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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Walking on the dark side: Anthropogenic factors limit suitable habitat for gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) in a large natural area covering Belarus and Ukraine

Due to successful conservation initiatives and legislations, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is recolonising its historic range in Europe. However, wolves have never been extirpated across large areas in Eastern Europe but are often constrained to remote and inaccessible places due to centuries of persecution. This study aimed to identify the potentially suitable wolf habitats in Polesia, a massive cross-border lowland region extending over southern Belarus and northern Ukraine, which are often neglected in large carnivore studies at the continental scale. We hypothesized that anthropogenic rather than environmental factors govern wolf habitat suitability. We used a dataset of 4191 GPS locations obtained from radio-collared wolves (n = 26) and confirmed observations (n = 231) during 2014–2021 and applied maximum entropy method to estimate relative habitat suitability for wolves in Polesia. Artificial light at night (ALAN), proportion of cropland and tree cover were the most important factors affecting wolf habitat suitability. Road densities contributed poorly to predicting habitat suitability for wolves. Our models predicted a quarter of Polesia as suitable habitat and revealed priority areas connecting the important source populations in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone in the east and the Bialowieza Forest in the west and thus essential for long-term wolf conservation. Our results provide the bases for effective, long-term wolf monitoring and management programs in both Belarus and Ukraine. However, national and transboundary wolf management in Polesia has been extremely challenging since 2022 due to the ongoing war and subsequent habitat degradation in this part of Europe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Safety analysis of a Russian phage cocktail: From MetaGenomic analysis to oral application in healthy human subjects

Phage therapy has a long tradition in Eastern Europe, where preparations are comprised of complex phage cocktails whose compositions have not been described. We investigated the composition of a phage cocktail from the Russian pharmaceutical company Microgen targeting Escherichia coli/Proteus infections. Electron microscopy identified six phage types, with numerically T7-like phages dominating over T4-like phages. A metagenomic approach using taxonomical classification, reference mapping and de novo assembly identified 18 distinct phage types, including 7 genera of Podoviridae, 2 established and 2 proposed genera of Myoviridae, and 2 genera of Siphoviridae. De novo assembly yielded 7 contigs greater than 30 kb, including a 147-kb Myovirus genome and a 42-kb genome of a potentially new phage. Bioinformatic analysis did not reveal undesired genes and a small human volunteer trial did not associate adverse effects with oral phage exposure. - Highlights: • We analyzed the composition of a commercial Russian phage cocktail. • The cocktail consists of at least 10 different phage genera. • No undesired genes were detected. • No adverse effects were seen upon oral application in a small human clinical trial.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A pronounced decline in northern vegetation resistance to flash droughts from 2001 to 2022

Climate change has led to the transition of droughts into rapid and intensified phenomena known as flash droughts, presenting considerable challenges for risk management, particularly concerning their impact on ecosystem productivity. Quantifying the ecosystem’s capacity to maintain productivity during flash droughts, referred to as ecosystem resistance, is crucial to assess drought impacts. However, it remains uncertain how the resistance of ecosystem productivity to flash drought changes over time. Here we show that vegetation resistance to flash droughts declines by up to 27% (±5%) over the Northern Hemisphere hotspots during 2001-2022, including eastern Asia, western North America, and northern Europe. The notable decline in vegetation resistance is mainly attributed to increased vapour pressure deficit and temperature, and enhanced vegetation structural sensitivity to water availability. Flash droughts pose higher ecological risks than slowly-developing droughts during the growing seasons, where ecosystem productivity experiences faster decline rates with a shorter response time. Our results underscore the limited ecosystem capacity to resist flash droughts under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structural Inventory of Great Basin Geothermal Systems and Definition of Favorable Structural Settings

