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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Substantial Cooling Effect From Aerosol-Induced Increase in Tropical Marine Cloud Cover

With global warming currently standing at approximately +1.2 °C since preindustrial times, climate change is a pressing global issue. Marine cloud brightening is one proposed method to tackle warming through injecting aerosols into marine clouds to enhance their reflectivity and thereby planetary albedo. However, because it is unclear how aerosols influence clouds, especially cloud cover, both climate projections and the effectiveness of marine cloud brightening remain uncertain. Here, we use satellite observations of volcanic eruptions in Hawaii to quantify the aerosol fingerprint on tropical marine clouds. We observe a large enhancement in reflected sunlight, mainly due to an aerosol-induced increase in cloud cover. This observed strong negative aerosol forcing suggests that the current level of global warming is driven by a weaker net radiative forcing than previously thought, arising from the competing effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols. This implies a greater sensitivity of Earth’s climate to radiative forcing and therefore a larger warming response to both rising greenhouse gas concentrations and reductions in atmospheric aerosols due to air quality measures. However, our findings also indicate that mitigation of global warming via marine cloud brightening is plausible and is most effective in humid and stable conditions in the tropics where solar radiation is strong.

Atmospheric science↗

Observational Constraint on A Feedback From Supercooled Clouds Reduces Projected Warming Uncertainty

The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 ˚C and reduces inter-model spread.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Solar fine scale structures in the corona, transition region, and lower atmosphere

The American Science and Engineering Soft X-ray Imaging Payload and the Naval Research Laboratory High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph (HRTS) were launched from White Sands on 1987 December 11 in coordinated sounding rocket flights. The goal was to investigate the correspondence of fine-scale structures from different temperature regimes in the solar atmosphere, and particularly the relationship between X-ray bright points (XBPs) and transition region explosive events. We present results of the analysis of co-aligned X-ray images, maps of sites of transition region explosive events observed in C IV 10(exp 5), HRTS 1600 A spectroheliograms of the T(sub min) region, and ground-based magnetogram and He I 10830 A images. We examined the relationship of He I 10830 A dark features and evolving magnetic features which correspond to XBPs. We note a frequent double ribbon pattern of the He I dark feature counterparts to XBPs. We discuss an analysis of the relationship of XBPs to evolving magnetic features by Webb et al., which shows that converging magnetic features of opposite polarity are the most significant magnetic field counterparts to XBPs. The magnetic bipolar features associated with XBPs appear as prominent network elements in chromospheric and transition region images. The features in C IV observations corresponding to XBP sites are in general bright, larger scale (approximately 10 arcsec) regions of complex velocity fields of order 40 km/s, which is typical of brighter C IV network elements. These C IV features do not reach the approximately 100 km/s velocities seen in the C IV explosive events. Also, there are many similar C IV bright network features without a corresponding XBP in the X-ray image. The transition region explosive events do not correspond directly to XBPs. The explosive events appear to be concentrated in the quiet Sun at the edges of strong network, or within weaker field strength network regions. We find a greater number of C IV events than expected from the results of a previous Spacelab 2 HRTS disk survey. We attribute this at least partly to better spatial resolution with the newer HRTS data. The full-disk X-ray image shows a pattern of dark lanes in quiet Sun areas. The number density of C IV events is twice as large inside as outside a dark lane (4.6 x 10(exp -3) vs. 2.3 x 10(exp -3) explosive events per arcsec (exp 2)). The dark lane corresponds to an old decaying magnetic neutral line. We suggest that this provides an increased opportunity for small-scale convergence and reconnection of opposite polarity magnetic field features, in analogy with the results of Webb et al. for XBPs but at a reduced scale of reconnection.

