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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning

Stream temperature (Ts) is an important water quality parameter that affects ecosystem health and human water use for beneficial purposes. Accurate Ts predictions at different spatial and temporal scales can inform water management decisions that account for the effects of changing climate and extreme events. In particular, widespread predictions of Ts in unmonitored stream reaches can enable decision makers to be responsive to changes caused by unforeseen disturbances. In this study, we demonstrate the use of classical machine learning (ML) models, support vector regression and gradient boosted trees (XGBoost), for monthly Ts predictions in 78 pristine and human-impacted catchments of the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Northwest hydrologic regions spanning different geologies, climate, and land use. The ML models were trained using long-term monitoring data from 1980–2020 for three scenarios: (1) temporal predictions at a single site, (2) temporal predictions for multiple sites within a region, and (3) spatiotemporal predictions in unmonitored basins (PUB). In the first two scenarios, the ML models predicted Ts with median root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 0.69–0.84 °C and 0.92–1.02 °C across different model types for the temporal predictions at single and multiple sites respectively. For the PUB scenario, we used a bootstrap aggregation approach using models trained with different subsets of data, for which an ensemble XGBoost implementation outperformed all other modeling configurations (median RMSE 0.62 °C).The ML models improved median monthly Ts estimates compared to baseline statistical multi-linear regression models by 15–48% depending on the site and scenario. Air temperature was found to be the primary driver of monthly Ts for all sites, with secondary influence of month of the year (seasonality) and solar radiation, while discharge was a significant predictor at only 10 sites. The predictive performance of the ML models was robust to configuration changes in model setup and inputs, but was influenced by the distance to the nearest dam with RMSE <1 °C at sites situated greater than 16 and 44 km from a dam for the temporal single site and regional scenarios, and over 1.4 km from a dam for the PUB scenario. Our results show that classical ML models with solely meteorological inputs can be used for spatial and temporal predictions of monthly Ts in pristine and managed basins with reasonable (<1 °C) accuracy for most locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Price Taker: Conceptual Design and Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Using Machine Learning Market Surrogates

Future electricity generation systems must be optimized to provide flexibility that counteracts the variability of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources and ensures the reliability and safety of critical infrastructure, including the electric grid. The current state-of-the-art is to co-optimize the design and operation of integrated energy systems (IES) treating historical or predicted time-series electricity prices as fixed parameters. Recent literature has shown the limitations of this price taker assumption, which neglects how IES optimization decisions influence market outcomes. As such, this paper proposes a new optimization formulation that uses machine learning surrogate models, trained from a library of annual market operation simulations, to embed IES market interactions into the co-optimization problem directly. Using a thermal generator example built in the open-source IDAES computational environment, we show that the price taker approach routinely over-predicts annual revenues by 8% or more compared to a validation simulation, where the proposed approach has a typical relative error of 1% or less.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance and power modeling and prediction using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods

Energy-efficient scientific applications require insight into how high performance computing system features impact the applications' power and performance. This insight can result from the development of performance and power models. Here, in this article, we use the modeling and prediction tool MuMMI (Multiple Metrics Modeling Infrastructure) and 10 machine learning methods to model and predict performance and power consumption and compare their prediction error rates. We use an algorithm-based fault-tolerant linear algebra code and a multilevel checkpointing fault-tolerant heat distribution code to conduct our modeling and prediction study on the Cray XC40 Theta and IBM BG/Q Mira at Argonne National Laboratory and the Intel Haswell cluster Shepard at Sandia National Laboratories. Our experimental results show that the prediction error rates in performance and power using MuMMI are less than 10% for most cases. By utilizing the models for runtime, node power, CPU power, and memory power, we identify the most significant performance counters for potential application optimizations, and we predict theoretical outcomes of the optimizations. Based on two collected datasets, we analyze and compare the prediction accuracy in performance and power consumption using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Applying corrective machine learning in the E3SM atmosphere model in C++ (EAMxx)

The Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) is the newest addition to the family of earth system models capable of explicitly resolving convective systems. SCREAM is a kilometer-scale configuration of the advanced E3SM Atmosphere Model (EAMxx), designed for heterogeneous computing architectures. While the enhanced accuracy of kilometer-scale modeling offers significant benefits, it comes with a substantial computational cost, limiting feasible simulation durations to only a few years to a few decades, even on the fastest supercomputers. Machine learning presents an opportunity for scientists to achieve the high accuracy of storm-resolving models at a significantly reduced cost. Building on the previous success of applying corrective machine learning (ML) to the FV3GFS earth system model, this study explores the effects of implementing corrective-ML in EAMxx-SCREAM. We also address the computational challenges of integrating our implementation of corrective-ML, which is written in Python, with the C++/Kokkos EAMxx driver, as well as potential reasons why this approach has not proved as effective for EAMxx-SCREAM as for FV3GFS.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Path towards Plasma Facing Components: A Review of State-of-the-art in W-Based Refractory High-Entropy Alloys

Developing advanced materials for plasma-facing components (PFCs) in fusion reactors is a crucial aspect for achieving sustained energy production. Tungsten (W) - based refractory high-entropy alloys (RHEAs) have emerged as promising candidates due to their superior radiation tolerance and high-temperature strength. This review paper will focus on recent advancements in W-based RHEA research, particularly emphasizing the key role of modelling using machine learning (ML) in the stage of discovery by predicting properties for each composition and expediting the identification of optimal RHEA compositions with desired properties. Additionally, the application of additive manufacturing (AM) techniques for fabricating W-based RHEAs is explored, highlighting their advantages for rapid prototyping and multi-compositional sample production in a high throughput manner. The review critically evaluates the current understanding of mechanical properties relevant to PFC applications, including high-temperature strength and ductility. Furthermore, the radiation tolerance of W-based RHEAs under irradiated conditions is discussed. Finally, the validity of current AM-manufactured W-based RHEAs as PFC materials is assessed, and key challenges and opportunities for future research are identified. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of W-based RHEAs for fusion applications and their potential to guide the development and validation of advanced refractory high entropy alloys.

Hatler, Caleb [University of Wisconsin-Madison]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active and Transfer Learning of High-Dimensional Neural Network Potentials for Transition Metals

Classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations represent a very popular and powerful tool for materials modeling and design. The predictive power of MD hinges on the ability of the interatomic potential to capture the underlying physics and chemistry. There have been decades of seminal work on developing interatomic potentials, albeit with a focus predominantly on capturing the properties of bulk materials. Such physics-based models, while extensively deployed for predicting the dynamics and properties of nanoscale systems over the past two decades, tend to perform poorly in predicting nanoscale potential energy surfaces (PESs) when compared to high-fidelity first-principles calculations. These limitations stem from the lack of flexibility in such models, which rely on a predefined functional form. Machine learning (ML) models and approaches have emerged as a viable alternative to capture the diverse size-dependent cluster geometries, nanoscale dynamics, and the complex nanoscale PESs, without sacrificing the bulk properties. Here, in this study, we introduce an ML workflow that combines transfer and active learning strategies to develop high-dimensional neural networks (NNs) for capturing the cluster and bulk properties for several different transition metals with applications in catalysis, microelectronics, and energy storage, to name a few. Our NN first learns the bulk PES from the high-quality physics-based models in literature and subsequently augments this learning via retraining with a higher-fidelity first-principles training data set to concurrently capture both the nanoscale and bulk PES. Our workflow departs from status-quo in its ability to learn from a sparsely sampled data set that nonetheless covers a diverse range of cluster configurations from near-equilibrium to highly nonequilibrium as well as learning strategies that iteratively improve the fingerprinting depending on model fidelity. All the developed models are rigorously tested against an extensive first-principles data set of energies and forces of cluster configurations as well as several properties of bulk configurations for 10 different transition metals. Our approach is material agnostic and provides a methodology to transfer and build upon the learnings from decades of seminal work in molecular simulations on to a new generation of ML-trained potentials to accelerate materials discovery and design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing multi-gene CRISPRa/i programs to accelerate DBTL cycles in ABF hosts engineered for chemical production

