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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Tidal Prediction

Tides are the most predictable of oceanographic phenomena, due both to the simplicity and predictability of the astronomical forcing and to the near linearity of the ocean's dynamical response. In the classical and simplest scenario, tidal prediction is based on harmonic analysis of past measurements at a fixed location. Limits to predictability arise because isolated astronomical spectral lines are broadened into "cusps" of incoherent energy, for example through interactions with non-tidal flows. Tidal prediction at locations without past measurements has historically been a major challenge, but, owing to near-global observations of modern satellite altimeters, the empirical harmonic approach now yields reasonably accurate predictions throughout most of the open ocean. Advances in numerical modeling and data assimilation allow these predictions to be refined (especially in shallow seas where observations remain insufficient to directly constrain tidal wave structure) and extended to include tidal currents. We review recent progress in the development of global and regional-scale tidal prediction capabilities, summarize accuracy of available charts, and briefly consider outstanding issues. Satellite altimetry has also helped unravel the global tidal energy budget and has clarified the role of internal tides as a sink of tidal energy. We summarize these results, and then turn to the challenging problem of predicting internal tides. To the extent that low modes remain coherent with the surface tide, elevations can be directly mapped. We review current efforts in this direction, which are already producing charts with predictive capability. However, internal tides (especially higher modes) interact much more strongly with lower-frequency ocean flows, so a significant fraction of this tidal signal is intermittent and incoherent. We close with a brief review of ongoing efforts to model global tides in combination with wind-forced ocean motions.

Harmonic Constants↗

Soyuz Occupant Risk

Spaceflight has unique challenges for Occupant Protection. Current NASA Occupant Protection Requirements are based on military and automotive biodynamics research: Brinkley Dynamic Response Criteria; Hybrid III Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD). Soyuz offers unique insight into the role of spaceflight deconditioning on impact tolerance. Project Objectives: 1. Develop a landing injury database; 2. Obtain seat acceleration data from TMA (Soyuz-TMA: Transport Modified Anthropometric) landings; 3. Re-create Soyuz landings using models; 4. Update NASA occupant protection standards as needed.

Newby, Nate↗

Analyzing Seasonal Forcing Mechanisms of the Martian Polar Warming with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

The meridional transport of heat, momentum, water, dust, trace species and gases is critical for the control of Mars’ climate. Though the nature and structure of the mean meridional circulation has been previously studied, questions remain regarding the seasonal forcing mechanisms, and the implications on the combined thermal and dynamical response for Mars’ climate. A useful diagnostic of the mean meridional circulation and transport in the middle atmosphere is polar warming.

Brecht, A. S.↗

An Improved Plastically Dilatant Unified Viscoplastic Constitutive Formulation for Multiscale Analysis of Polymer Matrix Composites Under High Strain Rate Loading

Polymer matrix composites are commonly used to fabricate energy-absorbing structures expected to experience impact loading. As such, a detailed understanding of the dynamic response of the constituent materials is necessary. Since the rate, temperature, and pressure dependence of carbon fiber reinforced polymer matrix composites are primarily manifestations of the rate, temperature, and pressure dependence of the polymer matrix, it is crucial that the constitutive behavior of the matrix be accurately characterized. In this work, an existing unified viscoplastic constitutive formulation is extended to ensure thermodynamic consistency and to more accurately account for the tension-compression asymmetry observed in the response of polymeric materials. A new plastic potential function is proposed, and elementary loading conditions are utilized to determine relations between model constants to ensure nonnegative plastic dissipation, a necessary thermodynamic requirement. Expressions for plastic Poisson’s ratios are derived and are bounded by enforcing nonnegative plastic dissipation. The model is calibrated against available experimental data from tests conducted over a range of strain rates, temperatures, and loading cases on a representative thermoset epoxy; good correlation between simulations and experimental data is obtained. Temperature rises due to the conversion of plastic work to heat are computed via the adiabatic heat energy equation. The viscoplastic polymer model is then used as a constitutive model in the generalized method of cells micromechanics theory to investigate the effects of matrix adiabatic heating on the high strain rate response of a unidirectional composite. The thermodynamic consistency of the model ensures plastic dissipation can only cause an increase in temperature. Simulation results indicate that significant thermal softening due to the conversion of plastic work to heat is observed in the composite for matrix dominated deformation modes.

