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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

A Priority-Based View of Future Challenges in International Nuclear Safeguards.

The international nuclear safeguards community is faced with a host of challenges in the coming years, many of which have been outlined but have not been described in terms of their urgency. Literature regarding safeguards challenges is either broad and devoid of any reference to prioritization or tailored to a specific problem and removed from the overall goals of the safeguards community. For example, developing new methods of environmental sampling, improving containment and surveillance (C/S) technologies to increase efficiency and decrease inspection time, advancing nuclear material accountancy (NMA) techniques, and planning safeguards approaches for new types of nuclear facilities are all important. They have not, however, been distinctly prioritized at a high level within the safeguards community. Based on a review of existing literature and interviews with experts on these upcoming challenges, this paper offers a high-level summary of present and future priorities in safeguards, with attention both to what is feasible and to what is most imperative. In doing so, the paper addresses the potential repercussions for failing to prioritize, with a focus on the risk of diversion of nuclear material. Within the context of shifts in the American political landscape, and keeping in mind that nonproliferation issues may take a backseat to others in the near future, a prioritized view of safeguards objectives will be vital. In the interest of expanding upon this work, the paper offers several potential conceptual models for prioritization which can be explored in greater depth upon further research.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The Future of Scientific Computing

Attempts to predict the future have a long and inglorious history. Also, cultures from time immemorial have devoted their very best technologies to the task, utilizing apparatuses such as tea leaves, crystal balls, and animal entrails. But as Niels Bohr famously observed, “prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supply and Demand Constraints on Future PV Power in the USA: Preprint

An economic analysis with a defined uncertainty range is presented that considers whether the future deployment of utility-scale PV (UPV) systems in the USA will be limited by the supply of PV modules or by market demand for these systems. An analysis of global PV module manufacturing growth and the fraction of modules produced that will be available for installation in the USA gives a plausible range of cumulative capacity for the UPV segment of 50 - 170 GW in 2030 and 60 - 500 GW in 2040. A parallel analysis of the future demand for UPV systems in the USA indicates a plausible range for cumulative capacity of 80 - 230 GW in 2030 and 150 - 530 GW in 2040. The plausible ranges for supply and demand substantially overlap in both 2030 and 2040, suggesting that neither supply nor demand is more likely to limit PV deployment in the USA. Consequently, mechanisms for enabling growth in both supply and demand can benefit efforts intended to increase the deployment of PV in the USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Future Aviation Biofuel Analysis Using the Biomass Scenario Model

This presentation summarizes the findings from two articles that use the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) to explore potential future aviation biofuels scenarios. Newes et al. (2017) concluded that construction/build out capabilities and development of the feedstock market are key bottlenecks in the initial years. Displacement of jet fuel by 30% with biofuels by 2030 is possible, but several factors related to policy design-in the absence of high oil prices or policy uncertainty-contribute to the timing and magnitude of aviation biofuels production. First, incentives targeted toward jet fuel production, such as financial incentives (e.g., a producer tax credit or a CO2 tax) could be sufficient to reach six billion gallons. Second, R&D investment in pre-commercial technologies is needed to reduce the cost of production through learning-by-doing. Third, reduction of investment risk through loan guarantees and offtake agreements may allow production to ramp up more quickly through accelerating industry learning. Lewis et al. (2018) showed that both BSM and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible by 2030, given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate. However, different capital costs and technology maturation rates in the two models will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Protecting Future Platforms: Modernization, Innovation, and Implementation

As a requested speaker regarding advances in materials and potential (notional) protection schemes for the Future Ground Combat Vehicles Symposium; I will talk about: 1. INL and its macro level missions and capabilities; 2. INLs Advanced Manufacturing Initiatives; 3. The specific lethality systems that need to be considered (open source JANES Defense); 4. Advances in material science that may be used to address the kinetic threat in the future. All materials in the briefing are for external use; the science charts are linked to INL LDRDs, not customer funded programs and the foundations are open source.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Future Landscape of High-Redshift Galaxy Cluster Science

