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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

High Spectral Resolution Lidar – Generation 2 (HSRL-2) Retrievals of Ocean Surface Wind Speed: Methodology and Evaluation

Ocean surface wind speed (i.e., wind speed 10 m above sea level) is a critical parameter used by atmospheric models to estimate the state of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). Accurate surface wind speed measurements in diverse locations are required to improve characterization of MABL dynamics and assess how models simulate large-scale phenomena related to climate change and global weather patterns. To provide these measurements, this study introduces and evaluates a new surface wind speed data product from the NASA Langley Research Center nadir-viewing High Spectral Resolution Lidar – generation 2 (HSRL-2) using data collected as part of the NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) mission. The HSRL-2 can directly measure vertically resolved aerosol backscatter and extinction profiles without additional constraints or assumptions, enabling the instrument to accurately derive atmospheric attenuation and directly determine surface reflectance (i.e., surface backscatter). Also, the high horizontal spatial resolution of the HSRL-2 retrievals (0.5 s or ∼ 75 m along track) allows the instrument to probe the fine-scale spatial variability in surface wind speeds over time along the flight track and over breaks in broken cloud fields. A rigorous evaluation of these retrievals is performed by comparing coincident HSRL-2 and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Airborne Vertical Atmosphere Profiling System (AVAPS) dropsonde data, owing to the joint deployment of these two instruments on the ACTIVATE King Air aircraft. These comparisons show correlations of 0.89, slopes of 1.04 and 1.17, and y intercepts of −0.13 and −1.05 m s−1 for linear and bisector regressions, respectively, and the overall accuracy is calculated to be 0.15 ± 1.80 m s−1. It is also shown that the dropsonde surface wind speed data most closely follow the HSRL-2 distribution of wave slope variance using the distribution proposed by Hu et al. (2008) rather than the ones proposed by Cox and Munk (1954) and Wu (1990) for surface wind speeds below 7 m s−1, with this category comprising most of the ACTIVATE data set. The retrievals are then evaluated separately for surface wind speeds below 7 m s−1 and between 7 and 13.3 m s−1 and show that the HSRL-2 retrieves surface wind speeds with a bias of ∼ 0.5 m s−1 and an error of ∼ 1.5 m s−1, a finding not apparent in the cumulative comparisons. Also, it is shown that the HSRL-2 retrievals are more accurate in the summer (−0.18 ± 1.52 m s−1) than in the winter (0.63 ± 2.07 m s−1), but the HSRL-2 is still able to make numerous (N=236) accurate retrievals in the winter. Overall, this study highlights the abilities and assesses the performance of the HSRL-2 surface wind speed retrievals, and it is hoped that further evaluation of these retrievals will be performed using other airborne and satellite data sets.

Sanja Dmitrovic↗
NASA NTRS1998

Two memories for geographical slant: separation and interdependence of action and awareness

The present study extended previous findings of geographical slant perception, in which verbal judgments of the incline of hills were greatly overestimated but motoric (haptic) adjustments were much more accurate. In judging slant from memory following a brief or extended time delay, subjects' verbal judgments were greater than those given when viewing hills. Motoric estimates differed depending on the length of the delay and place of response. With a short delay, motoric adjustments made in the proximity of the hill did not differ from those evoked during perception. When given a longer delay or when taken away from the hill, subjects' motoric responses increased along with the increase in verbal reports. These results suggest two different memorial influences on action. With a short delay at the hill, memory for visual guidance is separate from the explicit memory informing the conscious response. With short or long delays away from the hill, short-term visual guidance memory no longer persists, and both motor and verbal responses are driven by an explicit representation. These results support recent research involving visual guidance from memory, where actions become influenced by conscious awareness, and provide evidence for communication between the "what" and "how" visual processing systems.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗
DOE OSTI2012

The Feynman-Y Statistic in Relation to Shift-Register Neutron Coincidence Counting: Precision and Dead Time