Moses, Dan↗

Enhancing Global Food Security: Opportunities for the American Meteorological Society

Food security is a key pillar of environmental security yet remains one of the world’s greatest challenges. Its obverse, food insecurity, negatively impacts health and well-being, drives mass migration, and undermines national security and global sustainable development. Ensuring food security is a delicate balance of myriad concerns within the atmospheric and Earth sciences, agronomy and agriculture engineering, social sciences, economics, monitoring, and policymaking. A Food Security Presidential Session at the American Meteorological Society’s (AMS) 2022 Annual Meeting brought together experts across disciplines to tackle issues at the nexus of weather, climate, and food security. The starkest takeaway was the realization that, despite its importance and clear roles for the atmospheric and climate sciences, food security has not been a focus for the AMS community. The aim of this paper is to build on the perspectives shared by this expert panel and to identify overlapping issues and key points of intersection between the food-security community and AMS. We examine 1) the interactions between weather, climate, and the food system and how they influence food security; 2) the time and spatial scales of food security decision support that match weather and climate phenomena; 3) the role of both providers and users of information as well as decision-makers in improving research to operations for food security; and 4) the opportunities for the AMS community to address food security. We conclude that, moving forward, the AMS community is well-positioned to scale up its engagement across the global food system to address existing scientific needs and technology gaps to improve global food security.

Food security↗

Navigation Challenges in the MAVEN Science Phase

The MAVEN spacecraft will explore Mars' upper atmosphere. The primary science phase will last one (Earth) year, during which the spacecraft will be in an elliptical 4.5 hour orbit at an inclination of 75 degrees. The 75 degree inclination results in the orbit periapsis oscillating between +/-75 degrees latitude, thus naturally covering most Mars latitudes during the primary mission. The orbit will be controlled via maneuvers so that the maximum orbit density remains in a density corridor. This results in the MAVEN science phase being in a light aerobraking type orbit of around 160 km for an extended period. In addition, the mission has significantly less tracking data than aerobraking phases of other missions, and even less than other NASA Mars orbiter primary phases. This results in significant challenges for the Navigation Team. They can be summarized as a difficulty in determining the current density profile, which maps into degraded trajectory predictions and less accurate control over the spacecraft location in the targeted density corridor via maneuvers. This paper describes these challenges and the Navigation Team's plans to meet them.

MAVEN↗

Current and Future ESPO Supported Missions

The Earth Science Project Office (ESPO) at NASA Ames Research Center is a group of success-oriented individuals providing project management for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Earth Science Division. We provide planning, implementation, and post-mission support for large, complex, multi-agency, domestic and international field campaigns. ESPO has led over 60 successful field campaigns, dating back to 1987. ESPO supports several of NASA's Earth Science Division’s programs, including Upper Atmosphere Research, Tropospheric Chemistry, Radiation Sciences, Weather and Atmospheric Dynamics, Ocean Biology and Biochemistry, Airborne Science, and the Earth System Science Pathfinder Program.

Erin Czech↗

Characterization and application of a high-resolution microfluidic device in atmospheric ice nucleation research and integrated science teaching

Ambient ice-nucleating particles (INPs) represent an important subset of aerosol particles that facilitate heterogeneous formation of ice crystals in the atmosphere, which can impact Earth system and energy. In this work, we developed an affordable high-resolution platform to replicate atmospheric immersion freezing through the unique capabilities of microfluidics to measure INP concentration of known ice nucleation active materials, as well as high-latitude soil samples. The new instrument produced comparable and extended freezing efficiency data for a multitude of samples over the temperature range of -5 to -35 °C as compared to an existing freezing assay within known uncertainties. Moreover, the new assay was integrated into science teaching at a primarily undergraduate and Hispanic-serving institute, contributing to fostering a deeper understanding of ice nucleation processes among college students, instilling their enthusiasm for science, and addressing the critical need for a well-informed citizenry. Student research assistants were involved in both research and pedagogical development processes. Three students from our team visited the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to help characterize physicochemical properties of our test samples and to test modeling of atmospheric ice nucleation using a box model as well as a global climate model (E3SM) for the regional-scale conditions over the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Southern Great Plains (SGP). We also assessed student learning experience via hands-on training, research processes, and development of educational materials. On pre- and post-participation surveys and in exit interviews, students reported personal growth as advancements in breadth of experience, research-related skill sets, and regarding their educational and career goals. They also affirmed that the methods enacted incorporated the NASA Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP) STEM Engagement Best Practices.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Galileo orbital tour for the 1986 launch opportunity

