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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Machine Learning and Geospatial-Sentinel-1 SAR Integration for Enhanced Early Warning Systems

This study presents a comprehensive framework for flood susceptibility mapping by integrating geospatial factors with both statistical and machine learning models. Thirteen Flood-related factors, including DEM, slope, TWI, NDVI, etc., are extracted as features of models, and historical flood data derived from Sentinel-1 SAR from 2018 to 2023 are used as the target variables of the models. These datasets are analyzed using a frequency-based statistical model and three machine learning models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and CNN, to generate flood susceptibility maps. The performance of each model is evaluated through AUC; and SHAP scores are separately generated for Machine learning (ML) models to explain each feature contribution in the ML model. The generated susceptibility maps are validated by high-flood-risk locations monitored by flood sensors, BLE inundation models, and flood-prone areas suggested by the Local Community Task Force. The results indicate that the XGBoost model outperforms all other models, with an AUC of 0.92 and demonstrates the highest alignment with recommended high-flood-risk locations, while the frequency-based statistical model showed the weakest performance with an AUC of 0.65. SHAP value graphs highlight the elevation, slope, and TWI as the most influential features across all models. The susceptibility maps generated by the machine learning model show strong agreement with the BLE map and high-flood-risk areas identified by the local Community Task Force.

Google Engine↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiological Scouting, Monitoring and Inspection Using Drones

Human populations and natural ecosystems are bound to be exposed to ionizing radiation from the deposition of artificial radionuclides resulting from nuclear accidents, nuclear devices or radiological dispersive devices (“dirty bombs”). On the other hand, Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material industries such as phosphate production or uranium mining, contribute to the on site storage of residuals with enhanced concentrations of natural radionuclides. Therefore, in the context of the European agreements concerning nuclear energy, namely the European Atomic Energy Community Treaty, monitoring is an essential feature of the environmental radiological surveillance. In this work, we obtain 3D maps from outdoor scenarios, and complete such maps with measured radiation levels and with its radionuclide signature. In such scenarios, we face challenges such as unknown and rough terrain, limited number of sampled locations and the need for different sensors and therefore different tasks. We propose a radiological solution for scouting, monitoring and inspecting an area of interest, using a fleet of drones and a controlling ground station. First, we scout an area with a Light Detection and Ranging sensor onboard a drone to accurately 3D-map the area. Then, we monitor that area with a Geiger–Müller Counter at a low-vertical distance from the ground to produce a radiological (heat)map that is overlaid on the 3D map of the scenario. Next, we identify the hotspots of radiation, and inspect them in detail using a drone by landing on them, to reveal its radionuclide signature using a Cadmium–Zinc–Telluride detector. We present the algorithms used to implement such tasks both at the ground station and on the drones. The three mission phases were validated using actual experiments in three different outdoor scenarios. We conclude that drones can not only perform the mission efficiently, but in general they are faster and as reliable as personnel on the ground.

Pinto, Luís Ramos (ORCID:0000000319975484)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Propellant Mass Gauging in a Spherical Tank under Micro-Gravity Conditions Using Capacitance Plate Arrays and Machine Learning

Propellant mass gauging under micro-gravity conditions is a challenging task due to the unpredictable position and shape of the fuel body inside the tank. Micro-gravity conditions are common for orbiting satellites and rockets that operate on limited fuel supplies. Capacitance sensors have been investigated for this task in recent years; however, the effect of various positions and shapes of the fuel body is not analyzed in detail. In this paper, we investigate this with various fill types, such as annular, core-annular, and stratified fills at different positions. We compare the performance among several curve-fitting-based approaches and a machine-learning-based approach, the latter of which offers superior performance in estimating the fuel content.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Employing Eye Trackers to Reduce Nuisance Alarms

When process operators anticipate an alarm prior to its annunciation, that alarm loses information value and becomes a nuisance. This study investigated using eye trackers to measure and adjust the salience of alarms with three methods of gaze-based acknowledgement (GBA) of alarms that estimate operator anticipation. When these methods detected possible alarm anticipation, the alarm’s audio and visual salience was reduced. A total of 24 engineering students (male = 14, female = 10) aged between 18 and 45 were recruited to predict alarms and control a process parameter in three scenario types (parameter near threshold, trending, or fluctuating). The study evaluated whether behaviors of the monitored parameter affected how frequently the three GBA methods were utilized and whether reducing alarm salience improved control task performance. The results did not show significant task improvement with any GBA methods (F(3,69) = 1.357, p = 0.263, partial η 2 = 0.056). However, the scenario type affected which GBA method was more utilized (X 2 (2, N = 432) = 30.147, p < 0.001). Alarm prediction hits with gaze-based acknowledgements coincided more frequently than alarm prediction hits without gaze-based acknowledgements (X 2 (1, N = 432) = 23.802, p < 0.001, OR = 3.877, 95% CI 2.25–6.68, p < 0.05). Participant ratings indicated an overall preference for the three GBA methods over a standard alarm design (F(3,63) = 3.745, p = 0.015, partial η 2 = 0.151). This study provides empirical evidence for the potential of eye tracking in alarm management but highlights the need for additional research to increase validity for inferring alarm anticipation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Hybrid Gas–Dust Outbursts Observed at 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko

Cometary outbursts offer a valuable window into the composition of comet nuclei with their forceful ejection of dust and volatiles in explosive events, revealing the interior components of the comet. Understanding how different types of outbursts influence the dust properties and volatile abundances, to better interpret what signatures can be attributed to primordial composition and what features are the result of processing, is an important task best undertaken with a multi-instrument approach. The European Space Agency Rosetta mission to 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko carried a suite of instruments capable of carrying out this task in the near-nucleus coma with unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution. In this work, we discuss two outbursts that occurred 2015 November 7 and were observed by three instruments on board: the Alice ultraviolet spectrograph, the Visual Infrared and Thermal Imaging Spectrometer, and the Optical, Spectroscopic, and Infrared Remote Imaging System. Together, the observations show that mixed gas and dust outbursts can have different spectral signatures representative of their initiating mechanisms, with the first outburst showing indicators of a cliff collapse origin and the second more representative of fresh volatiles being exposed via a deepening fracture. This analysis opens up the possibility of remote spectral classification of cometary outbursts with future work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

What’s the Difference? The Potential for Convolutional Neural Networks for Transient Detection without Template Subtraction

Abstract We present a study of the potential for convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to enable separation of astrophysical transients from image artifacts, a task known as “real–bogus” classification, without requiring a template-subtracted (or difference) image, which requires a computationally expensive process to generate, involving image matching on small spatial scales in large volumes of data. Using data from the Dark Energy Survey, we explore the use of CNNs to (1) automate the real–bogus classification and (2) reduce the computational costs of transient discovery. We compare the efficiency of two CNNs with similar architectures, one that uses “image triplets” (templates, search, and difference image) and one that takes as input the template and search only. We measure the decrease in efficiency associated with the loss of information in input, finding that the testing accuracy is reduced from ∼96% to ∼91.1%. We further investigate how the latter model learns the required information from the template and search by exploring the saliency maps. Our work (1) confirms that CNNs are excellent models for real–bogus classification that rely exclusively on the imaging data and require no feature engineering task and (2) demonstrates that high-accuracy (>90%) models can be built without the need to construct difference images, but some accuracy is lost. Because, once trained, neural networks can generate predictions at minimal computational costs, we argue that future implementations of this methodology could dramatically reduce the computational costs in the detection of transients in synoptic surveys like Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time by bypassing the difference image analysis entirely.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-supervised Representation Learning for Astronomical Images

Sky surveys are the largest data generators in astronomy, making automated tools for extracting meaningful scientific information an absolute necessity. We show that, without the need for labels, self-supervised learning recovers representations of sky survey images that are semantically useful for a variety of scientific tasks. These representations can be directly used as features, or fine-tuned, to outperform supervised methods trained only on labeled data. We apply a contrastive learning framework on multiband galaxy photometry from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), to learn image representations. We then use them for galaxy morphology classification and fine-tune them for photometric redshift estimation, using labels from the Galaxy Zoo 2 data set and SDSS spectroscopy. In both downstream tasks, using the same learned representations, we outperform the supervised state-of-the-art results, and we show that our approach can achieve the accuracy of supervised models while using 2-4 times fewer labels for training. The codes, trained models, and data can be found at https://portal.nersc.gov/project/dasrepo/self-supervised-learning-sdss.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

International Collaboration Framework for the Calculation of Performance Loss Rates: Data Quality, Benchmarks, and Trends

Within the IEA PVPS Task 13, a group of experts representing several leading R&D centres, universities and industry companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of Performance Loss Rates (PLR) on a large number of commercial and research PV power plants and related weather data coming from various climatic zones. Various methodologies are applied for the calculation of PLR which are benchmarked in terms of uncertainties and 'true' values. The aim of the international collaboration is to show how to calculate the PLR on high quality (high time resolution, reliable data, irradiance, yield, etc.) and on low quality data (low time resolution, only energy data available). Various algorithms and models, along with different time averaging and filtering criteria, can be applied for the calculation of PLR each of which can have an impact on the results. The approach considers three pathways to ensure broad collaboration and increase the statistical relevance of the study: i) use of shared methodologies on shared time series, ii) use of confidential methodologies on shared time series, iii) use of shared methodologies on confidential time series. The data is used for benchmarking activities and to define which methodologies clusters around a 'true value' of PLR. The combination of metrics (PR or power based) and methodologies are benchmarked in terms of deviation from the average value and in terms of standard deviation. The combination of temperature corrected PR with the use of Year on Year (YOY) or Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) performs well for all systems; other methodologies seems to be more depending on the filtering applied. Another set of data is represented by the IEA PVPS Task 13 'PV performance database' which includes more than 120 PV plants from different climates. The applied methodologies were STL and the YoY approach. STL results in an averaged PLR over all systems of -0.78%/a while YoY yields -0.63%/a. STL is better suited if the time series data are of higher resolution and high-quality weather data are available. One important outcome of this study is the setting of a framework for the contribution to a clear and structured quality classification for PV time series data and a guideline for PLR calculations in dependency of the data categorization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

