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At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗

An Over-the-Rotor Liner Investigation with Configurations Enabled by Additive Manufacturing

This paper presents the results of an investigation of over-the-rotor acoustic liner configurations enabled by additive manufacturing. NASA Langley and Glenn Research Centers have collaborated on the usage of acoustic liners in the turbofan aircraft engine nacelle wall at or very near the tip of the rotor. These liners absorb rotor-alone and rotor-stator interaction noise and, due to their proximity to the rotor tips, serve as a pressure release to inhibit the amount of generated noise. Initial tests with a metallic foam liner demonstrated good acoustic results, but there was concern regarding the durability of the material. NASA then decided to explore configurations enabled by additive manufacturing via tests in the NASA Langley Normal Incidence Tube. Measured data for uniform-depth and variable-depth cores with narrow and wide chambers were compared with predictions via the NASA Langley impedance prediction model. As these configurations were intended for eventual use in an over-the-rotor application, it was necessary to add facesheets to the wide-chamber cores to avoid deleterious flow effects caused by open cavities. A number of facesheets were tested in combination with each wide-chamber core. Finally, it has been shown that grooves near the rotor tips cause an improvement in aerodynamic performance. A small set of grooves were fabricated such that they could be combined with the wide-chamber configurations. The results of these tests were subsequently used to guide designs for further testing in higher technology readiness level test rigs at NASA Glenn Research Center.

acoustic↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

A computer software system for the generation of global ocean tides including self-gravitation and crustal loading effects

A computer software system is described which computes global numerical solutions of the integro-differential Laplace tidal equations, including dissipation terms and ocean loading and self-gravitation effects, for arbitrary diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituents. The integration algorithm features a successive approximation scheme for the integro-differential system, with time stepping forward differences in the time variable and central differences in spatial variables. Solutions for M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1 tidal constituents neglecting the effects of ocean loading and self-gravitation and a converged M2, solution including ocean loading and self-gravitation effects are presented in the form of cotidal and corange maps.

Estes, R. H.↗

A computer software system for the generation of global ocean tides including self-gravitation and crustal loading effects

A computer software system is described which computes global numerical solutions of the integro-differential Laplace tidal equations, including dissipation terms and ocean loading and self-gravitation effects, for arbitrary diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituents. The integration algorithm features a successive approximation scheme for the integro-differential system, with time stepping forward differences in the time variable and central differences in spatial variables.

Estes, R. H.↗

AOIPS water resources data management system

The text and computer-generated displays used to demonstrate the AOIPS (Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System) water resources data management system are investigated. The system was developed to assist hydrologists in analyzing the physical processes occurring in watersheds. It was designed to alleviate some of the problems encountered while investigating the complex interrelationships of variables such as land-cover type, topography, precipitation, snow melt, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and streamflow rates. The system has an interactive image processing capability and a color video display to display results as they are obtained.

Vanwie, P.↗

The development of methods for the prediction of primary creep behavior in metals

The applicability of a thermodynamic constitutive theory of deformation to the prediction of primary creep and creep strain relaxation behavior in metals is examined. Constitutive equations derived from the theory are subjected to a parametric analysis in order to determine the influence of several parameters on the curve forms generated by the equations. A computer program is developed which enables the solution of a generalized constitutive equation using experimental data as input. Several metals were tested to form a data base of primary creep and relaxation behavior. The extent to which these materials conformed to the constitutive equation showed wide variability, with the alloy Ti-6Al-4V exhibiting the most consistent results. Accordingly, most of the analysis is concentrated upon data from that alloy, although creep and relaxation data from all the materials tested are presented. Experimental methods are outlined as well as some variations in methods of analysis. Various theoretical and practical implications of the work are discussed.

Zerwekh, R. P.↗

Ceramic applications in turbine engines

Ceramic material characterization and testing of ceramic nozzle vanes, turbine tip shrouds, and regenerators disks at 36 C above the baseline engine TIT and the design, analysis, fabrication and development activities are described. The design of ceramic components for the next generation engine to be operated at 2070 F was completed. Coupons simulating the critical 2070 F rotor blade was hot spin tested for failure with sufficient margin to quality sintered silicon nitride and sintered silicon carbide, validating both the attachment design and finite element strength. Progress made in increasing strength, minimizing variability, and developing nondestructive evaluation techniques is reported.

