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Detecting the relationship between economic growth, CO{sub 2} and energy consumption by using panel data approach

Many scholars have shown their interest into the relationship between energy consumption (EC), gross domestic product (GDP) and emissions. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between GDP, EC and CO{sub 2} within multivariate model by using panel data method in Asian countries; Korea, Malaysia, Japan and China for annually data during the period 1960 to 2010. The main finding shows that CO{sub 2} can be explained more than 86% & 78% by EC and GDP in each of cross section model and period model respectively. As a result of that, CO{sub 2} emissions should be considered as an important factor in energy consumption and gross domestic product by policy maker.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Preliminary consideration of CFETR ITER-like case diagnostic system

Chinese Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) is a new superconducting tokamak device being designed in China, which aims at bridging the gap between ITER and DEMO, where DEMO is a tokamak demonstration fusion reactor. Two diagnostic cases, ITER-like case and towards DEMO case, have been considered for CFETR early and later operating phases, respectively. In this paper, some preliminary consideration of ITER-like case will be presented. Based on ITER diagnostic system, three versions of increased complexity and coverage of the ITER-like case diagnostic system have been developed with different goals and functions. Version A aims only machine protection and basic control. Both of version B and version C are mainly for machine protection, basic and advanced control, but version C has an increased level of redundancy necessary for improved measurements capability. The performance of these versions and needed R&D work are outlined.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

WW Geminorum: An early B-type eclipsing binary evolving into the contact phase

WW Gem is a B-type eclipsing binary with a period of 1.2378 days. The CCD photometry of this binary was performed in 2013 December using the 85 cm telescope at the Xinglong Stations of the National Astronomical Observatories of China. Using the updated W-D program, the photometric model was deduced from the VRI light curves. The results imply that WW Gem is a near-contact eclipsing binary whose primary component almost fills its Roche lobe. The photometric mass ratio is q {sub ph} = 0.48(± 0.05). All collected times of minimum light, including two new ones, were used for the period studies. The orbital period changes of WW Gem could be described by an upward parabola, possibly overlaid by a light-time orbit with a period of P {sub mod} = 7.41(± 0.04) yr and a semi-amplitude of A = 0.0079 days(± 0.0005 days), respectively. This kind of cyclic oscillation may be attributed to the light-travel time effect via the third body. The long-term period increases at a rate of dP/dt = +3.47(±0.04) × 10{sup –8} day yr{sup –1}, which may be explained by the conserved mass transfer from the less massive component to the more massive one. With mass transfer, the massive binary WW Gem may be evolving into a contact binary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Edge localized mode characteristics and divertor heat flux during stationary and transient phase for CFETR hybrid scenario

The study of edge localized mode (ELM) behavior, stationary heat flux and transient heat flux during the ELM crash phase is performed for a China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) 1 GW hybrid mode operation scenario ($R$ = 7.2 m, ${B_{\text{T}}}$ = 6.5 T, ${I_{\text{p}}}$ = 13.78 MA). Modeling and simulation start with a scenario obtained by multi-code integrated modeling on the one modeling framework for integrated tasks framework. Linear stability and nonlinear simulations of ELM dynamics are carried out using the BOUT++ six-field reduced magnetohydrodynamic module, which show a much smaller ELM energy loss (Δ ELM ~ 0.13%) compared to that of a Type-I ELM. Parametric analysis of the weak linear growth rate and small ELM energy loss characteristics shed light on physics corresponding to a grassy ELM regime for CFETR 1 GW hybrid scenario. The transient heat flux on the divertor target during this small ELM phase is investigated using BOUT++. Here we found that upstream radial transport in the scrape-off-layer (SOL) induced by small ELMs is weak, which keeps it in the drift-dominated region. However, the heat flux width is still broadened to ${\lambda _{\text{q}}}$ = 4.64 mm by the increase of separatrix temperature during ELM nonlinear evolution. The impact of transient peak heat load and ELM energy fluence on tungsten melting and net erosion rate of divertor target is evaluated for the first-time using physics-based transport that connects the pedestal with the SOL. Energy fluence caused by a single ELM pulse is below the tungsten melting limit, while tungsten erosion would exceed the material requirements. We conclude that external mitigation methods, such as divertor detachment and advanced divertor geometry are likely needed for the steady state operation of CFETR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Gamma dose rate estimation and operation management suggestions for decommissioning the reactor pressure vessel of HTR-PM

