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DOE OSTI2025

Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS aerosol optical depth and AeroCom multi-model simulations: implications for model constraints and emission inventories

We assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment of Current (2021) and Future (2035) Technologies

This study presents a cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across current (2021) and future (2035) technologies using the Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model with industry-vetted assumptions. Results vary across vehicle classes but point to common trends: today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer significant (10–60%) GHG emissions reduction compared to diesel internal combustion engine vehicles and are the lowest emissions option per ton-mile of cargo movement, followed by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (5–50% emissions reduction). Emissions savings depend largely on the duty cycle and fuel economy of the vehicle type. Future vehicle technology advancements result in comparable emission reductions associated with BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs. Weight-limited BEV trucks see less per-ton-mile emissions reduction due to the impact of battery weight on increased vehicle weight and reduced payload capacity. By 2035, improvements in vehicle efficiency can reduce emissions across all powertrains. However, very low levels of emissions require switching vehicles’ use-phase fuel/energy to low-carbon fuels and electricity. Renewable diesel, e-fuels, hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage or renewables, and use of low-carbon electricity can all achieve over 70% reduction in GHG emissions from the current day diesel-based internal combustion engine vehicle.

alternative fuels↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are a leading source of uncertainty in estimates of the historical effective radiative forcing (ERF). One reason for this uncertainty is the difficulty in estimating the ERF from aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) in climate models, which typically requires multiple calls to the radiation code. Most commonly used methods also cannot disentangle the contributions from different processes to ERFaci. Here, we develop a new, computationally efficient method for estimating the shortwave (SW) ERFaci from liquid clouds using histograms of monthly averaged cloud fraction partitioned by cloud droplet effective radius (r e ) and liquid water path (LWP). Multiplying the histograms with SW cloud radiative kernels gives the total SW ERFaci from liquid clouds, which can be decomposed into contributions from the Twomey effect, LWP adjustments, and cloud fraction (CF) adjustments. We test the method with data from five CMIP6-era models, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument simulator to generate the histograms. Our method gives similar total SW ERFaci estimates to other established methods in regions of prevalent liquid cloud and indicates that the Twomey effect, LWP adjustments, and CF adjustments have contributed -0.34 ± 0.23, -0.22 ± 0.13, and -0.09 ± 0.11 W m -2 , respectively, to the effective radiative forcing of the climate since 1850 in the ensemble mean (95 % confidence). These results demonstrate that widespread adoption of a MODIS r e –LWP joint histogram diagnostic would allow the SW ERFaci and its components to be quickly and accurately diagnosed from climate model outputs, a crucial step for reducing uncertainty in the historical ERF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Measurement of the sizes of circumstellar dust shells around evolved stars with high mass loss rates

The research supported by the NASA ADP contract NAG5-1153 has been completed. The attached paper, which will be submitted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal in January 1992, presents the results of this work. Here is a summary of the project and its results. A set of computer programs was developed to process the raw 60 micron and 100 micron IRAS survey data. The programs were designed to detect faint extended emission surrounding a bright unresolved source. Candidate objects were chosen from a list of red giant stars and young planetary nebulae which have been detected in millimeter/submillimeter lines of CO. Of the 279 stars examined, 55 were resolved at 60 microns. The principle results of the study are given. The average age for the shells surrounding the 9 Mira-type stars which are extended is 6 x 10(exp 4) yr. This suggests that the period during which these stars lose mass lasts for approx 10(exp 5) yr. The oldest shell found surrounds U Ori, and the youngest surrounds Mira itself. Some shells appear to be detached from the central star. This phenomenon is more common among older stars, suggesting that the mass loss becomes more episodic as the star sheds its envelope. Although all 8 stars less distant than 200 pc are resolved in the IRAS 60 micron data, 29 stars within 500 pc were not. These stars probably have younger circumstellar shells than those which were resolved. Almost all the carbon stars with distances of 500 pc or less have resolved shells, while only 1/2 of the oxygen-rich stars do. The resolved carbon star shells also are older on average than the oxygen-rich ones. These facts imply that carbon stars have been losing mass for a longer period, on average, than oxygen-rich red giants. Large circumstellar shells tend to be found at large distances from the galactic plane, confirming that the ISM density limits the size to which a dust shell can grow. Surprisingly, even very large shells seem to be nearly spherical, and do not appear to be distorted by ram-pressure caused by the star's motion with respect to the ISM. Radiative transfer models and the value of I sub 60 microns/I sub 100 microns allow the average dust temperature in the outer regions of a circumstellar shell to be estimated. The typical value obtained in about 35 K.