Hudson, M. S.↗

Cognitive competencies - Products of genes, experience, and technology

The paper examines methods used in studying cognitive competency in primates. Citing experiments on teaching language skills to chimpanzees, it is shown that some methods used for inquiry might lead to the cultivation and generation of new competencies, and specifically to the development of observational and relational learning skills. It is noted that methods can also limit the generality of conclusions; erroneous conclusions may be made based on certain generally accepted methods, whereby the research might be treatments that profoundly determine the assessment of dependent variables. Particular attention is given to the role of age in learning, showing that young primates can be taught the meaning of lexigrams and many specific tasks in much shorter time than adults; on the basis of these experiments, it was concluded that cultural gains did evolve primarily as a consequence of context within which infants were growing.

Rumbaugh, Duane M.↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Climate Variability Program

The Annual Report of the Climate Variability Program briefly describes research activities of 40 Principal Investigators who are funded by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Research Division. The report is focused on the year 1998. Utilization of satellite observations is a singularity of research on climate science and technology at JPL. Research at JPL has two foci: generate new knowledge and develop new technology.

Halpern, David↗

Method of Conjugate Radii for Solving Linear and Nonlinear Systems

This paper describes a method to solve a system of N linear equations in N steps. A quadratic form is developed involving the sum of the squares of the residuals of the equations. Equating the quadratic form to a constant yields a surface which is an ellipsoid. For different constants, a family of similar ellipsoids can be generated. Starting at an arbitrary point an orthogonal basis is constructed and the center of the family of similar ellipsoids is found in this basis by a sequence of projections. The coordinates of the center in this basis are the solution of linear system of equations. A quadratic form in N variables requires N projections. That is, the current method is an exact method. It is shown that the sequence of projections is equivalent to a special case of the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization process. The current method enjoys an advantage not shared by the classic Method of Conjugate Gradients. The current method can be extended to nonlinear systems without modification. For nonlinear equations the Method of Conjugate Gradients has to be augmented with a line-search procedure. Results for linear and nonlinear problems are presented.

Nachtsheim, Philip R.↗

The Short-Term Prediction of Universal Time and Length-Of-Day Using Atmospheric Angular Momemtum

Methods to combine the diverse set of geodetic measurements of Earth orientation that are currently available, and to interpolate and extrapolate these data to generate an optimal estimate of Earth orientation, have been under development at JPL for a number of years. The strategy currently in use is a Kalman filtering scheme based on Earth orentation parameters and their excitation functions that incorporates stochastic models of the important physical processes and takes into account the variable form, quality, and temporal density of the data provided by diffent measurement services.

Universal Time↗

Remote Sensing of Tropospheric Pollution from Space

We review the progress of tropospheric trace gas observations and address the need for additional measurement capabilities as recommended by the National Academy of Science (NAS, 2007). Tropospheric measurements from current and earlier instruments show pollution in the Northern Hemisphere as a result of fossil fuel burning and a strong seasonal dependence with the largest amounts of photochemically-generated ozone in summer. At low latitudes, where photon flux is stronger throughout the year, trace gas concentrations are driven by the abundance of the emissions, where the largest source, biomass burning, is readily seen in carbon monoxide measurements, but lightning and biogenic trace gases may also contribute to trace gas variability. Although substantive progress has been achieved in seasonal and global mapping of a few tropospheric trace gases, satellite trace-gas observations with considerably better temporal and spatial resolution are essential to forecasting air quality at scales required by policy-makers. The concurrent use of atmospheric composition measurements for both scientific and operational purposes is a new paradigm for the atmospheric chemistry community. The examples presented illustrate both the promise and challenge of merging satellite information with in situ observations in state-of-the-art data assimilation models.

