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Optimal Scheduling of an Isolated Microgrid With Battery Storage Considering Load and Renewable Generation Uncertainties

By modeling the uncertainty of spinning reserves provided by energy storage with probabilistic constraints, a new optimal scheduling mode is proposed in this paper for minimizing the operating costs of an isolated microgrid (MG) by using chance-constrained programming. The model is transformed into a readily solvable mixed integer linear programming formulation in general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) via a proposed discretized step transformation approach and finally solved by applying the CPLEX solver. By properly setting the confidence levels of the spinning reserve probability constraints, the MG operation can achieve a tradeoff between reliability and economy. The test results on the modified Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Energy Control and Communication lab MG test system reveal that the proposal significantly exceeds the commonly used hybrid intelligent algorithm with much better and more stable optimization results and significantly reduced calculation times.

Li, Yang↗

Mechanisms Leading to Co-Existence of Gas Hydrate in Ocean Sediments [Part 1 of 2]

In this project we have sought to explain the co-existence of gas and hydrate phases in sediments within the gas hydrate stability zone. We have focused on the gas/brine interface at the scale of individual grains in the sediment. The capillary forces associated with a gas/brine interface play a dominant role in many processes that occur in the pores of sediments and sedimentary rocks. The mechanical forces associated with the same interface can lead to fracture initiation and propagation in hydrate-bearing sediments. Thus the unifying theme of the research reported here is that pore scale phenomena are key to understanding large scale phenomena in hydrate-bearing sediments whenever a free gas phase is present. Our analysis of pore-scale phenomena in this project has delineated three regimes that govern processes in which the gas phase pressure is increasing: fracturing, capillary fingering and viscous fingering. These regimes are characterized by different morphology of the region invaded by the gas. On the other hand when the gas phase pressure is decreasing, the corresponding regimes are capillary fingering and compaction. In this project, we studied all these regimes except compaction. Many processes of interest in hydrate-bearing sediments can be better understood when placed in the context of the appropriate regime. For example, hydrate formation in sub-permafrost sediments falls in the capillary fingering regime, whereas gas invasion into ocean sediments is likely to fall into the fracturing regime. Our research provides insight into the mechanisms by which gas reservoirs are converted to hydrate as the base of the gas hydrate stability zone descends through the reservoir. If the reservoir was no longer being charged, then variation in grain size distribution within the reservoir explain hydrate saturation profiles such as that at Mt. Elbert, where sand-rich intervals containing little hydrate are interspersed between intervals containing large hydrate saturations. Large volumes (of order one pore volume) of gaseous and aqueous phases must be transported into the gas hydrate stability zone. The driver for this transport is the pressure sink induced by a reduction in occupied pore volume that accompanies the formation of hydrate from gas and water. Pore-scale imbibition models and bed-scale multiphase flow models indicate that the rate-limiting step in converting gas to hydrate is the supply of water to the hydrate stability zone. Moreover, the water supply rate is controlled by capillarity-driven flux for conditions typical of the Alaska North Slope. A meter-scale laboratory experiment confirms that significant volumes of fluid phases move into the hydrate stability zone and that capillarity is essential for the water flux. The model shows that without capillarity-driven flux, large saturations of hydrate cannot form. The observations of thick zones of large saturation at Mallik and Mt Elbert thus suggest that the primary control on these systems is the rate of transport of gaseous and aqueous phases, driven by the pressure sink at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. A key finding of our project is the elucidation of "capillary fracturing" as a dominant gas transport mechanism in low-permeability media. We initially investigate this phenomenon by means of grain-scale simulations in which we extended a discrete element mechanics code (PFC, by Itasca) to incorporate the dynamics of first single-phase and then multiphase flow. A reductionist model on a square lattice allows us to determine some of the fundamental dependencies of the mode of gas invasion (capillary fingering, viscous fingering, and fracturing) on the parameters of the system. We then show that the morphology of the gas-invaded region exerts a fundamental control on the fabric of methane hydrate formation, and on the overpressures caused by methane hydrate dissociation. We demonstrate the existence of the different invasion regimes by means of controlled laboratory experiments in a radial cell. We collapse the behavior in the form of a phase diagram fully characterized by two dimensionless groups: a modified capillary number and a "fracturing number" that reflects the balance between the pressure forces that act to open conduits in the granular pack, and frictional forces that resist it. We use all this small-scale knowledge to propose simple mechanistic models of gas migration and hydrate formation at the geologic bed scale. We propose that methane transport in lake and oceanic sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other methane-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanisms Leading to Co-Existence of Gas Hydrate in Ocean Sediments [Part 2 of 2]

