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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Improving Schrödinger Equation Implementations with Gray Code for Adiabatic Quantum Computers

We reformulate the continuous-space Schrödinger equation in terms of spin Hamiltonians. For the kinetic energy operator, the critical concept facilitating the reduction in model complexity is the idea of position encoding. A binary encoding of position produces a spin-1/2 Heisenberg-like model and yields exponential improvement in space complexity when compared to classical computing. Encoding with a binary reflected Gray code (BRGC), and a Hamming-distance-2 Gray code (H2GC) reduces the model complexity down to the 𝑋⁢𝑍 and transverse Ising model, respectively. For 𝐴 qubits BRGC yields 2 𝐴 positions and is reduced to its 2-local form with O⁡(𝐴) ancillary qubits. H2GC yields 2 𝐴/2+1 positions with O⁡(𝐴 2 ) three-local penalty terms. We also identify the bijective mapping between diagonal unitaries and the Walsh series, producing the mapping of any real potential to a series of 𝑘 -local Ising models through the fast Walsh transform. Finally, in a finite volume, we provide some numerical evidence to support the claim that the total time needed for adiabatic evolution is protected by the infrared cutoff of the system. As a result, initial state preparation from a free-field wave function to an interacting system is expected to exhibit polynomial time complexity with volume and constant scaling with respect to lattice discretization for all encodings. For H2GC, if the evolution starts with the transverse Hamiltonian due to hardware restrictions, then penalties are dynamically introduced such that the low-lying spectrum reproduces the energy levels of the Laplacian. The adiabatic evolution of the penalty Hamiltonian is therefore sensitive to the ultraviolet scale. It is expected to exhibit polynomial time complexity with lattice discretization, or exponential time complexity with respect to the number of qubits given a fixed volume.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Sequential Shifting Algorithm for Variable Rotor Speed Control

A proof of concept of a continuously variable rotor speed control methodology for rotorcraft is described. Variable rotor speed is desirable for several reasons including improved maneuverability, agility, and noise reduction. However, it has been difficult to implement because turboshaft engines are designed to operate within a narrow speed band, and a reliable drive train that can provide continuous power over a wide speed range does not exist. The new methodology proposed here is a sequential shifting control for twin-engine rotorcraft that coordinates the disengagement and engagement of the two turboshaft engines in such a way that the rotor speed may vary over a wide range, but the engines remain within their prescribed speed bands and provide continuous torque to the rotor; two multi-speed gearboxes facilitate the wide rotor speed variation. The shifting process begins when one engine slows down and disengages from the transmission by way of a standard freewheeling clutch mechanism; the other engine continues to apply torque to the rotor. Once one engine disengages, its gear shifts, the multi-speed gearbox output shaft speed resynchronizes and it re-engages. This process is then repeated with the other engine. By tailoring the sequential shifting, the rotor may perform large, rapid speed changes smoothly, as demonstrated in several examples. The emphasis of this effort is on the coordination and control aspects for proof of concept. The engines, rotor, and transmission are all simplified linear models, integrated to capture the basic dynamics of the problem.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

Distributed Stochastic Optimization of a Neural Representation Network for Time-Space Tomography Reconstruction

4D time-space reconstruction of dynamic events or deforming objects using X-ray computed tomography (CT) is an important inverse problem in non-destructive evaluation. Conventional back-projection based reconstruction methods assume that the object remains static for the duration of several tens or hundreds of X-ray projection measurement images (reconstruction of consecutive limited-angle CT scans). However, this is an unrealistic assumption for many in-situ experiments that causes spurious artifacts and inaccurate morphological reconstructions of the object. To solve this problem, we propose to perform a 4D time-space reconstruction using a distributed implicit neural representation (DINR) network that is trained using a novel distributed stochastic training algorithm. Our DINR network learns to reconstruct the object at its output by iterative optimization of its network parameters such that the measured projection images best match the output of the CT forward measurement model. Here, we use a forward measurement model that is a function of the DINR outputs at a sparsely sampled set of continuous valued 4D object coordinates. Unlike previous neural representation architectures that forward and back propagate through dense voxel grids that sample the object's entire time-space coordinates, we only propagate through the DINR at a small subset of object coordinates in each iteration resulting in an order-of-magnitude reduction in memory and compute for training. DINR leverages distributed computation across several compute nodes and GPUs to produce high-fidelity 4D time-space reconstructions. We use both simulated parallel-beam and experimental cone-beam X-ray CT datasets to demonstrate the superior performance of our approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model: New Insights into Modeling the Pre-Industrial Atmosphere - 2

