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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic mode decomposition of nonequilibrium electron-phonon dynamics: accelerating the first-principles real-time Boltzmann equation

Abstract Nonequilibrium dynamics governed by electron–phonon ( e -ph) interactions plays a key role in electronic devices and spectroscopies and is central to understanding electronic excitations in materials. The real-time Boltzmann transport equation (rt-BTE) with collision processes computed from first principles can describe the coupled dynamics of electrons and atomic vibrations (phonons). Yet, a bottleneck of these simulations is the calculation of e –ph scattering integrals on dense momentum grids at each time step. Here we show a data-driven approach based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) that can accelerate the time propagation of the rt-BTE and identify dominant electronic processes. We apply this approach to two case studies, high-field charge transport and ultrafast excited electron relaxation. In both cases, simulating only a short time window of ~10% of the dynamics suffices to predict the dynamics from initial excitation to steady state using DMD extrapolation. Analysis of the momentum-space modes extracted from DMD sheds light on the microscopic mechanisms governing electron relaxation to a steady state or equilibrium. The combination of accuracy and efficiency makes our DMD-based method a valuable tool for investigating ultrafast dynamics in a wide range of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Subsurface Biogeochemical Variability in a High Altitude Watershed During Winter Isolation

Shallow subsurface microbial and geochemical processes in watersheds are dynamic and responsive to seasonal and long-term environmental change. At high elevation or latitude, such changes may occur during winter months when normal sampling is impossible, impractical, unsafe, or may actually alter the processes being studied. Yet accurate modeling of biogeochemical parameters in these environments requires sampling that can capture events and persistent cold climate trends. Gaps in current models exist where data have not been collected during extended snow- or ice-covered periods. The goals of our exploratory study were to examine the biogeochemical processes occurring in a well-studied high altitude watershed during winter when the system is largely inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that during snow cover in the East River (ER) watershed, episodic excursions of microbial community structure and biogeochemical processes and concentrations fluctuated from values extrapolated from pre- and post-snow time periods. Through our research we identified previously unresolved subsurface-surface transport phenomena and a heretofore under-appreciated methane cycle occurring during wintertime months, thus providing valuable insight into watershed processes. Our research showed that autonomous sampling techniques, first used in marine systems, is extremely versatile and can be adapted for use in harsh continental settings to examine temporal changes in freshwater chemistry and microbial community assemblage. Further, we found that by sampling during periods when systems are hard to access, will lend insight and better accountability for global budgets for methane, an important greenhouse gas. By strengthening our knowledge of wintertime biogeochemical relationships in high altitude watersheds our research leads to more complete descriptions of cryptic processes and ultimately will inform and improve the reactive transport models that simulate processes in these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Escape Velocity Profile of the Milky Way from Gaia DR3

Abstract The escape velocity profile of the Milky Way offers a crucial and independent measurement of its underlying mass distribution and dark matter (DM) properties. Using a sample of stars from the third data release of Gaia with 6D kinematics and strict quality cuts, we obtain an escape velocity profile of the Milky Way from 4 to 11 kpc in Galactocentric radius. To infer the escape velocity in radial bins, we model the tail of the stellar speed distribution with both traditional power-law models and a new functional form that we introduce. While power-law models tend to rely on extrapolation to high speeds, we find our new functional form gives the most faithful representation of the observed distribution. Using this for the escape velocity profile, we constrain the properties of the Milky Way’s DM halo modeled as a Navarro–Frenck–White profile. Combined with constraints from the circular velocity at the solar position, we obtain a concentration and mass of c 200 c DM = 13.9 − 4.3 + 6.2 and M 200 c DM = 0.55 − 0.14 + 0.15 × 10 12 M ⊙ . This corresponds to a total Milky Way mass of M 200 c = 0.64 − 0.14 + 0.15 × 10 12 M ⊙ , which is on the low end of the historic range of the galaxy’s mass, but in line with other recent estimates.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesh-based super-resolution of fluid flows with multiscale graph neural networks