In this project we have sought to explain the co-existence of gas and hydrate phases in sediments within the gas hydrate stability zone. We have focused on the gas/brine interface at the scale of individual grains in the sediment. The capillary forces associated with a gas/brine interface play a dominant role in many processes that occur in the pores of sediments and sedimentary rocks. The mechanical forces associated with the same interface can lead to fracture initiation and propagation in hydrate-bearing sediments. Thus the unifying theme of the research reported here is that pore scale phenomena are key to understanding large scale phenomena in hydrate-bearing sediments whenever a free gas phase is present. Our analysis of pore-scale phenomena in this project has delineated three regimes that govern processes in which the gas phase pressure is increasing: fracturing, capillary fingering and viscous fingering. These regimes are characterized by different morphology of the region invaded by the gas. On the other hand when the gas phase pressure is decreasing, the corresponding regimes are capillary fingering and compaction. In this project, we studied all these regimes except compaction. Many processes of interest in hydrate-bearing sediments can be better understood when placed in the context of the appropriate regime. For example, hydrate formation in sub-permafrost sediments falls in the capillary fingering regime, whereas gas invasion into ocean sediments is likely to fall into the fracturing regime. Our research provides insight into the mechanisms by which gas reservoirs are converted to hydrate as the base of the gas hydrate stability zone descends through the reservoir. If the reservoir was no longer being charged, then variation in grain size distribution within the reservoir explain hydrate saturation profiles such as that at Mt. Elbert, where sand-rich intervals containing little hydrate are interspersed between intervals containing large hydrate saturations. Large volumes (of order one pore volume) of gaseous and aqueous phases must be transported into the gas hydrate stability zone. The driver for this transport is the pressure sink induced by a reduction in occupied pore volume that accompanies the formation of hydrate from gas and water. Pore-scale imbibition models and bed-scale multiphase flow models indicate that the rate-limiting step in converting gas to hydrate is the supply of water to the hydrate stability zone. Moreover, the water supply rate is controlled by capillarity-driven flux for conditions typical of the Alaska North Slope. A meter-scale laboratory experiment confirms that significant volumes of fluid phases move into the hydrate stability zone and that capillarity is essential for the water flux. The model shows that without capillarity-driven flux, large saturations of hydrate cannot form. The observations of thick zones of large saturation at Mallik and Mt Elbert thus suggest that the primary control on these systems is the rate of transport of gaseous and aqueous phases, driven by the pressure sink at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. A key finding of our project is the elucidation of ?capillary fracturing? as a dominant gas transport mechanism in low-permeability media. We initially investigate this phenomenon by means of grain-scale simulations in which we extended a discrete element mechanics code (PFC, by Itasca) to incorporate the dynamics of first singlephase and then multiphase flow. A reductionist model on a square lattice allows us to determine some of the fundamental dependencies of the mode of gas invasion (capillary fingering, viscous fingering, and fracturing) on the parameters of the system. We then show that the morphology of the gas-invaded region exerts a fundamental control on the fabric of methane hydrate formation, and on the overpressures caused by methane hydrate dissociation. We demonstrate the existence of the different invasion regimes by means of controlled laboratory experiments in a radial cell. We collapse the behavior in the form of a phase diagram fully characterized by two dimensionless groups: a modified capillary number and a ?fracturing number? that reflects the balance between the pressure forces that act to open conduits in the granular pack, and frictional forces that resist it. We use all this small-scale knowledge to propose simple mechanistic models of gas migration and hydrate formation at the geologic bed scale. We propose that methane transport in lake and oceanic sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other methane-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A VAS-numerical model impact study using the Gal-Chen variational approach