PRMI: A Dataset of Minirhizotron Images for Diverse Plant Root Study

Understanding a plant's root system architecture (RSA) is crucial for a variety of plant science problem domains including sustainability and climate adaptation. Minirhizotron (MR) technology is a widely-used approach for phenotyping RSA non-destructively by capturing root imagery over time. Precisely segmenting roots from the soil in MR imagery is a critical step in studying RSA features. In this paper, we introduce a large-scale dataset of plant root images captured by MR technology. In total, there are over 72K RGB root images across six different species including cotton, papaya, peanut, sesame, sunflower, and switchgrass in the dataset. The images span a variety of conditions including varied root age, root structures, soil types, and depths under the soil surface. All of the images have been annotated with weak image-level labels indicating whether each image contains roots or not. The image-level labels can be used to support weakly supervised learning in plant root segmentation tasks. In addition, 63K images have been manually annotated to generate pixel-level binary masks indicating whether each pixel corresponds to root or not. These pixel-level binary masks can be used as ground truth for supervised learning in semantic segmentation tasks. By introducing this dataset, we aim to facilitate the automatic segmentation of roots and the research of RSA with deep learning and other image analysis algorithms.

Xu, Weihuang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Holographic pseudoentanglement and the complexity of the AdS/CFT dictionary

The `quantum gravity in the lab' paradigm suggests that quantum computers might shed light on quantum gravity by simulating the CFT side of the AdS/CFT correspondence and mapping the results to the AdS side. This relies on the assumption that the duality map (the `dictionary') is efficient to compute. In this work, we show that the complexity of the AdS/CFT dictionary is surprisingly subtle: there might be cases in which one can efficiently apply operators to the CFT state (a task we call 'operator reconstruction') without being able to extract basic properties of the dual bulk state such as its geometry (which we call 'geometry reconstruction'). Geometry reconstruction corresponds to the setting where we want to extract properties of a completely unknown bulk dual from a simulated CFT boundary state. We demonstrate that geometry reconstruction may be generically hard due to the connection between geometry and entanglement in holography. In particular we construct ensembles of states whose entanglement approximately obey the Ryu-Takayanagi formula for arbitrary geometries, but which are nevertheless computationally indistinguishable. This suggests that even for states with the special entanglement structure of holographic CFT states, geometry reconstruction might be hard. This result should be compared with existing evidence that operator reconstruction is generically easy in AdS/CFT. A useful analogy for the difference between these two tasks is quantum fully homomorphic encryption (FHE): this encrypts quantum states in such a way that no efficient adversary can learn properties of the state, but operators can be applied efficiently to the encrypted state. We show that quantum FHE can separate the complexity of geometry reconstruction vs operator reconstruction, which raises the question whether FHE could be a useful lens through which to view AdS/CFT.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions

Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration in disposal research: comparative modeling of coupled processes in the DECOVALEX project

Abstract. This presentation gives an overview of an international research collaboration for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. The creation of the international DECOVALEX project, now running for more than 25 years, was motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. DECOVALEX emphasizes joint analysis and comparative modeling of state-of-the-art field and laboratory experiments, across a range of host rock options and repository designs. Participating research teams are from radioactive waste management organizations, national research institutes, regulatory agencies, universities, and consulting groups, providing a wide range of perspectives and solutions to these complex problems. The presentation provides examples of the research contributions made collectively in past DECOVALEX tasks and also touches on the unique modeling challenges tackled in the ongoing project phase, referred to as DECOVALEX-2023. The current phase comprises 17 partner organizations, about 50 modeling teams, and 7 modeling tasks, which cover a broad portfolio from fundamental studies on gas migration to full-scale in situ heater experiments in different host rocks to performance assessment studies. Together, these examples illustrate that the insight and scientific knowledge gained within the DECOVALEX project would not have been possible if one group had studied these complex THMC modeling challenges alone rather than within a truly collaborative setting.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Progress in the validation of rotor aerodynamic codes using field data

