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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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This paper represents an on-going effort at NASA Ames Research Center to develop a physics-based nonequilibrium model for hypersonic entry into the Martian atmosphere.
We develop a probabilistic graphical model based methodology to efficiently perform uncertainty quantification in the presence of both stochastic input and multiple scales. Both the stochastic input and model responses are treated as random variables in this framework. Their relationships are modeled by graphical models which give explicit factorization of a high-dimensional joint probability distribution. The hyperparameters in the probabilistic model are learned using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method, which is superior to standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for multi-modal distributions. Finally, we make predictions from the probabilistic graphical model using the belief propagation algorithm. Numerical examples are presented to show the accuracy and efficiency of the predictive capability of the developed graphical model.
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles.
This report describes the development of a crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) model for the multiaxial creep rupture of Grade 91 steel. The report demonstrates that core blocks in heat pipe reactor designs will see significantly different stress states than those typically found in conventional advanced reactor components where structures can often be represented as thin-walled pressure vessels. Current design practice uses effective stress measures calibrated to biaxial creep test data to account for the effect of stress multiaxiality on rupture life. Because these models rely on biaxial data they may not be accurate for the truly 3D, triaxial states found in heat pipe microreactor core blocks. A physically-based model, like the CPFEM model developed here, may be able to more accurately represent creep rupture under triaxial stresses when compared to conventional, empirical methods. This report describes the development, implementation, and validation of such a model and then applies the model to predict the effect of stress triaxiality on rupture in Grade 91 steel. The model results are used to assess the effective stress measures currently used in high temperature design codes and makes specific recommendations on improving these effective stresses to better account for the effect of 3D stress states on rupture in Grade 91. The validation and then implementation of these recommendations in design codes and standards could lead to safer, more effective heat pipe microreactor core block designs.
As automotive fuel economy requirements increase, the push for reducing overall vehicle weight will likely include the consideration of materials that have not previously been part of mainstream vehicle design and manufacturing, including carbon fiber composites. Vehicle manufacturers currently rely on computer-aided engineering (CAE) methods as part of the design and development process, so going forward, the ability to accurately and predictably model carbon fiber composites will be necessary. If composites are to be used for structural components, this need applies to both, crash and quasi-static modeling. This final report covers the results of a five-year, $6.89M, 50% cost-shared research project between Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Advanced Materials Partnership (USAMP) under Cooperative Agreement DE-EE-0005661 known as “Validation of Material Models for Automotive Carbon Fiber Composite Structures Via Physical and Crash Testing (VMM).” The objective of the VMM Composites Project was to validate and assess the ability of physics-based material models to predict crash performance of automotive primary load-carrying carbon fiber composite structures. Simulation material models that were evaluated included micro-mechanics based meso-scale models developed by the University of Michigan (UM) and micro-plane models by Northwestern University (NWU) under previous collaborations with the DOE and Automotive Composites Consortium/USAMP, as well as five commercial crash codes: LS-DYNA, RADIOSS, VPS/PAM-CRASH, Abaqus, and GENOA-MCQ. CAE predictions obtained from seven organizations were compared with experimental results from quasi-static testing and dynamic crash testing of a thermoset carbon fiber composite front-bumper and crush-can (FBCC) system gathered under multiple loading conditions. This FBCC design was developed to demonstrate progressive crush, virtual simulation, tooling, fabrication, assembly, non-destructive evaluation and crash testing advances in order to assess the correlation of the predicted results to the physical tests. The FBCC was developed to meet a goal of 30-35% mass reduction while aiming for equivalent energy absorption as a steel component for which baseline experimental results were obtained from testing in the same crash modes. The project also evaluated crash performance of thermoplastic composite structures fabricated from commercial prepreg materials and low cost carbon fiber sourced from Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The VMM Project determined that no set of predictions from a CAE supplier were found to be universally accurate among all the six crash modes evaluated. In general, crash modes that were most dependent on the properties of the prepreg were more accurate than those that were dependent on the behavior of the joints. The project found that current CAE modeling methods or best practices for carbon fiber composites have not achieved standardization, and accuracy of CAE is highly reliant on the experience of its users. Coupon tests alone are not sufficient to develop an accurate material model, but it is necessary to bridge the gap between the coupon data and performance of the actual structure with a series of subcomponent level tests. Much of the unreliability of the predictions can be attributed to shortcomings in our ability to mathematically link the effects of manufacturing and material variability into the material models. This is a subject of ongoing research in the industry. The final report is organized by key technical tasks to describe how the validation project developed, modeled and compared crash data obtained on the composite FBCC to the multiple sets of CAE predictions. Highlights of the report include a discussion of the quantitative comparison between predictions and experimental data, as well as an in-depth discussion of remaining technological gaps that exist in the industry, which are intended to spur innovations and improvements in CAE technology.
