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At least 1,495 records · Page 83
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Electric Field and Plasma Density Observations of Irregularities and Plasma Instabilities in the Low Latitude Ionosphere Gathered by the C/NOFS Satellite

The Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the C/NOFS equatorial satellite provides a unique data set which includes detailed measurements of irregularities associated with the equatorial ionosphere and in particular with spread-F depletions. We present vector AC electric field observations gathered on C/NOFS that address a variety of key questions regarding how plasma irregularities, from meter to kilometer scales, are created and evolve. The talk focuses on occasions where the ionosphere F-peak has been elevated above the C/NOFS satellite perigee of 400 km as solar activity has increased. In particular, during the equinox periods of 2011, the satellite consistently journeyed below the F-peak whenever the orbit was in the region of the South Atlantic anomaly after sunset. During these passes, data from the electric field and plasma density probes on the satellite have revealed two types of instabilities which had not previously been observed in the C/NOFS data set: The first is evidence for 400-500km-scale bottomside "undulations" that appear in the density and electric field data. In one case, these large scale waves are associated with a strong shear in the zonal E x B flow, as evidenced by variations in the meridional (outward) electric fields observed above and below the F-peak. These undulations are devoid of smaller scale structures in the early evening, yet appear at later local times along the same orbit associated with fully-developed spread-F with smaller scale structures. This suggests that they may be precursor waves for spread-F, driven by a collisional shear instability, following ideas advanced previously by researchers using data from the Jicamarca radar. A second result is the appearance of km-scale irregularities that are a common feature in the electric field and plasma density data that also appear when the satellite is near or below the F-peak at night. The vector electric field instrument on C/NOFS clearly shows that the electric field component of these waves is strongest in the zonal direction. These waves are strongly correlated with simultaneous observations of plasma density oscillations and appear both with, and without, evidence of larger-scale spread-F depletions. These km-scale, quasi-coherent waves strongly resemble the bottomside, sinusoidal irregularities reported in the Atmosphere Explorer satellite data set by Valladares et al. and are believed to cause scintillations of VHF radiowaves. We interpret these new observations in terms of fundamental plasma instabilities associated with the unstable, nighttime equatorial ionosphere.

Pfaff, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Enhancements and Evolution of the Real Time Mission Monitor

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM has proven extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, mission scientists, instrument scientists and program managers alike appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. We have received numerous plaudits from a wide variety of scientists who used RTMM during recent field campaigns including the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) missions, the 2007-2008 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane flights and the 2008 Soil Moisture Active-Passive Validation Experiment (SMAP-VEX). Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated for altitude, latitude, longitude, flight leg distance, cumulative distance, flight leg time, cumulative time, and satellite overpass intersections. The resultant flight plan is then generated in KML and quickly posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and then compare it to the actual real time flight progress. A description of the system architecture, components, and applications along with reviews and animations of RTMM during the field campaigns, plus planned enhancements and future opportunities will be presented.

Goodman, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2009

Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM is extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, scientists, and managers appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. A broad spectrum of interdisciplinary scientists used RTMM during field campaigns including the hurricane-focused 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane Noel flight, 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), plus a soil moisture (SMAP-VEX) and two arctic research experiments (ARCTAS) in 2008. Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated "on the fly". The resultant flight plan is then immediately posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and subsequently compare it to the actual real time flight progress. We are planning additional capabilities to RTMM including collaborations with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

Goodman, H. Michael↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of the Quality of the Version 1.07 Temperature-Versus-Pressure Profiles of the Middle Atmosphere from TIMED/SABER