The Feynman-Y statistic is a type of autocorrelation analysis. It is defined as the excess variance-to-mean ratio, Y = VMR - 1, of the number count distribution formed by sampling a pulse train using a series of non-overlapping gates. It is a measure of the degree of correlation present on the pulse train with Y = 0 for Poisson data. In the context of neutron coincidence counting we show that the same information can be obtained from the accidentals histogram acquired using the multiplicity shift-register method, which is currently the common autocorrelation technique applied in nuclear safeguards. In the case of multiplicity shift register analysis however, overlapping gates, either triggered by the incoming pulse stream or by a periodic clock, are used. The overlap introduces additional covariance but does not alter the expectation values. In this paper we discuss, for a particular data set, the relative merit of the Feynman and shift-register methods in terms of both precision and dead time correction. Traditionally the Feynman approach is applied with a relatively long gate width compared to the dieaway time. The main reason for this is so that the gate utilization factor can be taken as unity rather than being treated as a system parameter to be determined at characterization/calibration. But because the random trigger interval gate utilization factor is slow to saturate this procedure requires a gate width many times the effective 1/e dieaway time. In the traditional approach this limits the number of gates that can be fitted into a given assay duration. We empirically show that much shorter gates, similar in width to those used in traditional shift register analysis can be used. Because the way in which the correlated information present on the pulse train is extracted is different for the moments based method of Feynman and the various shift register based approaches, the dead time losses are manifested differently for these two approaches. The resulting estimates for the dead time corrected first and second order reduced factorial moments should be independent of the method however and this allows the respective dead time formalism to be checked. We discuss how to make dead time corrections in both the shift register and the Feynman approaches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reliability estimation of an advanced nuclear fuel using coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel and determining its reliability is critical for the success of advanced nuclear technologies. However, TRISO failure probabilities are small and the associated computational models are expensive. Here we used coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation to estimate the failure probabilities of TRISO fuels using several 1D and 2D models. With multifidelity modeling, we replaced expensive high-fidelity (HF) model evaluations with information fusion from two low-fidelity (LF) models. For the 1D TRISO models, we considered three multifidelity modeling strategies: only Kriging, Kriging LF prediction plus Kriging correction, and deep neural network (DNN) LF prediction plus Kriging correction. While the results across these multifidelity modeling strategies compared satisfactorily, strategies employing information fusion from two LF models called the HF model least often. Next, for the 2D TRISO model, we considered two multifidelity modeling strategies: DNN LF prediction plus Kriging correction (data-driven) and 1D TRISO LF prediction plus Kriging correction (physics-based). The physics-based strategy, as expected, consistently required the fewest calls to the HF model. However, the data-driven strategy had a lower overall simulation time since the DNN predictions are instantaneous, and the 1D TRISO model requires a non-negligible simulation time.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2013

PRIMORDIAL GRAVITATIONAL WAVE DETECTABILITY WITH DEEP SMALL-SKY COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND EXPERIMENTS

We use the Bayesian estimation on direct T - Q - U cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization maps to forecast errors on the tensor-to-scalar power ratio r, and hence on primordial gravitational waves, as a function of sky coverage f{sub sky}. This map-based likelihood filters the information in the pixel-pixel space into the optimal combinations needed for r detection for cut skies, providing enhanced information over a first-step linear separation into a combination of E, B, and mixed modes, and ignoring the latter. With current computational power and for typical resolutions appropriate for r detection, the large matrix inversions required are accurate and fast. Our simulations explore two classes of experiments, with differing bolometric detector numbers, sensitivities, and observational strategies. One is motivated by a long duration balloon experiment like Spider, with pixel noise {proportional_to}{radical}(f{sub sky}) for a specified observing period. This analysis also applies to ground-based array experiments. We find that, in the absence of systematic effects and foregrounds, an experiment with Spider-like noise concentrating on f{sub sky} {approx} 0.02-0.2 could place a 2{sigma}{sub r} Almost-Equal-To 0.014 boundary ({approx}95% confidence level), which rises to 0.02 with an l-dependent foreground residual left over from an assumed efficient component separation. We contrast this with a Planck-like fixed instrumental noise as f{sub sky} varies, which gives a Galaxy-masked (f{sub sky} = 0.75) 2{sigma}{sub r} Almost-Equal-To 0.015, rising to Almost-Equal-To 0.05 with the foreground residuals. Using as the figure of merit the (marginalized) one-dimensional Shannon entropy of r, taken relative to the first 2003 WMAP CMB-only constraint, gives -2.7 bits from the 2012 WMAP9+ACT+SPT+LSS data, and forecasts of -6 bits from Spider (+ Planck); this compares with up to -11 bits for CMBPol, COrE, and PIXIE post-Planck satellites and -13 bits for a perfectly noiseless cosmic variance limited experiment. We thus confirm the wisdom of the current strategy for r detection of deeply probed patches covering the f{sub sky} minimum-error trough with balloon and ground experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Monitoring of Volcanogenic CO2-Induced Tree Kills with AVIRIS Image Data at Mammoth Mountain, California