Impact loading↗

Lunar Transient Accelerations White Paper

Recently, the United States announced a plan to return astronauts to the moon by 2024 [8]. Lunar landing (and subsequent Mars landing) architecture was not considered when the current NASA standards and vehicle design requirements for crew injury risk were developed. Therefore a gap exists in protecting the crew in planetary landing scenarios. One of the interesting aspects of this design reference mission (DRM)is the consideration of having the crew stand during dynamic phases of flight. Although this approach was contemplated for the Apollo Lunar Module, current NASA standards do not address design solutions that allow the crew to stand. Currently, NASA uses several tools and associated limits to mitigate crew injury because of dynamic loads. Some of these tools are the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criterion (BDRC) model and Hybrid III Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) [10]; and these have several limitations for assessing spaceflight loading environments, as well as specific underlying assumptions that may not be applicable in planetary landing vehicles. The BDRC is a simple lumped mass parameter model developed by the U.S. military, and has been used primarily to evaluate injury risk associated with aircraft ejection systems. The model evaluates seat accelerations in each axis to determine injury risk. Because the model treats the human-seat-restraint system as a single system, it is contingent on a restraint system and seat with similar characteristics of the original test data underlying the model. In particular, the model requires a rigid seat with a minimum natural frequency of 15Hz, minimal seat pan padding, side supports, and multipoint harness. The BDRC model uses undamped natural frequency and damping coefficients based on these requirements and any deviations may render the model injury predictions void. In lunar landing, one expects that a minimal or even no seat with minimal restraints will be employed. In this case, the original model parameters are likely to not be applicable. For capsule-based spacecraft returning crew to Earth, the Hybrid III ATD in various sizes also is used to supplement the BDRC. This analytical tool was added to address limitations in the BDRC related to spacecraft landings while wearing a pressure garment and helmet. Although the Hybrid III ATD has additional measurement capability; head, neck,and lumbar spine responses were the only metrics included because of the limitations imposed by the model.Lunar landing acceleration limits must assume the crew is standing during landing, an orientation for which we have limited data.Although the Apollo missions did employ a standing orientation for the crew, much of the data is lost. Therefore data from othersources havebeen examined to inform lunar landing acceleration limits.

Jeffrey T Somers↗

Development of a THOR Anthropometric Test Device Lumbar Spine Injury Risk Function

Currently, the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criteria (BDRC) is used to assess the risk of thoraco-lumbar spinal injury for astronauts. The BDRC has been validated for predicting injury in military aircraft ejections (Brinkley, 1968; Brinkley and Schaffer, 1971). The objective of this study was to use the injurious data behind the BDRC and subinjurious human-volunteer data to develop an injury risk function for the Test device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR) to predict probability of thoraco-lumbar spine injury during space vehicle landings.

Jessica Wells↗

From the Upper Troposphere Through the Stratosphere: How Satellite Measurements Help Us Decode the Past to Better Project the Future

Decades of observations of key chemical species are allowing us to more fully understand processes important to transport and composition from the upper troposphere through the stratosphere. This talk will focus on a few examples and how they are informing our understanding of variability, trends, and future projections. The growth of the Antarctic ozone hole (late 1970s – mid 1990s) caused a dynamical perturbation to the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation visible in ozone, one of our longest and best observed chemical constituents, and illustrates the connection between chemical change and the coupled radiative and dynamical response that challenges chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical stratosphere, however its impacts on stratospheric circulation and composition can be traced globally. The QBOs timing with respect to the seasonal cycle in each hemisphere is significant in understanding its impact on up to decadal scale variability. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which dominates tropical tropospheric interannual variability, also affects the stratosphere and its influence is visible in our growing record of tropospheric and stratospheric composition measurements. I will discuss how our knowledge of response has grown and how representation of these observed responses in CCMs is key both to understanding recent trends and to reducing uncertainty in future changes of composition.