The quality of the retrieved temperature-versus-pressure (or T(p)) profiles is described for the middle atmosphere for the publicly available Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) Version 1.07 (V1.07) data set. The primary sources of systematic error for the SABER results below about 70 km are (1) errors in the measured radiances, (2) biases in the forward model, and (3) uncertainties in the corrections for ozone and in the determination of the reference pressure for the retrieved profiles. Comparisons with other correlative data sets indicate that SABER T(p) is too high by 1-3 K in the lower stratosphere but then too low by 1 K near the stratopause and by 2 K in the middle mesosphere. There is little difference between the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) algorithm results below about 70 km from V1.07 and V1.06, but there are substantial improvements/differences for the non-LTE results of V1.07 for the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) region. In particular, the V1.07 algorithm uses monthly, diurnally averaged CO2 profiles versus latitude from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. This change has improved the consistency of the character of the tides in its kinetic temperature (T(sub k)). The T(sub k) profiles agree with UMLT values obtained from ground-based measurements of column-averaged OH and O2 emissions and of the Na lidar returns, at least within their mutual uncertainties. SABER T(sub k) values obtained near the mesopause with its daytime algorithm also agree well with the falling sphere climatology at high northern latitudes in summer. It is concluded that the SABER data set can be the basis for improved, diurnal-to-interannual-scale temperatures for the middle atmosphere and especially for its UMLT region.

Remsberg, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Surveillance system and method having parameter estimation and operating mode partitioning

A system and method for monitoring an apparatus or process asset including creating a process model comprised of a plurality of process submodels each correlative to at least one training data subset partitioned from an unpartitioned training data set and each having an operating mode associated thereto; acquiring a set of observed signal data values from the asset; determining an operating mode of the asset for the set of observed signal data values; selecting a process submodel from the process model as a function of the determined operating mode of the asset; calculating a set of estimated signal data values from the selected process submodel for the determined operating mode; and determining asset status as a function of the calculated set of estimated signal data values for providing asset surveillance and/or control.

Bickford, Randall L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

On negative induced polarization in frequency domain measurements

SUMMARY Induced polarization (IP) has been widely used to non-invasively characterize electrical conduction and polarization in the subsurface resulting from an applied electric field. Earth materials exhibit a lossy capacitance defined by a negative intrinsic phase in frequency-domain IP (FDIP) or a positive intrinsic chargeability in time-domain IP (TDIP). However, error-free positive apparent phase or negative apparent chargeability (i.e. negative IP effects) can occur in IP measurements over heterogeneous media. While negative IP effects in TDIP data sets have been discussed, no studies have addressed this topic in detail for FDIP measurements. We describe theory and numerical modelling to explain the origin of negative IP effects in FDIP measurements. A positive apparent phase may occur when a relatively high polarizability feature falls into negative sensitivity zones of complex resistivity measurements. The polarity of the apparent phase is determined by the distribution of subsurface intrinsic phase and resistivity, with the resistivity impacting the apparent phase polarity via its control on the sensitivity distribution. A physical explanation for the occurrence of positive apparent phase data is provided by an electric circuit model representing a four-electrode measurement. We also show that the apparent phase polarity will be frequency dependent when resistivity changes significantly with frequency (i.e. in the presence of significant IP effects). Consequently, negative IP effects manifest themselves in the shape of apparent phase spectra recorded with multifrequency (spectral IP) data sets. Our results imply that positive apparent phase measurements should be anticipated and should be retained during inversion and interpretation of single frequency and spectral IP data sets.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of quasimetagenomics methods to define microbial diversity and subtype Listeria monocytogenes in dairy and seafood production facilities