We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present day to pre-industrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GMC). We identify three main improvements not included by many other works. Firstly, our model includes interactive cloud calculations. Secondly we reduce sulfate aerosol which impacts NOx partitioning hence Ox distributions. Thirdly we reduce sea surface temperatures and increase ocean ice coverage which impact water vapor and ground albedo respectively. Changing the ocean data (hence water vapor and ozone) produces a potentially important feedback between the Hadley circulation and convective cloud cover. Our present day run (run 1, control run) global mean OH value was 9.8 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. For our best estimate of pre-industrial conditions run (run 2) which featured modified chemical emissions, sulfate aerosol and sea surface temperatures/ocean ice, this value changed to 10.2 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing only the chemical emissions to pre-industrial levels in run 1 (run 3) resulted in this value increasing to 10.6 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing the sulfate in run 3 to pre-industrial levels (run 4) resulted in a small increase in global mean OH (10.7 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc). Changing the ocean data in run 4 to pre-industrial levels (run 5) led to a reduction in this value to 10.3 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Mean tropospheric ozone burdens were 262, 181, 180, 180, and 182 Tg for runs 1-5 respectively.

Grenfell, J. Lee↗

A long short-term memory embedding for hybrid uplifted reduced order models

In this paper, we introduce an uplifted reduced order modeling (UROM) approach through the integration of standard projection based methods with long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding. Our approach has three modeling layers or components. In the first layer, we utilize an intrusive projection approach to model dynamics represented by the largest modes. The second layer consists of an LSTM model to account for residuals beyond this truncation. This closure layer refers to the process of including the residual effect of the discarded modes into the dynamics of the largest scales. However, the feasibility of generating a low rank approximation tails off for higher Kolmogorov n -width systems due to the underlying nonlinear processes. The third uplifting layer, called super-resolution, addresses this limited representation issue by expanding the span into a larger number of modes utilizing the versatility of LSTM. Therefore, our model integrates a physics-based projection model with a memory embedded LSTM closure and an LSTM based super-resolution model. In several applications, we exploit the use of Grassmann manifold to construct UROM for unseen conditions. We performed numerical experiments by using the Burgers and Navier-Stokes equations with quadratic nonlinearity. Finally, our results show robustness of the proposed approach in building reduced order models for parameterized systems and confirm the improved trade-off between accuracy and efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Molecular Structure and Electron Affinity of Metal-Solvent Complexes: Insights from Density Functional Theory Simulations

A molecular level understanding of the structure and energetics of the monovalent and divalent metal ion complexes is of great importance for development of next-generation batteries. Here, Density Functional Theory (DFT) simulations at the ωb97xD/6-31 + G(d,p) level of theory are performed to investigate the interaction of metal ions (Li + , Na + , K + , Mg 2+ , Ca 2+ , Zn 2+ ) with 26 organic solvent molecules. The reduction energetics (electron affinity and reduction potential) and structural responses of the solvent molecules and the molecular complexes are discussed. The DFT calculations are carried out to investigate the structure, energetics and electron affinities of chelated complexes of water (H 2 O), tetrahydrofuran (THF) and di-methoxy ethane (DME) solvent molecules. Additionally, ab initio dynamic simulations (AIMD) at 298 K using atom centered density matrix propagation (ADMP) formalism are performed to understand the spontaneous structure formation upon electron attachment of the metal ion-solvent complexes. The ADMP simulations indicate the decomposition of Mg + -(DME) 3 complex via cleavage of C–O bond of one of the three DME molecules indicating irreversible decomposition of DME in the presence of the Mg + radical. We believe that the data collected as part of this investigation serves as a library of fundamental knowledge towards a deeper understanding of the electrode-electrolyte interfacial reactions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Sulfurized Polyacrylonitrile for High-Performance Lithium–Sulfur Batteries: In-Depth Computational Approach Revealing Multiple Sulfur’s Reduction Pathways and Hidden Li + Storage Mechanisms for Extra Discharge Capacity