Structural controls of 426 geothermal systems in the Great Basin region including western Nevada, central Nevada, northwestern Nevada, northeastern Nevada, east-central Nevada, eastern California, southern Oregon, and western Utah were analyzed with literature research, air photos, Google Earth imagery, and/or field reviews. Of the systems analyzed, we were able to determine the structural settings of more than 240 sites. The structural catalogue is stored in a master spreadsheet included in this submission. Data components include structural setting, primary fault orientation, presence or absence of Quaternary faulting, reservoir lithology, geothermometry, presence or absence of recent magmatism, and distinguishing blind systems from those that have surface expressions. Systems were cataloged into the following eight major groups, based on the dominant pattern of faulting: - Major normal fault segments (i.e., near displacement maxima). - Fault bends. - Fault terminations or tips. - Step-overs or relay ramps in normal faults. - Fault intersections. - Accommodation zones (i.e., belts of intermeshing oppositely dipping normal faults), - Displacement transfer zones whereby strike-slip faults terminate in arrays of normal faults. - Transtensional pull-aparts. These settings form a hierarchal pattern with respect to fault complexity. - Major normal faults and fault bends are the simplest. - Fault terminations are typically more complex than mid-segments, as faults commonly break up into multiple strands or horsetail near their ends. - A fault intersection is generally more complex, as it generally contains both multiple fault strands and can include discrete dilational quadrants. - A step-over consists of two overlapping fault terminations and thus involves additional complexity, especially where the relay ramp is breached by multiple fault splays between the main overlapping faults and thus contains multiple fault intersections. - Accommodation zones involve further complexity, as they contain multiple fault terminations and fault intersections.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Radiative Role of Free Tropospheric Aerosols and Marine Clouds over the Central North Atlantic

The scientific scope of the project was to exploit the unique location of the Pico Mountain Observatory (PMO) located in the summit caldera of the Pico Volcano in Pico Island in the Azores, for atmospheric studies. The observatory, located at 2225m a.s.l., typically samples free tropospheric aerosols laying above the marine low-level clouds and long-range transported from North America. The broad purpose of this research was to provide the scientific community with a better understanding of fundamental physical processes governing the effects of aerosols on radiative forcing and climate; with the ultimate goal of improving our abilities to understand past climate and to predict future changes through numerical models. The project was 'exploratory' in nature, with the plan to demonstrate the feasibility of deploying for the first time, an extensive aerosol research package at PMO. One of the primary activities was to test the deployment of these instruments at the site, to collect data during the 2012 summer season, and to further develop the infrastructure and the knowledge for performing novel research at PMO in follow-up longer-term aerosol-cloud studies. In the future, PMO could provide an elevated research outpost to support the renewed DOE effort in the Azores that was intensified in 2013 with the opening of the new sea-level ARM-DOE Eastern North Atlantic permanent facility at Graciosa Island. During the project period, extensive new data sets were collected for the planned 2012 season. Thanks to other synergistic activities and opportunities, data collection was then successfully extended to 2013 and 2014. Highlights of the scientific findings during this project include: a) biomass burning contribute significantly to the aerosol loading in the North Atlantic free troposphere; however, long-range transported black carbon concentrations decreased substantially in the last decade. b) Single black carbon particles – analyzed off-line at the electron microscope – were often very compacted, suggesting cloud processing and exhibiting different optical properties from fresh emissions. In addition, black carbon was found to be sometimes mixed with mineral dust, affecting its optical properties and potential forcing. c) Some aerosols collected at PMO acted as ice nuclei, potentially contributing to cirrus cloud formation during their transport in the upper free troposphere. Identified good ice nuclei were often mineral dust particles. d) The free tropospheric aerosols studied at PMO have relevance to low level marine clouds due, for example, to synoptic subsidence entraining free tropospheric aerosols into the marine boundary layer. This has potentially large consequences on cloud condensation nuclei concentrations and compositions in the marine boundary layer; therefore, having an effect on the marine stratus clouds, with potentially important repercussions on the radiative forcing. The scientific products of this project currently include contributions to two papers published in the Nature Publishing group (Nature Communications and Scientific Reports), one paper under revision for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, one in review in Geophysical Research Letters and one recently submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion. In addition, four manuscripts are in advanced state of preparation. Finally, twenty-eight presentations were given at international conferences, workshops and seminars.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

INL Seismic Monitoring Annual Report: January 1, 2012 - December 31, 2012

During 2012, the Idaho National Laboratory Seismic Monitoring Program evaluated 17,329 independent triggers that included earthquakes from around the world, the western United States, and local region of the Snake River Plain. Seismologists located 1,460 earthquakes and man-made blasts within and near the 161-km (or 100-mile) radius of the Idaho National Laboratory. Of these earthquakes, 16 had small-to-moderate size magnitudes (M) from 3.0 to 3.6. Within the 161-km radius, the majority of 695 earthquakes (M < 3.6) occurred in the active regions of the Basin and Range Provinces adjacent to the eastern Snake River Plain. Only 11 microearthquakes occurred within the Snake River Plain, four of which occurred in Craters of the Moon National Monument. The earthquakes had magnitudes from 1.0 to 1.7 and occurred at deep depths (11-24 km). Two events with magnitudes less than 1.0 occurred within the Idaho National Laboratory boundaries and had depths less than 10 km.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A systems biology, whole-genome association analysis of the molecular regulation of biomass growth and composition in Populus deltoides