A numerical study based on the use of a variational assimilation technique of Gal-Chen (1983, 1986) was conducted to assess the impact of incorporating temperature data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) into a regional-scale numerical model. A comparison with the results of a control forecast using only conventional data indicated that the assimilation technique successfully combines actual VAS temperature observations with the dynamically balanced model fields without destabilizing the model during the assimilation cycle. Moreover, increasing the temporal frequency of VAS temperature insertions during the assimilation cycle was shown to enhance the impact on the model forecast through successively longer forecast periods. The incorporation of a nudging technique, whereby the model temperature field is constrained toward the VAS 'updated' values during the assimilation cycle, further enhances the impact of the VAS temperature data.

Aune, Robert M.↗

Photometric diversity of terrains on Triton

Voyager disk-resolved images of Triton in the violet (0.41 micrometers) and green (0.56 micrometer wavelengths have been analyzed to derive the photometric characteristics of terrains on Triton. Similar conclusions are found using two distinct but related definitions of photometric units, one based on color ratio and albedo properties (A. S. McEwen, 1990), the other on albedo and brightness ratios at different phase angles (P. Lee et al., 1992). A significant diversity of photometric behavior, much broader than that discovered so far on any other icy satellite, occurs among Triton's terrains. Remarkably, differences in photometric behavior do not correlate well with geologic terrain boundaries defined on the basis of surface morphology. This suggests that in most cases photometric properties on Triton are controlled by thin deposits superposed on underlying geologic units. Single scattering albedos are 0.98 or higher and asymmetry factors range from -0.35 to -0.45 for most units. The most distinct scattering behavior is exhibited by the reddish northern units already identified as the Anomalously Scattering Region (ASR), which scatters light almost isotropically with g = -0.04. In part due to the effects of Triton's clouds and haze, it is difficult to constrain the value of bar-theta, Hapke's macroscopic roughness parameter, precisely for Triton or to map differences in bar-theta among the different photometric terrains. However, our study shows that Triton must be relatively smooth, with bar-theta less than 15-20 degs and suggests that a value of 14 degs is appropriate. The differences in photometric characteristics lead to significantly different phase angle behavior for the various terrains. For example, a terrain (e.g., the ASR) that appears dark relative to another at low phase angles will reverse its contrast (become relatively brighter) at larger phase angles. The photometric parameters have been used to calculate hemispherical albedos for the units and to infer likely surface temperatures. Based on these results, we determine that all but the most southerly regions (i.e., mostly south of the equator) of the reddish northern terrains are likely to have been covered with deposits of nitrogen frost at the time of the Voyager flyby, in agreement with the suggestion from the photometry that these units are overlain by a thin veneer of material.

Hillier, J.↗

R and D work on the constrained vapor bubble system for a microgravity experiment

We are working with Project Scientists R. Balasubramanian and Sang Young Son, and a NASA Projects Team headed by Sue Motil at the Glenn Research Center on the design and development of an experimental system for use on the International Space Station during the year 2006. John Eustace is the coordinator for the flight experiment at Zin-Tech (previously Northrop-Grumman) for the design and development of the Constrained Vapor Bubble Heat Exchanger, CVBHX, cell which will fit into the Light Microscope Module, LMM. Good progress is being made. The CDR for the LMM being developed was held on December 10-1 1,2003. Experimental results obtained under microgravity conditions will be compared with those obtained at Rensselaer. Basic and applied research at Rensselaer continues on the experimental and theoretical details associated with passive phase change heat transfer processes controlled by interfacial forces in the CVBHX. The extensive results of our current research are presented in the 23 external publications listed below. Twenty-two external presentations have been given. Briefly, evaporation/condensation data from both vertical and horizontal CVBHX systems were obtained and analyzed for both polar (wetting) and apolar (partially wetting) fluids. The vertical system is axi-symmetric, but strongly effected by gravity. Whereas, the horizontal system is asymmetric, but weakly effected by gravity. Therefore, there will be significant differences in the operation of the cell in the earth s environment versus the operation under microgravity conditions. Due to its relative large size, the system s performance should be optimum under micro-gravity conditions, where the CVBHX should be a very effective passive heat exchanger. The CVBHX was found to be an ideal experimental setup in which to study the effects of interfacial phenomena on both the evaporation and drop-wise condensation processes. The optical technique (Image Analyzing Interferometry, IAI), which is based on the measurement and analysis of the reflectivity pattern of a thin film, was significantly improved. The accuracy of the IAI system is of critical importance to the success of the mission because it is used to measure the details of the pressure field in the liquid by measuring the film thickness profile. The accuracy was found to be excellent and various publications/presentations documenting these new results were written. Significant new results were also obtained for the effect of the oscillating contact line region on evaporation. Three doctoral students graduated under this grant. All three work in US industry, two for Intel. Another doctoral student is in his third year of study and will finish under an extension of the NASA grant: # NNC05GA27G.