Elevated cold CO2 emissions from the flank of Mammoth Mountain volcano on the southwest rim of the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California, have been the cause of over 100 acres of dead trees in that area since 1990. The source of the CO2 gas is thought to be from one or more magmatic intrusion(s) beneath Mammoth Mountain and is probably related to a period of seismic unrest that began in 1989. The gas rises to the surface probably from depths of a few kilometers, along faults and fracture zones. The gas is at ambient temperature and diffuses from the soil rather than discharging from distinct vents. Typically, soil gas concentrations in tree-kill areas range from 10% to over 90% CO2 by volume, as compared to normal background of < 1% in healthy forest. The gas composition is predominantly CO2 mixed with air (sulfur gases are not elevated), and C and He isotopic ratios are consistent with a magmatic origin for the gas. The total CO2 emission has been estimated at 1200 tons/day, comparable to the emissions at Kilauea. Some of the dead trees are as old as 250 years, suggesting that similar anomalous gas discharge has not occurred over the previous few hundred years. The delta C-13/12 ratio in the Mammoth Mountain CO2 emission averages about -4.5 (PDB standard). This is consistent with a mantle source for the carbon. However, the large volume of the emission suggests that not all of the CO2 is necessarily being generated from the 1989 intrusion. The voluminous gas could be leaking from a vapor-rich zone, capped by an impermeable layer, that was supplied CO2 from degassing of many small magma bodies that intruded beneath the mountain over a period of decades or centuries. Earthquakes in 1989 could have fractured the capping layer and provided pathways for the escape Of CO2 to the surface. Alternatively, some of the CO2 could be derived from contact metamorphism of carbonate rocks intruded by magma. Carbonate-bearing Paleozoic roof pendents crop out in close proximity to Mammoth Mountain. It is possible that similar rocks could occur at depth beneath Mammoth Mountain, and could have contributed CO2 from thermal decomposition caused from recent intrusions. We hope to determine the C-13/12 ratio of a suite of samples to demonstrate if the carbonate rocks could be the source of at least part of the 1990-97 CO2 emission. To better understand the behavior of the CO2 gas, we have used hyperspectral imagery data of Mammoth Mountain acquired from the Airborne Visual/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) to map out areas of dead trees. The areas of tree kill have increased in size from about 50 acres in 1994 to about 100 acres in 1997. Tree kill is the major surface manifestation of the carbon dioxide flux at Mammoth Mountain, is widely dispersed, and has been cursorily mapped by regular field mapping techniques in the area. Initial investigations using airborne digital imagery from the Thematic Mapper Simulator (NS001) and AVIRIS instruments have shown extremely encouraging results for complete delineation of the vegetation anomalies. The most successful maps (when compared with ground truth) were developed using AVIRIS data with spectral angle mapper and matched filter algorithms with a data set that was reduced to maximum variance via the minimum noise fraction transformation. The result of this work is a series of maps that show the tree kill areas occurring in an halo-pattern surrounding the base of Mammoth Mountain. We are applying these same techniques to earlier AVIRIS images of Mammoth Mountain to examine the progression of the tree kill areas over time. Temporal maps of the tree kill areas may assist in constructing a picture of the structure beneath Mammoth Mountain.