Modern galaxy cluster science is a multi-wavelength endeavor with cornerstones provided by X-ray, optical/IR, mm, and radio measurements. In combination, these observations enable the construction of large, clean, complete cluster catalogs, and provide precise redshifts and robust mass calibration. The complementary nature of these multi-wavelength data dramatically reduces the impact of systematic effects that limit the utility of measurements made in any single waveband. The future of multi-wavelength cluster science is compelling, with cluster catalogs set to expand by orders of magnitude in size, and extend, for the first time, into the high-redshift regime where massive, virialized structures first formed. Unlocking astrophysical and cosmological insight from the coming catalogs will require new observing facilities that combine high spatial and spectral resolution with large collecting areas, as well as concurrent advances in simulation modeling campaigns. Together, future multi-wavelength observations will resolve the thermodynamic structure in and around the first groups and clusters, distinguishing the signals from active and star-forming galaxies, and unveiling the interrelated stories of galaxy evolution and structure formation during the epoch of peak cosmic activity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Overview of the United States Department of Energy's Nuclear Criticality Safety Program and Future Challenges

The United States (US) Department of Energy (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) was formally established in January 1998 as part of the Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board (DNFSB) Recommendation 97-2 implementation plan. The NCSP was initially focused on seven NCSP tasks: Critical Experiments, Benchmarking, Analytical Methods, Nuclear Data, Training and Qualification, Information Preservation and Dissemination, and Applicable Ranges of Bounding Curves and Data. The first NCSP 5-year plan was published in August 1999. Now, more than 20 years later, NCSP continues to serve the United States and the nuclear criticality safety (NCS) community around five technical program elements (TPEs): Analytical Methods, Information Preservation and Dissemination, Integral Experiments, Nuclear Data, and Training and Education. NCSP has three chartered support groups, the Criticality Safety Support Group, the Nuclear Data Advisory Group, and the DOE Criticality Safety Coordinating Team, all of which provide technical advisement to the NCS community, to DOE, and to the NCSP manager. NCSP has a comprehensive mission and vision document that provides technical and budget priorities for TPE attributes and goals to ensure that the needs of the NCS community and DOE NCS are prioritized appropriately to meet the goals defined by the 1998 DNFSB recommendation. Like any DOE/NNSA program, NCSP faces significant challenges in the future that involves program funding, rising nuclear facility costs, aging critical assembly infrastructure, knowledge retention, and other issues. This paper discusses NCSP and provides some insights into these and other challenges moving into the future.

Bowen, Douglas G.↗

Detector R&D for ANNIE and Future Neutrino Experiments

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is designed to serve as a test bed for new detector technologies in future water and liquid scintillator based neutrino experiments. Located on the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab, ANNIE will be the first gadolinium-loaded water Cherenkov detector on a neutrino beam and will provide high statistics measurements of neutron yields from neutrino interactions in water. It is also the first particle physics application of the new photosensor technology: Large Area Picosecond Photodetectors (LAPPDs). With single photon time resolutions of roughly 50 psec and mm-level imaging capabilities, LAPPDs bring considerable new capabilities for neutrino reconstruction in Cherenkov and scintillator detectors. Leveraging this technology to make detailed neutrino measurements, ANNIE will serve as a first demonstration of their impact on physics. In addition to LAPPDs, the ANNIE R&D program will likely explore other new technologies such as the addition of water-based liquid scintillator. The ANNIE Phase II detector is currently under construction and will start to take data in the summer of 2019. In this talk, I will present on the ANNIE detector R&D program and its relevance to current and future neutrino experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Risk-Informed Applications and Science – Past, Present, & Future