China is now designing and constructing a high temperature gas cooled reactor-pebble bed module (HTR-PM). In order to investigate the future decommissioning approach and evaluate possible radiation dose, gamma dose rate near the reactor pressure vessel was calculated for different cooling durations using QAD-CGA program. The source term of this calculation was provided by KORIGEN program. Based on the calculated results, the spatial distribution and temporal changes of gamma dose rate near reactor pressure vessel was systematically analyzed. A suggestion on planning decommissioning operation of reactor pressure vessel of HTRPM was given based on calculated dose rate and the Chinese Standard GB18871-2002. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Decommissioning for the containment vessel of HTR-PM: Monte Carlo simulation and long-time predictions

A high temperature gas cooled reactor-pebble bed module (HTR-PM) is currently under design and construction in China. Calculations of induced radioactivity in the concrete containment vessel of HTR-PM were performed in order to predict the decommissioning problems. The main activation products and the ambient dose equivalent rate corresponding to 40 years of operations followed by 30 days/1 year/10 years of decay, were calculated by using the Monte Carlo particle transport code FLUKA. Finally, according to the Chinese National Standard and on the basis of the knowledge gained from this study, the classifications of the radioactive solid wastes were discussed, and some suggestions for the working duration of the employees were given. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SU-E-I-87: Automated Liver Segmentation Method for CBCT Dataset by Combining Sparse Shape Composition and Probabilistic Atlas Construction

Purpose: The aiming of this study was to extract liver structures for daily Cone beam CT (CBCT) images automatically. Methods: Datasets were collected from 50 intravenous contrast planning CT images, which were regarded as training dataset for probabilistic atlas and shape prior model construction. Firstly, probabilistic atlas and shape prior model based on sparse shape composition (SSC) were constructed by iterative deformable registration. Secondly, the artifacts and noise were removed from the daily CBCT image by an edge-preserving filtering using total variation with L1 norm (TV-L1). Furthermore, the initial liver region was obtained by registering the incoming CBCT image with the atlas utilizing edge-preserving deformable registration with multi-scale strategy, and then the initial liver region was converted to surface meshing which was registered with the shape model where the major variation of specific patient was modeled by sparse vectors. At the last stage, the shape and intensity information were incorporated into joint probabilistic model, and finally the liver structure was extracted by maximum a posteriori segmentation.Regarding the construction process, firstly the manually segmented contours were converted into meshes, and then arbitrary patient data was chosen as reference image to register with the rest of training datasets by deformable registration algorithm for constructing probabilistic atlas and prior shape model. To improve the efficiency of proposed method, the initial probabilistic atlas was used as reference image to register with other patient data for iterative construction for removing bias caused by arbitrary selection. Results: The experiment validated the accuracy of the segmentation results quantitatively by comparing with the manually ones. The volumetric overlap percentage between the automatically generated liver contours and the ground truth were on an average 88%–95% for CBCT images. Conclusion: The experiment demonstrated that liver structures of CBCT with artifacts can be extracted accurately for following adaptive radiation therapy. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61201441), Research Fund for Excellent Young and Middle-aged Scientists of Shandong Province (No. BS2012DX038), Project of Shandong Province Higher Educational Science and Technology Program (No. J12LN23), Jinan youth science and technology star (No.20120109)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-I-96: A Study About the Influence of ROI Variation On Tumor Segmentation in PET

Purpose: To study the influence of different regions of interest (ROI) on tumor segmentation in PET. Methods: The experiments were conducted on a cylindrical phantom. Six spheres with different volumes (0.5ml, 1ml, 6ml, 12ml, 16ml and 20 ml) were placed inside a cylindrical container to mimic tumors of different sizes. The spheres were filled with 11C solution as sources and the cylindrical container was filled with 18F-FDG solution as the background. The phantom was continuously scanned in a Biograph-40 True Point/True View PET/CT scanner, and 42 images were reconstructed with source-to-background ratio (SBR) ranging from 16:1 to 1.8:1. We took a large and a small ROI for each sphere, both of which contain the whole sphere and does not contain any other spheres. Six other ROIs of different sizes were then taken between the large and the small ROI. For each ROI, all images were segmented by eitht thresholding methods and eight advanced methods, respectively. The segmentation results were evaluated by dice similarity index (DSI), classification error (CE) and volume error (VE). The robustness of different methods to ROI variation was quantified using the interrun variation and a generalized Cohen's kappa. Results: With the change of ROI, the segmentation results of all tested methods changed more or less. Compared with all advanced methods, thresholding methods were less affected by the ROI change. In addition, most of the thresholding methods got more accurate segmentation results for all sphere sizes. Conclusion: The results showed that the segmentation performance of all tested methods was affected by the change of ROI. Thresholding methods were more robust to this change and they can segment the PET image more accurately. This work was supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC), under Grant Nos. 60971112 and 61375018, and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, under Grant No. 2012QN086. Wei Lu was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant No. R01 CA172638.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-I-100: Heterogeneity Studying for Primary and Lymphoma Tumors by Using Multi-Scale Image Texture Analysis with PET-CT Images