Phillips, T. G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"

This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

High-Performance Bipropellant Engine

TRW, under contract to the NASA Lewis Research Center, has successfully completed over 10 000 sec of testing of a rhenium thrust chamber manufactured via a new-generation powder metallurgy. High performance was achieved for two different propellants, N2O4- N2H4 and N2O4 -MMH. TRW conducted 44 tests with N2O4-N2H4, accumulating 5230 sec of operating time with maximum burn times of 600 sec and a specific impulse Isp of 333 sec. Seventeen tests were conducted with N2O4-MMH for an additional 4789 sec and a maximum Isp of 324 sec, with a maximum firing duration of 700 sec. Together, the 61 tests totalled 10 019 sec of operating time, with the chamber remaining in excellent condition. Of these tests, 11 lasted 600 to 700 sec. The performance of radiation-cooled rocket engines is limited by their operating temperature. For the past two to three decades, the majority of radiation-cooled rockets were composed of a high-temperature niobium alloy (C103) with a disilicide oxide coating (R512) for oxidation resistance. The R512 coating practically limits the operating temperature to 1370 C. For the Earth-storable bipropellants commonly used in satellite and spacecraft propulsion systems, a significant amount of fuel film cooling is needed. The large film-cooling requirement extracts a large penalty in performance from incomplete mixing and combustion. A material system with a higher temperature capability has been matured to the point where engines are being readied for flight, particularly the 100-lb-thrust class engine. This system has powder rhenium (Re) as a substrate material with an iridium (Ir) oxidation-resistant coating. Again, the operating temperature is limited by the coating; however, Ir is capable of long-life operation at 2200 C. For Earth-storable bipropellants, this allows for the virtual elimination of fuel film cooling (some film cooling is used for thermal control of the head end). This has resulted in significant increases in specific impulse performance (15 to 20 sec). To determine the merits of a powder rhenium thrust chamber, Lewis On-Board Propulsion Branch directed TRW (under the Space Storable Rocket Technology Program and the High Pressure Earth Storable Rocket Technology Program) to design, fabricate, and test an engineering model to serve as a technology demonstrator.

Biaglow, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗

DOE OSTI2020

High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bridging semantics, control specifications and assessment: A library for scalable demand flexibility controls

There is growing recognition that Demand Flexibility (DF) can play a major role in enhancing grid reliability, with building control applications emerging as key enablers for DF. However, the traditional approach to deploying new control applications in buildings, including those for DF, remains largely manual and tailored to individual buildings, making it difficult to scale. While research efforts have explored semantics-driven portability, DF controls specification, and assessment approaches, these initiatives are fragmented and limited in scope. This paper proposes a novel methodology, grounded in design science research, to integrate these elements and create a comprehensive DF controls library for both industry and academia. This approach is applied to develop the Demand FLEXibility controls LIBrary using Semantics (DFLEXLIBS), an extensible open-source library that provides DF controls for HVAC systems in Python. DFLEXLIBS enables portable, easy-to-deploy controls that abstract building-specific data points, facilitating assessment across diverse buildings. DFLEXLIBS features nine different control applications, and it is successfully implemented and tested across four virtual and two real buildings, bridging the gap between semantics-driven portability, DF controls specification, and rigorous performance assessment. Its benefits are measured by a reusability ratio greater than 90% and a functional overlap ratio of around 70% for the most common functions used in the library, significantly reducing time for deploying new controls.