Luke David Oman↗

Multidisciplinary Dynamic Testing Challenges in Validating the NASA Artemis Architecture

NASA is in the midst of bold and exciting next steps in human exploration and spaceflight. The designs of the new Space Launch System (SLS), the Orion spacecraft and the Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) for vehicle processing and launch are essentially complete and there has been significant progress in manufacturing and assembly of specific hardware for the Artemis I and Artemis II missions. Equally as important, the program level and integrated system level testing and analyses are also well underway to support integrated verification, validation, and certificate of flight readiness (CoFR) for the first Artemis mission. Testing and analysis are key to addressing technical challenges that the Artemis missions offer. Building block approaches are required that provide the right balance between component, system, and/or element level testing that satisfies verification and validation objectives and where, uncertainties are quantified and minimized. Artemis I is a system of systems that requires a fusion of test and analysis that adeptly characterizes critical interfaces between major program elements. NASA is implementing new in-situ testing that fuse traditional aerospace structures with civil structures, such as the Integrated Modal Test for the Artemis I vehicle where the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter serve as a support structure whose dynamics couple with that of the Artemis I vehicle. This new paradigm requires a closer inspection of structural behavior of the Crawler Transporter and the Mobile Launcher as they now serve multiple purposes. This requires a paradigm shift to look beyond experimental modal techniques and incorporates operational modal analysis techniques to validate dynamic models from data collected during rollout to the launch pad. A further complicating factor is the Crawler Transporter generated ground forces have numerous harmonics making extracting dynamic responses of the Artemis I, Mobile Launcher, and Crawler Transporter coupled system challenging. This discussion explores all these challenges with and attempts to understand how we best build confidence in systems and system-of-systems performance capabilities and margins and understand uncertainties.

Joel W Sills↗

Modeling and Simulation of Rotary Sloshing in Launch Vehicles

The nonlinear dynamics of propellant sloshing during orbital ascent are usually neglected in the flight control analysis of large boost vehicles under the assumption that the viscous damping of the fluid is sufficient to suppress nonlinear phenomena and confine the fluid to small, planar free surface displacements. In this case, the sloshing dynamics can be modeled using a spring-mass-damper or linearized pendulum mechanical analog. However, large, smooth-wall tanks without significant internal hardware or ring baffles are still susceptible to nonlinear effects. In particular, rotary sloshing can present a risk to flight control as it involves the formation of a stable limit cycle which can lead to undesirable roll coupling. The underlying phenomena of jump resonance does not manifest in linear models, but can be reproduced using a nonlinear spherical pendulum or the Bauer paraboloid model developed during the Apollo/Saturn program. In this paper, a detailed analysis of the rotary sloshing dynamics of these mechanical analogs is presented, and discussed in the context of flight control stability. High-fidelity simulations of a representative boost vehicle are used to verify the semi-analytical predictions of the nonlinear dynamic response.

Modeling↗

Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes

Quantifying changes in Earth’s ice sheets and identifying the climate drivers are central to improving sea level projections. We provide unified estimates of grounded and floating ice mass change from 2003 to 2019 using NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and ICESat-2 satellite laser altimetry. Our data reveal patterns likely linked to competing climate processes: Ice loss from coastal Greenland (increased surface melt), Antarctic ice shelves (increased ocean melting), and Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers (dynamic response to ocean melting) was partially compensated by mass gains over ice sheet interiors (increased snow accumulation). Losses outpaced gains, with grounded-ice loss from Greenland (200 billion tonnes per year) and Antarctica (118 billion tonnes per year) contributing 14 millimeters to sea level. Mass lost from West Antarctica’s ice shelves accounted for more than 30% of that region’s total.