This is a presentation to be made at the University of Tokyo. The Idaho National Laboratory is creating the next-generation reliability- and risk-assessment methods and tools that support risk-informed decision-making by combining physics-based models with probabilistic quantification approaches. Integrating these two worlds of physics and probability using a simulation framework leads us to predictions based upon an approach called “computational risk assessment” which will serve as the technical basis for the future of reliability and risk approaches. The driving factors for this new approach includes: temporal (timing issues), spatial (location issues), mechanistic (physics issues), and topological (complexity issues). By combining phenomenology directly with stochastic quantification, we are able to perform advanced uncertainty analysis directly on both parameters and models. In addition, new tools allow for the creation of reduced order models that mimic high-fidelity engineering models while still permitting the realization of thousands of simulation iterations in short run-times on current workstation-class computers. While these advanced methods and tools can provide increased realism in our engineering safety and risk approaches, their greater benefit is to provide a risk-informed engineering framework for design and operation. This talk will briefly review the history of risk assessment and risk-informed applications, describe some of the current research and development found at the Idaho National Laboratory, and discuss potential future applications and approaches for advanced methods and tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Basic Research Needs for Future Nuclear Energy (Brochure)

Concepts being developed for future, advanced nuclear reactors will go beyond producing an abundant, safe, reliable supply of electricity, to supporting lower-cost industrial production of materials and chemicals. However, realizing optimum future reactor concepts requires developing entirely different systems of coolants, fuels, and structural materials that can last through decades- to centuries-long reactor lifetimes and withstand some of the most extreme environments known—operational temperatures that could exceed 1000°C, intense radiation fields, and corrosive environments, among others.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

LASER-BASED MEASUREMENT TOOLS FOR FUTURE ENRICHMENT PLANT SAFEGUARDS

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has a long history of testing and using laser-based technologies for a variety of safeguards applications. Notable laser-based on-site applications include: 3-dimensional laser range (3DLR) instruments, used for facility design information and verification (DIV); laser measurements to verify unique labels and detect signs of tampering; and laser spectroscopy, for non-contact process monitoring. The IAEA is also evaluating analytical laboratory instruments, such as laser-ablation inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) for interrogating individual particles to determine uranium isotopic ratios in collected environment samples. Recent laser technology advancements will likely continue to fuel future IAEA adoption of new and novel laser-based safeguards tools. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is currently developing one such tool, called laser ablation, absorption ratio spectrometry (LAARS), for quantitative measurements of uranium material. LAARS uses three tunable diode lasers to simultaneously measure atomic 235U and 238U absorption in an ablation plume created by a fourth pulsed laser. Commercial availability of compact pulsed ablation lasers and the extreme wavelength accuracy and stability of PNNL’s tunable diode laser architecture play a pivotal role in achieving high fidelity LAARS assay measurements. The LAARS method is ultimately targeted for either on-site or laboratory-based 235U relative abundance measurements of destructive assay (DA) samples in support of uranium enrichment plant safeguards. DA samples are currently collected on-site, and then shipped to an analytical laboratory for mass spectrometric assay, because the measurement uncertainty requirements for this application are quite challenging. This paper will present the key elements of the LAARS laser system design, recent assay results on collected uranium hexafluoride (UF6) DA samples, and future operational configurations that may provide immediate on-site DA inspection results or rapid laboratory DA sample screening to prioritize further analysis by mass spectrometry.

IAEA, Safeguards, Uranium Enrichment Plants↗

Storage Futures Study: Four Phases Framework and Modeling

This webinar, presented by Paul Denholm and Will Frazier, incorporates material from two publications of the NREL Storage Futures Study: "The Four Phases of Storage Deployment: A Framework for the Expanding Role of Storage in the U.S. Power System" (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77480.pdf) and "Storage Futures Study: Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector" (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77449.pdf).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Enabling Combustion Science Simulations for Future Exascale Machines

Reacting flow simulations for combustion applications require extensive computing capabilities. Leveraging the AMReX library, the Pele suite of combustion simulation tools targets the largest supercomputers available and future exascale machines. We introduce PeleC, the compressible solver in the Pele suite, and detail its capabilities, including complex geometry representation, chemistry integration, and discretization. We present a comparison of development efforts using both OpenACC and AMReX's C++ performance portability framework for execution on multiple GPU architectures. We discuss relevant details that have allowed PeleC to achieve high performance and scalability. PeleC's performance characteristics are measured through relevant simulations on multiple supercomputers. The success of PeleC's design for exascale is exhibited through demonstration of a 160 billion cell simulation and weak scaling onto 100\% of Summit, an NVIDIA-based GPU supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Our results provide confidence that PeleC will enable future combustion science simulations with unprecedented fidelity.