Hausback, Brian P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Affinity and Treatment of LDR Organics in Low Activity Waste by Cementitious Materials – 26109

The physiochemical interactions between organic contaminants, minerals, and polymer additives in grout/cementitious materials are being identified. This research supports a proposed Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) treatment variance relevant to the Land Disposal Restriction (LDR) organics present in Hanford tank waste. It provides the technical basis to address the aspects documented by the Environmental Protection Agency in a draft memo necessary to establish that organics can be immobilized/stabilized in a cementitious matrix. The organic species may interact with cementitious minerals, including slag, fly ash, cement, and other components/dopants like activated carbon. A list of 132 reasonably expected LDR organics associated with Hanford tank waste (RPP-RPT-63493, Rev 1a) was screened by functional groups, octanol-water partitioning coefficients, and detection frequency in Hanford tank waste samples. A subset of 15 compounds spanning the identified properties was tested using sorption and leachate tests. These compounds were subjected to traditional batch sorption tests and leaching tests on/from Cast Stone cementitious material with and without activated carbon (a potential organic adsorption additive). The interactions between organic compounds were observed in traditional batch sorption and modified TCLP leachate tests for surrogate Cast Stone material with and without activated carbon addition. Specifically, phthalic acid (negatively charged) and 4-chloroaniline (polar) sorbed strongly to unmodified Cast Stone, while a group of three phenolic compounds (2,4,6-Trichlorophenol, Pentachlorophenol, o-Cresol) sorbed to and were retained by Cast Stone with a 1% activated carbon amendment. Mixtures of these compounds demonstrated visible retention of the organics within the matrix with a quantifiable affinity of the organics to the cement. This novel testing supports the notion that organics within Hanford tank waste would be retained onto the cement phase with the addition of simple materials easily added to the formulation as part of the treatment process. To further provide additional support to this claim, models employing Flory-Huggins theory in conjunction with macromolecular and organic molecule solubility parameters and species activity coefficients are being utilized to better understand these interactions. Within this context, Van Krevelen (VK) and Hansen organic and polymer solubility parameters were used to inform the Flory-Huggins interaction parameter, allowing for a quantifiable method of evaluating polymer-solvent compatibility and, by extension, interactions with proposed binding additives (e.g., activated carbon). These models and measurement should test the hypothesis for our systems understanding and applicability of Flory-Huggins theory, and whether the prediction of organics in the polymer phase versus the aqueous phase can be confidently made using this strategy. The estimation of the organic molecular activity coefficient in these high salt-saturated aqueous systems is another factor that will be assessed. This project aims to predict and understand complicated organic interactions in these heterogenous systems, guiding optimal treatment and stabilization methodologies.

Jolin, Will [Savannah River National Laboratory (S↗
NASA NTRS2017

Validation of a Manually Oscillating Chair for In-The-Field Assessment of Dynamic Visual Acuity on Crewmembers Within Hours of Returning From Long-Duration Spaceflight