Controls library↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Community-Based Services that Facilitate Interoperability and Intercomparison of Precipitation Datasets from Multiple Sources

Over the past 12 years, large volumes of precipitation data have been generated from space-based observatories (e.g., TRMM), merging of data products (e.g., gridded 3B42), models (e.g., GMAO), climatologies (e.g., Chang SSM/I derived rain indices), field campaigns, and ground-based measuring stations. The science research, applications, and education communities have greatly benefited from the unrestricted availability of these data from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and, in particular, the services tailored toward precipitation data access and usability. In addition, tools and services that are responsive to the expressed evolving needs of the precipitation data user communities have been developed at the Precipitation Data and Information Services Center (PDISC) (http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitation or google NASA PDISC), located at the GES DISC, to provide users with quick data exploration and access capabilities. In recent years, data management and access services have become increasingly sophisticated, such that they now afford researchers, particularly those interested in multi-data set science analysis and/or data validation, the ability to homogenize data sets, in order to apply multi-variant, comparison, and evaluation functions. Included in these services is the ability to capture data quality and data provenance. These interoperability services can be directly applied to future data sets, such as those from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. This presentation describes the data sets and services at the PDISC that are currently used by precipitation science and applications researchers, and which will be enhanced in preparation for GPM and associated multi-sensor data research. Specifically, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) will be illustrated. Giovanni enables scientific exploration of Earth science data without researchers having to perform the complicated data access and match-up processes. In addition, PDISC tool and service capabilities being adapted for GPM data will be described, including the Google-like Mirador data search and access engine; semantic technology to help manage large amounts of multi-sensor data and their relationships; data access through various Web services (e.g., OPeNDAP, GDS, WMS, WCS); conversion to various formats (e.g., netCDF, HDF, KML (for Google Earth)); visualization and analysis of Level 2 data profiles and maps; parameter and spatial subsetting; time and temporal aggregation; regridding; data version control and provenance; continuous archive verification; and expertise in data-related standards and interoperability. The goal of providing these services is to further the progress towards a common framework by which data analysis/validation can be more easily accomplished.

Liu, Zhong↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework for Performance Evaluation and Design Optimization of PCM Embedded Heat Exchangers for the Built Environment

This research sheds light on the performance evaluation and design optimization of PCM-HXs for the built environment, addressing several barriers to practical issues to PCM-HX commercialization such as modeling aspects (i.e., modeling expertise and computational / time investment, etc.), manufacturing aspects (i.e., at-scale manufacturing, cost assessments, etc.) and experimental performance assessment (i.e., reliable experimental data, assessment of multiple PCM-working fluid combinations, etc.). We present a novel, comprehensive, and experimentally-validated design optimization framework for PCM-HXs capable of simulating any PCM-HX geometry with reasonable accuracy and significant computational time savings when compared to traditional CFD-based design practices. The framework was validated for a wide range of PCM-HX configurations, including a design optimization for a domestic hot water heater application where TES partially replaces electrical heating input. The resulting PCM-HXs were found to deliver 34-68% of the total daily hot water supply with only 5-10% package volume increase from the water heater, thus within U.S. DOE targets for TES systems. To identify the most promising HXs for PCM applications, first-order geometry and cost analyses were conducted based on off-the-shelf HX products. As part of this work, 9 PCM-HX prototypes were manufactured using additive and conventional manufacturing methods. Detailed economy-of-scale assessments were conducted for the most promising PCM-HXs and were found to have a good outlook for the next 5-10 years. The PCM-HX design optimization framework was validated through comprehensive in-house experimental testing using newly-developed PCM-to-fluid test facilities. In total,10 total in-house component-level experiments were conducted using these prototypes, including 9 with water and 1 with refrigerant (R410A) as the working fluid. It was found that the framework can successfully predict experimental thermal-hydraulic performance within ±10-20% the first time without manual design changes, eliminating the need for time-consuming and expensive prototyping efforts as part of the design process. As part of this work, a publicly-available PCM web tool was released which includes a PCM property database (531 PCMs) and PCM-HX modeling tool to assist the design community on common PCM-HX use-cases, e.g., single/multiple flow path(s) fluid-to-PCM and air-to-fluid-to-PCM configurations (https://ceeeweb.umd.edu/pcmapp/). This work will accelerate the design and time to market for next generation PCM-HXs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2015