The environmental impacts of global warming driven by methane (CH 4 ) emissions have catalyzed significant research initiatives in developing novel technologies that enable proactive and rapid detection of CH 4 . Several data-driven machine learning (ML) models were tested to determine how well they identified fugitive CH 4 and its related intensity in the affected areas. Various meteorological characteristics, including wind speed, temperature, pressure, relative humidity, water vapor, and heat flux, were included in the simulation. We used the ensemble learning method to determine the best-performing weighted ensemble ML models built upon several weaker lower-layer ML models to (i) detect the presence of CH 4 as a classification problem and (ii) predict the intensity of CH 4 as a regression problem. The classification model performance for CH 4 detection was evaluated using accuracy, F1 score, Matthew’s Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC), with the top-performing model being 97.2%, 0.972, 0.945 and 0.995, respectively. The R 2 score was used to evaluate the regression model performance for CH 4 intensity prediction, with the R 2 score of the best-performing model being 0.858. The ML models developed in this study for fugitive CH 4 detection and intensity prediction can be used with fixed environmental sensors deployed on the ground or with sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for mobile detection.
Agent-based technologies answer to several challenges posed by additional information processing requirements in today's computing environments. In particular, (1) users desire interaction with computing devices in a mode which is similar to that used between people, (2) the efficiency and successful completion of information processing tasks often require a high-level of expertise in complex and multiple domains, (3) information processing tasks often require handling of large volumes of data and, therefore, continuous and endless processing activities. The concept of an agent is an attempt to address these new challenges by introducing information processing environments in which (1) users can communicate with a system in a natural way, (2) an agent is a specialist and a self-learner and, therefore, it qualifies to be trusted to perform tasks independent of the human user, and (3) an agent is an entity that is continuously active performing tasks that are either delegated to it or self-imposed. The work described in this paper focuses on the development of an interface agent for users of a complex information processing environment (IPE). This activity is part of an on-going effort to build a model for developing agent-based information systems. Such systems will be highly applicable to environments which require a high degree of automation, such as, flight control operations and/or processing of large volumes of data in complex domains, such as the EOSDIS environment and other multidisciplinary, scientific data systems. The concept of an agent as an information processing entity is fully described with emphasis on characteristics of special interest to the User-System Interface Agent (USIA). Issues such as agent 'existence' and 'qualification' are discussed in this paper. Based on a definition of an agent and its main characteristics, we propose an architecture for the development of interface agents for users of an IPE that is agent-oriented and whose resources are likely to be distributed and heterogeneous in nature. The architecture of USIA is outlined in two main components: (1) the user interface which is concerned with issues as user dialog and interaction, user modeling, and adaptation to user profile, and (2) the system interface part which deals with identification of IPE capabilities, task understanding and feasibility assessment, and task delegation and coordination of assistant agents.
Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.