Poplars trees are well suited for biofuel production due to their fast growing habit, favorable wood composition and adaptation to a broad range of environments. The availability of a reference genome sequence, ease of vegetative propagation and availability of transformation methods also make poplar an ideal model for the study of wood formation and biomass growth in woody, perennial plants. The objective of this project was to conduct a genome-wide association genetics study to identify genes that regulate bioenergy traits in Populus deltoides (eastern cottonwood). Populus deltoides is a genetically diverse keystone forest species in North America and an important short rotation woody crop for the bioenergy industry. We searched for associations between eight growth and wood composition traits and common and low-frequency single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) detected by targeted resequencing of 18,153 genes in a population of 391 unrelated individuals. To increase power to detect associations with low-frequency variants, multiple-marker association tests were used in combination with single-marker association tests. Significant associations were discovered for all phenotypes and are indicative that low-frequency polymorphisms contribute to phenotypic variance of several bioenergy traits. These polymorphism are critical tools for the development of specialized plant feedstocks for bioenergy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A systems biology, whole-genome association analysis of the molecular regulation of biomass growth and composition in Populus deltoides

Poplars trees are well suited for biofuel production due to their fast growing habit, favorable wood composition and adaptation to a broad range of environments. The availability of a reference genome sequence, ease of vegetative propagation and availability of transformation methods also make poplar an ideal model for the study of wood formation and biomass growth in woody, perennial plants. The objective of this project was to conduct a genome-wide association genetics study to identify genes that regulate bioenergy traits in Populus deltoides (eastern cottonwood). Populus deltoides is a genetically diverse keystone forest species in North America and an important short rotation woody crop for the bioenergy industry. We searched for associations between eight growth and wood composition traits and common and low-frequency single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) detected by targeted resequencing of 18,153 genes in a population of 391 unrelated individuals. To increase power to detect associations with low-frequency variants, multiple-marker association tests were used in combination with single-marker association tests. Significant associations were discovered for all phenotypes and are indicative that low-frequency polymorphisms contribute to phenotypic variance of several bioenergy traits. These polymorphism are critical tools for the development of specialized plant feedstocks for bioenergy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mid-Atlantic Offshore Wind Interconnection and Transmission (MAOWIT)

This project has carried out a detailed analysis to evaluate the pros and cons of offshore transmission, a possible method to decrease balance-of-system costs and permitting time identified in the DOE Office Wind Strategic Plan (DOE, 2011). It also addresses questions regarding the adequacy of existing transmission infrastructure and the ability of existing generating resources to provide the necessary Ancillary Services (A/S) support (spinning and contingency reserves) in the ISO territory. This project has completed the tasks identified in the proposal: 1. Evaluation of the offshore wind resource off PJM, then examination of offshore wind penetrations consistent with U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) targets and with their assumed resource size (DOE, 2011). 2. Comparison of piecemeal radial connections to the Independent System Operator (ISO) with connections via a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) offshore network similar to a team partner. 3. High-resolution examination of power fluctuations at each node due to wind energy variability 4. Analysis of wind power production profiles over the Eastern offshore region of the regional ISO to assess the effectiveness of long-distance, North- South transmission for leveling offshore wind energy output 5. Analysis of how the third and fourth items affect the need for ISO grid upgrades, congestion management, and demand for Ancillary Services (A/S) 6. Analysis of actual historic 36-hr and 24-hr forecasts to solve the unit commitment problem and determine the optimal mix of generators given the need to respond to both wind variability and wind forecasting uncertainties.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Deployment of Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy on Indians Lands – A Community Solar Project

The Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI or Tribe) is a federally recognized Indian Tribe located on ancestral homelands in western North Carolina. The Tribe is comprised of just over 16,000 enrolled members, with an estimated 8,000 – 10,000 residing on tribal lands. The Qualla Boundary is comprised of over 56,000 acres of contiguous trust land adjacent to the Great Smoky Mountain National Park. The EBCI also possess an assortment of scattered parcels of varying sizes across western North Carolina, some in trust status and others in deeded or fee simple. This project was implemented on a trust parcel in Cherokee County, NC. The Tribe was awarded the maximum amount of $\$ $1,000,000 for the installation of a 705.6 kilowatt (kW) solar PV array to supplement the power consumed and reduce annual utility costs at the Harrah’s Cherokee Valley River (HCVR) casino and hotel in Murphy, NC. The casino is a tribal entity of the Tribe. The total cost of the project was $\$ $2.364 million. The system was officially commissioned on April 12, 2019. For the purpose of calculating the amount of power produced and reduction in utility costs, the time frame assessed is May 2019 through April 2020. All power generated was consumed onsite.Based on the first full year of data, the project achieved the estimated 8.3% reduction in utility costs. A total of six casino and tribal staff were trained and received a North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners (NABCEP) certification, giving our staff the resources and skills to manage and operate the solar PV array. Based on the Tribal match of $\$ $1,377,797 and estimated net annual benefit of $89,000, the estimated return on investment (ROI) is 15.48 years.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Two-Dimensional to One-Dimensional Site Response for Idaho National Laboratory