Within the framework of the fourth phase of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 29, a large comparison exercise between measurements and aeroelastic simulations has been carried out featuring three simulation cases in axial, sheared and yawed inflow conditions. Results were obtained from more than 19 simulation tools originating from 12 institutes, ranging in fidelity from blade element momentum (BEM) to computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) and compared to state-of-the-art field measurements from the 2 MW DanAero turbine. More than 15 different variable types ranging from lifting-line variables to blade surface pressures, loads and velocities have been compared for the different conditions, resulting in over 250 comparison plots. The result is a unique insight into the current status and accuracy of rotor aerodynamic modeling. For axial flow conditions, a good agreement was found between the various code types, where a dedicated grid sensitivity study was necessary for the CFD simulations. However, compared to wind tunnel experiments on rotors featuring controlled conditions, it remains a challenge to achieve good agreement of absolute levels between simulations and measurements in the field. For sheared inflow conditions, uncertainties due to rotational and unsteady effects on airfoil data result in the CFD predictions standing out above the codes that need input of sectional airfoil data. However, it was demonstrated that using CFD-synthesized airfoil data is an effective means to bypass this shortcoming. For yawed flow conditions, it was observed that modeling of the skewed wake effect is still problematic for BEM codes where CFD and free vortex wake codes inherently model the underlying physics correctly. The next step is a comparison in turbulent inflow conditions, which is featured in IEA Wind Task 47. Doing this analysis in cooperation under the auspices of the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Program (TCP) has led to many mutual benefits for the participants. The large size of the consortium brought ample manpower for the analysis where the learning process by combining several complementary experiences and modeling techniques gave valuable insights that could not be found when the analysis is carried out individually.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Screening and Brief Interventions for Alcohol Use During Pregnancy: Practices Among US Primary Care Clinicians, DocStyles 2019

Alcohol use during pregnancy can cause birth defects and developmental disabilities. From 2018 through 2020, 13.5% of pregnant women reported current drinking. The US Preventive Services Task Force recommends evidence-based tools (eg, AUDIT-C and SASQ) for implementing screening and brief interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use among adults, including pregnant people, for whom any alcohol use is considered excessive. We used DocStyles 2019 data to conduct a cross-sectional analysis to examine current screening and brief intervention practices that primary care clinicians conduct among pregnant patients; clinicians’ confidence levels in conducting screening, brief interventions, and referral to treatment; and the documentation of brief interventions in the medical record. A total of 1,500 US adult medicine clinicians completed the entire survey. Among the respondents who conduct screening (N = 1,373) and brief interventions (N = 1,357) in their practice, nearly all reported implementing screening (94.6%) and brief interventions (94.9%) with their pregnant patients for alcohol use, but fewer than half felt confident about conducting their screening practices (46.5%). Two-thirds (64%) reported using a tool that met the criteria recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). Over half documented brief interventions in electronic health record notes (51.7%) or designated space (50.7%). Pregnancy presents a unique opportunity for clinicians to incorporate screening into routine obstetric care and encourage behavior change among patients. Most providers reported always screening their pregnant patients for alcohol use, but fewer used evidence-based USPSTF-recommended screening tools. Increased clinician confidence in screening and brief intervention, the use of standardized screening tools tailored to pregnant people, and maximal use of electronic health record technology may enhance the benefits of their application to alcohol use, which ultimately can reduce adverse outcomes associated with alcohol use during pregnancy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Test and Evaluation of Systems with Embedded Machine Learning Components

As Machine Learning (ML) continues to advance, it is being integrated into more systems. Often, the ML component represents a significant portion of the system that reduces the burden on the end user or significantly improves task performance. However, the ML component represents an unknown complex phenomenon that is learned from collected data without the need to be explicitly programmed. Despite the improvement in task performance, the models are often black boxes. Evaluating the credibility and the vulnerabilities of ML models poses a gap in current test and evaluation practice. For high consequence applications, the lack of testing and evaluation procedures represents a significant source of uncertainty and risk. To help reduce that risk, here we present considerations to evaluate systems embedded with an ML component within a red-teaming inspired methodology. We focus on (1) cyber vulnerabilities to an ML model, (2) evaluating performance gaps, and (3) adversarial ML vulnerabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Effect of Information Organization on Cognitive Workload and Visual Search Performance

This study examined the relationship between how visual information is organized and people’s visual search performance. Specifically, we systematically varied how visual search information was organized (from well-organized to disorganized), and then asked participants to perform a visual search task involving finding and identifying a number of visual targets within the field of visual non-targets. We hypothesized that the visual search task would be easier when the information was well-organized versus when it was disorganized. We further speculated that visual search performance would be mediated by cognitive workload, and that the results could be generally described by the well-established speed-accuracy tradeoff phenomenon. This paper presents the details of the study we designed and our results.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