A graph neural network (GNN) approach is introduced in this work which enables mesh-based three-dimensional super-resolution of fluid flows. In this framework, the GNN is designed to operate not on the full mesh-based field at once, but on localized meshes of elements (or cells) directly. To facilitate mesh-based GNN representations in a manner similar to spectral (or finite) element discretizations, a baseline GNN layer (termed a message passing layer, which updates local node properties) is modified to account for synchronization of coincident graph nodes, rendering compatibility with commonly used element-based mesh connectivities. Furthermore, the architecture is multiscale in nature, and is comprised of a combination of coarse-scale and fine-scale message passing layer sequences (termed processors) separated by a graph unpooling layer. The coarse-scale processor embeds a query element (alongside a set number of neighboring coarse elements) into a single latent graph representation using coarse-scale synchronized message passing over the element neighborhood, and the fine-scale processor leverages additional message passing operations on this latent graph to correct for interpolation errors. Demonstration studies are performed using hexahedral mesh-based data from Taylor–Green Vortex and backward-facing step flow simulations at Reynolds numbers of 1600 and 3200. Through analysis of both global and local errors, the results ultimately show how the GNN is able to produce accurate super-resolved fields compared to targets in both coarse-scale and multiscale model configurations. Reconstruction errors for fixed architectures were found to increase in proportion to the Reynolds number. Geometry extrapolation studies on a separate cavity flow configuration show promising cross-mesh capabilities of the super-resolution strategy.

Backward-facing step↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lattice B -field correlators for heavy quarks

We analyze the color-magnetic (or “ B ”) field two-point function that encodes the finite-mass correction to the heavy-quark momentum-diffusion coefficient. The simulations are done on fine isotropic lattices in the quenched approximation at 1.5 T c , using a range of gradient flow times for noise suppression and operator renormalization. The continuum extrapolation is performed at fixed flow time followed by a second extrapolation to zero flow time. Perturbative calculations to next-to-leading order of this correlation function, matching gradient-flowed correlators to MS ¯ , are used to resolve nontrivial renormalization issues. We perform a spectral reconstruction based on perturbative model fits to estimate the coefficient κ B of the finite-mass correction to the heavy-quark momentum-diffusion coefficient. The approach we present here yields high-precision data for the correlator with all renormalization issues incorporated at next-to-leading order and is also applicable for actions with dynamical fermions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate-invariant machine learning

Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: We extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller than model grid size, which have been the main source of model projection uncertainty. Recent machine learning (ML) algorithms hold promise to improve such process representations but tend to extrapolate poorly to climate regimes that they were not trained on. To get the best of the physical and statistical worlds, we propose a framework, termed “climate-invariant” ML, incorporating knowledge of climate processes into ML algorithms, and show that it can maintain high offline accuracy across a wide range of climate conditions and configurations in three distinct atmospheric models. Our results suggest that explicitly incorporating physical knowledge into data-driven models of Earth system processes can improve their consistency, data efficiency, and generalizability across climate regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Spectroscopy and atomic physics of highly ionized Cr, Fe, and Ni for tokamak plasmas

The paper considers the spectroscopy and atomic physics for some highly ionized Cr, Fe, and Ni ions produced in tokamak plasmas. Forbidden and intersystem wavelengths for Cr and Ni ions are extrapolated and interpolated using the known wavelengths for Fe lines identified in solar-flare plasmas. Tables of transition probabilities for the B I, C I, N I, O I, and F I isoelectronic sequences are presented, and collision strengths and transition probabilities for Cr, Fe, and Ni ions of the Be I sequence are given. Similarities of tokamak and solar spectra are discussed, and it is shown how the atomic data presented may be used to determine ion abundances and electron densities in low-density plasmas.

Feldman, U.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of measured and theoretical predictions for STS ascent and entry sonic booms

Sonic boom measurements have been obtained during the flights of STS-1 through 5. During STS-1, 2, and 4, entry sonic boom measurements were obtained and ascent measurements were made on STS-5. The objectives of this measurement program were (1) to define the sonic boom characteristics of the Space Transportation System (STS), (2) provide a realistic assessment of the validity of xisting theoretical prediction techniques, and (3) establish a level of confidence for predicting future STS configuration sonic boom environments. Detail evaluation and reporting of the results of this program are in progress. This paper will address only the significant results, mainly those data obtained during the entry of STS-1 at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB), and the ascent of STS-5 from Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The theoretical prediction technique employed in this analysis is the so called Thomas Program. This prediction technique is a semi-empirical method that required definition of the near field signatures, detailed trajectory characteristics, and the prevailing meteorological characteristics as an input. This analytical procedure then extrapolates the near field signatures from the flight altitude to an altitude consistent with each measurement location.