Long-duration spaceflight results in sensorimotor adaptations, which cause functional deficits during gravitational transitions, such as landing on a planetary surface after long-duration microgravity exposure. Both the vestibular system and the central nervous system are affected by gravitational transitions. These systems are responsible for coordinating head and eye movements via the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) and go through an adaptation period upon exposure to microgravity. Consequently, they must also re-adapt to Earth's gravitational environment upon landing. This re-adaptation causes decrements in gaze control and dynamic visual acuity, with crewmembers reporting oscillopsia and blurred vision caused by retinal slip, or the inability to keep an image focused on their retina. This is thought to drive motion sickness symptoms experienced by most crewmembers following landing. Retinal slip can be estimated by dynamic visual acuity (DVA); visual acuity while in motion. Previously, DVA has been assessed in the laboratory where subjects walked at 6.4 km/hr on a motorized treadmill. Using this method, Peters et al. (2011) found that DVA is worsened in astronauts by an average of 0.75 eye-chart lines one day after landing. However, it is believed that re-adaptation occurs quickly and that DVA might be worse immediately upon re-exposure to a gravitational environment. Since many crewmembers are unable to walk safely upon landing, it was necessary to develop a method for replicating the vertical head movements associated with walking. In addition, the use of a chair to imitate the head displacement caused by walking isolates eye-head interactions without allowing for trunk and lower-body compensation, as seen with treadmill walking (Mulavara & Bloomberg 2003). Therefore, a modality for assessing DVA in the field within a few hours of landing was developed. In this study, we validated the ability of a manually operated oscillating chair to reproduce the oscillatory frequency of walking on a treadmill. Healthy non-astronaut subjects (n=14) participated in one test session and completed three static (seated) and three dynamic (walking/oscillated) visual acuity tests. DVA was assessed using a motorized treadmill, an automated oscillating chair, and a manually operated chair, both developed in the Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC. The automated chair was motor-driven and set to oscillate vertically at 2 Hz with a vertical displacement of +/- 5 cm to simulate vertical translation while walking. The manually operated chair was oscillated vertically by a test operator to the beat of a metronome at 120 beats/min (2 Hz) and a vertical displacement of approximately +/- 5 cm. As the subject was oscillated, they were asked to discern the direction gap of Landolt-C optotypes of varying sizes and verbally reported the direction while an operator recorded their response using a gamepad. Subjects were outfitted with accelerometers (sampling rate = 128 Hz) on their head, trunk and lumbar spine. A fast Fourier transform was performed on the vertical trunk acceleration to compare the peak and spread of the distribution of oscillation frequencies for each oscillating condition. The spread of the frequency distribution for the manual chair was not significantly different from either the treadmill or the automated chair. However, all three conditions had similar non-zero standard error values, suggesting a variance in head movement frequency which may affect DVA. The average oscillation frequency of the manual chair (1.85 Hz) was significantly different (α=0.05) from that of treadmill walking (2.24 Hz), but not significantly different from that of the automated chair (1.85 Hz) and all three conditions had small standard errors (SEM = 0.04, 0.06, and 0.08 Hz for manual, treadmill, and automated respectively). This implies that both chairs oscillate at a frequency below that of treadmill walking, but are comparable to each other and reproducible across sessions. Additionally, DVA scores did not vary significantly across conditions. The smaller spread values of the oscillating chairs' frequencies indicated mitigation of variation induced by locomotor strategies, which enables better examination of the issue of VOR adaptation. Furthermore, due to the deconditioned state of crewmembers in the initial hours after landing, it is easier to transport a manual bouncing chair into the field and safer to perform a vision test while seated in a chair versus walking on a treadmill. Therefore, the manually oscillating chair has been deemed to meet and exceed the DVA testing capabilities previously obtained by treadmill walking.

Kreutzberg, G. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Potential Moderating Effects of Selenium on Mercury Uptake and Selenium:Mercury Molar Ratios in Fish From Oak Ridge and Savannah River Site - 12086

Mercury contamination is an important remediation issue at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation and to a lesser extent at other DOE sites because of the hazard it presents, potential consequences to humans and eco-receptors, and completed pathways, to offsite receptors. Recent work has emphasized that selenium might ameliorate the toxicity of mercury, and we examine the selenium:mercury (Se:Hg) molar ratios in fish from Oak Ridge, and compare them to Se:Hg molar ratios in fish from the Savannah River. Selenium/mercury molar ratios varied considerably among and within fish species. There was considerable variation in the molar ratios for individual fish (as opposed to mean ratios by species) for freshwater fish from both sites. The inter-individual variation in molar ratios indicates that such that the molar ratios of mean Se and Hg concentrations may not be representative. Even for fish species with relatively low mercury levels, some individual fish have molar ratios less than unity, the value sometime thought to be protective. Selenium levels varied narrowly regardless of fish size, consistent with homeostatic regulation of this essential trace element. The data indicate that considerable attention will need to be directed toward variations and variances, as well as the mechanisms of the interaction of selenium and mercury, before risk assessment and risk management policies can use this information to manage mercury pollution and risk. Even so, if there are high levels of selenium in the fish from Poplar Creek on Oak Ridge, then the potential exists for some amelioration of adverse health effects, on the fish themselves, predators that eat them, and people who consume them. This work will aid DOE because it will allow managers and scientists to understand another aspect that affects fate and transport of mercury, as well as the potential effects of methylmercury in fish for human and ecological receptors. The variability within fish species, however, suggests that the relative Se:Hg molar ratios in fish are not stable enough to be used in risk assessment at this time. Nor is it known how much excess selenium is required to confer any degree of protectiveness. That is, in conducting risk assessments, it is not possible to determine the spread of ratios, which would be needed for probabilistic risk assessment. Significantly more fish samples per species are required to begin to generate data that would allow it use in risk assessment. Adding Se:Hg molar ratios seems to complicate risk assessment for the potential adverse effects of mercury exposure, and using mercury levels at this time remains the most viable option. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