Python-Based Scientific Analysis and Visualization of Precipitation Systems at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

At NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Python is used several different ways to analyze and visualize precipitating weather systems. A number of different Python‐based software packages have been developed, which are available to the larger scientific community. The approach in all these packages is to utilize pre‐existing Python modules as well as to be object‐oriented and scalable. The first package that will be described and demonstrated is the Python Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) Data Toolkit, or PyAMPR for short. PyAMPR reads geolocated brightness temperature data from any flight of the AMPR airborne instrument over its 25‐year history into a common data structure suitable for user‐defined analyses. It features rapid, simplified (i.e., one line of code) production of quick‐look imagery, including Google Earth overlays, swath plots of individual channels, and strip charts showing multiple channels at once. These plotting routines are also capable of significant customization for detailed, publication‐ready figures. Deconvolution of the polarization‐varying channels to static horizontally and vertically polarized scenes is also available. Examples will be given of PyAMPR's contribution toward real‐time AMPR data display during the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), which took place in the Carolinas during May‐June 2014. The second software package is the Marshall Multi‐Radar/Multi‐Sensor (MRMS) Mosaic Python Toolkit, or MMM‐Py for short. MMM‐Py was designed to read, analyze, and display three‐dimensional national mosaicked reflectivity data produced by the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). MMM‐Py can read MRMS mosaics from either their unique binary format or their converted NetCDF format. It can also read and properly interpret the current mosaic design (4 regional tiles) as well as mosaics produced prior to late July 2013 (8 tiles). MMM‐Py can easily stitch multiple tiles together to provide a larger regional or national picture of precipitating weather systems. Composites, horizontal and vertical crosssections, and combinations thereof are easily displayed using as little as one line of code. MMM‐Py can also write to the native MRMS binary format, and sub‐sectioning of tiles (or multiple stitched tiles) is anticipated to be in place by the time of this meeting. Thus, MMM‐Py also can be used to power the creation of custom mosaics for targeted regional studies. Overlays of other data (e.g., lightning observations) are easily accomplished. Demonstrations of MMM‐Py, including the creation of animations, will be shown. Finally, Marshall has done significant work to interface Python‐based analysis routines with the U.S. Department of Energy's Py‐ART software package for radar data ingest, processing, and analysis. One example of this is the Python Turbulence Detection Algorithm (PyTDA), an MSFC‐based implementation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) for the purposes of convective‐scale analysis, situational awareness, and forensic meteorology. PyTDA exploits Py‐ART's radar data ingest routines and data model to rapidly produce aviation‐relevant turbulence estimates from Doppler radar data. Work toward processing speed optimization and better integration within the Py‐ART framework will be highlighted. Python‐based analysis within the Py‐ART framework is also being done for new research related to intercomparison of ground‐based radar data with satellite estimates of ocean winds, as well as research on the electrification of pyrocumulus clouds.