Purpose: The purpose of this research is studying tumor heterogeneity of the primary and lymphoma by using multi-scale texture analysis with PET-CT images, where the tumor heterogeneity is expressed by texture features. Methods: Datasets were collected from 12 lung cancer patients, and both of primary and lymphoma tumors were detected with all these patients. All patients underwent whole-body 18F-FDG PET/CT scan before treatment.The regions of interest (ROI) of primary and lymphoma tumor were contoured by experienced clinical doctors. Then the ROI of primary and lymphoma tumor is extracted automatically by using Matlab software. According to the geometry size of contour structure, the images of tumor are decomposed by multi-scale method.Wavelet transform was performed on ROI structures within images by L layers sampling, and then wavelet sub-bands which have the same size of the original image are obtained. The number of sub-bands is 3L+1.The gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) is calculated within different sub-bands, thenenergy, inertia, correlation and gray in-homogeneity were extracted from GLCM.Finally, heterogeneity statistical analysis was studied for primary and lymphoma tumor using the texture features. Results: Energy, inertia, correlation and gray in-homogeneity are calculated with our experiments for heterogeneity statistical analysis.Energy for primary and lymphomatumor is equal with the same patient, while gray in-homogeneity and inertia of primaryare 2.59595±0.00855, 0.6439±0.0007 respectively. Gray in-homogeneity and inertia of lymphoma are 2.60115±0.00635, 0.64435±0.00055 respectively. The experiments showed that the volume of lymphoma is smaller than primary tumor, but thegray in-homogeneity and inertia were higher than primary tumor with the same patient, and the correlation with lymphoma tumors is zero, while the correlation with primary tumor isslightly strong. Conclusion: This studying showed that there were effective heterogeneity differences between primary and lymphoma tumor by multi-scale image texture analysis. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61201441), Research Fund for Excellent Young and Middle-aged Scientists of Shandong Province (No. BS2012DX038), Project of Shandong Province Higher Educational Science and Technology Program (No. J12LN23), Jinan youth science and technology star (No.20120109)

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SU-E-T-421: Feasibility Study of Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy with Constant Dose Rate for Endometrial Cancer

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility, efficiency, and delivery accuracy of volumetric modulated arc therapy with constant dose rate (VMAT-CDR) for whole-pelvic radiotherapy (WPRT) of endometrial cancer. Methods: The nine-Field intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), VMAT with variable dose-rate (VMAT-VDR), and VMAT-CDR plans were created for 9 patients with endometrial cancer undergoing WPRT. The dose distribution of planning target volume (PTV), organs at risk (OARs), and normal tissue (NT) were compared. The monitor units (MUs) and treatment delivery time were also evaluated. For each VMAT-CDR plan, a dry Run was performed to assess the dosimetric accuracy with MatriXX from IBA. Results: Compared with IMRT, the VMAT-CDR plans delivered a slightly greater V20 of the bowel, bladder, pelvis bone, and NT, but significantly decreased the dose to the high-dose region of the rectum and pelvis bone. The MUs Decreased from 1105 with IMRT to 628 with VMAT-CDR. The delivery time also decreased from 9.5 to 3.2 minutes. The average gamma pass rate was 95.6% at the 3%/3 mm criteria with MatriXX pretreatment verification for 9 patients. Conclusion: VMAT-CDR can achieve comparable plan quality with significant shorter delivery time and smaller number of MUs compared with IMRT for patients with endometrial cancer undergoing WPRT. It can be accurately delivered and be an alternative to IMRT on the linear accelerator without VDR capability. This work is supported by the grant project, National Natural; Science Foundation of China (No. 81071237)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Burden of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality Related to Tobacco Smoking among Adults Aged ≥45 Years in Asia: A Pooled Analysis of 21 Cohorts

Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases. We sought to quantify the burden of tobacco-smoking-related deaths in Asia, in parts of which men's smoking prevalence is among the world's highest. We performed pooled analyses of data from 1,049,929 participants in 21 cohorts in Asia to quantify the risks of total and cause-specific mortality associated with tobacco smoking using adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. We then estimated smoking-related deaths among adults aged ≥45 y in 2004 in Bangladesh, India, mainland China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan—accounting for ~71% of Asia's total population. An approximately 1.44-fold (95% CI = 1.37–1.51) and 1.48-fold (1.38–1.58) elevated risk of death from any cause was found in male and female ever-smokers, respectively. In 2004, active tobacco smoking accounted for approximately 15.8% (95% CI = 14.3%–17.2%) and 3.3% (2.6%–4.0%) of deaths, respectively, in men and women aged ≥45 y in the seven countries/regions combined, with a total number of estimated deaths of ~1,575,500 (95% CI = 1,398,000–1,744,700). Among men, approximately 11.4%, 30.5%, and 19.8% of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Corresponding proportions for East Asian women were 3.7%, 4.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The strongest association with tobacco smoking was found for lung cancer: a 3- to 4-fold elevated risk, accounting for 60.5% and 16.7% of lung cancer deaths, respectively, in Asian men and East Asian women aged ≥45 y. Tobacco smoking is associated with a substantially elevated risk of mortality, accounting for approximately 2 million deaths in adults aged ≥45 y throughout Asia in 2004. It is likely that smoking-related deaths in Asia will continue to rise over the next few decades if no effective smoking control programs are implemented.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: A case study in Asia

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing System Flexibility for High Penetration Renewable Integration

This report summarizes some of the issues discussed during the engagement on power system flexibility. By design, the focus is on flexibility options used in the United States. Exploration of whether and how U.S. experiences can inform Chinese energy planning will be part of the continuing project, and will benefit from the knowledge base provided by this report. We believe the initial stage of collaboration represented in this report has successfully started a process of mutual understanding, helping Chinese researchers to begin evaluating how lessons learned in other countries might translate to China's unique geographic, economic, social, and political contexts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Historical and Current U.S. Strategies for Boosting Distributed Generation

This report seeks to introduce a variety of top-down and bottom-up practices that, in concert with the macro-environment of cost-reduction globally and early adoption in Europe, helped boost the distributed generation photovoltaic market in the United States. These experiences may serve as a reference in China's quest to promote distributed renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advancing System Flexibility for High Penetration Renewable Integration (Chinese Translation)

This is a Chinese translation of NREL/TP-6A20-64864. This report summarizes some of the issues discussed during the engagement on power system flexibility. By design, the focus is on flexibility options used in the United States. Exploration of whether and how U.S. experiences can inform Chinese energy planning will be part of the continuing project, and will benefit from the knowledge base provided by this report. We believe the initial stage of collaboration represented in this report has successfully started a process of mutual understanding, helping Chinese researchers to begin evaluating how lessons learned in other countries might translate to China's unique geographic, economic, social, and political contexts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Historical and Current U.S. Strategies for Boosting Distributed Generation (Chinese Translation)

This is the Chinese translation of NREL/TP-6A20-64843. This report seeks to introduce a variety of top-down and bottom-up practices that, in concert with the macro-environment of cost-reduction globally and early adoption in Europe, helped boost the distributed generation photovoltaic market in the United States. These experiences may serve as a reference in China's quest to promote distributed renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Transmission Challenges and Best Practices for Cost-Effective Renewable Energy Delivery across State and Provincial Boundaries

A strategically planned transmission network is an important source of flexibility for the integration of large-scale renewable energy (RE). Such a network can offer access to a broad geographic diversity of resources, which can reduce flexibility needs and facilitate sharing between neighboring balancing areas. This report builds on two previous NREL technical reports - Advancing System Flexibility for High Penetration Renewable Integration (Milligan et al. 2015) and 'Renewables-Friendly' Grid Development Strategies (Hurlbut et al. 2015) - which discuss various flexibility options and provide an overview of U.S. market models and grid planning. This report focuses on addressing issues with cross-regional/provincial transmission in China with the aim of integrating renewable resources that are concentrated in remote areas and require inter-regional/provincial power exchange.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