Like no other sulfur host material, polyacrylonitrile-derived sulfurized carbon (SPAN) promises improved electrochemical performance for lithium–sulfur batteries, based on its compatibility with carbonate solvents and ability to prevent self-discharge and shuttle effect. However, a complete understanding of the SPAN’s lithiation mechanism is still missing because its structural features vary widely with synthesis conditions, and its electrochemical performance deviates from elemental sulfur. This study continues our research on the elucidation of the SPAN’s structural characteristics and lithiation mechanisms via computational approaches. Here, our models reproduce most experimental data regarding carbon’s graphitization level and conjugated ordering, sulfur–carbon covalent bonding, sulfur loading, and elemental composition. Our simulations emulate the discharge voltage observed in experiments for the first discharge, which reveals that sulfur follows multiple reduction pathways based on its interaction with the carbon backbone. Sulfur reduction takes place above 1.0 V vs Li/Li + mostly in the SPAN-like material, with no long-chain lithium polysulfide formation. Below 1.0 V vs Li/Li + , the backbone’s electrochemical activity occurs via multiple C–Li and N–Li interactions, mostly with edge carbon atoms and pyridinic nitrogen. Moreover, we identify Li + binding sites throughout the graphitized backbone that might lead to prohibited energy costs for Li + deintercalation, which may explain the irreversible capacity loss between the first and second discharges. This work improves understanding of lithiation mechanisms in sulfurized carbon, which is useful for rationally designing SPAN synthesis pathways tailored to increase sulfur loading and enhanced electrochemical performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Sediment transport and morphodynamic changes due to upstream variation and sea level rise on the Western Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The hydrological and morphological dynamics across the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) coastline are increasingly shaped by human interventions and climate change, affecting the sustainability of socio-economic environments. This study employs the TELEMAC-MASCARET modeling system (TELEMAC-2D, TOMAWAC, and SISYPHE modules) to simulate hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological changes for a 10-year period under baseline (SC1) and future climate (SC2) scenarios, considering wave climatology of Northeast (NEM) and Southwest monsoons (SWM). The results of sedimentation and erosion were analyzed across five key coastal zones from Ca Mau Cape (KV1) to Ha Tien (KV5). Model results highlight distinct seasonal patterns of sediment redistribution shaped by monsoonal flows, wave action, and seabed morphology. During the NEM, sediment deposition is concentrated near estuarine zones, while the SWM favors offshore sediment accumulation due to perpendicular wave actions, and shallow, gently sloping bathymetry that dissipates wave energy. Coastal erosion predominantly occurs at convex shoreline features subjected to stronger coastal currents, particularly in fine-grained sediment areas. Under future sea level rise and land subsidence scenarios, reduced flow velocities lead to lower bottom shear stress, promoting deposition and mitigating erosion problems despite increased wave energy. Besides that, sediment transport analyses across 14 cross-sections (C-S) reveal a southward trend during the NEM and a northward reversal during the SWM, with upstream sediment reductions primarily influencing near-estuarine zones and exerting minimal impact beyond the mid-coastal regions. Furthermore, these findings advance the understanding of sediment redistribution processes under climate change and seasonal change, and provide a scientific basis for adaptive coastal management and sustainable development.