We perform two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and subsurface geometry of the Eastern Snake River Plane (ESRP), and quantify their effects on ground surface motion relative to one-dimensional (1D) site response analyses at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). We first present the development of random field idealizations of the repeated basalt lava flows, heterogeneously inter-layered with sediments, from seismic velocity data collected over four decades in the ESRP. Using realizations of the stochastic fields mapped on 2D deterministic finite element models, we perform 2D viscoelastic and equivalent-linear wave propagation simulations, and quantify the mean and variance of site response aggravation factors, defined as the response spectral ratio of 2D to 1D analyses on the ground surface. Results are shown to be insensitive to the constitutive material behavior considered here, for strains induced by rock outcrop peak ground acceleration (PGA) as high as 0.7g: viscoelastic and equivalent-linear analyses predict peak mean 2D/1D aggravation factor 1.05 at period T=0.075 sec (i.e. the 2D response spectrum is 5% higher than the corresponding 1D at that period, on average), which corresponds to the wavelength of the horizontal correlation length of the random field (50m). For periods longer than the fundamental period of the site (here, T 1 =0.3125 sec), the propagating wavelengths are too long to be affected by the 1D site response and the aggravation factor becomes equal to 1. The standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the 2D/1D aggravation factors is ~0.15 for periods shorter than the fundamental period of the site, and decays thereafter at a steady rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Anatomy of a Turtle Confiscation: What to Expect When You're Not Expecting and Recommendations for Improving Outcomes

Turtles are being subjected to unprecedented collection for the illegal wildlife trade, but only a portion of the trade is detected. When confiscations do happen, wildlife agencies must decide what to do with those animals—euthanize them, place them in permanent captivity, or release them back into the wild. Here, we present a case study of a confiscation of .200 eastern box turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) and our efforts to repatriate them back to the wild. Twentyfive percent of turtles died in captivity, and at least another 33% died during the soft-release phase. Approximately half of the confiscated turtles survived until they were released from their soft-release pen 9 months post-confiscation. For each phase, from the time turtles were seized until released, we describe our objectives, the challenges we encountered, and our recommendations for improving future turtle confiscations. Given the extended stressful conditions that confiscated turtles often experience before being seized, it is important to recalibrate our expectations regarding future confiscation outcomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Allometric and Mobile Terrestrial LiDAR Modeling of Aboveground Woody Biomass of Populus in Coppice Production

Poplars ( Populus spp.) and their hybrids are increasingly being grown in coppice production to generate bioenergy feedstocks at frequent intervals. Allometric equations are re-quired to predict aboveground biomass (AGB) of coppiced individuals with minimal field measurements. Likewise, remote sensing tools like LiDAR (light detection and ranging) can be used if models are available to predict AGB from point cloud data. Therefore, this study sought to develop equations to predict dry woody AGB from field measurements and LiDAR data from coppiced poplar field trials containing eastern cottonwood ( P. del-toides ) and hybrid poplar taxa. We found that taxa-specific allometric models containing the summed basal area of the three largest stems in the coppice provided the best predictive model, with stem height and stem count failing to provide additional explanatory power. The best predictive LiDAR-based model was independent of taxa but had slightly lower adjusted R 2 and higher RMSE than the allometric model. It contained four parameters including crown volume, leaf area index, variance of height returns, and the top point density (i.e., density metric 9 or the proportion of points in the highest point interval when the point cloud is evenly divided into ten vertical intervals). In total, these models can be used to quickly and efficiently estimate dry woody AGB of Populus coppice systems for bioenergy feedstock production.