Fishman, Jack↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Linear Programming and Quadratic Programming Algorithms for Control Allocation

The Next Generation (NextGen) transport aircraft configurations being investigated as part of the NASA Aeronautics Subsonic Fixed Wing Project have more control surfaces, or control effectors, than existing transport aircraft configurations. Conventional flight control is achieved through two symmetric elevators, two antisymmetric ailerons, and a rudder. The five effectors, reduced to three command variables, produce moments along the three main axes of the aircraft and enable the pilot to control the attitude and flight path of the aircraft. The NextGen aircraft will have additional redundant control effectors to control the three moments, creating a situation where the aircraft is over-actuated and where a simple relationship does not exist anymore between the required effector deflections and the desired moments. NextGen flight controllers will incorporate control allocation algorithms to determine the optimal effector commands and attain the desired moments, taking into account the effector limits. Approaches to solving the problem using linear programming and quadratic programming algorithms have been proposed and tested. It is of great interest to understand their relative advantages and disadvantages and how design parameters may affect their properties. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of the effector commands with respect to the desired moments and show on some examples that the solutions provided using the l2 norm of quadratic programming are less sensitive than those using the l1 norm of linear programming.

Frost, Susan A.↗

Next Generation Life Support Project Status

Next Generation Life Support (NGLS) is one of several technology development projects sponsored by NASA s Game Changing Development Program. The NGLS Project is developing life support technologies (including water recovery and space suit life support technologies) needed for humans to live and work productively in space. NGLS has three project tasks: Variable Oxygen Regulator (VOR), Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) swing bed, and Alternative Water Processor (AWP). The RCA swing bed and VOR tasks are directed at key technology needs for the Portable Life Support System (PLSS) for an Advanced Extravehicular Mobility Unit, with focus on test article development and integrated testing in an Advanced PLSS in cooperation with the Advanced Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) Project. An RCA swing-bed provides integrated carbon dioxide removal and humidity control that can be regenerated in real time during an EVA. The VOR technology will significantly increase the number of pressure settings available to the space suit. Current space suit pressure regulators are limited to only two settings whereas the adjustability of the advanced regulator will be nearly continuous. The AWP effort, based on natural biological processes and membrane-based secondary treatment, will result in the development of a system capable of recycling wastewater from sources expected in future exploration missions, including hygiene and laundry water. This paper will provide a status of technology development activities and future plans.

Barta, Daniel J.↗

Fluctuations in Jupiter’s Equatorial Stratospheric Oscillation

The equatorial stratospheres of the Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn all exhibit a remarkable periodic oscillation of their temperatures and winds with height. Earth’s Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Saturn’s Quasi-Periodic Equatorial Oscillation (QPO) have recently been observed to experience disruptions in their vertical structure as a consequence of atmospheric events occurring far from the equator. Here we reveal that Jupiter’s Quasi-Quadrennial Oscillation (QQO) can also be perturbed by strong tropospheric activity at the equatorial and off-equatorial latitudes. Observations of Jupiter’s stratospheric temperatures between 1980 and 2011 show two significantly different periods for the QQO, with a 5.7-year period between 1980 and 1990 and a 3.9-year period between 1996 and 2006. Major disruptions to the predicted QQO pattern in 1992 and 2007 coincided with dramatic planetary-scale disturbances in the equatorial and low-latitude troposphere, suggesting that they are connected to vertically propagating waves generated by meteorological sources in the deeper troposphere (i.e. 500-4000 mbar pressures). Disruptions in Jupiter’s periodic oscillations are thus inherently different than those at Saturn or the Earth. This interconnectivity between the troposphere and stratosphere that is likely common to all planetary atmospheres shows that seemingly regular cycles of variability can switch between different modes when subjected to extreme meteorological events

