Spray Atomization Model for Diesel Engine Simulations (Final Technical Report)

This project addresses the systematic lack of predictive capabilities by spray models within engine CFD codes. We develop a new modeling approach to predict the breakup of diesel sprays based on recent literature showing that liquid turbulence plays a fundamental role in spray atomization. A new body of quantitative validation data is also developed as a critical element of the project, leveraging the joint capabilities of Georgia Tech’s high-pressure continuous-flow spray chamber and Argonne National Lab’s near-nozzle x-ray diagnostics at the Advanced Photon Source. This project contributes spatially-resolved measurements of drop size distribution within well-characterized diesel injectors, Spray A and D, from the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) to the engine combustion community for the first time. Utilizing this new body of measurements, we validate and demonstrate a new spray model for diesel sprays, termed the KH-Faeth model, that predicts global and local spray characteristic more accurately than the widely adopted and employed KH model. Predicted drop size distributions are seen to predict measured drops sizes both quantitatively and predictively, with accurate response in droplet size distributions over a wide range of ambient density, injection pressure, and injector nozzle size (Spray A and D) without model tuning. The KH-Faeth model can reduce error in the predicted centerline droplet size profile by up to 80% for ECN Spray D simulations when compared to use of the widely employed KH model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Longwave cloud radiative forcing at the surface from ISCCP-C1 data

A method for deriving one component of the total cloud forcing picture, namely, the LW cloud forcing at the surface, is presented. The method is based on a validated radiative transfer technique and utilizes meteorological data available from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. The radiative transfer model used was validated earlier and the TOVS-derived temperature and water vapor data used were generally reasonable. On a monthly-average basis, random error was estimated to be in the 5-10 W/sq m range, but biases as large as 10-20 W/sq m can occur in some regions. The lack of information on cloud-base heights were found to be the largest source of errors in the models and the meteorological data.

Gupta, Shashi K.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Reduced-Order Modeling of a Heaving Airfoil

A reduced-order model of a flapping airfoil is developed using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). The proper basis functions, developed from snapshots of full Navier-Stokes simulations, are used for a Galerkin projection of the governing equations. The resulting coupled, nonlinear ordinary di.erential equations have a low dimension because the first few basis members capture most of the energy of the flow. The reduced-order model is used to simulate heaving motions that are both similar to and different from the motion(s) used to generate the basis functions, and the errors in the model are quantified. Several methods are used to generate mode sets that can be used over a range of heaving parameters, including snapshots from one, two, and multiple Navier-Stokes simulations. As snapshots from additional simulations are added to the decomposition, the mode sets become richer and can simulate a wider range of parameter space, at some computational cost. Whereas the POD method is fully applicable in three dimensions, the simulation technique based on a body-fixed and body-fitted grid suffers large overhead when extended to three dimensions. To reduce the overhead, an embedding technique is discussed which embeds the solid wing into a fixed Cartesian grid. The wing, which can now have multiple pieces and also be flexible, is represented by a distribution of body forces. This distribution is determined to give exactly the flow around a flapping wing.

Haj-Hariri, H.↗