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At least 1,495 records · Page 83
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling temporal and hormonal regulation of plant transcriptional response to wounding

Plants respond to wounding stress by changing gene expression patterns and inducing the production of hormones including jasmonic acid. This wounding transcriptional response activates specialized metabolism pathways such as the glucosinolate pathways in Arabidopsis thaliana. While the regulatory factors and sequences controlling a subset of wound-response genes are known, it remains unclear how wound response is regulated globally. Here, we how these responses are regulated by incorporating putative cis-regulatory elements, known transcription factor binding sites, in vitro DNA affinity purification sequencing, and DNase I hypersensitive sites to predict genes with different wound-response patterns using machine learning. We observed that regulatory sites and regions of open chromatin differed between genes upregulated at early and late wounding time-points as well as between genes induced by jasmonic acid and those not induced. Expanding on what we currently know, we identified cis-elements that improved model predictions of expression clusters over known binding sites. Using a combination of genome editing, in vitro DNA-binding assays, and transient expression assays using native and mutated cis-regulatory elements, we experimentally validated four of the predicted elements, three of which were not previously known to function in wound-response regulation. Our study provides a global model predictive of wound response and identifies new regulatory sequences important for wounding without requiring prior knowledge of the transcriptional regulators.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Delamination-informed lifecycle decisions: A dielectric and machine learning framework for composite sorting and recycling

Composite materials are widely used in aerospace, marine, and automotive sectors due to their high strength-to-weight ratio and durability. However, their long-term reliability can be compromised by damage accumulation. Specifically, delamination initiation serves as a precursor to structural failure, which is often difficult to detect during damage inspection. Identifying and sorting delamination initiation in samples not only increases operational safety while providing critical information for end-of-life decisions, which influences both the service life extension value and the efficiency of fiber extraction during recycling. This research addresses two challenges: (1) developing a nondestructive, ex-situ framework to sort composite materials based on damage severity, particularly delamination, and (2) understanding how damage in composites influences resin removal during pyrolysis. Both experimental work and finite element analysis were performed to predict critical stress levels that are associated with delamination onset. Based on these results, three loading levels 50 %, 75 %, and 90 % of maximum stress, were selected for controlled experiments, generating composite samples with varying extents of damage for machine learning model training. Microscopic imaging of these samples confirmed the damage progression from matrix cracking to delamination, validating the computational predictions. We explored supervised machine learning using dielectric measurements to classify damage states. Preliminary results show an artificial neural network can identify early delamination which is a potential precursor to failure, with 94.44 % accuracy on our dataset. A parallel investigation into the effect of damage severity on pyrolysis recycling showed that heavily delaminated samples required significantly less energy for comparable matrix removal than undamaged samples.

dielectric variables↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Correlations between thermal history and keyhole porosity in laser powder bed fusion

Additive manufacturing has the potential to revolutionize the production of metallic components as it yields near net shape parts with complex geometries and minimizes waste. At the present day, additively manufactured components face qualification and certification challenges due to the difficulty in controlling defects. This has driven a significant research effort aimed at better understanding and improving processing controls – yielding a plethora of in-situ measurements aimed at correlating defects with material quality metrics of interest. In this work, we develop machine-learning methods to learn correlations between thermal history and subsurface porosity for a variety of print conditions in laser powder bed fusion. Un-normalized surface temperatures (in the form of black-body radiances) are obtained using high-speed infrared imaging and porosity formation is observed in the sample cross-section through synchrotron x-ray imaging. To demonstrate the predictive power of these features, we present four statistical machine-learning models that correlate temperature histories to subsurface porosity formation in laser fused Ti-6Al4V powder.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning of Bacterial Transcriptomes Reveals Responses Underlying Differential Antibiotic Susceptibility