Arrate Antunano↗

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

Between the years of 1995 and 2014 the number of small satellites (1-500 kg) went up from 20 to 180. [1] Out of the 180 launched in 2014 66% were Nano satellites (1-10 kg). [1] With this trend of smaller satellites, one would expect a rise in number of small launch vehicles (SLVs are defined by capability to carry 1-100 kg to orbit), but this has not happened: [3] only 8% of all small satellites are launched on SLVs and the others become secondary payloads on regular launch vehicles. [1] This results in small satellites being placed into either suboptimal orbits or waiting for launch schedules to align with bigger launches, resulting in long waiting times. Dedicated SLVs could improve the responsiveness of small satellite launches, but SLV design is complicated by the large architecture space needed to be explored in order to find efficient and affordable designs. The SLV architecture trade space contains many discrete options, e.g. solid vs. liquid fuels, air launch vs. ground launch, number of stages, etc. [2][3] Performing detailed analysis for all the options at once would be prohibitive. Thus, a sizing environment/framework that is capable of providing necessary information for conceptual-level trade studies and can rapidly explore the vast SLV architecture space is necessary. The framework, illustrated in Figure 1, consists of four disciplines central to the sizing and synthesis of launch vehicles: propulsion, aerodynamics, structures, and trajectory. For the aerodynamics and trajectory disciplines, Missile DATCOM and POST2 are used, respectively. The propulsion and structures disciplines are represented in the framework with tools developed at ASDL Georgia Tech. For propulsion, the Solid Motor Analysis Code (SMAC) is a physics-based conceptual design tool for solid rocket motors. SMAC is capable of geometric burn simulation, ballistic analysis, and prediction of thrust performance. [4] For structures, Launch Vehicle Structural Analysis (LVSA) tool is a physics-based tool that focuses on structural dynamic analysis with sizing capability. These tools are integrated into the framework illustrated in Figure 1 with the corresponding connections described in Table 1. The process flow is as follows: first, SMAC sizes insulation and calculates maximum operating pressures for each vehicle stage. The MEOP and insulation thickness values from SMAC are fed to LVSA which then utilizes this information to size the motor casing. This creates a feedback loop between LVSA and SMAC that converges on the radius available for fuel, casing, and insulation thickness. Once the stage sizing is converged on SMAC creates an engine deck that is passed to POST2. Next, the data from SMAC and LVSA goes into Missile DATCOM which generates an aerodynamics database for POST2. Finally, POST2 performs a targeting optimization while maximizing the payload mass to orbit. Within the framework, POST2 is automated in order to be robust to a wide variety of possible designs by performing a Monte Carlo simulation over the initialization vector of the POST2 optimization variables. To demonstrate the capability of this framework, a sample problem of exploring the design space of an SLV capable of placing satellites into a low Earth orbit (inclination=47 deg, 196.5 by 211.3 nm) is used. This sample problem is a ground-launched SLV consisting of four in-line SRM stages. The multidisciplinary design analysis (MDA) environment is utilized to explore a design space consisting of 22 continuous and 12 discrete variables, shown by Table 1 by blocks 1,2,3. Running a full factorial design of experiments (DOE) would have been prohibitively expensive even with this reduced design space, thus a space filling design with 3,502 and then additional expansion of 2,602 cases was used. The first DOE consisted of 3,502 cases, and all of the variables were varied. These input variables are listed in blocks 1, 2, and 3 in Table 1. Most of the variables are propulsion related with stage lengths determining the delta-V split of the SLV. The expansion consisted of 2,602 cases, and the continuous variables were set to be equal to the most promising designs from the sizing of first DOE. For each set of continuous variables, the discrete variables (grain type, star points, and propellant) were to varied. The results of the DOE can be seen in Figure 2; each of the points in this plot represents a closed launch vehicle that reaches the targeted orbit. For each of the cases, there is information on flown trajectory, structural, and propulsion properties of the SLV. For example, Figure 3 shows changes in altitude and velocity with time for a particular case. The right side of Figure 3 clearly shows the coasting (slow decrease) and burning phases (sharp increase) of the SLV mission. LV mass is positively correlated with the optimized payload mass to orbit because heavier LVs carry more fuel and thus have more stored chemical energy. Furthermore, for any given payload mass to orbit, the most efficient design would result in the smallest LV. The results as visualized in Figure 2 shows this tradeoff, and the Pareto frontier of the efficient designs can be seen along the dotted line. Figure 2 can be divided into regions with the lowest mass vehicles corresponding to the minimum bound on radius, and the highest mass vehicles corresponding to the maximum bound on radius. Within a mass region, the discrete variables, such as propellant type and propellant grain arrangement, have the most effect on payload mass. This paper presents an MDA framework that can perform an automated physics-based sizing of SLV designs and a corresponding methodology to utilize the MDA to explore the design space of SLVs. The proposed methodology was applied to a perform a design space exploration for a four stage SLV. The outputs show the expected pareto frontier forming and provide detailed information about the SLV performance and staging. Using the produced data, it will be possible to select a set of pareto optimal designs that can then be further explored in subsequent design cycles. This demonstration shows that automated design space exploration should be used in the early phase design of future SLV concepts.

Nikita S Birbasov↗