Shale has been usually recognized as a transverse isotropic (TI) medium in conventional geomechanical log interpretation due to its laminated nature. However, when natural fractures exist in the shale rock, additional elastic anisotropy is introduced, converting laminated Shale to an orthorhombic (OB) medium. Previous studies illustrate that neglecting the natural fracture induced anisotropy in shale geomechanical log interpretation could lead to inaccurate evaluations of elastic moduli and in-situ stresses. In this paper, a new method is developed to account for the natural fracture induced anisotropy in geomechanical log interpretation based upon the TI acoustic model developed by the author and a characterization technique of elastic wave anisotropy (Sayers, 1991). The new OB model incorporates the four acoustic log data inputs and five modeling constraints in a nonlinear optimization algorithm to solve for the nine independent stiffness coefficients of an OB rock, and further to solve for the geomechanical properties and in-situ stress profiles in an OB formation. The new method was validated with a Marcellus Gas Shale field case. Both the new OB model and the conventional TI model were applied to interpret the minimum horizontal stress profile for the same formation. By comparing the results, the OB model is more robust than the TI from two aspects. First, the average stress magnitude predicted by the OB model is closer to the one measured by the Diagnostic Fracture Injection Test (DFIT). Second, the OB model predicts a more obvious stress barrier between the lower Marcellus and upper Onondaga Limestone than the TI model does. Finally, the predicted stress barrier is consistent with the observation of the microseismic events of a horizontal well drilled and completed nearby, which reveals that no hydraulic fracture propagates downward through the bottom boundary of Marcellus Shale into the underlying Onondaga Limestone.
Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an office building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.
Recent studies on off-stoichiometric thermosets reveal unique viscoelastic behavior derived from increased free volume and physical interactions between chain ends. To understand structural characteristics arising from cure and its effect on properties, we developed a Monte Carlo model based on step-growth polymerization. Our model accurately predicted structure–property trends for a two-component system of EPON 828 (EPON) and ethylenediamine. A second epoxy monomer, D.E.R. 732 (DER), was investigated to modulate T g . Binary mixtures of EPON and DER in off-stoichiometric, amine-rich formulations resulted in nonlinear evolution of thermomechanical properties with respect to initial formulation stoichiometry. Modifying our model with kinetic parameters allowing for differential epoxide/amine reaction kinetics only partially accounted for trends in T g , suggesting that spatiotemporal contributions-not captured by our model-were significant determinants of material properties compared to polymer architecture for three-component systems. Here these findings underpin the importance of spatial awareness in modeling to inform the development of dynamic thermosets.
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) are all hyper-spectral satellite sensors with thousands of spectral channels. Top of atmospheric radiance spectra measured by these sensors contain high information content on atmospheric, cloud, and surface properties. Exploring high information content contained in these high spectral resolution spectra is a challenging task due to computation e ort involved in modeling thousands of spectral channels. Usually, only very small fractions (4{10 percent) of the available channels are included in physical retrieval systems or numerical weather forecast (NWP) satellite data assimilations. We will describe a method of simultaneously retrieving atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface properties using all available spectral channels without sacrificing computational speed. The essence of the method is to convert channel radiance spectra into super-channels by an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) transformation. Because the EOFs are orthogonal to each other, about 100 super-channels are adequate to capture the information content of the radiance spectra. A Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) developed at NASA Langley Research Center is used to calculate both the super-channel magnitudes and derivatives with respect to atmospheric profiles and other properties. There is no need to perform EOF transformations to convert super channels back to spectral space at each iteration step for a one-dimensional variational retrieval or a NWP data assimilation system. The PCRTM forward model is also capable of calculating radiative contributions due to multiple-layer clouds. The multiple scattering effects of the clouds are efficiently parameterized. A physical retrieval algorithm then performs an inversion of atmospheric, cloud, and surface properties in super channel domain directly therefore both reducing the computational need and preserving the information content of the IASI measurements. The inversion algorithm is based on a non-linear Levenberg-Marquardt method with climatology covariance matrices and a priori information as constraints. One advantage of this approach is that it uses all information content from the hyper-spectral data so that the retrieval is less sensitive to instrument noise and eliminates the need for selecting a sub-set of the channels.
The objective of this paper is to describe an accurate and efficient reduced order modeling method for aeroelastic (AE) analysis and for determining the flutter boundary. Without losing accuracy, we develop a reduced order model based on the Volterra series to achieve significant savings in computational cost. The aerodynamic force is provided by a high-fidelity solution from the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations; the structural mode shapes are determined from the finite element analysis. The fluid-structure coupling is then modeled by the state-space formulation with the structural displacement as input and the aerodynamic force as output, which in turn acts as an external force to the aeroelastic displacement equation for providing the structural deformation. NASA's rotor 67 blade is used to study its aeroelastic characteristics under the designated operating condition. First, the CFD results are validated against measured data available for the steady state condition. Then, the accuracy of the developed reduced order model is compared with the full-order solutions. Finally the aeroelastic solutions of the blade are computed and a flutter boundary is identified, suggesting that the rotor, with the material property chosen for the study, is structurally stable at the operating condition, free of encountering flutter.