Garcia, F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Assimilation of Altimeter Data into a Quasigeostrophic Model of the Gulf Stream System: Assimilation Results - Part 2

The improvement in the climatological behavior of a numerical model as a consequence of the assimilation of surface data is investigated. The model used for this study is a quasigeostrophic (QG) model of the Gulf Stream region. The data that have been assimilated are maps of sea surface height that have been obtained as the superposition of sea surface height variability deduced from the Geosat altimeter measurements and a mean field constructed from historical hydrographic data. The method used for assimilating the data is the nudging technique. Nudging has been implemented in such a way as to achieve a high degree of convergence of the surface model fields toward the observations. Comparisons of the assimilation results with available in situ observations show a significant improvement in the degree of realism of the climatological model behavior, with respect to the model in which no data are assimilated. The remaining discrepancies in the model mean circulation seem to be mainly associated with deficiencies in the mean component of the surface data that are assimilated. On the other hand, the possibility of building into the model more realistic eddy characteristics through the assimilation of the surface eddy field proves very successful in driving components of the mean model circulation that are in relatively good agreement with the available observations. Comparisons with current meter time series during a time period partially overlapping the Geosat mission show that the model is able to 'correctly' extrapolate the instantaneous surface eddy signals to depths of approximately 1500 m. The correlation coefficient between current meter and model time series varies from values close to 0.7 in the top 1500 m to values as low as 0.1-0.2 in the deep ocean.

Capotondi, Antonietta↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure and Superconductivity of Hydrogenated TiZr Alloys Under High Pressure

The effects of pressure on the structure and electrical transport properties, including electrical resistance and critical magnetic field values for superconductivity in pristine and hydrogenated TiZr alloys, were investigated. As pressure increased from ambient to 55 GPa, the structure of the pristine TiZr alloys transformed from hcp to bcc via an intermediate ω phase. The superconducting transition temperature (T c ) significantly increased from 1.76 K at ambient pressure to 15.5 K at 52.2 GPa, accompanied by an extrapolated upper critical field of 24.5 T at T = 0 K. In contrast, the hydrogenated samples exhibited substantially lower T c values compared to the pristine ones, with a T c of 4.6 K at 50.5 GPa and an extrapolated upper critical field of 1.8 T at T = 0 K. Upon decompression, the superconductivity in the hydrogenated sample persisted down to 25 GPa, disappearing when the pressure was reduced to 19 GPa. Synchrotron X-ray diffractions (XRD) analysis revealed the formation of three hydrides: I4/mmm-(Ti, Zr)H 2 , P6 3 /mmc-(Ti, Zr)H 3 , and I4̅3d-(Ti,Zr) 4 H 15 . Finally, by combining XRD and electrical resistance data, we tentatively propose that the P6 3 /mmc-(Ti, Zr)H 3 predominantly induces superconductivity. In contrast to superhydrides, where electron–phonon interactions increase the superconducting temperature at high pressure, hydrogen atoms in hcp-(Ti, Zr)H 3 reduce T c .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection and Perception of Sound by Eagles and Surrogate Raptors

One overarching objective of this program of study was the accumulation of objective, scientifically valid information relating to auditory performance of bald and golden eagles that may be used to guide the development of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies intended to discourage encroachment into wind energy air spaces. To that end, analyses aimed at the characterization of sensitivity to sound in bald and golden eagles, along with findings in the supra-threshold, dynamic frequency spaces related to response latencies and amplitudes, leads us to conclude that bald, and golden eagles navigate the same basic working auditory space, as in other known and thus far characterized members of the diurnal raptor family. Specifically, bald and golden eagles, along with other raptor species within the group, operate in an auditory space characterized by a frequency band at least four octaves wide and centered on 2 kHz, with an upper frequency limit between 6 and 10 kHz at 80 dB SPL and a lower frequency limit that almost certainly extends below 0.2 kHz. Consequently, we recommend that signal designers use these data as a guideline in efforts to design effective and efficient acoustic alerting/deterrent systems. It is important to note that signal energy broadcast outside of this frequency band at moderate levels will not contribute to the efficacy of a deterrent but will add an unnecessary fraction to the overall acoustic pollution budget. The importance of this consideration is heightened by contemporaneous concerns related to the transmission of noise broadcast by wind energy farms. In addition, based on analyses of data acquired from red-tailed hawks using the same experimental paradigm and data acquisition system, we conclude that auditory function in the red-tailed hawk is sufficiently like that observed in bald and golden eagles to permit its use as a surrogate species. Response waveforms, threshold-frequency curves, and input-output characteristics match those of eagles closely. It should be noted however, that differences in sensitivity and slightly extended high-frequency limits of hearing should be taken into account when extrapolating findings from one species to the others. Although the inclusion of behavioral tests of red-tailed hawks to acoustic stimuli was beyond the scope of this investigation, future efforts to assess response parameters like signal-type preference and habituation rate will further elucidate their suitability to serve as eagle surrogates in behavioral studies; nonetheless, the species in question are well matched with respect to basic auditory performance. A second essential objective of this program of study was the acoustic characterization of a subset of calls comprising the vocal repertoires of bald and golden eagles that may be used to supplement auditory performance findings in the effort to guide the development of acoustic alerting signals. With regard to that objective, the vocal repertoires of both bald and golden eagle species are rich and varied. While similar in spectrographic structure, distinctive differences are also clear. Generally, golden eagles produce some calls with shorter durations, and similar “sounding” calls exhibit distinctively different spectrographic patterns than those of bald eagles. Both species produce calls that contain a wide variety of nonlinear elements that operate to enhance the rich and varied nature of commonly observed vocal products. Comparison of the average power spectra of commonly observed bald and golden eagle calls with threshold-frequency curves leads to the conclusion that call energies fall within the frequency bounds of hearing. Further, the acoustic energy of calls considered in this report tend to fall into overlapping, but different frequency ranges of the acoustic sensitivity curve. This condition may encourage signal designers to vary the frequency content of acoustic deterrence signals in the field. Finally, preliminary observations relating to the tendencies and proclivities of bald eagles to attend to the acoustic landscape lead to the conclusion that eagles monitor their immediate sound environment assiduously. Individuals respond to a variety of natural and synthetic sound signals reliably and, perhaps most relevant in the context of the engineering of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies, habituation to most sounds considered in this effort was minimal. These preliminary results, while calling for extended behavioral testing, are promising and set the stage for the exportation of behavioral studies into real world scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