Climate change↗

Analysis of Two-Phase Flow in Damper Seals for Cryogenic Turbopumps

Cryogenic damper seals operating close to the liquid-vapor region (near the critical point or slightly su-cooled) are likely to present two-phase flow conditions. Under single phase flow conditions the mechanical energy conveyed to the fluid increases its temperature and causes a phase change when the fluid temperature reaches the saturation value. A bulk-flow analysis for the prediction of the dynamic force response of damper seals operating under two-phase conditions is presented as: all-liquid, liquid-vapor, and all-vapor, i.e. a 'continuous vaporization' model. The two phase region is considered as a homogeneous saturated mixture in thermodynamic equilibrium. Th flow in each region is described by continuity, momentum and energy transport equations. The interdependency of fluid temperatures and pressure in the two-phase region (saturated mixture) does not allow the use of an energy equation in terms of fluid temperature. Instead, the energy transport is expressed in terms of fluid enthalpy. Temperature in the single phase regions, or mixture composition in the two phase region are determined based on the fluid enthalpy. The flow is also regarded as adiabatic since the large axial velocities typical of the seal application determine small levels of heat conduction to the walls as compared to the heat carried by fluid advection. Static and dynamic force characteristics for the seal are obtained from a perturbation analysis of the governing equations. The solution expressed in terms of zeroth and first order fields provide the static (leakage, torque, velocity, pressure, temperature, and mixture composition fields) and dynamic (rotordynamic force coefficients) seal parameters. Theoretical predictions show good agreement with experimental leakage pressure profiles, available from a Nitrogen at cryogenic temperatures. Force coefficient predictions for two phase flow conditions show significant fluid compressibility effects, particularly for mixtures with low mass content of vapor. Under these conditions, an increase on direct stiffness and reduction of whirl frequency ratio are shown to occur. Prediction of such important effects will motivate experimental studies as well as a more judicious selection of the operating conditions for seals used in cryogenic turbomachinery.

Arauz, Grigory L.↗

Zoledronate Prevents Simulated Weightlessness-Induced Bone Loss in the Cancellous Compartment While Blunting the Efficacy of a Mechanical Loading Countermeasure

Astronauts using high-force resistance training while weightless show a high-turnover remodeling state within the skeletal system, with resorption and formation biomarkers being elevated. One countermeasure for the skeletal health of astronauts includes an antiresorptive of the bisphosphonate (BP) drug class. We asked, does the combination of an anti-resorptive and high-force exercise during weightlessness have negative effects on bone remodeling and strength? In this study, we developed an integrated model to mimic the mechanical strain of exercise via cyclical loading (CL) in mice treated with the BP Zoledronate (ZOL) combined with hind limb unloading (HU) to simulate weightlessness. We hypothesized that ZOL prevents structural degradation from simulated weightlessness and that CL and ZOL interact to render CL less effective. Thirty-two C57BL/6 mice (male, 16 weeks old, n=8/group) were exposed to 3 weeks of either HU or normal ambulation (NA). Cohorts of mice received one subcutaneous injection of ZOL (45μg/kg), or saline vehicle (VEH), prior to the start of HU. The right tibia was axially compressed in vivo 60x/day to 9N (+1200μstrain on the periosteal surface) and repeated 3x/week during HU. Left tibiae served as a within subject, non-compressed control. Ex vivo μCT was performed on all subjects to determine cancellous and cortical architectural parameters. Static and dynamic histomorphometry were carried out for the left and right tibiae to determine osteoclast- and osteoblast relevant surfaces. Further, micro damage was assessed in select groups by basic-fuchsin staining to test whether CL had an effect. For all assays, a multivariate (2x2x2) ANCOVA model was used to account for body weight changes. Additionally, for the tibiae, we incorporated a random effect for the subject (hence, a mixed model) to account for observations of both left and right tibiae within each subject. P < 0.05 was considered significant. In the cancellous compartment of the proximal tibial metaphysis, we observed a main effect from each independent variable, as determined by structural and histomorphometric assays. Specifically, as expected, ZOL showed an increase in the cancellous bone volume to total volume fraction (BV/TV, +32%) and trabecular number (+18%) compared to the VEH. As expected, ZOL decreased osteoclast surface (OC/BS) by -45% compared to VEH. Surprisingly, ZOL reduced mineralizing surface (MS/BS) and bone formation rate (BFR), indicators of osteoblast activity, by -40% and -54%, respectively, compared to VEH. Altogether, ZOL-treated mice displayed a low turnover state of remodeling in the metaphysis. In the context of skeletal aging, we speculate that ZOL prevented age-related cancellous strut loss during the experiment. As a main effect, as expected, HU decreased BV/TV by - 31% via reductions in both trabecular thickness (-11%) and number (-22%) compared to NA controls. Additionally, HU decreased MS/BS by -38% and bone formation rate (BFR) by -50% compared to NA controls. Altogether, these data are consistent with structural degradation resulting from imbalanced remodeling that favors resorption. As a main effect, CL increased BV/TV by +15% via increased trabecular thickness (+12%) compared to the noncompressed limb. As expected, CL increased MS/BS (+20%) and BFR (+24%), indicating osteoblast mineralization contributed to bone gains. These data show that CL provided an anabolic stimulus to the cancellous tissue. We observed unique interactions in ZOL*CL and HU*CL. First, ZOL prevented CL-induced increases in BV/TV and trabecular number, as compared to VEH. In the context of skeletal aging, these data suggest no added benefit from CL in the ZOL-treated mice. Interestingly, no microdamage was observed in mice that were unloaded and treated with ZOL (independent of CL). Secondly, HU prevented CL-induced increases in BFR, as compared to NA controls. These data suggest that either exercise is less effective or the kinetics of formation are slower during simulated weightlessness. Osteoclast surface was unchanged by either treatment. Thus, in contrast to exercising astronauts, these data do not suggest a high-turnover state in the metaphysis. To assess mechanical properties as a function of HU or ZOL, we tested the left femur in three-point bending ex vivo. As expected, HU decreased stiffness (-30%) compared to NA, and ZOL increased stiffness compared to VEH (+28%). Interestingly, HU increased the post-yield displacement, related to collagenous tensile loading, compared to NA (+20%). ZOL increased yield force (+11%) and ultimate force (+17%), which seems to explain the significant effect of ZOL increasing total energy (work-to-fracture, +15%), while not affecting the post yield displacement. Taken together, ZOL did not have detrimental affect on mechanical properties. Our integrated model simulates the combination of weightlessness, exercise-induced mechanical strain, and anti-resorptive treatment that astronauts experience during space missions. We conclude that Zoledronate was an effective countermeasure against weightlessness-induced bone loss, though zoledronate, as well as weightlessness, rendered exercise-related mechanical loading less effective.