Lang, Timothy J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Membrane Structure and Dynamics during Bioproduct Production in Zymomonas mobilis by Molecular Simulation

The conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into biofuels and bioproducts by microbial biorefineries is central to a sustainable chemical industry. Zymomonas mobilis is one such biorefinery chassis and is resistant to ethanol stress, leading to its use in biomass conversion to biofuels and bioproducts. However, Z. mobilis growth is often inhibited by organic acids, aldehydes, alcohols, ketones, and amides found in biomass hydrolysate. The resulting slow growth inhibits production and as a result drives up the price for the resulting products. One hypothesis is that these molecules interact with or disrupt the bacterial membrane, triggering stress responses and hindering growth. To test this hypothesis at the molecular level, we employ all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate lignocellulose-derived small molecules and their impact on a biologically relevant Z. mobilis membrane model. Simulations were conducted across a range of inhibitor concentrations from 0 to 2.5 mol %, analyzing key membrane properties such as area per lipid (APL), membrane thickness, lipid-order parameter (−S CH ), lateral diffusion coefficient (D xy ), and permeability coefficient (Pm). From simulation, we observed altered membrane structure and dynamics at these modest small molecule concentrations commonly found in hydrolysates. Generally, the membranes become thinner, with a higher area per lipid and lower-order parameter as the small molecule concentration increases. These trends are stronger for more hydrophobic molecules with greater hydrophobic bulk, as isobutanol, propanol, and propanoic acid showed greater membrane perturbations as the concentration increased compared to other small molecules. Tracking small molecule distributions directly in our equilibrium simulations allows us to determine concentration-dependent free energy profiles for these molecules. While the trends are noisy, generally the barriers to crossing the membrane decrease as the concentration increases, indicating that the membranes become leakier as small molecule concentrations rise. Comparing between native Z. mobilis membranes with hopanoids and membranes sharing the same phospholipid composition but without hopanoids, hopanoids stabilize and order the membrane for smaller molecules to maintain membrane structure but appear insufficient for larger hydrophobic molecules like isobutanol. These findings provide a mechanistic understanding of how small molecules found in biomass degradation streams interact with the Z. mobilis membrane, offering valuable insights for future strain engineering efforts to optimize biofuel and bioproduct synthesis from biomass feedstocks by highlighting limits to small molecule tolerance. This knowledge can guide the modification of membrane composition to develop more robust microbes, thereby improving microbial survival and yields in industrial contexts.

Singh, Nitin Kumar [Michigan State Univ., East Lan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Audibility of Multiple, Low-Frequency Tonal Signals in Noise

The main purpose of this study is to examine the audibility of multiple, low-frequency tones that are placed in distinct auditory channels. Three experiments are described, the goals of which are to determine if the presence of sound in multiple channels results in enhanced audibility and to assess the applicability of the Statistical Summation Model (SSM) to this frequency range. This model predicts that for the case of multiple signals that are in separate auditory channels, implying statistical independence, each with sensitivity value d prime of i, the resulting total sensitivity is given by the square root of the sum of the squares of the individual d prime of i values. In common with previous studies conducted at higher frequencies, the signals are pure tones and the maskers are broadband noise. The requirement that low frequency tones be placed in separate auditory filters limited the number of tones to a maximum of three. The first of the three experiments measured the change in masked thresholds for two- and three-tone signals relative to the level of the equally-detectable single tones. The multiple tone signals were composed of combinations of 55, 120 and 200 Hz tones. The measured changes in thresholds exceeded those predicted by the SSM, although they did not differ statistically from the model predictions. The second experiment employed the same overall approach but acquired more data and concentrated on the three-tone signal. Once again, the measured changes in masked threshold exceeded the model predictions, this time to a statistically-significant degree. Two issues were postulated with the potential to yield inflated changes in masked threshold: interaction between tones resulting in perceptible intermodulation/difference tones, and the assumption that the tones were in distinct auditory filters and statistically independent of one another. The third experiment used two sets of three-tone signals to address these latter concerns. The first set of three tones was composed of harmonically related tone frequencies of 55, 110 and 165 Hz, which was an attempt to reduce effects of intermodulation difference tones. The second set of three tones was chosen to be 110, 220 and 330 Hz, again reducing effects of difference tones, but also providing greater separation between tones. Results for the first set of three tones compared to those of the earlier experiments indicated that intermodulation was not an important effect. The second set of three tones (110, 220, 330 Hz) yielded changes in masked thresholds that, on average, were in good agreement with the SSM, although intersubject variability was large and prohibited a definitive conclusion regarding the concern that tone spacing was inadequate. The results of the three experiments showed that the masked threshold of sounds with multiple (two or three) equally-detectable low frequency tones was lower than those of the single tones. In other words, it is clear that audibility is enhanced by the presence of signals in multiple auditory filters. This finding is consistent with most previous research conducted at higher frequencies. In contrast with previous research, test subjects were, on average, able to detect multitone sounds at lower levels than those predicted using the SSM. Analyses that included Monte Carlo simulations showed that normally distributed errors in the single tone thresholds result in biased estimates of the thresholds of multitone sounds. This phenomenon is likely responsible for at least a substantial fraction of the unexpected deviation of measurements from SSM predictions.