The trajectory characteristics of the selected Galileo orbital tour for the May 1986 launch opportunity are presented, and the interplay between tour design and science requirements is discussed. The orbital tour design concepts are summarized, and the research objectives in the areas of magnetospheric science, satellite imaging, observations of the Jupiter atmosphere, and radio science are discussed. Each of the encounter with the moons of Jupiter that would have occurred if the launch opportunity had been utilized are described, giving the dates of the planned encounters. Trajectory pole views and earth views of occultations during encounters are diagrammed.

Longuski, J. M.↗

NASA/Ames Research Center's science and applications aircraft program

NASA-Ames Research Center operates a fleet of seven Science and Applications Aircraft, namely the C-141/Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO), DC-8, C-130, Lear Jet, and three ER-2s. These aircraft are used to satisfy two major objectives, each of equal importance. The first is to acquire remote and in-situ scientific data in astronomy, astrophysics, earth sciences, ocean processes, atmospheric physics, meteorology, materials processing and life sciences. The second major objective is to expedite the development of sensors and their attendant algorithms for ultimate use in space and to simulate from an aircraft, the data to be acquired from spaceborne sensors. NASA-Ames Science and Applications Aircraft are recognized as national and international facilities. They have performed and will continue to perform, operational missions from bases in the United States and worldwide. Historically, twice as many investigators have requested flight time than could be accommodated. This situation remains true today and is expected to increase in the years ahead. A major advantage of the existing fleet of aircraft is their ability to cover a large expanse of the earth's ecosystem from the surface to the lower stratosphere over large distances and time aloft. Their large payload capability allows a number of scientists to use multi-investigator sensor suites to permit simultaneous and complementary data gathering. In-flight changes to the sensors or data systems have greatly reduced the time required to optimize the development of new instruments. It is doubtful that spaceborne systems will ever totally replace the need for airborne science aircraft. The operations philosophy and capabilities exist at NASA-Ames Research Center.

Hall, G. Warren↗

Investigation of Dynamic and Physical Processes in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Research under this Cooperative Agreement has been funded by several NASA Earth Science programs: the Atmospheric Effects of Radiation Program (AEAP), the Upper Atmospheric Research Program (UARP), and most recently the Atmospheric Chemistry and Modeling Assessment Program (ACMAP). The purpose of the AEAP was to understand the impact of the present and future fleets of conventional jet traffic on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, while complementary airborne observations under UARP seek to understand the complex interactions of dynamical and chemical processes that affect the ozone layer. The ACMAP is a more general program of modeling and data analysis in the general area of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, and the Radiation Sciences program.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

Science Highlights and Lessons Learned from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and companion instrument, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the NASA Earth Observing System Aqua spacecraft are facility instruments designed to support measurements of atmospheric temperature, water vapor and a wide range of atmospheric constituents in support of weather forecasting and scientific research in climate and atmospheric chemistry. This paper is an update to the science highlights from a paper by the authors released last year and also looks back at the lessons learned and future needs of the scientific community. These lessons not only include requirements on the measurements, but scientific shortfalls as well. Results from the NASA Science Community Workshop in IR and MW Sounders relating to AIRS and AMSU requirements and concerns are covered and reflect much of what has been learned and what is needed for future atmospheric sounding from Low Earth Orbit.

Atmospheric Composition↗

Atmosphere variability at Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter science orbit altitudes based on Mars Express Reconstructions

This paper describes the orbit reconstruction of Mars Express (MEX) with the specific goal of estimating the atmospheric density near periapsis and evaluating its variability and predictability. The desired outcome is to validate the covariance analysis assumption of atmospheric variability for the 2005 NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), as well as evaluate the accuracy of the density estimates output from the atmosphere model used by MRO. Topics covered include the MRO atmosphere model, MEX orbit determination and post-fit Doppler residuals, and atmosphere trending statistics gleaned from the orbit reconstructions.

Higas, Earl↗