The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) consists of 5 U.S DOE national laboratories collaborating to develop a framework for predicting the risks associated with carbon sequestration. The approach taken by NRAP is to divide the system into components, including injection target reservoirs, wellbores, natural pathways including faults and fractures, groundwater and the atmosphere. Next, develop a detailed, physics and chemistry-based model of each component. Using the results of the detailed models, develop efficient, simplified models, termed reduced order models (ROM) for each component. Finally, integrate the component ROMs into a system model that calculates risk profiles for the site. This report details the development of the Groundwater Geochemistry ROM for the Edwards Aquifer at PNNL. The Groundwater Geochemistry ROM for the Edwards Aquifer uses a Wellbore Leakage ROM developed at LANL as input. The detailed model, using the STOMP simulator, covers a 5 x 8-km area of the Edwards Aquifer near San Antonio, Texas. The model includes heterogeneous hydraulic properties, and equilibrium, kinetic and sorption reactions between groundwater, leaked CO 2 gas, brine, and the aquifer carbonate and clay minerals. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate 1024 samples of input parameters. For each of these input samples, the STOMP simulator was used to predict the flux of CO 2 to the atmosphere, and the volume, length and width of the aquifer where pH was less than the MCL standard, and TDS, arsenic, cadmium and lead exceeded MCL standards. In order to decouple the Wellbore Leakage ROM from the Groundwater Geochemistry ROM, the response surface was transformed to replace Wellbore Leakage ROM input parameters with instantaneous and cumulative CO 2 and brine leakage rates. The most sensitive parameters proved to be the CO 2 and brine leakage rates from the well, with equilibrium coefficients for calcite and dolomite, as well as the number of illite and kaolinite sorption sites proving to be of secondary importance. The Groundwater Geochemistry ROM was developed using nonlinear regression to fit the response surface with a quadratic polynomial. The goodness of fit was excellent for the CO 2 flux to the atmosphere, and very good for predicting the volumes of groundwater exceeding the pH, TDS, As, Cd and Pb threshold values.
Fast and accurate radiative transfer models are needed to efficiently process satellite hyperspectral remote sensors. We have developed a Principal Component-based radiative transfer model (PCRTM) which can simulate TOA radiance or reflectance spectra in the cloudy atmosphere for far IR, IR, NIR, VIS, and UV spectral regions quickly and accurately. Multi-scattering of multiple layers of clouds/aerosols is included in the model. Polarization components can also be calculated. The computation speed is 3 to 4 orders of magnitude faster than MODTRAN5, LBLRTM, and VLIDORT. The PCRTM calculated radiance spectra agree with reference RTM calculated radiance spectra very well (0.03 K in IR and 0.05% in solar). Comparisons of the PCRTM model calculations with observed AIRS, CrIS, IASI, NAST-I, and SCIAMACHY data will be presented. The solar-PCRTM has been developed for CLARREO PathFinder (CPF) and has been extensively used for CPF science algorithms. The PCRTM can also be used for many current and future NASA future missions such as EMIT, SBG, TEMPO, and PACE.
Dissimilar metal welds (DMWs) made between ferritic steels and austenitic alloys are used extensively in high-temperature power plant components. These DMWs experience premature creep failure in the ferritic steel’s heat affected zone (HAZ), close to the weld interface. Steep variations in microstructure and chemical composition across the dissimilar weld interface have been the contributing factors for the failure. Graded transition joints (GTJs), developed by functionally grading the chemical composition in layers, have been proposed as potential candidates to replace DMWs. In this research, GTJ coupons were fabricated between 2.25Cr-1Mo steel and Alloy 800H base material using two filler materials: (i) Inconel 82 and (ii) P87. These samples were aged at 600°C for 2000h to accelerate high-temperature microstructural evolution seen in service conditions, before subjecting them to short-term (~1 month) creep tests. Surface strains were measured using digital image correlation (DIC) technique to extract creep strain rates at different locations within GTJs. Both the GTJs exhibited heterogeneous creep strain distribution. Creep strain accumulated in the FGHAZ of 2.25Cr-1Mo steel, similar to type IV failure associated with Cr-Mo steel weldments. Microstructure based creep model framework was developed to describe the discrete creep strain rates observed in various 2.25Cr-1Mo steel regions of GTJs.