bone↗

Landing Characteristics of a Lenticular-Shaped Reentry Vehicle

An experimental investigation was made of the landing characteristics of a 1/9-scale dynamic model of a lenticular-shaped reentry vehicle having extendible tail panels for control after reentry and for landing control (flare-out). The landing tests were made by catapulting a free model onto a hard-surface runway and onto water. A "belly-landing" technique in which the vehicle was caused to skid and rock on its curved undersurface (heat shield), converting sinking speed into angular energy, was investigated on a hard-surface runway. Landings were made in calm water and in waves both with and without auxiliary landing devices. Landing motions and acceleration data were obtained over a range of landing attitudes and initial sinking speeds during hard-surface landings and for several wave conditions during water landings. A few vertical landings (parachute letdown) were made in calm water. The hard-surface landing characteristics were good. Maximum landing accelerations on a hard surface were 5g and 18 radians per sq second over a range of landing conditions. Horizontal landings on water resulted in large violent rebounds and some diving in waves. Extreme attitude changes during rebound at initial impact made the attitude of subsequent impact random. Maximum accelerations for water landings were approximately 21g and 145 radians per sq second in waves 7 feet high. Various auxiliary water-landing devices produced no practical improvement in behavior. Reduction of horizontal speed and positive control of impact attitude did improve performance in calm water. During vertical landings in calm water maximum accelerations of 15g and 110 radians per sq second were measured for a contact attitude of -45 deg and a vertical velocity of 70 feet per second.

Blanchard, Ulysse J.↗

Incorporation of Plasticity and Damage Into an Orthotropic Three-Dimensional Model with Tabulated Input Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

The need for accurate material models to simulate the deformation, damage and failure of polymer matrix composites under impact conditions is becoming critical as these materials are gaining increased usage in the aerospace and automotive industries. While there are several composite material models currently available within commercial transient dynamic finite element codes, several features have been identified as being lacking in the currently available material models that could substantially enhance the predictive capability of the impact simulations. A specific desired feature pertains to the incorporation of both plasticity and damage within the material model. Another desired feature relates to using experimentally based tabulated stress-strain input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to specifying discrete input properties (such as modulus and strength) and employing analytical functions to track the response of the material. To begin to address these needs, a combined plasticity and damage model suitable for use with both solid and shell elements is being developed for implementation within the commercial code LS-DYNA. The plasticity model is based on extending the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a strain-hardening based orthotropic plasticity model with a non-associative flow rule. The evolution of the yield surface is determined based on tabulated stress-strain curves in the various normal and shear directions and is tracked using the effective plastic strain. The effective plastic strain is computed by using the non-associative flow rule in combination with appropriate numerical methods. To compute the evolution of damage, a strain equivalent semi-coupled formulation is used, in which a load in one direction results in a stiffness reduction in multiple coordinate directions. A specific laminated composite is examined to demonstrate the process of characterizing and analyzing the response of a composite using the developed model.