Wayner, P. C., Jr.↗

The Spacecraft Mass Balance as a Diagnostic Tool for Cabin Air Quality

The spacecraft-level mass balance is a powerful tool for diagnosing and decoupling factors influencing cabin air quality, especially with respect to trace contaminant propagation. Successful implementation of this approach relies upon accurate and temporally relevant air quality measurements, which are often challenging to attain for emerging trace contaminants. In addition to the proper interpretation of air quality data trends, a thorough understanding of subsystem-level mass transfer is required to characterize process performance. For many Environmental Control and Life Support System processes, subsystem mass transfer may be predicted based on physicochemical properties and classic unit operation design approaches. Gaps in understanding of process performance should be supplemented with thorough ground testing. A high confidence in the fidelity of one of these two aspects, air quality data or process performance, may help offset uncertainties in the other. At minimum, thresholding assumptions and numerical methods can be imposed to constrain unknown parameters within the physical envelope of the situation at hand. Finally, the complexity of cabin-wide integrated mass balances may be reduced by implementing a phenomenological approach towards subsystem discretization.

Cabin Air-quality↗

Direct Deposition of Crystalline Ta 3 N 5 Thin Films on FTO for PEC Water Splitting

Tantalum Nitride is a promising photoanode material for solar water splitting, but the further study and practical use is constrained by the harsh conditions of the synthesis from Ta metal. Here we report the direct deposition of crystalline Ta 3 N 5 on FTO substrate via a custom-built ALD system. A combination of TaCl 5 (Ta-precursor) and ammonia (N-source) were sequentially pulsed into the ALD reactor with the substrate heated to 550 °C to deposit compact and thin films of Ta 3 N 5 with controllable thicknesses on FTO substrates. Importantly, it is shown that the FTO is chemically and structurally stable under the reducing conditions of ammonia at 550 °C. These electrodes produced an exceptional photocurrent onset potential of ~ 0.3 V vs. RHE with a maximum photocurrent of ~ 2.4 mA cm -2 at 1.23 V vs RHE. Results of photoelectrochemical investigations as a function of film thickness and illumination direction reveal that the performance of Ta 3 N 5 is controlled by a hole diffusion length of ~50 nm. These results are crucial for the successful integration of Ta 3 N 5 in efficient unassisted water splitting applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Testing SgrA{sup *} with the spectrum of its accretion structure

SgrA{sup *} is the supermassive black hole candidate at the center of the Galaxy and an ideal laboratory to test general relativity. Following previous work by other authors, we use the Polish doughnut model to describe an optically thin and constant angular momentum ion torus in hydrodynamical equilibrium and model the accretion structure around SgrA{sup *}. The radiation mechanisms are bremsstrahlung, synchrotron emission, and inverse Compton scattering. We compute the spectrum as seen by a distant observer in Kerr and non-Kerr spacetimes and we study how an accurate measurement can constrain possible deviations form the Kerr solution. As in the case of emission from a thin accretion disk, we find a substantial degeneracy between the determination of the spin and of possible deviations from the Kerr geometry, even when the parameters of the ion torus are fixed. This means that this technique cannot independently test the nature of SgrA{sup *} even in the presence of good data and with the systematics under control. However, it might do it in combination with other measurements (black hole shadow, radio pulsar, etc.)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seasonal water storage, stress modulation, and California seismicity