AGB↗

Microbial communities respond to experimental warming, but site matters

Because microorganisms are sensitive to temperature, ongoing global warming is predicted to influence microbial community structure and function. We used large-scale warming experiments established at two sites near the northern and southern boundaries of US eastern deciduous forests to explore how microbial communities and their function respond to warming at sites with differing climatic regimes. Soil microbial community structure and function responded to warming at the southern but not the northern site. However, changes in microbial community structure and function at the southern site did not result in changes in cellulose decomposition rates. While most global change models rest on the assumption that taxa will respond similarly to warming across sites and their ranges, these results suggest that the responses of microorganisms to warming may be mediated by differences across the geographic boundaries of ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Foundation species loss affects vegetation structure more than ecosystem function in a northeastern USA forest

Loss of foundation tree species rapidly alters ecological processes in forested ecosystems. Tsuga canadensis, an hypothesized foundation species of eastern North American forests, is declining throughout much of its range due to infestation by the nonnative insect Adelges tsugae and by removal through pre-emptive salvage logging. In replicate 0.81-ha plots, T. canadensis was cut and removed, or killed in place by girdling to simulate adelgid damage. Control plots included undisturbed hemlock and mid-successional hardwood stands that represent expected forest composition in 50–100 years. Vegetation richness, understory vegetation cover, soil carbon flux, and nitrogen cycling were measured for two years prior to, and five years following, application of experimental treatments. Litterfall and coarse woody debris (CWD), including snags, stumps, and fallen logs and branches, have been measured since treatments were applied. Overstory basal area was reduced 60%–70% in girdled and logged plots. Mean cover and richness did not change in hardwood or hemlock control plots but increased rapidly in girdled and logged plots. Following logging, litterfall immediately decreased then slowly increased, whereas in girdled plots, there was a short pulse of hemlock litterfall as trees died. CWD volume remained relatively constant throughout but was 3–4× higher in logged plots. Logging and girdling resulted in small, short-term changes in ecosystem dynamics due to rapid regrowth of vegetation but in general, interannual variability exceeded differences among treatments. Soil carbon flux in girdled plots showed the strongest response: 35% lower than controls after three years and slowly increasing thereafter. Ammonium availability increased immediately after logging and two years after girdling, due to increased light and soil temperatures and nutrient pulses from leaf-fall and reduced uptake following tree death. The results from this study illuminate ecological processes underlying patterns observed consistently in region-wide studies of adelgid-infested hemlock stands. Mechanisms of T. canadensis loss determine rates, magnitudes, and trajectories of ecological changes in hemlock forests. Logging causes abrupt, large changes in vegetation structure whereas girdling (and by inference, A. tsugae) causes sustained, smaller changes. Ecosystem processes depend more on vegetation cover per se than on species composition. We conclude that the loss of this late-successional foundation species will have long-lasting impacts on forest structure but subtle impacts on ecosystem function.

logging↗

Mechanisms Controlling the Interannual Variation of Mixed Layer Temperature Averaged over the Nino-3 Region

The present study examines processes governing the interannual variation of MLT in the eastern equatorial Pacific.Processes controlling the interannual variation of mixed layer temperature (MLT) averaged over the Nino-3 domain (5 deg N-5 deg S, 150 deg-90 deg W) are studied using an ocean data assimilation product that covers the period of 1993-2003. The overall balance is such that surface heat flux opposes the MLT change but horizontal advection and subsurface processes assist the change. Advective tendencies are estimated here as the temperature fluxes through the domain's boundaries, with the boundary temperature referenced to the domain-averaged temperature to remove the dependence on temperature scale. This allows the authors to characterize external advective processes that warm or cool the water within the domain as a whole. The zonal advective tendency is caused primarily by large-scale advection of warm-pool water through the western boundary of the domain. The meridional advective tendency is contributed to mostly by Ekman current advecting large-scale temperature anomalies through the southern boundary of the domain. Unlike many previous studies, the subsurface processes that consist of vertical mixing and entrainment are explicitly evaluated. In particular, a rigorous method to estimate entrainment allows an exact budget closure. The vertical mixing across the mixed layer (ML) base has a contribution in phase with the MLT change. The entrainment tendency due to the temporal change in ML depth is negligible compared to other subsurface processes. The entrainment tendency by vertical advection across the ML base is dominated by large-scale changes in upwelling and the temperature of upwelling water. Tropical instability waves (TIWs) result in smaller-scale vertical advection that warms the domain during La Nina cooling events. However, such a warming tendency is overwhelmed by the cooling tendency associated with the large-scale upwelling by a factor of 2. In summary, all the balance terms are important in the MLT budget except the entrainment due to lateral induction and temporal variation in ML depth. All three advective tendencies are primarily caused by large-scale and low-frequency processes, and they assist the Nino-3 MLT change.

eastern equatorial Pacific↗