Rafaelof, Menachem↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Transition of High-Resolution NASA MODIS Sea Surface Temperatures into the WRF Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) composite at 2-km resolution that has been implemented in version 3 of the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The WRF EMS is a complete, full physics numerical weather prediction package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The installation, configuration, and execution of either the ARW or NMM models is greatly simplified by the WRF EMS to encourage its use by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and the university community. The WRF EMS is easy to run on most Linux workstations and clusters without the need for compilers. Version 3 of the WRF EMS contains the most recent public release of the WRF-NMM and ARW modeling system (version 3 of the ARW is described in Skamarock et al. 2008), the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) utilities, and the WRF Post-Processing program. The system is developed and maintained by the NWS National Science Operations Officer Science and Training Resource Coordinator. To initialize the WRF EMS with high-resolution MODIS SSTs, SPoRT developed the composite product consisting of MODIS SSTs over oceans and large lakes with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) filling data over land points. Filling the land points is required due to minor inconsistencies between the WRF land-sea mask and that used to generate the MODIS SST composites. This methodology ensures a continuous field that adequately initializes all appropriate arrays in WRF. MODIS composites covering the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean are generated daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC corresponding to overpass times of the NASA Aqua and Terra polar orbiting satellites. The MODIS SST product is output in gridded binary-1 (GRIB-1) data format for a seamless incorporation into WRF via the WPS utilities. The full-resolution, 1-km MODIS product is sub-sampled to 2-km grid spacing due to limitations in handling very large dimensions in the GRIB-1 data format. The GRIB-1 files are posted online at ftp://ftp.nsstc.org/sstcomp/WRF/, which is directly accessed by the WRF EMS scripts. The MODIS SST composites are also downloaded to the EMS data server, which is accessible by the WRF EMS users and NWS WFOs. The SPoRT MODIS SST composite provides the model with superior detail of the ocean gradients around Florida and surrounding waters, whereas the operational RTG SST typically depicts a relatively smooth field and is not able to capture sharp horizontal gradients in SST. Differences of 2-3 C are common over small horizontal distances, leading to enhanced SST gradients on either side of the Gulf Stream and along the edges of the cooler shelf waters. These sharper gradients can in turn produce atmospheric responses in simulated temperature and wind fields as depicted in LaCasse et al. Differences in atmospheric verification statistics over a several month study were generally small in the vicinity of south Florida; however, the validation of SSTs at specific buoy locations revealed important improvements in the biases and RMS errors, especially in the vicinity of the cooler shelf waters off the east-central Florida coast. A current weakness in the MODIS SST product is the occurrence of occasional discontinuities caused by high latency in SST coverage due to persistent cloud cover. An enhanced method developed by Jedlovec et al. (2009, GHRSST User Symposium) reduces the occurrence of these problems by adding Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer -- EOS (AMSR-E) SST data to the compositing process. Enhanced SST composites are produced over the ocean regions surrounding the Continental U.S. at four times each day corresponding to Terra and Aqua equator crossing times. For a given day and overpass time, both MODInd AMSR-E data from the previous seven days form a collection used in the compositing. At each MODIS pixel, cloud-free SST values from the collection are used to form a weighted average based on their latency (number of days from the current day). In this way, recent SST data are given more weight than older data. One of the primary issues involved in incorporating the AMSR-E microwave data in the composites is the tradeoff between the decreased spatial resolution of the AMSR-E data (25 km) and the increased coverage due to its near all-weather capability. Currently, the AMSR-E is given a weight of 20% compared to MODIS data, thereby preserving the spatial structure observed in the MODIS data. Day-time (night-time) AMSR-E SST data from Aqua are used with both Terra and Aqua MODIS day-time (night-time) SST data sets.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Electric propulsion system technology