Establishing what controls the timing of earthquakes is fundamental to understanding the nature of the earthquake cycle and critical to determining time-dependent earthquake hazard. Seasonal loading provides a natural laboratory to explore the crustal response to a quantifiable transient force. In California, water storage deforms the crust as snow and water accumulates during the wet winter months. Here, we used 9 years of global positioning system (GPS) vertical deformation time series to constrain models of monthly hydrospheric loading and the resulting stress changes on fault planes of small earthquakes.The seasonal loading analysis reveals earthquakes occurring more frequently during stress conditions that favor earthquake rupture.We infer that California seismicity rates are modestly modulated by natural hydrological loading cycles.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cosmic Reionization on Computers: Physical Origin of Long Dark Gaps in Quasar Absorption Spectra

I explore the properties of “dark gaps” - regions in quasar absorption spectra without significant transmission - with several simulations from the Cosmic Reionization On Computers (CROC) project. The CROC simulations in the largest available boxes (120 cMpc) come close to matching both the distribution of mean opacities and the frequency of dark gaps, but alas not in the same model: the run that matches the mean opacities fails to contain enough dark gaps and vice versa. Nevertheless, the run that matches the dark gap distributions serves as a counterexample to claims in the literature that the dark gap statistics requires a late end to reionization - in that run reionization ends at z = 6.7 (likely too early). While multiple factors contribute to the frequency of large dark gaps in the simulations, the primary factor that controls the overall shape of the dark gap distribution is the ionization level in voids—the lowest-density regions produce the highest transmission spikes that terminate long gaps. As the result, the dark gap distribution correlates strongly with the fraction of the spectrum above the gap detection threshold and the observed distribution is matched by the simulation in which this fraction is 2%. Hence, the gap distribution by itself does not constrain the timing of reionization, although it may do so in combination with the distribution of mean opacities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Profile negotiation - A concept for integrating airborne and ground-based automation for managing arrival traffic

The profile negotiation process (PNP) concept as applied to the management of arrival traffic within the extended terminal area is presented, focusing on functional issues from the ground-based perspective. The PNP is an interactive process between an aircraft and air traffic control (ATC) which combines airborne and ground-based automation capabilities to determine conflict-free trajectories that are as close to an aircraft's preference as possible. Preliminary results from a real-time simulation study show that the controller teams are able to consistently and effectively negotiate conflict-free vertical profiles with 4D-equipped aircraft. The ability of the airborne 4D flight management system to adapt to ATC specified 4D trajectory constraints is found to be a requirement for successful execution of the PNP. It is recommended that the conventional method of cost index iteration for obtaining the minimum fuel 4D trajectory be supplemented by a method which constrains the profile speeds to those desired by ATC.

Green, Steven M.↗

Telescience capability for the Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland, incoherent-scatter radar facility

SRI International (SRI) operates an upper-atmospheric research facility in Sondre Stromfjord (Sondrestrom), Greenland. In the past, the facility's remote location and limited logistical support imposed constraints on the research that could be carried out at the site. Campaigns involving multiple instruments were often constrained due to limited space, and experiments requiring coordination with other geographically separated facilities, though possible, were difficult. To provide greater access to the facility, an electronic connection between Sondrestrom and the mainland U.S.A. was established, providing access to the National Science Internet. SRI developed telescience software that sends data from the incoherent scatter radar at the Sondrestrom facility to SRI's offices in Menlo Park, California. This software uses the transmission control protocol (TCP/IP) to transmit the data in near real time between the two locations and the X window system to generate displays of the data in Menlo Park. This is in contrast to using the X window system to display data remotely across a wide-area network. Using CP to transport data over the long distance network has resulted in significantly improved network throughput and latency. While currently used to transport radar data, the telescience software is designed and intended for simultaneous use with other instruments at Sondrestrom and other facilities. Work incorporating additional instruments is currently in progress.