Impact↗

Incorporation of Plasticity and Damage Into an Orthotropic Three-Dimensional Model with Tabulated Input Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

The need for accurate material models to simulate the deformation, damage and failure of polymer matrix composites under impact conditions is becoming critical as these materials are gaining increased usage in the aerospace and automotive industries. While there are several composite material models currently available within commercial transient dynamic finite element codes, several features have been identified as being lacking in the currently available material models that could substantially enhance the predictive capability of the impact simulations. A specific desired feature pertains to the incorporation of both plasticity and damage within the material model. Another desired feature relates to using experimentally based tabulated stress-strain input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to specifying discrete input properties (such as modulus and strength) and employing analytical functions to track the response of the material. To begin to address these needs, a combined plasticity and damage model suitable for use with both solid and shell elements is being developed for implementation within the commercial code LS-DYNA. The plasticity model is based on extending the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a strain-hardening based orthotropic plasticity model with a non-associative flow rule. The evolution of the yield surface is determined based on tabulated stress-strain curves in the various normal and shear directions and is tracked using the effective plastic strain. The effective plastic strain is computed by using the non-associative flow rule in combination with appropriate numerical methods. To compute the evolution of damage, a strain equivalent semi-coupled formulation is used, in which a load in one direction results in a stiffness reduction in multiple coordinate directions. A specific laminated composite is examined to demonstrate the process of characterizing and analyzing the response of a composite using the developed model.

Impact↗

Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0

Abstract. Fire is a fundamental part of the Earth system, with impacts on vegetation structure, biomass, and community composition, the latter mediated in part via key fire-tolerance traits, such as bark thickness. Due to anthropogenic climate change and land use pressure, fire regimes are changing across the world, and fire risk has already increased across much of the tropics. Projecting the impacts of these changes at global scales requires that we capture the selective force of fire on vegetation distribution through vegetation functional traits and size structure. We have adapted the fire behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE), for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based on crown, leaf, and bark characteristics, which are key observed fire-tolerance traits across woody plants. For these simulations, three types of vegetation compete for resources: a fire-vulnerable tree with thin bark, a vulnerable deep crown, and fire-intolerant foliage; a fire-tolerant tree with thick bark, a thin crown, and fire-tolerant foliage; and a fire-promoting C4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees, and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire-burned area and its effects, which could feed back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m−1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m−1. The results support a positive grass–fire feedback across the region and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of semiempirical atmospheric density models for orbit determination applications

This paper presents the results of an investigation of the orbit determination performance of the Jacchia-Roberts (JR), mass spectrometer incoherent scatter 1986 (MSIS-86), and drag temperature model (DTM) atmospheric density models. Evaluation of the models was performed to assess the modeling of the total atmospheric density. This study was made generic by using six spacecraft and selecting time periods of study representative of all portions of the 11-year cycle. Performance of the models was measured for multiple spacecraft, representing a selection of orbit geometries from near-equatorial to polar inclinations and altitudes from 400 kilometers to 900 kilometers. The orbit geometries represent typical low earth-orbiting spacecraft supported by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The best available modeling and orbit determination techniques using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) were employed to minimize the effects of modeling errors. The latest geopotential model available during the analysis, the Goddard earth model-T3 (GEM-T3), was employed to minimize geopotential model error effects on the drag estimation. Improved-accuracy techniques identified for TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination analysis were used to improve the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-based orbit determination used for most of the spacecraft chosen for this analysis. This paper shows that during periods of relatively quiet solar flux and geomagnetic activity near the solar minimum, the choice of atmospheric density model used for orbit determination is relatively inconsequential. During typical solar flux conditions near the solar maximum, the differences between the JR, DTM, and MSIS-86 models begin to become apparent. Time periods of extreme solar activity, those in which the daily and 81-day mean solar flux are high and change rapidly, result in significant differences between the models. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, the standard JR model was outperformed by DTM. Modification of the JR model to use a geomagnetic heating delay of 3 hours, as used in DTM, instead of the 6.7-hour delay produced results comparable to or better than the DTM performance, reducing definitive orbit solution ephermeris overlap differences by 30 to 50 percent. The reduction in the overlap differences would be useful for mitigating the impact of geomagnetic storms on orbit prediction.