This project developed and implemented a modular CRISPR activation and interference (CRISPRa/i) platform to accelerate strain optimization and pathway development for industrially relevant microbial hosts. By integrating multiplexed transcriptional perturbation tools with data-driven Design–Build–Test–Learn (DBTL) workflows, the team achieved reductions in cycle time and enhanced production of industrial aromatics, particularly 4-aminocinnamic acid (4-ACA), in Pseudomonas putida. Key accomplishments included: ● Development of a robust, tunable CRISPRa/i system in P. putida that enabled efficient multi-target gene regulation via guide RNA (gRNA) programs ● Completion of two full DBTL cycles, guided by machine learning (ML) models trained on transcriptomic and performance data, reducing engineering time by over 30% ● Optimization of multi-gene regulatory programs to balance expression of host and pathway modules, improve 4-ACA titers, and resolve metabolic bottlenecks ● Demonstration of system portability through a limited proof-of-concept extension in Acinetobacter baylyi, underscoring the generalizability of the approach ● Evaluation of strain performance on lignocellulosic biomass-derived substrates, demonstrating the feasibility of converting renewable carbon into aromatic building blocks These results illustrate the feasibility of applying ML-guided CRISPRa/i perturbation strategies to accelerate strain development in complex microbial systems. The resulting tools and datasets contribute to DOE objectives by improving platform predictability, reducing development costs, and enabling broader access to sustainable, economically viable bioproduction technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine-Learning-Based Mapping and Modeling of Solar Energy with Ultra-High Spatiotemporal Granularity

Despite the rapid growth of solar energy, we still lack a dynamic, high-fidelity database that tracks the spatiotemporal variations of solar PVs and their associated infrastructures across different places at a spatially resolved scale. The absence of such data presents a barrier to various applications such as solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar incentive design, and climate risk assessment. In this project, we aim to bridge this gap by developing AI-based algorithms to extract granular information about solar PV installations and their associated infrastructures (i.e., distribution grids) from widely available unstructured data like remote sensing images and street views. As a result, we have built the Solar Energy Atlas, a fine-grained, large-scale geospatial overlay of distributed solar PVs and distribution grids. On top of it, we have advanced the understanding of solar adoption and distribution grid vulnerability to climate-induced extremes. Our major contributions can be summarized as follow: (1) By developing new AI algorithms, we have built the most comprehensive solar PV spatiotemporal database covering the entire US. This is the first time we obtained the exact GPS locations, size, subtype, and installation year information for rooftop solar PVs across the US. This database can be used for solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar energy policy analysis and design, and spatially-resolved climate risk assessment. (2) Leveraging this database, we have uncovered the socioeconomic driving factors that are correlated with earlier onset of solar adoption and higher saturated adoption levels. We have identified the heterogeneity in the effects of different types of financial incentives on solar adoption and provided implications for tailoring incentive design based on local income levels to promote equitable solar adoption. (3) We have developed a distribution grid GIS mapping algorithm which can obtain granular geospatial and topology information about distribution grids using multi-modal open data, reducing the dependency on hard-to-obtain smart meter data of conventional approaches. It shows effectiveness in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this algorithm, we have uncovered the non-uniform vulnerability of distribution grids to wildfires in California in the aspects of undergrounding protection and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) preparedness. This has provided important implications for improving the affordability and equity of grid adaptation approaches. (3) We have made our produced database publicly available and provided user-friendly interface to enable various stakeholders and the general public to interact with the data. We have also integrated the produced data into the Data Commons platform to enable the public to access the data and correlate it with other location-specific characteristics simply using natural language as queries. The impact of our project is three-fold: (1) New algorithms for mapping solar PVs and distribution grids across space and time, which are open source to facilitate researchers and industry; (2) New databases of solar PVs and distribution grids that have been made publicly available for engineering, social, and policy applications; (3) New understandings and actionable insights on the potential approaches to promoting solar adoption and reducing energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. In this report, we start by discussing the project background and motivation (section 5), followed by the overview of project objectives (section 6). Results and discussion for each task are presented in section 7. Significant accomplishments are summarized in section 8. This report will be concluded by discussing the paths forwards (section 9), products (section 10), and team roles (section 11).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advances in Machine and Deep Learning for Modeling and Real-time Detection of Multi-Messenger Sources

We live in momentous times. The science community is empowered with an arsenal of cosmic messengers to study the universe in unprecedented detail. Gravitational waves, electromagnetic waves, neutrinos, and cosmic rays cover a wide range of wavelengths and timescales. Combining and processing these datasets that vary in volume, speed, and dimensionality requires new modes of instrument coordination, funding, and international collaboration with a specialized human and technological infrastructure. In tandem with the advent of large-scale scientific facilities, the last decade has experienced an unprecedented transformation in computing and signal-processing algorithms. The combination of graphics processing units, deep learning, and the availability of open source, high-quality datasets has powered the rise of artificial intelligence. This digital revolution now powers a multibillion dollar industry, with far-reaching implications in technology and society. In this chapter, we describe pioneering efforts to adapt artificial intelligence algorithms to address computational grand challenges in multi-messenger astrophysics. We review the rapid evolution of these disruptive algorithms, from the first class of algorithms introduced in early 2017 to the sophisticated algorithms that now incorporate domain expertise in their architectural design and optimization schemes. We discuss the importance of scientific visualization and extreme-scale computing in reducing time-to-insight and obtaining new knowledge from the interplay between models and data.