The work performed in fiscal year (FY) 1991 under the Propulsion Technology Program RTOP (Research and Technology Objectives and Plans) No. (55) 506-42-31 for Low-Thrust Primary and Auxiliary Propulsion technology development is described. The objectives of this work fall under two broad categories. The first of these deals with the development of ion engines for primary propulsion in support of solar system exploration. The second with the advancement of steady-state magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thruster technology at 100 kW to multimegawatt input power levels. The major technology issues for ion propulsion are demonstration of adequate engine life at the 5 to 10 kW power level and scaling ion engines to power levels of tens to hundreds of kilowatts. Tests of a new technique in which the decelerator grid of a three-grid ion accelerator system is biased negative of neutralizer common potential in order to collect facility induced charge-exchange ions are described. These tests indicate that this SAND (Screen, Accelerator, Negative Decelerator) configuration may enable long duration ion engine endurance tests to be performed at vacuum chamber pressures an order of magnitude higher than previously possible. The corresponding reduction in pumping speed requirements enables endurance tests of 10 kW class ion engines to be performed within the resources of existing technology programs. The results of a successful 5,000-hr endurance of a xenon hollow cathode operating at an emission current of 25 A are described, as well as the initial tests of hollow cathodes operating on a mixture of argon and 3 percent nitrogen. Work performed on the development of carbon/carbon grids, a multi-orifice hollow cathode, and discharge chamber erosion reduction through the addition of nitrogen are also described. Critical applied-field MPD thruster technical issues remain to be resolved, including demonstration of reliable steady-state operation at input powers of hundreds to thousands of kilowatts, achievement of thruster efficiency and specific impulse levels required for missions of interest, and demonstration of adequate engine life at these input power, efficiency, and specific impulse levels. To address these issues we have designed, built, and tested a 100 kW class, radiation-cooled applied-field MPD thruster and a unique dual-beam thrust stand that enables separate measurements of the applied- and self-field thrust components. We have also initiated the development of cathode thermal and plasma sheath models that will eventually be used to guide the experimental program. In conjunction with the cathode modeling, a new cathode test facility is being constructed. This facility will support the study of cathode thermal behavior and erosion mechanisms, the diagnosis of the near-cathode plasma and the development and endurance testing of new, high-current cathode designs. To facilitate understanding of electrode surface phenomenon, we have implemented a telephoto technique to obtain photographs of the electrodes during engine operation. In order to reduce the background vacuum tank pressure during steady-state engine operation in order to obtain high fidelity anode thermal data, we have developed and are evaluating a gas-dynamic diffuser. A review of experience with alkali metal propellants for MPD thrusters led to the conclusion that alkali metals, particularly lithium, offer the potential for significant engine performance and lifetime improvements. These propellants are also condensible at room temperature, substantially reducing test facility pumping requirements. The most significant systems-level issue is the potential for spacecraft contamination. Subsequent experimental and theoretical efforts should be directed toward verifying the performance and lifetime gains and characterizing the thruster flow field to assess its impact on spacecraft surfaces. Consequently, we have begun the design and development of a new facility to study engine operation with alkali metal propellants.

Brophy, John R.↗