Zambre, Yadunath B.↗

Effects of Optimisation Parameters on Data-Driven Magnetofrictional Modelling of Active Regions

Context . The solar magnetic field plays an essential role in the formation, evolution, and dynamics of large-scale eruptive structures in the corona. The estimation of the coronal magnetic field, the ultimate driver of space weather, particularly in the ‘low’ and ‘middle’ corona, is presently limited due to practical difficulties. Data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling (TMFM) of active region magnetic fields has been proven to be a useful tool to study the corona. The input to the model is the photospheric electric field that is inverted from a time series of the photospheric magnetic field. Constraining the complete electric field, that is, including the non-inductive component, is critical for capturing the eruption dynamics. We present a detailed study of the effects of optimisation of the non-inductive electric field on the TMFM of AR 12473. Aims . We aim to study the effects of varying the non-inductive electric field on the data-driven coronal simulations, for two alternative parametrisations. By varying parameters controlling the strength of the non-inductive electric field, we wish to explore the changes in flux rope formation and their early evolution and other parameters, for instance, axial flux and magnetic field magnitude. Methods . We used the high temporal and spatial resolution cadence vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The non-inductive electric field component in the photosphere is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field, thereby allowing unstable configurations to be formed. We estimated this component using an approach based on optimising the injection of magnetic energy. Results . Our data show that flux ropes are formed in all of the simulations except for those with the lower values of these optimised parameters. However, the flux rope formation, evolution and eruption time varies depending on the values of the optimisation parameters. The flux rope is formed and has overall similar evolution and properties with a large range of non-inductive electric fields needed to determine the non-inductive electric field component that is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field. Conclusions . This study shows that irrespective of non-inductive electric field values, flux ropes are formed and erupted, which indicates that data-driven TMFM can be used to estimate flux rope properties early in their evolution without needing to employ a lengthy optimisation process.

A. Kumari↗

Ground Operations of the ISS GNC Babb-Mueller Atmospheric Density Model

The ISS GNC system was updated recently with a new software release that provides onboard state determination capability. Prior to this release, only the Russian segment maintained and propagated the onboard state, which was periodically updated through Russian ground tracking. The new software gives the US segment the capability for maintaining the onboard state, and includes new GPS and state vector propagation capabilities. Part of this software package is an atmospheric density model based on the Babb-Mueller algorithm. Babb-Mueller efficiently mimics a full analytical density model, such as the Jacchia model. While lacchia is very robust and is used in the Mission Control Center, it is too computationally intensive for use onboard. Thus, Babb-Mueller was chosen as an alternative. The onboard model depends on a set of calibration coefficients that produce a curve fit to the lacchia model. The ISS GNC system only maintains one set of coefficients onboard, so a new set must be uplinked by controllers when the atmospheric conditions change. The onboard density model provides a real-time density value, which is used to calculate the drag experienced by the ISS. This drag value is then incorporated into the onboard propagation of the state vector. The propagation of the state vector, and therefore operation of the BabbMueller algorithm, will be most critical when GPS updates and secondary state vector sources fail. When GPS is active, the onboard state vector will be updated every ten seconds, so the propagation error is irrelevant. When GPS is inactive, the state vector must be updated at least every 24 hours, based on current protocol. Therefore, the Babb-Mueller coefficients must be accurate enough to fulfill the state vector accuracy requirements for at least one day. A ground operations concept was needed in order to manage both the on board Babb-Mueller density model and the onboard state quality. The Babb-Mueller coefficients can be determined operationally in two ways. The first method is to calibrate the coefficients in real-time, where a set of custom coefficients is generated for the real-time atmospheric conditions. The second approach is to generate pre-canned sets of coefficients that encompass the expected atmospheric conditions over the lifetime of the vehicle. These predetermined sets are known as occurrences. Even though a particular occurrence will not match the true atmospheric conditions, the error will be constrained by limiting the breadth of each occurrence. Both methods were investigated and the advantages and disadvantages of each were considered. The choice between these implementations was a trade-off between the additional accuracy of the real-time calibration and the simpler development for the approach using occurrences. The operations concept for the frequency of updates was also explored, and depends on the deviation in solar flux that still achieves the necessary accuracy of the coefficients. This was determined based on historical solar flux trends. This analysis resulted in an accurate and reliable implementation of the Babb-Mueller coefficients and how flight controllers use them during realtime operations.