Microorganisms frequently colonize surfaces within food production facilities. Detection of Listeria monocytogenes in this setting relies on culture-dependent methods, but the complex dynamics of bacterial interactions within these environments and their impact on pathogen detection remain largely unexplored. To address this challenge, we applied both 16S rRNA and shotgun quasimetagenomic (enriched microbiome) sequencing of swab culture enrichments from five seafood and seven dairy production environments. Utilizing 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, we observed variability between 355 samples taken from these 12 production facilities and a distinctive microbiome for each environment. With shotgun quasimetagenomic sequencing, we were able to assemble L. monocytogenes metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from 28 of the 32 culture-positive samples. We compared these MAGs to their corresponding whole-genome sequencing assemblies, which resulted in two polyphyletic clades consisting of L. monocytogenes lineages I and II with 13,195 and 25,556 single-nucleotide polymorphism sites, respectively. The remaining four MAGs did not produce sufficient genome coverage. To understand and establish limits for pathogen detection and subtyping using shotgun quasimetagenomics, these same data sets were downsampled in slilico to produce a titration series of abundances of L. monocytogenes and analyzed. Pathogen detection was achieved for all downsampled data sets, even those with only 3× genome coverage. This study contributes to the understanding of microbial diversity within food production environments and presents insights into the level of genome coverage needed in a metagenome sequencing data set to detect, subtype, and source track a foodborne pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Multi-Band Analytical Algorithm for Deriving Absorption and Backscattering Coefficients from Remote-Sensing Reflectance of Optically Deep Waters

A multi-band analytical (MBA) algorithm is developed to retrieve absorption and backscattering coefficients for optically deep waters, which can be applied to data from past and current satellite sensors, as well as data from hyperspectral sensors. This MBA algorithm applies a remote-sensing reflectance model derived from the Radiative Transfer Equation, and values of absorption and backscattering coefficients are analytically calculated from values of remote-sensing reflectance. There are only limited empirical relationships involved in the algorithm, which implies that this MBA algorithm could be applied to a wide dynamic range of waters. Applying the algorithm to a simulated non-"Case 1" data set, which has no relation to the development of the algorithm, the percentage error for the total absorption coefficient at 440 nm a (sub 440) is approximately 12% for a range of 0.012 - 2.1 per meter (approximately 6% for a (sub 440) less than approximately 0.3 per meter), while a traditional band-ratio approach returns a percentage error of approximately 30%. Applying it to a field data set ranging from 0.025 to 2.0 per meter, the result for a (sub 440) is very close to that using a full spectrum optimization technique (9.6% difference). Compared to the optimization approach, the MBA algorithm cuts the computation time dramatically with only a small sacrifice in accuracy, making it suitable for processing large data sets such as satellite images. Significant improvements over empirical algorithms have also been achieved in retrieving the optical properties of optically deep waters.

Lee, Zhong-Ping↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simulating Remote Sensing Systems

The Application Research Toolbox (ART) is a collection of computer programs that implement algorithms and mathematical models for simulating remote sensing systems. The ART is intended to be especially useful for performing design-tradeoff studies and statistical analyses to support the rational development of design requirements for multispectral imaging systems. Among other things, the ART affords a capability to synthesize coarser-spatial-resolution image-data products. The ART also provides for simulations of image-degradation effects, including point-spread functions, misregistration of spectral images, and noise. The ART can utilize real or synthetic data sets, along with sensor specifications, to create simulated data sets. In one example of a particular application, simulated imagery of a coarse resolution system was created using high-resolution imagery from another system in order to perform a radiometric cross-comparison. In the case of a proposed sensor system, the simulated data can be used to conduct trade studies and statistical analyses to ensure that the sensor system will satisfy the requirements of potential scientific, academic, and commercial user communities.

Zanoni, Vicki↗
DOE OSTI2021

ParChain: a framework for parallel hierarchical agglomerative clustering using nearest-neighbor chain

This paper studies the hierarchical clustering problem, where the goal is to produce a dendrogram that represents clusters at varying scales of a data set. We propose the ParChain framework for designing parallel hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) algorithms, and using the framework we obtain novel parallel algorithms for the complete linkage, average linkage, and Ward's linkage criteria. Compared to most previous parallel HAC algorithms, which require quadratic memory, our new algorithms require only linear memory, and are scalable to large data sets. ParChain is based on our parallelization of the nearest-neighbor chain algorithm, and enables multiple clusters to be merged on every round. We introduce two key optimizations that are critical for efficiency: a range query optimization that reduces the number of distance computations required when finding nearest neighbors of clusters, and a caching optimization that stores a subset of previously computed distances, which are likely to be reused. Experimentally, we show that our highly-optimized implementations using 48 cores with two-way hyper-threading achieve 5.8--110.1x speedup over state-of-the-art parallel HAC algorithms and achieve 13.75--54.23x self-relative speedup. Compared to state-of-the-art algorithms, our algorithms require up to 237.3x less space. Our algorithms are able to scale to data set sizes with tens of millions of points, which existing algorithms are not able to handle.