combustion↗

A Brief Overview of Radiochemistry: f-Element Separations: The State of the Art and Future Directions

This chapter summarizes radiochemistry and its applications with a focus on areas where computational science can be beneficial. This is presented for a target audience of computational scientists and chemists, and the general public who are interested in radiochemistry topics that may benefit from the use of computational methods. Past, present, and future applications of radiochemistry are presented along with a brief examination of the field’s workforce. Discussions of the current state of several radiochemistry specialty areas are also included. These discussions generally exemplify topics that are readily amenable to computational tools. Topics discussed include medical uses for radioactive materials and related computational needs; the current and future trends in the separations of the f-block elements; production and uses of Californium-252; and the need for exascale computing to solve current problems in the chemistry of Americium and Plutonium.

Kimberlin, Ashleigh↗

Portability: A Necessary Approach for Future Scientific Software

Today's world of scientific software for High Energy Physics (HEP) is powered by x86 code, while the future will be much more reliant on accelerators like GPUs and FPGAs. The portable parallelization strategies (PPS) project of the High Energy Physics Center for Computational Excellence (HEP/CCE) is investigating solutions for portability techniques that will allow the coding of an algorithm once, and the ability to execute it on a variety of hardware products from many vendors, especially including accelerators. We think without these solutions, the scientific success of our experiments and endeavors is in danger, as software development could be expert driven and costly to be able to run on available hardware infrastructure. We think the best solution for the community would be an extension to the C++ standard with a very low entry bar for users, supporting all hardware forms and vendors. We are very far from that ideal though. We argue that in the future, as a community, we need to request and work on portability solutions and strive to reach this ideal.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Fiber-optic diagnostic system for future accelerator magnets

The next generation high energy physics accelerators will require magnetic fields at ~20 T. HTS coils will be an essential component of future accelerator magnets and several efforts are currently dedicated on designing 20 T HTS- LTS hybrid magnets. Among the existing challenges, there is the lack of a robust quench detection system for hybrid magnet technology. Another big challenge is represented by the high number of training quenches required by Nb3Sn magnets to reach performance level. In this framework it is important to find a tool that allow local real-time monitoring of magnet strain and temperature. In this paper, we propose the use of fiber optics sensors for diagnostic and quench detection in future accelerator superconducting magnets. Discrete and distributed fiber optic sensors have demonstrated to be a promising tool. The goal is to instrument hundreds of accelerator superconducting magnets and to move beyond the proof-of-concept level. Significant developments are still needed. Here, we are going to present the most recent results and discuss the most urgent technical developments in order to make those sensors a robust and reliable diagnostic tool for accelerator superconducting magnets over the next 10 year. We foresee that discrete fiber sensors will be a stable diagnostic probe for superconducting magnets over the next 3 to 5 years. More R&D work will be necessary for distributed fibers. The most urgent needs are the increase of sample rate and sensitivity. Close collaboration with vendors will be necessary to improve mechanical properties and fabrication processes in order to produce hundreds of meters of fiber and instrument a large number of accelerator superconducting magnets. Those R&D efforts will last up to 10 years with a founding level that spans between 5-10 M$.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Future Advances in Photon-Based Neutrino Detectors: A SNOWMASS White Paper

We discuss here new, enabling technologies for future photon-based neutrino detectors. These technologies touch nearly every aspect of such detectors: new scintillating materials, new methods of loading isotopes, new photon sensors and collectors, new approaches to simulation and analysis, and new front-end electronics and DAQ ideas. Of particular interest are technologies that enable broad physics programs in hybrid Cherenkov/scintillation detectors, such as slow fluors, water-based liquid scintillator, and spectral sorting of photons. Several new large-scale detector ideas are also discussed, including hybrid detectors like Theia, ArTEMIS, and generic slow-fluor detectors, as well as the very different SLIPs and LiquidO approaches to instrumenting photon-based detectors. A program of demonstrators for future detectors, including ANNIE, Eos, and NuDOT are also discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