Ben Smith↗

Practical Aspects of Multiple-Input Design for Aircraft System Identification Flight Tests

Practical aspects of multiple-input design methods for aircraft system identification flight tests are discussed. The orthogonal optimized multisine multiple-input design technique is explained and demonstrated, along with useful variations. Practical implementation and application issues associated with applying orthogonal optimized multisine inputs in flight are explained, and solutions are demonstrated using flight data from full-scale and subscale aircraft, as well as simulated flight data from an F-16 nonlinear simulation. Topics include truncated and extended excitation inputs, variations for control effectors with limited movement capabilities, aircraft dynamic response to excitation inputs, pilot implementation, statistical uncertainty quantification, multiple-input efficiency and effectiveness, flight testing with active feedback control, frequency-response estimation, control actuator modeling, and control interaction effects. Examples demonstrate that the orthogonal optimized multisine input design method is a practical, versatile, and effective approach for designing multiple excitation inputs for aircraft system identification flight tests.

Multiple-Input Design↗

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modelling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally-based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

Climate↗

Treatment of Transient Pressure Events in Space Flight Pressurized Systems

The general physics of pressure transients, sources of pressure transients, and major factors influencing pressure transients are addressed. Mitigation strategies that aid in reducing the magnitude of pressure transients are discussed. Methods to characterize pressure transients and their effects on the structure are presented. Case studies illustrate the structural analysis methodology used to predict the structural dynamic response. The structural verification process involves formulating acceptance and qualification programs, which requires knowledge of the stress state. The maximum expected operating pressure (MEOP) is established such that the maximum stress produced by static pressure is equivalent to the maximum stress at the same critical location produced by the combined effect of steady state pressure and the magnitude of the pressure transient. A roadmap on how to treat transient pressures in the structural verification process of spaceflight pressurized systems (e.g., valves, lines, pressure vessels, pressurized structures) is presented.

Transient Pressure Events↗

Faster Exo-Earth Yield for HabEx and LUVOIR via Extreme Precision Radial Velocity Prior Knowledge

The HabEx and LUVOIR mission concepts reported science yields for mission scenarios in which the instruments must search for potentially habitable planets, determine their orbits, and, if worthwhile, invest the integration time for a spectral characterization. We evaluate the impact of prior knowledge of planet existence and orbital parameters on yield for four mission concept architectures: HabEx 4m telescope with hybrid starshade and coronagraph, HabEx4m telescope with starshade only, HabEx 4m telescope with coronagraph only, and LUVOIR B8m telescope with coronagraph only. We use perfect prior knowledge to establish an upperbound on yield and use partial prior knowledge from a potential future extreme precision radial velocity (EPRV) instrument with3cm∕ssensitivity. We detail a modeling framework that per-forms dynamically responsive observation scheduling with realistic mission constraints. We evaluate exo-Earth yields against three metrics of spectral characterization for the four mission architectures and three levels of prior knowledge (none, partial, and perfect). The EPRV pro-vided prior knowledge increases yields by∼30%and accelerates by a factor of 3 to 6 the time to achieve half of the yield of the mission. Prior knowledge makes all the mission architectures more nimble and powerful, and most especially starshade-based architectures. With prior knowledge, a small telescope with a starshade can achieve comparable yield to a larger telescope with a coronagraph.