The parsec-scale jets in 3C 273 and 3C 345

We present recent centimeter-wavelength 'global-array' VLBI images of the quasars 3C 273 and 3C 345 with dynamic ranges in excess of 3000:1. They trace the jet emission on scales from r about 5 parsecs out to about 200 parsecs. The maps of 3C273 at 18 cm wavelength show a well-collimated one-sided jet with a wavy ridge line; these wiggles exist on size scales ranging from about 1 pc to over 10 kpc. We show that the well-known superluminal flow extends to r about 120 pc. Images of 3C 345 at 6 cm wavelength from data taken in 1989 and 1990 show surprising features not seen in lower dynamic-range maps of this otherwise well-studied quasar: the inner part of the jet shows edge-brightening, which is important for modeling of jet confinement. The jet fades out very abruptly at r about 40 pc, then reappears at about 70 pc; beyond 70 pc, the resumed jet flares and is more diffuse than an extrapolation of the inner jet would predict. This morphology is reminiscent of M 87, and is suggestive of a shock wave.

Unwin, Stephen C.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Cirrus Cloud Top-of-the-Atmosphere Net Daytime Forcing in the Alaskan Subarctic from Ground-Based MPLNET Monitoring

Cirrus cloud daytime top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing (TOA CRF) is estimated for a two-year NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (532 nm; MPLNET) dataset collected at Fairbanks, Alaska. Two-year averaged daytime TOA CRF is estimated at between -1.08 and 0.78 W·m-2 (-0.49 to 1.10 W·m-2 in 2017, and -1.67 to 0.47 W·m-2 in 2018). This subarctic study completes a now trilogy of MPLNET ground-based cloud forcing investigations, following midlatitude and tropical studies by Campbell et al. (2016; C16) at Greenbelt, Maryland and Lolli et al. (2017) at Singapore. C16 hypothesize a global meridional daytime TOA CRF gradient that begins positive at the equator (2.20 – 2.59 W·m-2 over land and -0.46 – 0.42 W·m-2 over ocean at Singapore), becomes neutral in the midlatitudes (0.03 – 0.27 W·m-2 over land in Maryland) and turns negative moving poleward. This study does not completely confirm C16, as values are not found as exclusively negative. Evidence in historical reanalysis data suggests that daytime cirrus forcing in and around the subarctic likely once was exclusively negative. Increasing tropopause heights, inducing higher and colder cirrus, have likely increased regional forcing over the last forty years. We hypothesize that subarctic inter-annual cloud variability is likely a considerable influence on global cirrus cloud forcing sensitivity, given the irregularity of polar versus midlatitude synoptic weather intrusions. This study and hypothesis lays basis for an extrapolation of these MPLNET experiments to satellite-based lidar cirrus cloud datasets.