Gridded Temperature Under prior/current support, we completed and published (Jones et al., 2012) the fourth major update to our global land dataset of near-surface air temperatures, CRUTEM4. This is one of the most widely used records of the climate system, having been updated, maintained and further developed with DoE support since the 1980s. We have continued to update the CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) database that is combined with marine data to produce HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012). The emphasis in our use of station temperature data is to access as many land series that have been homogenized by National Meteorological Services (NMSs, including NCDC/NOAA, Asheville, NC). Unlike the three US groups monitoring surface temperatures in a similar way, we do not infill areas that have no or missing data. We can only infill such regions in CRUTEM4 by accessing more station temperature series. During early 2014, we have begun the extensive task of updating as many of these series as possible using data provided by some NMSs and also through a number of research projects and programs around the world. All the station data used in CRUTEM4 have been available since 2009, but in Osborn and Jones (2014) we have made this more usable using a Google Earth interface (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/ ). We have recently completed the update of our infilled land multi-variable dataset (CRU TS 3.10, Harris et al., 2014). This additionally produces complete land fields (except for the Antarctic) for temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine/cloud. Using this dataset we have calculated sc-PDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) data and compared with other PDSI datasets (Trenberth et al., 2014). Also using CRU TS 3.10 and Reanalysis datasets, we showed no overall increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (Huntingford et al., 2013). Harris et al. (2014) is an update of an earlier dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005) which also had earlier DoE support. The earlier dataset has been cited over 1700 times according to ResearcherID on 31/July/2014 and the recent paper has already been cited 22 times. Analyses of Temperature Data Using the ERA-Interim estimate of the absolute surface air temperature of the Earth (instead of in the more normal form of anomalies) we compared the result against estimates we produced in 1999 with earlier DoE support. The two estimates are surprisingly close (differing by a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius), with the average temperature of the world (for 1981-2010) being very close to 14°C (Jones and Harpham, 2013). We have assessed ERA-Interim against station temperatures from manned and automatic weather station measurements across the Antarctic (Jones and Lister, 2014). Agreement is generally excellent across the Antarctic Peninsula and the sparsely sampled western parts of Antarctica. Differences tend to occur over eastern Antarctica where ERA-Interim is biased warm (up to 6°C) in the interior of the continent and biased cool (up to 6°C) for some of the coastal locations. Opportunities presented themselves during 2012 for collaborative work with a couple of Chinese groups. Three papers develop new temperature series for China as a whole and also for the eastern third of China (Wang et al., 2014, Cao et al., 2013 and Zhao et al., 2014). A dataset of ~400 daily Chinese temperature stations has been added to the CRU datasets. The latter paper finds that urban effects are generally about 10% of the long-term warming trend across eastern China. A fourth paper (Wang et al., 2013) illustrates issues with comparisons between reanalyses and surface temperatures across China, a method that has been widely used by some to suggest urban heating effects are much larger in the region. ERA-Interim can be used but NCEP/NCAR comparisons are very dependent on the period analysed. Earlier a new temperature dataset of homogenized records was developed for China (Li et al., 2009). Urbanization has also been addressed for London (Jones and Lister, 2009) where two rural sites have not warmed more than a city centre site since 1900. Additionally, in Ethymiadis and Jones (2010) we show that land air temperatures agree with marine data around coastal areas, further illustrating that urbanization is not a major component of large-scale surface air temperature change. Early instrumental data (before the development of modern thermometer screens) have always