Rhonda Morgan↗

Standard Evaluation of exoplanet Yield for the LUVOIR and HabEx Concept Studies

The HabEx and LUVOIR mission concepts aim to directly image and spectrally characterize potentially habitable exoplanets. We use EXOSIMS to simulate design reference missions with observation scheduling to determine yield of exoplanets detected, spectrally characterized, and orbits determined. EXOSIMS performs dynamically responsive scheduling with realistic mission observing constraints on Monte Carlo universes of synthetic planets around known nearby stars. We use identical astrophysical inputs and the individual observing scenarios of each concept to evaluate a common comparison of the detection and spectral characterization yields of HabEx and LUVOIR. HabEx is evaluated for the 4m hybrid starshade and coronagraph architecture, the 4m coronagraph only architecture, and the 4 m starshade only architecture. LUVOIR is evaluated for the 8 m architecture of their final report. Yield analysis shows that both concepts can directly image and spectrally characterize earth-like planets in the habitable zone and that each concept has complementary strengths.

Keithly, Dean↗

fmdtools Tutorial: Intro to Resilience Modelling, Simulation, and Visualization in Python With fmdtools

This workshop will cover the basics of using the fmdtools package for the simulation of hazardous scenarios for resilience simulation. The fmdtools simulation package is an open-source python toolkit for simulating the dynamic response of a system to internal and externally-driven hazardous scenarios, including faults and environmental conditions, that can be used to analyze the risks related to these hazards. Prior to the development of fmdtools, researchers had to either adapt an (often limited) propriety toolkit or develop their own design/simulation/analysis codes to develop their models of hazardous events, a significant technical burden to both (1) leveraging resilience modeling methodologies and (2) extending these methodologies with their own contributions. The fmdtools package provides a number of model constructs and simulation and analysis methods to enable the designer to focus to solely on their modeling case-study while still enabling a significant degree of model expressiveness and adaptability via Python-based model definition. This tutorial will present the setup of fmdtools and a high-level overview of its use, as well as some simple examples for understanding how to leverage its modelling, simulation, and analysis capabilities. Familiarity with jupyter notebook and basic python will be assumed.

Daniel Hulse↗

Design, Instrumentation, and Data Analysis for the SLS Core Stage Green Run Test Series

The Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage (CS) Thrust Vector Control (TVC) system is comprised of eight mechanical feedback Shuttle heritage Type III TVC actuators and four RS-25 engines, each attached to a Shuttle heritage gimbal block/bearing. The actuators are powered by a Shuttle-derived hydraulic Core Auxiliary Power Unit (CAPU), and integrated with an all-new Core Stage thrust structure. The actuators are interfaced to the SLS Vehicle Management (VM) software via an all-new TVC Actuator Control (TAC) avionics subsystem. Despite the significant test and flight experience of the Shuttle hardware, the SLS Green Run ambient and hot fire test activities revealed a number of new findings associated with the dynamic response of the TVC integrated system. Test responses suggested that the TVC system did not meet its performance specifications and its step and frequency responses exhibited unexpected departures from prior lab tests and modeled behavior. This paper is the fifth installment in a seven-paper series surveying the design, engineering, test validation, and flight performance of the Core Stage Thrust Vector Control system. In this paper, the design of the TVC analyses conducted during the Core Stage Green Run test series are discussed in detail. Throughout the course of the test activities, the SLS flight control team worked diligently with the Core Stage contractor to revise test command profiles and ensure sufficient instrumentation was available to collect data. Post-test analysis combined the Green Run modal, ambient, and hot fire test data, MSFC 2- axis Core Stage TVC Inertial Load Simulator (ILS) data, Hardware-In-the-Loop (HWIL) Systems Integration Lab (SIL) results, and actuator Acceptance Testing Procedure (ATP) responses. These data were used to characterize the response, validate critical math models of the TVC subsystem, and isolate the probable cause of the unexpected responses. Through comprehensive analysis of the available test data sources, the integrated team identified the dominant contributors to the observed response and developed test-correlated rationale for vehicle flight control system performance, ultimately leading to a confident posture for the Artemis I mission.

John H. Wall↗

Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics-Based Whole Geospace Modeling

The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on February 3-4. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first-principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400-500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2012 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼ 200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2012 suggest only ∼ 50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm-time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and travelling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high-latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics-based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high-latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time.

Starlink↗