Brogan, Jonathan↗

Design and Assessment of a Novel Approach for Ecosystem Warming Experiments in High‐Energy Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Coastal salt marshes have an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Direct and indirect responses to warming are expected to vary along the marsh elevation gradient, making ecosystem responses to warming at this marine‐terrestrial ecotone uncertain. The Marsh Ecosystem Response to Increased Temperatures (MERIT) experiment was established in 2018 on the North Sea coast of Germany. Experimental plots are evenly distributed over three elevational marsh zones (pioneer, low marsh, and high marsh) and include three temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5°C, +3.0°C). MERIT's novel design combines active warming (horizontal surface warming cables and vertical soil warming pins) with passive, partially covered domes. For performance assessment, temperature deltas between ambient and warmed plots were calculated and evaluated at seasonal, daily, and diurnal timescales. We used Linear Mixed Models with Residual Maximum Likelihood for evaluating warming treatment effects and constraining environmental factors. MERIT was effective at ecosystem warming in this high‐energy environment both above‐ and belowground. Mixed models show that warming treatment dominates temperature differences belowground and at the soil surface, along with factors such as wind speed, flooding duration, and solar radiation. Aboveground warming was lower than belowground warming, but the dome design minimized issues seen in other open‐top chamber experiments. The combination of passive aboveground warming with feedback‐controlled active surface and belowground heating provides a setup for understanding warming effects on tidal ecosystems without altering the natural impacts of wind, radiation, and tidal inundations at high‐energy coastlines. Our design creates opportunities to expand future warming experiments to remote locations and technically challenging environments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Generation and Evolution of High-Mach-Number Laser-Driven Magnetized Collisionless Shocks in the Laboratory

Here, we present the first laboratory generation of high-Mach-number magnetized collisionless shocks created through the interaction of an expanding laser-driven plasma with a magnetized ambient plasma. Time-resolved, two-dimensional imaging of plasma density and magnetic fields shows the formation and evolution of a supercritical shock propagating at magnetosonic Mach number M ms ≈ 12. Particle-in-cell simulations constrained by experimental data further detail the shock formation and separate dynamics of the multi-ion-species ambient plasma. The results show that the shocks form on time scales as fast as one gyroperiod, aided by the efficient coupling of energy, and the generation of a magnetic barrier between the piston and ambient ions. The development of this experimental platform complements present remote sensing and spacecraft observations, and opens the way for controlled laboratory investigations of high-Mach number collisionless shocks, including the mechanisms and efficiency of particle acceleration.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The effect of repeated hurricanes on the age of organic carbon in humid tropical forest soil

Abstract Increasing hurricane frequency and intensity with climate change is likely to affect soil organic carbon (C) stocks in tropical forests. We examined the cycling of C between soil pools and with depth at the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico in soils over a 30‐year period that spanned repeated hurricanes. We used a nonlinear matrix model of soil C pools and fluxes (“soilR”) and constrained the parameters with soil and litter survey data. Soil chemistry and stable and radiocarbon isotopes were measured from three soil depths across a topographic gradient in 1988 and 2018. Our results suggest that pulses and subsequent reduction of inputs caused by severe hurricanes in 1989, 1998, and two in 2017 led to faster mean transit times of soil C in 0–10 cm and 35–60 cm depths relative to a modeled control soil with constant inputs over the 30‐year period. Between 1988 and 2018, the occluded C stock increased and δ 13 C in all pools decreased, while changes in particulate and mineral‐associated C were undetectable. The differences between 1988 and 2018 suggest that hurricane disturbance results in a dilution of the occluded light C pool with an influx of young, debris‐deposited C, and possible microbial scavenging of old and young C in the particulate and mineral‐associated pools. These effects led to a younger total soil C pool with faster mean transit times. Our results suggest that the increasing frequency of intense hurricanes will speed up rates of C cycling in tropical forests, making soil C more sensitive to future tropical forest stressors.

14C↗