Land surface topography is one of the most important terrain properties which impact hydrological, geomorphological, and ecological processes active on a landscape. In our previous efforts to develop a soil depth model based upon topographic and land cover variables, we extracted a set of hydrological proximity measures (HPMs) from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) as potential explanatory variables for soil depth. These HPMs may also have other, more general modeling applicability in hydrology, geomorphology and ecology, and so are described here from a general perspective. The HPMs we derived are variations of the distance up to ridge points (cells with no incoming flow) and variations of the distance down to stream points (cells with a contributing area greater than a threshold), following the flow path. These HPMs were computed using the D-infinity flow model that apportions flow between adjacent neighbors based on the direction of steepest downward slope on the eight triangular facets constructed in a 3 x 3 grid cell window using the center cell and each pair of adjacent neighboring grid cells in turn. The D-infinity model typically results in multiple flow paths between 2 points on the topography, with the result that distances may be computed as the minimum, maximum or average of the individual flow paths. In addition, each of the HPMs, are calculated vertically, horizontally, and along the land surface. Previously, these HPMs were calculated using recursive serial algorithms which suffered from stack overflow problems when used to process large datasets, limiting the size of DEMs that could be analyzed using that method to approximately 7000 x 7000 cells. To overcome this limitation, we developed a message passing interface (MPI) parallel approach for calculating these HPMs. The parallel algorithms of the HPMs spatially partition the input grid into stripes which are each assigned to separate processes for computation. Each of those processes then uses a queue data structure to order the processing of cells so that each cell is visited only once and the cross-process communications that are a standard part of MPI are handled in an efficient manner. This parallel approach allows analysis of much larger DEMs as compared to the serial recursive algorithms. In this paper, we present the definitions of the HPMs, the serial and parallel algorithms used in their extraction and their potential applications in hydrology, geomorphology and ecology.
This project made advancements in developing lower cost steel alloys with novel microstructural design for use in hydrogen refueling infrastructure such as storage, compressors, and dispensing components, and utilizing accelerated test methods to efficiently evaluate variations in alloy and microstructure design. The project specifically sought to design alloys with lower nickel contents to reduce alloy cost, which was accomplished through substituting manganese for nickel along with other alloy additions to control deformation characteristics known to be important for hydrogen embrittlement resistance. Through Mn substitutions for nickel, austenitic and duplex austenite-ferrite steels were successfully developed with lower cost than currently available commercial stainless steel products that are employed for hydrogen refueling infrastructure. The steels were processed to achieve comparable strength and toughness in hydrogen environments as the commercially available steels containing high Ni contents. To evaluate mechanical performance in hydrogen, a testing methodology was employed to compare ubiquitous laboratory testing using electrochemical hydrogen charging in a liquid electrolyte to less accessible high pressure gaseous testing. While the application of these steels is in high pressure gaseous environments, the electrochemical hydrogen charging tests produced comparable results. Additionally, the Los Alamos Neutron Scatting Center enabled characterization of deformation mechanisms of the steel alloys in the presence of hydrogen, which has been associated with steel alloy characteristics associated with hydrogen embrittlement. Finally, a fracture mechanics based test bed model was developed to predict the influence of hydrogen gas pressure and fatigue conditions on fatigue lifetimes of pressure vessel steels. Together, these developments can be employed to enable lower cost hydrogen fueling infrastructure and more reliable prediction of steel alloy components in hydrogen service conditions. In particular, the newly alloys have the potential to replace stainless steels, having demonstrated comparable performance at substantially reduced cost.