been suspected of being biased warm in summer, due to possible direct exposure to the sun. Two studies (Böhm et al., 2010 and Brunet et al., 2010) show this for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) and for mainland Spain respectively. The issue is important before about 1870 in the GAR and before about 1900 in Spain. After correction for the problems, summer temperature estimates before these dates are cooler by about 0.4°C. In Jones and Wigley (2010), we discussed the importance of the biases in global temperature estimation. Exposure and to a lesser extent urbanization are the most important biases for the land areas, but both are dwarfed by the necessary adjustments for bucket SST measurements before about 1950. Individual station homogeneity is only important at the local scale. This was additionally illustrated by Hawkins and Jones (2013) where we replicated the temperature record developed by Guy Stewart Callendar in papers in 1938 and 1961. Analyses of Daily Climate Data Work here indicates that ERA-Interim (at least in Europe, Cornes and Jones, 2013, discussed in more detail in this proposal) can be used to monitor extremes (using the ETCCDI software – see Zhang et al., 2011). Additionally, also as a result of Chinese collaboration, a new method of daily temperature homogenization has been developed (Li et al., 2014). In Cornes and Jones (2011) we assessed storm activity in the northeast Atlantic region using daily gridded data. Even though the grid resolution is coarse (5° by 5° lat/long) the changes in storm activity are similar to those developed from the pressure triangle approach with station data. Analyses of humidity and pressure data In Simmons et al. (2010) we showed a reduction in relative humidity over low-latitude and mid-latitude land areas for the 10 years to 2008, based on monthly anomalies of surface air temperature and humidity from ECMWF reanalyses (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) and our earlier land-only dataset (CRUTEM3) and synoptic humidity observations (HadCRUH). Updates of this station-based humidity dataset (now called HadISDH) extend the record, showing continued reductions (Willett et al., 2013). Analyses of Proxy Temperature Data In Vinther et al. (2010), relationships between the seasonal stable isotope data from Greenland Ice Cores and Greenland and Icelandic instrumental temperatures were investigated for the past 150-200 years. The winter season stable isotope data are found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and very closely related to SW Greenland temperatures. The summer season stable isotope data display higher correlations with Icelandic summer temperatures and North Atlantic SST conditions than with local SW Greenland temperatures. In Jones et al. (2014) we use these winter isotope reconstructions to show the expected inverse correlation (due to the NAO) with winter-season documentary reconstructions from the Netherlands and Sweden over the last 800 years. Finally, in this section Jones et al. (2013) shows the agreement between tree-ring width measurements from Northern Sweden and Finland and an assessment of the link to explosive volcanic eruptions. An instrumental record for the region in the early 19th century indicates that the summer of 1816 was only slightly below normal, explaining why this year has normal growth for both ring width and density. GCM/RCM/Reanalysis Evaluation In this section we have intercompared daily temperature extremes across Europe in Cornes and Jones (2013) using station data, E-OBS and ERA-Interim. We have additionally considered the impact of the urban issue on the global scale using the results of the Compo et al. (2011) Reanalyses, 20CR. These only make use of SST and station pressure data. Across the world’s land areas, they indicate similar warming since 1900 to that which has occurred (Compo et al., 2013), again illustrating that urbanization is not the cause of the long-term warming. Changes in HadCRUH global land surface specific humidity and CRUTEM3 surface temperatures from 1973 to 1999 were compared to the CMIP3 archive of climate model simulations with 20th Century forcings (Willett et al., 2010). The models reproduce the magnitude of observed interannual variance over all large regions. Observed and modelled trends and temperature-humidity relationships are comparable with the exception of the extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere where observations exhibit no trend but models exhibit moistening.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