Artificial Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent advances in constraint and machine learning-based metabolic modeling by leveraging stoichiometric balances, thermodynamic feasibility and kinetic law formalisms

Understanding the governing principles behind organisms’ metabolism and growth underpins their effective deployment as bioproduction chassis. A central objective of metabolic modeling is predicting how metabolism and growth are affected by both external environmental factors and internal genotypic perturbations. The fundamental concepts of reaction stoichiometry, thermodynamics, and mass action kinetics have emerged as the foundational principles of many modeling frameworks designed to describe how and why organisms allocate resources towards both growth and bioproduction. Furthermore, this review focuses on the latest algorithmic advancements that have integrated these foundational principles into increasingly sophisticated quantitative frameworks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regularized machine learning on molecular graph model explains systematic error in DFT enthalpies

Abstract A major goal of materials research is the discovery of novel and efficient heterogeneous catalysts for various chemical processes. In such studies, the candidate catalyst material is modeled using tens to thousands of chemical species and elementary reactions. Density Functional Theory (DFT) is widely used to calculate the thermochemistry of these species which might be surface species or gas-phase molecules. The use of an approximate exchange correlation functional in the DFT framework introduces an important source of error in such models. This is especially true in the calculation of gas phase molecules whose thermochemistry is calculated using the same planewave basis set as the rest of the surface mechanism. Unfortunately, the nature and magnitude of these errors is unknown for most practical molecules. Here, we investigate the error in the enthalpy of formation for 1676 gaseous species using two different DFT levels of theory and the ‘ground truth values’ obtained from the NIST database. We featurize molecules using graph theory. We use a regularized algorithm to discover a sparse model of the error and identify important molecular fragments that drive this error. The model is robust to rigorous statistical tests and is used to correct DFT thermochemistry, achieving more than an order of magnitude improvement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structure of chalcogen overlayers on Au(111): Density functional theory and lattice-gas modeling

Ordering of different chalcogens, S, Se, and Te, on Au(111) exhibit broad similarities but also some distinct features, which must reflect subtle differences in relative values of the long-range pair and many-body lateral interactions between adatoms. We develop lattice-gas (LG) models within a cluster expansion framework, which includes about 50 interaction parameters. These LG models are developed based on density functional theory (DFT) analysis of the energetics of key adlayer configurations in combination with the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of the LG models to identify statistically relevant adlayer motifs, i.e., model development is based entirely on theoretical considerations. The MC simulation guides additional DFT analysis and iterative model refinement. Given their complexity, development of optimal models is also aided by strategies from supervised machine learning. The model for S successfully captures ordering motifs over a broader range of coverage than achieved by previous models, and models for Se and Te capture the features of ordering, which are distinct from those for S. More specifically, the modeling for all three chalcogens successfully explains the linear adatom rows (also subtle differences between them) observed at low coverages of ~0.1 monolayer. The model for S also leads to a new possible explanation for the experimentally observed phase with a (5 × 5)-type low energy electron diffraction (LEED) pattern at 0.28 ML and to predictions for LEED patterns that would be observed with Se and Te at this coverage.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning of consistent thermodynamic models using automatic differentiation

In this study, we propose a data-driven method to describe consistent equations of state (EOS) for arbitrary systems. Complex EOS are traditionally obtained by fitting suitable analytical expressions to thermophysical data. A key aspect of EOS is that the relationships between state variables are given by derivatives of the system free energy. In this work, we model the free energy with an artificial neural network and utilize automatic differentiation to directly learn the derivatives of the free energy. We demonstrate this approach on two different systems, the analytic van der Waals EOS and published data for the Lennard-Jones fluid, and we show that it is advantageous over direct learning of thermodynamic properties (i.e., not as derivatives of the free energy but as independent properties), in terms of both accuracy and the exact preservation of the Maxwell relations. Furthermore, the method implicitly provides the free energy of a system without explicit integration.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