Computer Science↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

QuantifyML: How good is my machine learning model?

This paper presents an approach, QuantifyML, which employs model counting to assess the learnability and robustness of machine learning models. Typically the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test data sets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. Further, two different models may have the same accuracy on a given data set, measured statistically, but may be very different in their behavior on unseen data. Also, models with high accuracy could have poor adversarial robustness. In QuantifyML, our goal is to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into a C program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise counts w.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, expressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the robustness of trained models around given inputs. Our evaluation demonstrates these applications of QuantifyML on decision trees and neural networks trained to learn relational properties of graphs, for which we know the ground truth, and to perform image classification, for which we do not have the ground truth, but we can quantify local robustness.

Deep Neural Networks↗
DOE OSTI2020

Novel Technique for Developing Linearized Convex System Models from Experimentally Derived Data

This paper presents a novel technique for generating a convex system model from an experimentally derived data set which features variance among repeated measurements. The convex system model developed as a test case characterizes the dynamic system losses of a vanadium redox flow battery as a function of the active power output and the battery state of charge. The technique hinges on a pre-cleaning via clustering procedure which precedes the formation of a planar convex hull comprised of triangular simplices. The clustering procedure efficiently reduces the experimental data set while mitigating variance among repeated measurements and removes outliers. Ultimately, the lower evelope of the planar convex hull serves as the desired convex system model. The proposed technique reduces systematic model error which is otherwise present when directly developing a planar convex hull model based on an unreduced data set.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1984

The distribution of hot spots

Statistical analyses are compared for two published hot spot data sets, one minimal set of 42 and another larger set of 117, using three different approaches. First, the earths surface is divided into 16 equal-area fractions and the observed distribution of hot spots among them is analyzed using chi-square tests. Second, cumulative distributions about the principal axes of the hot spot inertia tensor are used to describe hot spot distribution. Finally, a hot spot density function is constructed for each of the two hot spot data sets. The methods all indicate that hot spots have a nonuniform distribution, even when statistical fluctuations are considered. To the first order, hot spots are concentrated on one half of of the earth's surface area; within that portion, the distribution is consistent with a uniform distribution. The observed hot spot densities for neither data set are explained solely by plate speed.

Stefanick, M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Wavelet and Fractal Analysis of Remotely Sensed Surface Temperature with Applications to Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux Density

Wavelet and fractal analyses have been used successfully to analyze one-dimensional data sets such as time series of financial, physical, and biological parameters. These techniques have been applied to two-dimensional problems in some instances, including the analysis of remote sensing imagery. In this respect, these techniques have not been widely used by the remote sensing community, and their overall capabilities as analytical tools for use on satellite and aircraft data sets is not well known. Wavelet and fractal analyses have the potential to provide fresh insight into the characterization of surface properties such as temperature and emissivity distributions, and surface processes such as the heat and water vapor exchange between the surface and the lower atmosphere. In particular, the variation of sensible heat flux density as a function of the change In scale of surface properties Is difficult to estimate, but - in general - wavelets and fractals have proved useful in determining the way a parameter varies with changes in scale. We present the results of a limited study on the relationship between spatial variations in surface temperature distribution and sensible heat flux distribution as determined by separate wavelet and fractal analyses. We analyzed aircraft imagery obtained in the thermal infrared (IR) bands from the multispectral TIMS and hyperspectral MASTER airborne sensors. The thermal IR data allows us to estimate the surface kinetic temperature distribution for a number of sites in the Midwestern and Southwestern United States (viz., San Pedro River Basin, Arizona; El Reno, Oklahoma; Jornada, New Mexico). The ground spatial resolution of the aircraft data varied from 5 to 15 meters. All sites were instrumented with meteorological and hydrological equipment including surface layer flux measuring stations such as Bowen Ratio systems and sonic anemometers. The ground and aircraft data sets provided the inputs for the wavelet and fractal analyses, and the validation of the results.