James R Campbell↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data-driven material models for atomistic simulation

The central approximation made in classical molecular dynamics simulation of materials is the interatomic potential used to calculate the forces on the atoms. Great effort and ingenuity is required to construct viable functional forms and find accurate parametrizations for potentials using traditional approaches. Machine learning has emerged as an effective alternative approach to develop accurate and robust interatomic potentials. Beginning with a very general model form, the potential is learned directly from a database of electronic structure calculations and therefore can be viewed as a multiscale link between quantum and classical atomistic simulations. Risk of inaccurate extrapolation exists outside the narrow range of time and length scales where the two methods can be directly compared. Here, we use the spectral neighbor analysis potential (SNAP) and show how a fit can be produced with minimal interpolation errors which is also robust in extrapolating beyond training. To demonstrate the approach, we have developed a tungsten-beryllium potential suitable for the full range of binary compositions. Subsequently, large-scale molecular dynamics simulations were performed of high energy Be atom implantation onto the (001) surface of solid tungsten. The machine learned W-Be potential generates a population of implantation structures consistent with quantum calculations of defect formation energies. A very shallow ( < 2 nm ) average Be implantation depth is predicted which may explain ITER diverter degradation in the presence of beryllium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Demonstration of the event identification capabilities of the NEXT-White detector

In experiments searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay, the possibility of identifying the two emitted electrons is a powerful tool in rejecting background events and therefore improving the overall sensitivity of the experiment. In this paper we present the first measurement of the efficiency of a cut based on the different event signatures of double and single electron tracks, using the data of the NEXT-White detector, the first detector of the NEXT experiment operating underground. Using a \TO\ calibration source to produce signal-like and background-like events with energies near 1.6 MeV, a signal efficiency of $71.6 \pm 1.5_{\textrm{ stat}} \pm 0.3_{\textrm{ sys}} \%$ for a background acceptance of $20.6 \pm 0.4_{\textrm{ stat}} \pm 0.3_{\textrm{ sys}} \%$ is found, in good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations. An extrapolation to the energy region of the neutrinoless double beta decay by means of Monte Carlo simulations is also carried out, and the results obtained show an improvement in background rejection over those obtained at lower energies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2018

Electrical and Magnetic Properties of Pb and In Nanofilaments in Asbestos near the Superconducting Transition

Bulk nanocomposites based on superconducting metals Pb and In embedded into matrices of natural chrysotile asbestos with the nanotube internal diameter d ~ 6 nm have been fabricated and studied. The low-temperature electrical and magnetic properties of the nanocomposites demonstrate the superconducting transition with the transition critical temperature T{sub c} ≈ (7.18 ± 0.02) K for the Pb–asbestos nanocomposite (this temperature is close to T{sub c} {sub bulk} = 7.196 K for bulk Pb). The electrical measurements show that In nanofilaments in asbestos have T{sub c} ~ 3.5–3.6 K that is higher than T{sub c} {sub bulk} = 3.41 K for bulk In. It is shown that the temperature smearing of the superconducting transition in the temperature dependences of the resistance R(T) ΔT ≈ 0.06 K for the Pb–asbestos and ΔT ≈ 1.8 K for the In–asbestos are adequately described by the fluctuation Aslamazov–Larkin and Langer–Ambegaokar theories. The resistive measurements show that the critical magnetic fields of the nanofilaments extrapolated to T = 0 K are H{sub c}(0) ~ 47 kOe for Pb in asbestos and H{sub c}(0) ~ 1.5 kOe for In in asbestos; these values are significantly higher than the values for the bulk materials (HH{sub c}{sup bulk} = 803 Oe for Pb and H{sub c}{sup bulk} = 285 Oe for In). The results of the electrical measurements for Pb‒asbestos and In–asbestos agree with the data for the magnetic-field dependences of the magnetic moment in these nanocomposites.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the effects of multiple land management practices, land cover change, and wildfire on the California landscape carbon budget with an empirical model

The effectiveness of land-based climate mitigation strategies is generally estimated on a case-by-case basis without considering interactions with other strategies or influencing factors. Here we evaluate a new, comprehensive approach that incorporates interactions among multiple management strategies, land use/cover change, wildfire, and climate, although the potential effects of climate change are not evaluated in this study. The California natural and working lands carbon and greenhouse gas model (CALAND) indicates that summing individual practice estimates of greenhouse gas impacts may underestimate emission reduction benefits in comparison with an integrated estimate. Annual per-area estimates of the potential impact of specific management practices on landscape emissions can vary based on the estimation period, which can be problematic for extrapolating such estimates over space and time. Furthermore, the actual area of implementation is a primary factor in determining potential impacts of management on landscape emissions. Nonetheless, less intensive forest management, avoided conversion to urban land, and urban forest expansion generally create the largest annual per-area reductions, while meadow restoration and forest fuel reduction and harvest practices generally create the largest increases with respect to no management. CALAND also shows that data uncertainty is too high to determine whether California land is a source or a sink of carbon emissions, but that estimating effects of management with respect to a baseline provides valid results. Important sources of this uncertainty are initial carbon density, net ecosystem carbon accumulation rates, and land use/cover change data. The appropriate choice of baseline is critical for generating valid results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