Cox, C. M.↗

Optimal Operation and Impact Assessment of Distributed Wind for Improving Efficiency and Resilience of Rural Electricity Systems

This project aims to empower rural utilities by developing advanced optimization models and algorithms for effectively integrating distributed wind energy alongside battery storage and other distributed energy resources (DERs). The primary objectives are to reduce peak demand, ensure reliable emergency power supply, and regulate voltage and frequency. To address operational challenges, the project introduces innovative mitigation strategies and ultrafast assessment frameworks to evaluate the impacts of distributed wind and DERs on rural grids, offering actionable solutions to potential issues. Economic viability is assessed through cost-benefit analysis using real rural utility data, ensuring the practical application of the project outcomes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Three Decades of Precision Orbit Determination Progress, Achievements, Future Challenges and its Vital Contribution to Oceanography and Climate Research

Although satellite altimetry has been around for thirty years, the last fifteen beginning with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) have yielded an abundance of significant results including: monitoring of ENS0 events, detection of internal tides, determination of accurate global tides, unambiguous delineation of Rossby waves and their propagation characteristics, accurate determination of geostrophic currents, and a multi-decadal time series of mean sea level trend and dynamic ocean topography variability. While the high level of accuracy being achieved is a result of both instrument maturity and the quality of models and correction algorithms applied to the data, improving the quality of the Climate Data Records produced from altimetry is highly dependent on concurrent progress being made in fields such as orbit determination. The precision orbits form the reference frame from which the radar altimeter observations are made. Therefore, the accuracy of the altimetric mapping is limited to a great extent by the accuracy to which a satellite orbit can be computed. The TP mission represents the first time that the radial component of an altimeter orbit was routinely computed with an accuracy of 2-cm. Recently it has been demonstrated that it is possible to compute the radial component of Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm. Additionally, still further improvements in TP orbits are being achieved with new techniques and algorithms largely developed from combined Jason and TP data analysis. While these recent POD achievements are impressive, the new accuracies are now revealing subtle systematic orbit error that manifest as both intra and inter annual ocean topography errors. Additionally the construction of inter-decadal time series of climate data records requires the removal of systematic differences across multiple missions. Current and future efforts must focus on the understanding and reduction of these errors in order to generate a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits across multiple missions and decades required for the most stringent climate-related research. This presentation discusses the POD progress and achievements made over nearly three decades, and presents the future challenges, goals and their impact on altimetric derived ocean sciences.

Luthcke, Scott↗

Evaluation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height From Wind Profiling Radar and Slab Models and Its Responses to Seasonality of Land Cover, Subsidence, and Advection

In this study, we evaluated the effect of land cover, atmospheric subsidence, and advection on the annual dynamics of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height from two contrasting sites. The first site is the Walker Branch forest, a deciduous forest of temperate climate, complex topography, and cloudy summers. The second site is the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a site of Mediterranean climate, flat terrain on a local scale, and clear summers. After testing a new algorithm to calculate ABL heights from 915 MHz radar wind profilers, we evaluated a hierarchy of three slab models to recreate the diurnal and annual patterns of ABL growth. We found that the lower ABL heights in the Delta, particularly during late summer, are driven by the combined effects of increased atmospheric subsidence and marine air advection. In both sites, the annual pattern of ABL height was strongly correlated to total daily incoming radiation, and in the Delta, the annual pattern of ABL height closely followed the seasonal patterns of sensible heat flux from a mosaic of different land covers. A land composite of latent and sensible heat fluxes obtained through a meso-network of eddy covariance measurements and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission resulted in higher model skill, thus showing that land cover heterogeneity is an important driver of ABL growth. To conclude, model simulations show that in the Delta, restoring agricultural land to wetlands with large open water areas could result in a reduction of ABL height during those months with low subsidence and advection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