Schieldge, John↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coupling High-Throughput Experiments and Regression Algorithms to Optimize PGM-Free ORR Electrocatalyst Synthesis

Over the past decades, significant improvement has been achieved in the performance of platinum group metal-free (PGM-free) materials as an alternative to Pt-based electrocatalysts for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR). However, further progress in ORR activity requires evaluation of precursors and synthesis approaches. In response to this challenge, we generated a first of its kind experimental data set of 36 samples using high-throughput synthesis and activity measurements. Several control parameters (e.g., Fe precursor identity, the precursor content, and pyrolysis temperature) were varied. We then developed several state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) based regression models to predict ORR activity, dependent on selected synthesis variables. Through an iterative algorithm, higher prediction accuracy (smaller root-mean-square error) was achieved. We identified that gradient boosting regression (GBR) and support vector regression (SVR), among several methods, work best for this data set. Aided by our ML-based surrogate models, we decided to alter catalyst synthesis conditions, which resulted in a 36% increase in measured ORR activity in comparison to the maximum ORR mass activity value of 21.9 A/g catalyst in the original data set. Overall, this combined experiment and machine learning approach represents a promising path forward toward developing highly efficient next-generation ORR electrocatalysts and, more generally, functional materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2012

Update on Apollo Data Restoration by the NSSDC and the PDS Lunar Data Node

The Lunar Data Node (LDN) , under the auspices of the Geosciences Node of the Planetary Data System (PDS) and the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC), is continuing its efforts to recover and restore Apollo science data. The data being restored are in large part archived with NSSDC on older media, but unarchived data are also being recovered from other sources. They are typically on 7- or 9-track magnetic tapes, often in obsolete formats, or held on microfilm, microfiche, or paper documents. The goal of the LDN is to restore these data from their current form, which is difficult for most researchers to access, into common digital formats with all necessary supporting data (metadata) and archive the data sets with PDS. Restoration involves reading the data from the original media, deciphering the data formats to produce readable digital data and converting the data into usable tabular formats. Each set of values in the table must then be understood in terms of the quantity measured and the units used. Information on instrument properties, operational history, and calibrations is gathered and added to the data set, along with pertinent references, contacts, and other ancillary documentation. The data set then undergoes a peer review and the final validated product is archived with PDS. Although much of this effort has concentrated on data archived at NSSDC in the 1970's, we have also recovered data and information that were never sent to NSSDC. These data, retrieved from various outside sources, include raw and reduced Gamma-Ray Spectrometer data from Apollos 15 and 16, information on the Apollo 17 Lunar Ejecta And Meteorites experiment, Dust Detector data from Apollos 11, 12, 14, and I5, raw telemetry tapes from the Apollo ALSEPs, and Weekly Status Reports for all the Apollo missions. These data are currently being read or organized, and supporting data is being gathered. We are still looking for the calibrated heat flow data from Apollos 15 and 17 for the period 1975-1977, any assistance or information on these data would be welcome. NSSDC has recently been tasked to release its hard-copy archive, comprising photography, microfilm, and microfiche. The details are still being discussed, but we are concentrating on recovering the valuable lunar data from these materials while they are still readily accessible. We have identified the most critical of these data and written a LASER proposal to fund their restoration. Included in this effort are data from the Apollo 15 and 16 Mass Spectrometers and the Apollo 17 Par-UV Spectrometer and ancillary information on the Apollo 17 Surface Electrical Properties Experiment.

Williams, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The tundra phenology database: more than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