In vitro antibiotic susceptibility testing often fails to accurately predict in vivo drug efficacies, in part due to differences in the molecular composition between standardized bacteriologic media and physiological environments within the body. Here, we investigate the interrelationship between antibiotic susceptibility and medium composition in Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 as contextualized through machine learning of transcriptomics data. Application of independent component analysis, a signal separation algorithm, shows that complex phenotypic changes induced by environmental conditions or antibiotic treatment are directly traced to the action of a few key transcriptional regulators, including RpoS, Fur, and Fnr. Integrating machine learning results with biochemical knowledge of transcription factor activation reveals medium-dependent shifts in respiration and iron availability that drive differential antibiotic susceptibility. By extension, the data generation and data analytics workflow used here can interrogate the regulatory state of a pathogen under any measured condition and can be applied to any strain or organism for which sufficient transcriptomics data are available.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AutonomieAI: An efficient and deployable vehicle energy consumption estimation toolkit

Here, this paper presents AutonomieAI, a novel toolkit designed for efficient energy estimation of vehicles across diverse trip scenarios, routes, and drive cycles, applicable to a broad range of vehicle powertrain technologies. It leverages state-of-the-art Machine Learning techniques to deliver real-time energy prediction of vehicles, enabling co-simulation with transportation level system tools and opening doors for large-scale optimization at city, network or national level. Benchmark results show that AutonomieAI achieves high accuracy, with an average percentage error below 2% for most powertrain types, and computational efficiency capable of processing over 10,000 trips per second. Applications of AutonomieAI have potential to offer the flexibility to assist in solving eco-routing problems, optimize for vehicle and powertrain selection, study charging decision behavior, and optimize for charging station placement. AutonomieAI is the result of large neural network based model architectures, trained on very large and unique high fidelity vehicle simulation data. It is lightweight, deployable, efficient and has accuracy comparable to specialized and complex physics based simulation softwares.

Autonomie↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Temporal Predictive Modelling of Sorghum Biomass Using UAV-Based Hyperspectral and LiDAR Data

High-throughput phenotyping using high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution remote sensing (RS) data has become a critical part of the plant breeding chain focused on reducing the time and cost of the selection process for the “best” genotypes with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In this paper, the potential of accurate and reliable sorghum biomass prediction using visible and near infrared (VNIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral data as well as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired by sensors mounted on UAV platforms is investigated. Predictive models are developed using classical regression-based machine learning methods for nine experiments conducted during the 2017 and 2018 growing seasons at the Agronomy Center for Research and Education (ACRE) at Purdue University, Indiana, USA. The impact of the regression method, data source, timing of RS and field-based biomass reference data acquisition, and the number of samples on the prediction results are investigated. R2 values for end-of-season biomass ranged from 0.64 to 0.89 for different experiments when features from all the data sources were included. Geometry-based features derived from the LiDAR point cloud to characterize plant structure and chemistry-based features extracted from hyperspectral data provided the most accurate predictions. Evaluation of the impact of the time of data acquisition during the growing season on the prediction results indicated that although the most accurate and reliable predictions of final biomass were achieved using remotely sensed data from mid-season to end-of-season, predictions in mid-season provided adequate results to differentiate between promising varieties for selection. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the accuracies of the predictive models showed that both the data source and regression method are important factors for a reliable prediction; however, the data source was more important with 69% significance, versus 28% significance for the regression method.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting U.S. federal fleet electric vehicle charging patterns using internal combustion engine vehicle fueling transaction statistics

Utilizing fueling transactions from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the authors estimated how frequently midday public charging would be required for U.S. federal fleet battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Fueling transaction summary statistics are more widely available than trip-level telematics data, making this methodology more accessible and transferable to other researchers and fleet managers considering BEV replacements. For example, readers can easily apply a linear model using only the count of back-to-back fueling events at gas stations over 57 straight-line miles apart to predict days exceeding range. This linear regression predicted binned days exceeding 250 miles at 80% accuracy on a hold-out test set from the same fleet as the training data and 66 % accuracy on a new fleet displaying different driving behaviors. The authors additionally provide linear equations for days exceeding 200 and 300 miles as alternative range estimates to account for differences in BEV range and temperature impacts. Beyond the single-feature linear models which readers can apply, the authors tuned and trained other machine learning models on a variety of fueling transaction statistics including consecutive transaction distances, transaction distance from garage, estimated miles traveled from fuel economy and fuel quantity, and transaction periodicity. Utilizing a subset of 1678 light-duty federal fleet vehicles which contained daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in addition to fueling statistics, the authors determined which fueling transaction statistics were most relevant in predicting driving days exceeding 250 miles (an approximation of BEV rated driving range). In support of the U.S. federal fleet transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), the authors used these statistics and machine learning models to predict the frequency of BEV midday charging. After training models on the subset with VMT, the authors predicted days exceeding rated range for 112,902 light-duty vehicles operating in similar circumstances in the federal fleet using a Support Vector Regressor (SVR). In conclusion, they then used the projections as part of the ZEV Planning and Charging (ZPAC) tool to identify optimal candidates for BEVs for the federal fleet. An anonymized version of ZPAC is included in the supplementary materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning-driven Molecular Design for Therapeutic Discovery

The ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has highlighted the need for new therapeutics to counter the threat of emerging viral pathogens. The main proteases are a promising target for developing antiviral inhibitors. In this work, we utilized a novel combination of artificial intelligence-driven iterative design of covalent inhibitor candidates, physics-based computational modeling of protein-inhibitor interactions, and “All in One” Native MS biophysical assay screening and characterization of therapeutic candidates. With our existing expertise in hit generation using a particular scaffold as a starting point, we first generated tens of thousands of compounds that preserve the key scaffold. In order to optimize the candidates, we calculated about 136 descriptors consisting of 2D and 3D features for molecules targeting the SARS-CoV-2 Main protease (Mpro). These compounds were initially filtered according to properties and further sorted by predicted binding affinity using our automated docking modeling and machine learning methods. We tested a handful of candidates and identified two as inhibitors of Mpro with micromolar affinities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate and confident prediction of electron beam longitudinal properties using spectral virtual diagnostics

Abstract Longitudinal phase space (LPS) provides a critical information about electron beam dynamics for various scientific applications. For example, it can give insight into the high-brightness X-ray radiation from a free electron laser. Existing diagnostics are invasive, and often times cannot operate at the required resolution. In this work we present a machine learning-based Virtual Diagnostic (VD) tool to accurately predict the LPS for every shot using spectral information collected non-destructively from the radiation of relativistic electron beam. We demonstrate the tool’s accuracy for three different case studies with experimental or simulated data. For each case, we introduce a method to increase the confidence in the VD tool. We anticipate that spectral VD would improve the setup and understanding of experimental configurations at DOE’s user facilities as well as data sorting and analysis. The spectral VD can provide confident knowledge of the longitudinal bunch properties at the next generation of high-repetition rate linear accelerators while reducing the load on data storage, readout and streaming requirements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced characterization-informed machine learning framework and quantitative insight to irradiated annular U-10Zr metallic fuels

Abstract U-10Zr Metal fuel is a promising nuclear fuel candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast spectrum reactors. Since the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II in the late 1960s, researchers accumulated a considerable amount of experience and knowledge on fuel performance at the engineering scale. However, a mechanistic understanding of fuel microstructure evolution and property degradation during in-reactor irradiation is still missing due to a lack of appropriate tools for rapid fuel microstructure assessment and property prediction based on post irradiation examination. This paper proposed a machine learning enabled workflow, coupled with domain knowledge and large dataset collected from advanced post-irradiation examination microscopies, to provide rapid and quantified assessments of the microstructure in two reactor irradiated prototypical annular metal fuels. Specifically, this paper revealed the distribution of Zr-bearing secondary phases and constitutional redistribution across different radial locations. Additionally, the ratios of seven different microstructures at various locations along the temperature gradient were quantified. Moreover, the distributions of fission gas pores on two types of U-10Zr annular fuels were quantitatively compared.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning plasma dynamics and robust rampdown trajectories with predict-first experiments at TCV

The rampdown phase of a tokamak pulse is difficult to simulate and often exacerbates multiple plasma instabilities. To reduce the risk of disrupting operations, we leverage advances in Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) to combine physics with data-driven models, developing a neural state-space model (NSSM) that predicts plasma dynamics during Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV) rampdowns. The NSSM efficiently learns dynamics from a modest dataset of 311 pulses with only five pulses in a reactor-relevant high-performance regime. The NSSM is parallelized across uncertainties, and reinforcement learning (RL) is applied to design trajectories that avoid instability limits. High-performance experiments at TCV show statistically significant improvements in relevant metrics. A predict-first experiment, increasing plasma current by 20% from baseline, demonstrates the NSSM’s ability to make small extrapolations. The developed approach paves the way for designing tokamak controls with robustness to considerable uncertainty and demonstrates the relevance of SciML for fusion experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the quenching of star formation in observed and simulated central galaxies: evidence for the role of integrated AGN feedback

ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate how massive central galaxies cease their star formation by comparing theoretical predictions from cosmological simulations: EAGLE, Illustris, and IllustrisTNG with observations of the local Universe from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Our machine learning (ML) classification reveals supermassive black hole mass (MBH) as the most predictive parameter in determining whether a galaxy is star forming or quenched at redshift z = 0 in all three simulations. This predicted consequence of active galactic nucleus (AGN) quenching is reflected in the observations, where it is true for a range of indirect estimates of MBH via proxies as well as its dynamical measurements. Our partial correlation analysis shows that other galactic parameters lose their strong association with quiescence, once their correlations with MBH are accounted for. In simulations, we demonstrate that it is the integrated power output of the AGN, rather than its instantaneous activity, which causes galaxies to quench. Finally, we analyse the change in molecular gas content of galaxies from star-forming to passive populations. We find that both gas fractions (fgas) and star formation efficiencies (SFEs) decrease upon transition to quiescence in the observations but SFE is more predictive than fgas in the ML passive/star-forming classification. These trends in the SDSS are most closely recovered in IllustrisTNG and are in direct contrast with the predictions made by Illustris. We conclude that a viable AGN feedback prescription can be achieved by a combination of preventative feedback and turbulence injection which together quench star formation in central galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different datasets, i.e., 1) the unit generation dataset and 2) the system total inertia and headroom dataset, for the prediction of the frequency nadir. The training and testing datasets are generated through extensive generation scheduling simulations using Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MI-DAS) toolbox on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods perform well in predicting the nadir frequency of the system. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners yielding the best prediction accuracy in terms of four evaluation metrics.

data driven↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward accelerating rare-earth metal extraction using equivariant neural networks

The separation of rare-earth metals, vital for numerous advanced technologies, is hampered by their similar chemical properties, making ligand discovery a significant challenge. Traditional experimental and quantum chemistry approaches for identifying effective ligands are often resource-intensive. We introduce a machine learning protocol based on an equivariant neural network, Allegro, for the rapid and accurate prediction of binding energies in rare-earth complexes. Key to this work is our newly curated dataset of rare-earth metal complexes—made publicly available to foster further research—systematically generated using the Architector program. This dataset distinctively features functionalized derivatives of proven rare-earth-chelating scaffolds, hydroxypyridinone (HOPO), catecholamide (CAM), and their thio-analogues, selected for their established efficacy in binding these elements. Trained on this valuable resource, our Allegro models demonstrate excellent performance, particularly when trained to directly predict DFT-level binding energies, yielding highly accurate results that closely correlate with theoretical calculations on a diverse test set. Furthermore, this strategy exhibited strong out-of-sample generalization, accurately predicting binding energies for an isomeric HOPO-derivative ligand not seen during training. By substantially reducing computational demands, this machine learning framework, alongside the provided dataset, represent powerful tools to accelerate the high-throughput screening and rational design of novel ligands for efficient rare-earth metal separation.

Gupta, Ankur K. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